Emission factor calculation method and emission factor calculation program

Abstract

To provide an emission factor calculation method and an emission factor calculation program for dynamically evaluating CO2 emission amounts.SOLUTION: An emission factor calculation method that can be executed by a computer executes the processing of: estimating a supply electric power amount at each time point in a prescribed area based on standard weather data for the area; estimating electric power supply composition indicating an electric power generation amount for each type of electric power generation occupied in the estimated supply electric power amount; and calculating a CO2 emission factor at each time point based on the estimated electric power supply composition.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an emission coefficient calculation method and an emission coefficient calculation program. [Background technology]

[0002] In recent years, in order to realize a carbon-neutral society, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted during the operation of a building is being evaluated. CO2 emissions can be calculated using a CO2 emission coefficient based on the annual average value published by an electric power company, for example, and the CO2 emissions of a building are calculated from the amount of electricity consumed during the operation of the building.

[0003] The CO2 emission coefficient is a coefficient that indicates the amount of CO2 emitted per unit of generated power, but since the amount of CO2 emitted from power generation differs depending on the type of power generation, the actual CO2 emission coefficient fluctuates depending on the power source mix. Specifically, for example, during sunny days, the ratio of solar power generation, which does not emit CO2, increases, so the CO2 emission coefficient decreases, whereas, for example, during rainy days or at night, the ratio of thermal power generation, which emits CO2, increases, so the CO2 emission coefficient increases.

[0004] Therefore, it is being considered to calculate the amount of CO2 emissions by taking into account the fluctuations in the supply and demand of electricity at each hour, and to dynamically evaluate the environmental value. That is, for example, it is being considered to calculate the amount of CO2 emissions of electricity consumers using data on the CO2 emission coefficient for each type of power source and data on the amount of electricity generated per unit time for each type of power source, and to obtain an evaluation index for the electricity consumption of electricity consumers (for example, Patent Document 1).

[0005] However, because the above-mentioned assessment of CO2 emissions is based on actual data such as the amount of power generated by each type of power source, there is a problem in that it is difficult to assess future CO2 emissions, for example, for buildings that are still in the design and planning stages. In other words, for periods when actual data is not available, the fluctuations in power supply and demand by time are unknown, and the power source composition ratio in power generation is also unknown, making it difficult to dynamically assess CO2 emissions. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0006] [Patent Document 1] Patent No. 7246659 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0007] An object of the present invention is to provide an emission factor calculation method and an emission factor calculation program that can dynamically evaluate CO2 emissions. [Means for solving the problem]

[0008] According to an emission coefficient calculation method according to one embodiment of the present invention, a computer executes a process of estimating the amount of electricity supplied at each hour in a specified area based on standard weather data for the area, estimating a power source configuration indicating the amount of electricity generated by each type of power generation in the estimated amount of electricity supplied, and calculating a CO2 emission coefficient at each hour based on the estimated power source configuration.

[0009] According to this method, the CO2 emission coefficient for each hour is calculated taking into account the amount of electricity generated by each type of electricity generation, making it possible to calculate the CO2 emissions associated with electricity consumption for each hour in accordance with the actual situation, and thus enabling a dynamic evaluation of CO2 emissions.

[0010] In addition, according to another aspect of the emission coefficient calculation method of the present invention, the estimation process estimates the amount of electricity supply at each hour by using an electricity supply estimation model that estimates the amount of electricity supply based on temperature data for each hour included in the standard weather data.

[0011] This method makes it possible to accurately estimate the amount of electricity supplied, taking into account the fluctuations in electricity consumption due to temperature.

[0012] In addition, according to an emission coefficient calculation method according to another aspect of the present invention, the estimation process estimates the amount of solar power generation for each hour by using a solar power generation estimation model that estimates the amount of solar power generation based on data on the amount of solar radiation for each hour included in the standard weather data.

[0013] This method makes it possible to accurately estimate the amount of solar power generation corresponding to the amount of solar radiation, and to appropriately estimate the power source mix.

[0014] According to an emission factor calculation method according to another aspect of the present invention, the estimation process estimates the amount of solar power generation, then estimates the amount of nuclear power generation, the amount of geothermal power generation, the amount of biomass power generation, and the amount of wind power generation, and after these estimations, estimates the amount of thermal power generation and the amount of hydroelectric power generation.

[0015] According to this method, the amount of thermal power generation and hydroelectric power generation, which can be adjusted relatively easily, are estimated last, so that it is possible to estimate a reasonable power source mix in which the total amount of power generated by all types of power generation is equal to the amount of power supply.

[0016] Furthermore, according to a CO2 emission assessment method according to one embodiment of the present invention, a computer executes a process of predicting the electricity consumption at each hour of the day in a building planned to be constructed in a specified area based on standard weather data for the area, estimating the electricity supply amount at each hour in the area based on the standard weather data, estimating a power source configuration indicating the amount of electricity generated by each type of electricity generation in the estimated electricity supply amount, calculating a CO2 emission coefficient at each hour of the day based on the estimated power source configuration, and calculating the CO2 emissions of the building using the predicted electricity consumption and the calculated CO2 emission coefficient.

[0017] According to this method, the electricity consumption of the planned building is predicted, the CO2 emission coefficient for each hour is calculated taking into account the amount of electricity generated by each type of electricity generation, and the CO2 emissions for each hour are calculated from the predicted electricity consumption and the CO2 emission coefficient, so that CO2 emissions that reflect the actual situation can be calculated and the CO2 emissions can be dynamically evaluated.

[0018] In addition, an emission coefficient calculation program according to one embodiment of the present invention causes a computer to execute a process of estimating the amount of electricity supplied at each hour in a specified area based on standard weather data for the area, estimating a power source configuration indicating the amount of electricity generated by each type of power generation in the estimated amount of electricity supplied, and calculating a CO2 emission coefficient at each hour based on the estimated power source configuration.

[0019] This program calculates the CO2 emission coefficient for each hour of the day by taking into account the amount of electricity generated by each type of electricity generation, making it possible to calculate the CO2 emissions associated with electricity consumption for each hour in accordance with the actual situation, and enabling a dynamic evaluation of CO2 emissions. Effect of the Invention

[0020] According to the present invention, the amount of CO2 emissions can be dynamically evaluated. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0021] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of an emission coefficient calculation device according to an embodiment. [Diagram 2] FIG. 2 is a flow diagram showing an emission coefficient calculation method according to one embodiment. [Diagram 3] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a specific example of an estimated power supply configuration. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a specific example of the calculation result of the CO2 emission coefficient. [Diagram 5] FIG. 5 is a flow diagram showing an example of a building evaluation method. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0022] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. The embodiment described below is merely an example, and should not be construed as being limited by this description.

[0023] 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of an emission coefficient calculation device 100 according to one embodiment. When standard weather data for a certain area (region) is input, this emission coefficient calculation device 100 estimates the hourly power source composition related to power generation in this area and calculates the CO2 emission coefficient for each hour. Therefore, even if there is no performance data on the power source composition, it is possible to calculate and evaluate the CO2 emissions for each hour.

[0024] The emission coefficient calculation device 100 shown in FIG. 1 includes a data storage unit 110, a condition input unit 120, a power supply amount estimation unit 130, a power source composition estimation unit 140, an emission coefficient calculation unit 150, and a result output unit 160.

[0025] The data storage unit 110 stores various data used to calculate the CO2 emission coefficient. Specifically, the data storage unit 110 stores weather data 111, power supply and demand data 112, and CO2 emission data 113.

[0026] The weather data 111 is past weather data for the entire country. For example, the temperature and the amount of solar radiation for a predetermined number of years are recorded for each hour in the weather data 111.

[0027] The power supply and demand data 112 is, for example, power supply and demand data provided by electric power companies nationwide, and includes data on the breakdown of power supplied in the past by type of power generation. The power supply and demand data 112 records the amount of power generated by each of thermal power generation, nuclear power generation, hydroelectric power generation, solar power generation, biomass power generation, geothermal power generation, and wind power generation, for example, among the amount of power supplied at each time.

[0028] The CO2 emission data 113 is data showing the CO2 emission coefficient for each type of power generation. The CO2 emission data 113 mainly includes data on the CO2 emission coefficient associated with fuel consumption in thermal power generation. Specifically, the CO2 emission data 113 records, for example, the CO2 emission coefficient by fuel, which indicates the amount of CO2 emitted when thermal power generation of a unit power generation amount is performed using oil, coal, and natural gas.

[0029] When calculating a CO2 emission coefficient for a certain area, the condition input unit 120 accepts input of standard weather data for the area for which the CO2 emission coefficient is to be calculated (hereinafter referred to as the "target area"). The standard weather data is virtual weather data for one year that is representative of the weather in the target area and is created from actual weather data, and includes temperature and solar radiation data for each hour in the target area. Such standard weather data is also used, for example, when simulating the energy consumption of a building to be constructed in the target area during the design and planning stages of the building.

[0030] The power supply amount estimation unit 130 determines a power supply estimation model for estimating power to be supplied to the target area based on the weather data 111 and the power supply and demand data 112 stored in the data storage unit 110. That is, the power supply amount estimation unit 130 determines a power supply estimation model for estimating the amount of power to be supplied from the date and time and the temperature by performing a multiple regression analysis using, for example, the date and time and the past temperature of the target area as explanatory variables and the amount of power previously supplied to the target area as a response variable. The power supply amount estimation unit 130 then applies the power supply estimation model to the standard weather data input to the condition input unit 120 to estimate the amount of power to be supplied to the target area for each hour.

[0031] The power source configuration estimation unit 140 estimates the power source configuration of the supply power amount estimated by the supply power amount estimation unit 130. That is, the power source configuration estimation unit 140 estimates the amount of power generation of each power generation type for each time of day in the power supplied to the target area.

[0032] Specifically, the power source configuration estimation unit 140 determines a photovoltaic power generation estimation model that estimates the amount of power generated by photovoltaic power generation in the target area based on the weather data 111 and the power supply and demand data 112 stored in the data storage unit 110. That is, the power source configuration estimation unit 140 determines a photovoltaic power generation estimation model that estimates the amount of photovoltaic power generation from the amount of solar radiation by performing a simple regression analysis with, for example, the amount of solar radiation in the target area in the past as an explanatory variable and the amount of power generated by photovoltaic power generation previously supplied to the target area as a target variable. Then, the power source configuration estimation unit 140 estimates the amount of photovoltaic power generation in the target area for each hour by applying the photovoltaic power generation estimation model to the standard weather data input to the condition input unit 120. In addition, the power source configuration estimation unit 140 estimates the amount of power generation for each hour for power generation types other than photovoltaic power generation based on the power supply and demand data 112, and estimates the power source configuration.

[0033] The emission coefficient calculation unit 150 calculates a CO2 emission coefficient for each time based on the amount of power supply estimated by the power supply amount estimation unit 130 and the power source mix estimated by the power source mix estimation unit 140. Specifically, the emission coefficient calculation unit 150 calculates the amount of CO2 emissions for each time in the target area by referring to the CO2 emission data 113, and calculates the CO2 emission coefficient for each time by dividing the total amount of CO2 emissions for all power generation types by the amount of power supply to the target area. In other words, the emission coefficient calculation unit 150 calculates the CO2 emission coefficient C at time t using the following formula (1): t Calculate.

number

[0034] However, in the above formula (1), M t denotes the total CO2 emissions at time t, and E i,t indicates the amount of power generated by power generation type i at time t. The total CO2 emissions M t To calculate this, the amount of CO2 emissions for each type of power generation in the power source mix is ​​calculated by multiplying the amount of power generated by each type of power generation by the CO2 emission coefficient for that type of power generation, and then the CO2 emissions for each type of power generation are summed up.

[0035] The result output unit 160 outputs the CO2 emission coefficient for each hour calculated by the emission coefficient calculation unit 150. The CO2 emission coefficient for each hour can be used in cases where the CO2 emission amount is dynamically evaluated by multiplying it by, for example, the predicted power consumption amount for each hour in the target area to calculate the CO2 emission amount for each hour that is in line with the actual situation.

[0036] Next, an emission coefficient calculation method using the emission coefficient calculation device 100 configured as above will be described with reference to a flow chart shown in FIG.

[0037] Prior to calculating the CO2 emission coefficient for each time, the power supply estimation model and the photovoltaic power generation estimation model to be used by the power supply amount estimation unit 130 and the power source configuration estimation unit 140 are determined. Specifically, the power supply amount estimation unit 130 refers to the weather data 111 and the power supply and demand data 112, and determines a power supply estimation model that estimates the power to be supplied to the target area (step S101). The power supply estimation model is a model that estimates the amount of power supply from the date, time, and temperature, and for example, the model shown in the following formula (2) can be used.

number

[0038] In equation (2), y is the amount of power supply, β0 is the intercept, and β n is the partial regression coefficient, x n indicates explanatory variables such as date and time and temperature. The amount of supplied power y is obtained from the power supply and demand data 112 in which the amount of supplied power for each time and each type of power generation is recorded. In addition, the explanatory variable x n For example, the variable may include a variable representing the month from January to December, a variable representing the day of the week (weekday, Saturday, or holiday), a variable representing the time (from midnight to 11:00 p.m.), and a variable representing the temperature, and is obtained from meteorological data 111 in which the temperature at each hour is recorded.

[0039] Meanwhile, the power source configuration estimation unit 140 refers to the weather data 111 and the power supply and demand data 112, and determines a photovoltaic power generation estimation model for estimating the amount of power generated by photovoltaic power generation in the target area (step S102). The photovoltaic power generation estimation model is a model for estimating the amount of photovoltaic power generation from the amount of solar radiation, and for example, a model shown in the following formula (3) can be used. y = βx (3)

[0040] In formula (3), y is the amount of solar power generation, β is the regression coefficient, and x is the amount of solar radiation, which is an explanatory variable. The amount of solar power generation y is obtained from the power supply and demand data 112 in which the amount of power supply for each time and each type of power generation is recorded. The amount of solar radiation x is obtained from the weather data 111 in which the amount of solar radiation for each time is recorded.

[0041] Note that, although the power supply estimation model and the solar power generation estimation model have been described here as being determined by regression analysis, the power supply estimation model and the solar power generation estimation model may be determined using machine learning.

[0042] When the power supply estimation model and the photovoltaic power generation estimation model are determined, the accuracy of each model is confirmed by the power supply amount estimation unit 130 and the power source configuration estimation unit 140 (step S103). That is, for example, the coefficient of determination of each model is calculated, and it is determined whether or not the coefficient of determination for each model satisfies a predetermined standard. If the result of this determination is that the accuracy of the model does not satisfy the predetermined standard, a different model may be determined, for example, by changing the explanatory variables.

[0043] When calculating the CO2 emission coefficient for each time, standard weather data for the target area is input to the condition input unit 120 (step S104). The standard weather data includes temperature and solar radiation data for each time that represents the target area.

[0044] Then, the power supply amount estimation unit 130 estimates the power supply amount for each hour in the target area by applying the power supply estimation model to the standard weather data (step S105). That is, the temperature data for each hour included in the standard weather data is input to the power supply estimation model of the above formula (2), for example, to estimate the power supply amount for each hour in the target area.

[0045] In addition, the power source configuration estimation unit 140 estimates the amount of solar power generation for each hour in the target area by applying the solar power generation model to the standard weather data (step S106). That is, the solar power generation for each hour in the target area is estimated by inputting the solar radiation amount data for each hour included in the standard weather data into the solar power generation estimation model of the above formula (3), for example.

[0046] Then, the power supply configuration estimation unit 140 estimates the power generation amount for each time for power generation types other than solar power generation, and estimates the power supply configuration for each time (step S107). Specifically, for example, for nuclear power generation, biomass power generation, geothermal power generation, and wind power generation, the past power generation amount recorded in the power supply and demand data 112 is used as a reference value, and for thermal power generation and hydroelectric power generation, the power generation amount is estimated so that the total of the power generation amounts of all power generation types is equal to the amount of supplied power. At this time, the ratio of the power generation amounts of thermal power generation and hydroelectric power generation may be adjusted so as to be equal to the ratio of the past power generation amounts recorded in the power supply and demand data 112.

[0047] By estimating the power source mix in this way, it is possible to obtain information on the fluctuations in the power source mix over time, which indicates the share of power generation by type of power generation in the total power supply, as shown in Figure 3. In this power source mix, the breakdown of the power supply is shown in accordance with the actual situation, for example, the proportion of solar power generation increases on sunny days.

[0048] Then, the emission coefficient calculation unit 150 calculates the CO2 emission coefficient for each hour by using the power source configuration (step S108). Specifically, as shown in the above formula (1), the CO2 emission coefficient for each hour is calculated by dividing the CO2 emission amount for each hour by the amount of power supply. For example, if the only type of power generation that emits CO2 is thermal power generation, the amount of thermal power generation for each hour is obtained from the power source configuration, and the amount of thermal power generation is multiplied by the CO2 emission coefficient for thermal power generation to obtain the CO2 emission amount in the numerator of the above formula (1). In addition, the amount of power supply for each hour in the target area estimated by the power supply amount estimation unit 130 can be used as the amount of power supply in the denominator of the above formula (1).

[0049] As a result of the calculation of the CO2 emission coefficient, a CO2 emission coefficient that varies with time in the target area is obtained, for example as shown in Fig. 4. This CO2 emission coefficient corresponds to the power source configuration of power generation in the target area, and can be used to dynamically evaluate the amount of CO2 emissions. Therefore, in order to evaluate the dynamic CO2 emissions, the result output unit 160 outputs the CO2 emission coefficient for each time (step S109).

[0050] Next, a specific example of a method for evaluating CO2 emissions using the CO2 emission coefficient for each time period will be described with reference to the flow chart shown in Figure 5. Here, the evaluation of CO2 emissions for buildings that are planned to be constructed in the target area will be explained.

[0051] For a planned building, an energy simulation is performed based on the building's operating conditions and specifications (step S201), and the amount of power consumption predicted to be consumed by the building at each time is calculated (step S202). Temperature data included in the standard weather data is used to calculate this amount of power consumption, and power consumption due to the use of air conditioning, for example, is predicted.

[0052] Meanwhile, using the above-mentioned emission coefficient calculation method, the amount of electricity supplied to the target area is estimated from standard weather data (step S203), the power source composition of the amount of electricity supplied is estimated (step S204), and the power source composition is used to calculate the CO2 emission coefficient for each hour of the day (step S205).

[0053] In this way, the same standard weather data is used to calculate the building's electricity consumption and the CO2 emission coefficient. Therefore, the electricity consumption and CO2 emission coefficient for each hour correspond to each other in a chronological order, enabling a consistent assessment of CO2 emissions.

[0054] After the power consumption and CO2 emission coefficient for each hour are calculated, the power consumption for each hour is multiplied by the CO2 emission coefficient for each hour to calculate the CO2 emission amount for each hour. Then, the CO2 emission amount of the building is evaluated based on the CO2 emission amount for each hour (step S206). In this way, by calculating the CO2 emission coefficient using the emission coefficient calculation method, the CO2 emission amount of the building under planning can be dynamically evaluated.

[0055] As described above, according to this embodiment, the power supply estimation model and the photovoltaic power generation estimation model are applied to standard weather data to estimate the amount of power supply and the power source composition for each hour in the target area, and the CO2 emission coefficient for each hour is calculated. Therefore, it is possible to calculate the CO2 emissions associated with power consumption in the target area for each hour in accordance with the actual situation, and the CO2 emissions can be dynamically evaluated.

[0056] The emission coefficient calculation method described in the above embodiment can also be written as a program executable by a computer. In this case, the program can be stored in a computer-readable, non-transitory recording medium and installed in the computer. Examples of such recording media include portable recording media such as CD-ROMs, DVD disks, and USB memory, and semiconductor memories such as flash memory. [Explanation of symbols]

[0057] 100 Emission factor calculation device 110 Data storage unit 120 Condition input section 130 Electricity Supply Estimation Department 140 Power supply configuration estimation section 150 Emission factor calculation section 160 Result output section

Claims

1. The computer Estimating the amount of electricity supplied at each hour in a specified area based on standard weather data for that area; Estimate the power source mix, which indicates the amount of power generated by each type of power generation in the estimated amount of power supply; Based on the estimated power source mix, 2 Calculate the emission factor The emission factor calculation method for performing the treatment.

2. The estimating process includes: The amount of electricity supplied at each hour is estimated using a power supply estimation model that estimates the amount of electricity supplied based on the temperature data at each hour included in the standard weather data. The emission coefficient calculation method according to claim 1 .

3. The estimating process includes: The amount of solar power generation for each hour is estimated using a solar power generation estimation model that estimates the amount of solar power generation based on the data of the amount of solar radiation for each hour included in the standard weather data. The emission coefficient calculation method according to claim 1 .

4. The estimating process includes: After estimating the amount of solar power generation, the amount of nuclear power generation, the amount of geothermal power generation, the amount of biomass power generation, and the amount of wind power generation are estimated, and after these estimates, the amount of thermal power generation and the amount of hydroelectric power generation are estimated. The emission coefficient calculation method according to claim 3.

5. The computer Based on standard weather data for a specified area, a forecast is made of hourly electricity consumption in a building that is planned to be constructed in the area; estimating the amount of electricity supplied at each hour in the area based on the standard weather data; Estimate the power source mix, which indicates the amount of power generated by each type of power generation in the estimated amount of power supply; Based on the estimated power source mix, 2 Calculate the emission factor, Predicted electricity consumption and calculated CO 2 and the emission factor to calculate the CO 2 Calculate your emissions CO that executes the process 2 Emissions assessment methodology.

6. On the computer, Estimating the amount of electricity supplied at each hour in a specified area based on standard weather data for that area; Estimate the power source mix, which indicates the amount of power generated by each type of power generation in the estimated amount of power supply; Based on the estimated power source mix, 2 Calculate the emission factor An emission factor calculation program that performs the process.

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