Forest management planning support system

Abstract

To support creation and updating of forest management plans that may satisfy the carbon credit program requirements even when updating the plans in the future.SOLUTION: A forest management planning support system includes a permanence guarantee requirement confirmation unit 11 for determining whether permanence guarantee requirements can be satisfied for a forest management plan 2 input by an applicant, and a forest management draft plan creation unit 12 that when the forest management plan 2 does not satisfy the permanence guarantee requirements, creates a forest management draft plan 3 satisfying the permanence guarantee requirements. The permanence guarantee requirement confirmation unit 11 accepts input of a determination result by the applicant as to whether the forest management plan 2 can satisfy the requirements stipulated by the carbon credit system even when the forest management plan 2 is updated, and the forest management draft plan creation unit 12 accepts input from the applicant regarding a forest land that is difficult to operate out of the forest lands within a scope of the plan of the forest management plan 2, and creates a forest management plan draft 3 excluding the operationally-difficult forest lands from the forest lands within the scope of the plan.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a technology for promoting the creation of carbon credits, and more particularly to a technology effective when applied to a forest management plan creation support system that supports the creation of a forest management plan that meets the institutional requirements of carbon credits.

Background Art

[0002] Carbon credit is one of the means to achieve a state (net zero) in which the balance between emissions and removals of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide is achieved. Carbon credit is a tradable credit between companies by crediting the amount of greenhouse gas emissions reduction / absorption as an emission right. A company that purchases carbon credit can consider that the amount of greenhouse gas emissions has been reduced by the amount of the credit, enabling offset (offsetting) with its own emissions. Carbon credits are created from various efforts such as forest management such as forest protection and afforestation, agriculture-related, use of renewable energy, and energy conservation. There are credits certified and issued by countries and local governments such as J-credits, and voluntary credits issued by private companies and organizations.

[0003] Regarding carbon credits based on appropriate forest management (hereinafter targeting J-credits unless otherwise specified), the creation of a forest management plan stipulated in the Forest Act is a condition for credit creation. However, only about 30% of the areas subject to creation nationwide have a plan created, and there is a current situation where the creation of carbon credits is not easily expanding. There are various factors why the creation of forest management plans has not progressed, and one of them is that the burden on forestry cooperatives associated with the creation is large.

[0004] Regarding this point, as a prior art for supporting the creation of forest management plans, for example, in Japanese Patent No. 6806397 (Patent Document 1), the profitability of logging in each area on the map at a predetermined timing is calculated and determined based on a learning model from data such as forest conditions, meteorological conditions, topographical conditions, artificial conditions, economic conditions, institutional conditions, and forest space sensing data, taking into account the time axis of the tree growth rate. For areas determined to be profitable, adjacent areas to be logged together are grouped into blocks to form multiple blocks with different logging timings, and a road network plan for determining at which position and timing on the map to open the road network required for logging is determined considering the maintenance cost of the road network. A road network planning system is described.

[0005] Also, in Japanese Patent No. 7270317 (Patent Document 2), a forest database that holds at least tree information, user information for identifying the user associated with the tree information, and access right information that defines the access right to added value information based on the conditions given by the user is described. When an access request is received from a user terminal, a forest management system having an access management unit that collates the user who issued the request with the user information in the forest database and grants the corresponding access right to the user according to the access right information is described.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0006]

Patent Document 1

Patent Document 2

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0007] According to these prior arts, it can be said that it is possible to support the creation of forest management plans to a certain extent by forest associations or the like.

[0008] Here, for example, in the J-credit system, it is required to guarantee the sustainability of the target forest (8 years (or 8 years × 2 = 16 years) during the certification period + at least 18 years for 10 years). If sustainability cannot be ensured, penalties such as the return of the created carbon credits will be imposed. To meet this sustainability guarantee requirement, it is necessary to formulate and update the forest management plan continuously for at least 18 years.

[0009] On the other hand, since the forest management plan stipulated in the Forest Act has a term of 5 years, in order to meet the above-mentioned sustainability guarantee requirement, it is necessary to update the forest management plan every 5 years. And at the time of update, as a requirement of the forest management plan, for example, it is necessary to meet the requirement of the minimum thinning area. However, for example, in the initial plan, if a forest management plan is formulated to meet the requirement of the minimum thinning area by not conducting forest operations on steep forest land and mainly conducting thinning on forest land where operations are easy, then at the time of update, in order to meet the requirement of the minimum thinning area, a plan that requires more forest operations on steep and difficult-to-operate forest land must be made, resulting in a situation where it is difficult to create a practical and effective plan and the update of the forest management plan becomes difficult. Regarding such problems at the time of plan update, there is no suggestion or disclosure in the prior art.

[0010] Therefore, an object of the present invention is to provide a forest management plan creation support system that supports the creation and update of a forest management plan that can meet the system requirements of carbon credits even at the time of future plan update.

[0011] The above and other objects and novel features of the present invention will become apparent from the description of this specification and the accompanying drawings.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0012] Briefly explaining the outline of representative ones among the inventions disclosed in this application, it is as follows.

[0013] The forest management plan creation support system, which is a representative embodiment of the present invention, is a forest management plan creation support system that supports the creation of a forest management plan related to an application for a carbon credit creation project. For the forest management plan input by the applicant, a sustainability guarantee requirement confirmation unit determines whether it is possible to meet the requirements stipulated by the carbon credit system throughout a predetermined target period related to the project; and a forest management plan proposal creation unit that creates a forest management plan proposal that meets the sustainability guarantee requirements when the forest management plan does not meet the sustainability guarantee requirements.

[0014] And the sustainability guarantee requirement confirmation unit accepts the input of the determination result by the applicant regarding whether the forest management plan can meet the requirements even at the time of updating the forest management plan, and the forest management plan proposal creation unit accepts the input from the applicant regarding the forest land with difficult forest operations among the forest land within the planned scope in the forest management plan, and creates the forest management plan proposal excluding the forest land with difficult forest operations from the forest land within the planned scope.

Effects of the Invention

[0015] Among the inventions disclosed in the present application, the effects obtained by representative ones will be briefly described as follows.

[0016] That is, according to a representative embodiment of the present invention, it is possible to support the creation and update of a forest management plan that can meet the system requirements of carbon credits even at the time of future plan updates.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0017]

Figure 1

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Embodiments for Carrying Out the Invention

[0018] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. In all the drawings for explaining the embodiments, the same parts are generally denoted by the same reference numerals, and repeated explanations thereof are omitted. On the other hand, for the parts explained with reference numerals in a certain drawing, they will not be shown again in the explanation of other drawings, but may be referred to with the same reference numerals.

[0019] <Overview> As described above, for example, in the J-Credit system, it is a requirement (permanence guarantee requirement) to formulate and update the forest management plan continuously for at least 18 years. However, for many on-site credit applicants, it is actually difficult to update the plan while meeting the J-Credit requirements when updating the forest management plan every five years with the current concept of formulating the forest management plan. In particular, when the forest management plan actually includes forest land with difficult forest operations, there are many cases where it is difficult to update the plan, which has become an issue faced by many J-Credit applicants.

[0020] In contrast, the forest management plan creation support system according to an embodiment of the present invention implements the following to create a forest management plan that meets the institutional requirements of carbon credits and to perform a profit and loss simulation taking into account the value of carbon credits issued based on the plan, thereby promoting the creation of forest management plans and carbon credits.

[0021] That is, in this embodiment, when an applicant such as a forest owner or a forestry operator applies for carbon credits, it is confirmed that the forest management plan meets the requirements of carbon credits. If the requirements are not met, the difficulty of forestry operations in the target forest land is determined, and the presence or absence of room for adjustment of forestry operations and the planned scope is confirmed. If there is room, a plurality of forestry operation pattern plans that can apply for carbon credits (that is, meet the requirements of carbon credits) are created, and for each forestry operation pattern plan, a profit and loss simulation is performed by taking into account the value of the expected carbon credits in the forestry revenue and costs, thereby assisting the applicant in determining the necessity of the application.

[0022] <System Configuration> FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an overview of a configuration example of a forest management plan creation support system according to an embodiment of the present invention. The forest management plan creation support system 1 is composed of, for example, a server device, a virtual server constructed on a cloud computing service, a PC, etc., and by a CPU (Central Processing Unit) (not shown), an OS (Operating System) and a DBMS (DataBase Management System) deployed on a memory from a recording device such as an HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or an SSD (Solid State Drive), middleware such as a Web server program, and software operating thereon, various functions related to the creation support of a forest management plan that meets the institutional requirements of carbon credits are realized.

[0023] This forest management plan creation support system 1 has components such as a sustainability guarantee requirement confirmation unit 11 implemented as software, a forest management plan draft creation unit 12, a revenue and expenditure simulation unit 13, and an application support unit 14. It also has data stores such as a methodology table 15, a price table 16, and a past performance table 17 implemented using a database, file tables, etc.

[0024] The sustainability guarantee requirement confirmation unit 11 has a function to confirm whether the data of the forest management plan 2 received from the applicant meets the requirements defined by the carbon credit system. For example, in J-Credit, sustainability guarantee requirements are defined. Specifically, during the certification period (8 years or 16 years) of a project related to carbon credits and for 10 years after the end of the certification period, continuously create a forest management plan for the scope registered in the project plan (if the applicant has the intention), and in the case where the certification of the forest management plan is not continued, the project implementer undertakes a predetermined compensatory obligation. The sustainability guarantee requirement confirmation unit 11 confirms such subjective requirements of the applicant.

[0025] Also, in the case of J-Credit, the forest management plan needs to be updated every 5 years. Each time, as a certification requirement, it is necessary to meet requirements such as the minimum thinning area requirement (1 / 3 of the planned thinning target forest can be thinned). The sustainability guarantee requirement confirmation unit 11 determines whether it can be met over the project's certification period based on the data of the forest management plan 2 and other such objective requirements. It may also request confirmation from the applicant as in the case of the above subjective requirements.

[0026] When the forest management plan 2 does not meet the requirements (sustainability guarantee requirements) stipulated by the carbon credit system, the forest management plan proposal creation unit 12 has the function of creating a forest management plan proposal 3 that meets the requirements. Specifically, for the planned area at the time of updating the forest management plan (that is, the area where no forest operations were carried out in the previous forest management plan), the applicant is confirmed about the scope of forest land that is substantially difficult to operate from the perspective of forest improvement on the premise of carbon credit creation. Then, a plan for changing the planned area excluding the above-mentioned difficult-to-operate forest land from the forest management plan scope is created and presented to the applicant. It may be possible to display the forest land scope before and after the change on the same screen to assist the applicant in making a comparison. Furthermore, for the updated forest management plan proposal 3, a felling plan proposal may be created on the premise of carrying out natural forest regeneration operations (thinning felling).

[0027] The income and expenditure simulation unit 13 calculates the economic value (price) of carbon credits to be created in the future from the target project, and based on the calculated credit value and the content of the forest management plan proposal 3 (or the forest management plan 2), it has the function of simulating the income and expenditure throughout the plan. Specifically, for example, regarding the thinning area in the forest management plan proposal 3 (or the forest management plan 2) at the time of update, the cost required for the thinning operation, the income from the sale of the thinned wood and the created carbon credits, etc. are calculated respectively based on the data in the past performance table 17 that holds the past performance information of forest management and the calculated price of carbon credits, etc., and these are output in a comparable form by the application support unit 14 described later. Thereby, it supports the applicant to create a plan proposal with cost-effectiveness.

[0028] The price of carbon credits is calculated, for example, by simulating the future greenhouse gas absorption based on Forest Management Plan 3 (or Forest Management Plan 2), and converting the calculated number of tons of absorption into the price of carbon credits. The simulation of greenhouse gas absorption is carried out, for example, by setting the forest data in Forest Management Plan 3 (or Forest Management Plan 2) as variables in the calculation formulas registered in Methodology Table 15, and calculating the annual greenhouse gas absorption of the target forest over the future. There may be multiple calculation formulas related to different methodologies registered in Methodology Table 15, and the applicant or administrator may be able to specify and set the methodology to be adopted according to the project. Note that a methodology defines the emission reduction calculation method and monitoring method for each technology or method of reducing greenhouse gases. For example, in the case of J-credits, currently, three methodologies for forest management activities, afforestation activities, and reforestation activities regarding forests have been approved.

[0029] Then, the economic value (price) of carbon credits is calculated by multiplying the number of tons of greenhouse gas absorption calculated by simulation by the average amount of money per ton of carbon credit for absorption. Regarding the average price of carbon credits, it can be calculated, for example, from the price data of past carbon credit transaction records for each program and methodology held in Price Table 16. It may also be calculated using a general multivariate analysis (such as a regression model) with the past transaction price as the target variable. Additionally, for example, it may have the function of setting a unique pricing model with parameters such as other environmental values such as biodiversity, social values such as regional contributions, contributions to SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals), compliance with other certification systems, and costs related to registration and certification.

[0030] The application support department 14 has a function to support the applicant in determining whether an application for the target forest management plan 3 (or forest management plan 2) is necessary. For example, it presents to the applicant by outputting on the screen the simulation results related to the project's revenue and expenditure output by the revenue and expenditure simulation department 13. It may receive the input of the applicant's determination result on the necessity of the application, and cooperate with an application system or application function (not shown in the figure) for the data of the forest management plan 3 (or forest management plan 2) to perform an online application.

[0031] Furthermore, as information for the local government or the like of the application destination, the reason for changing the planned area from the forest management plan 2 for the forest management plan 3 may be generated and output. For example, when creating the forest management plan 3 in the forest management plan creation department 12, the existence and reasons of the difficult-to-operate forest land confirmed by the applicant, the existence of cases where the planned area was changed in the past under the same conditions in the past performance table 17, and information such as the future management policy of the target forest in the forest management plan 2 are extracted, and after being confirmed by the applicant, they may be output to the forest management plan 3.

[0032] <Flow of processing> Figure 2 is a flowchart showing an overview of an example of the flow of the forest management plan creation support process in an embodiment of the present invention. First, the forest management plan creation support system 1 receives the input of the data of the forest management plan 2 from the applicant (S01). For example, the applicant accesses the forest management plan creation support system 1 and uploads the data of the forest management plan 2 created by spreadsheet software or the like in a predetermined format and layout.

[0033] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an overview of an example of the data configuration of the forest management plan 2 in one embodiment of the present invention. The data configuration of the forest management plan 2 includes items such as the location, forest owner, forest classification, etc., forest current situation, felling plan, afforestation plan, conservation plan, and protection plan. The item of the location shows information identifying each of one or more forests included in the planned area, and further includes items such as the address indicating the location of the target forest, forest compartment, and operation number. A forest compartment is a forest division defined by the state, and the target range of the forest management plan is usually formulated along the range of the forest compartment. The operation number is an identification number for identifying the operations to be performed on each forest.

[0034] The item of the forest owner shows information on the owner of the target forest, and the item of the forest classification, etc. shows various classifications such as the functional classification and operation method classification of the target forest. The item of the forest current situation shows information on the current situation of the target forest, and further includes items such as the area, the difference between planted forests and natural forests, measurement information such as tree species, tree height, and tree age, standing timber volume, and operation history. The operation history shows the history information on when and how much area of thinning and final felling was carried out.

[0035] The item of the felling plan shows the content of the felling plan related to the target forest, and further includes items such as the time (year), the difference between final felling and thinning, the felling method (single-tree, strip, tree group, etc.), the felling area, and the standing timber volume to be felled. In addition, the item of the afforestation plan shows the content of the afforestation plan related to the target forest, and further includes items such as the time (year), the afforestation method (planting, artificial seeding, sprouting regeneration, natural seeding regeneration, etc.), the tree species, area, and number of trees to be planted. In addition, the item of the conservation plan shows the content of the conservation plan such as undercutting, cleaning, and branch pruning, and the item of the protection plan shows the content of the forest protection plan such as pest control and fire prevention.

[0036] Returning to FIG. 2, the Persistence Guarantee Requirement Confirmation Unit 11 then checks whether the requirements (persistence guarantee requirements) defined by the carbon credit system are met for the received data of the forest management plan 2 (S02). Specifically, as described above, during the certification period (basically eight years) of the project related to carbon credits and for ten years after the end of the certification period, a forest management plan is continuously created for the scope registered in the project plan (the applicant having the intention to do so), and it is confirmed with the applicant that, in the event that the certification of the forest management plan is not continued, the project implementer undertakes a predetermined compensatory obligation.

[0037] Also, in the case of J-credits, the forest management plan needs to be updated every five years, and each time, it is necessary to meet the requirement for the minimum thinning area (one-third of the forest subject to planned thinning being thinnable). As an actual situation in forestry, since thinning plans are often formulated within a range where the cost-effectiveness is reasonable, there are many cases where only forest land that would result in a deficit if thinned remains at the time of subsequent plan updates. In this case, it is determined that the forest management plan cannot (or should not) be updated, and as a result, the situation of not meeting the persistence guarantee requirements occurs. In this embodiment, the applicant is checked as to whether the requirement for the minimum thinning area can be met at the time of plan update. It may be configured such that the Persistence Guarantee Requirement Confirmation Unit 11 automatically makes a primary determination according to a predetermined judgment algorithm and the applicant makes a secondary determination.

[0038] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an overview of an example of the forest management plan scope in an embodiment of the present invention. Here, an example of a forest plan map (working plan map) in the current forest management plan 2 for the initial five years is schematically shown, and the range surrounded by a solid line in the figure indicates the planned scope in the forest management plan 2 (actually shown on a map with contour lines, etc.). And the range surrounded by a dashed line within the planned scope indicates the scope where thinning is carried out in the current forest management plan 2. According to the provisions of the forest management plan, it is required that the area of this thinning implementation scope be equal to or greater than the area defined by the municipal forest improvement plan.

[0039] When the current Forest Management Plan 2 is updated after five years, for the areas where thinning was carried out in the current Forest Management Plan 2 shown in the figure, they will be preserved without final felling or thinning, and the amount of greenhouse gas accumulation will increase. Therefore, in the updated plan, thinning will be carried out on areas other than those where thinning was carried out in the current Forest Management Plan 2. However, in the example of Figure 3, the areas other than the thinning implementation areas in the current Forest Management Plan 2 are steep forest lands. In the updated plan, even in such steep forest lands, it is necessary to meet the requirement of the minimum thinning area (equal to or more than the area defined in the municipal forest improvement plan). However, in steep forest lands, the cost required for thinning operations is high, and even if thinning is carried out, the cost-effectiveness is not achieved and it will result in a deficit. Therefore, in reality, it is difficult to carry out thinning. For this reason, the actual situation is that it is difficult to update the plan so as to meet the sustainability guarantee requirements within the planned scope of the current Forest Management Plan 2.

[0040] Returning to Figure 2, in the sustainability guarantee requirement confirmation unit 11, it is determined whether the Forest Management Plan 2 received from the applicant meets the sustainability guarantee requirements (S03). If it is met, the process proceeds to the process of step S07 described later. On the other hand, if it is not met, first, the forest management plan creation unit 12 performs a process of confirming the scope of forest lands that are substantially difficult to operate from the perspective of forest improvement on the premise of carbon credit creation for the planned scope at the time of updating the Forest Management Plan 2 (that is, the scope where no forest operations were carried out in the forest management plan before the update) (S04). Here, forest lands that are difficult to operate refer to forest lands where, for example, they are steep, no forest roads are laid, there are swamps and it is difficult to enter the back mountains, and there has been no forest operation in the past, and there is no plan to carry out forest operations in the subsequent forest management plans.

[0041] FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing an outline of an example of the process of confirming difficult-to-operate forest land (step S04 in FIG. 3) in one embodiment of the present invention. First, for the current forest management plan 2, it is determined whether the content is set in any of the items of the operation history, felling plan, afforestation plan, and conservation plan in the data configuration of FIG. 3 (that is, whether there is a plan for operations such as thinning) (S41). If the content is not set, the applicant is requested to specify the locations in the data of the forest management plan 2 where the content of these items is set.

[0042] Then, for the current forest management plan 2 in which the content of the above items is set, a planned plan until 18 years later is created (S42). Specifically, for example, for the data of the forest management plan 2 created with a period of 5 years as one term, it is replicated until it becomes a plan including the year 18 years after the start. At that time, the planned period and forest age of each plan are increased by 5 years. And for each plan of the replicated planned plan until 18 years later, for example, (1) when the forest age is 6th class (26 - 30 years old) or more and less than the standard felling age (the standard felling age determined by the local government for the target tree species. For example, 50 years old), and there is no thinning within a certain period (the thinning implementation interval set for each forest age. For example, 5 years), or (2) when the tree age is the standard felling age or more and less than the 16th class (76 - 80 years old), and there is no thinning within a certain period (for example, 10 years), if it meets either case, the plan is modified to carry out thinning.

[0043] After that, it is determined whether the operation is feasible for the planned plan until 18 years later created in step S42 (S43), and the process ends. Specifically, the planned plan until 18 years later and the plan drawing (operation drawing) of the forest management plan 2 are presented to the applicant, and the applicant determines whether the operation is feasible while referring to the content of the planned plan and the planned scope shown in the plan drawing with contour lines, etc., and inputs the determination result. The range of the forest land determined by the applicant as not feasible for operation becomes the difficult-to-operate forest land.

[0044] Returning to FIG. 2, after confirming the difficult-to-operate forest land in step S04, the forest management plan drafting section 12 creates a forest management plan draft 3 that excludes the difficult-to-operate forest land from the planned area of the forest management plan 2 (S05). Here, in accordance with the requirements stipulated for the forest management plan, the planned area is changed so as to include an area of at least half of the area of the forest compartments included in the original planned area. A forest plan diagram showing the planned area before and after the change may be displayed on the same screen to facilitate comparison and consideration by the applicant.

[0045] FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the planned areas of the forest management plan before and after the change in one embodiment of the present invention. The upper diagram schematically shows a forest plan diagram showing the planned area before the change. According to this plan, even for steep forest lands where operations are difficult, thinning operations will be carried out by utilizing subsidies and carbon credit revenues. However, in such a plan, it is difficult to continuously manage in reality, so a revised plan is created that excludes steep forest lands where operations are difficult from the scope of the forest management plan, as shown in the lower diagram. In the example of the figure, the steep forest land on the east side (the right side of the figure) of the planned area is excluded from the planned area. The forest management plan drafting section 12, for example, displays the upper and lower diagrams of FIG. 6 (forest plan diagrams before and after the change) on the same screen and presents them to the applicant.

[0046] Returning to FIG. 2, after creating a revised plan for the planned area in step S05, the forest management plan drafting section 12 creates a construction pattern plan for the revised plan (S06). Specifically, the area of the forest land determined to be difficult to operate in step S04 is excluded from the data of the forest management plan. That is, from the data of the forest management plan, among the records (forest lands) in the felling plan column in the data structure shown in FIG. 3 that are blank (i.e., there is no planned felling operation), the records of the forest lands determined to be difficult to operate in reality in the future in step S04 are deleted.

[0047] Furthermore, accept from the applicant information on the update timing of the forest management plan, i.e., when the period of the current forest management plan before the update ends, and make a plan for forest operations after the plan update for the planned scope of the modification plan created in step S05. That is, among the data obtained by removing the forest areas with difficult forest operations from the forest management plan 2, for the records with blank cutting plans in the data structure shown in Figure 3, add the operation plan as the cutting plan. The created modification plan is output as the forest management plan 3.

[0048] After that, for the modified forest management plan 3 (or forest management plan 2), the revenue and expenditure simulation unit 13 performs a simulation of the revenue and expenditure throughout the entire plan (S07).

[0049] Figure 7 is a flowchart showing an overview of an example of the flow of the revenue and expenditure simulation process (step S07 in Figure 3) in an embodiment of the present invention. First, estimate the revenue as forestry throughout the entire plan (S71).

[0050] Specifically, for example, first extract information such as past subsidies and forest cooperative operation costs held in the past performance table 17, etc., and present it to the applicant as reference information, and accept from the applicant the input of the revenue at the time of final felling and thinning per unit area for the target forest. Then, extract the areas of final felling and thinning to be carried out by 8 years later in the planned plan from this year in the current forest management plan to 18 years later created in step S42 of Figure 5, multiply each by the revenue at the time of final felling and thinning per unit area input by the applicant, calculate the revenue from final felling and thinning, and sum them up to estimate the revenue as forestry.

[0051] Next, calculate the economic value of carbon credits created throughout the entire plan, i.e., the revenue from sales (S72). Specifically, for example, by setting the data in the current forest management plan into a predetermined calculation formula determined by the state or the like, calculate the amount of greenhouse gas absorption, i.e., the expected amount of carbon credits to be created (tons). Then, multiply this expected creation amount by the value of the average purchase and sale amount (yen / ton) per unit amount of carbon credits traded in the market, which has been obtained or set in advance, to estimate the value of carbon credits. It may be possible to subtract a certain percentage in consideration of fees required for carbon credit transactions, creation costs, and the like.

[0052] Then, based on the estimated result of forestry revenue obtained in step S71 and the estimated result of the value of carbon credits obtained in step S72, create a profit and loss simulation (S73). That is, by adding these together, obtain the profit and loss simulation result for 18 years.

[0053] FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an overview of an example of a profit and loss simulation result in an embodiment of the present invention. Here, for example, as the profit and loss for 18 years, for expenses (expenses required for thinning operations, construction of working roads, etc.) and revenues (sales of timber, subsidies, income from carbon credits for 18 years, etc.), they are calculated by classifying them into patterns depending on whether to carry out extraction thinning or clear - cutting thinning for steep forest land, and the expected amount that can be returned to the forest owner is calculated by subtracting the expenses from the revenues. By presenting this simulation result to the applicant, the applicant can easily confirm whether the plan is one that can obtain a cost - effectiveness.

[0054] Return to FIG. 2, and then, the Application Support Department 14 presents to the applicant the modified forest management plan 3 created in steps S05 and S06 and the content of the income and expenditure simulation created in step S07 by means of screen display or the like, and the applicant determines whether or not to apply for the project (S08). The applicant selects an appropriate one from among a plurality of forest management patterns, and the Application Support Department 14 outputs a forest management plan 3 corresponding thereto. It is also possible to receive the input of the result of the applicant's determination of necessity, and link the data of the forest management plan 3 (or the forest management plan 2) to an external application system, an application function, etc., and perform an online application.

[0055] Furthermore, as information for the local government or the like of the application destination, the Application Support Department 14 generates and outputs together the reason for changing the planned scope of the forest management plan (S09). As described above, for example, the existence and reasons of the forest areas with difficult forest operations confirmed by the applicant in step S04, the existence of cases where the planned scope was changed in the past under the same conditions in the past performance table 17, etc., information such as the management policy of the target forest in the future in the forest management plan are extracted and presented to the applicant, and after confirmation by the applicant, it is output to the forest management plan 3.

[0056] As described above, according to the forest management plan creation support system 1 which is an embodiment of the present invention, when the applicant applies for carbon credits, it is confirmed that the forest management plan meets the institutional requirements (permanence guarantee requirements) of carbon credits. If the requirements are not met, the difficulty of forest operations in the target forest area is determined, and the presence or absence of room for adjustment of forest operations and the planned scope is confirmed. If there is room, a plurality of forest management pattern plans that meet the institutional requirements of carbon credits are created, and for each forest management pattern plan, a simulation of income and expenditure is performed by adding the value of the expected carbon credits to the forest operation income and costs, thereby assisting the applicant in determining whether or not to apply, and promoting the creation of forest management plans and carbon credits.

[0057] As described above, the invention made by the present inventor has been specifically described based on the embodiments. However, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and it goes without saying that various modifications can be made without departing from the gist thereof. Further, the above embodiments have been described in detail for the purpose of explaining the present invention clearly, and are not necessarily limited to those having all the configurations described. Also, it is possible to add, delete, or replace a part of the configuration of the above embodiments with other configurations.

[0058] In addition, each of the above configurations, functions, processing units, processing means, etc. may be realized in hardware by designing a part or all of them, for example, by using an integrated circuit. Also, each of the above configurations, functions, etc. may be realized in software by a processor interpreting and executing a program that realizes each function. Information such as programs, tables, and files that realize each function can be stored in a recording device such as a memory, a hard disk, an SSD, or a recording medium such as an IC card, an SD card, or a DVD.

[0059] Also, in each of the above figures, control lines and information lines show those considered necessary for explanation, and do not necessarily show all the control lines and information lines in actual implementation. In practice, it may be considered that almost all configurations are interconnected.

Industrial Applicability

[0060] The present invention can be used in a forest management plan creation support system that supports the creation of a forest management plan that meets the institutional requirements of carbon credits.

Explanation of Signs

[0061] 1... Forest management plan creation support system, 2... Forest management plan, 3... Forest management plan draft 11... Sustainability guarantee requirement confirmation unit, 12... Forest management plan draft creation unit, 13... Revenue and expenditure simulation unit, 14... Application support unit, 15... Methodology table, 16... Price table, 17... Past performance table

Claims

1. A forest management plan creation support system for supporting the creation of a forest management plan related to an application for a carbon credit creation project, For the forest management plan input by the applicant, a sustainability guarantee requirement confirmation unit that determines whether it is possible to meet the requirements stipulated by the carbon credit system throughout a predetermined target period related to the project; When the forest management plan does not meet the sustainability guarantee requirements, a forest management plan proposal creation unit that creates a forest management plan proposal that meets the sustainability guarantee requirements, and has, The sustainability guarantee requirement confirmation unit accepts the input of the applicant's determination result regarding whether the forest management plan can meet the requirements even when the forest management plan is updated, The forest management plan proposal creation unit accepts the input from the applicant regarding the forest land with difficult forest operations among the forest land within the planned scope in the forest management plan, and creates the forest management plan proposal excluding the forest land with difficult forest operations from the forest land within the planned scope. Forest management plan creation support system.

2. In the forest management plan creation support system according to claim 1, Further, it has a revenue and expenditure simulation unit that simulates the revenue and expenditure related to the project throughout the target period, The revenue and expenditure simulation unit estimates the revenue from forestry in the project and the value of carbon credits to be created in the future from the project, and estimates the amount to be returned to the forest owner based on these. Forest management plan creation support system.

3. In the forest management plan creation support system according to claim 1, The forest management plan proposal creation unit adds a plan for clear - cutting for natural forest regeneration after updating to the forest land in the forest management plan that has no felling plan, and creates the forest management plan proposal. Forest management plan creation support system.

4. In the forest management plan creation support system according to claim 1, Further, it has an application support unit that presents the forest management plan prepared by the forest management plan preparation unit to the applicant and accepts the input of the applicant's judgment result on whether an application is necessary. The application support unit is a forest management plan creation support system that generates and outputs the reasons related to the change from the forest management plan to the forest management plan.

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