Wind state observation equipment arrangement assistance device and wind state observation equipment arrangement assistance method

Abstract

To assist selection of installation sites for wind state observation equipment.SOLUTION: A wind state observation equipment arrangement assistance device 100 includes a relational expression calculation unit 112 for calculating: a relational expression between an inter-prediction target site distance and wind state prediction accuracy, on the basis of observation sites where wind state observation equipment is installed and also on observation results of the wind state observation equipment, wherein the prediction target site is a site where a wind state thereof is predicted, and wherein the wind state prediction accuracy is a wind prediction accuracy at the prediction target site; or a relational expression between an inter-prediction target site distance and generated electric power amount prediction accuracy, on the basis of the observation sites where the wind state observation equipment is installed and also on observation results of the wind state observation equipment, wherein the prediction target site is a site where a generated electric power amount generated by wind power generation facility is predicted, and wherein the generated electric power amount prediction accuracy is prediction accuracy of the generated electric power amount at the prediction target site . The wind state observation equipment arrangement assistance device 100 also includes a permissible distance calculation unit 113 for calculating a permissible distance 122 between the predication target site and the observation site as of when predicting the wind state or the generated electric power amount on the basis of the relational expression and a requested accuracy 121 designated in prediction of the wind state or the generated electric power amount.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a wind condition observation instrument placement support device and a wind condition observation instrument placement support method that support the selection of a site for installing a wind condition observation instrument. [Background technology]

[0002] When installing a wind power generation facility, it is ideal to install a wind condition observation device at the candidate installation site to observe the wind conditions and predict the amount of generated power. Patent documents 1 and 2 describe the inventions related to the technology of the wind condition observation device. Patent Document 1 discloses a light wave laser device that can measure wind direction and speed and wind conditions with high accuracy for multiple observation spaces at different distances. Patent Document 2 discloses a wind condition prediction system that can improve the accuracy of weather prediction. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] JP 2005-351853 A [Patent Document 2] JP 2023-007932 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] In order to refine the evaluation of the business feasibility of wind power generation, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of the prediction of the amount of power generated. In order to improve the accuracy of the prediction of the amount of power generated, it is desirable to install a wind condition observation device at the candidate location of the wind power generation facility to observe the wind conditions. However, it is not always possible to install the wind condition observation device at the candidate location, and there are cases where it is necessary to install it around the candidate location. The greater the distance between the candidate location of the wind power generation facility and the installation location of the wind condition observation device, the greater the error in the wind condition prediction, and therefore the greater the error in the amount of power generated. Patent Documents 1 and 2 do not mention the relationship between distance and error.

[0005] Wind power generation has been introduced under promotion policies such as the Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) system and the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) system, and a large amount of wind observation results have been accumulated. Therefore, it would be useful to be able to determine, based on past observation results, how close wind observation equipment should be placed to potential wind power generation facilities in order to obtain sufficient prediction accuracy. The present invention has been made in view of the above background, and has an object to provide a wind condition observation equipment installation support device and a wind condition observation equipment installation support method that support the selection of installation sites for wind condition observation equipment. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device of the present invention comprises a relational equation calculation unit that calculates a relational equation between the distance between an observation point where a wind condition observation equipment is installed and a prediction target point where wind conditions are predicted based on the observation results of the wind condition observation equipment, and the wind condition prediction accuracy, which is the prediction accuracy of wind conditions at the prediction target point, or a relational equation between the distance between the observation point where a wind condition observation equipment is installed and a prediction target point where the power generation amount of a wind power generation facility is predicted based on the observation results of the wind condition observation equipment, and the power generation amount prediction accuracy, which is the prediction accuracy of the power generation amount at the prediction target point, and an allowable distance calculation unit that calculates the allowable distance between the prediction target point and the observation point when predicting wind conditions or power generation amount based on the required accuracy specified in the prediction of wind conditions or power generation amount and the relational equation. Effect of the Invention

[0007] According to the present invention, it is possible to provide a wind condition observation equipment installation support device and a wind condition observation equipment installation support method for supporting the selection of an installation site for a wind condition observation equipment. Problems, configurations, and effects other than those described above will become apparent from the description of the following embodiments. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0008] [Figure 1]1 is a functional block diagram of a wind condition observation instrument arrangement support device according to a first embodiment. FIG. [Diagram 2] FIG. 2 is a data configuration diagram of a wind condition observation result database according to the first embodiment. [Diagram 3] FIG. 4 is a data configuration diagram of a generated electric power amount database according to the first embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 2 is a data configuration diagram of a prediction result database according to the first embodiment. [Diagram 5] 4 is a graph for explaining a relational expression according to the first embodiment. [Figure 6] 4 is a flowchart of an allowable distance calculation process according to the first embodiment. [Figure 7] 4 is a flowchart of a wind condition observation device arrangement support process according to the first embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing a wind condition observation device arrangement screen according to the first embodiment. [Figure 9] 10 is a graph for explaining a relational expression according to a modified example of the first embodiment. [Figure 10] FIG. 11 is a functional block diagram of a wind condition observation instrument arrangement support device according to a second embodiment. [Figure 11] 13 is a graph for explaining a relational expression according to the second embodiment. [Figure 12] 10 is a flowchart of an allowable distance calculation process according to the second embodiment. [Figure 13] 13 is a flowchart of a wind condition observation device arrangement support process according to the second embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0009] The wind condition observation equipment placement support device will be described below as a form (embodiment) for carrying out the present invention. Based on wind condition observation data and generated power data, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device determines the relationship between the distance between the candidate position of the wind power generation facility and the installation position of the wind condition observation equipment, and the prediction accuracy (prediction error) of the wind conditions and generated power. Next, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device calculates the allowable distance between the candidate position and the installation position based on the required prediction accuracy (required accuracy, or allowable prediction error). Next, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device outputs the allowable installation position (candidate placement area) of the wind condition observation equipment. In other words, it displays a circle with the candidate position as its center and the allowable distance as its radius.

[0010] Users of such a wind condition observation equipment placement support device can know the range of installation positions (candidate placement area) for wind condition observation equipment with the required accuracy, and can install wind condition observation equipment at desirable points within that range. For example, if there is overlap in the ranges of installation positions for wind condition observation equipment for multiple wind power generation facilities, the number of installations can be reduced by installing wind condition observation equipment there, and the cost of observation can be reduced.

[0011] <Configuration of the wind observation equipment placement support device> 1 is a functional block diagram of a wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100 according to the first embodiment. The wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100 is a computer, and includes a control unit 110, a storage unit 120, and an input / output unit 180. User interface devices such as a display, keyboard, and mouse are connected to the input / output unit 180. The input / output unit 180 may include a communication device, and may be capable of transmitting and receiving data to and from other devices. A media drive may also be connected to the input / output unit 180, and data may be exchanged using a recording medium.

[0012] <Wind condition observation equipment placement support device: memory section> The storage unit 120 includes storage devices such as a read only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a solid state drive (SSD), etc. The storage unit 120 stores a required accuracy 121, an allowable distance 122, a wind condition observation result database 130, a generated power amount database 140, a prediction result database 150, and a program 128. The program 128 includes a description of an allowable distance calculation process (see FIG. 6) described later.

[0013] <<Memory section: required accuracy and allowable accuracy>> The required accuracy 121 is an accuracy required (specified) for predicting wind conditions and power generation amount. The required accuracy 121 is set by a user of the wind condition observation equipment arrangement support device 100. The allowable distance 122 is a distance between the candidate location of the wind power generation facility and the installation location of the wind condition observation instrument that satisfies the required accuracy 121. The wind condition observation instrument arrangement support device 100 calculates the allowable distance 122 based on the required accuracy 121.

[0014] <Storage section: Wind condition observation results database> FIG. 2 is a data configuration diagram of the wind condition observation result database 130 according to the first embodiment. The wind condition observation result database 130 includes wind condition observation result data acquired from each wind condition observation device. The wind condition observation result data includes identification information, a location (latitude and longitude), and the wind condition observation device as metadata. The wind condition observation result data also includes wind conditions at heights of 50 m and 59 m in a predetermined cycle. The predetermined cycle is, for example, 10 minutes. The wind conditions include the wind speed average, wind speed standard deviation, wind direction, and data acquisition rate. The data acquisition rate is the proportion of time during which data was acquired during a period of a predetermined cycle length from the time indicated by the date and time. The wind condition observation result data may include a table (summary table) of the cumulative time that the wind blew by wind direction and wind speed in a month or year, in addition to the time series data of the wind conditions shown in FIG. 2.

[0015] <Memory section: Power generation amount database> FIG. 3 is a data configuration diagram of the power generation amount database 140 according to the first embodiment. The power generation amount database 140 includes power generation amount data acquired from each wind power generation facility. The power generation amount data includes identification information, location, model, and power curve as metadata. The power curve is a relationship between wind speed and power generation output. As the wind speed increases, the power generation output increases, but there is an upper limit. When the wind speed exceeds a predetermined wind speed, the rotation speed of the windmill is reduced to avoid damage or breakdown of the wind power generation facility, so the power generation output decreases. The predetermined period is, for example, 10 minutes. The power generation amount for the 10 minutes can be obtained by multiplying the power generation output by 10 / 60. The power generation amount data also includes the wind speed, wind direction, power generation amount, and data acquisition rate in the predetermined period.

[0016] <Memory section: Prediction result database> 4 is a data configuration diagram of the prediction result database 150 according to the first embodiment. The prediction result database 150 contains power generation amount prediction result data including a monthly power generation amount predicted based on wind conditions acquired from a wind condition observation device, actual power generation amount, and prediction accuracy (prediction accuracy). Note that the power generation amount is the amount of power generated by a wind power generation facility located at a different location from the installation location of the wind condition observation device.

[0017] The power generation forecast result data includes, as metadata, the forecast model used for the forecast, identification information for the wind observation result data on which the forecast is based (see Fig. 2), and identification information for the actual power generation data (see Fig. 3). Forecast models include the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes model (RANS) and the spatially averaged model (Large Eddy Simulation, LES). In Fig. 4, the forecast accuracy is shown based on the monthly power generation amount, but the forecast accuracy may also be shown based on the annual power generation amount (Annual Energy Production, AEP).

[0018] The prediction result database 150 also includes wind condition prediction result data (not shown) including predictions, actual results, and prediction accuracy (prediction accuracy) of wind conditions at locations different from the wind condition observation device, which are predicted based on wind conditions acquired from the wind condition observation device. The wind condition prediction result data has the same configuration as the power generation prediction result data. The wind conditions may be monthly wind conditions or annual wind conditions.

[0019] The wind conditions (wind condition index) include, for example, average wind speed, turbulence intensity, Weibull distribution of wind speed, frequency of wind direction occurrence, and wind rose. The wind condition forecast result data includes, as metadata, the forecast model used for the forecast, identification information for the wind condition observation result data on which the forecast is based (see Fig. 2), and identification information for the wind condition observation result data which is the actual results. These two pieces of wind condition observation result data are wind condition observation result data at different positions. The forecast model is the same as the power generation forecast result data, and is, for example, RANS or LES.

[0020] <Wind condition observation equipment placement support device: control unit> Returning to FIG. 1, the control unit 110 will be described. The control unit 110 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and is provided with a prediction unit 111, a relational expression calculation unit 112, an allowable distance calculation unit 113, and a placement unit 114. The control unit 110 may include a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), etc.

[0021] <Control unit: Prediction unit> The prediction unit 111 predicts the monthly power generation amount of the wind power generation facility based on the wind condition observation result data of the wind condition observation device using a prediction model. The wind condition observation device and the wind power generation facility are located in different locations. The prediction unit 111 stores the predicted power generation amount and the actual power generation amount of the wind power generation facility (see FIG. 3) as power generation amount prediction result data in the prediction result database 150 (see FIG. 4). Next, the prediction unit 111 calculates the prediction accuracy and stores it in the power generation amount prediction result data.

[0022] Furthermore, the prediction unit 111 predicts monthly wind conditions at a location of a wind condition observation device that is located different from the wind condition observation device, based on the wind condition observation result data of the wind condition observation device using the prediction model. The prediction unit 111 stores the predicted wind conditions and the wind condition observation results (see FIG. 2) acquired from the wind condition observation device at the different location as wind condition prediction result data in the prediction result database 150. Next, the prediction unit 111 calculates the prediction accuracy and stores it in the wind condition prediction result data.

[0023] <Control unit: Relational equation calculation unit> The relational equation calculation unit 112 calculates a relational equation which is a mathematical expression showing the relationship between distance and accuracy (prediction accuracy). FIG. 5 is a graph for explaining the relational equation according to the first embodiment. The horizontal axis of the graph is distance, and the vertical axis is accuracy. The points (black circles) indicate the distance and accuracy included in the prediction result database 150. The distance is the distance between the position of the wind condition observation device that was input to the prediction unit 111 and the position of the wind power generation facility or the wind condition observation device related to the prediction result. The positions of the wind power generation facility and the wind condition observation device are included in the wind condition observation result database 130 (see FIG. 2) and the power generation amount database 140 (see FIG. 3).

[0024] In this embodiment, the distance is a straight-line distance on a two-dimensional plane (on a map), but it may be a straight-line distance in a three-dimensional space. It may also be a distance (such as a path) along the undulating terrain such as mountains and valleys. In a second embodiment described later, a relational expression indicating the relationship between distance and accuracy is calculated using terrain complexity that takes into account the altitude and terrain classification of the terrain.

[0025] In the first embodiment, the relational expression is a mathematical expression that shows a dotted line graph that fits the points. The relational expression is a mathematical expression in which the accuracy decreases as the distance increases. The relational expression is a mathematical expression of the form shown in the following formulas (1) to (4), for example, where the distance is D, the accuracy is A, and α and β are constants. Note that tanh in formula (4) is a hyperbolic tangent function.

[0026] A=α / D+β (1) A=e α·(-D) +β (2) A = β / (1+e α·D ) (3) A = tanh(α·(-D)) + β (4)

[0027] The relational equation calculation unit 112 obtains a relational equation between distance and accuracy by calculating constants α and β using, for example, the least squares method based on the data included in the prediction result database 150. The relational equation calculation unit 112 calculates a relational equation that fits the power generation prediction result data and the wind condition prediction result data included in the prediction result database 150. Note that the relational equation calculation unit 112 may calculate a relational equation that fits each of the data (points) of the power generation prediction result data and the wind condition prediction result data.

[0028] <Control unit: Allowable distance calculation unit> The allowable distance calculation unit 113 uses a relational expression to calculate the allowable distance 122 based on the required accuracy 121. To explain in detail, the allowable distance calculation unit 113 calculates the distance D at which the accuracy A becomes the required accuracy 121, and sets the distance D as the allowable distance 122 (see FIG. 5).

[0029] <Control unit: Placement unit> The placement unit 114 accepts candidate locations for wind power generation equipment input by the user, and outputs a wind condition observation equipment placement screen 510 (see Figure 8 described below) showing the candidate location and a circle with a radius of the allowable distance 122 centered on the candidate location to a display connected to the input / output unit 180.

[0030] As described above, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100 is equipped with a relational equation calculation unit 112 that calculates a relational equation between the distance between the observation point where the wind condition observation equipment is installed (location where the wind condition observation equipment is installed) and the prediction target point (location where the wind condition observation equipment is installed) where wind conditions are predicted based on the observation results of the wind condition observation equipment, and the wind condition prediction accuracy, which is the prediction accuracy of the wind conditions at the prediction target point, or a relational equation between the distance between the observation point where the wind condition observation equipment is installed and the prediction target point (location of the wind power generation equipment) where the power generation amount of the wind power generation equipment is predicted based on the observation results of the wind condition observation equipment, and the power generation amount prediction accuracy, which is the prediction accuracy of the power generation amount at the prediction target point.

[0031] The wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100 also has an allowable distance calculation unit 113 that calculates the allowable distance 122 between the prediction target point and the observation point when predicting the wind conditions or the amount of power generation based on the required accuracy 121 specified in the prediction of the wind conditions or the amount of power generation and a relational equation. Furthermore, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100 has a placement unit 114 that accepts candidate locations for wind power generation equipment and displays a circle with the candidate location as its center and the allowable distance 122 as its radius (see wind condition observation equipment placement screen 510 in Figure 8 described below).

[0032] <Allowable distance calculation process> Fig. 6 is a flowchart of the allowable distance calculation process according to the first embodiment. A process of calculating the distance between the installation position of the wind condition observation device at which an accuracy satisfying the preset required accuracy 121 can be obtained and the location of the wind power generation facility or the installation position of the wind condition observation device will be described with reference to Fig. 6. Note that at the start of the allowable distance calculation process, wind condition observation result data has been stored in the wind condition observation result database 130, and generated power amount data has been stored in the generated power amount database 140.

[0033] In step S11, the relational expression calculation unit 112 accepts a prediction accuracy index specified by a user using a user interface device connected to the input / output unit 180. The prediction accuracy index includes the amount of generated power as well as the average wind speed and the frequency of occurrence of wind direction as wind condition indexes.

[0034] In step S12, the relational expression calculation unit 112 calculates pairs (combinations) of data (input data) on which the prediction is based and data (output data) of the prediction result as input / output pairs for the prediction. For example, if the prediction accuracy index specified in step S11 is the amount of generated power, the input data is wind condition observation result data, and the output data is the amount of generated power. Note that the acquisition position of the input data is different from the acquisition position of the output data (the position of the wind power generation equipment). Also, if the specified prediction accuracy index is a wind condition index, both the input data and the output data are wind condition observation result data, but the acquisition positions (the installation positions of the wind condition observation equipment) are different. Suppose there are five pieces of wind condition observation result data and three pieces of generated power data. If the prediction accuracy index is a wind condition index, there will be 20 input / output pairs (5P2). If the prediction accuracy index is the amount of generated power, there will be 15 input / output pairs (5×3).

[0035] In step S13, the relational expression calculation section 112 starts the process of repeating steps S14 to S15 for each input / output pair (input data and output data) calculated in step S12. In step S14, the prediction unit 111 calculates (predicts) output data based on the input data using the prediction model, and stores the output data in the prediction column of the prediction result database 150 (see FIG. 4). In step S15, the prediction unit 111 obtains actual results corresponding to the output data and stores them in the actual results column of the prediction result database 150. The actual results can be obtained from the wind condition observation result database 130 (see FIG. 2) or the power generation amount database 140 (see FIG. 3). Furthermore, the prediction unit 111 compares the prediction with the actual results to calculate the accuracy, and stores the accuracy in the prediction result database 150.

[0036] In step S16, the relational expression calculation unit 112 calculates the relational expression (see FIG. 5). In step S17, the allowable distance calculation unit 113 calculates the allowable distance 122 corresponding to the required accuracy 121 based on the relational expression calculated in step S16.

[0037] <Wind observation equipment placement support processing> 7 is a flowchart of the wind condition observation instrument placement support process according to the first embodiment. It is assumed that the allowable distance 122 has already been calculated at the start of the wind condition observation instrument placement support process. In step S21, the placement unit 114 receives candidate positions for the wind power generation facility designated by the user via a user interface device connected to the input / output unit 180.

[0038] In step S22, the placement unit 114 outputs a wind condition observation device placement screen 510 to a display connected to the input / output unit 180. Fig. 8 is a diagram showing the wind condition observation device placement screen 510 according to the first embodiment. The placement unit 114 displays a mark indicating the candidate position specified in step S21 on the map. The placement unit 114 also displays a circle with the candidate position as its center and the allowable distance 122 as its radius as a placement candidate area for the wind condition observation device. When there are multiple candidate positions and the circles overlap, the placement unit 114 highlights and displays the overlapping area 511. For example, the placement unit 114 highlights and displays the area 511 by hatching it.

[0039] As described above, when the placement unit 114 receives multiple candidate positions, it displays multiple circles with each candidate position as its center and the allowable distance 122 as its radius, and if there is any overlap between the circles, it highlights the overlap (see FIG. 8).

[0040] <Features of the wind observation placement support device> Based on the wind condition observation result data and the power generation amount data, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100 determines the relationship between the distance between the candidate position of the wind power generation facility where the power generation amount is predicted and the installation position of the wind condition observation equipment, and the prediction accuracy. Based on the wind condition observation result data, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100 also determines the relationship between the distance between the position where the wind condition is predicted and the installation position of the wind condition observation equipment, and the prediction accuracy. Next, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100 calculates the allowable distance 122 based on the required accuracy 121. Next, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100 outputs the allowable installation position (candidate placement area) of the wind condition observation equipment.

[0041] A user of such a wind condition observation instrument placement assistance device 100 can know the range (candidate placement area) of installation positions for wind condition observation instruments with the required accuracy 121, and can place the wind condition observation instruments at desirable locations within that range. For example, if there is overlap in the ranges of installation positions for wind condition observation instruments for multiple wind power generation facilities (see area 511 in FIG. 8), the number of installations can be reduced by placing the wind condition observation instruments there, and the cost of observation can be reduced.

[0042] <<Variation: Multiple prediction accuracy indicators>> In the above embodiment, there is one prediction accuracy index (see step S11 in FIG. 6). There may be multiple prediction accuracy indexes. The wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100 calculates a relational expression and an allowable distance for each of the multiple prediction accuracy indexes (see steps S16 and S17). In the wind condition observation equipment placement support process (see FIG. 7), the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100 may display the wind condition observation equipment placement screen 510 with the smallest allowable distance among the calculated allowable distances as the allowable distance. In this way, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100 can show candidate placement areas for wind condition observation equipment that satisfy the required accuracy for the multiple prediction accuracy indexes.

[0043] <<Variation: Confidence interval of accuracy>> The relational expression calculation unit 112 may also calculate the confidence interval when calculating the relational expression. FIG. 9 is a graph for explaining the relational expression according to the modified example of the first embodiment. The dotted line graph is a graph showing the relationship between the distance and the accuracy described in the first embodiment. The dashed line graph is a graph showing the confidence interval with a confidence coefficient of 95%, for example. The allowable distance calculation unit 113 calculates the allowable distance that satisfies the required accuracy based on the dashed line graph below (lower accuracy side) the dotted line graph showing the relationship. In this way, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100 can calculate the allowable distance with the confidence level, and can also show the placement candidate area (see FIG. 8) of the wind condition observation equipment with the confidence level.

[0044] As described above, the relational equation calculating unit 112 calculates the confidence interval of the wind condition prediction accuracy corresponding to the distance (the distance between the installation position of the wind condition observation equipment and the location of the wind power generation facility or the installation position of the wind condition observation equipment) (see FIG. 9). The allowable distance calculation unit 113 calculates the allowable distance based on the confidence interval and the required accuracy 121 .

[0045] <Modification: Relational formula> In the above embodiment, the relational equation calculation unit 112 calculates a relational equation that fits the power generation amount prediction result data and the wind condition prediction result data included in the prediction result database 150. The relational equation calculation unit 112 may calculate a relational equation that fits each of the data (points) of the power generation amount prediction result data and the wind condition prediction result data.

[0046] In this way, when there are two relational expressions for the power generation amount prediction and the wind condition prediction, the allowable distance calculation unit 113 calculates two allowable distances. The arrangement unit 114 displays the arrangement candidate area on the wind condition observation device arrangement screen 510 (see FIG. 8) by taking the shorter of the two allowable distances as the allowable distance.

[0047] Second Embodiment The terrain complexity may be taken into consideration when calculating the relational expression. Fig. 10 is a functional block diagram of a wind condition observation instrument arrangement support device 100A according to the second embodiment. Compared to the wind condition observation instrument arrangement support device 100 (see Fig. 1) of the first embodiment, the control unit 110 is provided with a terrain complexity calculation unit 115, and the storage unit 120 is provided with a terrain information database 160.

[0048] The terrain information database 160 stores information related to the terrain around the installation positions of the wind condition observation instruments and around the candidate positions of the wind power generation facilities. The terrain complexity calculation unit 115 calculates the terrain complexity, which indicates the complexity of the shape of the earth's surface, by referring to the terrain information database 160. The following are basic indices for determining the terrain complexity: altitude, roughness length, micro-topography classification, distance from the coastline or lakeshore line, relief, RIX, C CTIn addition, the areas around the installation locations of wind observation equipment and the areas around the candidate locations of wind power generation facilities are simply referred to as "locations."

[0049] Terrain Complexity: Elevation The topographical complexity calculation unit 115 determines that the topographical complexity is small if the elevation of the point is lower than a predetermined value, and determines that the topographical complexity is large if the elevation is higher.

[0050] <Terrain complexity: roughness length> The roughness length is a value indicating the roughness of the earth's surface. For example, the roughness length of a water surface is 0.0002, and the roughness length of a forest is 0.4. The terrain complexity calculation unit 115 determines that the terrain complexity is small if the roughness length is smaller than a predetermined value, and large if the roughness length is larger than a predetermined value.

[0051] <Terrain Complexity: Micro-Terrain Classification> The National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience has published the micro-topography classifications in 250m mesh. The micro-topography classifications include "mountainous region," "hills," "rocky plateau," "fan-shaped plain," "sand dune," "reclaimed land," and "riverside." The topography complexity calculation unit 115 determines the topography complexity based on the micro-topography classification. For example, if the point is a "mountainous region," the topography complexity calculation unit 115 determines the topography complexity as high, and if it is a "sand dune," it determines the topography complexity as low.

[0052] Terrain Complexity: Distance from coastline or lake shoreline Four ground surface roughness classifications, I to IV, are defined according to the height of the building and the distance from the coastline or lakeshoreline (Ministry of Construction Notification No. 1454 of 2000, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Notification No. 1437 of 2020). For example, if the height of the building exceeds 31 m, the ground surface roughness classification is II if the distance from the coastline or lakeshoreline is within 500 m, and III if it is more than 500 m. The hub height of a wind power generation facility is about 100 m. For example, the terrain complexity calculation unit 115 determines that the terrain complexity is small when the ground surface roughness classification is I or II, and large when it is III or IV.

[0053] Terrain Complexity: Roughness The amount of undulation is the difference in altitude between the highest point and the lowest point in a mesh when the terrain is divided into meshes. The terrain complexity calculation unit 115 determines that the terrain complexity is small if the amount of undulation is smaller than a predetermined value, and large if it is larger.

[0054] Terrain Complexity: RIX RIX (Ruggedness Index) is the percentage of directions where the gradient is equal to or greater than a predetermined value when the gradient is calculated for each direction (e.g., divided into 72 parts every 5 degrees). The predetermined value is, for example, 0.3 (30% gradient, or about 17 degrees in terms of inclination). For example, the terrain complexity calculation unit 115 determines that the terrain complexity is low when RIX is less than 10%, and high when it is 10% or more.

[0055] <Terrain Complexity: C CT ≫ C CT The Turbulence Structure Correction Parameter (TSC) is an index used in the wind farm certification (land-based wind power plant edition) of the Japan Maritime Association. The terrain complexity calculation unit 115 calculates the C CT If either is less than 1.05, the terrain is judged to be flat and the terrain complexity is low, and if either is 1.05 or more, the terrain is judged to be complex and the terrain complexity is high.

[0056] Second embodiment: Relational expression calculation unit The relational equation calculation unit 112 calculates a relational equation that is a mathematical formula showing the relationship between distance and accuracy for each level of terrain complexity. Fig. 11 is a graph for explaining the relational equation according to the second embodiment. Black circles indicate the distance and accuracy when the level of terrain complexity is high, and white circles indicate the distance and accuracy when the level of terrain complexity is low. As shown in Fig. 11, the smaller the level of terrain complexity, the higher the accuracy. The relational equation calculation unit 112 finds a relational equation when the level of terrain complexity is low (see the dashed line graph) and a relational equation when the level of terrain complexity is high (see the dotted line graph).

[0057] Second embodiment: allowable distance calculation unit The allowable distance calculation unit 113 uses a relational expression to determine an allowable distance 122 for each of the cases where the terrain complexity is low and high, based on a required accuracy 121 (see FIG. 11).

[0058] Second embodiment: placement unit The placement unit 114 displays a wind condition observation equipment placement screen 510 that displays a placement candidate area having a radius of an allowable distance corresponding to the installation position of the wind condition observation equipment and the topographical complexity of the candidate locations of the wind power generation facility.

[0059] As described above, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100A is equipped with a terrain complexity calculation unit 115 that calculates the terrain complexity indicating the complexity of the earth's surface based on the terrain surrounding the observation point (the installation location of the wind condition observation equipment) and the prediction target point (the installation location of the wind condition observation equipment or the location of the wind power generation equipment), and the terrain complexity around the candidate site for the wind power generation equipment.

[0060] The relational expression calculation unit 112 calculates the relational expression for each classification (large and small) of terrain complexity. The allowable distance calculation unit 113 calculates an allowable distance 122 for each classification of terrain complexity based on the relational expression and required accuracy 121 (see FIG. 11). The placement unit 114 displays a circle having a radius equal to the allowable distance corresponding to the classification of the terrain complexity around the candidate position of the wind power generation facility.

[0061] Second embodiment: allowable distance calculation process FIG. 12 is a flowchart of the allowable distance calculation process according to the second embodiment. In step S31, the relational expression calculation unit 112 receives a prediction accuracy index and an index on which the terrain complexity is based (such as altitude or roughness length) designated by the user. Step S32 is similar to step S12 in FIG.

[0062] In step S33, the relational expression calculation section 112 starts the process of repeating steps S34 to S36 for each input / output pair (input data and output data) calculated in step S32. Steps S34 and S35 are similar to steps S14 and S15. In step S36, the terrain complexity calculation unit 115 calculates the terrain complexity of the point (the position of the wind condition observation equipment or the wind power generation facility) corresponding to the input / output pair.

[0063] In step S37, the relational expression calculation unit 112 starts the process of repeating steps S38 to S39 for each terrain complexity (large and small). Hereinafter, the terrain complexity (large or small) that is the target of this repeated process is referred to as a terrain complexity to be processed. In step S38, the relational expression calculation unit 112 calculates a relational expression relating to an input / output pair for which the terrain complexity calculated in step S36 is the processing target terrain complexity. In step S39, the allowable distance calculation unit 113 calculates the allowable distance 122 corresponding to the required accuracy 121 based on the relational expression calculated in step S38. This allowable distance 122 is an allowable distance according to the complexity of the terrain to be processed.

[0064] <<Second embodiment: Wind condition observation equipment placement support process>> FIG. 13 is a flowchart of a wind condition observation device arrangement support process according to the second embodiment. In step S41, the placement unit 114 accepts candidate locations for the wind power generation facility designated by the user. In step S42, the terrain complexity calculation unit 115 calculates the terrain complexity around the candidate position accepted in step S41.

[0065] In step S43, the arrangement unit 114 outputs the wind condition observation equipment arrangement screen 510 to a display connected to the input / output unit 180. The radius of the circle indicating the arrangement candidate area on the wind condition observation equipment arrangement screen 510 is the allowable distance according to the terrain complexity calculated in step S42 (see step S39).

[0066] <<Second embodiment: Features of the wind condition observation arrangement support device>> The wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100A calculates the relational expression and the allowable distance according to the terrain complexity. The wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100A also outputs the allowable installation position (placement candidate area) of the wind condition observation equipment according to the terrain complexity of the candidate location of the wind power generation facility. Compared to the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100A can calculate the placement candidate area with higher accuracy by taking into account the terrain complexity.

[0067] Variation: Terrain Complexity In the above embodiment, the terrain complexity is large or small, but it may be divided into smaller categories such as large, medium, and small. By dividing the terrain complexity into smaller categories, it is possible to calculate the arrangement candidate area with higher accuracy.

[0068] <<Variation: Indicators based on multiple terrain complexity>> In the above embodiment, the terrain complexity is based on one index (see step S31 in FIG. 12). The terrain complexity may be based on multiple indexes. The wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100A calculates a relational expression and an allowable distance for each of the multiple indices that are the basis of the terrain complexity (see steps S37 to S39 in FIG. 12). In the wind condition observation equipment placement support process (see FIG. 13), the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100A may display the wind condition observation equipment placement screen 510 with the minimum allowable distance among the calculated allowable distances as the allowable distance. In this way, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100A can show a candidate placement area for a wind condition observation equipment that satisfies the required accuracy for the multiple indices that are the basis of the terrain complexity.

[0069] In addition to the multiple indices on which the terrain complexity is based, multiple prediction accuracy indices may be used. The wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100A may calculate the allowable distance for each combination of the indices on which the terrain complexity is based and the prediction accuracy indices. The radius of the circle showing the placement candidate area on the wind condition observation equipment placement screen 510 may be set to the minimum allowable distance.

[0070] Other variations Although several embodiments of the present invention have been described above, these embodiments are merely illustrative and do not limit the technical scope of the present invention. For example, the wind condition observation equipment arrangement support device 100, 100A calculates the prediction accuracy on a monthly basis (see the prediction result database 150 in FIG. 4), but it may also calculate it on a bimonthly or annual basis.

[0071] The wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100, 100A includes a prediction unit 111 and creates a prediction result database 150. Alternatively, the wind condition observation equipment placement support device 100, 100A may calculate the relational expression and the allowable distance by referring to the prediction result database 150 created by another device by predicting the wind conditions and the amount of power generation.

[0072] The present invention can take various other embodiments, and furthermore, various modifications such as omissions and substitutions can be made without departing from the gist of the present invention. These embodiments and modifications are included in the scope and gist of the invention described in this specification, etc., and are included in the scope of the invention described in the claims and their equivalents. [Explanation of symbols]

[0073] 100,100A Wind observation equipment placement support device 111 Prediction Department 112 Relational equation calculation section 113 Allowable distance calculation unit 114 Placement section 115 Terrain Complexity Calculation Unit 121 Required accuracy 122 Allowable Distance 128 Programs 130 Wind observation results database 140 Power Generation Database 150 Prediction Results Database 160 Topographical Information Database 510 Wind observation equipment layout screen

Claims

1. A relational expression between the distance between an observation point where a wind condition observation device is installed and a prediction target point where wind conditions are predicted based on the observation results of the wind condition observation device, and the wind condition prediction accuracy, which is the prediction accuracy of the wind conditions at the prediction target point, or a relational expression calculation unit that calculates a relational expression between a distance between an observation point where a wind condition observation device is installed and a prediction target point where the amount of power generated by the wind power generation facility is predicted based on the observation results of the wind condition observation device, and a power generation amount prediction accuracy that is a prediction accuracy of the amount of power generated at the prediction target point; and an allowable distance calculation unit that calculates an allowable distance between the prediction target point and the observation point when predicting the wind conditions or the amount of generated power based on a required accuracy specified in the prediction of the wind conditions or the amount of generated power and the relational expression. Wind observation equipment placement support device.

2. The wind power generation system further includes a placement unit that receives a candidate position for the wind power generation facility and displays a circle having the candidate position as a center and the allowable distance as a radius. The wind condition observation equipment arrangement support device according to claim 1.

3. The placement unit is When the plurality of candidate positions are received, a plurality of circles are displayed with the candidate positions as centers and the permissible distance as radii, If the circles overlap, the overlap is highlighted. The wind condition observation equipment arrangement support device according to claim 2.

4. A terrain complexity calculation unit is further provided for calculating a terrain complexity indicating a degree of complexity of the earth's surface based on the terrain around the observation point and the prediction target point, and a terrain complexity around the candidate point for the wind power generation facility, The relational expression calculation unit is Calculating the relational expression for each of the terrain complexity categories; The allowable distance calculation unit Calculating the allowable distance for each of the terrain complexity categories based on the relational expression and the required accuracy; The placement unit is A circle having a radius of the allowable distance corresponding to the classification of the terrain complexity around the candidate location of the wind power generation facility is displayed. The wind condition observation equipment arrangement support device according to claim 2.

5. The relational expression calculation unit is Calculating a confidence interval of the wind condition forecast accuracy corresponding to the distance; The allowable distance calculation unit Calculating the allowable distance based on the confidence interval and the required accuracy The wind condition observation equipment arrangement support device according to claim 1.

6. Wind observation equipment placement support device, A relational expression between the distance between an observation point where a wind condition observation device is installed and a prediction target point where wind conditions are predicted based on the observation results of the wind condition observation device, and the wind condition prediction accuracy, which is the prediction accuracy of the wind conditions at the prediction target point, or A step of calculating a relational expression between the distance between an observation point where a wind condition observation device is installed and a prediction target point where the amount of power generated by the wind power generation facility is predicted based on the observation results of the wind condition observation device, and the power generation amount prediction accuracy which is the prediction accuracy of the amount of power generated at the prediction target point; and calculating an allowable distance between the prediction target point and the observation point when predicting the wind condition or the amount of generated power based on a required accuracy specified in the prediction of the wind condition or the amount of generated power and the relational expression. A method to assist in the placement of wind observation equipment.

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