Computing apparatus, and computing method

Abstract

To allow improvement in estimation accuracy of a future power generation amount of a wind force power generator.SOLUTION: A computing apparatus 100 according to the present invention, based on environmental data, estimates a first total power generation amount during a target period of a wind force power generator apparatus 20. The computing apparatus 100, based on restriction information, estimates a restriction period to estimate a second total power generation amount which was not generated due to restriction of an operation of a power generator apparatus during the restriction period. Then, the computing apparatus 100 calculates a total power generation amount by subtracting the second total power generation amount from the first total power generation amount.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a calculation device and a calculation method. [Background technology]

[0002] Conventionally, techniques for estimating the amount of power generated by a wind power generator have been proposed. For example, an estimation device disclosed in Japanese Patent Laid-Open Publication No. 2019-203727 (Patent Document 1) estimates the annual amount of power generated by using the results of wind condition analysis based on a weather forecast model. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2019-203727 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] However, the above-mentioned estimation device is based on the assumption that the wind turbine generator is always operating normally, and therefore does not take into account the fact that the operation of the wind turbine generator is restricted, which can result in a problem of low accuracy in estimating the amount of power generated.

[0005] The present disclosure has been made to solve the above-mentioned problems, and its purpose is to improve the accuracy of estimating the future power generation amount of a wind turbine generator. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] The calculation device of the present disclosure includes a calculation device and an interface. The calculation device estimates the total amount of power generated by the power generation device for a future target period. The interface acquires environmental data for the target period of the installation location of the power generation device and restriction information for the calculation device to estimate a restriction period during which operation of the power generation device will be restricted in the future. The calculation device estimates a first total amount of power generated by the power generation device for the target period based on the environmental data. The calculation device also estimates the restriction period based on the restriction information and estimates a second total amount of power generation that could not be generated due to restrictions on operation of the power generation device during the restriction period. The calculation device then calculates the total amount of power generation by subtracting the second total amount of power generation from the first total amount of power generation.

[0007] The calculation method of the present disclosure includes estimating a total amount of power generated by a power generation device during a future target period, acquiring environmental data for the target period of the installation location of the power generation device, and restriction information for a calculation device to estimate a future restriction period during which operation of the power generation device will be restricted. Estimating the total amount of power generated includes estimating a first total amount of power generated by the power generation device during the target period based on the environmental data, estimating the restriction period based on the restriction information, estimating a second total amount of power generation that could not be generated due to the restriction on operation of the power generation device during the restriction period, and calculating the total amount of power generated by subtracting the second total amount of power generation from the first total amount of power generation. [Effects of the Invention]

[0008] According to the present disclosure, it is possible to improve the accuracy of estimating the future power generation amount of a wind turbine generator. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0009] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of a management system according to the present disclosure. [Figure 2] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of an input screen. [Figure 3] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a result screen. [Figure 4] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a CMSDB (Data Base). [Figure 5] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of a first DB. [Figure 6] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of a second DB. [Figure 7] FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram of a calculation device. [Figure 8] 10 is a flowchart showing main processing of the calculation device. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0010] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In the following drawings, the same or corresponding parts are designated by the same reference numerals, and description thereof will not be repeated.

[0011] [Management system configuration example] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of a management system 10 according to the present embodiment. The management system 10 according to the present disclosure is a system to which a condition monitoring system (CMS) is applied. The management system 10 includes M (M is an integer equal to or greater than 1) wind power generation units 45, a calculation device 100, a user terminal 50, a CMS server 60, a weather server 70, and a network NW. The collection device 30, which will be described later, the calculation device 100, the user terminal 50, the CMS server 60, and the weather server 70 can communicate with each other via the network NW.

[0012] In the example of FIG. 1, the M wind power generation units 45 include wind power generation unit 45 and wind power generation unit 45A.

[0013] The wind power generation unit 45 includes a wind power generation device 20, a gearbox 21, a collection device 30, and N sensors Sn (n=1,...,N, N is an integer equal to or greater than 1). The sensors Sn correspond to the "first sensor" of the present disclosure. The N sensors Sn include, for example, a vibration sensor.

[0014] Identification information (ID) and attribute information are assigned to each of the M wind turbine generators 20. The identification information is information for identifying the wind turbine generator 20. The attribute information is, for example, information indicating the attributes of the wind turbine generator 20, and in this embodiment includes model information indicating the model of the wind turbine generator 20 and location information (coordinate information) indicating the location where the wind turbine generator 20 is set up. Note that the attribute information may also include other information (for example, the manufacturing date).

[0015] The wind turbine generator 20 is a device that receives wind power and generates electricity. The gearbox 21 is an example of an accessory device attached to the wind turbine generator 20. The gearbox is assigned an ID (gearbox ID). Each of the sensors Sn (vibration sensors) detects vibration values ​​of parts to be diagnosed of the wind turbine generator 20 (for example, the main bearing, the gearbox, and the generator). The vibration values ​​correspond to the "first physical quantity" of the present disclosure.

[0016] The vibration value is expressed, for example, by any one of the displacement, velocity, and acceleration of the predetermined location. The vibration value detected by the sensor Sn is associated with the sensor ID of the sensor and output as time-series data to the collection device 30. The time-series data is a physical quantity shown in a time series.

[0017] The time series data collected by the collecting device 30 is output to the CMS server 60 with the wind power generation device ID of the wind power generation device 20 corresponding to the collecting device 30 associated with the time series data. The CMS server 60 stores the wind power generation device ID and the time series data in association with each other. In this way, the CMS server 60 collectively stores the time series data of M wind power generation devices 20. Note that in the example of FIG. 1, the calculating device 100 and the CMS server 60 are configured separately, but the calculating device 100 may also include the CMS server 60.

[0018] The calculation device 100 described below functions as a monitoring device that monitors the presence or absence of abnormalities in the N wind turbine generators 20. Specifically, the calculation device 100 diagnoses the wind turbine generators 20 using time-series data. The diagnosis of the wind turbine generators 20 includes a process of determining the presence or absence of a fault in the wind turbine generators 20, and, when a fault in the wind turbine generators 20 is detected, a process of identifying the location of the fault.

[0019] If the calculation device 100 detects an abnormality in the wind turbine generator 20 as a result of the diagnostic processing by the calculation device 100 , an operator (not shown) performs maintenance on the wind turbine generator 20 .

[0020] The user terminal 50 is a terminal device owned by a user A. "User A" is typically a person who owns a wind power generation device 20, such as a power generation company. The user terminal 50 is typically a mobile terminal that can be carried by the user A. The user terminal 50 may also be a dedicated computer terminal.

[0021] The user terminal 50 displays an input screen (see FIG. 2, which will be described later) and a result screen (see FIG. 3, which will be described later) for the input screen.

[0022] The weather server 70 transmits environmental data to the calculation device 100 in response to a request signal from the calculation device 100. The environmental data is, for example, data indicating the future environment of the installation location of the wind power generation device 20. The data indicating the environment is, for example, wind condition data. The wind condition data is data indicating the wind direction, wind speed, etc.

[0023] As will be described later, the calculation device 100 calculates (estimates) the future total power generation amount and future total differential price of the wind power generation device 20 specified by the user. Then, the calculation device 100 displays the calculated total power generation amount and total differential price on the user terminal 50 of the user (see FIG. 3).

[0024] The computing device 100 includes an arithmetic unit 102, a memory 104, and an interface 106. The arithmetic unit 102 executes various processes and calculations. The components are interconnected by a data bus. The memory 104 includes a read-only memory (ROM) and a random-access memory (RAM).

[0025] The arithmetic device 102 is configured with a central processing unit (CPU), a field-programmable gate array (FPGA), a graphics processing unit (GPU), etc. The arithmetic device 102 may be configured with at least one of a CPU, an FPGA, and a GPU. The arithmetic device 102 may also be configured with processing circuitry. The arithmetic device 102 is also referred to as "at least one processor" or "arithmetic circuitry."

[0026] The memory 104 includes a volatile storage area (e.g., a working area) that temporarily stores program code, work memory, etc. when the arithmetic device 102 executes any program. For example, the memory 104 includes a RAM (Random Access Memory) and a ROM (Read Only Memory).

[0027] The ROM stores programs executed by the arithmetic unit 102. The RAM temporarily stores data generated by the execution of programs in the arithmetic unit 102. The RAM can function as a temporary data memory used as a working area.

[0028] The interface 106 is configured to communicate with devices external to the computing device 100 (such as the collection device 30, the user terminal 50, and the weather server 70).

[0029] The user terminal 50 displays the total amount of power generation and the total price difference from the calculation device 100 on the display unit, thereby allowing the user A to recognize the total amount of power generation and the total price difference.

[0030] [Input screen] Fig. 2 is an example of an input screen 300 displayed by the user terminal 50. When the user performs a predetermined display operation on the user terminal 50, the user terminal 50 displays the input screen 300 of Fig. 2. Hereinafter, the target wind power generation device for which the process of estimating the total power generation amount and total differential price is executed will also be referred to as the "target wind power generation device".

[0031] As shown in the first DB described below, the wind turbine generator ID and the user terminal ID are associated with each other. Therefore, the wind turbine generator indicated by the wind turbine generator ID corresponding to the user terminal ID of the user terminal 50 that displayed the input screen 300 is the "target wind turbine generator."

[0032] Here, the "total power generation amount" is the amount of power generation calculated by subtracting the second total power generation amount from the first total power generation amount. The first total power generation amount is the sum of the estimated power generation amounts of the target wind power generation devices for the entire target period described below. The second total power generation amount is the total power generation amount that could not be generated due to restrictions on the operation of the target wind power generation device during a future restriction period of the target wind power generation device. The restriction period is a period within the target period during which it is estimated that the operation of the target wind power generation device will be restricted in the future. Restrictions on the operation of the wind power generation device include not only restrictions on the operation of the wind power generation device, but also complete suspension of operation of the wind power generation device. In other words, the restriction period includes a suspension period during which the operation of the wind power generation device is completely suspended. The restriction period may also be a suspension period. An example of a method for estimating (calculating) the second total power generation amount will be described later.

[0033] Furthermore, the "total differential price" is a value calculated by subtracting the total maintenance cost from the total price. Here, the total price is the income that the user can obtain from the first total power generation amount. Furthermore, the total differential price is the income that the user can actually obtain from the target wind power generation device. The total maintenance cost is the total cost of maintenance estimated to be performed during the above-mentioned target period. The total maintenance cost is the cost paid to the maintenance company (maintainer) that performs maintenance on the target wind power generation device. Therefore, the total maintenance cost is a negative cost for the user of the target wind power generation device.

[0034] The input screen 300 includes a character image 301 , a wind power generation device input image 302 , a gearbox input image 303 , an installation location input image 304 , a target number of years input image 305 , a stop condition input image 306 , and an electricity selling price input image 307 .

[0035] The text image 301 is a text image that reads, "Calculate the estimated power generation amount and estimated income of your wind power generation device." The wind power generation device input image 302 includes a text image that prompts the user to input the model of the target wind power generation device, and an input area for this model.

[0036] The gearbox input image 303 includes a text image that prompts the user to input the model of the gearbox 21 of the target wind turbine generator, and an input area for this model. The model of the wind turbine generator and the model of the gearbox input by the user correspond to the "attribute information" of the present disclosure.

[0037] The installation location input image 304 includes a text image that prompts the user to input the installation location of the target wind power generation device, and an input area for the installation location. The target year input image 305 includes a text image that prompts the user to input the target period, and an input area for the target period. The user inputs, for example, the number of years that the wind power generation device 20 is planned to operate in the future as the target period. The planned number of years of operation is, for example, the number of years obtained by subtracting the number of years of operation in the past from the recommended number of years of operation of the wind power generation device 20 (for example, 20 years). The target period may also be, for example, a period desired by the user (for example, 5 years).

[0038] The stop condition input image 306 includes a text image that prompts the user to input the stop condition, and an input area for the stop condition. The stop condition is a condition under which operation of the target wind turbine power generation apparatus is stopped. For example, the stop condition is a condition such that "if the wind speed is Am / s or higher, operation of the target wind turbine power generation apparatus is stopped." In this way, the user can specify the stop condition to operate the target wind turbine power generation apparatus safely.

[0039] The electricity selling price input image 307 includes a text image that prompts the user to input the electricity selling price, and an input area for the electricity selling price. The electricity selling price is the price at which electricity generated by the target wind power generation device is sold to an electric power company.

[0040] 2, when the user performs a predetermined transmission operation, the input information is transmitted to the calculation device 100. The transmission operation is, for example, a user operation on a transmission button (not shown) displayed on the user terminal 50.

[0041] The calculation device 100 executes the calculation process described below using the input information transmitted from the user terminal 50. Then, the calculation device 100 transmits result screen data showing the calculation results to the user terminal 50. The user terminal 50 displays a result screen based on the result screen data.

[0042] [Result screen] 3 is an example of a result screen 400. The result screen 400 includes a total power generation amount image 401, a total price difference image 402, a maintenance cost image 403, and a graph image 404.

[0043] The total power generation amount image 401 is an image showing the total power generation amount described above. In the example of FIG. 3, it is a text image saying "The estimated power generation amount for AA years is BB (kWh)." Here, "AA years" in this text image corresponds to the target number of years input to the target number of years input image 305 in FIG. 2. Also, "BB (kWh)" in this text image is the total power generation amount calculated by the calculation device 100.

[0044] The total price difference image 402 is an image showing the total price difference described above. In the example of Fig. 3, it is a text image saying "Your estimated income for AA years is CC yen." Here, "CC yen" in this text image is the total price difference (income earned by the user) calculated by the calculation device 100.

[0045] The maintenance cost image 403 is an image showing the total maintenance cost. In the example of FIG. 3, it is a text image saying "The total maintenance cost for AA years is DD yen." Here, "DD yen" in this text image is the total maintenance cost calculated by the calculation device 100.

[0046] The graph image 404 includes a first graph image 411 indicated by a solid line and a second graph image 412 indicated by a dashed line. In the first graph image 411, the horizontal axis indicates time, and the vertical axis indicates the amount of power generated by the target wind power generation device. In other words, the first graph image 411 is an image that shows changes in the amount of power generated over time. In the second graph image 412, the horizontal axis indicates time, and the vertical axis indicates income (price difference). In other words, the first graph image 411 is an image that shows changes in income over time. Furthermore, the period on the horizontal axis of the graph image 404 indicates the target period input by the user.

[0047] The example in Fig. 3 shows timings t0 to t7. In the example in Fig. 3, when the target wind power generation equipment is generating power (normal amount, period of power generation), the income based on the power generation increases. However, when the amount of power generated by the target wind power generation equipment is less than the normal amount due to restrictions on the operation of the target wind power generation equipment, the income based on the power generation decreases.

[0048] Between times t1 and t2, the amount of power generated is zero because it is estimated that operation of the wind power generation equipment will be restricted due to maintenance. Furthermore, between times t1 and t2, the maintenance costs required for the maintenance are deducted from the income. These maintenance costs are calculated (estimated) from the cost of regular maintenance and the maintenance costs explained in FIG. 6, which will be described later. The period between t1 and t2 corresponds to the maintenance period, which will be described later.

[0049] Furthermore, it is estimated that the operation of the wind power generation equipment will be stopped due to wind conditions (for example, high wind speed) between times t3 and t4, which corresponds to the operation stop period described below.

[0050] Furthermore, from timing t5 to t6, it is estimated that a future abnormality (for example, a bearing abnormality) of the target wind turbine generator will occur, and therefore it is estimated that operation of the target wind turbine generator will be restricted. t5 to t6 corresponds to the abnormality period described below. And, at timing t6, it is estimated that maintenance will be carried out to replace the bearings of the target wind turbine generator. t6 to t7 corresponds to the maintenance period described below.

[0051] [CMSDB] 4 is a diagram showing an example of a CMS database (CMSDB (Data Base)) held by the CMS server 60 (see FIG. 1). The CMSDB is a database showing the results of past diagnoses made by diagnostic devices.

[0052] In the example of FIG. 4, the wind turbine generator model, the speed-up gear model, the abnormality ID, and the feature amount are associated with each other.

[0053] As described above, the wind turbine generator model and the gearbox model are the model of the wind turbine generator and the model of the gearbox, respectively. The abnormality ID is information for identifying an abnormality in the wind turbine generator 20. The abnormality ID identifies the location and type of abnormality in the wind turbine generator 20. The feature amount is a value based on a physical quantity detected by a sensor corresponding to the abnormality indicated by the abnormality ID. This value based on a physical quantity includes the physical quantity itself and an amount obtained by performing a predetermined operation on the physical quantity. The predetermined operation is, for example, a fast Fourier transform (FFT).

[0054] In the following, IDs or model numbers may be used as reference symbols. For example, a wind turbine generator with wind turbine generator model number A1 is also referred to as "wind turbine generator A1." In the example of FIG. 4, an abnormality C1 and a feature value D1, and an abnormality C2 and a feature value D2, etc. are associated with the wind turbine generator A1 and the gearbox B1. This example shows that abnormalities C1, C2, etc. occurred in the past in the wind turbine generator A1 that has the gearbox B1. The feature values ​​corresponding to the abnormalities C1 and C2 are D1 and D2, respectively. The abnormality C1 is, for example, an abnormality in the bearings of the wind turbine generator.

[0055] Hereinafter, at least some of the data stored in the CMSDB will also be referred to as CMS data.

[0056] [Database provided by the calculation device] Next, the first DB and second DB that are DBs included in the calculation device 100 will be described. Fig. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the first DB. In the first DB, wind turbine generator IDs are associated with user terminal IDs. For example, wind turbine generator ID: W1 is associated with user terminal ID: U1. Note that wind turbine generator IDs and user terminal IDs do not necessarily have to be associated one-to-one; for example, a representative user terminal ID may be associated with multiple wind turbine generator IDs.

[0057] 6 is a diagram showing an example of the second DB. In the second DB, a maintenance ID, a maintenance cost, and a maintenance period are defined in association with each abnormality ID.

[0058] For example, an example is shown in which maintenance M1, maintenance cost: N1 (yen), and maintenance period T1 are associated with abnormality C1. This example shows that for abnormality C1, it is preferable to perform maintenance M1 on the wind power generation device 20, the cost required for this maintenance M1 is N1 yen, and the period required for this maintenance M1 is T1.

[0059] [Functional block diagram of the calculation device 100] 7 is a functional block diagram of the computing device 100. The computing device 100 has a receiving unit 112, a processing unit 114, a transmitting unit 116, and a storage unit 118. The receiving unit 112 and the transmitting unit 116 correspond to the interface 106 in FIG. 1. The processing unit 114 corresponds to the arithmetic device 102 in FIG. 1. The storage unit 118 corresponds to the memory 104 in FIG. 1, and at least a portion of the storage area of ​​the memory 104 is applied to the storage unit 118.

[0060] The storage unit 118 stores the first DB 141 shown in FIG. 5, the second DB 142 shown in FIG. 6, and the like.

[0061] The receiving unit 112 acquires the above-mentioned time-series data from each collecting device 30 of each wind power generation unit 45. The receiving unit 112 also acquires input information entered on the input screen 300 (see FIG. 2 ) from the user terminal 50. The receiving unit 112 also acquires CMS data from the CMS server 60. The receiving unit 112 also acquires weather data from the weather server 70.

[0062] When the calculation device 100 acquires input information from the user terminal 50, it acquires the wind turbine generator model (information entered into the wind turbine generator input image 302) and the gearbox model (information entered into the gearbox input image 303) included in the input information. Then, the calculation device 100 requests CMS data (anomaly ID and feature values) of the wind turbine generator corresponding to the wind turbine generator model and the gearbox model from the CMS server 60. The CMS server 60 transmits the CMS data. Then, the calculation device 100 acquires the CMS data. The "wind turbine generator corresponding to the wind turbine generator model and the gearbox model" corresponds to the "other wind turbine generator" in the present disclosure. Furthermore, if the other wind turbine generator is, for example, wind turbine generator A1 having a gearbox B1, then, for example, anomalies C1 and C2 correspond to the "past anomalies" in the present disclosure. The feature amounts D1 and D2 corresponding to the abnormalities C1 and C2 are values ​​based on the "second physical amount detected by the sensor (second sensor) included in the other wind turbine generator" of the present disclosure.

[0063] The calculation device 100 also requests wind condition data for the installation location of the wind power generation device included in the input information (information input to the installation location input image 304) from the weather server 70. The weather server 70 transmits the wind condition data. The calculation device 100 then acquires the wind condition data.

[0064] In this embodiment, the time-series data from the collection device 30 and the CMS data from the CMS server 60 correspond to the "restriction information" of the present disclosure. The "restriction information" is information that the calculation device 100 uses to estimate a restriction period during which operation of the target wind power generation device will be restricted in the future. The restriction period in this embodiment includes an abnormality period and a maintenance period. The abnormality period is a period during which operation of the target wind power generation device is restricted due to a future abnormality (estimated abnormality) of the target wind power generation device. The maintenance period is a period (maintenance period) during which future maintenance (estimated maintenance) will be performed on the target wind power generation device.

[0065] The processing unit 114 excludes the wind condition data for the period in which the stop condition is met from the wind condition data for the entire target period acquired from the weather server 70 (see step S6 in FIG. 8 described later). The wind condition data after the exclusion is also referred to as "used wind condition data." The period in which the stop condition is met is also referred to as the "operation suspension period."

[0066] For example, if the stop condition is to stop operation of the target wind power generation device when the wind speed is P (m / s) or higher, the wind condition data for the period when the wind speed is P (m / s) or higher is excluded from the wind condition data for the entire target period.

[0067] Then, the processing unit 114 estimates the amount of power generated by the target wind turbine generator for each unit time during the target period based on the wind condition data. The unit time is, for example, one hour. The estimation of the amount of power generated is performed using, for example, a predetermined estimation algorithm. The predetermined estimation algorithm may be any algorithm, and may be an algorithm that uses a predetermined function or an algorithm that uses AI (artificial intelligence). The amount of power generated per unit time corresponds to the first graph image 411 in FIG. 3. The processing unit 114 then calculates a first total amount of power generated by adding up the amounts of power generated per unit time.

[0068] Furthermore, the processing unit 114 identifies an abnormality (abnormality ID) estimated in the target wind power generation device and the time of occurrence of the abnormality, based on the time-series data from the collection device 30 and the CMS data from the CMS server 60. In this embodiment, at least one of the following two methods is used to identify the abnormality (abnormality ID):

[0069] The first method uses time-series data from the collection device 30. In this method, the processing unit 114 generates a frequency spectrum by, for example, performing an FFT on the vibration values, which are time-series data. The processing unit 114 then compares the frequency spectrum with a predetermined fault frequency to estimate an abnormality in the target wind turbine power generation device.

[0070] In the second method, the processing unit 114 uses not only the time-series data but also the CMS data. For example, the processing unit 114 calculates a feature amount (first feature amount) using the time-series data. Then, if the calculated feature amount (first feature amount) is identical or substantially identical to the feature amount (second feature amount) of the CMS data, and an abnormality (past abnormality) with an abnormality ID corresponding to the second feature amount has not occurred in the target wind turbine power generation device, the processing unit 114 estimates that the past abnormality will occur in the future. Note that other methods may be used to estimate an abnormality in the target wind turbine power generation device.

[0071] After estimating the abnormality ID and the time when the abnormality occurred, the processing unit 114 estimates the abnormality period. Furthermore, after estimating the abnormality ID and the time when the abnormality occurred, the processing unit 114 refers to the second DB in Fig. 6 to identify the maintenance ID, maintenance cost, and maintenance period corresponding to the abnormality ID. As a result, the computing device 100 estimates the restricted period (the abnormality period and the maintenance period).

[0072] Furthermore, the processing unit 114 identifies the maintenance cost for each of the estimated at least one abnormality. Then, the processing unit 114 calculates the total maintenance cost by adding up the maintenance costs for each of the estimated at least one abnormality. The processing unit 114 also calculates the differential price per unit of time by subtracting the maintenance cost for the maintenance that starts in that unit of time from the amount of power generation per unit of time. The differential price per unit of time corresponds to the second graph image 412 in FIG. 3.

[0073] Furthermore, the processing unit 114 estimates the total amount of power generation that could not be generated due to restrictions on the operation of the target wind power generation device during the estimated restricted period (second total amount of power generation). In estimating the second total amount of power generation, the calculation device 100 acquires wind condition data (previous wind condition data) for the same period as the restricted period from the weather server 70, for example, during a period (e.g., last year) prior to the estimation timing of the second total amount of power generation.

[0074] Then, the calculation device 100 calculates the total power generation amount A assuming that the operation of the target wind power generation device is not restricted during the restricted period based on the previous wind condition data and the above-mentioned estimation algorithm. The calculation device 100 also calculates the total power generation amount B in a state in which the operation of the target wind power generation device is restricted during the restricted period. Furthermore, the total power generation amount A is greater than the total power generation amount B. If the restricted period is a period in which the operation of the target wind power generation device is stopped, the total power generation amount B becomes 0.

[0075] Then, the calculation device 100 calculates the second total power generation amount by subtracting the total power generation amount B from the total power generation amount A. In this way, the second total power generation amount is the total power generation amount that could not be generated due to restrictions on the operation of the target wind power generation device during the restricted period.

[0076] Then, the calculation device 100 calculates the total amount of power generation by subtracting the second total amount of power generation from the first total amount of power generation. That is, the processing unit 114 calculates the total amount of power generation by the following formula (1).

[0077] Total power generation = Total power generation in 1st power plant - Total power generation in 2nd power plant (1) Furthermore, the calculation device 100 calculates the total price by multiplying the total power generation amount by the power selling price (information input into the power selling price input image 307 in FIG. 2). That is, the processing unit 114 calculates the total price by the following formula (2).

[0078] Total price = Total power generation × Power selling price (2) Furthermore, the calculation device 100 calculates the total price difference by subtracting the total maintenance cost from the total price. That is, the processing unit 114 calculates the total price difference by the following formula (3).

[0079] Total differential price = Total price - Total maintenance cost (3) Here, the total maintenance cost in equation (3) is, for example, the total value of the maintenance costs corresponding to each of at least one abnormality estimated during the target period.

[0080] Then, the processing unit 114 generates image data of a result screen (result screen data) based on the calculation result. The calculation result is the total power generation amount of formula (1), the total differential price and total maintenance cost of formula (3), the power generation amount per unit time, and the differential price per unit time. The transmission unit 116 refers to the first DB 141 and transmits the result screen data to the user terminal 50 corresponding to the wind turbine generator ID of the target wind turbine generator. Then, the user terminal 50 displays a result screen (FIG. 3) corresponding to the result screen data.

[0081] [flowchart] Fig. 8 is a flowchart showing the main processing of the calculation device 100. The flowchart of Fig. 8 starts when the user terminal 50 transmits input information input on the input screen of Fig. 2 to the calculation device 100.

[0082] First, in step S2, the calculation device 100 acquires input information from the user terminal 50. Next, in step S4, the calculation device 100 acquires wind condition data for the target period at the installation location of the target wind turbine power generation device from the weather server 70. Furthermore, in step S4, the calculation device 100 acquires CMS data of other wind turbine power generation devices related to the target wind turbine power generation device from the CMS server 60. After completing the processing of step S4, the calculation device 100 executes the processing of step S6 and step S10 below.

[0083] In step S6, the calculation device 100 generates usable wind condition data by excluding wind condition data for the operation suspension period from the wind condition data acquired in step S4.

[0084] Next, in step S8, the calculation device 100 estimates the amount of power generation per unit time during the target period using the wind condition data and the above-mentioned estimation algorithm. Furthermore, the calculation device 100 calculates the sum of the amounts of power generation per unit time as the first total amount of power generation.

[0085] In step S10, the calculation device 100 uses the time-series data of the target wind turbine generator and the CMS data of the other wind turbine generators to estimate the abnormality ID of a future abnormality of the target wind turbine generator and the time when the abnormality will occur. After completing the process of step S10, the calculation device 100 executes the process of step S12 and the process of step S18 below.

[0086] In step S12, the calculation device 100 estimates the restriction period. Specifically, the calculation device 100 refers to the second DB (see FIG. 6) and acquires a maintenance period corresponding to at least one of the estimated abnormality IDs using the estimated abnormality ID as a key. Furthermore, the calculation device 100 estimates the abnormality period based on the abnormality ID and the time when the abnormality occurred. Then, in step S12, the calculation device 100 estimates the restriction period by integrating the abnormality period and the maintenance period.

[0087] Next, in step S14, the calculation device 100 calculates the second total power generation amount (the power generation amount that could not be generated due to the restriction on the operation of the wind turbine generator 20 during the restriction period).

[0088] Next, in step S16, the calculation device 100 calculates the total power generation amount using equation (1).

[0089] In step S18, the second DB is referenced to acquire a maintenance cost using at least one abnormality ID as a key. Next, in step S20, the calculation device 100 calculates the total maintenance cost as the sum of the acquired maintenance costs.

[0090] Next, in step S22, the calculation device 100 calculates the total price difference using the above formulas (2) and (3). Next, in step S24, the calculation device 100 outputs result screen data to the user terminal 50. The user terminal 50 displays, for example, the result screen shown in FIG. 3.

[0091] As shown in the upper left of FIG. 8, the processes of steps S8, S12, S14, and S16 are collectively referred to as a total power generation amount estimation step (step S50).

[0092] [Summary] (1) As described above, the calculation device 100 estimates the first total power generation amount for the target period of the target wind power generation device (step S6). The calculation device 100 also acquires the restriction period (for example, a maintenance period) based on the restriction information (step S12). Next, the calculation device 100 estimates the second total power generation amount that could not be generated due to the operation restriction of the target power generation device during the restriction period (step S14). The calculation device 100 then calculates the total power generation amount by subtracting the second total power generation amount from the first total power generation amount (step S16). In this way, the calculation device 100 calculates the total power generation amount by subtracting the second total power generation amount that could not be generated due to the operation restriction of the wind power generation device during the estimated restriction period from the first total power generation amount. Therefore, the calculation device of this embodiment can calculate the total power generation amount that reflects the second total power generation amount that could not be generated. Therefore, the calculation device can improve the accuracy of the total power generation amount compared to a calculation device that calculates the total power generation amount without subtracting the second total power generation amount.

[0093] (2) Furthermore, the calculation device 100 estimates the maintenance to be performed on the target wind power generation device, and the limited period includes the period during which this maintenance will be performed (maintenance period) (step S12 in FIGS. 6 and 8). The calculation device 100 then calculates the total differential price by subtracting the total maintenance cost from the total price (the above formulas (2) and (3), step S22). In this way, the calculation device 100 calculates the total differential price by subtracting the total maintenance cost paid to the maintainer from the total price calculated from the total power generation amount. Therefore, the calculation device 100 of this embodiment can make the user aware of the total differential price, which is the user's actual income.

[0094] The total price difference, which is the actual income for the user of the target wind power generation device, can also be referred to as the “asset value of the target wind power generation device.” Therefore, the calculation device 100 can calculate the total price difference as the “asset value of the target wind power generation device.”

[0095] (3) Furthermore, the calculation device 100 executes a process for displaying a display screen (result screen in FIG. 3) including the total amount of power generation and the total difference price on a predetermined terminal (user terminal 50). This process is a process for transmitting result screen data (step S24 in FIG. 8) to the user terminal 50. With this configuration, the calculation device 100 can make the user of the user terminal 50 aware of the total amount of power generation and the total power selling price.

[0096] The calculation device 100 may display the result screen on another device (for example, the calculation device 100), or may store the result screen data in another storage medium. The calculation device 100 may also print an image based on the result screen data on a sheet (paper).

[0097] (4) As shown in Fig. 3, the user terminal 50 displays a first graph image 411 and a second graph image 412. The first graph image 411 is an image showing the amount of power generated per unit time. The second graph image 412 is an image showing the price difference per unit time. Therefore, the calculation device 100 allows the user of the user terminal 50 to recognize the amount of power generated per unit time and the price difference per unit time.

[0098] (5) The user can input the conditions for stopping the operation of the target wind power generation device (see "Stop Condition Input Image 306" in FIG. 7). Therefore, the calculation device 100 can calculate the total power generation amount by setting the limited period as a period according to the user's intention. This improves user convenience.

[0099] (6) The restriction information includes a first physical quantity (time-series data) detected by a first sensor provided in the target wind turbine generator. With this configuration, the calculation device 100 can estimate the restriction period using the detected value of the first sensor provided in the target wind turbine generator.

[0100] (7) The calculation device 100 identifies other wind turbine generators related to the target wind turbine generator based on the attribute information. The restriction information includes a second physical quantity detected by a sensor (second sensor) provided in the other wind turbine generator and a past abnormality that occurred in the other wind turbine generator (see FIG. 4). The calculation device 100 then determines whether an abnormality identical to a past abnormality will occur in the wind turbine generator based on the first physical quantity and the second physical quantity. In this way, the calculation device 100 determines whether an abnormality identical to a past abnormality will occur in the target wind turbine generator based on the first physical quantity and the second physical quantity, and therefore can improve the accuracy of determining whether an abnormality exists in the wind turbine generator compared to a device that determines whether an abnormality exists without using the second physical quantity and the past abnormality.

[0101] [Variations] (1) The method for calculating the above-mentioned power generation amount (first total power generation amount, second total power generation amount) and maintenance costs is not limited to the above-mentioned method, and other methods may be used. For example, other methods may be used to calculate the amounts using AI.

[0102] (2) In the above example, an embodiment has been described in which the power generation device is a wind power generation device. However, the power generation device may be another type of power generation device. For example, the power generation device may be a solar power generation device.

[0103] (3) In the above embodiment, the restriction period and the shutdown period are separate periods. However, the shutdown period may be included in the restriction period. If such a configuration is adopted, the restriction information includes wind condition data.

[0104] (4) A configuration may be adopted in which some of the processes described above performed by the computing device 100 are performed by another device. In the present disclosure, when such a configuration is adopted, the computing device and the other device are collectively referred to as the computing device.

[0105] [Note] The embodiments disclosed herein should be considered to be illustrative in all respects and not restrictive. The scope of the present invention is defined by the claims, not by the description of the above embodiments, and is intended to include all modifications within the meaning and scope of the claims.

[0106] (Supplementary Note 1) The calculation device of the present disclosure includes a calculation device and an interface. The calculation device estimates the total amount of power generated by the power generation device for a future target period. The interface acquires environmental data for the target period of the installation location of the power generation device and restriction information for the calculation device to estimate a restriction period during which operation of the power generation device will be restricted in the future. The calculation device estimates a first total amount of power generated by the power generation device for the target period based on the environmental data. The calculation device also estimates the restriction period based on the restriction information, and estimates a second total amount of power generation that could not be generated due to restrictions on operation of the power generation device during the restriction period. The calculation device then calculates the total amount of power generation by subtracting the second total amount of power generation from the first total amount of power generation.

[0107] With this configuration, the total power generation amount is calculated by subtracting the second total power generation amount that could not be generated due to the operation restriction of the power generation device during the estimated restricted period from the first total power generation amount, thereby improving the accuracy of the total power generation amount compared to a calculation device that calculates the total power generation amount without subtracting the second total power generation amount.

[0108] (Appendix 2) The power generation device described in Appendix 1, wherein the restricted period includes a maintenance period for future maintenance to be performed on the power generation device, and the calculation device calculates a total price for the total power generation, calculates the cost of the maintenance as a total maintenance cost based on the restricted information, and calculates a total differential price by subtracting the total maintenance cost from the total price.

[0109] With this configuration, the total price difference is calculated by subtracting the total maintenance costs paid by the user to the maintenance company from the total price calculated from the total power generation amount. Therefore, the calculation device can make the user aware of the total price difference, which is the user's actual income.

[0110] (Supplementary Note 3) The power generation device according to Supplementary Note 2, wherein the computing device executes a process for displaying a display screen including at least one of the total amount of power generation and the total price difference on a predetermined terminal.

[0111] According to this configuration, at least one of the total amount of power generation and the total power selling price can be made known to the user of the predetermined terminal.

[0112] (Appendix 4) A power generation device as described in Appendix 2 or Appendix 3, wherein the calculation device estimates the amount of power generation per unit time during a target period and calculates the differential price by subtracting maintenance costs from the amount of power generation per unit time, and the display screen includes at least one of a first graph image showing the amount of power generation per unit time and a second graph image showing the differential price per unit time.

[0113] According to this configuration, it is possible to make the user of a predetermined terminal aware of at least one of the amount of power generation per unit time and the price difference per unit time.

[0114] (Supplementary Note 5) The computing device receives an input of a stop condition for the operation of the power generation device from a user, and generates the usage environment data by excluding environmental data for a stop period during which the operation of the power generation device is stopped due to the satisfaction of the stop condition from the environmental data acquired by the interface; The power generating device according to any one of Supplementary Note 1 to Supplementary Note 4, wherein the first total amount of power generation is calculated based on the usage environment data.

[0115] With this configuration, the limited period can be set according to the user's intention. (Supplementary Note 6) The calculation device according to any one of Supplementary Note 1 to Supplementary Note 5, wherein the restriction information includes a first physical quantity detected by a sensor included in the power generation device.

[0116] According to this configuration, the limited period can be estimated using the first physical quantity. (Supplementary Note 7) A calculation device according to Supplementary Note 6, wherein the calculation device receives input of attribute information of the power generation device from a user, the restriction information includes a second physical quantity detected by a sensor provided on another power generation device related to the power generation device and a past abnormality that has occurred in the other power generation device, the other power generation device being identified based on the attribute information, and the calculation device determines whether an abnormality identical to the past abnormality will occur in the power generation device based on the first physical quantity and the second physical quantity.

[0117] With this configuration, the presence or absence of an abnormality in the power generation device that is the same as a past abnormality is determined based on the first physical quantity and the second physical quantity, thereby improving the accuracy of determining whether or not an abnormality exists in the power generation device compared to a device that determines whether or not an abnormality exists without using the second physical quantity and abnormality information.

[0118] (Supplementary Note 8) The calculation device according to any one of Supplementary Notes 1 to 7, wherein the power generation device is a wind power generation device.

[0119] With this configuration, the accuracy of the total power generation amount of the wind turbine generator can be improved. (Supplementary Note 9) A calculation method comprising: estimating a total power generation amount of a power generation device for a future target period; and acquiring environmental data for the target period of the installation location of the power generation device and restriction information for a calculation device to estimate a restriction period during which operation of the power generation device will be restricted in the future, wherein estimating the total power generation amount comprises estimating a first total power generation amount for the target period of the power generation device based on the environmental data; estimating the restriction period based on the restriction information; estimating a second total power generation amount that could not be generated due to restrictions on operation of the power generation device during the restriction period; and calculating the total power generation amount by subtracting the second total power generation amount from the first total power generation amount. [Explanation of symbols]

[0120] 10 Management system, 20 Wind power generation device, 21 Gearbox, 30 Collection device, 45 Wind power generation unit, 50 User terminal, 60 CMS server, 70 Weather server, 100 Calculation device, 102 Arithmetic device, 104 Memory, 106 Interface, 112 Receiving unit, 114 Processing unit, 116 Transmitting unit, 118 Storage unit, 300 Input screen, 301 Character image, 302 Wind power generation device input image, 303 Gearbox input image, 304 Installation location input image, 305 Target years input image, 306 Stop condition input image, 307 Power selling price input image, 400 Result screen, 401 Total power generation amount image, 402 Total difference price image, 403 Maintenance cost image, 404 Graph image, 411 First graph image, 412 Second graph image.

Claims

1. a computing device that estimates the total amount of power generated by the power generation device for a future target period; an interface for acquiring environmental data for the target period at the installation location of the power generation device and restriction information for the calculation device to estimate a restriction period during which operation of the power generation device will be restricted in the future; The computing device estimating a first total power generation amount of the power generation device for the target period based on the environmental data; Estimating the restriction period based on the restriction information; estimating a second total amount of power generation that could not be generated due to the restriction on operation of the power generation device during the restriction period; A calculation device that calculates the total amount of power generation by subtracting the second total amount of power generation from the first total amount of power generation.

2. the limited period includes a maintenance period for future maintenance to be performed on the power generation device, The computing device calculating a total price for said total electricity generation; Calculating the maintenance cost as a total maintenance cost based on the restriction information; The calculation device according to claim 1 , wherein the total differential price is calculated by subtracting a total maintenance cost from the total price.

3. The calculation device according to claim 2 , wherein the arithmetic device executes a process for displaying a display screen including at least one of the total power generation amount and the total price difference on a predetermined terminal.

4. The computing device Estimate the amount of power generated per unit time during the target period; Calculate a differential price by subtracting the maintenance cost from the amount of power generated per unit time, The display screen includes: a first graph image showing the amount of power generated per unit time; and a second graph image showing the differential price for each unit time.

5. The computing device receiving an input of a condition for stopping operation of the power generation device from a user; generating use environment data by excluding environmental data during a shutdown period in which operation of the power generation device is stopped due to the satisfaction of the shutdown condition from the environmental data acquired by the interface; 4. The calculation device according to claim 1, wherein the first total power generation amount is calculated based on the usage environment data.

6. 4. The calculation device according to claim 1, wherein the restriction information includes a first physical quantity detected by a sensor provided in the power generation device.

7. the computing device accepts input of attribute information of the power generation device from a user; The restriction information is a second physical quantity detected by a sensor included in another power generation device related to the power generation device; a past abnormality that has occurred in the other power generation device in the past, the other power generation device is identified based on the attribute information, The calculation device according to claim 6 , wherein the arithmetic device determines whether an abnormality identical to the past abnormality occurs in the power generation device based on the first physical quantity and the second physical quantity.

8. The calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the power generation device is a wind power generation device.

9. Estimating the total power generation capacity of the power generating units for a future time period; acquiring environmental data for the target period at an installation location of the power generation device and restriction information for estimating a restriction period during which operation of the power generation device will be restricted in the future; estimating the total power generation amount estimating a first total power generation amount of the power generation device for the target period based on the environmental data; estimating the restriction period based on the restriction information; estimating a second total amount of power generation that could not be generated due to the restriction on operation of the power generation device during the restriction period; calculating the total power generation amount by subtracting the second total power generation amount from the first total power generation amount.

Images