A frozen disaster dynamic comprehensive risk research and early warning method

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of frozen disaster dynamic comprehensive risk research and early warning method, it is related to highway traffic disaster prevention and control technical field, including obtaining the real-time monitoring data of frozen disaster in 12 hours in monitoring area;Real-time monitoring data is matched with early warning grade division standard, and the risk grade of frozen disaster in monitoring area is researched and judged;Based on the risk grade research result, the highway network characteristics of monitoring area, the reserve base number of deicing and snow-removing equipment and materials are combined to generate the deicing and snow-removing material distribution basic scheme of frozen disaster;Combined with the preset path optimization algorithm, the material allocation and optimal transportation route of provincial and county-level reserve center are determined;The optimized material distribution scheme is issued to the corresponding provincial and county-level reserve center, and the reserve center executes material allocation and transportation according to the scheme.The application realizes the dynamic and accurate research of frozen disaster risk, and improves the scientificity and timeliness of material distribution.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of highway traffic disaster prevention and control technology, and more specifically, to a method for dynamic comprehensive risk assessment and early warning of freezing disasters. Background Technology

[0002] Southern regions, such as Hunan Province, experience winter freezing weather characterized by complex rain and snow phases, prolonged freezing periods, widespread freezing rain coverage, and large cumulative precipitation, making it one of the provinces in my country most severely affected by freezing disasters. Freezing disasters easily cause icing and snow accumulation on road surfaces, obstructing traffic on highways, national and provincial roads, and rural roads, severely impacting road traffic safety and road network efficiency.

[0003] Shortcomings of existing technology: First, the risk assessment of freezing disasters relies heavily on general early warnings from meteorological departments, lacking precise and dynamic monitoring and assessment of the road network. The timeliness and specificity of monitoring data are insufficient, making it difficult to match the actual prevention and control needs of road de-icing and snow removal. Second, disaster early warnings are disconnected from material transportation. Early warning information can only reflect the disaster level and cannot be directly translated into targeted material transportation plans. Third, the allocation of materials by provincial and county-level reserve centers lacks clear hierarchical rules, and the planning of transportation routes does not fully consider the impact of road ice and snow on traffic, resulting in low material transportation efficiency, unreasonable routes, and the inability to complete the replenishment of materials and road clearing in the affected areas in the shortest possible time. Fourth, the material allocation process lacks dynamic closed-loop management, making it impossible to provide real-time feedback on the execution status and to adjust the allocation plan in a timely manner according to the development of the disaster.

[0004] To address the above problems, this invention proposes a solution. Summary of the Invention

[0005] To overcome the aforementioned deficiencies of the prior art, embodiments of the present invention provide a method for dynamic comprehensive risk assessment and early warning of freezing disasters, which solves the problems mentioned in the background art by automatically generating a road de-icing material allocation scheme for extreme freezing weather.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides the following technical solution: A method for dynamic comprehensive risk assessment and early warning of freezing disasters includes the following steps: S1. Establish an early warning system for freezing disasters, build a monitoring network for freezing disasters, acquire real-time monitoring data of freezing disasters within the monitoring area within 12 hours through meteorological sensors, and conduct risk level assessment based on the classification standards for freezing disaster early warning levels. When the monitoring area reaches a certain early warning level, generate corresponding disaster early warning information and release it. S2. Based on the risk level assessment results, combined with the characteristics of the highway network in the monitoring area and the reserve of de-icing and snow removal equipment and materials, generate a basic plan for the transportation of de-icing and snow removal materials for ice and freezing disasters. S3. Establish a reserve system for provincial and county-level reserve centers, and optimize the basic material transportation plan by combining the preset path optimization algorithm to determine the material allocation volume and optimal transportation route for provincial and county-level reserve centers. S4. The optimized material allocation plan is issued to the corresponding provincial and county-level reserve centers. The reserve centers carry out material allocation and transportation according to the plan, and at the same time provide real-time feedback on the material allocation execution status to achieve dynamic closed-loop management of ice disaster prevention and control.

[0007] In a preferred embodiment, the ice disaster monitoring data in S1 includes: snowfall, road surface icing thickness, freezing rain duration, and the percentage of mileage on roads prone to icing.

[0008] In a preferred embodiment, the criteria for classifying the early warning level of freezing disasters in S1 include: The classification standard for freezing disaster warning levels is based on the freezing disaster monitoring data in S1 to assess the severity and impact range of low-temperature rain, snow and freezing disasters. The warning levels are divided into four levels: Level IV, Level III, Level II and Level I. The specific classification standards are as follows: ; In the formula, C is the intensity value of freezing disaster; j is the summation index; floor() is the floor function; y1 is the actual snowfall; y2 is the actual road surface icing thickness; y3 is the actual duration of freezing rain; y4 is the percentage of mileage prone to icing; y , 1 represents the preset threshold for snowfall, set to 2cm; y , 2 represents the preset threshold for actual road surface icing thickness, taken as 1 cm; y , 3 is a preset threshold for the actual duration of freezing rain, set to 2 hours; y , 4 represents the preset threshold for the percentage of mileage prone to icing, set at 10%. The risk level assessment method is as follows: If C=4, it is a Level I freezing disaster warning; If C=3, it is a Level II freezing disaster warning; If C=2, it is a Level III freezing disaster warning; If C=1, it indicates a Level IV freezing disaster warning; If C=0, then no warning is needed at present.

[0009] In a preferred embodiment, the basic process for transporting de-icing and snow removal materials for ice and ice disasters in step S2 includes: Calculate the basic configuration quantities of various equipment and materials, and then, based on the risk level assessment results of freezing disasters in S1, calculate the total demand for various equipment and materials in the monitoring area, the available materials in the reserve center, and the material shortage according to the different configuration standards for de-icing and snow removal equipment and materials corresponding to different risk levels. Combine this with the preliminary direction of material allocation to generate a basic material transportation plan. The specific formulas for calculating the basic configuration quantities of various equipment and supplies are as follows: Snowplow required : ; in The total area for snow removal operations. To provide the working width for snowplows. To accelerate, This is the utilization coefficient of the shovel width. To specify the completion time, K is the working time utilization coefficient; De-icing agent spreader required quantity : ; in For the total area of ​​the sowing operation, For the width of the sowing operation, For driving speed, This is the effective width coefficient for sowing. To specify the completion time, K is the working time utilization coefficient; Snow removal roller brush required : ; in Let f be the total area of ​​snow removal operations, and f be the snow removal capacity of the snowplow. To specify the completion time, K is the working time utilization coefficient; De-icing equipment required : ; in This represents the total area of ​​the ice-breaking operation. The working width of the icebreaker. To accelerate, This is the utilization coefficient of the shovel width. To specify the completion time, K is the working time utilization coefficient; The road network data of the monitoring area was extracted, including the total mileage of expressways, the total mileage of ordinary national and provincial highways, and the total mileage of rural roads. At the same time, based on the road network level, traffic function importance and the priority of ensuring smooth traffic in the prevention and control of freezing disasters, and combined with the traffic value and emergency prevention and control needs of different types of roads in the monitoring area, expressways, special structure bridges and national and provincial trunk roads were classified as first-level protection areas, ordinary national and provincial branch roads were classified as second-level protection areas, and rural roads were classified as third-level protection areas. Extract the base amount of de-icing and snow removal equipment and materials reserves of all provincial and county-level reserve centers within the monitoring area, and at the same time, count the amount of materials that can be allocated by each reserve center to form a ledger of materials that can be allocated by the reserve centers. Calculate the total demand for various equipment and materials in the monitoring area, categorized by highway grade, and then add the risk level escalation factor. The formula is as follows: ; In the formula This refers to the total demand for a certain type of material within the monitored area. This is a risk level escalation factor; For the mileage of a highway of a certain grade, For highways, It is a regular highway; This refers to the basic allocation of this type of material per 100km of a highway of a certain grade; Number of highway grades; Material needs will be allocated according to the coverage area, based on the mileage ratio of Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3 coverage areas. The formula for splitting the data into various protection zones is as follows: ; In the formula The total amount of supplies needed in a certain area. Level 1 Level 2 Level 3; The proportion of supplies allocated to each support area; Based on the reserve base, the material shortage is determined. By comparing the available material resources of each reserve center with the total material demand in the monitored area, the shortage of various types of equipment and materials is calculated using the following formula: ; In the formula For the shortage quantity of a certain type of material, if Then take (No gap); To monitor the sum of the available quantities of this type of material across all reserve centers within the region; Based on the total demand in the monitored area, the available resources in the reserve center, and the shortage of resources, a basic plan for the transportation of resources is generated in conjunction with the initial direction of resource allocation.

[0010] In a preferred embodiment, the process of establishing a reserve system of provincial and county-level reserve centers in S3 is as follows: A two-tiered reserve system will be established to form a hierarchical material reserve and allocation mechanism. Provincial reserve centers will serve as regional emergency supply centers, storing large-scale specialized snow and ice removal equipment and bulk consumables, including hot air snow removal vehicles, thick ice breaking vehicles, multi-functional snow and ice removal vehicles, large quantities of snow melting agents, and anti-skid materials. They will be responsible for cross-regional material allocation and gap replenishment. The county-level reserve center serves as the front-line execution reserve center, storing commonly used equipment and daily consumables, including snow melting agent spreader trucks, snowplows, snow removal rollers, snow melting agents, and anti-skid materials, and is responsible for the rapid allocation and on-site delivery of materials within its jurisdiction; Provincial-level reserve centers shall allocate materials based on the coverage of Level II or above early warning systems across the entire province, while county-level reserve centers shall allocate materials based on the coverage of Level III or above early warning systems within their jurisdictions. The allocation entities are divided according to risk level, and the proportion of material allocation responsibility of provincial and county-level reserve centers under each level is clearly defined. The formula for calculating the basic allocation volume of provincial and county-level reserve centers is as follows: ; ; In the formula This serves as the basic allocation volume for provincial-level reserve centers; This serves as the basic allocation for county-level reserve centers; , The allocation responsibility ratio for provincial and county reserve centers, and .

[0011] In a preferred embodiment, the process of optimizing the basic material transportation plan in S3 to determine the material allocation volume and optimal transportation route for provincial and county-level reserve centers is as follows: The improved Dijkstra algorithm is pre-defined as a path optimization algorithm, with the goal of minimizing transportation time. Dijkstra's algorithm is a shortest path algorithm from one vertex to all other vertices, used to solve the shortest path problem in a weighted graph. The algorithm's input parameters are the latitude and longitude coordinates of the reserve center and the material distribution points in the support area, the topology of the highway network, and the basic driving speed of the transport vehicles. Road icing and snow impact coefficient Take 0.4-0.6; Considering the impact of icy and snowy weather on road traffic, based on the road icing and snow impact coefficient... After adjusting the travel speed, the actual transport time for each route is calculated, and the route with the shortest transport time from the origin to the destination is selected as the optimal transport route. The algorithm's constraints are that it only selects routes from roads that have been cleared or are passable, and the ice thickness... Furthermore, sections of road that have not yet been cleared must not be included in the route plan; priority should be given to high-grade highways; and the amount of goods transported on a single route must not exceed the approved load capacity of the transport vehicle.

[0012] In a preferred embodiment, the process of issuing the optimized material transportation plan to the corresponding provincial and county-level reserve centers in step S4 is as follows: The optimized material transportation plan was distributed to the corresponding provincial and county-level reserve centers. Provincial-level reserve centers receive allocation plans coordinated across the province, while county-level reserve centers receive specific implementation plans within their jurisdictions. The plan was issued along with execution instructions, specifying the material release time, loading completion time, and departure time for each reserve center.

[0013] In a preferred embodiment, the reserve center in step S4 executes material allocation and transportation according to the plan, while simultaneously providing real-time feedback on the material allocation execution status, thus realizing a dynamic closed-loop management process for ice disaster prevention and control as follows: After receiving the allocation plan, provincial and county-level reserve centers shall carry out the allocation and transportation operations in accordance with the allocation quantity, allocation order, time nodes, and transportation routes specified in the plan. Materials are issued according to the batches, types, and quantities required by the plan; equipment is debugged on-site; and consumables are packaged in a standardized manner. After loading is completed, loading information is entered into the cloud platform. The transport vehicles travel along the optimal transport route in the plan and upload their location, speed and status in real time. If an emergency occurs during transport, it is necessary to report to the reserve center and the prevention and control cloud platform immediately, and the cloud platform will call the improved Dijkstra algorithm to plan a new optimal route. After the supplies arrive at the designated delivery point in the support area, the on-site highway maintenance unit will conduct an on-site inspection to verify the type, quantity, and equipment status of the supplies. If the inspection is successful, the unit will sign the "Supply Acceptance Form" on the cloud platform. If the inspection fails, the reserve center will immediately reissue the supplies. Real-time feedback on the status of material allocation and execution; establishing a full-process, real-time feedback mechanism for the status of material allocation and execution; feedback content covering all stages from warehousing, loading, transportation, arrival, and acceptance; achieving dynamic closed-loop management of ice and freezing disaster prevention and control.

[0014] The technical effects and advantages of the present invention, a method for dynamic comprehensive risk assessment and early warning of freezing disasters: 1. This invention establishes a meteorological sensor monitoring network for highway networks to accurately collect real-time data on freezing disasters within 12 hours, enabling dynamic and precise assessment of freezing disaster risks. The warning level classification standard is adapted to the characteristics of low-temperature rain, snow, and freezing climates in southern China, solving the problem of mismatch between existing general warning systems and highway prevention and control needs, and improving the targeting and effectiveness of warnings. The risk assessment results are directly linked to material transportation plans, and targeted basic material transportation plans are generated through big data analysis, clarifying the types, quantities, and priorities of material needs in affected areas. This achieves effective connection between warning information and prevention and control implementation, avoiding the problem of a disconnect between warnings and actual prevention and control.

[0015] 2. This invention establishes hierarchical allocation rules for provincial and county-level reserve centers, and divides allocation responsibilities according to disaster risk levels, achieving coordinated allocation of reserve resources at the provincial and county levels. Simultaneously, it introduces an improved Dijkstra algorithm to optimize transportation routes, fully considering the impact of road ice and snow on traffic, ensuring optimal transportation routes and shortest transportation times, thus improving the efficiency and scientific nature of material transportation. It achieves dynamic closed-loop management for ice disaster prevention and control, collecting real-time data on material allocation execution status, and supporting dynamic adjustments to transportation plans based on disaster development, ensuring that material allocation always aligns with the actual needs of ice disaster prevention and control, enabling the replenishment of materials to affected areas in the shortest possible time, and guaranteeing the smooth operation of the highway network. The method of this invention is applicable to highway traffic disaster prevention and control in rainy, snowy, and freezing areas in southern China, and can be directly applied to provincial and county-level transportation authorities and highway maintenance units. It provides a standardized and intelligent technical solution for highway de-icing and snow removal work under ice disasters, improving the regional highway traffic disaster prevention and control capabilities and the road network operation service level. Attached Figure Description

[0016] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of the process for a dynamic comprehensive risk assessment and early warning method for freezing disasters according to the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0017] The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0018] Example 1, Figure 1 This invention presents a method for dynamic comprehensive risk assessment and early warning of freezing disasters.

[0019] S1. Establish an early warning system for freezing disasters, build a monitoring network for freezing disasters, acquire real-time monitoring data of freezing disasters within the monitoring area within 12 hours through meteorological sensors, and conduct risk level assessment based on the classification standards for freezing disaster early warning levels. When the monitoring area reaches a certain early warning level, generate corresponding disaster early warning information and release it. Based on the characteristics of the highway network in southern China, meteorological sensors are deployed at key locations such as expressways, ordinary national and provincial highways prone to icing, special structure bridges (such as large steel structure bridges and high bridges in mountainous areas), long and steep slopes, and dangerous mountain road sections to establish a comprehensive and accurate ice disaster monitoring network. The meteorological sensors collect ice disaster-related data in real time within the monitoring area for 12 hours, with a collection frequency of 5-15 minutes per collection. The collected data includes snowfall, road surface icing thickness, freezing rain duration, and the proportion of icy road sections. After collection, the raw data undergoes automatic anomaly verification (invalid data caused by sensor malfunctions and signal interference are removed, and missing data is supplemented using interpolation). The final valid data uploaded to the prevention and control cloud platform is 12 hours of continuous, complete, and anomaly-free real-time monitoring data of ice disasters, providing basic data for risk assessment.

[0020] A pre-defined standard for classifying freezing disaster warning levels, adapted to the characteristics of low-temperature rain, snow, and freezing climate in southern China, is established. This standard classifies freezing disasters into four levels based on their severity and impact: Level IV (General), Level III (Significant), Level II (Major), and Level I (Extremely Severe). The core indicators for this classification are snowfall, road icing thickness, freezing rain duration, and the percentage of road sections prone to icing. Thresholds for each level are set based on the actual characteristics of freezing disasters in southern China, with thresholds set according to local regulations and technical specifications for snow removal operations on highways and urban roads. This avoids mismatches between general warning standards and highway prevention and control needs. The freezing disaster warning level classification standard assesses the severity and impact of low-temperature rain, snow, and freezing disasters based on freezing disaster monitoring data in S1, dividing the warning levels into four levels: Level IV, Level III, Level II, and Level I. The specific classification standards are as follows: ; In the formula, C is the intensity value of freezing disaster; j is the summation index; floor() is the floor function; y1 is the actual snowfall; y2 is the actual road surface icing thickness; y3 is the actual duration of freezing rain; y4 is the percentage of mileage prone to icing; y , 1 represents the preset threshold for snowfall, set to 2cm; y , 2 represents the preset threshold for actual road surface icing thickness, taken as 1 cm; y , 3 is a preset threshold for the actual duration of freezing rain, set to 2 hours; y , 4 represents the preset threshold for the percentage of mileage prone to icing, set at 10%. The risk level assessment method is as follows: If C=4, it is a Level I freezing disaster warning; If C=3, it is a Level II freezing disaster warning; If C=2, it is a Level III freezing disaster warning; If C=1, it indicates a Level IV freezing disaster warning; If C=0, then no warning is needed at present.

[0021] Based on the risk level assessment results, standardized and structured disaster early warning information is generated and simultaneously released through multiple channels.

[0022] S2. Based on the risk level assessment results, combined with the characteristics of the highway network in the monitoring area and the reserve of de-icing and snow removal equipment and materials, generate a basic plan for the transportation of de-icing and snow removal materials for ice and freezing disasters. Based on the risk level assessment of freezing disasters, different risk levels correspond to different standards for the configuration of de-icing and snow removal equipment and materials. Taking the configuration standard for a Level III emergency response as an example, the basic configuration quantity of various equipment and materials is calculated. For each level increase in risk, the configuration quantity increases by a factor of 1.2. De-icing and snow removal equipment and materials include de-icing agent spreading equipment, snowplows, snow removal rollers, and de-icing equipment. The specific calculation formula for the baseline configuration quantity is as follows: Snowplow required : ; in The total area for snow removal operations. To provide the working width for snowplows. To accelerate, This is the utilization coefficient of the shovel width. To specify the completion time, K is the working time utilization coefficient; De-icing agent spreader required quantity : ; in For the total area of ​​the sowing operation, For the width of the sowing operation, For driving speed, This is the effective width coefficient for sowing. To specify the completion time, K is the working time utilization coefficient; Snow removal roller brush required : ; in Let f be the total area of ​​snow removal operations, and f be the snow removal capacity of the snowplow. To specify the completion time, K is the working time utilization coefficient; De-icing equipment required : ; in This represents the total area of ​​the ice-breaking operation. The working width of the icebreaker. To accelerate, This is the utilization coefficient of the shovel width. To specify the completion time, K is the working time utilization coefficient.

[0023] Extract highway network ledger data from the monitoring area, clarify highway mileage by grade and region, and key network characteristic indicators include: total mileage of expressways. (km), Total mileage of ordinary national and provincial highways (km) Total mileage of rural roads (km); at the same time, based on the road network level, traffic function importance and the priority of ensuring smooth traffic in the prevention and control of freezing disasters, the monitoring area is divided into a first-level protection area (expressway, special structure bridge, national and provincial trunk roads), a second-level protection area (ordinary national and provincial branch roads), and a third-level protection area (rural roads) according to the core basis and combined with the traffic value and emergency prevention and control needs of different types of roads in the monitoring area. The material allocation of the first-level protection area accounts for 60% of the total allocation, the second-level protection area accounts for 30%, and the third-level protection area accounts for 10%.

[0024] The reserve base of de-icing and snow removal equipment and materials of all provincial and county-level reserve centers in the monitoring area is extracted from the material reserve database of the prevention and control cloud platform. The reserve base statistical indicators include: the inventory quantity of various types of equipment, equipment status (available / to be repaired), storage location, total inventory of various consumables, stacking location, and transportation suitability; at the same time, the available material allocation quantity of each reserve center (i.e., the available inventory quantity, equipment to be repaired is not included in the available allocation quantity) is calculated to form the "Reserve Center Material Allocation Ledger".

[0025] The process for generating a basic plan for the transportation of ice and snow removal materials for ice and snow disasters is as follows: Calculate the total demand for various types of equipment and materials in the monitored area, calculated separately according to highway grade, and then add an upward adjustment coefficient based on the risk level. The formula is: ; In the formula This refers to the total demand for a certain type of material within the monitored area. Risk level increase factor (Level IV) Level III Level II , Level I ); For the mileage of a highway of a certain grade, For highways, It is a regular highway; This refers to the basic allocation of this type of material per 100km of a highway of a certain grade; For the number of highway grades, take (Expressways and ordinary roads).

[0026] Material needs will be allocated according to the coverage area, based on the mileage ratio of Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3 coverage areas. The formula for splitting the data into various protection zones is as follows: ; In the formula The total amount of supplies needed in a certain area. Level 1 Level 2 Level 3; The proportion of supplies allocated to each support area ; Based on the reserve base, the material shortage is determined. By comparing the available material resources of each reserve center with the total material demand in the monitored area, the shortage of various types of equipment and materials is calculated using the following formula: ; In the formula For the shortage quantity of a certain type of material, if Then take (No gap); To monitor the sum of the available quantities of this type of material across all reserve centers within the region; Generate a basic material allocation plan, including: a summary table of material demand in the monitoring area (listing the required quantities of various equipment and materials by highway grade and support area); a list of materials available for allocation at reserve centers (listing the types and quantities of available materials at each reserve center); a list of material shortages (listing the types and quantities of materials in shortfall and the sources of replenishment); preliminary direction of material allocation (clarifying the types and preliminary quantities of materials that each reserve center needs to allocate to each support area); and material allocation priority (ranked by "priority to first-level support areas, priority to core equipment").

[0027] S3. Establish a reserve system for provincial and county-level reserve centers, and optimize the basic material transportation plan by combining the preset path optimization algorithm to determine the material allocation volume and optimal transportation route for provincial and county-level reserve centers. A two-tiered reserve system will be established, characterized by "provincial-level coordination, county-level primary responsibility, hierarchical collaboration, and regional complementarity." The functional positioning, reserve scope, and allocation responsibilities of provincial and county-level reserve centers will be clearly defined, forming a hierarchical material reserve and allocation mechanism, including: Provincial-level reserve centers serve as regional emergency supply centers, storing large-scale specialized snow and ice removal equipment (hot air snowplows, thick icebreakers, and multi-functional snow and ice removal vehicles) and bulk consumables (large quantities of snow melting agents and anti-skid materials), and are responsible for cross-regional material allocation and gap replenishment; county-level reserve centers serve as front-line execution reserve centers, storing commonly used equipment (snow melting agent spreaders, snowplows, and snow removal rollers) and daily consumables (snow melting agents and anti-skid materials), and are responsible for the rapid allocation and on-site deployment of materials within their jurisdiction; Provincial-level reserve centers shall allocate materials to cover all areas under Level II or higher early warning systems, with each center's reserve volume not less than 30% of the total demand under Level I early warning systems in the province; county-level reserve centers shall allocate materials to cover all areas under Level III or higher early warning systems, with each center's reserve volume not less than 80% of the total demand under Level III early warning systems in its jurisdiction. The allocation entities are divided according to risk level (Level IV: County-level reserve centers are primarily responsible, with the provincial level on standby; Level III: When the county level cannot meet the demand, the provincial level will immediately supplement; Level II: The provincial level will supplement the county-level material shortage; Level I: The provincial level will coordinate cross-regional allocation, with the county level cooperating), and the proportion of material allocation responsibility of the provincial and county-level reserve centers under each level is clearly defined.

[0028] Based on the above rules, the basic allocation volume for provincial and county-level reserve centers is calculated using the following formula: ; ; In the formula This serves as the basic allocation volume for provincial-level reserve centers; This serves as the basic allocation for county-level reserve centers; , The allocation responsibility ratio for provincial and county reserve centers, and ; The improved Dijkstra algorithm is pre-set as the core algorithm for path optimization. The algorithm takes the shortest transportation time as the sole optimization objective, while also considering the impact of icy and snowy weather on road traffic. The traditional Dijkstra algorithm is modified with a road icy and snow impact coefficient to adapt to highway transportation scenarios under freezing disasters. Algorithm input parameters: Geographic parameters: latitude and longitude coordinates of the reserve center (starting point) and the material distribution point (end point) in the support area, and the road network topology (road direction, mileage, number of lanes); Traffic parameters: basic driving speed of transport vehicles. (km / h, set according to vehicle type: truck) Special equipment transport vehicle ); Snow and ice impact parameters: Road snow and ice impact coefficient According to the thickness of the ice on the road surface Assignment; Core algorithm correction: Actual speed of transport vehicles The algorithm calculates the actual transportation time for each route by adjusting the driving speed, and selects the route with the shortest transportation time from the origin to the destination, which is the optimal transportation route. Algorithm constraints: The route only selects roads that have been cleared or are passable, and the ice thickness... Furthermore, sections of road that have not yet been cleared must not be included in the route plan; priority should be given to high-grade highways (expressways → ordinary national and provincial highways → rural roads); the amount of goods transported on a single route shall not exceed the approved load capacity of the transport vehicle.

[0029] Based on the basic material transportation plan, and combined with the allocation responsibilities of the two-tier reserve system and the improved Dijkstra algorithm, optimization is performed from three dimensions: allocation quantity, allocation sequence, and transportation route. Dijkstra's algorithm is a shortest path algorithm from one vertex to all other vertices, used to solve the shortest path problem in a weighted graph. The main feature of this algorithm is that it starts from the starting point and adopts a greedy algorithm strategy, traversing the nearest unvisited vertex adjacent to the starting point each time, until it extends to the destination.

[0030] The first step is to optimize the allocation volume: Based on the available allocation volume of materials at each reserve center and the material needs of the support areas under their jurisdiction, the basic allocation volume at the provincial and county levels is refined to ensure that the allocation volume of each reserve center does not exceed its available allocation volume, and that the material needs of each support area are fully covered; if the available allocation volume of a county-level reserve center is insufficient, the provincial reserve center will directly supplement the support area, while reducing the allocation volume of the county-level center and increasing the allocation volume of the provincial center. The second step is to optimize the allocation order: following the principle of "first-level protection areas before second- and third-level areas, core equipment before conventional equipment, and bulk consumables before scattered consumables", the order of material release and transportation batches of each reserve center are determined, and the type, quantity, and transportation time of each batch of materials are clarified. The third step is to optimize the transportation route: For the transportation route of each batch of materials, the improved Dijkstra algorithm is used to plan the route batch by batch, calculate and select the optimal route with the shortest transportation time, and avoid road sections that are severely icy or closed to traffic.

[0031] After the above optimization, a precise, quantitative, and route-based allocation result is formed: Provincial reserve centers: allocation volume of materials in batches (type and quantity of equipment / materials in each batch), allocation targets (corresponding support areas / county-level reserve centers), and optimal transportation routes for each batch (origin, route segments, destination, route mileage, and estimated transportation time); County-level reserve centers: allocation volume within their jurisdiction for each support area (type and quantity of equipment / materials in each support area), and optimal transportation routes for each delivery point (origin, route segments, destination, route mileage, and estimated transportation time). All allocation quantities are rounded to the nearest integer (equipment units are rounded up, and consumables are rounded up according to the approved load capacity of transport vehicles). All transport routes are clearly marked with route numbers, key nodes, and estimated departure / arrival times, forming a "Detailed Table of Material Allocation Quantities and Optimal Transport Routes".

[0032] S4. The optimized material allocation plan is issued to the corresponding provincial and county-level reserve centers. The reserve centers carry out material allocation and transportation according to the plan, and at the same time provide real-time feedback on the material allocation execution status to achieve dynamic closed-loop management of ice disaster prevention and control.

[0033] The optimized material transportation plan is distributed to the corresponding provincial and county-level reserve centers. The optimized material transportation plan is an integrated execution plan, which is distributed in a targeted manner through the provincial highway traffic disaster prevention and control cloud platform: the provincial reserve center receives the overall allocation plan for the whole province, and the county-level reserve center receives the specific execution plan within its jurisdiction; the plan is issued along with execution instructions, which specify the material release time, loading completion time and departure time for each reserve center, to ensure that the time nodes of each link are consistent; after the plan is issued, the cloud platform sends SMS / voice reminders to the execution person in charge of each reserve center to ensure that the execution personnel receive and confirm the plan within 5 minutes.

[0034] The reserve centers will carry out the allocation and transportation of materials according to the plan. After receiving the allocation plan, the provincial and county-level reserve centers will strictly follow the allocation quantity, allocation order, time nodes, and transportation routes in the plan to carry out the allocation and transportation operations. Material outbound and loading: Outbound materials according to the batches, types, and quantities required by the plan; on-site debugging of equipment (to ensure usability); standardized packaging of consumables; and loading according to the principle of "heavy goods at the bottom, light goods on top, equipment in front, consumables behind" to ensure transportation safety. After loading is completed, the loading information (material type, quantity, vehicle license plate number, and driver information) is entered into the cloud platform. Material transportation: The transport vehicles strictly follow the optimal transportation route in the plan, and the Beidou positioning system is activated throughout the process to upload the driving location, speed and status in real time; if the road is icy or blocked during the transportation, the driver must immediately report to the reserve center and the prevention and control cloud platform, and the cloud platform will call the improved Dijkstra algorithm to plan a new optimal route. Material delivery and acceptance: After the materials arrive at the delivery point in the support area, the on-site highway maintenance unit will conduct on-site acceptance to verify the type, quantity, and equipment status of the materials. If the acceptance is qualified, the "Material Acceptance Form" will be signed in the cloud platform. If the acceptance is unqualified (such as equipment failure or missing consumables), the reserve center will immediately reissue the materials to ensure that the material needs of the support area are met.

[0035] Simultaneously, the status of material allocation is fed back in real time, establishing a full-process, real-time feedback mechanism for material allocation status. The feedback content covers all stages, including outbound, loading, transportation, arrival, and acceptance, and the feedback method is online real-time entry + offline on-site confirmation. Each reserve center, transport vehicle, and on-site management unit is responsible for status feedback. Within 10 minutes of completing each step, they must enter the execution status of that step into the prevention and control cloud platform (such as "outbound completed", "loading completed", "in transit", "arrived at the delivery point", "acceptance qualified"). The prevention and control cloud platform monitors and summarizes the feedback execution status in real time, generates the "Real-time Monitoring Table of Material Allocation Execution Status", and displays the location, driving status and material delivery progress of all transport vehicles in the form of a visual map, realizing full-domain visualization of the execution status.

[0036] To achieve dynamic closed-loop management of ice storm disaster prevention and control, a dynamic closed-loop management system is constructed with "monitoring-assessment-planning-optimization-execution-feedback-adjustment" as its core. The core requirements of closed-loop management are real-time data updates, real-time status feedback, and dynamic adjustment of plans: First, real-time monitoring of disaster changes: meteorological sensors continuously collect ice storm disaster data. If key indicators in the monitored area change (e.g., increased ice thickness, increased snowfall), the prevention and control cloud platform immediately and automatically triggers a risk level reassessment process to update the risk level. Second, real-time comparison of execution and plan: the prevention and control cloud platform compares the actual execution status of material allocation with the planned nodes in real time. If execution delays occur (e.g., loading delays, transportation timeouts), an early warning reminder is immediately sent to the responsible party to urge accelerated execution. Third, dynamic adjustment of the allocation plan: if the risk level is updated or there are significant deviations in execution (e.g., road blockages, material shortages), the prevention and control cloud platform immediately re-executes based on the latest disaster data and execution status, generates a new optimized allocation plan, and distributes it to relevant reserve centers, achieving dynamic adjustment of the plan. The fourth step, closing and summarizing the process: When the risk level of freezing disasters in the monitored area drops below Level IV, and all de-icing and snow removal operations in the protected areas are completed and materials are in place, the closing of this freezing disaster prevention and control effort is completed. A "Summary Report on the Allocation of Materials for Freezing Disaster Prevention and Control" is generated, which includes statistics on the total amount of materials allocated, execution efficiency, and route optimization effects, providing data support for subsequent prevention and control work. Throughout the entire closed-loop management process, all data, plans, and execution status are permanently stored in the provincial highway traffic disaster prevention and control cloud platform, forming a big data ledger for freezing disaster prevention and control, enabling data traceability, process review, and experience reuse.

[0037] The above formulas are all dimensionless calculations. The formulas are derived from software simulations based on a large amount of collected data to obtain the most recent real-world results. The preset parameters in the formulas are set by those skilled in the art according to the actual situation.

[0038] The above embodiments can be implemented, in whole or in part, by software, hardware, firmware, or any other combination thereof. When implemented using software, the above embodiments can be implemented, in whole or in part, in the form of a computer program product.

[0039] Those skilled in the art will recognize that the modules and algorithm steps of the various examples described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented in electronic hardware, or a combination of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether these functions are implemented in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Those skilled in the art can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered beyond the scope of this application.

[0040] In addition, the functional modules in the various embodiments of this application can be integrated into one processing module, or each module can exist physically separately, or two or more modules can be integrated into one module.

[0041] The above description is merely a specific embodiment of this application, but the scope of protection of this application is not limited thereto. Any variations or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the scope of the technology disclosed in this application should be included within the scope of protection of this application. Therefore, the scope of protection of this application should be determined by the scope of the claims.

[0042] In conclusion, the above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc., made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for dynamic comprehensive risk assessment and early warning of freezing disasters, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: S1. Establish an early warning system for freezing disasters, build a monitoring network for freezing disasters, acquire real-time monitoring data of freezing disasters within the monitoring area within 12 hours through meteorological sensors, and conduct risk level assessment based on the classification standards for freezing disaster early warning levels. When the monitoring area reaches a certain early warning level, generate corresponding disaster early warning information and release it. S2. Based on the risk level assessment results, combined with the characteristics of the highway network in the monitoring area and the reserve of de-icing and snow removal equipment and materials, generate a basic plan for the transportation of de-icing and snow removal materials for ice and freezing disasters. S3. Establish a reserve system for provincial and county-level reserve centers, and optimize the basic material transportation plan by combining the preset path optimization algorithm to determine the material allocation volume and optimal transportation route for provincial and county-level reserve centers. S4. The optimized material allocation plan is issued to the corresponding provincial and county-level reserve centers. The reserve centers carry out material allocation and transportation according to the plan, and at the same time provide real-time feedback on the material allocation execution status to achieve dynamic closed-loop management of ice disaster prevention and control.

2. The method for dynamic comprehensive risk assessment and early warning of freezing disasters according to claim 1, characterized in that, The ice disaster monitoring data in S1 includes: snowfall, road icing thickness, duration of freezing rain, and percentage of road sections prone to icing.

3. The method for dynamic comprehensive risk assessment and early warning of freezing disasters according to claim 1, characterized in that, The criteria for classifying freezing disaster early warning levels in S1 include: The classification standard for freezing disaster warning levels is based on the freezing disaster monitoring data in S1 to assess the severity and impact range of low-temperature rain, snow and freezing disasters. The warning levels are divided into four levels: Level IV, Level III, Level II and Level I. The specific classification standards are as follows: ； In the formula, C is the intensity value of freezing disaster; j is the summation index; floor() is the floor function; y1 is the actual snowfall; y2 is the actual road surface icing thickness; y3 is the actual duration of freezing rain; y4 is the percentage of mileage prone to icing; y , 1 represents the preset threshold for snowfall, set to 2cm; y , 2 represents the preset threshold for actual road surface icing thickness, taken as 1 cm; y , 3 is a preset threshold for the actual duration of freezing rain, set to 2 hours; y , 4 represents the preset threshold for the percentage of mileage prone to icing, set at 10%. The risk level assessment method is as follows: If C=4, it is a Level I freezing disaster warning; If C=3, it is a Level II freezing disaster warning; If C=2, it is a Level III freezing disaster warning; If C=1, it indicates a Level IV freezing disaster warning; If C=0, then no warning is needed at present.

4. The method for dynamic comprehensive risk assessment and early warning of freezing disasters according to claim 1, characterized in that, The basic process for transporting de-icing and snow removal materials for ice and snow disasters in S2 includes: Calculate the basic configuration quantities of various equipment and materials, and then, based on the risk level assessment results of freezing disasters in S1, calculate the total demand for various equipment and materials in the monitoring area, the available materials in the reserve center, and the material shortage according to the different configuration standards for de-icing and snow removal equipment and materials corresponding to different risk levels. Combine this with the preliminary direction of material allocation to generate a basic material transportation plan. The specific formulas for calculating the basic configuration quantities of various equipment and supplies are as follows: Snowplow required : ； in The total area for snow removal operations. To provide the working width for snowplows. To accelerate, This is the utilization coefficient of the shovel width. To specify the completion time, K is the working time utilization coefficient; De-icing agent spreader required quantity : ； in For the total area of ​​the sowing operation, For the width of the sowing operation, For driving speed, This is the effective width coefficient for sowing. To specify the completion time, K is the working time utilization coefficient; Snow removal roller brush required : ； in Let f be the total area of ​​snow removal operations, and f be the snow removal capacity of the snowplow. To specify the completion time, K is the working time utilization coefficient; De-icing equipment required : ； in This represents the total area of ​​the ice-breaking operation. The working width of the icebreaker. To accelerate, This is the utilization coefficient of the shovel width. To specify the completion time, K is the working time utilization coefficient; Extract highway network data from the monitoring area, including the total mileage of expressways, the total mileage of ordinary national and provincial highways, and the total mileage of rural roads. Based on the road network level, traffic function importance, and priority of ensuring smooth traffic flow in the prevention and control of freezing disasters, and combined with the traffic value and emergency prevention and control needs of different types of roads in the monitoring area, expressways, special structure bridges, and main lines of national and provincial highways are classified as first-level protection areas, ordinary branch lines of national and provincial highways are classified as second-level protection areas, and rural roads are classified as third-level protection areas. Extract the base amount of de-icing and snow removal equipment and materials reserves of all provincial and county-level reserve centers within the monitoring area, and at the same time, count the amount of materials that can be allocated by each reserve center to form a ledger of materials that can be allocated by the reserve centers. Calculate the total demand for various equipment and materials in the monitoring area, categorized by highway grade, and then add the risk level escalation factor. The formula is as follows: ； In the formula This refers to the total demand for a certain type of material within the monitored area. This is a risk level escalation factor; For the mileage of a highway of a certain grade, For highways, It is a regular highway; This refers to the basic allocation of this type of material per 100km of a highway of a certain grade; Number of highway grades; Material needs will be allocated according to the coverage area, based on the mileage ratio of Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3 coverage areas. The formula for splitting the data into various protection zones is as follows: ； In the formula The total amount of supplies needed in a certain area. Level 1 Level 2 Level 3; The proportion of supplies allocated to each support area; Based on the reserve base, the material shortage is determined. By comparing the available material resources of each reserve center with the total material demand in the monitored area, the shortage of various types of equipment and materials is calculated using the following formula: ； In the formula The shortage quantity of a certain type of material, if Then take ; To monitor the sum of the available quantities of this type of material across all reserve centers within the region; Based on the total demand in the monitored area, the available resources in the reserve center, and the shortage of resources, a basic plan for the transportation of resources is generated in conjunction with the initial direction of resource allocation.

5. The method for dynamic comprehensive risk assessment and early warning of freezing disasters according to claim 1, characterized in that, The process of establishing a reserve system with provincial and county-level reserve centers in S3 is as follows: A two-tiered reserve system has been established to form a hierarchical material reserve and allocation mechanism. The provincial reserve center serves as the regional emergency supply center, storing large-scale specialized snow and ice removal equipment and bulk consumables, including hot air snowplows, thick icebreakers, multi-functional snow and ice removal vehicles, large quantities of de-icing agents, and anti-skid materials, and is responsible for cross-regional material allocation and gap replenishment. The county-level reserve center serves as the front-line execution reserve center, storing commonly used equipment and daily consumables, including de-icing agent spreaders, snowplows, snow removal rollers, de-icing agents, and anti-skid materials, and is responsible for the rapid allocation and on-site deployment of materials within its jurisdiction. Provincial-level reserve centers shall allocate materials based on the coverage of Level II or above early warning systems across the entire province, while county-level reserve centers shall allocate materials based on the coverage of Level III or above early warning systems within their jurisdictions. The allocation entities are divided according to risk level, and the proportion of material allocation responsibility of provincial and county-level reserve centers under each level is clearly defined. The formula for calculating the basic allocation volume of provincial and county-level reserve centers is as follows: ; ; In the formula This serves as the basic allocation volume for provincial-level reserve centers; This serves as the basic allocation for county-level reserve centers; , The allocation responsibility ratio for provincial and county reserve centers, and .

6. The method for dynamic comprehensive risk assessment and early warning of freezing disasters according to claim 1, characterized in that, The process of optimizing the basic material transportation plan in S3 to determine the material allocation volume and optimal transportation route for provincial and county-level reserve centers is as follows: The improved Dijkstra algorithm is pre-defined as a path optimization algorithm, with the goal of minimizing transportation time. Dijkstra's algorithm is a shortest path algorithm from one vertex to all other vertices, used to solve the shortest path problem in a weighted graph. The algorithm's input parameters are the latitude and longitude coordinates of the reserve center and the material distribution points in the support area, the road network topology, and the basic driving speed of the transport vehicles. Road icing and snow impact coefficient Take 0.4-0.6; Considering the impact of icy and snowy weather on road traffic, based on the road icing and snow impact coefficient... After adjusting the travel speed, the actual transport time for each route is calculated, and the route with the shortest transport time from the origin to the destination is selected as the optimal transport route. The algorithm's constraints are that it only selects routes from roads that have been cleared or are passable, and the ice thickness... Furthermore, sections of road that have not yet been cleared are prohibited from being included in route planning; Priority should be given to high-grade highways; the amount of goods transported on a single route should not exceed the approved load capacity of the transport vehicle.

7. The method for dynamic comprehensive risk assessment and early warning of freezing disasters according to claim 1, characterized in that, The process of distributing the optimized material allocation plan to the corresponding provincial and county-level reserve centers in S4 is as follows: The optimized material transportation plan will be distributed to the corresponding provincial and county-level reserve centers; the provincial reserve centers will receive the overall allocation plan for the whole province, and the county-level reserve centers will receive the specific implementation plan within their jurisdiction. The plan was issued along with execution instructions, specifying the material release time, loading completion time, and departure time for each reserve center.

8. The method for dynamic comprehensive risk assessment and early warning of freezing disasters according to claim 1, characterized in that, In S4, the reserve center executes material allocation and transportation according to the plan, while simultaneously providing real-time feedback on the material allocation execution status, thus achieving a dynamic closed-loop management process for ice disaster prevention and control as follows: After receiving the allocation plan, provincial and county-level reserve centers shall carry out the allocation and transportation operations in accordance with the allocation quantity, allocation order, time nodes, and transportation routes specified in the plan. Materials are issued according to the batches, types, and quantities required by the plan; equipment is debugged on-site; and consumables are packaged in a standardized manner. After loading is completed, loading information is entered into the cloud platform. The transport vehicles travel along the optimal transport route in the plan and upload their location, speed and status in real time. If an emergency occurs during transport, it is necessary to report to the reserve center and the prevention and control cloud platform immediately, and the cloud platform will call the improved Dijkstra algorithm to plan a new optimal route. After the supplies arrive at the designated delivery point in the support area, the on-site highway maintenance unit will conduct an on-site inspection to verify the type, quantity, and equipment status of the supplies. If the inspection is successful, the unit will sign the "Supply Acceptance Form" on the cloud platform. If the inspection fails, the reserve center will immediately reissue the supplies. Real-time feedback on the status of material allocation and execution; establishing a full-process, real-time feedback mechanism for the status of material allocation and execution; feedback content covering all stages from warehousing, loading, transportation, arrival, and acceptance; achieving dynamic closed-loop management of ice and freezing disaster prevention and control.

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