Ship system, display device, and ship program

Abstract

To provide a ship system, a display device, and a ship program capable of predicting a ship service life.SOLUTION: An information acquisition unit 11 can acquire a reference value capable of evaluating an environmental conservation on the basis of a ranking. A ship system 100 comprises an actual value prediction unit 12 to predict the actual value to an index on the basis of past achievements. Therefore, the actual value prediction unit 12 can predict how the actual value to the index transits in future. The ship system 100 comprises a service life prediction unit 13 to predict the service life of a ship 150 on the basis of the reference value and the actual value prediction result obtained by the actual value prediction unit 12. Therefore, the service life prediction unit 13 can predict the service life of the ship 150 by comparing the actual value prediction result based on the past achievements with a ranking reference value.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a ship system, a display device, and a ship program. [Background technology]

[0002] A conventionally known ship system is described in Patent Document 1. This ship system predicts the fuel efficiency of a ship based on past fuel consumption records. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2019-10984 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] Indicators that rank ships based on their quantitative performance for environmental conservation purposes are sometimes applied. For example, the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) is sometimes used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This rule rates ships based on their measured CO2 emissions, determining their merits and inferiority. Ships with poor CO2 emissions are required to submit improvement plans (such as operational improvements, modifications, or scrapping) for their ships. While the CII is expected to influence investment decisions regarding ship improvement plans (such as modifications and scrapping), it is difficult to understand the ship's lifespan, which serves as the basis for the improvement plan, making it difficult to make future investment decisions regarding the ship. The "lifespan" here refers to the period that serves as the basis for the ship's improvement plan—in other words, the period at which the ship loses legal, social, and economic value due to stricter environmental performance requirements.

[0005] Therefore, an object of the present invention is to provide a ship system, a display device, and a ship program that can predict the lifespan of a ship. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] The ship system of the present invention comprises an information acquisition unit that acquires a reference value for ranking an index based on numerical performance for environmental conservation, an actual performance value prediction unit that predicts an actual performance value for the index based on past performance, and a life prediction unit that predicts the life of the ship based on the reference value and the actual performance value prediction result by the actual performance value prediction unit.

[0007] The ship system includes an information acquisition unit that acquires a reference value for ranking an index based on numerical performance for environmental conservation. This allows the information acquisition unit to acquire a reference value that can be used to perform a ranking-based evaluation of environmental conservation. The ship system also includes an actual performance value prediction unit that predicts an actual performance value for the index based on past performance. This allows the actual performance value prediction unit to predict how the actual performance value for the index will change in the future. The ship system also includes a life expectancy prediction unit that predicts the life expectancy of the ship based on the reference value and the actual performance value prediction result by the actual performance value prediction unit. Therefore, the life expectancy prediction unit can predict the life expectancy of the ship by comparing the actual performance value prediction result based on past performance with the ranking reference value.

[0008] The information acquisition unit may acquire a first graph showing temporal changes in the reference value corresponding to the rank information, and acquire a second graph showing temporal changes in the actual value prediction result predicted by the actual value prediction unit, and the life prediction unit may predict the life based on the intersection of the first graph and the second graph. With this configuration, the life prediction unit can predict the life of the ship in a visually easy-to-understand manner using two graphs.

[0009] The vessel system may further include a proposal unit that proposes a method for extending the vessel's lifespan based on the lifespan prediction result of the lifespan prediction unit. In this case, the operator can extend the vessel's lifespan based on the lifespan prediction result.

[0010] The display device of the present invention displays a first graph showing the change over time in ranked reference values ​​for an indicator based on numerical performance for environmental conservation, a second graph showing the change over time in the results of predicted actual values ​​for the indicator based on past performance, and a predicted lifespan of a ship based on the intersection of the first graph and the second graph.

[0011] The display device can display the predicted results of the ship's lifespan in a visually easy-to-understand manner using two graphs.

[0012] The ship program of the present invention includes an information acquisition step for acquiring ranked reference values ​​for indicators based on numerical performance for environmental conservation, an actual performance value prediction step for predicting actual performance values ​​for the indicators based on past performance, and a lifespan prediction step for predicting the lifespan of the ship based on the rank information of the indicators and the actual performance value prediction results from the actual performance value prediction step.

[0013] According to the ship program of the present invention, it is possible to obtain the same functions and effects as the ship system described above. [Effects of the Invention]

[0014] According to the present invention, it is possible to provide a ship system, a display device, and a ship program that are capable of predicting the lifespan of a ship. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0015] [Figure 1] 1 is a block diagram illustrating a ship system according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 2] 1 is a schematic diagram showing a ship sailing; [Figure 3]FIG. 10 is a conceptual diagram for explaining the ranking of CII. [Figure 4] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing the display contents of a display device. [Figure 5] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing the display contents of a display device. [Figure 6] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing the display contents of a display device. [Figure 7] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing the display contents of a display device. [Figure 8] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing the display contents of a display device. [Figure 9] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing the display contents of a display device. [Figure 10] 4 is a flowchart showing processing steps of the ship system according to the embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0016] Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. In the following description, the same or corresponding parts will be designated by the same reference numerals, and duplicated explanations will be omitted.

[0017] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a ship system 100 according to an embodiment of the present invention. The ship system 100 is a system installed on a ship 150 (see FIG. 2) and predicts the lifespan of the ship 150. However, some or all of the ship system 100 does not necessarily have to be installed on board the ship, and may be installed on land. For example, a minimum amount of data may be transmitted from the ship to land, and calculations may be performed on land. Here, the ship system 100 predicts the lifespan of the ship 150 using benchmark values ​​ranked against indicators based on numerical performance for environmental conservation. As such an indicator, an indicator related to regulations called the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is adopted.

[0018] The CII index and ranking will be explained with reference to Figure 3. First, a CII calculation value is calculated for each ship based on the CII Index Guidelines. A calculation method is set for each type of ship. For example, for bulk carriers, tankers, container ships, gas carriers, LNG carriers, general cargo ships, reefer carriers, and combined vessels, the CII value is calculated by "CO2 emissions / (DWT x voyage distance)". DWT indicates the maximum summer load draft, and the value in the "Supplement" of the IEE certificate is used. For cruise ships, car carriers, or RO-PAX ferries, the CII value is calculated by "CO2 emissions / (gross tonnage x voyage distance)". Next, the CII reference line (average CII value) is calculated. The CII reference line is calculated by the "CII ref =a·Capacity -c " The coefficients a and c are determined according to the type of ship. "Capacity" is the value used in the DWT portion of the CII calculation formula mentioned above.

[0019] Next, the CII standard value is calculated. The CII standard value is calculated as follows: CII standard value = ((100-Z) / 100) x CII ref "Z" indicates the reduction rate (%) from the CII reference line for each ship type. The reduction rate (Z%) will be applied from 2023, starting from 5%, and is expected to increase by 2% each year until 2026, and will continue to increase thereafter.

[0020] As shown in Figure 3, the CII reference value is determined by the reduction rate (Z%) from the CII reference line. Rankings A to E are determined based on this CII reference value. Specifically, thresholds d1 to d4 for each rank are set for the CII reference value, and ships are divided into ranks A to E based on the thresholds d1 to d4. These CII reference values ​​and thresholds d1 to d4 for each rank are set according to the type of ship. By calculating the CII calculation value for the ship 150 to be evaluated and comparing the CII calculation value with the CII reference value and thresholds d1 to d4, it is possible to determine the rank information for the ship 150 to be evaluated.

[0021] The configuration of the ship system 100 will be described. The ship system 100 is installed, for example, on a ship. However, some or all of the ship system 100 does not necessarily have to be installed on the ship, and may be installed on land. As shown in FIG. 1 , the ship system 100 includes an input device 2, a display device 3, and a computing device 10.

[0022] The input device 2 is a user interface for a user to input various information to the arithmetic device 10. The input device 2 is composed of input devices such as a keyboard, a touch panel, a mouse, and a microphone. The display device 3 is a user interface for displaying various information to the user based on signals from the arithmetic device 10. The display device 3 is composed of an output device such as a monitor.

[0023] The arithmetic device 10 is a device that performs various calculations for route evaluation. The arithmetic device 10 includes a processor, a memory, a storage, and a communication interface, and is configured as a general computer. The processor is a computing device such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit). The memory is a storage medium such as a ROM (Read Only Memory) or a RAM (Random Access Memory). The storage is a storage medium such as an HDD (Hard Disk Drive). The communication interface is a communication device that realizes data communication. The processor controls the memory, storage, and communication interface, and realizes the functions of the arithmetic device 10, which will be described later. The arithmetic device 10 realizes various functions, for example, by loading a program stored in the ROM into the RAM and executing the program loaded into the RAM with the CPU. The arithmetic device 10 may be composed of multiple computers. The arithmetic device 10 includes an information acquisition unit 11, a performance value prediction unit 12, a life prediction unit 13, a proposal unit 14, and a memory unit 16.

[0024] The information acquisition unit 11 acquires a reference value for ranking an index (the above-mentioned CII) based on a numerical performance for environmental conservation. The information acquisition unit 11 acquires a CII reference value and thresholds d1 to d4 based on the vessel type of the vessel 150. The vessel type of the vessel 150 may be acquired from the input information of the input device 2 or may be acquired from the storage unit 16.

[0025] As shown in Figures 4 to 7, the information acquisition unit 11 acquires a first graph G1 based on the change over time in the reference value. Figures 4 to 7 are diagrams showing how the lifespan of the vessel 150 is predicted, and are diagrams showing the contents displayed on the display device 3. The vertical axis of Figures 4 to 7 represents the fuel consumption index (the aforementioned CII), and the horizontal axis represents time (year). As mentioned above, the reduction rate (Z%) is added each year, so the first graph G1 decreases as time passes.

[0026] The actual value prediction unit 12 predicts actual values ​​for the indexes based on past performance. The actual value prediction unit 12 may acquire actual values ​​for the CII indexes based on past operations of the ship 150 from input information from the input device 2, or may acquire them from the memory unit 16. The past actual values ​​are CII calculated values ​​calculated based on one year's worth of performance in a specified past year. The actual value prediction unit 12 plots actual values ​​RV for the most recent past few years, as shown in Figures 4 to 7.

[0027] The performance value prediction unit 12 predicts future performance values ​​for the CII indicators based on the plotted past performance values ​​RV. Specifically, the performance value prediction unit 12 obtains a second graph G2 based on temporal changes in the performance value prediction results. The performance value prediction unit 12 may set an approximation line for the plotted past performance values ​​RV and use the approximation line as the second graph G2. The method for setting such an approximation line is not particularly limited, and a known method such as linear interpolation may be used.

[0028] The lifespan prediction unit 13 predicts the lifespan of the ship 150 based on the reference values ​​for the CII indicators and the results of the actual value prediction by the actual value prediction unit 12. Note that the lifespan here refers to the period that serves as the basis for ship improvement plans, in other words, the period when the ship loses its legal, social, and economic value due to strengthened requirements for environmental performance.

[0029] Specifically, as shown in FIG. 4, the lifespan prediction unit 13 predicts the lifespan based on the intersection point CP1 between the first graph G1 and the second graph G2. The lifespan prediction unit 13 acquires the value (year) on the horizontal axis at the intersection point CP1 as the lifespan of the vessel 150. Note that FIG. 4 shows a D-rank graph G1D (a graph showing the boundary between D-rank and E-rank) as the first graph G1. FIG. 5 shows a C-rank graph G1C, FIG. 6 shows a B-rank graph G1B, and FIG. 7 shows an A-rank graph G1A. If the A-rank graph G1A in FIG. 7, which is a rank higher than the CII standard value, is used as the first graph G1, the first graph G1 will be a graph of lower values ​​than that shown in FIG. 4. Therefore, the intersection point CP1 between the first graph G1 and the second graph G2 will shift to the negative side of the horizontal axis, and the lifespan of the vessel 150 will be shortened. This means that if the lifespan is predicted based on a high rank, the lifespan will be shorter.

[0030] The shipowner may use the A-rank graph G1A as the first graph G1, or may use the B-rank graph G1B or the C-rank graph G1C. By using the B-rank graph G1B or the C-rank graph G1C, the ship's lifespan will be longer, so it is possible to visualize a lifespan prediction that suits the shipowner's needs. In addition, the A-rank display screen can be switched to the B-rank display screen, and the A-rank display screen can be switched to the C-rank display screen, so the shipowner can more easily understand when to invest in the ship.

[0031] 4 to 7 are displayed on the display device 3. That is, the display device 3 displays the first graph G1, the past performance value RV, the second graph G2, and the intersection point CP1 on the screen.

[0032] The proposal unit 14 proposes a method for extending the lifespan of the vessel 150 based on the lifespan prediction result of the lifespan prediction unit 13. For example, the proposal unit 14 proposes changing the fuel, reducing the speed of the vessel 150, and changing the sails of the vessel 150 as methods for extending the lifespan of the vessel 150. The proposal content of the proposal unit 14 is displayed on the display device 3.

[0033] As shown in Figures 8 and 9, when proposing a fuel change, the proposal unit 14 acquires prediction lines G3 and G4 that indicate temporal changes in the actual values ​​for the CII index of the changed fuel. The prediction line G3 shows the prediction result when the fuel is LNG. The prediction line G4 shows the prediction result when the fuel is ammonia. The proposal unit 14 predicts the intersection CP2 between the prediction line G3 and the first graph G1 as the lifespan of the ship 150 when the fuel is changed to LNG. The proposal unit 14 predicts the intersection CP3 between the prediction line G4 and the first graph G1 as the lifespan of the ship 150 when the fuel is changed to ammonia. The display device 3 may display the prediction lines G3 and G4 and the intersections CP2 and CP3. Note that Figures 8 and 9 show the intersections CP2 and CP3 when the D-rank graph G1D is used as the first graph G1, but the rank may be changed.

[0034] When proposing a reduction in speed, the proposal unit 14 obtains a prediction line G5 that indicates the change over time in the actual value for the CII index after the reduction. The prediction line G5 indicates the prediction result when the speed of the ship 150 is reduced by 5%. The proposal unit 14 predicts that the intersection point CP4 between the prediction line G5 and the first graph G1 is the lifespan of the ship 150 when the fuel is changed to LNG. The display device 3 may display the prediction line G4 and the intersection point CP4. Note that although FIGS. 8 and 9 show the intersection point CP4 when the D-rank graph G1D is used as the first graph G1, the rank may be changed.

[0035] This allows shipowners to more visually consider the timing and specific content of investments. Note that in Figure 8, the forecast line is calculated from five years' worth of actual results, but in Figure 9, the forecast line is calculated from three years' worth of actual results. Since CO2 emissions hardly change until the third year, the slope of the forecast line in Figure 9 is smaller than in Figure 8. In Figures 4 to 7, the forecast line is calculated from three years' worth of actual results, but the forecast line can also be calculated from five years' worth of actual results. Here, the number of years' worth of data to use can be determined arbitrarily.

[0036] The proposal unit 14 may always display the display contents on the display device 3, or may display them when the shipowner manually desires to display the display device 3. However, when the display device 3 is manually displayed (proposals by the proposal unit 14 are normally stopped), if the CII has deteriorated by a predetermined amount compared to last year's CII performance, the proposal unit 14 may be automatically displayed on the display device 3. This allows the shipowner to avoid missing the investment opportunity, even if he or she forgets to check to extend the life of the ship 150, as the proposal unit 14 is automatically displayed on the display device 3.

[0037] The memory unit 16 stores information for performing various processes in the ship system 100. For example, the memory unit 16 may store CII reference values ​​and threshold values ​​corresponding to each ship type. The memory unit 16 also stores a ship program P that predicts the lifespan of the ship 150.

[0038] Next, the ship system and ship program P according to this embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 10. The processing shown in FIG. 10 is implemented by causing a computer to execute the ship program P. FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing the processing of the ship system 100 according to this embodiment. As shown in FIG. 10, the information acquisition unit 11 acquires a reference value for ranking the CII index (step S10: information acquisition step). Next, the performance value prediction unit 12 predicts the performance value for the CII index based on past performance (step S20: performance value prediction unit).

[0039] Next, the life prediction unit 13 predicts the life of the ship 150 based on the reference value acquired in step S10 and the actual value prediction result in step S20 (step S30). Next, the proposal unit 14 proposes a method for extending the life of the ship 150 based on the life prediction result in step S30 (step S40). With this, the processing shown in FIG. 10 is completed.

[0040] Next, the functions and effects of the ship system 100, the display device 3, and the ship program P according to this embodiment will be described.

[0041] The ship system 100 of this embodiment includes an information acquisition unit 11 that acquires a reference value for ranking an index based on numerical performance for environmental conservation, an actual value prediction unit 12 that predicts an actual value for the index based on past performance, and a life prediction unit 13 that predicts the life of the ship 150 based on the reference value and the actual value prediction result by the actual value prediction unit 12.

[0042] The ship system 100 includes an information acquisition unit 11 that acquires a reference value for ranking an index based on a numerical performance for environmental conservation. This allows the information acquisition unit 11 to acquire a reference value that can be used to perform a ranking-based evaluation of environmental conservation. The ship system 100 also includes an actual performance value prediction unit 12 that predicts an actual performance value for the index based on past performance. This allows the actual performance value prediction unit 12 to predict how the actual performance value for the index will change in the future. The ship system 100 also includes a life expectancy prediction unit 13 that predicts the life expectancy of the ship 150 based on the reference value and the actual performance value prediction result by the actual performance value prediction unit 12. Therefore, the life expectancy prediction unit 13 can predict the life expectancy of the ship 150 by comparing the actual performance value prediction result based on past performance with the ranking reference value.

[0043] The information acquisition unit 11 may acquire a first graph G1 showing temporal changes in the reference value in response to the rank information, and may acquire a second graph G2 showing temporal changes in the actual value prediction result predicted by the actual value prediction unit 12, and the life prediction unit 13 may predict the life based on the intersection of the first graph G1 and the second graph G2. With this configuration, the life prediction unit 13 can predict the life of the ship 150 in a visually easy-to-understand manner using two graphs.

[0044] The vessel system 100 may further include a proposal unit 14 that proposes a method for extending the lifespan of the vessel 150 based on the lifespan prediction result of the lifespan prediction unit 13. In this case, the operator can extend the lifespan of the vessel 150 based on the lifespan prediction result.

[0045] The display device 3 of this embodiment displays a first graph G1 showing the change over time in the ranking criteria for an index based on numerical performance for environmental conservation, a second graph G2 showing the change over time in the results of performance value predictions made for the index based on past performance, and the predicted lifespan of the ship 150 based on the intersection of the first graph G1 and the second graph G2.

[0046] The display device 3 can display the predicted results of the lifespan of the vessel 150 in a visually easy-to-understand manner using two graphs.

[0047] The ship program P of this embodiment includes an information acquisition step S10 that acquires a standard value for ranking an index based on numerical performance for environmental conservation, an actual performance value prediction step S20 that predicts an actual performance value for the index based on past performance, and a lifespan prediction step S30 that predicts the lifespan of the ship 150 based on the rank information of the index and the actual performance value prediction result from the actual performance value prediction step S20.

[0048] According to the ship program P according to this embodiment, the same actions and effects as those of the ship system 100 described above can be obtained.

[0049] The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments.

[0050] For example, the graph shown in Fig. 4 is merely an example and may be changed as appropriate. Furthermore, the display device 3 may display all of the contents of Fig. 4, or may display only part of the information. [Explanation of symbols]

[0051] 11...information acquisition unit, 12...actual value prediction unit, 13...life prediction unit, 14...proposal unit, 100...ship system, P...ship program.

Claims

1. an information acquisition unit that acquires a reference value for ranking an index based on a numerical performance for environmental conservation; and a performance value prediction unit that predicts a performance value for the index based on past performance. A ship system that simultaneously displays information based on the temporal change in the reference value and the predicted result of the actual value on a display device.

2. a life prediction unit that predicts a life of the ship based on the reference value and a result of the actual value prediction unit; the information acquisition unit acquires a first graph based on a temporal change in the reference value; the performance value prediction unit obtains a second graph based on a change over time in the performance value prediction result; The marine vessel system according to claim 1 , wherein the life prediction unit predicts the life based on an intersection of the first graph and the second graph.

3. The ship system according to claim 2 , further comprising a proposal unit that proposes a method for extending the lifespan of the ship based on a lifespan prediction result from the lifespan prediction unit.

4. a first graph based on temporal changes in ranking criteria for indicators based on numerical performance for environmental conservation; a second graph based on a change over time in the result of the performance value prediction performed by predicting the performance value of the index based on past performance; and a predicted lifespan of the ship based on the intersection point between the first graph and the second graph.

5. an information acquisition step of acquiring a reference value for ranking an index based on a numerical performance for environmental conservation; a performance value prediction step of predicting a performance value for the index based on past performance; a display step of simultaneously displaying information based on the time variation of the reference value and the predicted result of the actual value on a display device; A ship program that causes a computer to execute the above.

Images