Earthquake and volcanic activity prediction methods

Abstract

To solve the problem that an existing space-and-terrestrial electromagnetic earthquake prediction is not something that anyone can implement, but only a limited number of people can implement, and furthermore, it cannot be said that it has achieved sufficient results; in addition, with respect to volcanic activity, volcanic monitoring is performed by seismometers, inclinometers, air vibration meters, GNSS observation devices, monitoring cameras, electromagnetic observation, geothermal observation, and the like, but there is a problem in that an eruption is overlooked in prediction, so there is a need to establish an earthquake prediction method and a volcanic activity prediction method which can be implemented by anyone.SOLUTION: Provided are earthquake prediction and volcanic activity prediction by numerical values, which can be implemented by anyone, by an earthquake prediction method and a volcanic activity prediction method paying attention to space-and-terrestrial electromagnetic generation power other than that caused by sunlight in a photovoltaic power generation system.SELECTED DRAWING: None

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an earthquake prediction method and a volcanic activity prediction method that focus on power generated by sources other than sunlight in a solar power generation system. [Background technology]

[0002] Patent Document 1 and Patent Application No. 2021-204639 of the undersigned application are earthquake prediction methods using a solar power generation system, and the appearance of abnormally high power generation is considered to be a precursor to an earthquake. This method makes it possible to predict earthquakes, but there are four issues, and solving these issues will enable more accurate earthquake prediction. The first is that the standard for abnormally high power generation is a comparison with the solar cell capacity, not a comparison with the standard power generation by date and time on a sunny day at the location where the solar power generation system is installed. It is necessary to improve the accuracy of prediction by comparing with the standard power generation, which reflects the fact that the closer the solar irradiation angle to the solar cell module is to 90°, the greater the power generation, and that the lower the temperature of the surface of the solar cell module, the less the loss due to temperature rise and the greater the power generation. The second is that there is no description as to whether the appearance of abnormally high power generation is due to sunlight or other cosmic and terrestrial electromagnetic causes. The third is that there is no description that the appearance of abnormally high power generation is not only a precursor to earthquakes but also a precursor to volcanic activity. Fourth, there is no mention of the possibility that the sensitivity to precursors may differ depending on the location of the solar power generation system. The present invention focuses on these points and performs earthquake prediction and volcanic activity prediction from a new perspective.

[0003] Non-Patent Document 1 describes a method for detecting weak earth currents using power lines, and is a method for predicting earthquakes using space-geomagnetic phenomena. Power lines cover the entire country, making it possible to build an observation network, but this method is not accessible to everyone, and only power companies, research institutes, some researchers, and experts are able to use this method to predict earthquakes.

[0004] Non-Patent Document 2 describes the VAN method, a space-geoelectromagnetic earthquake prediction method that is said to have been successful in Greece. The VAN method identifies peculiar changes that appear in continuous observation records of earth currents and is useful for earthquake prediction, but it describes that it is not easy to distinguish between peculiar changes and a large number of noise signals, and that the limited measurement points where earthquake prediction is possible are a constraint on earthquake prediction, so it cannot be said that it has achieved sufficient results in earthquake prediction.

[0005] Non-patent document 3 is the website of the Japan Meteorological Agency, which describes how the agency monitors 50 volcanoes using seismometers, tiltmeters, air vibration meters, GNSS observation devices, surveillance cameras, etc. to detect precursors to eruptions, and also conducts electromagnetic and geothermal observations; however, at the time of the eruption of Mt. Ontake on September 27, 2014, the eruption alert level remained at 1, indicating that conventional observations may not be sufficient for predicting volcanic activity.

[0006] Non-Patent Document 4 is the website of the Geomagnetic Observatory of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and although it does not mention earthquakes, it states that when electric current flows in the ionosphere or magnetosphere, the geomagnetic field fluctuates and telluric currents are induced underground in a direction that counteracts the geomagnetic change. It also states that changes in telluric currents observed on the surface are greatly influenced by the local geology and underground structure of the observation area.

[0007] Non-Patent Document 5 states that electromagnetic waves are generated from rocks that experience micro-fractures just before an earthquake.

[0008] Non-Patent Document 6 states that when pressure is applied to the earth's crust, tiny cracks form and radon is released, which, when released into the air, decays radioactively and turns into lead ions, which then attract small particles of dust and dirt and grow larger. It has been observed that the concentration of positive ions in the atmosphere increases to more than five times the normal level before a large earthquake, and it is said to be the most effective earthquake prediction method at present.

[0009] Non-Patent Document 7 contains a description similar to Non-Patent Document 6, which states that ions are generated from cracks on the ground's surface. The cracks on the ground's surface are thought to be plate boundaries or faults. It is stated that, of the six regular measurement points, Kanazawa and Matsumoto, which are close to plate boundaries, reacted particularly well before the Tohoku Pacific Coast Earthquake, and it is presumed that there are points suitable for measurement.

[0010] Non-Patent Document 8 states that atmospheric ions are released from the ground as a precursor to an earthquake, and when these come into contact with electrical equipment, static electricity is generated.

[0011] From the above, the cause of the appearance of abnormally high power generation in a solar power generation system may be one of the following. The first is the possibility that electromagnetic waves generated from the ground before an earthquake directly affect the solar power generation system. The second is the possibility that electromagnetic waves generated from the ground before an earthquake or other phenomena affect the ionosphere or magnetosphere, resulting in the induction of earth currents, which in turn affect the solar power generation system. The third is the possibility that atmospheric ions emitted from the ground as a precursor to an earthquake affect the solar power generation system. The influence of influences from outside the dwelling on home appliances and the like also occurs in daily life, and the appearance of abnormally high power generation in a solar power generation system may be one of the above three examples, or may be a combination of causes. If the appearance of abnormally high power generation is due to space-terrestrial electromagnetic causes, Non-Patent Document 4 and Non-Patent Document 7 show that the sensitivity corresponding to the precursor may differ depending on the location of the solar power generation system, so it is necessary to select a location suitable for measurement. Volcanic activity is a crustal movement like earthquakes, and it is thought that precursor phenomena similar to earthquakes appear. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0012] [Patent Document 1] Patent application 2021-204639 [Non-patent literature]

[0013] [Non-Patent Document 1] Patent Publication No. 2010-249848 [Non-Patent Document 2] Fundamentals of the Greek earthquake prediction method using self-potential observation and its application to Japan March 1994 Research representative Yoshiteru Kono (from the National Institute of Informatics website) [Non-Patent Document 3] Japan Meteorological Agency website "Volcano Monitoring" [Non-Patent Document 4] Japan Meteorological Agency Geomagnetic Observatory website: "Basic knowledge of earth currents" and "Questions and answers about geomagnetism" [Non-Patent Document 5] "Earthquakes can be predicted!" Masashi Hayakawa, KK Bestsellers, p.85-88 [Non-Patent Document 6] Atmospheric Ion Earthquake Prediction Research Group Homepage Mechanism of atmospheric ions being generated before an earthquake [Non-Patent Document 7] Kochi University of Technology Professor Toshiyuki Kawaramura's website Atmospheric ion generation mechanism [Non-Patent Document 8] "150 Signs of Earthquakes" Takarajimasha, p.138~145 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0014] The problem that this invention aims to solve is to select a suitable place for measurement, install a photovoltaic power generation system as a measuring device, and enable short-term earthquake prediction and short-term volcanic activity prediction by a simple method using numerical values. By constructing an observation network, it is possible to predict the time, location, and scale of occurrence. If the scientific basis for the appearance of abnormally high power generation is clarified through future research, it will lead to the establishment of a method to measure precursor phenomena more accurately as numerical values, and it is expected that high-precision prediction will be realized. In both earthquakes and volcanic activity, prediction means clarifying the time, location, and scale of occurrence in advance, and forecast means that some of these are insufficient. A huge earthquake is an earthquake with a magnitude (hereinafter referred to as M) of 8.0 or more, a large earthquake is an earthquake with a magnitude of M7.0 or more but less than M8.0, a medium earthquake is an earthquake with a magnitude of M5.0 or more but less than M7.0, and a small earthquake is an earthquake with a magnitude of less than M5.0. In addition, large-scale volcanic activity refers to volcanic activity accompanied by explosive eruptions. [Means for solving the problem]

[0015] The maximum power generated by a solar power generation system is said to be 70% to 80% of the solar cell capacity, but home solar power generation systems (hereinafter referred to as home systems) are generating power that far exceeds this, and when power generation exceeds 90% of the solar cell capacity, there is a high probability of a magnitude 4.5 or greater earthquake occurring near Japan within two days, 70.0% in 2020 and 85.7% in 2021. This is as described in the undersigned patent application No. 2021-204639.

[0016] Regarding volcanic activity, abnormally high power generation has also been observed before volcanic activity intensifies. As a first example, abnormally high power generation continued from February 3, 2022, before the Aso eruption alert level was raised from level 2 to level 3 on February 24, 2022. As a second example, abnormally high power generation continued from July 12, 2022, before the explosive eruption of Sakurajima on July 24, 2022.

[0017] It is believed that a power generation rate of more than 90% of the solar cell capacity does not usually occur even if favorable conditions are met. Factors that affect the power generation include solar radiation intensity and the wavelength distribution of sunlight. If the abnormally high power generation rate cannot be explained by these factors, it is unlikely to be due to solar radiation.

[0018] Furthermore, if there is a phenomenon that indicates that the abnormally high power generation is not likely to be caused by sunlight, it will become even clearer that the abnormally high power generation is not caused by sunlight.

[0019] The maximum solar radiation intensity in Japan is 1kW / m 2 It is said that the maximum power generated is approximately proportional to the intensity of solar radiation. There have been cases where the maximum power generated by a home system with a 3.7kW solar cell capacity on a sunny day was 3.0kW, and the maximum power generated during the same time period on the following day, when the weather was similarly sunny, was 3.9kW. However, it is considered impossible for the intensity of solar radiation to increase by 30% the next day compared to the same time period on the previous day in weather that is considered to be almost the same.

[0020] Wavelength distribution affects the power generation, and it is said that the wavelength distribution differs depending on the altitude of the sun. However, it is not thought that there is a fluctuation in wavelength distribution that would cause a large change in the power generation during clear skies at the same time of the year.

[0021] There are many research institutions and researchers studying solar activity, but with the exception of solar flares, there have been no research reports within the scope of this survey indicating that there are significant fluctuations in the intensity or wavelength distribution of solar radiation at the same time of day.

[0022] Here are two examples of phenomena that show that abnormally high power generation is not caused by sunlight. First, the relative positions of the solar power generation system, the sun, the epicenter, or volcanic activity can be mentioned. In a home system with a solar cell capacity of 3.7 kW, an abnormally high power generation of 4.1 kW occurred around noon on the day before the M9.0 Tohoku Pacific Ocean Earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011. The epicenter was in the northeast direction of the house, but the sun was in the south direction, which are different directions, but the abnormally high power generation occurred, and it is unlikely to be caused by sunlight. An abnormally high power generation also occurred before the eruption of Mt. Ontake on September 27, 2014, but in this case too, the direction of the eruption and the direction of the sun are different when compared to the home.

[0023] Secondly, the actual amount of power generated is large compared to the standard amount of power generated. Solar power generation system manufacturers calculate and provide to system installers the standard annual amount of power generated at the installation site based on the solar cell capacity, installation direction, and installation angle. In the case of a home system, the annual amount of power generated is said to be 3,830 kWh, but the actual amount of power generated 11 years and 8 months after installation was approximately 55,000 kWh, which is approximately 4,700 kWh per year, exceeding the manufacturer's calculated value by more than 20%. The existence of a significant difference in the amount of power generated over a period of more than 10 years, rather than a short period of one or two years, indicates that there is a very high possibility that power generation due to sources other than solar power exists.

[0024] According to the mega solar data published on the website, there are mega solar power plants that generate abnormally high power like the home system, and after the occurrence of abnormally high power generation, there is a high probability of earthquakes or volcanic activity of a certain magnitude or greater occurring near Japan, which shows that the occurrence of abnormally high power generation is not due to a malfunction of the home system, but has also occurred in other solar power generation systems. Both the home system and this mega solar power plant are polycrystalline silicon types.

[0025] Therefore, the appearance of abnormally high power generation is believed to be due to something other than solar power. The ratio of excess power generation to standard power generation indicates the magnitude of the precursor to earthquakes or volcanic activity, and this ratio makes it possible to predict earthquakes or volcanic activity. However, it has not been confirmed whether this prediction method is effective for all types of solar cell modules. The solar cell module of the home system is polycrystalline silicon, and the appearance of abnormally high power generation in polycrystalline silicon can be said to be a precursor to earthquakes or volcanic activity, and since monocrystalline silicon is also silicon-based, it is likely that it can be used for prediction, but it has not been confirmed whether other non-silicon solar cell modules can be used for prediction.

[0026] Research institutes, researchers, specialists, and the general public should be aware of the abnormal power generation that is a sign of earthquake or volcanic activity, but this is not the case. The following three points are thought to be the reasons for this, and it is necessary to consider these points when deciding the installation location and specifications of a solar power generation system for prediction.

[0027] The first is the restriction on the power generation by the power conditioner. In a home system, the solar cell capacity is 3.7kW, while the rated output power of the power conditioner is 4.0kW (actual value 4.1kW), and it generates a maximum of 4.1kW. In order to maximize the effect on investment, it is assumed that in some home solar power generation systems, a power conditioner with a rated output power equivalent to or less than the solar cell capacity is installed. If the solar cell capacity is 3.7kW and the rated output power of the power conditioner is 3.0kW, it will only generate a maximum of 3.0kW, making it difficult to notice abnormal power generation.

[0028] Because the return on investment is also important for mega solar power plants, the rated output power of the power conditioner in many mega solar power plants is equal to or less than the capacity of the solar cells. Even if a pyranometer is installed, it is thought that abnormally high generated power is difficult to notice.

[0029] Second, in the case of home solar power generation systems, solar cell modules may be installed on two or three sides of a hipped roof. In this case, even if the solar cell capacity is the same, the maximum power generation will be smaller than in a one-sided installation, so it is thought that it will be difficult to notice abnormally high power generation.

[0030] Third, if the appearance of abnormally high power generation as a precursor to earthquakes or volcanic activity is due to space-geoelectromagnetic causes other than sunlight, the magnitude of the precursor may vary depending on the geology and underground structure of the location where the solar power generation system is installed. The house is located in a sand dune development area about 600m from a sandy beach, in an area where sand is often scattered. The Kego Fault, Umi Fault, and Nishiyama Fault are located within a 15km radius. It is also about 15km away from the central city area of ​​the area. These location conditions may make it a place where abnormal power generation as a precursor is likely to appear. If solar power generation systems installed on sandy soil have a high sensitivity to space-geoelectromagnetic phenomena as a precursor to earthquakes or volcanic activity, effective earthquake prediction will be possible by installing the measurement points of the solar power generation system on sandy beaches or near sandy beaches such as Ishikari Sand Dunes, Shonai Sand Dunes, Hamaoka Sand Dunes, Uchinada Sand Dunes, Tottori Sand Dunes, Niji no Matsubara, and Fukiagehama. If locations closer to faults have a higher sensitivity to precursors, then measurement points should be chosen where there is a fault nearby. Precursors may also differ depending on the geology and underground structure between the epicenter of the earthquake or volcano and the location where the solar power generation system is installed.

[0031] Nowadays, there are various noise sources, specifically trains, automobiles, and other facilities that can be noise sources. Since these may be partially responsible for power generation caused by factors other than sunlight, it is considered desirable to perform measurements in a place with as little noise as possible.

[0032] In view of the above, the installation location of the solar power generation system for predicting earthquake or volcanic activity must be a place with high sensitivity to space-geoelectromagnetic phenomena as a precursor, and preferably a place with little noise, but in addition, in order to improve the accuracy of earthquake size prediction and narrow down the epicenter, it is necessary to build an observation network, and in order to minimize the gaps in observation, it is necessary to set up measurement points widely in suitable locations on islands such as Rishiri Island, Rebun Island, Tobishima Island, Sado Island, Hegura Island, Oki Island, Izu Islands, Ogasawara Islands, Iki Island, Tsushima Island, Goto Islands, Amakusa Islands, Amami Islands, Nansei Islands, Minamidaito Island, Kitadaito Island, etc. Regarding prediction of volcanic activity, since 50 volcanoes are designated as volcanoes under constant observation, the solar power generation system will be installed in a place around these volcanoes where the sensitivity to space-geoelectromagnetic phenomena as a precursor is high and where volcanic ash does not affect the measurement.

[0033] Residential solar power generation systems are usually not equipped with a pyranometer, making it difficult to perform accurate analysis of the relationship between solar radiation intensity and generated power, but by visually checking the weather, it is possible to make a good prediction if the weather is fine. Also, in mega solar power plants where a pyranometer is installed and solar radiation intensity can be measured, more accurate predictions are possible.

[0034] There are various factors that affect the power generation in addition to the solar radiation intensity and wavelength distribution, but the most influential are the angle of sunlight irradiation to the solar cell module and the surface temperature of the solar cell module. The closer the irradiation angle is to 90°, the greater the power generation, and it is said that a 1°C increase in surface temperature reduces the power generation by about 0.4%.

[0035] Power generated from sources other than solar power does not appear alone when there is no solar radiation, but appears only when solar power is generated. In addition, when the solar radiation intensity fluctuates, power generated from sources other than solar power may appear in proportion to the power generated from solar power. For example, if the generated power is 4.0 kW and the normal solar power generation is 3.0 kW, the power generated from sources other than solar power is 1.0 kW. However, if the solar power generation decreases by 10% from 3.0 kW to 2.7 kW due to a change in the solar radiation intensity, the power generated from sources other than solar power may also decrease by 10% from 1.0 kW to 0.9 kW, and the total power generation may be 3.6 kW. If it becomes possible to measure the power generated from solar power and other sources separately, more accurate predictions will be possible.

[0036] Based on the above, highly accurate earthquake predictions can be made by installing a solar power generation system with a power conditioner with sufficient rated output power in a location that has high sensitivity to space-terrestrial electromagnetic phenomena that are precursors to earthquakes or volcanic activity and is less susceptible to noise, by installing a pyranometer in addition to the system to improve prediction accuracy, and by arranging measurement locations so that an observation network can be built. Effect of the Invention

[0037] If data on the power generated by a photovoltaic power generation system with a known solar cell capacity is available, anyone, even a non-expert, can easily and numerically predict, for each location of the photovoltaic power generation system, whether an earthquake of a certain magnitude or larger will occur in the near future near Japan, or whether volcanic activity of a certain magnitude or larger will occur. If data on solar radiation intensity is available, the accuracy of predictions will be even higher. In addition, by constructing an observation network, it will be possible to predict to some extent the epicenter and magnitude of an earthquake that will occur in the near future from the distribution and measurement values ​​of measurement points determined to be abnormal, in the case of earthquakes, and in the case of volcanic activity, it will be possible to predict which volcano activity is a precursor and the scale of the volcanic activity. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0038] The main conditions required for implementing the earthquake prediction method and volcanic activity prediction method described in claim 1 are as follows: The first condition is that claim 1 is mainly intended for a home solar power generation system, and it is not realistic to install a power conditioner with a rated output power that greatly exceeds the capacity of the solar cell, but in order to distinguish whether an earthquake is a precursor to a huge or large earthquake or a medium or small earthquake, and in order to distinguish whether an earthquake is a precursor to large-scale volcanic activity or increased volcanic activity, it is desirable for the rated output power of the power conditioner to be approximately 1.3 times or more the capacity of the solar cell.

[0039] The second condition is that the solar cell modules are installed facing south or close to south, in the same direction, and at the same tilt angle, which is the standard in Japan, about 30°. If this condition is met, large amounts of power will be generated regardless of the season, making it easy to tell if the power generation is abnormal, and because the solar cell modules are installed in the same direction and at the same angle, it is possible to prevent the mixing of power generation under different conditions. Although this is not realistic for home solar power generation systems, if it is possible to install a solar tracking solar power generation system, further improvements in prediction accuracy can be expected, and the same is true for solar power generation systems equipped with pyranometers.

[0040] The third condition is to install the photovoltaic power generation system in a place where the sensitivity to the space-terrestrial electromagnetic phenomenon as a precursor is high and where the influence of noise is small. In order to determine whether the area is highly sensitive, for example, a number of photovoltaic power generation systems with the same specifications and installation conditions are installed, and the places where large power generation occurs or where the frequency of occurrence of a certain level of power generation or more is high are selected as the photovoltaic power generation systems to be predicted. For example, a photovoltaic power generation system with a solar cell capacity of 5.0 kW, a power conditioner rated output power of 6.5 kW, and polycrystalline silicon is installed on the south-facing roof of a two-story gabled roof house with a four-inch slope in all parts of the country, and although it is necessary to take into account the difference in latitude and weather by region, and the distribution of earthquake centers and volcanic activity, the maximum power generation value and the frequency of occurrence of power generation of 5.0 kW or more in the same period are tallied, and if there is no significant difference in the sensitivity to the precursor, there is no restriction on the installation location of the photovoltaic power generation system for prediction. If there is a significant difference, it is said that measurement at a highly sensitive point is effective for prediction.

[0041] Claim 1 is a prediction based on a solar power generation system without a solar pyranometer, and is made by comparing the standard power generation caused by sunlight under good conditions with the actual power generation. Research institutes and solar power generation system manufacturers set standard power generation data per 1 kW of solar cell capacity by region, date, installation direction, and installation tilt angle, and a system is prepared that allows the calculation of standard power generation if the solar cell capacity is known. The data by date and time takes into account temperature and air mass. By providing this, the standard power generation and actual power generation are compared. Since it is considered that there are differences in characteristics depending on the solar power generation system, strictly speaking, it is necessary to set it for each product. In addition, the relationship between the excess power generation ratio, that is, the value of ((power generation - standard power generation) / standard power generation) x 100 and subsequent earthquakes occurring near Japan is analyzed, and an excess power generation ratio of, for example, 15.0% or more is considered to be an abnormal value and a precursor of an earthquake of M4.5 or more that will occur near Japan in the near future. Also, 25.0% or more is considered a significant abnormal value, and is a sign of a huge or large earthquake occurring in the vicinity of Japan in the near future. However, even a significant abnormal value may be a sign of a small earthquake whose epicenter is relatively close to the measurement location, and as this relates to claim 3, the construction of an observation network is necessary for accurate earthquake prediction. 15.0% or 25.0% is the first reference value in claim 1.

[0042] Volcanic activity occurs less frequently than earthquakes, so in order to set the first standard value, it is necessary to accumulate data over a longer period of time than for earthquakes. However, provisionally, an excess power generation ratio of 15.0% or more will be considered a sign of increased volcanic activity near Japan, and 25.0% or more will be considered a sign of large-scale volcanic activity near Japan, and revisions will be made as data is accumulated.

[0043] For example, in the Fukuoka region of Fukuoka Prefecture, at 12:00 on June 15th, with a solar panel capacity of 5.0 kW, and the standard power generation due to sunlight is 4.0 kW, if the weather is fine and suitable for measurement and the actual power generation is 4.8 kW, then the excess power generation ratio will be ((4.8 - 4.0) / 4.0) x 100 = 20.0%, and if the first standard value mentioned above is applied, then 20.0% ≧ 15.0%, which is a precursor to the occurrence of an earthquake of M4.5 or greater within the next two days near Japan, or a precursor to increased volcanic activity within the vicinity of Japan. Furthermore, if a power generation of 5.5 kW appears, then ((5.5 - 4.0) / 4.0) x 100 = 37.5%, and as 37.5% ≧ 25.0%, this is a precursor to a huge earthquake, a major earthquake, or large-scale volcanic activity.

[0044] These standard values ​​are the first standard values, which will be set and revised based on the accumulation of data relating to the past excess power generation ratio and the occurrence of earthquakes and volcanic activity.

[0045] The solar cell capacity of the home system is 3.7 kW, facing south-southeast, and tilted at 24.2°. Due to the latitude of the home, the angle of sunlight irradiating the solar cell module at meridian time is maximum at close to 90° in April and August, and minimum in December. Furthermore, the temperature, which affects the generated power, is usually highest in August and lowest in January. In the home system, the solar altitude is not suitable for power generation when the temperature is low and power generation efficiency is good, and tends to be suitable for power generation when the temperature is high and power generation efficiency is poor. To be precise, the standard power generation must be set by research institutes and solar power generation system manufacturers for each date and time, but let's assume that the maximum power generation on a clear day throughout the year is almost the same at around 3.0 kW, and this will be the standard power generation around meridian time for the home system.

[0046] Four examples of past earthquakes and power generation are listed below in order of the date of the earthquake, epicenter, magnitude of the earthquake, maximum power generation by the home system, and the excess power generation ratio. March 11, 2011 Off the Pacific coast of Tohoku region M9.0 Maximum 4.1kW 36.7% January 22, 2022 Miyazaki Prefecture offshore Hyuga-Nada M6.6 Maximum 4.0kW 33.3% June 21, 2022 M6.2 near Chichijima, Ogasawara Islands, maximum 3.6kW, 20.0% June 26, 2022 Kumamoto Prefecture Kumamoto Region M4.7 Maximum 3.9kW 30.0% In the Tohoku Pacific Ocean Earthquake, the actual value of the rated output power of the power conditioner of the home system was 4.1 kW, and the same power generation power was generated, and it is possible that the power generation power would have been even higher if there were no constraints on the power conditioner. When the excess power generation ratio exceeds 25.0%, it is an example of a possibility of a damaging earthquake such as a huge or major earthquake. The reason why the precursor of the M4.7 earthquake in the Kumamoto region in June 2022 is large compared to the scale of the earthquake is thought to be because the distance from the home to the epicenter is about 120 km, which is relatively close. In order to improve the accuracy of determining whether it is a precursor to a huge or major earthquake, it is necessary to obtain solar radiation intensity data and build an observation network.

[0047] It is often difficult to distinguish whether a precursor is an earthquake or volcanic activity by measuring the power generation at one location. As a general rule, precursors of volcanic activity tend to appear earlier and last longer. Two examples are given below. The first is when the Aso eruption alert level was raised from 2 to 3 on February 24, 2022. Precursors appeared on February 3 of the same year, with a maximum power generation of 4.0 kW and an excess power generation ratio of 33.3%. The second is when Sakurajima exploded on July 24, 2022. Precursors appeared on July 12 of the same year, with a maximum power generation of 3.9 kW and an excess power generation ratio of 30.0%. The standard power generation was calculated as 3.0 kW in both cases.

[0048] There are three problems with claim 1. First, since no actinometer is installed, the relationship between the intensity of solar radiation and the power generation cannot be grasped, and there is an issue with the accuracy of the prediction. This can be solved by the prediction using a solar power generation system equipped with an actinometer as described in claim 2. Second, since the system is mainly intended for home solar power generation systems and no observation network has been built, there is an issue with the accuracy of the prediction of the epicenter and scale in the case of earthquakes, and the relevant volcano and the scale of volcanic activity in the case of volcanic activity. This can be solved by the construction of an observation network as described in claim 3. Third, it is difficult to distinguish whether the appearance of an excess power generation ratio equal to or greater than the first reference value is a sign of an earthquake or volcanic activity. This can be solved, like the second problem, by the construction of an observation network as described in claim 3.

[0049] The above is the content of claim 1. Below, we will describe the content of claim 2, that is, a method for predicting earthquakes and volcanic activity using a solar power generation system equipped with an actinometer. This method uses the solar radiation intensity measured by the actinometer, and has improved prediction accuracy compared to claim 1.

[0050] In order for a solar power generation system to be suitable for prediction, in addition to the installation of a pyranometer, the rated output power of the power conditioner must be sufficient, it must be installed in a place with high sensitivity to space-terrestrial electromagnetic phenomena as precursors, and it must be possible to measure the generated power and solar radiation intensity at the same time. It is also desirable to install it in a place with little noise. Mega solar power plants are often designed to emphasize the effect on investment, that is, to maximize the profit from selling solar power generation, so the rated output power of the power conditioner is insufficient for prediction. For example, in a solar power generation system with a solar cell capacity of 1,000 kW, if a power conditioner with a rated output power of 800 kW is installed, it is considered that the generated power exceeding 800 kW rarely occurs due to various losses, and even if the generated power would be 1,200 kW if there were no constraints on the power conditioner, only 800 kW will be generated, and there is a risk of missing the precursors of huge earthquakes, major earthquakes, and large-scale volcanic activity. In the prediction according to claim 2, if there is a restriction on the power generated by the power conditioner, the measurement data may not be used for the prediction even during the time when the power is generated by the sun, so the prediction time period is shortened. Specifically, the rated output power of the power conditioner is preferably about 1.3 times or more the capacity of the solar cell, as in claim 1.

[0051] The implementation of claim 2 does not require a mega solar power plant. However, for highly accurate measurements and economical measurements accompanied by income from selling electricity, it is preferable to use a mega solar power plant.

[0052] In a solar power generation system, the generated power is said to be roughly proportional to the solar radiation intensity. The nominal maximum output of a solar cell module is 1.5 air mass and 1kW / m irradiance. 2 The values ​​are based on a module temperature of 25°C. For example, in a solar power generation system with a solar cell capacity of 1,000 kW, the generated power is 700 kW, and the solar radiation intensity is 0.8 kW / m 2 If so, the generated power is roughly proportional to the solar radiation intensity, so let's say that the solar radiation intensity is 1kW / m 2This translates to a generated power of 700 / 0.8 = 875 kW per hour. By comparing this with the standard generated power, it is possible to determine whether the solar power generation system is operating normally, and it can also be used to determine whether there are any signs of earthquakes or volcanic activity.

[0053] Research institutes and solar power generation system manufacturers are able to set standard power generation by region and by date and time, taking into account temperature and air mass. This standard power generation is compared with the actual power generation. For example, in the Fukuoka region, at 12:30 on February 10, corrections based on temperature and air mass are almost unnecessary, and the solar radiation intensity is 1kW / m 2 Assume that the standard power generation per kW of solar cell capacity at any one time is set to 0.8kW. For a solar cell capacity of 1,000kW, the standard power generation is 800kW. For a solar cell capacity of 1,000kW, if the measured values ​​at 12:30 on February 10th of a certain year are a power generation of 990kW and a solar radiation intensity of 0.9kW, then the standard power generation per kW of solar cell capacity at any one time is 0.8kW. 2 When converted to hourly power generation, the power generation is 990 / 0.9 = 1,100 kW, and the excess power generation ratio is ((1,100 - 800) / 800) x 100 = 37.5%, which is a significantly abnormal value.

[0054] As mentioned above, the excess power generation ratio is calculated as ((power generation - standard power generation) / standard power generation) x 100. As an example, a ratio of 15.0% or more is considered an abnormal value, and is a sign of an earthquake of magnitude 4.5 or more occurring in the near future near Japan, or increased volcanic activity. Additionally, a ratio of 25.0% or more is considered a sign of a huge earthquake, a major earthquake, or large-scale volcanic activity. 15.0% and 25.0% are the second standard values.

[0055] In the method of claim 2, the solar radiation intensity is 1kW / m compared with when no solar radiation meter is installed. 2 This has the advantage of improving prediction accuracy because the amount of power generated per unit is accurately calculated, but because measurements are taken in a single location, it is impossible to narrow down the epicenter or identify volcanoes that are becoming increasingly active, and there are also issues with the accuracy of predicting the scale of earthquakes and volcanic activity.

[0056] Claim 3 is to install multiple solar power generation systems equipped with pyranometers over a wide area to predict earthquake and volcanic activity. The installation of solar power generation systems with sufficient rated output power of the power conditioner in locations with high sensitivity to cosmic and terrestrial electromagnetic phenomena as precursors and locations with little noise is similar to claims 1 and 2. To predict volcanic activity, multiple solar power generation systems are to be installed in locations selected around 50 volcanoes that are constantly under observation where volcanic ash will not affect measurements.

[0057] The measurement results are displayed on a map on the display or on a paper map so that the measurement location and the excess power generation ratio can be seen. The measurement values ​​are displayed in different colors to make them easier to understand.

[0058] If there is a measurement point where an extremely significant abnormal value of 30.0% or more is found, the first step is to determine whether it is a precursor to an earthquake or volcanic activity. While this is often a precursor to an earthquake, if there is a point with a high excess power generation ratio near a volcano, it is considered possible that it is a precursor to volcanic activity, making it possible to identify the volcano in question.

[0059] If there is a measurement point where an extremely significant abnormal value of 30.0% or more is observed for the excess power generation ratio, the scale of the earthquake or volcanic activity is predicted based on the proportion of measurement points with an excess power generation ratio of 25.0% or more to the total number of measurement points. If the maximum excess power generation ratio is 30.0% or more and the number of measurement points with an excess power generation ratio of 25.0% or more accounts for 75.0% or more of the total number of measurement points, it is considered to be a precursor to a huge or large earthquake or large-scale volcanic activity. If the numerical precursor is large and spreads widely, it is highly likely to be a precursor to a huge or large earthquake or large-scale volcanic activity. 30.0% is the third standard value, 25.0% is the fourth standard value, and 75.0% is the fifth standard value. It is important to predict huge or large earthquakes or large-scale volcanic activity that are expected to cause damage, but even if this condition is not met, for example, if the number of measurement points with an excess power generation ratio of 25.0% or more is 50.0% or more of the total number of measurement points, it may be a sign of an earthquake or volcanic activity that will cause damage. Since a significantly high power generation was measured in a home system before the Tohoku Pacific Ocean Earthquake, which is more than 1,000 km from the home to the epicenter, and a significantly high power generation was measured in a home system before the eruption of Mt. Ontake, which is more than 700 km from the home, it is clear that precursors of huge or large earthquakes or large-scale volcanic activity can reach even places far from the epicenter or volcano, and the above values ​​were set. These standard values ​​need to be accumulated, organized, and operated based on observation data.

[0060] In claims 1 and 2, an excess power generation ratio of 25.0% or more is considered to be a precursor to a huge or major earthquake or large-scale volcanic activity, but in claim 3, it is set at 30.0% or more because it is considered that by constructing an observation network and setting up many measurement points, there is a high possibility that measurement points with a ratio of 30.0% or more will appear as a precursor to a huge or major earthquake or large-scale volcanic activity.

[0061] In both earthquakes and volcanic activity, the precursors are not necessarily greatest at the measurement point closest to the epicenter or volcano, but in the present invention, the measurement points are selected to be highly sensitive to space-geoelectromagnetic phenomena as precursors, so that the construction of an observation network makes it possible to identify the relevant volcano for volcanic activity, and for earthquakes, the area where the points with high values ​​of the excess power generation ratio are concentrated is considered to be close to the epicenter, making it possible to narrow down the epicenter to a certain extent. For plate-type mega-earthquakes and major earthquakes, locations where the occurrence is highly likely, such as the Hokkaido East Coast Earthquake and the Nankai Trough Earthquake, are assumed, so earthquake predictions with an accuracy close to that of earthquake predictions can be expected based on the values ​​and distribution of the excess power generation ratio obtained by constructing an observation network. Regarding the occurrence time, in the case of earthquakes, measurements made in a home system show that earthquakes often occur within two days of the appearance of precursors, but in the case of mega-earthquakes and major earthquakes, precursors may appear well beforehand. Although there are few examples of volcanoes, precursors tend to last longer than earthquakes. The present invention relates to a method for predicting earthquakes and volcanic activity, and as data is accumulated, the accuracy of information regarding timing, location, and scale can be improved, potentially elevating the level of prediction to forecast.

[0062] Regarding claims 2 and 3, by making the measurement data public, anyone can predict earthquake and volcanic activity according to their own standards. Since the prediction methods of claims 2 and 3 cannot be implemented in a home system, this invention describes the concept of prediction and shows that prediction is theoretically possible based on this concept. [Industrial Applicability]

[0063] It will be possible to develop a solar power generation system that issues an alarm when an abnormally high excess power generation ratio occurs, indicating that it may be a precursor to earthquakes or volcanic activity. It will also enable public information services on earthquake and volcanic activity predictions, and earthquake and volcanic activity prediction services by private weather information companies. If the scientific basis for the occurrence of abnormally high excess power generation ratios in solar power generation systems can be elucidated through collaboration between related research fields such as electrical and electronic engineering and space-terrestrial electromagnetism, it will be possible to develop highly accurate prediction equipment specialized in earthquake and volcanic activity prediction, and to provide even more accurate earthquake and volcanic activity prediction services.

Claims

1. An earthquake prediction method and a volcanic activity prediction method for measuring the generated power in a solar power generation system not equipped with a solar radiation meter, and for predicting that an earthquake or volcanic activity will occur if the generated power exceeds a standard generated power due to sunlight and the ratio of the excess generated power to the standard generated power is equal to or greater than a preset first reference value.

2. The solar power generation system is equipped with a solar radiation meter, and the generated power and solar radiation intensity are measured. ２ The method for predicting earthquakes and volcanic activity predicts that an earthquake or volcanic activity will occur when the power generation proportional to the value in the case of (a) exceeds the standard power generation power attributable to solar power, and when the ratio of the excess power generation to the standard power generation is equal to or greater than a second reference value set in advance.

3. An earthquake prediction method and a volcanic activity prediction method which estimate the occurrence of a huge earthquake, a major earthquake, or large-scale volcanic activity when a plurality of solar power generation systems each equipped with a pyranometer are installed over a wide area, there are measurement points where the ratio of excess power generation to standard power generation is equal to or greater than a preset third reference value, and the proportion of the number of measurement points where the number of measurement points where the number of measurement points is equal to or greater than a fourth reference value to the total number of measurement points is equal to or greater than a fifth reference value.