Veterinary antibiotic environmental concentration and multi-medium distribution prediction method and system

Abstract

This invention provides a method and system for predicting the environmental concentration and multi-media distribution of veterinary antibiotics, comprising: Step S1: acquiring environmental parameters; Step S2: constructing a nationwide multi-media environmental dynamic model based on the environmental parameters, including the long-distance migration process of surface water; Step S3: constructing a transport matrix based on the dynamic model, solving the transport matrix, and obtaining the predicted concentration distribution of the target antibiotic in each environmental phase; Step S4: acquiring the measured concentration value of the target antibiotic, verifying and comparing it with the predicted results, and evaluating the accuracy of the model; Step S5: analyzing the concentration distribution and temporal accumulation characteristics of the target antibiotic in different terrestrial environmental media across the country, and evaluating its final environmental fate; quantitatively analyzing long-distance migration and cross-media transport flux, and tracing its main industry sources in conjunction with the target antibiotic emission inventory.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of watershed water environment processes and simulation technology, specifically to a method and system for predicting the environmental concentration and multi-media distribution of veterinary antibiotics. Background Technology

[0002] With the advancement of industrialization, the distribution of dissociable organic pollutants such as antibiotics, hormones, and perfluorinated compounds in my country's terrestrial environment is becoming increasingly widespread. To scientifically assess the environmental risks of these pollutants, constructing environmental fate models has become a key method in current environmental geography research.

[0003] In existing technologies, such as the national patent application number CN202410752855.3, a distributed watershed antibiotic migration and homing process modeling method is disclosed. This method, through nested watershed division, can effectively simulate watershed hydrological processes, sediment transport, and the migration processes of the vadose zone and shallow groundwater, accurately depicting the antibiotic migration logic at a specific regional or watershed scale. However, such watershed-scale models still face challenges in dealing with large-scale spatiotemporal dynamic predictions at a "national scale."

[0004] On the one hand, existing models often focus on the refinement of hydrological processes and non-point source emissions. However, when dealing with "dissociable" organic matter with complex physicochemical properties, they are mostly based on traditional fugacity theory, making it difficult to accurately quantify the dissociation equilibrium of pollutants under different acidic and alkaline environments and their dynamic distribution patterns among the seven major environmental phases, including air, water, soil, and vegetation. On the other hand, existing national-scale simulation technologies typically treat geographic grids as independent units, lacking a horizontal directional transport mechanism like that of watershed models. This limits their accuracy in simulating long-distance cross-regional transport of surface water and prevents them from systematically reconstructing the overall national-scale environmental trends following pollutant emissions.

[0005] Therefore, how to combine nationwide spatial coverage with surface water directional transport modules, and deeply optimize the cross-media distribution logic of dissociable organic matter to construct a dynamic prediction method that can accurately simulate the multi-media environmental distribution and migration paths of pollutants such as antibiotics, has become a technical challenge that urgently needs to be overcome in the field of environmental monitoring and decision support. Summary of the Invention

[0006] To address the shortcomings of existing technologies, the purpose of this invention is to provide a method for predicting the environmental concentration and multi-media distribution of veterinary antibiotics.

[0007] According to one aspect of the present invention, a method for predicting the environmental concentration and multi-media distribution of veterinary antibiotics includes: Step S1: Obtain environmental parameters; Step S2: Based on environmental parameters, construct a nationwide multi-media environmental dynamic model that includes the long-distance migration process of surface water; Step S3: Based on the dynamic model, construct the transfer matrix, solve the transfer matrix, and obtain the predicted results of the concentration distribution of the target antibiotic in each environmental phase; Step S4: Obtain the measured concentration of the target antibiotic, compare it with the predicted results, and evaluate the accuracy of the model; Step S5: Analyze the concentration distribution and temporal accumulation characteristics of the target antibiotic in different terrestrial environmental media across the country, and assess its final environmental fate; quantitatively analyze long-distance migration and cross-media transport flux, and trace its main industrial sources in conjunction with the target antibiotic emission inventory.

[0008] Preferably, the environmental parameters include land use type, soil physicochemical parameters, meteorological data, and surface runoff data; the soil physicochemical parameters include soil density, organic matter content, and soil pH data; wherein the meteorological data includes near-surface temperature, wind speed, and rainfall data, and the surface runoff data includes flow rate, flow direction, and surface water pH data.

[0009] Preferably, step S1 further includes: Based on the simulation time range and step size, the dynamic environmental parameters are averaged monthly.

[0010] Preferably, step S2 includes: Step S2.1: Divide the entire land area of ​​the country into multiple 0.5° × 0.5° grids. Each grid area includes multiple environmental phases, including atmosphere, natural soil, agricultural soil, industrial soil, water, sediment, and vegetation. Each environmental phase contains several sub-phases, where the atmospheric phase includes gas phase, aerosol liquid phase, and aerosol solid phase; the soil phase includes soil gas phase, soil liquid phase, and soil solid phase; the water phase includes liquid phase and suspended particulate matter phase; the sediment includes liquid phase and solid phase; and the vegetation includes liquid phase and biomass phase. Step S2.2: Based on the activity method, calculate the dissociation of the target antibiotic and the interphase migration flux of different dissociation states, and construct a nationwide multi-media environmental dynamic model.

[0011] Preferably, the expression for the nationwide-scale multi-media environmental dynamic model is as follows:

[0012] in, Represents the target mesh of Volume occupied by the phase; Indicates the concentration of the target antibiotic; Indicates time; This indicates that external emissions flow into the target grid. of Phase mass flow; Represents the target mesh The adjacent upstream grid is directly input into the target grid. of Phase mass flow; Represents the target mesh of Opposite and target mesh The mass flow rate output from the adjacent downstream grid; Represents the target mesh middle Phase through advection exchange net input Phase mass flow; Represents the target mesh middle Phase exchange net input through diffusion Phase mass flow; Represents the target mesh of The flow rate of the mass flowing out of the system.

[0013] Preferably, the target mesh The adjacent upstream grid is directly input into the target grid. of Phase mass flow The calculation process includes: Define the surface runoff direction for each grid, establish directional logical connections between adjacent grids for surface water, construct a surface water transport network covering the entire country, and calculate the target grid based on the surface water transport network. The target grid is directly input from the adjacent upstream grid. of Phase mass flow :

[0014] in, Represents a grid All flow-to-grids in the surrounding 8 grids grid The concentration of pollutants in the medium. Represents a grid To the grid Transmitted surface runoff.

[0015] Preferably, the general formulas for expressing the mass fluxes of advection exchange and diffusion exchange in each environmental phase are as follows:

[0016] In the formula, Represents the transmission coefficient (m³·s⁻¹). The medium concentration of the pollutant is represented by N, and the mass flow rate is represented by N. Among them, from Xiangdao Phase advection process transport coefficient With diffusion process transport coefficient The expression is as follows:

[0017]

[0018] in, express Xiangdao Phase migration rate; express Xiangdao The mass transfer area of ​​the phase; express Xiangdao The mass transfer coefficient of the phase.

[0019] Preferably, the target grid of Mass flow rate of phase flowing out of the system The calculation process includes: The fluxes removed from the system through various pathways, including degradation, leaching, and sediment burial, are calculated. Among them, the target grid of Flux removed by degradation The calculation is as follows:

[0020] in, express The degradation rate constant of the phase; Represents a grid of Volume occupied by the phase; Represents a grid of The concentration of antibiotics in the phase.

[0021] Preferably, the target grid of Opposite and target mesh Mass flow rate output from adjacent downstream grids The expression is as follows:

[0022] in, This represents the concentration (mol / m3) of environmental phase i in grid x. This represents the flow rate (m³ / s) downstream of environmental phase i in grid x.

[0023] According to another aspect of the present invention, a system for predicting the environmental concentration and multi-media distribution of veterinary antibiotics includes: Module M1: Obtains environmental parameters; Module M2: Based on environmental parameters, construct a nationwide multi-media environmental dynamic model that includes the long-distance migration process of surface water; Module M3: Based on the dynamic model, a transfer matrix is ​​constructed, and the transfer matrix is ​​solved to obtain the predicted results of the concentration distribution of the target antibiotic in each environmental phase; Module M4: Obtain the measured concentration of the target antibiotic, compare it with the predicted results, and evaluate the accuracy of the model; Module M5: Analyzes the concentration distribution and temporal accumulation characteristics of target antibiotics in different terrestrial environmental media across the country, and assesses their final environmental fate; quantitatively analyzes long-distance migration and cross-media transport flux, and traces their main industrial sources in conjunction with the target antibiotic emission inventory.

[0024] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects: This invention constructs a long-distance directional transport module for surface water and integrates all environmental media, including the atmosphere, natural soil, agricultural soil, industrial soil, water bodies, sediments, and vegetation. This breaks the spatial isolation of traditional models and enables dynamic evolution simulation of multi-media environments on a national scale. Compared with existing steady-state models, this scheme can accurately characterize the dynamic accumulation characteristics of dissociable organic pollutants over time, providing a scientific basis for long-term pollutant risk assessment. By clearly defining the surface runoff direction of each grid and establishing topological connections, this invention effectively solves the problem that existing models cannot simulate the long-distance horizontal migration of pollutants in terrestrial water systems, achieving systematic tracking of the directional transport process of pollutants. Simultaneously, the model introduces the activity method to replace the traditional fugacity model, scientifically quantifying the dissociation equilibrium of dissociable organic pollutants and the migration and distribution patterns of different forms among various environmental phases, significantly improving the prediction accuracy of the concentration distribution of complex organic pollutants such as antibiotics, hormones, perfluorinated compounds, and phenols in multi-media environments. Based on the quantitative analysis of long-distance transmission and cross-media migration flux, this invention can not only accurately simulate the environmental attribution and complex migration paths of pollutants after emission, but also achieve precise pollution source tracing by combining emission inventories, providing strong technical support for national-level environmental management and pollution prevention and control decisions. Attached Figure Description

[0025] Other features, objects, and advantages of the present invention will become more apparent from the following detailed description of non-limiting embodiments with reference to the accompanying drawings: Figure 1 Flowchart of methods for predicting and evaluating environmental concentrations of antibiotics; Figure 2 Run the logic diagram for the model; Figure 3 This is a case study simulating the median time-cumulative environmental concentration of veterinary antibiotics. Detailed Implementation

[0026] The present invention will now be described in detail with reference to specific embodiments. These embodiments will help those skilled in the art to further understand the present invention, but do not limit the invention in any way. It should be noted that those skilled in the art can make several changes and improvements without departing from the concept of the present invention. These all fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0027] Example 1: This embodiment provides a method for predicting the environmental concentration and multi-media distribution of veterinary antibiotics. First, based on thermodynamic activity theory, it accurately quantifies the dissociation equilibrium and cross-media distribution logic of dissociable organic pollutants in seven environmental phases, including air, water, soil, and vegetation, overcoming the bottleneck of traditional models in handling ionic substances. Second, it establishes dynamic differential equations for each grid using the unsteady mass conservation law and innovatively establishes topological connections between grids by specifying the direction of surface runoff, realizing the simulation of long-distance directional transport of pollutants in the national water system. Finally, it dynamically tracks the spatiotemporal evolution, environmental fate, and migration paths of pollutants in complex environmental systems through numerical solutions.

[0028] like Figure 1 As shown, the method specifically includes: Step S1: Obtain environmental parameters; Step S2: Based on environmental parameters, construct a nationwide multi-media environmental dynamic model that includes the long-distance migration process of surface water; Step S3: Based on the dynamic model, construct the transfer matrix, solve the transfer matrix, and obtain the predicted results of the concentration distribution of the target antibiotic in each environmental phase; Step S4: Obtain the measured concentration of the target antibiotic, compare it with the predicted results, and evaluate the accuracy of the model; Step S5: Analyze the concentration distribution and temporal accumulation characteristics of the target antibiotic in different terrestrial environmental media across the country, and assess its final environmental fate; quantitatively analyze long-distance migration and cross-media transport flux, and trace its main industrial sources in conjunction with the target antibiotic emission inventory.

[0029] In this embodiment, the environmental parameters include land use type, soil physicochemical parameters, meteorological data, and surface runoff data; the soil physicochemical parameters include soil density, organic matter content, and soil pH data; wherein, the meteorological data includes near-surface temperature, wind speed, and rainfall data, and the surface runoff data includes flow rate, flow direction, and surface water pH data.

[0030] In this embodiment, step S1 further includes: Based on the simulation time range and step size, the dynamic environmental parameters are averaged monthly.

[0031] In this embodiment, step S2 includes: Step S2.1: Divide the entire land area of ​​the country into multiple 0.5° × 0.5° grids. Each grid area includes multiple environmental phases, including atmosphere, natural soil, agricultural soil, industrial soil, water, sediment, and vegetation. Each environmental phase contains several sub-phases, where the atmospheric phase includes gas phase, aerosol liquid phase, and aerosol solid phase; the soil phase includes soil gas phase, soil liquid phase, and soil solid phase; the water phase includes liquid phase and suspended particulate matter phase; the sediment includes liquid phase and solid phase; and the vegetation includes liquid phase and biomass phase. Step S2.2: Based on the activity method, calculate the dissociation of the target antibiotic and the interphase migration flux of different dissociation states, and construct a nationwide multi-media environmental dynamic model.

[0032] In this embodiment, the expression of the nationwide-scale multi-media environmental dynamic model is as follows:

[0033] in, Represents the target mesh of Volume occupied by the phase; Indicates the concentration of the target antibiotic; Indicates time; This indicates that external emissions flow into the target grid. of Phase mass flow; Represents the target mesh The adjacent upstream grid is directly input into the target grid. of Phase mass flow; Represents the target mesh of Opposite and target mesh The mass flow rate output from the adjacent downstream grid; Represents the target mesh middle Phase through advection exchange net input Phase mass flow; Represents the target mesh middle Phase exchange net input through diffusion Phase mass flow; Represents the target mesh of The flow rate of the mass flowing out of the system.

[0034] In this embodiment, the target mesh The adjacent upstream grid is directly input into the target grid. of Phase mass flow The calculation process includes: The surface runoff direction is defined for each grid, directional logical connections of surface water between adjacent grids are established, and a surface water transport network covering the entire country is constructed. Based on the surface water transport network, the mass flow rate of surface water phases transported from upstream grids to target grids via surface runoff is calculated. :

[0035] in, Represents a grid All flow-to-grids in the surrounding 8 grids grid The concentration of pollutants in the medium. Represents a grid To the grid Transmitted surface runoff; Since veterinary antibiotics are almost non-volatile, only horizontal transport via surface water is considered, i.e.: = .

[0036] Target mesh of Opposite and target mesh Mass flow rate output from adjacent downstream grids The expression is as follows:

[0037] in, This represents the concentration (mol / m3) of environmental phase i in grid x. This represents the flow rate (m³ / s) downstream of environmental phase i in grid x.

[0038] In this embodiment, the general formulas for expressing the mass flow rates of advection exchange and diffusion exchange in each environmental phase are as follows:

[0039] In the formula, Represents the transmission coefficient (m³·s⁻¹). The medium concentration of the pollutant is represented by N, and the mass flow rate is represented by N. Among them, from Xiangdao Phase advection process transport coefficient With diffusion process transport coefficient The expression is as follows:

[0040]

[0041] in, express Xiangdao Phase migration rate; express Xiangdao The mass transfer area of ​​the phase; express Xiangdao The mass transfer coefficient of the phase.

[0042] In this embodiment, the target mesh of Mass flow rate of phase flowing out of the system The calculation process includes: The fluxes removed from the system through various pathways, including degradation, leaching, and sediment burial, are calculated. Among them, the target grid of Flux removed by degradation The calculation is as follows:

[0043] in, express The degradation rate constant of the phase; Represents a grid of Volume occupied by the phase; Represents a grid of The concentration of antibiotics in the phase.

[0044] Working Principle: The working principle of the technology described in this invention is based on the deep coupling of thermodynamic activity theory and the law of conservation of mass under unsteady conditions. First, the model overcomes the limitation of traditional fugacity models in effectively handling ionic pollutants. By introducing activity coefficients and activity capacity parameters, it precisely defines the dissociation equilibrium and interphase distribution logic of dissociable organic pollutants in seven environmental phases (water, air, soil, sediment, and vegetation) and their sub-phases, thus solving the problem of form transformation of chemical substances during cross-media migration at the microscopic thermodynamic level. On a macroscopic scale, the system divides the national terrestrial environment into a high-resolution geographic grid array and establishes a set of mass balance differential equations for each grid, including multiple processes such as degradation, leaching, sedimentation, and advection. First-order kinetic methods are used to characterize the dynamic loss and transformation of pollutants.

[0045] The core innovation lies in the construction of a long-distance directional transport module for surface water. By defining the surface runoff direction for each grid across the country, a topological connection between adjacent grids is established, enabling pollutants to migrate horizontally across grids with the runoff, breaking the spatial isolation of traditional models. Finally, the model uses numerical algorithms to combine initial emission inventory data with dynamic environmental parameters such as meteorological, geographical, and soil physicochemical properties. It calculates and outputs in real time the multi-media environmental concentration distribution, migration flux, and environmental fate paths of pollutants at the national scale, thereby achieving a panoramic quantitative simulation of the spatiotemporal evolution of complex organic pollutants within complex environmental systems.

[0046] Example 2: This embodiment provides a method for predicting the environmental concentration and multi-media distribution of veterinary antibiotics based on dynamic simulation of multi-media transport in a nationwide terrestrial environment. It can simulate the multi-media environmental distribution of dissociable organic pollutants such as antibiotics, hormones, perfluorinated compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, organophosphorus compounds, and phenolic compounds. Taking veterinary antibiotics as an example... Figure 1 As shown, the technical solution includes the following steps: Step S1: Collect the environmental parameters required to construct a nationwide land multi-media environmental dynamic model, including land use type, meteorological data, surface runoff data, etc., and process the dynamic environmental parameters into monthly averages according to the simulation time range and step size.

[0047] Step S2: Construct a nationwide multi-media environmental dynamic model incorporating the long-distance migration process of surface water. The model divides the entire land area of ​​China into a 0.5° × 0.5° grid. Each grid region contains multiple environmental phases: atmosphere, natural soil, agricultural soil, industrial soil, water bodies, sediments, and vegetation. Each environmental phase contains several sub-phases: the atmospheric phase includes gas, aerosol liquid, and aerosol solid phases; the soil phase includes soil gas, soil liquid, and soil solid phases; the water phase includes liquid and suspended particulate matter; the sediment phase includes liquid and solid phases; and the vegetation phase includes liquid and biomass. For example... Figure 2 As shown, unlike traditional fugacity models, the model disclosed in this invention is based on the activity method and can be used to calculate the dissociation of dissociable organic pollutants and the interphase migration and distribution of different dissociation states. The model is based on the law of conservation of mass and comprehensively describes the multi-media concentration changes of pollutants by integrating their migration and transformation within and between different environmental phases. (Grid...) environmental phase veterinary antibiotic concentration (mol.m) -3 The describing equation for ) is expressed as follows:

[0048] in, Represents a grid of Phase volume (m) 3 ); Indicates time (s); This indicates that external emissions flow into the grid. of Phase mass flow rate (mol·s) -1 ); Representation and grid Direct input mesh to adjacent upstream grid of Phase mass flow rate (mol·s) -1 ); Represents a grid of Opposite and grid Mass flow rate (mol·s) output from adjacent downstream grids -1 ); Represents a grid middle Phase through advection exchange net input Phase mass flow rate (mol·s) -1 ); Represents a grid middle Phase exchange net input through diffusion Phase mass flow rate (mol·s) -1 ); Represents a grid of Mass flow rate (mol·s) outside the system -1 ).

[0049] In each grid of the model, the advection and migration mass fluxes in each environmental phase. (mol.s) -1 The expression for ) is as follows:

[0050] in, Represents the transmission coefficient (m) 3 .s -1 ), The medium concentration of pollutants (mol·m) -3 ).

[0051] Interphase transport mainly consists of advection and diffusion processes. Advection processes include atmospheric dry and wet deposition, soil runoff, and surface runoff; diffusion processes include gas adsorption and volatilization. Typically, from... Xiangdao Phase advection process transport coefficient With diffusion process transport coefficient The expression is as follows:

[0052]

[0053] in, express Xiangdao Phase migration rate (ms) -1 ); express Xiangdao The mass transfer area of ​​the phase (m²) 2 ); express Xiangdao The mass transfer coefficient of the phase (ms) -1 ).

[0054] Antibiotic removal from the system is primarily considered through processes such as degradation, leaching, and sediment burial. The calculations for soil leaching and sediment burial are similar to those for advection processes. The degradation process is assumed to follow first-order reaction kinetics. (Grid...) of Flux removed by degradation The calculation is as follows:

[0055] in, express Phase degradation rate constant (s) -1 ); Represents a grid of Phase volume (m) 3 ); Represents a grid of Antibiotic concentration in phase (mol·m) -3 ).

[0056] The model connects the national surface water grids by specifying the direction of surface runoff in each grid. This facilitates the transport of surface runoff to the grids. Material flow of surface water phase (mol.s) -1 The expression is as follows:

[0057] in, Represents a grid All flow-to-grids in the surrounding 8 grids grid Concentration of pollutants in the medium (mol·m) -3 ), Represents a grid To the grid Transmitted surface runoff (m³) 3 .s -1 ).

[0058] Step S3: Construct a transfer matrix for all grids across the country. Due to the large size of the transfer matrix, the model is numerically solved using the preprocessed conjugate gradient method to obtain the concentration distribution of the target antibiotic in each environmental phase.

[0059] Step S4: Verify the prediction results: Obtain the measured concentration values ​​of the target veterinary antibiotics through literature review, verify and compare them with the simulation results, and evaluate the model performance.

[0060] Step S5: Analyze the concentration distribution and time accumulation characteristics of veterinary antibiotics in different terrestrial environmental media in my country, and assess their final environmental fate; quantitatively analyze long-distance migration and cross-media transport flux, and trace their main industry sources in conjunction with the veterinary antibiotic emission inventory.

[0061] The areas with higher antibiotic concentrations in surface water are the Haihe River Basin and the Huaihe River Basin, while the areas with lower concentrations are inland river basins and southwestern river basins.

[0062] Figure 3The study shows the changes in median concentrations of veterinary antibiotics in freshwater sediments in my country from 2010 to 2020. It can be seen that the concentrations first increased and then decreased after 2015.

[0063] The present invention also provides a system for predicting the environmental concentration and multi-media distribution of veterinary antibiotics. The system can be implemented by executing the process steps of the method for predicting the environmental concentration and multi-media distribution of veterinary antibiotics. That is, those skilled in the art can understand the method for predicting the environmental concentration and multi-media distribution of veterinary antibiotics as a preferred embodiment of the system for predicting the environmental concentration and multi-media distribution of veterinary antibiotics.

[0064] Those skilled in the art will understand that, besides implementing the system and its various devices, modules, and units provided by this invention in the form of purely computer-readable program code, the same functions can be achieved entirely through logical programming of the method steps, making the system and its various devices, modules, and units of this invention function in the form of logic gates, switches, application-specific integrated circuits, programmable logic controllers, and embedded microcontrollers. Therefore, the system and its various devices, modules, and units provided by this invention can be considered as a hardware component, and the devices, modules, and units included therein for implementing various functions can also be considered as structures within the hardware component; alternatively, the devices, modules, and units for implementing various functions can be considered as both software modules implementing the method and structures within the hardware component.

[0065] Specific embodiments of the present invention have been described above. It should be understood that the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments described above, and those skilled in the art can make various changes or modifications within the scope of the claims, which do not affect the essence of the present invention. Unless otherwise specified, the embodiments and features described in this application can be arbitrarily combined with each other.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the environmental concentration and multi-media distribution of veterinary antibiotics, characterized in that, include: Step S1: Obtain environmental parameters; Step S2: Based on environmental parameters, construct a nationwide multi-media environmental dynamic model that includes the long-distance migration process of surface water; Step S3: Based on the dynamic model, construct the transfer matrix, solve the transfer matrix, and obtain the predicted results of the concentration distribution of the target antibiotic in each environmental phase; Step S4: Obtain the measured concentration of the target antibiotic, compare it with the predicted results, and evaluate the accuracy of the model; Step S5: Analyze the concentration distribution and temporal accumulation characteristics of the target antibiotic in different terrestrial environmental media across the country, and assess its final environmental fate; quantitatively analyze long-distance migration and cross-media transport flux, and trace its main industrial sources in conjunction with the target antibiotic emission inventory.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The environmental parameters include land use type, soil physicochemical parameters, meteorological data, and surface runoff data; the soil physicochemical parameters include soil density, organic matter content, and soil pH data; wherein, the meteorological data includes near-surface temperature, wind speed, and rainfall data, and the surface runoff data includes flow rate, flow direction, and surface water pH data.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, Step S1 further includes: Based on the simulation time range and step size, the dynamic environmental parameters are averaged monthly.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, Step S2 includes: Step S2.1: Divide the entire land area of ​​the country into multiple 0.5° × 0.5° grids. Each grid area includes multiple environmental phases, including atmosphere, natural soil, agricultural soil, industrial soil, water, sediment, and vegetation. Each environmental phase contains several sub-phases, where the atmospheric phase includes gas phase, aerosol liquid phase, and aerosol solid phase; the soil phase includes soil gas phase, soil liquid phase, and soil solid phase; the water phase includes liquid phase and suspended particulate matter phase; the sediment includes liquid phase and solid phase; and the vegetation includes liquid phase and biomass phase. Step S2.2: Based on the activity method, calculate the dissociation of the target antibiotic and the interphase migration flux of different dissociation states, and construct a nationwide multi-media environmental dynamic model.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that, The expression for the nationwide-scale multi-media environmental dynamic model is as follows: in, Represents the target mesh of Volume occupied by the phase; Indicates the concentration of the target antibiotic; Indicates time; This indicates that external emissions flow into the target grid. of Phase mass flow; Represents the target mesh The adjacent upstream grid is directly input into the target grid. of Phase mass flow; Represents the target mesh of Opposite and target mesh The mass flow rate output from the adjacent downstream grid; Represents the target mesh middle Phase through advection exchange net input Phase mass flow; Represents the target mesh middle Phase exchange net input through diffusion Phase mass flow; Represents the target mesh of The flow rate of the mass flowing out of the system.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that, The target grid The adjacent upstream grid is directly input into the target grid. of Phase mass flow The calculation process includes: Define the surface runoff direction for each grid, establish directional logical connections between adjacent grids for surface water, construct a surface water transport network covering the entire country, and calculate the target grid based on the surface water transport network. The target grid is directly input from the adjacent upstream grid. of Phase mass flow : In the formula, Represents a grid All flow-to-grids in the surrounding 8 grids grid The concentration of pollutants in the medium. Represents a grid To the grid Transmitted surface runoff.

7. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that, The general formulas for expressing the mass fluxes of advection and diffusion exchange in each environmental phase are as follows: In the formula, Represents the transmission coefficient (m³·s⁻¹). The medium concentration of the pollutant is represented by N, and the mass flow rate is represented by N. Among them, from Xiangdao Phase advection process transport coefficient With diffusion process transport coefficient The expression is as follows: in, express Xiangdao Phase migration rate; express Xiangdao The mass transfer area of ​​the phase; express Xiangdao The mass transfer coefficient of the phase.

8. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that, Target mesh of Mass flow rate of phase flowing out of the system The calculation process includes: The fluxes removed from the system through various pathways, including degradation, leaching, and sediment burial, are calculated. Among them, the target grid of Flux removed by degradation The calculation is as follows: in, express The degradation rate constant of the phase; Represents a grid of Volume occupied by the phase; Represents a grid of The concentration of antibiotics in the phase.

9. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, Target mesh of Opposite and target mesh Mass flow rate output from adjacent downstream grids The expression is as follows: in, This represents the concentration of environmental phase i in grid x. This represents the flow rate downstream of environmental phase i in grid x.

10. A system for predicting the environmental concentration and multi-media distribution of veterinary antibiotics, characterized in that, include: Module M1: Obtains environmental parameters; Module M2: Based on environmental parameters, construct a nationwide multi-media environmental dynamic model that includes the long-distance migration process of surface water; Module M3: Solve the dynamic model to obtain the predicted concentration distribution of the target antibiotic in each environmental phase; Module M4: Obtain the measured concentration of the target antibiotic, compare it with the predicted results, and evaluate the accuracy of the model; Module M5: Analyzes the concentration distribution and temporal accumulation characteristics of target antibiotics in different terrestrial environmental media across the country, and assesses their final environmental fate; quantitatively analyzes long-distance migration and cross-media transport flux, and traces their main industrial sources in conjunction with the target antibiotic emission inventory.

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