Environmental certificate sales revenue forecasting device and environmental certificate sales revenue forecasting method

Abstract

To expect the sales profit of an environmental certificate to be generated in the future.SOLUTION: An environmental certificate sales profit prediction device refers to environmental performance management information to determine a prediction value of an environment improvement effect for a first facility. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device estimates the amount of an environmental certificate observed for the first facility based on the prediction value. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device refers to environmental certificate future price management information, predicts the future sales profit of the environmental certificate based on the amount of the environmental certificate, and outputs information on the sales profit.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to forecasting revenue from the sale of environmental certificates. [Background technology]

[0002] In recent years, environmental certificates, such as J-Credits and Green Power Certificates, which are certificates for trading environmental value, have come into use. Environmental certificates indicate credits derived from, for example, renewable energy or energy conservation. Environmental certificates not only allow companies to demonstrate their efforts to address environmental issues to others, but can also generate profits when sold.

[0003] As a related technology to the present disclosure, for example, Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2021-61733 (Patent Document 1) is known. Patent Document 1 discloses a procedure executed by a management device for creating green power certificates. In Patent Document 1, after installation of equipment (residential solar power generation), the amount of power generated by the equipment is measured over a certain period of time, and a green power certificate is applied for and obtained based on that value. Therefore, revenue can be earned by selling the green power certificates only after a certain period has passed since the installation of the equipment. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Patent Publication No. 2021-61733 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] For example, the time when funds are most needed is when installing equipment. However, the technology of Patent Document 1 cannot contribute to raising funds for installing equipment because it applies for and acquires green power certificates based on the amount of power generated after the equipment is installed. As another example, the technology of Patent Document 1 cannot provide information for determining whether or not new equipment should be installed. Therefore, there is a need for technology that can appropriately predict future sales revenues from green certificates generated by equipment. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] A representative example of the present invention is an environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device that includes a computing device and a storage device. The storage device stores environmental performance management information that manages information related to the performance of equipment, and environmental certificate future price management information that manages information related to the prediction of future prices of environmental certificates. The computing device refers to the environmental performance management information to determine a predicted value of the environmental improvement effect of a first equipment, estimates the amount of environmental certificates that will be granted for the first equipment based on the predicted value, refers to the environmental certificate future price management information to predict future sales revenue of the environmental certificates based on the amount of environmental certificates, and outputs information related to the sales revenue. [Effects of the Invention]

[0007] According to one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to predict future sales revenues from environmental certificates. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0008] [Figure 1] 1A and 1B are diagrams illustrating an example of a logical configuration of an environmental certificate sales profit prediction device according to a first embodiment and an example of a business scheme using the same. [Figure 2] An example of a system configuration for realizing the business scheme shown in FIG. 1 and an example of a hardware configuration of an environmental certificate sales profit prediction device 1 are shown. [Figure 3] The figure shows a CPU that operates as a specific functional unit by executing a program stored in memory. [Figure 4]An example of data stored in the auxiliary storage device is shown below. [Figure 5] An example of the configuration of the environmental performance DB is shown below. [Figure 6] Here are some examples of probability distributions: [Figure 7] 10 shows an example of the configuration of a certificate certification condition DB. [Figure 8] An example of the configuration of the environmental certificate future price DB is shown below. [Figure 9A] An example of the probability distribution of the unit price of an environmental certificate (amount of renewable energy generated) is shown below. [Figure 9B] An example of the probability distribution of the unit price (GHG reduction amount) of an environmental certificate is shown below. [Figure 10] An example of the operation of the effect prediction unit will be described. [Figure 11] 10 shows an example of the operation of the environmental certificate amount prediction unit. [Figure 12A] 10 shows an example of the operation of the environmental certificate sales profit prediction unit. [Figure 12B] An example of the probability density of the profits from buying and selling environmental certificates is shown below. [Figure 13] An example of the operation of the sales proceeds present value conversion unit will be shown. [Figure 14] 10 shows an example screen showing information sent to the bank. [Figure 15] 10 shows an example screen showing information sent to the bank. [Figure 16] 10A and 10B are diagrams illustrating an example of a logical configuration of an environmental certificate sales profit prediction device according to a second embodiment and an example of a business scheme using the same. [Figure 17] The figure shows a CPU that operates as several functional units by executing programs stored in memory. [Figure 18] 10 shows an example of the operation of the post-operation effect re-prediction unit. [Figure 19] 10 shows an example screen showing information sent to the bank. [Figure 20] 10A and 10B are diagrams illustrating an example of a logical configuration of an environmental certificate sales profit prediction device according to a third embodiment and an example of a business scheme using the same. [Figure 21]An example of a system configuration and an example of a hardware configuration of an environmental certificate sales profit prediction device for realizing the business scheme shown in FIG. 20 are shown. [Figure 22] The figure shows a CPU that operates as several functional units by executing programs stored in memory. [Figure 23] An example of data stored in the auxiliary storage device is shown below. [Figure 24] 10 shows an example of the operation of the insurance premium candidate calculation unit. [Figure 25] An example of information sent to the credit guarantee company is shown below. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0009] The following examples will be described with reference to the drawings. Note that the following examples do not limit the scope of the invention as claimed, and not all of the elements and combinations thereof described in the examples are necessarily essential to the solution of the invention.

[0010] In the following explanation, various types of information may be described using the expression "aaa table," but the various types of information may be expressed in data structures other than tables. To indicate independence from the data structure, the "aaa table" may be referred to as "aaa information." In the following explanation, processing may be described using the computer as the subject, but this indicates that the processing is executed by a processor (e.g., a CPU (Central Processing Unit)) possessed by a control device equipped in the computer.

[0011] Similarly, when a process is described simply using an apparatus as the subject, it indicates that the process is being executed by a controller provided in the apparatus. Furthermore, at least one of the control device and the controller may be a processor itself, or may include a hardware circuit that performs some or all of the processes performed by the control device or the controller. A program may be installed in each computer or apparatus from a program source. The program source may be, for example, a program distribution server or a storage medium. Furthermore, in the following description, an ID is used as identification information for an element, but other types of identification information may be used instead of or in addition to the ID.

[0012] In the embodiment, a method for predicting the amount of environmental certificates predicted to be obtained from new equipment and the profits from the sale of those environmental certificates using an environmental certificate sales profit prediction device is disclosed. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device determines a predicted value of the equipment's environmental improvement effect and estimates the amount of environmental certificates to be granted for the equipment based on the predicted value. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device predicts future sales profits from environmental certificates based on the amount of environmental certificates and outputs the predicted information. This makes it easy to obtain information about the predicted profits from the sale of environmental certificates granted for equipment. In the following, environmental variables such as renewable energy power generation and greenhouse gas reductions are used as variables representing the environmental improvement effect, but other variables may also be used. [Example]

[0013] 1 shows an example of the logical configuration of an environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device according to an embodiment of the present specification and an example of a business scheme using the same. The prediction results obtained by the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device disclosed in the present specification can be used for a variety of purposes, including those disclosed and not disclosed below.

[0014] 1, an individual / corporation 5 is an individual / corporation that is planning to install new equipment. The environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device 1 determines the present value of the sales revenue of environmental certificates that will be generated in the future by the equipment that the individual / corporation 5 plans to install.

[0015] The environmental certificate sale profit forecasting device 1 receives from an individual / corporation 5 information such as the conditions for using newly installed equipment, the usage patterns of existing equipment, information about the newly installed equipment itself, and current GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions. The conditions for using new equipment may include information such as the industry and installation area. Based on the received information, the environmental certificate sale profit forecasting device 1 determines the present value of the sales profit of environmental certificates that will be generated in the future by the equipment to be installed.

[0016] Bank 7 is a financial institution that provides loans to individuals / corporations 5 that plan to install new equipment, using the environmental certificates that the equipment will generate in the future as collateral. Bank 7 makes a decision regarding the loan to individual / corporation 5 based on the present value of the future sales revenue of the environmental certificates determined by environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device 1. When bank 7 decides to provide a loan, it provides the loan using the environmental certificates that will be generated in the future as collateral. This makes it easier for individuals / corporations 5 to install new equipment. Note that the calculation of the present value may be omitted, and the sales revenue may be presented to bank 7.

[0017] The equipment monitoring device 4 monitors the operating status, renewable energy power generation amount, GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emission amount, etc. of equipment installed by an individual / corporation 5. The monitoring results are transmitted to the environmental certificate sales profit prediction device 1 and the environmental certificate acquisition device 2. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device 1 predicts the renewable energy power generation amount, GHG reduction amount, etc. by the equipment based on the received information.

[0018] After the installation of the equipment, the environmental certificate acquisition device 2 applies for and obtains an environmental certificate for the environmental value generated by the equipment, based on the amount of renewable energy power generated by the equipment and the amount of GHG reduction achieved by the equipment. The application for the issuance of the environmental certificate is made to the environmental certificate authentication device 8.

[0019] The environmental certificate authentication device 8 receives an application for issuance of an environmental certificate, authenticates the application based on the contents of the application, and issues an environmental certificate. Furthermore, the environmental certificate authentication device 8 provides information on the past purchase and sale prices of environmental certificates to the environmental certificate sales profit prediction device 1. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device 1 predicts future sales profits from environmental certificates based on the received information.

[0020] The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device 1 includes an effect prediction unit 1011, an environmental certificate quantity prediction unit 1012, an environmental certificate sales profit prediction unit 1013, a sales profit present value conversion unit 1014, an environmental performance learning and updating unit 1015, a certification condition learning and updating unit 1016, and a future price learning and updating unit 1017. Furthermore, the environmental certificate sales profit prediction device 1 holds an environmental performance database (DB) 1031, a certificate certification condition DB 1032, and an environmental certificate future price DB 1033.

[0021] The environmental performance DB 1031 manages information on the amount of renewable energy power generation and the amount of GHG emissions when equipment is installed. The certificate certification conditions DB 1032 manages information on the conditions under which an environmental certificate is certified for equipment. The environmental certificate future price DB 1033 manages information on the unit price forecast of environmental certificates for each future year.

[0022] The effect prediction unit 1011 refers to the environmental performance DB 1031 and predicts the amount of renewable energy power generation and GHG reductions that will be achieved by the equipment to be introduced from the start of commercial operation until the end of its useful life. The environmental certificate amount prediction unit 1012 refers to the certificate certification condition DB 1032 and predicts the amount of environmental certificates to be obtained in the future based on the amounts predicted by the effect prediction unit 1011.

[0023] The environmental certificate sales revenue prediction unit 1013 refers to the environmental certificate future price DB 1033 and predicts the sales revenue of environmental certificates for each year based on the predicted quantity in the environmental certificate quantity prediction unit 1012. The sales revenue present value conversion unit 1014 converts the predicted value in the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction unit 1013 into present value.

[0024] After the start of commercial operation, the environmental performance learning and updating unit 1015 learns and updates the contents of the environmental performance DB 1031 based on the operation performance data of the equipment received from the equipment monitoring device 4. After the issuance of an environmental certificate, the certification condition learning and updating unit 1016 learns and updates the contents of the certificate certification condition DB 1032 based on the operation performance data of the equipment and the issuance performance data of the environmental certificate. The operation performance data and the issuance performance data can be acquired from the environmental certificate acquisition device 2. The operation performance data may also be acquired from the equipment monitoring device 4.

[0025] The future price learning and updating unit 1017 successively acquires trend information on the buying and selling prices of environmental certificates from the environmental certificate authentication device 8 , learns future prices, and updates the contents of the environmental certificate future price DB 1033 .

[0026] FIG. 2 shows an example of a system configuration for realizing the business scheme shown in FIG. 1 and an example of the hardware configuration of the environmental certificate sale profit prediction device 1. An environmental certificate secured loan support business 3 manages and operates the environmental certificate sale profit prediction device 1 and the environmental certificate acquisition device 2. An individual / corporation 5 introducing new equipment manages and operates the equipment monitoring device 4. A communication terminal 6 is used at a bank 7. An environmental certificate authentication device 8 is managed and operated by an environmental certificate issuing organization 9.

[0027] The environmental certificate secured loan support business 3 provides the following two services to the bank 7 when it provides a loan to an individual / corporation 5 secured by the environmental certificates that will be generated in the future from new facilities. The first service is to predict the value of the collateral, which is expressed as the present value of the sales proceeds from the environmental certificates that will be generated in the future. The second service is to apply for and obtain the issuance of environmental certificates on behalf of the individual / corporation 5, who is the operator, after the facility begins commercial operation, and send them to the bank 7.

[0028] The environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device 1, the environmental certificate acquisition device 2, the equipment monitoring device 4, the communication terminal 6, and the environmental certificate authentication device 8 can communicate with each other via a network 500. An example of the hardware configuration of the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device 1 will be described below, but other devices may also have a similar configuration.

[0029] The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device 1 includes a CPU 101, which is a computing device with computing capabilities, and a memory 102, which is a main storage device that provides a storage area for storing programs executed by the CPU 101 and data to be processed. The CPU 101 can include one or more cores, and the memory 102 is, for example, a RAM including a volatile storage area.

[0030] The environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device 1 further includes a communication interface 106 for data communication with other computer devices and external storage devices, and an auxiliary storage device 103 that provides non-volatile storage area using an HDD (Hard Disk Drive), flash memory, etc.

[0031] The environmental certificate sale profit prediction device 1 further includes an input device 104 that accepts operations from a user, and an output device 105 that presents the output results of each process to the user. The input device 104 includes, for example, a keyboard and a mouse, and the output device 105 includes, for example, a monitor and a printer. These components of the environmental certificate sale profit prediction device 1 can communicate with each other via an internal bus.

[0032] The functional units of the environmental certificate sales profit prediction device 1 shown in Fig. 1 can be implemented, for example, by the CPU 101 operating in accordance with a program. Fig. 3 schematically shows the CPU 101 operating as the functional units 1011 to 1017 by executing a program stored in the memory 102. Each program is loaded from the auxiliary storage device 103 to the memory 102, for example, and executed by the CPU 101. Note that at least a portion of the functional units may be configured with a logic circuit.

[0033] 4 shows an example of data stored in the auxiliary storage device 103. In this example, the auxiliary storage device 103 stores an environmental performance DB 1031, a certificate certification condition DB 1032, and an environmental certificate future price DB 1033. The programs executed by the CPU 101 and the data to be processed are loaded from the auxiliary storage device 103 to the memory 102, for example.

[0034] The environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device 1 and at least some of the other devices may be a physical computer system (one or more physical computers) or a system built on a group of computing resources (multiple computing resources) such as a cloud platform. The computer system or group of computing resources includes one or more interface devices, one or more storage devices (including, for example, a main storage device and an auxiliary storage device), and one or more processing devices.

[0035] When a function is realized by executing a program on a computing device, the specified processing is performed using a storage device and / or an interface device, etc., so the function may be considered to be at least a part of the computing device. Processing described using a function as the subject may also be processing performed by the computing device or a system having that computing device.

[0036] The program may be installed from a program source. The program source may be, for example, a program distribution computer or a computer-readable storage medium (e.g., a computer-readable non-transitory storage medium). The description of each function is an example, and multiple functions may be combined into one function or one function may be divided into multiple functions.

[0037] 5 shows an example of the configuration of the environmental performance DB 1031. The environmental performance DB 1031 manages information about facilities. The environmental performance DB 1031 includes a facility ID column 311, a usage industry column 312, an installation area column 313, a usage pattern column 314, a renewable energy (renewable energy) power generation amount or GHG generation amount column 315, a useful life column 316, and a similar facility column 317.

[0038] The equipment ID column 311 indicates information that uniquely identifies the equipment. The information that uniquely identifies the equipment is, for example, the manufacturer's model number or a specific number assigned by the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device 1. The user industry column 312 indicates the industry of the individual / corporation 5 that uses the equipment indicated in the equipment ID column 311.

[0039] The installation area column 313 indicates the area or location (inside a facility, outdoors, etc.) where the equipment indicated in the equipment ID column 311 is installed. The usage pattern column 314 indicates the pattern of use of the equipment indicated in the equipment ID column 311. The usage pattern can indicate, for example, the usage time, such as daytime or nighttime.

[0040] The renewable energy power generation amount or GHG generation amount column 315 indicates the renewable energy power generation amount or GHG generation amount for each year from the start of commercial operation to the end of the service life, which is due to the introduction of the equipment indicated in the equipment ID column 311. The renewable energy power generation amount or GHG generation amount column 315 can have the renewable energy power generation amount or GHG generation amount in the form of, for example, a probability distribution. This makes it possible to show more appropriate prediction results. Note that the renewable energy power generation amount or GHG generation amount column 315 may use a mode or other statistical value instead of a probability distribution.

[0041] FIG. 6 shows an example of a probability distribution. The renewable energy power generation or GHG generation column 315 holds the probability distribution for each year from the start of commercial operation to the end of the facility's useful life. As shown in FIG. 6, the probability distribution can be expressed in the form of a graph. In the graph, the horizontal axis indicates the renewable energy power generation or GHG generation, and the vertical axis indicates the probability density. The probability distribution can change depending on the number of years of use.

[0042] A population probability distribution is estimated for the amount of renewable energy power generation or GHG emissions when each piece of equipment is installed, based on past performance data from installations. This distribution is created for each piece of equipment, user industry, installation area, and usage pattern. The population probability distribution is estimated, for example, by assuming that the population follows a normal distribution, and estimating the normal distribution parameters (mean, variance) from performance data using the maximum likelihood method. This may be determined for each piece of equipment based on its specifications.

[0043] Returning to Fig. 5, the useful life column 316 indicates the useful life of the equipment indicated by the equipment ID 311. The similar equipment column 317 indicates equipment similar to the equipment indicated by the equipment ID 311. Specifically, the same ID is assigned to similar equipment indicated by the similar equipment column 317. Similar equipment is, for example, equipment with the same specifications but made by different manufacturers.

[0044] Note that the features that determine the amount of renewable energy power generation or GHG emissions of each facility are not limited to the above-mentioned use industry, installation area, and usage pattern, and some of these may be omitted or other features may be added.

[0045] Fig. 7 shows an example of the configuration of the certificate certification conditions DB 1032. The certificate certification conditions DB 1032 manages the conditions under which an environmental certificate is certified for equipment. In the example shown in Fig. 7, the certificate certification conditions DB 1032 includes a condition number column 321, a target equipment type column 322, and a certification conditions column 323. For each equipment type, certification conditions are extracted from the certification record of environmental certificates and stored.

[0046] The condition number column 321 indicates a number that uniquely identifies the certification condition for certification of an environmental certificate. The target equipment type column 322 indicates the type of equipment. The certification condition column 323 indicates the conditions under which an environmental certificate is certified for the equipment type indicated in the target equipment type column 322. If the current equipment satisfies the conditions indicated in the certification condition column 323 for the equipment type to which the current equipment belongs, it can be determined that an environmental certificate will be certified for the current equipment. For example, if the type of current equipment is a boiler, the certificate will be certified if the current equipment meets the certification conditions of condition numbers 1 and 2.

[0047] Fig. 8 shows an example of the configuration of the environmental certificate future price DB 1033. The environmental certificate future price DB 1033 manages reference information for predicting the future selling price of an environmental certificate. In the example of Fig. 8, the environmental certificate future price DB 1033 includes a target year column 331, an environmental certificate unit price forecast (renewable energy power generation amount) column 332, and an environmental certificate unit price forecast (GHG reduction amount) column 333.

[0048] The target year column 331 indicates the year in which the environmental certificate was sold. The predicted unit price (renewable energy power generation) column 332 of the environmental certificate indicates the predicted value of the unit price (renewable energy power generation) of the environmental certificate in the year indicated in the target year column 331. The predicted value is expressed, for example, in the form of a probability distribution. Figure 9A shows an example of the probability distribution of the unit price (renewable energy power generation) of the environmental certificate. The horizontal axis indicates the probability distribution, and the vertical axis indicates the probability density.

[0049] Returning to FIG. 8, the Environmental Certificate Unit Price Prediction (GHG Reduction Amount) column 333 indicates the predicted value of the unit price (GHG reduction amount) of the Environmental Certificate for the year indicated in the Target Year column 331. The predicted value is expressed, for example, in the form of a probability distribution. FIG. 9B shows an example of the probability distribution of the unit price (GHG reduction amount) of the Environmental Certificate. The horizontal axis indicates the probability distribution, and the vertical axis indicates the probability density.

[0050] The probability distribution of predictions for each future year can be calculated based on past purchase and sale prices of environmental certificates using time series data forecasting methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Gaussian process regression.

[0051] FIG. 10 shows an example of the operation of the effect prediction unit 1011. The effect prediction unit 1011 predicts the future amount of renewable energy power generation or GHG reduction by the target facility. In the example described below, the effect prediction unit 1011 acquires information about the facility and its usage conditions from an individual / corporation 5 that uses the facility, and calculates a predicted value of the amount of renewable energy power generation or GHG reduction by the facility over several years in the future. The predicted value is transmitted to the environmental certificate amount prediction unit 1012. Note that both the amount of renewable energy power generation and the amount of GHG reduction may be calculated.

[0052] 10, in step S10111, the effect prediction unit 1011 acquires the usage conditions of the newly installed equipment, information on the equipment itself such as the specifications of the equipment to be installed, and the current GHG emissions. The usage conditions include information indicated in the usage industry column 312, installation area column 313, or usage pattern column 314 of the environmental performance DB 1031, as well as information on the certification conditions for the environmental certificate, which will be described later.

[0053] In step S10112, the effect prediction unit 1011 obtains the probability distribution of the renewable energy power generation amount or GHG emission amount that meets the above conditions from the environmental performance DB 1031. Specifically, a record is selected in which the ID of the newly installed equipment matches the ID indicated in the equipment ID column 311 and the usage conditions match the values ​​indicated in the usage industry column 312, installation area column 313, and usage pattern column 314. Note that if there is no record that perfectly matches the usage conditions and usage pattern conditions, the combination with the highest similarity may be selected. The similarity may be defined as the distance between vectors consisting of the values ​​of these items.

[0054] In step S10113, the effect prediction unit 1011 transmits the predicted value of the renewable energy power generation amount or GHG reduction amount and the conditions of use of the equipment to the environmental certificate amount prediction unit 1012. The predicted value of the renewable energy power generation amount is, for example, obtained by applying the probability distribution selected in step S1012 to each year from the year of commercial operation start to the year after the useful life. The predicted value of the GHG reduction amount is obtained by applying a process of subtracting the probability distribution selected in step S1012 from the current GHG emissions to each year from the year of commercial operation start to the year after the useful life. Note that if the installed equipment is second-hand equipment, the remaining useful life is calculated.

[0055] Next, we will explain the operation of the environmental certificate amount prediction unit 1012. Fig. 11 shows an example of the operation of the environmental certificate amount prediction unit 1012. The environmental certificate amount prediction unit 1012 predicts the environmental certificate amount based on the predicted value of the renewable energy power generation amount or GHG reduction amount by the effect prediction unit 1011.

[0056] First, in step S10121, the environmental certificate amount prediction unit 1012 receives from the effect prediction unit 1011 the predicted value of the renewable energy power generation amount or GHG reduction amount and the conditions for using the facility.

[0057] In step S10122, the environmental certificate quantity prediction unit 1012 acquires the certification conditions for the environmental certificate related to the target equipment from the certificate certification conditions DB 1032. Specifically, the environmental certificate quantity prediction unit 1012 selects all records in which the type indicated in the target equipment type column 322 of the certificate certification conditions DB 1032 matches the type of the target equipment.

[0058] In step S10123, the environmental certificate quantity prediction unit 1012 predicts the quantity of the environmental certificate to be certified. Specifically, if the conditions for use of the target facility do not satisfy even one of the conditions selected in step S10122, the predicted value of the environmental certificate quantity is determined to be 0. If all conditions are satisfied, the environmental certificate quantity prediction unit 1012 determines, for example, the predicted value of the amount of renewable energy power generation or the amount of GHG reduction as the quantity of the environmental certificate.

[0059] In step S10124, the environmental certificate quantity prediction unit 1012 transmits the predicted value of the determined environmental certificate quantity to the environmental certificate sales profit prediction unit 1013. In the example shown in Fig. 11 , the environmental certificate quantity prediction unit 1012 transmits the predicted value of the renewable energy power generation amount or GHG reduction amount to the environmental certificate sales profit prediction unit 1013 together with the predicted value of the environmental certificate quantity.

[0060] Next, we will explain the operation of the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction unit 1013. Fig. 12A shows an example of the operation of the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction unit 1013. The environmental certificate sales revenue prediction unit 1013 predicts the environmental certificate sales revenue based on the predicted value of the amount of environmental certificates received from the environmental certificate amount prediction unit 1012.

[0061] First, in step S10131, the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction unit 1013 acquires the predicted value of the quantity of environmental certificates from the environmental certificate quantity prediction unit 1012. In this example, as described above, the predicted value of the renewable energy power generation amount or GHG reduction amount is received together with the predicted value of the quantity of environmental certificates.

[0062] In step S10132, the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction unit 1013 acquires a probability distribution of the predicted unit price of the environmental certificate from the environmental certificate future price DB 1033. For example, a probability distribution of the predicted unit price of the environmental certificate for each year from the year the commercial operation of the target facility starts to the year after the useful life has elapsed is acquired. The probability distribution of the predicted unit price of the environmental certificate is for either the amount of renewable energy power generation or the amount of GHG reduction.

[0063] In step S10133, the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction unit 1013 predicts the revenue to be obtained from the sale of environmental certificates for each year. The prediction can be performed, for example, as follows: The environmental certificate sales revenue prediction unit 1013 calculates the probability distribution of the sales revenue of environmental certificates based on the probability distribution of the predicted value of the quantity of environmental certificates and the probability distribution of the predicted unit price of environmental certificates.

[0064] For example, the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction unit 1013 uses Monte Carlo simulation to generate random numbers that follow the probability distribution of the predicted value of the quantity of environmental certificates and the probability distribution of the predicted unit price of environmental certificates, and calculates the product. By performing the above process multiple times, a sample of the sales revenue of environmental certificates can be obtained. Then, for example, assuming that the population follows a normal distribution, the maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the normal distribution parameters (mean, variance) from the sample values. This makes it possible to obtain the probability density of the sales revenue of environmental certificates. Figure 12B shows an example of the probability density of the sales revenue of environmental certificates.

[0065] The timing for selling environmental certificates can vary, such as annually or the year after they have been used until their useful life is reached, but in this embodiment, the environmental certificates obtained each year are sold the following year. From the probability distribution of sales revenue from environmental certificates, the predicted value of sales revenue and its probability can be calculated, for example, using the following method.

[0066] The first method uses the minimum value in a preset confidence interval. In the example shown in Figure 12B, the minimum value in a 95% confidence interval is 135,000 yen. Therefore, the predicted value of the sales revenue is 135,000 yen, and the probability is 95%. The second method uses the value of the mode and the probability at that time. In the example shown in Figure 12B, the mode is 150,000 yen, and the probability is 40%. In other words, the predicted value of the sales revenue is 150,000 yen, and the probability is 40%.

[0067] In step S10134, the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction unit 1013 transmits the predicted value of the sales revenue of the environmental certificate to the sales revenue present value conversion unit 1014. As an example, the transmitted predicted value of the sales revenue of the environmental certificate indicates the predicted value for each year from the year of commercial operation start to the end of the useful life. The predicted value for each year indicates, for example, the probability distribution of the sales revenue and the predicted value and probability of the sales revenue. The example of FIG. 12A indicates the minimum value of the confidence interval as the predicted value of the sales revenue, and the proportion of the confidence interval as the probability. Furthermore, in this example, in addition to the predicted value of the sales revenue of the environmental certificate, the predicted value of the renewable energy power generation amount or GHG reduction amount and the predicted value of the amount of the environmental certificate are transmitted.

[0068] In the above example, the environmental certificates obtained each year are sold the following year. Other sales methods are also possible, for example, the environmental certificates may be sold in one lump sum the year after they have been used until their useful life. In this case, sales revenue will be generated only in 2046, and the unit price prediction for the environmental certificates will use the probability distribution for 2046. Sales revenue for other years will be zero. If an expiration date is set for the environmental certificates, the prediction will be made on the condition that they are sold before that expiration date. Predictions can be made for multiple sales methods, and the one with the highest final sales revenue or its present value can be selected.

[0069] Next, we will explain the operation of the sales revenue present value conversion unit 1014. Fig. 13 shows an example of the operation of the sales revenue present value conversion unit 1014. The sales revenue present value conversion unit 1014 determines the present value of the sales revenue based on the predicted value of the sales revenue of the environmental certificate by the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction unit 1013.

[0070] First, in step S10141, the sales revenue present value conversion unit 1014 acquires the predicted value of sales revenue from the environmental certificate. In this example, as shown in Fig. 12A, the predicted value of the amount of renewable energy power generation or GHG reduction and the amount of environmental certificate are received together with the predicted value of sales revenue from the environmental certificate. The predicted value of sales revenue from the environmental certificate indicates the predicted value and probability of sales revenue for each year.

[0071] In step S10142, the sales proceeds present value conversion unit 1014 calculates the discount rate. The discount rate is calculated taking into account, for example, the following uncertainties. This allows for a more accurate present value to be calculated.

[0072] In this example, (A) the risk of deviation from the forecast of sales revenue from environmental certificates and (B) the risk of the facility being shut down are taken into consideration. For example, (A) the risk of deviation from the forecast of sales revenue from environmental certificates can be expressed as (100% - average value of the predicted probability of sales revenue from environmental certificates). (B) The risk of the facility being shut down can be expressed as the company's WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital). Using these, the discount rate can be calculated as follows: Discount rate = (100% - average predicted probability of sales revenue from environmental certificates for each year) + (the company's WACC) =5%+5%=10%

[0073] In step S10143, the sales revenue present value conversion unit 1014 calculates the present value of the sales revenue forecast value using the above discount rate. The calculation follows, for example, the following formula: r is the discount rate (e.g., 10% (0.1)), and n is the useful life of the equipment (e.g., 20 years).

number

[0074] In step S10144, the sales proceeds present value conversion unit 1014 transmits the present value of the sales proceeds of the environmental certificates to be generated in the future, calculated as described above, to the system of the bank 7. In this example, information received from the environmental certificate sales proceeds prediction unit 1013 is transmitted together with information on the present value of the sales proceeds of the environmental certificates. As described above, the information received from the environmental certificate sales proceeds prediction unit 1013 includes the predicted value of the renewable energy power generation amount or GHG reduction amount, the predicted value of the quantity of environmental certificates, and the predicted value of the sales proceeds of the environmental certificates.

[0075] Fig. 14 shows an example of a screen showing the information sent to the bank 7 in step S10144. The output device of the communication terminal 6 of the bank 7 presents the screen shown in Fig. 14 to, for example, a loan officer. The loan officer can decide whether to provide a loan and the loan amount. Note that a screen showing similar information may be displayed on the communication terminal of the individual / corporation 5 that installs the equipment.

[0076] The example screen shown in Fig. 14 shows information on the forecast results regarding the revenue from the sale of an environmental certificate. Information 1401 on the individual / corporation to which the equipment will be installed, information 1402 on the equipment to be installed, and forecast results 1403 on the revenue from the sale of an environmental certificate are shown. The forecast results 1403 present the information sent to the bank 7 from the sales revenue present value conversion unit 1014 described in Fig. 13.

[0077] Specifically, the forecast result 1403 shows the probability distribution of the predicted value of renewable energy power generation or GHG reduction amount for each year, the probability distribution of the predicted value of the amount of environmental certificates for each year, and the forecast result of the revenue from selling the environmental certificates. The forecast result of the revenue from selling the environmental certificates shows the probability distribution, predicted value, and predicted probability for each year. The forecast result 1403 also shows the expected year for selling the environmental certificates. When the user clicks on the probability distribution of each section via the input device, a screen of that distribution is displayed.

[0078] Furthermore, the forecast result 1403 indicates information on the present value of the sales revenue. Specifically, it indicates the present value of the total sales revenue, the discount rate used to calculate the present value, and the risk used in that calculation. In this example, the components are the risk of sales revenue forecast deviation and the risk of equipment operation suspension. Note that some of the information in the example screen shown in FIG. 14 may be omitted, and other information not shown may be presented.

[0079] The above configuration example is based on the premise that all of the effects of installing the equipment (renewable energy power generation or GHG reduction) will be converted into environmental certificates. However, it is also possible to decide in advance the percentage to be converted into environmental certificates and convert that portion into environmental certificates. For example, if the equipment installer is a corporation, the corporation may convert only the surplus amount exceeding the target into environmental certificates in order to achieve its own decarbonization goal. On the other hand, if the equipment installer is an individual, the individual may convert all of the effects of installing the equipment into environmental certificates and sell them.

[0080] The forecasted profits from the sale of the environmental certificates may be presented to the equipment manufacturer instead of the bank 7. For example, the manufacturer's personnel can refer to the presented information and determine the amount of discount on the equipment, with the sale of the environmental certificates as a condition. In addition, the bank may decide on a credit limit (commitment line) instead of a loan, based on the presented information.

[0081] The environmental certificate sale profit prediction device 1 may present prediction results for other similar facilities in addition to prediction results for the facility under consideration for introduction. For example, the environmental certificate sale profit prediction device 1 may present prediction results for similar facilities whose predicted present value is higher than that of the facility under consideration for introduction. In another example, the environmental certificate sale profit prediction device 1 may present prediction results for similar facilities whose prediction accuracy is higher than that of the facility under consideration for introduction. Based on the presented information, the bank may suggest, for example, that financing would be possible if the facility were switched to another manufacturer.

[0082] For example, the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device 1 predicts the present value of sales revenue for each piece of equipment similar to the equipment under consideration shown in the similar equipment column 317 of the environmental performance DB 1031, as described above. The prediction result for the similar equipment with the highest predicted present value is presented together with the prediction result for the equipment under consideration. For example, if the predicted present value of the equipment under consideration is smaller than a pre-specified value, prediction processing for the similar equipment may be performed.

[0083] For example, if the variance of the probability distribution of the predicted probability of revenue from an environmental certificate for equipment under consideration for installation is large, the accuracy of the revenue prediction may be low. For example, the predicted value of the sales revenue from an environmental certificate may be the mode, and the predicted probability may be the probability density of the mode. In this example, for example, the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device 1 predicts the predicted value of the sales revenue from an environmental certificate and the present value of the sales revenue for each piece of equipment similar to the equipment under consideration shown in the similar equipment column 317 of the environmental performance DB 1031, as described above.

[0084] The prediction probability and the present value of the sales revenue may be higher than those of the equipment under consideration, and information on the prediction results of similar equipment with the highest prediction probability or present value may be presented together with information on the prediction results of the equipment under consideration. If the prediction probability of the equipment under consideration is less than a threshold, a prediction may be made for similar equipment, and information on similar equipment with a prediction probability equal to or greater than the threshold may be presented.

[0085] FIG. 15 shows an example of a screen showing information to be sent to the bank 7. Shown are information 1501 about the individual / corporation to which the equipment will be installed, information 1502 about the equipment currently under consideration, forecast results 1503 regarding the profits from the sale of the environmental certificate, and information 1504 about similar equipment. The forecast results 1503 show information about the forecast results for the environmental certificate of the equipment currently under consideration, as well as information about the forecast results for the environmental certificate of similar equipment. The types of information shown in the forecast results 1503 are the same as those in the example screen shown in FIG. 14. As in the first embodiment, this screen may be presented to an entity other than a bank. [Example]

[0086] Another embodiment will be described below. Differences from the first embodiment will be mainly described below. In this embodiment, the operating status of the facility after installation is monitored, and the actual values ​​of the installation effect, for example, the amount of renewable energy power generation or the amount of GHG reduction, are measured. In this embodiment, a prediction regarding the amount of environmental certificates and their prices is re-executed based on the measured installation effect, and the results are presented to a bank, for example. The bank can review the loan terms, for example, the loan amount, by referring to the presented updated information.

[0087] Fig. 16 shows a schematic diagram of an example of the logical configuration of the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device 1 of this embodiment and an example of a business scheme using the same. Here, differences from the configuration example shown in Fig. 1 will be mainly explained. In addition to the components shown in Fig. 1, the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device 1 includes a post-operation effect re-prediction unit 1018.

[0088] After the equipment is installed, the post-operation effect re-prediction unit 1018 re-predicts the amount of renewable energy power generation or GHG reduction for the period from the start of commercial operation until the end of the useful life based on the actual operation results received from the equipment monitoring device 4.

[0089] 17 schematically shows the CPU 101 that operates as several functional units by executing programs stored in the memory 102. In addition to the functional units realized by the CPU 101 shown in FIG. 3, the CPU 101 also operates as a post-operation effect re-prediction unit 1018.

[0090] 18 shows an example of the operation of the post-operation effect re-prediction unit 1018. In step S10181, the post-operation effect re-prediction unit 1018 determines whether one year has passed since the start of commercial operation of the equipment. If one year has passed, the post-operation effect re-prediction unit 1018 proceeds to the next step.

[0091] In step S10182, the post-operation effect re-prediction unit 1018 acquires from the equipment monitoring device 4 the actual results of the equipment usage conditions and the actual values ​​of the renewable energy power generation amount or GHG emission amount in the first year of commercial operation.

[0092] In step S10183, a probability distribution of the amount of renewable energy power generation or GHG emissions that meets the above conditions is obtained. The conditions and patterns of use of the equipment may differ from those assumed before the start of commercial operation. Therefore, the post-operation effect re-prediction unit 1018 obtains actual results from the equipment monitoring device 4 and obtains a probability distribution corresponding to those results from the environmental performance DB 1031.

[0093] In step S10184, the post-operation effect re-prediction unit 1018 transmits the actual values ​​for the first year after the start of commercial operation and the predicted values ​​for subsequent years for the amount of renewable energy power generation or GHG reduction to the environmental certificate amount prediction unit 1012. In subsequent processing, the actual values ​​for the first year are used, and the predicted values ​​are used for the second year and thereafter.

[0094] FIG. 19 shows an example of a screen showing information to be sent to the bank 7. Information 1901 on the individual / corporation to which the equipment will be installed, information 1902 on the equipment currently under consideration, and a forecast result 1903 regarding the profits from the sale of the environmental certificate are shown. The forecast result 1903 shows information on the initial forecast result for the environmental certificate, as well as information on the forecast result based on actual results after operation has started and updated information. The types of information shown in the forecast result 1903 are the same as those in the example screen shown in FIG. 14. As in the first embodiment, this screen may be presented to entities other than banks.

[0095] Note that prediction results based on updated information may be presented not only in the first year after the start of operation, but also multiple times thereafter. [Example]

[0096] Other embodiments will be described below. Differences from the first embodiment will be mainly described below. This embodiment will explain a business scheme including a credit guarantee company. Figure 20 shows a schematic diagram of an example of the logical configuration of the environmental certificate sale revenue prediction device 1 of this embodiment and an example of a business scheme using the same. This makes it easier for individuals / corporations to obtain loans from banks. Here, differences from the configuration example shown in Figure 1 will be mainly described.

[0097] When Bank 7 provides a loan secured by environmental certificates that the facility will generate in the future, Credit Guarantee Company 11 compensates Bank 7 if its prediction of the profits from the sale of the environmental certificates proves to be incorrect. Bank 7 makes the loan a condition that Individual / Corporation 5 enters into a contract with Credit Guarantee Company 11. Individual / Corporation 5 pays an insurance premium to the Credit Guarantee Company.

[0098] 1, the environmental certificate sales profit prediction device 1 includes an insurance premium candidate calculation unit 1019 and a guarantee fee calculation master DB 1034. Based on the prediction probability of the environmental certificate sales profit, the insurance premium candidate calculation unit 1019 calculates a candidate insurance premium to be collected from individuals / corporations 5 as a source of funds by the credit guarantee company 11 that compensates the bank when the prediction is incorrect. The guarantee fee calculation master DB 1034 manages master information required when calculating insurance premiums.

[0099] Fig. 21 shows an example of a system configuration and an example of a hardware configuration of an environmental certificate sales profit prediction device 1 for realizing the business scheme shown in Fig. 20. A credit guarantee company 11 has been added to the example shown in Fig. 2. The communication terminal 10 of the credit guarantee company 11 can communicate with devices of other entities via a network 500.

[0100] 22 schematically shows the CPU 101 that operates as several functional units by executing programs stored in the memory 102. In addition to the functional units realized by the CPU 101 shown in FIG. 3, the CPU 101 also operates as a potential insurance premium calculation unit 1019.

[0101] Fig. 23 shows an example of data stored in the auxiliary storage device 103. In this example, the auxiliary storage device 103 stores a guarantee fee calculation master DB 1034 in addition to the database shown in Fig. 4. The guarantee fee calculation master DB 1034 manages the following master information required for guarantee fee calculation:

[0102] The first piece of information is the compensation conditions and compensation amount. This is included in the details determined in the compensation contract. For example, if actual sales fall short of the forecast, the amount of compensation will be the forecast value itself (e.g., 5 million yen). The second piece of information is the expected number of cases. This is the number of cases that will be covered by the insurance (e.g., 10,000 cases).

[0103] 24 shows an example of the operation of the insurance premium candidate calculation unit 1019. The compensation content assumed here is that when the amount falls below the prediction, the amount of the predicted value is compensated.

[0104] In step S10191, the insurance premium candidate calculation unit 1019 acquires the probability distribution, predicted value, and predicted probability of the predicted sales revenue of the environmental certificate for each year from the environmental certificate sales revenue prediction unit 1013. In step S10192, the insurance premium candidate calculation unit 1019 acquires the predicted present value of the sales revenue of the environmental certificate from the sales revenue present value conversion unit 1014.

[0105] In step S10193, the insurance premium candidate calculation unit 1019 calculates the compensation that needs to be paid. The compensation that needs to be paid can be calculated as follows. Compensation fees that must be paid = (Compensation fee in case of loss) * (100% - predicted probability of sales profit) * (expected number of cases) = 5M yen * (100%-95%) * 10,000 items

[0106] The insurance premium candidate calculation unit 1019 acquires the compensation fee in the event of a loss and the expected number of cases from the guarantee fee calculation master DB 1034. The insurance premium candidate calculation unit 1019 can use the average value of the predicted probability for each year as the predicted probability of sales profit.

[0107] In step S10194, the insurance premium candidate calculation unit 1019 calculates the guarantee fee per case. The guarantee fee per case can be calculated as follows: The expected number of cases is acquired from the guarantee fee calculation master DB 1034. Guarantee fee per case = (compensation fee to be paid) / (expected number of cases) = 5M yen * 5% * 10,000 cases / 10,000 cases =0.25M yen

[0108] In step S10195, the insurance premium candidate calculation unit 1019 transmits the candidate guarantee fee (reference value) to the system of the credit guarantee company 11. Figure 25 shows an example of information transmitted to the credit guarantee company in step S10159. The information can be displayed on the communication terminal 10 of the credit guarantee company 11.

[0109] The presented information includes information 2501 about the loan project, information 2502 about the estimated sales revenue of the environmental certificate, information 2503 about the compensation fee that needs to be paid to the bank, and information 2504 about the reference value of the guarantee fee per project. This information allows the person in charge at the credit guarantee company to more easily determine whether or not to grant a guarantee contract for the loan project. Note that some of the information shown in FIG. 25 may be omitted, and additional information not shown may be presented.

[0110] The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments and includes various modifications. For example, the above-described embodiments have been described in detail to clearly explain the present invention, and the present invention is not necessarily limited to those including all of the described configurations. Furthermore, it is possible to replace part of the configuration of one embodiment with the configuration of another embodiment, or to add the configuration of another embodiment to the configuration of one embodiment. Furthermore, it is possible to add, delete, or replace part of the configuration of each embodiment with other configurations.

[0111] Furthermore, the above-mentioned components, functions, processing units, etc. may be realized in part or in whole by hardware, for example, by designing them as integrated circuits. Furthermore, the above-mentioned components, functions, etc. may be realized in software by a processor interpreting and executing a program that realizes each function. Information such as the programs, tables, and files that realize each function can be stored in a memory, a recording device such as a hard disk or SSD (Solid State Drive), or a recording medium such as an IC card or SD card.

[0112] In addition, the control lines and information lines shown are those that are considered necessary for the explanation, and do not necessarily show all the control lines and information lines in the product. In reality, it can be assumed that almost all components are interconnected. [Explanation of symbols]

[0113] 1. Environmental certificate sales revenue forecasting device 2. Environmental certification acquisition device 4 Equipment monitoring device 8 Environmental Certificate Certification Device 101 CPU 102 memory 103 Auxiliary storage device 104 Input Device 105 Output Device 106 Communication Interface 1011 Effect Prediction Department 1012 Environmental Certificate Quantity Forecasting Department 1013 Environmental Certificate Sales Revenue Forecasting Department 1014 Sales Proceeds Present Value Conversion Section 1015 Environmental Performance Learning and Update Department 1016 Certification Requirements Learning and Renewal Department 1017 Future Price Learning and Update Section 1018 Post-operational effect re-prediction section 1019 Guarantee Fee Candidate Calculation Department 1031 Environmental Performance Database 1032 Certificate Certification Conditions Database 1033 Environmental Certificate Future Price Database 1034 Guarantee fee calculation master database

Claims

1. An environmental certificate sales revenue prediction device, A computing device; a storage device, The storage device includes: Environmental performance management information that manages information related to the performance of facilities; and storing environmental certificate future price management information for managing information relating to predictions of future prices of environmental certificates; The computing device determining a predicted value of the environmental improvement effect of the first facility by referring to the environmental performance management information; estimating the amount of environmental certificates to be granted to the first facility based on the predicted value; predicting future sales revenues of the environmental certificates based on the quantity of the environmental certificates by referring to the environmental certificate future price management information; outputting information about the sale proceeds; Environmental certificate sales revenue forecasting device.

2. 2. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device according to claim 1, The computing device calculates the present value of the sales proceeds, The information about the sale proceeds includes the present value. Environmental certificate sales revenue forecasting device.

3. 3. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device according to claim 2, The computing device determining a discount rate based on the predicted probability of the sale proceeds; Calculating the present value of the sale proceeds based on the discount rate; Environmental certificate sales revenue forecasting device.

4. 2. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device according to claim 1, The predicted value of the environmental improvement effect of the first facility, the amount of the environmental certificates, and the sales revenue are expressed by a probability distribution. Environmental certificate sales revenue forecasting device.

5. 5. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device according to claim 4, The computing device determining a combination of sales revenue forecast values ​​and forecast probabilities based on the probability distribution of sales revenue; determining a discount rate based on the predicted probability; determining a present value of the sale proceeds based on the estimated sale proceeds and the discount rate; The information about the sale proceeds includes the present value. Environmental certificate sales revenue forecasting device.

6. 2. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device according to claim 1, the storage device stores certificate certification condition management information that manages conditions under which environmental certificates are granted; the computing device acquires the usage conditions of the first facility, and determines the amount of the environmental certificate based on the usage conditions and the certificate certification condition management information; Environmental certificate sales revenue forecasting device.

7. 2. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device according to claim 1, The environmental performance management information indicates facilities that are similar to each other, The computing device determining a predicted value of the environmental improvement effect of a facility similar to the first facility by referring to the environmental performance management information; estimating the amount of environmental certificates to be granted for the similar facilities based on the predicted values ​​of the similar facilities; predicting future sales revenues of the environmental certificates of the similar facilities based on the amount of the environmental certificates of the similar facilities with reference to the environmental certificate future price management information; outputting information regarding the sale proceeds of the environmental certificates of the similar facilities; Environmental certificate sales revenue forecasting device.

8. 2. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device according to claim 1, The computing device predicting the future sales revenue before the first facility begins operation; updating the forecast of future sales revenues based on actual usage conditions of the first facility after the first facility begins operation; outputting information relating to the updated sales revenue forecast; Environmental certificate sales revenue forecasting device.

9. 2. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device according to claim 1, The storage device stores guarantee fee calculation management information including information on guarantee conditions and guarantee fees. The computing device determines a guarantee fee based on the sales proceeds by referring to the guarantee fee calculation management information; Output the guarantee fee. Environmental certificate sales revenue forecasting device.

10. 2. The environmental certificate sales profit prediction device according to claim 1, The predicted value of the environmental improvement effect is a predicted value of at least one of a renewable energy power generation amount and a greenhouse gas reduction amount. Environmental certificate sales revenue forecasting device.

11. A method for predicting revenue from the sale of environmental certificates, which is executed by an apparatus, The device comprises: Environmental performance management information that manages information related to the performance of facilities; and storing environmental certificate future price management information for managing information relating to predictions of future prices of environmental certificates; The method for predicting revenue from the sale of environmental certificates comprises: determining a predicted value of the environmental improvement effect of the first facility by referring to the environmental performance management information; estimating the amount of environmental certificates to be granted to the first facility based on the predicted value; predicting future sales revenues of the environmental certificates based on the quantity of the environmental certificates by referring to the environmental certificate future price management information; outputting information about the sale proceeds; Method for predicting revenue from the sale of environmental certificates.

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