A method and apparatus for evaluating the technical value of research and development technologies.

Abstract

The present invention relates to a method and apparatus for evaluating the technical value of research and development technologies, which enables fair evaluation of technical value by appropriately applying risk factors associated with technology research and development activities. The method for evaluating the technical value of research and development technologies according to the present invention is provided to enable fair evaluation of research and development technologies by first calculating the net present value of total sales (a) from the first year to the expected product life cycle period (n), the risk-adjusted net present value of research and development expenses (b) from the first year to the research and development completion year (k), the costs required to generate sales after the research and development activities from the research and development completion year (k+1) to the expected product life cycle period (n) (c), and the residual value (d) after the end of the product life cycle (PLC).

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a method and apparatus for evaluating technical value, and particularly to a method and apparatus for evaluating technical value specialized for research and development technology, which appropriately apply risk factors associated with technical research and development activities to perform fair technical value evaluation.

Background Art

[0002] In recent years, with the rapid progress of technology, the importance of technical research and development has been further enhanced. FIG. 1 shows a general process of technical research and development. Research and development related to technology (hereinafter referred to in parallel with "R&D") consists of a structure of about seven stages, namely, new product strategy, idea creation, review and evaluation, business analysis, design and development, test, and commercialization stages. By category, it may be divided into five stages: idea stage, evaluation and analysis stage, development and test, and commercialization.

[0003] The development cost of new products tends to increase exponentially over time (Buggie, F.D., 2002). The success of innovative commercialization is strategically important for enterprises, but these research and development activities require about 3,000 original ideas and have uncertainties ranging from about 30% to 95% (Cooper & Edgett, 2008).

[0004] Thus, the possibility of failure due to uncertainty in research and development activities is called risk, and one of the industries with extremely high research and development risks is the biotechnology industry. For example, in new drug development, only one out of approximately 5,000 to 10,000 candidate substances is commercialized, and only one out of three commercialized products recoups the research and development costs (Standard & Poor's Industry Survey, 2008). Furthermore, new drug development requires a long period of more than 10 years and an enormous investment of research and development costs, and must pass the stage of clinical trials before being launched. However, if the research and development is successful in commercializing, it is a high-risk, high-return industry in which a monopolistic position can be occupied for many years and profits can be earned. From this point of view as well, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries are representative industries that represent the risks of development in research and development industry activities.

[0005] Thus, corporate technological development is accompanied by enormous inherent uncertainty, and the decision-making of investors and managers plays a crucial role in the future of the company. For such decision-making, a basis for judging the value of technology is necessary. Technology evaluation is the process of comprehensively assessing the value of technology according to its technicality, marketability, and business viability, and expressing the results in terms of monetary value, grade, or opinion. One type of technology evaluation is technology valuation, which quantifies technology in monetary terms through the evaluation of the economic value created by technologies intended for commercialization or technologies that have been commercialized, based on generally accepted valuation principles and methodologies in the technology market.

[0006] Technical valuation is neither visible nor tangible for three main reasons: firstly, it is often embodied as knowledge or physical assets, making it difficult to grasp its precise content and scope; secondly, the economic value of technology is influenced by various non-technical factors and is only realized after commercialization in the market; and thirdly, since valuation is traded in the technology supplier market, it is difficult to reach a balanced price through market mechanisms. Therefore, a tangible and visible approach to technical valuation is necessary, but currently used technical valuation methods can be broadly classified into three approaches depending on their application and purpose: the income approach, the cost approach, and the market approach.

[0007] The income approach is a future-oriented evaluation method that assesses the value of a technology by converting the future cash flows generated by utilizing the technology under evaluation into present value. When the technology asset under evaluation is applied to a product and commercialized, the present value calculated by applying a certain discount rate to the future cash flows that can be generated is used as the basis for evaluating the technology's value. However, a limitation of this approach is that the process of predicting the future income generated by the technology under evaluation is subjective.

[0008] The cost approach is a method of evaluation based on historical data, assessing the value of technology in terms of reproduction costs or replacement costs. That is, it estimates the value of a technology based on the costs required to develop a similar technology with the same functionality as the original. While the applicability of this cost approach is very limited because it measures the value of technology based on historical costs rather than its potential to generate wealth, it requires accurate cost data and depreciation expenses.

[0009] The market approach is a method of evaluating the value of a technology by referencing transaction prices of similar technologies traded in the relevant industry, and by valuing the technology asset based on the price of comparable assets that are exchanged voluntarily. Although the theoretical basis of such a market approach is rational, its applicability is quite limited because there are few active markets where publicly available information, prices, and comparability are readily available. [Prior art documents] [Patent Documents]

[0010] [Patent Document 1] Registered Patent Publication No. 10-2018679 of the Republic of Korea (Registered August 30, 2019) [Patent Document 2] Detailed Description of the Invention (Published in the Korean Patent Gazette No. 10-2019-0008483, published January 24, 2019)

[0011] [Technical issues] As described above, the income approach, cost approach, and market approach, which are currently the main methods used in technology valuation, all have limitations in terms of their scope of application. This invention was proposed to overcome these limitations of conventional technology valuation, and its objective is to provide a technology valuation method and apparatus specifically for research and development technologies that enable fair evaluation of technology value by appropriately applying the risks that arise in research and development activities. Technical Solution

[0012] The technical value evaluation method according to the present invention, which is specifically for research and development technologies to achieve the above objective, is a method for evaluating the technical value of research and development (R&D) technologies. For technologies under research and development, the net present value of total sales from the first year to the expected product life cycle period (n) (a) is calculated, the risk-adjusted net present value of research and development expenses from the first year to the research and development completion year (k) (b) is calculated, the expenses required to generate sales after the research and development activities from the research and development completion year (k+1) to the expected product life cycle period (n) (c) is calculated, and the residual value after the end of the product life cycle (PLC) is calculated (d). Then, the risk-adjusted net present value (b) and the expenses required to generate sales after the research and development activities (c) are subtracted from the calculated net present value of total sales (a), and the residual value (d) is added to calculate the technical value. Here, the risk-adjusted net present value (b) is calculated by the following formula 3:

number

[0013] In formula 3 above, t is the fiscal year, k is the year of completion of the research and development (R&D), r is the discount rate, RCt is the research and development cost incurred in year t, and PCt is the cumulative probability of success incurred in year t, calculated by multiplying the cumulative probability of success up to the previous R&D stage (PCp) by the probability of success of R&D at the current stage (PSc) (PCt = PCp × PSc).

[0014] On the other hand, the technology value evaluation device according to the present invention, which is specialized for research and development technology to achieve the above objective, is a device for evaluating the technology value of research and development (R&D) technology, comprising: an evaluation data calculation unit that calculates evaluation data including the expected product life cycle period (n), annual sales (St), discount rate (r), R&D completion year (k), annual R&D expenses (RCt), annual cumulative success probability (PCt), annual input costs for sales (ICt), annual depreciation expenses (DAt), and residual value (RV) for technology under research and development; and, based on the evaluation data calculated by the evaluation data calculation unit, the net present value of total sales from the first year to the expected product life cycle period (n) (a), the risk-adjusted net present value of research and development expenses from the first year to the R&D completion year (k) (b), the costs required to generate sales from the R&D activities after the R&D completion year (k+1) to the expected product life cycle period (n) (c), and the product life cycle (PLC; Product life The system includes a technology valuation unit that calculates the residual value (d) after the end of the cycle, subtracts the risk-adjusted net present value (b) and the costs required to generate sales after the research and development activities (c) from the net present value (a) of the total sales calculated above, and then adds the residual value (d) to calculate the technology value. In the above-mentioned technical valuation unit, the above-mentioned risk-adjusted net present value (b) is calculated by the following formula 3:

number

[0015] In formula 3 above, t is the fiscal year, k is the year of completion of the research and development (R&D), r is the discount rate, RCt is the research and development cost incurred in year t, and PCt is the cumulative probability of success incurred in year t, calculated by multiplying the cumulative probability of success up to the previous R&D stage (PCp) by the probability of success of R&D at the current stage (PSc) (PCt = PCp × PSc). [Effects of the invention]

[0016] According to the present invention, by applying the risk against the failure of research and development, considering the cost data and depreciation expenses associated with research and development, and evaluating the technology value by referring to the value of similar technologies traded in the market, it is possible to overcome the limit based on past expenses and enable more accurate value evaluation. As a result, when investors and enterprises make decisions regarding investment or technology cooperation, it has the effect of assisting them to conduct a more careful evaluation.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0017] Figure 1 is a flowchart showing a conventional general technology research and development process. Figure 2 is a flowchart showing the technology value evaluation procedure according to the present invention. Figure 3 is a network connection diagram of the technology value evaluation device according to the present invention. Figure 4 is a block configuration diagram of the technology value evaluation device according to the present invention. Figure 5 shows an example of a graph comparing the result value of the technology value evaluation according to the present invention with the conventional NPV method. Best Mode for Carrying Out the Invention

[0018] Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0019] In the present invention, a technology value evaluation method specialized for technologies during research and development is presented. For this purpose, in the present invention, the disadvantages of the income approach method, cost approach method, and market approach method are improved, and these are integrated into one to present a tangible and visible technology value evaluation model. The technology value evaluation model according to the present invention determines the technology value by estimating the cash flow prediction period for the technology during research and development, annual cash flow, industry variables acting as success probabilities, input costs for sales creation, depreciation expenses, residual value, and the like. The technology value evaluation model presented in the present invention is as follows in Equation 1 below:

Number

[0020] Regarding the technical value evaluation model of the above formula 1, it is as follows. (a) Net present value of total sales [Number]

[0021] The above formula 2 shows the net present value of the total sales generated by the research and development technology from the next year to the predicted product life cycle period (n) based on the evaluation time point. To evaluate the value of the research and development technology, it is necessary to convert the total annual sales into the present value. The sales of the research and development technology should be estimated based on the current sales volume used for similar indications. In this estimation process, factors such as market share, sales volume, and the valid period of patents are considered. (b) Risk-adjusted net present value of research and development expenses [Number]

[0022] Equation 3 shows the risk-adjusted net present value of research and development (R&D) expenses from the first year to the R&D completion year (k). R&D activities in the R&D technology field proceed through multiple R&D stages related to the probability of success. Therefore, it is essential to calculate the risk using the cumulative probability of success of each R&D stage during the R&D period (k). The cost reflecting the risk at each R&D stage can be expressed as "RCt(2-PCt)", where "RCt" is the R&D cost and the cumulative probability of success "PCt" means the cumulative probability of success at the relevant R&D stage. The above cumulative probability of success (PCt) is calculated by multiplying the cumulative probability of success up to the previous R&D stage (PCp) by the R&D success probability at the current stage (PSc) (PCt = PCp × PSc). Furthermore, it is essential to convert the total cost to which risk is applied over the entire R&D period into present value. Through such a conversion, risk can be applied to technology R&D activities using Equation 2. (c) Expenses required to generate sales after research and development activities.

number

[0023] Equation 4 shows the costs required to generate revenue from research and development activities from the year after R&D completion (k+1) to the estimated product life cycle period (n). To ensure a fair valuation of the technology assets related to R&D technology, it is important to consider the annual costs incurred in generating revenue after the completion of R&D activities. Therefore, the input costs (ICt) from the end of the R&D phase (k+1) to the estimated product life cycle (PLC) period (n) are subtracted. Here, depreciation and amortization (DAt) should be reflected in the R&D technology valuation, and these costs are also converted to present value. (d) residual value

number

[0024] Equation 5 shows the residual value after the end of the product life cycle (PLC). When the product life cycle (PLC) of research and development technology ends, the residual value (RV) of tangible and intangible assets must be included in the evaluation of the research and development technology. Therefore, the residual value of the tangible and intangible assets of the research and development technology at the end of the final year of the product life cycle (PLC) is calculated and converted to present value.

[0025] The technology value evaluation model presented in this invention, represented by Formula 1, calculates the final technology value by subtracting the risk-adjusted net present value of research and development expenses (Formula 3) from the net present value of total sales from the first year to the expected product life cycle period (n) (Formula 2), subtracting the costs required to generate sales after the research and development activities (Formula 4) from the year of research and development completion (k+1) to the expected product life cycle period (n), and then adding the residual value after the end of the product life cycle (Formula 5).

[0026] Thus, the technology valuation model presented in this invention through Equation 1 can be used to fairly evaluate the value of research and development technology if it can be expressed on a present value basis, taking into account factors such as final sales, risk-adjusted research and development costs, costs incurred from sales after the research and development activities, and residual value from last year.

[0027] The following describes a technical value evaluation device to which a technical value evaluation model specifically tailored to the research and development technology according to the present invention is applied.

[0028] Figure 2 is a flowchart showing the procedure for evaluating the technical value according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0029] As shown in Figure 2, the technology valuation according to the present invention follows the procedure of analyzing industry-specific valuation factors, estimating the economic lifespan of the technology, estimating cash flows, and determining the technology value. Specifically, in order to perform a technology valuation specifically for technologies under research and development, the present invention analyzes industry-specific valuation factors related to the use of the probability of success of research and development as a risk adjustment variable, along with an analysis of the technicality, marketability, business viability, and patentability. Then, the economic lifespan of the technology is estimated, and the cash flow is estimated through estimation of sales, risk adjustment using costs and industry-specific variables, estimation of input costs and depreciation for sales generation, estimation of residual value, etc., and the technology value is determined.

[0030] Figure 3 shows a network connection diagram of a technical value evaluation device according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0031] As shown in Figure 3, the technical value evaluation device (100) according to the present invention communicates with a user terminal (200) via a network and transmits and receives data.

[0032] The user terminal (200) described above is a user computer that connects to a technical value evaluation device (100) via a network, requests a technical value evaluation from the technical value evaluation device (100), provides data for the technical value evaluation, and receives the results of the technical value evaluation. Such a user computer can consist of a computer device such as a PC, notebook computer, PDA, or smartphone equipped with communication functions.

[0033] The above-mentioned technology value evaluation device (100) is a server computer specializing in research and development technologies, which calculates and evaluates technology value. This technology value evaluation device (100) calculates technology value based on requests from user terminals (200) or input from administrators, and provides it to the user terminals (200) or administrators. The technology value evaluation device (100) requests and receives information for technology evaluation from user terminals (200), analyzes this information to calculate technology value, and derives evaluation results. The technology value evaluation device (100) may also connect to external devices via a network for technology value evaluation, and may receive data for technology value evaluation from external devices.

[0034] Figure 4 shows a block diagram of a technical value evaluation device according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0035] As shown in Figure 4, the technology value evaluation device (100) according to the present invention includes an evaluation data input unit (110) for inputting evaluation data for evaluating the value of a technology under research and development, an evaluation data calculation unit (120) for estimating evaluation factors using the evaluation data input through the evaluation data input unit (110), a technology value evaluation unit (130) for evaluating the technology value based on the evaluation factors calculated by the evaluation data calculation unit (120), and a database (140) for storing and managing data for technology value evaluation. The technology value evaluation device (100) also includes a standard computer configuration that performs functions such as data input, processing, and output, but it also includes, for example, input devices such as a keyboard and mouse, output devices such as a monitor, communication devices for network connection, a microprocessor for data processing, and storage devices such as RAM and ROHM. Since such a configuration follows a known configuration, a detailed explanation is omitted.

[0036] The above-mentioned evaluation data input unit (110) is a program module that inputs evaluation data so that the factors for evaluating the technical value of a technology under research and development can be estimated. This evaluation data input unit (110) receives data such as the cash flow estimation period for the technology under research and development, annual cash flow, industry-specific variables that act as success probabilities, input costs for generating sales, depreciation expenses, and residual value.

[0037] The above-mentioned evaluation data calculation unit (120) is a program module that analyzes the data input through the evaluation data input unit (110) and calculates evaluation factors so that the technical value can be evaluated using the technical value evaluation model of Formula 1. The above-mentioned evaluation data calculation unit (120) calculates the expected product life cycle period (n), annual sales (St), discount rate (r), R&D completion year (k), annual R&D expenses (RCt), annual cumulative success probability (PCt), annual input costs for sales (ICt), annual depreciation expenses (DAt), and residual value (RV) for the technology under research and development. The data for technical value evaluation calculated by the above-mentioned evaluation data calculation unit (120) is registered in the database (140).

[0038] The above-mentioned technology value evaluation unit (130) is a program module that calculates the value of the target technology using the data calculated by the evaluation data calculation unit (120). This technology value evaluation unit (130) performs technology value evaluation using the technology value evaluation model of formula 1. In other words, as explained in formulas 1 to 5, the technology value evaluation unit (130) calculates the final technology value by subtracting the risk-adjusted net present value of research and development expenses from the first year to the research and development completion year (k), subtracting the expenses required to generate sales after the research and development activities have been conducted (k+1) until the product life cycle (n), and then adding the residual value after the end of the product life cycle (PLC).

[0039] The data calculated through the above process is registered in the database (140), which stores data such as the estimated product life cycle period (n), annual sales (St), discount rate (r), R&D completion year (k), annual R&D expenses (RCt), annual cumulative success probability (PCt), annual input costs for sales (ICt), annual depreciation expenses (DAt), and residual value (RV) calculated by the evaluation data calculation unit (120). In addition, data such as the net present value of total sales, risk-adjusted net present value of R&D expenses, costs required to generate sales after R&D activities, residual value, and the results of the R&D value calculation, calculated by the technology value evaluation unit (130), are also registered.

[0040] The technical value calculation information obtained through the above process is provided to the user who requested the technical value evaluation. (Mode for carrying out the invention)

[0041] The following describes an example in which the technical value evaluation model proposed in this invention is applied to next-generation insulin treatment technology for diabetes, which is currently under research and development, to evaluate its technical value.

[0042] Table 1 below shows an example of the assumptions made regarding the diabetes market data. [Table 1]

[0043] The market size was estimated assuming the total number of diabetic patients using insulin in the United States as the maximum value, reflecting a mean annual population growth rate of 0.68%, with a maximum market share of 5%, the price per drug estimated by dividing the average annual consumption cost of insulin used by diabetic patients in the United States by the number of patients, with a sales peak maintenance period of 2 years, a residual value of 30%, and a discount rate of 20%.

[0044] The development phase assumes that preclinical testing is complete, and future clinical trials will take one year each, totaling four years of development time. Based on a six-year revenue generation period, a total of ten years of economic adjustment for the technology was assumed, and the variables necessary for cash flow estimation were assumed as shown in Table 2 below. [Table 2]

[0045] In this example, each clinical phase was assumed to last one year for convenience, but in order to conduct a substantive evaluation of the drug for future clinical trials, it will be necessary to extend this to the actual clinical period. In this example, "R&D 0" refers to the present and includes the costs of all previous phases, but in this example, it is assumed to be preclinical costs.

[0046] Based on the above variables, sales were estimated as follows: [Table 3]

[0047] For ease of calculation, these costs were combined as preclinical expenses. Furthermore, depreciation was assumed to be applied as a fixed amount to the invested capital.

[0048] Based on this calculation data, the technology value is calculated using Equation 1, resulting in the technology value shown in Table 4 below. This table shows that the technology's value currently differs from that of conventional methods by approximately $300 million. [Table 4]

[0049] Figure 5 visually shows the year-by-year changes in technological value, comparing the results from Table 4 with the conventional NPV (net present value) method. The fact that the graph of technological value using the NPV method is positioned below the graph of technological value using the conventional method indicates that the value was overestimated in the conventional method, which does not reflect the risks of R&D development. This shows that the technological value evaluation model presented in the present invention evaluates technological value more accurately than the conventional NPV method.

[0050] As described above, the present invention presents a technology value assessment model specifically for research and development technologies. The technology value assessment model represented by Formula 1 presented in the present invention makes it possible to perform a fair valuation of research and development technologies by calculating the technology value by reflecting the net present value of total sales up to the expected product life cycle period, the risk-adjusted net present value of research and development expenses up to the year of completion of research and development, the costs required to generate sales after the research and development activities, and the residual value after the end of the product life cycle (PLC).

[0051] The present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, and it goes without saying that various modifications and variations can be made by persons with ordinary skill in the art to which the present invention belongs, within the scope of the equivalents of the technical concept of the present invention and the claims described below. [Explanation of Symbols]

[0052] 100: Technology Value Evaluation Device 110: Evaluation data input section 120: Evaluation Data Calculation Unit 130: Technical Value Assessment Department 140: Database

Claims

1. In a method for evaluating the technical value of research and development (R&D) technology in a technical value evaluation device, the technical value evaluation device calculates, for a technology under research and development, the net present value (a) of total sales from the first year to the predicted product life cycle period (n), the risk-adjusted net present value (b) of R&D costs from the first year to the R&D completion year (k), the costs (c) required for generating sales after R&D activities from the year after the R&D completion year (k + 1) to the predicted product life cycle period (n), and the residual value (d) after the end of the product life cycle (PLC; Product life cycle), and then calculates the technical value by subtracting the risk-adjusted net present value (b) and the costs (c) required for generating sales after R&D activities from the calculated net present value (a) of total sales and then adding the residual value (d), where the risk-adjusted net present value (b) is calculated by the following Equation 3, a technical value evaluation method: [Math 1] In the above Equation 3, t is the year, k is the R&D completion year, r is the discount rate, RCt is the R&D cost incurred in year t, and PCt is the cumulative success probability incurred in year t, which is calculated by multiplying the cumulative success probability up to the previous R&D stage (PCp) and the success probability of R&D at the current stage (PSc) (PCt = PCp × PSc).

2. The technical value evaluation method according to Claim 1, wherein the technical value is calculated by the following Equation 1: [Math 2] t: year n: predicted product life cycle period St: sales generated in year t r: discount rate k: R&D completion year RCt: R&D cost incurred in year t PCt = PCp × PSc: cumulative success probability incurred in year t PCp: cumulative success probability up to the previous R&D stage PSc: success probability of R&D at the current R&D stage ICt: input costs for sales generated in year t DAt: depreciation expense incurred in year t RV: residual value

3. In a device for evaluating the technical value of research and development (R&D) technology An evaluation data calculation unit (120) calculates evaluation data including the projected product life cycle period (n), annual sales (St), discount rate (r), R&D completion year (k), annual R&D expenses (RCt), annual cumulative success probability (PCt), annual input costs for sales (ICt), annual depreciation expenses (DAt), and residual value (RV) for a technology under research and development; Based on the evaluation data calculated by the above evaluation data calculation unit (120), the net present value of total sales from the first year to the expected product life cycle period (n) (a), the risk-adjusted net present value of research and development expenses from the first year to the R&D completion year (k) (b), the expenses required to generate sales from the R&D activities after the R&D completion year (k+1) to the expected product life cycle period (n) (c), and the residual value after the end of the product life cycle (PLC; Product life cycle) (d) are calculated, The technical value assessment department (130) calculates the technical value by subtracting the risk-adjusted net present value (b) and the costs required to generate sales after the R&D activities (c) from the net present value (a) of the total sales calculated above, and then adding the residual value (d); The above-mentioned technology value assessment unit (130) is characterized by calculating the risk-adjusted net present value (b) using the following formula 3, and is a technology value assessment device: [Math 3] In formula 3 above, t is the fiscal year, k is the year of completion of the research and development (R&D), r is the discount rate, RCt is the research and development cost incurred in year t, and PCt is the cumulative probability of success incurred in year t, calculated by multiplying the cumulative probability of success up to the previous R&D stage (PCp) by the probability of success of the R&D at the current stage (PSc) (PCt = PCp × PSc).

4. The above-mentioned technical value evaluation unit (130) is characterized in that it calculates the technical value using the following formula 1, as described in claim 3: [Math 4] t: Fiscal year (year) n: Product lifecycle forecast period St: Sales incurred in year t r: discount rate k: Year of completion of research and development (R&D) RCt: Research and development costs incurred in year t. PCt = PCp × PSC: Cumulative success rate occurring in year t PCp: Cumulative success rate up to previous R&D stages PSc: Current R&D stage research and development success rate ICt: Input costs for sales incurred in year t. DAt: Depreciation expense incurred in year t RV: Residual Value

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