Anchor Determination Device, Anchor Determination Method, and Anchor Determination Program

Abstract

To provide an anchor determination device, an anchor determination method, and an anchor determination program that can efficiently determine an appropriate anchor value.SOLUTION: An anchor determination device 1 includes: a data acquisition unit 13 that acquires a tuple of a plurality of anchor value candidates and an answer value that includes a cognitive bias by a questionnaire respondent for each of the candidates; an evaluation value calculation unit 14 that calculates, on the basis of a representative value obtained by statistically processing the answer values; an evaluation value for each anchor value candidate; and an anchor determination unit 15 that selects and outputs an anchor value with a maximum or minimum evaluation value.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to an apparatus, a method, and a program for creating an attention - attracting message using an anchoring effect.

Background Art

[0002] Conventionally, the anchoring effect is known as a type of cognitive bias. The anchoring effect refers to a tendency that, in a situation where the amount of information is limited, when a person starts deliberation based on information such as a number given first, this information tends to influence subsequent decision - making.

[0003] For example, in Non - Patent Document 1, verification of the anchoring effect is carried out using news with incorrect numerical values. As a result of an experiment involving hundreds of citizens, it has been shown that even when the presented news is suspected and the false report is corrected, the awareness remains biased towards the inaccurate number in the news seen first.

[0004] Also, in Patent Document 1, when managing the process of a project in software development, in order to improve the accuracy of man - hour estimation, when there is a tendency to be distorted in the direction of decreasing price (underestimation tendency), a mechanism is proposed to calculate a reference value for inducing input in the upward direction, that is, in the direction of increasing price, so that the input proposed price becomes an appropriate value.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0005]

Patent Document 1

Non - Patent Documents

[0006]

Non - Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0007] However, the numerical values presented aiming at the anchoring effect are often determined by trial and error, and it has been difficult to judge which numerical value is the most effective.

[0008] An object of the present invention is to provide an anchor determination device, an anchor determination method, and an anchor determination program that can efficiently determine an appropriate anchor value.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0009] The anchor determination device according to the present invention includes a data acquisition unit that acquires a tuple of a plurality of anchor value candidates and response values including cognitive biases by questionnaire respondents for each of the candidates, and based on a representative value obtained by statistically processing the response values, an evaluation value calculation unit that calculates an evaluation value for each of the anchor value candidates, and an anchor determination unit that selects and outputs an anchor value for which the evaluation value is maximum or minimum.

[0010] The evaluation value calculation unit may calculate the representative value itself as the evaluation value.

[0011] The evaluation value calculation unit may calculate, as the evaluation value, a relative value of the representative value from the corresponding anchor value candidate.

[0012] The relative value may be a value corresponding to the difference between the representative value and the corresponding anchor value candidate.

[0013] The relative value may be a value corresponding to a ratio of a difference between the representative value and a candidate of the anchor value corresponding thereto with respect to the candidate of the anchor value.

[0014] The evaluation value calculation unit may calculate a plurality of types of evaluation values, and the anchor determination unit may output a range between a plurality of anchor values selected based on each of the plurality of types of evaluation values.

[0015] The anchor determination device may include a questionnaire creation unit that creates a questionnaire for each candidate of the anchor value, asking a correct answer after indicating the value of the candidate, and a questionnaire execution unit that presents the questionnaire to different respondent groups for each candidate of the anchor value and collects the tuples.

[0016] The anchor determination device may include a message creation unit that creates a message including the anchor value output by the anchor determination unit and presents it to the user at a predetermined timing.

[0017] The anchor determination method according to the present invention includes a data acquisition step of acquiring a tuple of a plurality of candidates of anchor values and answer values including cognitive biases by questionnaire respondents for each of the candidates, an evaluation value calculation step of calculating an evaluation value for each candidate of the anchor value based on a representative value obtained by statistically processing the answer values, and an anchor determination step of selecting and outputting an anchor value for which the evaluation value is maximum or minimum, which is executed by a computer.

[0018] The anchor determination program according to the present invention is for causing a computer to function as the anchor determination device.

Advantages of the Invention

[0019] According to the present invention, an appropriate anchor value can be efficiently determined.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0020]

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Mode for Carrying Out the Invention

[0021] Hereinafter, an example of an embodiment of the present invention will be described. The anchor determination method of this embodiment is applied to a system that presents a warning message for the purpose of promoting the implementation of security measures, for example, by using the anchoring effect. This message presentation system estimates and determines the optimal anchor value that contributes to the implementation of the countermeasure when using the anchoring effect in the intervention / persuasion message for prompting the user to take security measures, thereby efficiently creating a message with a high intervention effect.

[0022] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of presenting a message in this embodiment. Here, it is assumed that a warning message is presented as an add-on function of a tool that may encounter phishing fraud such as a web browser or a mailer. For example, as shown in the figure, by presenting an anchor value (50%) different from the actual value as the percentage of users who will suffer phishing fraud damage in their lifetime, the users who see it will have their consciousness biased towards a high value due to the anchoring effect.

[0023] FIG. 2 is a diagram exemplifying the flow of processing by the message presentation system in this embodiment. An anchor determination device that has received various types of information from an evaluator who wishes to perform anchoring evaluates the anchoring effect for a plurality of candidate anchor values, determines an appropriate anchor value, and presents it to the evaluator. The evaluator reflects the determined anchor value in the add-on function of the tool in order to output an appropriate message using a tool such as a web browser. Alternatively, the determined anchor value may be automatically reflected in the add-on function and a message may be created.

[0024] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the functional configuration of the anchor determination device 1 in the present embodiment. The anchor determination device 1 is an information processing device (computer) including, in addition to a control unit 10 and a storage unit 20, input / output devices for various data, communication devices, and the like.

[0025] The control unit 10 is a part that controls the entire anchor determination device 1, and by appropriately reading and executing various programs stored in the storage unit 20, it operates as each of the functional units described later and realizes each function in the present embodiment. The control unit 10 may be a CPU.

[0026] The storage unit 20 is a storage area for various programs for causing the hardware group to function as the anchor determination device 1 and various types of data, and may be a ROM, a RAM, a flash memory, a hard disk drive (HDD), or the like. Specifically, the storage unit 20 stores, in addition to a program (anchor determination program) for causing the control unit 10 to execute each function of the present embodiment, various databases and the like.

[0027] The control unit 10 includes a questionnaire creation unit 11, a questionnaire execution unit 12, a data acquisition unit 13, an evaluation value calculation unit 14, an anchor determination unit 15, and a message creation unit 16. Note that the questionnaire creation unit 11, the questionnaire execution unit 12, and the message creation unit 16 may be implemented by the hands of the evaluator as described above.

[0028] The questionnaire creation unit 11 creates a questionnaire (survey form) that asks for the correct value after showing the candidate value for each candidate of the anchor value. Before creating the questionnaire, first, the evaluator designates, for example, as follows, "time frame", "attack", "anchor attribute", and "anchor value" as elements included in the message. · Time frame: Lifetime (among others, "one year", etc.) · Attack: Phishing fraud (among others, "virus infection", etc.) · Anchor attribute: % (among others, "person", etc.) · Anchor value N: 1, 10, 20, 50, 80, 90, 99

[0029] Note that the anchor value N is a candidate for the value to be used in the message, and a plurality of values are preset by the evaluator. Based on the information designated by the evaluator, the questionnaire creation unit 11 creates questionnaires, for example, as follows, for the number of candidates of the anchor value. · Question 1: Do you think that the number of users who have suffered phishing fraud in their lifetime is more than 1%? Less? Please answer your estimated value. · Question 2: Do you think that the number of users who have suffered phishing fraud in their lifetime is more than 10%? Less? Please answer your estimated value. · Question 3: Do you think that the number of users who have suffered phishing fraud in their lifetime is more than 20%? Less? Please answer your estimated value. · Question 4: Do you think that the number of users who have suffered phishing fraud in their lifetime is more than 50%? Less? Please answer your estimated value. · Question 5: Do you think that the number of users who have suffered phishing fraud in their lifetime is more than 80%? Less? Please answer your estimated value. · Question 6: Do you think that the number of users who have suffered phishing fraud in their lifetime is more than 90%? Less? Please answer your estimated value. ·Question 7: Do you think that the number of users who have suffered from phishing fraud in their lifetime is more than 99%? Or less? Please answer with your estimated value.

[0030] Similarly, for example, when "one year", "virus infection", and "person" are specified, ·Question: Do you think that the number of users who have suffered from virus infection in one year is more than 100,000? Or less? Please answer with your estimated value. the questionnaire is created as follows.

[0031] The questionnaire implementation unit 12 presents the questionnaire created by the questionnaire creation unit 11 to different respondent groups for each candidate of the anchor value, and collects the answers. The number of respondent groups is prepared according to the number of candidates of the anchor value so that each group is not affected by other anchor values.

[0032] The data acquisition unit 13 acquires a tuple including a plurality of candidates of the anchor value and the response value including the cognitive bias by the questionnaire respondents for each candidate. As described above, the questionnaire creation unit 11 and the questionnaire implementation unit 12 are not essential. If the tuple is already obtained, this will be the input to the data acquisition unit 13.

[0033] The evaluation value calculation unit 14 calculates the evaluation value for each candidate of the anchor value based on the representative value obtained by statistically processing the response values acquired by the data acquisition unit 13. At this time, the evaluation value calculation unit 14 may calculate the representative value itself as the evaluation value, or may calculate the relative value between the representative value and the candidate of the corresponding anchor value as the evaluation value.

[0034] The relative value may be, for example, the difference between the representative value and the candidate of the corresponding anchor value, or a value corresponding to the difference. Alternatively, the relative value may be the ratio of the difference between the representative value and the candidate of the corresponding anchor value to the candidate of the anchor value, or a value corresponding to the ratio.

[0035] Specifically, the evaluation value calculation unit 14 performs the following calculations using the tuples obtained by the data acquisition unit 13. Effect value X N : The representative value (average value, median value, mode) of multiple answers to a question including the anchor value N. This evaluation value represents the absolute value of the cognitive bias of the respondent, and the larger X N is, the higher the awareness of damage of the respondent.

[0036] Effect efficiency Y N : X N is a relative value indicating the distance from the anchor value. For example, Y N = X N - N is calculated. The higher this value, the higher the estimate for N, indicating the increase value of the awareness of damage of the respondent. Also, for example, Y N = (X N - N) / N may be used to represent the increase rate of the awareness of damage of the respondent.

[0037] The anchor determination unit 15 selects and outputs the anchor value for which the evaluation value (X N or Y N ) calculated by the evaluation value calculation unit 14 is the maximum or minimum, that is, the anchor value with a high anchoring effect. Here, the evaluation value calculation unit 14 calculates multiple types of evaluation values, and the anchor determination unit 15 may output the range between multiple anchor values selected based on each of the multiple types of evaluation values, or a representative value (for example, median value, weighted average value, etc.) within the range.

[0038] FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating the results of calculating the effect value X N and the effect efficiency Y N for each candidate of the anchor value in this embodiment. In this example, the effect value X N and the effect efficiency Y N calculated for candidates 1, 10, 20, 50, 80, 90, 99 of the anchor value are shown in a line graph.

[0039] Based on the characteristics of this graph, the anchor determination unit 15 determines an anchor value with a high anchoring effect. For example, the value of N (=80) when X N is the maximum, the value of N (=20) when Y N is the maximum, either a value between these (20 - 80), or a plurality of them are selected.

[0040] The message creation unit 16 creates a message including the anchor value output by the anchor determination unit 15 and presents it to the user at a predetermined timing. For example, the evaluator reflects the message on the add - on function of the web browser or the like based on the result output by the anchor determination unit 15.

[0041] Note that the output of the message is preferably performed at an appropriate timing so that the user is not habituated. For example, it follows an appropriate logic such as being displayed when accessing a URL not listed in the whitelist.

[0042] According to this embodiment, the anchor determination device 1 obtains the user's response to a questionnaire including an anchor value that asks about the recognition of a certain attack damage occurrence situation, particularly in a scenario that promotes security measures. At this time, by showing different anchor values to different user groups, differences in the self - recognition responses of the damage occurrence situation between groups can be obtained. Therefore, the anchor determination device 1 can efficiently determine an appropriate anchor value expected to increase the recognition of damage occurrence by analyzing the absolute value of the numerical value recognized for the damage occurrence situation and / or the deviation value (relative value) from the anchor value, without using a trial - and - error method. By using this anchor value as a persuasive message presented in a system where an attack damage is expected, it is possible to call attention to security measures with a high intervention effect.

[0043] Here, the absolute value of the numerical value recognized for the damage occurrence situation may be the representative value of the response itself, and the anchor determination device 1 can easily calculate the anchor value with the largest absolute value. In addition, the anchor determination device 1 can also determine an appropriate anchor value through easy calculation even by using the difference (increase value) or ratio (increase rate) as relative values. Furthermore, the anchor determination device 1 may output an appropriate range of anchor values, or a representative value thereof, etc., by using a plurality of evaluation methods in combination, and thereby an improvement in reliability can be expected.

[0044] In normal anchoring, since a definite expression such as "10% of users will suffer from phishing fraud in their lifetime" is used, the anchor value should be the true value. If a dummy value is used as the anchor value, the reliability of the warning itself may decrease. On the other hand, in the case of the question-form message of the present embodiment, since the anchor value is presented for the user to consider, it is not necessary to use the true value, and the same concern does not occur.

[0045] By creating and implementing a questionnaire based on the input parameters, the anchor determination device 1 reduces the processing load and errors of manual data collection. At this time, for example, as an add-on function of the browser, the questionnaire may be implemented at a predetermined timing and the data may be transmitted to the management server (anchor determination device 1). In addition, the anchor determination device 1 may automatically create the message to be presented to the user, thereby improving the efficiency of the system.

[0046] According to the above-described embodiment, for example, since it is possible to promote the implementation of security measures by users, it is possible to contribute to Goal 9 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) led by the United Nations, which is to "build resilient infrastructure, promote sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation".

[0047] As described above, the embodiments of the present invention have been described. However, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments. Also, the effects described in the above-described embodiments are merely an enumeration of the most preferable effects resulting from the present invention, and the effects of the present invention are not limited to those described in the embodiments.

[0048] In the foregoing embodiment, in the message for the purpose of raising awareness to promote the implementation of security measures, the anchoring effect was used for the damage occurrence situation (damage occurrence probability, number of cases, etc.), but the application target is not limited to this. For example, in a website for shopping or hotel reservation, etc., in the message for enhancing the effect of recommendations such as "〇 people (△% of people) are viewing", by outputting the same message as in this embodiment, an efficient improvement in the anchoring effect can be expected.

[0049] Also, in the foregoing embodiment, the anchoring effect to a value higher than the anchor value was exemplified, but the anchoring effect to a lower value can be similarly expected depending on the application target. In this case, the lower the foregoing effect value, the greater the negative value of the effect efficiency, and the higher the anchoring effect. Therefore, the anchor determination unit 15 selects the anchor value at which the evaluation value becomes the minimum.

[0050] The anchor determination method by the anchor determination device 1 is realized by software. When realized by software, the program constituting this software is installed in an information processing device (computer). Further, these programs may be recorded on a removable medium such as a CD-ROM and distributed to users, or may be distributed by being downloaded to the user's computer via a network. Furthermore, these programs may be provided to the user's computer as a web service via a network without being downloaded.

Explanation of Signs

[0051] 1 Anchor determination device 10 Control unit 11 Questionnaire creation unit 12 Questionnaire implementation unit 13 Data acquisition unit 14 Evaluation value calculation unit 15 Anchor determination unit 16 Message creation unit 20 Storage unit

Claims

1. A data acquisition unit that acquires a tuple of a plurality of anchor value candidates and response values including cognitive biases by questionnaire respondents for each of the candidates; An evaluation value calculation unit that calculates an evaluation value for each of the anchor value candidates based on a representative value obtained by statistically processing the response values; An anchor determination device comprising: an anchor determination unit that selects and outputs an anchor value for which the evaluation value is maximum or minimum.

2. The anchor determination device according to claim 1, wherein the evaluation value calculation unit calculates the representative value itself as the evaluation value.

3. The anchor determination device according to claim 1, wherein the evaluation value calculation unit calculates, as the evaluation value, a relative value of the representative value from the corresponding anchor value candidate.

4. The anchor determination device according to claim 3, wherein the relative value is a value corresponding to the difference between the representative value and the corresponding anchor value candidate.

5. The anchor determination device according to claim 4, wherein the relative value is a value corresponding to the ratio of the difference between the representative value and the corresponding anchor value candidate to the anchor value candidate.

6. The evaluation value calculation unit calculates a plurality of types of evaluation values, The anchor determination device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the anchor determination unit outputs a range between a plurality of anchor values selected based on each of the plurality of types of evaluation values.

7. A questionnaire creation unit that creates a questionnaire for each of the anchor value candidates, asking a correct answer after indicating the value of the candidate; The anchor determination device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, further comprising: a questionnaire execution unit that presents the questionnaire to different respondent groups for each of the anchor value candidates and collects the tuple.

8. The anchor determination device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, further comprising: a message creation unit that creates a message including the anchor value output by the anchor determination unit and presents the message to the user at a predetermined timing.

9. A data acquisition step of acquiring a tuple of a plurality of anchor value candidates and response values including cognitive biases by questionnaire respondents for each of the candidates; An evaluation value calculation step of calculating an evaluation value for each of the anchor value candidates based on a representative value obtained by statistically processing the response values; An anchor determination method in which a computer executes an anchor determination step of selecting and outputting an anchor value for which the evaluation value is maximum or minimum.

10. An anchor determination program for causing a computer to function as the anchor determination device according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

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