Growth prediction method and growth prediction program

Abstract

To easily predict harvest prediction information and output the information.SOLUTION: An information processor receives an input of the type of a crop and the condition of growth from a user and acquires reference data for the type of an input crop from reference data DB (see Drawing 7a). The information processor corrects the reference data on the basis of the difference between the input growth condition and the growth condition related to the acquired reference data (see Drawing 7b). The information processor displays, in a display unit, information obtained from the corrected reference data (harvest prediction information including a harvest predicted date or a predicted yield amount.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 7

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a growth prediction method and a growth prediction program. [Background technology]

[0002] It is important to accurately predict the growth status and yield of vegetables, etc. For example, if the yield is higher than predicted, it will lead to unsold produce, and if the yield is lower than predicted, it may result in lost sales opportunities or an inability to deliver the contracted quantity to the customer, which could lead to a loss of credibility. In addition, poor yield prediction accuracy will also affect the securing and deployment of personnel required for harvesting work, etc.

[0003] Conventionally, producers have made yield predictions based on experience and intuition, referring to past records for the same period, the immediately preceding yield, and the state of crop growth.

[0004] Recently, technologies have become known that refer to basic data on a plant variety and present cultivation information for that variety (see Patent Document 1, etc.), and that create and output predicted growth ranges using predictive models based on meteorological and field conditions (see Patent Document 2, etc.). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0005] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2006-333744 [Patent Document 2] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2013-51887 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0006] However, when producers and the like make yield predictions based on experience and intuition, the prediction accuracy is low. Furthermore, in the case of Patent Document 1, the cultivation information presented does not match the actual cultivation conditions of the producers and the like, and in the case of Patent Document 2, a prediction model is used, which requires a large-scale system, making it impossible for small- and medium-sized producers and consumers to easily check the growth conditions and yield changes of crops.

[0007] In one aspect, the present invention aims to provide a growth prediction method and a growth prediction program that are capable of easily predicting and outputting information related to crop growth. [Means for solving the problem]

[0008] In one embodiment, the growth prediction method includes: Cultivated Crop type and Cultivated crops When cultivating When the input of the growing environment information is accepted, the reference data corresponding to the input type of crop is acquired by referring to a storage unit that stores reference data relating to the growth of a plurality of types of crops and reference environment information indicating the growing environment when the reference data was acquired, and The crops to be cultivated Correcting the acquired reference data based on a difference between the growth environment information and the reference environment information associated with the acquired reference data. As prediction data regarding the growth of the crops to be cultivated, , Prediction data regarding the growth of the crops to be cultivated The computer executes the process to output the reference data. and the predicted data is a growth prediction method including at least one of data relating to time-varying information about the size of the crop and data relating to time-varying illustrations or photographs showing the crop. [Effects of the Invention]

[0009] Information about crop growth can be easily predicted and output. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0010] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of an information processing device according to an embodiment. [Figure 2] FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram of the information processing device. [Figure 3] FIG. 3(a) is a diagram showing an example of reference data for the crop "tomato," and FIG. 3(b) is a diagram showing an example of reference data for the crop "cabbage." [Figure 4] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of reference data for the crop "chrysanthemum." [Figure 5] 10 is a flowchart showing a process that starts when a growth prediction program is started. [Figure 6] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of an input screen. [Figure 7] FIG. 7(a) shows an example of the reference data before correction, and FIG. 7(b) shows an example of the reference data after correction. [Figure 8] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of a display screen. [Figure 9] 10 is a flowchart showing the process of the output processing unit after the display screen is displayed. [Figure 10] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a display screen on which detailed information is displayed. [Figure 11] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an information processing system according to a modified example. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0011] An embodiment will be described in detail below with reference to Figs. 1 to 10. Fig. 1 shows the hardware configuration of an information processing device 10 according to an embodiment. The information processing device 10 is a terminal such as a PC (Personal Computer) or a smartphone, and is a terminal that can be used by agricultural producers and the like (hereinafter referred to as "users"). When a user inputs the type of crop and cultivation conditions (growth environment information), the information processing device 10 displays harvest prediction information including information on the predicted harvest date, which indicates when the crop can be harvested, and a predicted harvest yield, which indicates how much of the crop can be harvested.

[0012] As shown in FIG. 1 , the information processing device 10 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 190, a ROM (Read Only Memory) 192, a RAM (Random Access Memory) 194, storage (such as a HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or an SSD (Solid State Drive)) 196, a network interface 197, a display unit 193, an input unit 195, and a portable storage medium drive 199. The display unit 193 includes a liquid crystal display or the like, and the input unit 195 includes a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, and the like. These components of the information processing device 10 are connected to a bus 198. In the information processing device 10, the CPU 190 executes a program (including a growth prediction program) stored in the ROM 192 or the HDD 196, or a program (including a growth prediction program) read from the portable storage medium 191 by the portable storage medium drive 199, thereby realizing the functions of the components shown in FIG. 2 .

[0013] Fig. 2 is a functional block diagram of the information processing device 10. As shown in Fig. 2, the information processing device 10 functions as an input receiving unit 20, a reference data acquiring unit 22, a correcting unit 24, and an output processing unit 26 by the CPU 190 executing a program.

[0014] The input receiving unit 20 acquires information input by the user. When the growth prediction program is started, an input screen such as that shown in FIG. 6 is displayed on the display unit 193 of the information processing device 10. On the input screen of FIG. 6, one or more types of crops to be cultivated can be selected, and cultivation conditions (average temperature, average amount of solar radiation, sowing date, planting date, cultivation area) can be input. After the user selects a crop and inputs the cultivation conditions, the user presses the "Confirm harvest prediction information" button, and the input receiving unit 20 acquires the information selected and input by the user. The input receiving unit 20 transmits the acquired information to the reference data acquiring unit 22 and the correcting unit 24.

[0015] The reference data acquiring unit 22 acquires reference data corresponding to the type of crop selected by the user from the reference data DB 30. Here, it is assumed that the reference data DB 30 stores reference data for crops such as those shown in Figures 3(a), 3(b), and 4.

[0016] For example, the data in Figure 3(a) is reference data obtained when tomatoes were actually grown. It includes information on the cultivation conditions (reference environmental information, including average daily temperature and average daily solar radiation), as well as graphs showing changes in plant height (time-varying morphological characteristics) after sowing and planting, harvest time, illustrations and photographs showing changes in the morphological characteristics of the crop over time, and yield (per day, per unit area). The time-varying plant height and yield may be averaged over multiple cultivation results under the same cultivation conditions. Furthermore, when generating the graph, actual plant height measurements are taken at predetermined intervals. Therefore, for the period between the first and second times at which the actual measurements were obtained, it is assumed that the plant height increases in proportion to time (a straight line connects the actual measurements for the first and second times). The illustrations and photographs showing changes in morphological characteristics also include information on dimensions (crop width W1, crop height (crop length) L1) and flowering and fruit set (L1 and W1 are assumed to be specific numerical values).

[0017] The data in Figure 3(b) is reference data obtained when cabbage was cultivated, and contains the same information as the reference data for tomatoes in Figure 3(a). Note that in Figure 3(b), the graph showing the time-varying changes in shape characteristics is a graph showing the change in head diameter.

[0018] The data in FIG. 4 is reference data obtained when chrysanthemums were cultivated, and includes the same information as in FIGS. 3(a) and 3(b). In FIG. 4, the graph showing the time change in shape characteristics is a graph showing the change in plant height. Although FIGS. 3(a) to 4 illustrate reference data for three types of crops (tomato, cabbage, and chrysanthemum), reference data for other types of crops is also stored in the reference data DB 30.

[0019] Returning to Fig. 2, the correction unit 24 corrects the reference data based on the cultivation conditions (average temperature, average solar radiation, sowing date, planting date, and cultivation area) input by the user on the input screen of Fig. 6. The correction unit 24 transmits the corrected reference data to the output processing unit 26.

[0020] The output processing unit 26 acquires harvest prediction information from the reference data corrected by the correction unit 24, creates a display screen for displaying the acquired harvest prediction information, and displays it on the display unit 193. For example, the output processing unit 26 displays a display screen such as that shown in Fig. 8 on the display unit 193. Furthermore, the output processing unit 26 changes the display screen as shown in Fig. 10 in response to a user operation.

[0021] (Regarding the processing of the information processing device 10) Next, the processing of the information processing device 10 will be described in detail with reference to the flowcharts of FIGS. 5 and 9 and other drawings as appropriate.

[0022] The process in FIG. 5 is started when the growth prediction program is started in response to a user operation.

[0023] When the processing of FIG. 5 starts, first, in step S10, the output processing unit 26 displays an input screen as shown in FIG. 6 on the display unit 193. On the input screen of FIG. 6, the user can select one or more types of crops for which they want to check the yield and harvest date. Here, as an example, it is assumed that the user has selected "tomato" and "cabbage." Note that on the input screen of FIG. 6, crops are displayed with illustrations and text, making it easier for the user to select the type of crop.

[0024] The user also inputs cultivation conditions (average temperature, average solar radiation, sowing date, planting date, and cultivation area) on the input screen. After completing all input, the user presses the "Confirm harvest forecast information" button provided on the input screen. Note that the user does not need to manually input the average temperature and average solar radiation. For example, the input receiving unit 20 may automatically calculate the average temperature and average solar radiation based on information on the sowing date and planting date, past weather data, and future forecast data.

[0025] After step S10, the input receiving unit 20 waits until the "Confirm harvest forecast information" button is pressed in step S12. Therefore, when the user presses the button, the input receiving unit 20 proceeds to step S14.

[0026] In step S14, the input receiving unit 20 acquires the type of crop selected by the user and the cultivation conditions input by the user.

[0027] Next, in step S16, the reference data acquisition unit 22 acquires reference data corresponding to the type of crop selected by the user from the reference data DB 30. If the user selects "tomato" and "cabbage," the reference data for "tomato" shown in Fig. 3(a) and the reference data for "cabbage" shown in Fig. 3(b) are acquired.

[0028] Next, in step S18, the correction unit 24 corrects the reference data according to the cultivation conditions. For example, in the case of tomatoes, based on the cultivation data accumulated in the past, there is a tendency that "when the average temperature is x°C higher, the period from planting to harvesting becomes y% shorter" and "when the average solar radiation is zMJ / m 2Assume that there is a tendency that "when the temperature is high, the period from planting to harvest date is shortened by w%." In this case, the correction unit 24 compares the average temperature and average solar radiation (reference environmental information) of the reference data with the average temperature and average solar radiation input by the user, and corrects the number of days from planting to harvest date based on the comparison result. For example, if the correction unit 24 determines based on the comparison result that the number of days from planting to harvest date of the reference data needs to be corrected to be 90% shorter, it corrects the graph of the reference data shown in FIG. 7(a) to that shown in FIG. 7(b).

[0029] Furthermore, if the yield (per unit area) of the reference data also shows a trend according to changes in the average temperature or average amount of solar radiation, the correction unit 24 corrects the yield (per unit area) based on that trend.

[0030] The correction unit 24 performs the same process on the cabbage as on the tomato.

[0031] Next, in step S20, the output processing unit 26 identifies the predicted harvest date and the predicted harvest yield from the reference data corrected by the correction unit 24. Specifically, the output processing unit 26 identifies the predicted harvest date based on the reference data corrected by the correction unit 24 and the sowing date and planting date input by the user. The output processing unit 26 also calculates the product of the cultivation area input by the user and the corrected harvest yield (per unit area) to obtain the predicted harvest yield (per cultivation area). The output processing unit 26 then creates a display screen for the harvest prediction information as shown in FIG. 8 and displays it on the display unit 193. Note that the display screen in FIG. 8 has check boxes for each crop, and a "Details" button above the check boxes. The user can check detailed data for the checked crop by checking the check boxes and pressing the "Details" button.

[0032] Next, the process executed by the output processing unit 26 when the display screen of FIG. 8 is displayed on the display unit 193 will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG.

[0033] 9 starts, first, in step S30, the output processing unit 26 waits until the user presses the "Details" button. When the user checks the checkbox of the crop for which they want to see detailed information and presses the "Details" button, the output processing unit 26 proceeds to step S32. In this embodiment, it is assumed that the user checks "tomato" and "cabbage" and presses the "Details" button.

[0034] When the process proceeds to step S32, the output processing unit 26 creates a display screen as shown in FIG. 10 including detailed information and input buttons, and displays it on the display unit 193. As shown in FIG. 10, the detailed information displays the planting date and harvest date on a graph or illustration of the corrected reference data. The input buttons, as shown in the upper right corner of the display screen, are buttons for inputting correction information for raising or lowering the average air temperature (temperature) or advancing or delaying the sowing date or planting date. The input buttons may also include buttons for raising or lowering the average amount of solar radiation or increasing or decreasing the cultivation area.

[0035] 9, after step S32, the process proceeds to step S34, where the output processing unit 26 waits until an input button is pressed (i.e., until correction information is input). When the user presses any of the input buttons, the output processing unit 26 proceeds to step S36.

[0036] In step S36, the output processing unit 26 corrects the harvest forecast information in accordance with the pressed input button (i.e., the input correction information) and updates the display screen. For example, if the user presses the "Raise temperature by 1°C" button, the output processing unit 26 notifies the correction unit 24 that the average temperature input by the user on the input screen of FIG. 6 has been increased by 1°C. In response, the correction unit 24 corrects the reference data with the average temperature after the increase of 1°C and notifies the output processing unit 26 of the corrected data. The output processing unit 26 then updates the display screen of FIG. 10 using the corrected data and displays it on the display unit 193. The same applies when the user presses the "Lower temperature by 1°C" button. Furthermore, if the user presses the "Advance sowing date or planting date by 1 day" button or the "Delay sowing date or planting date by 1 day" button, the harvest forecast date on the display screen of FIG. 10 is adjusted accordingly and displayed on the display unit 193.

[0037] Next, in step S38, the output processing unit 26 determines whether or not the process is finished. That is, it determines whether or not the user has performed an operation to close the display screen of Fig. 10. If the determination in step S38 is negative, the process returns to step S34. On the other hand, if the determination in step S38 is positive, the entire process of Fig. 9 is finished.

[0038] As described above in detail, in this embodiment, when the input receiving unit 20 receives input of a crop type and cultivation conditions from the user (S14), the reference data acquiring unit 22 acquires reference data corresponding to the input crop type from the reference data DB 30 (S16). The correcting unit 24 then corrects the reference data based on the difference between the input cultivation conditions and the cultivation conditions associated with the acquired reference data. The output processing unit 26 then displays information obtained from the corrected reference data (harvest prediction information, including the predicted harvest date and predicted yield) on the display unit 193. In this manner, in this embodiment, the reference data is corrected based on the cultivation conditions, and information obtained from the corrected reference data is provided to the user as harvest prediction information. This allows for more appropriate harvest prediction information to be provided to the user than if the reference data itself were provided. Furthermore, the information processing device 10 corrects the reference data based on the cultivation conditions and outputs information obtained from the corrected reference data as harvest prediction information, allowing for easy prediction and output of harvest prediction information. Furthermore, growth prediction programs using AI or machine learning that target a single crop are expensive and only a limited number of producers can adopt them, but a program that can easily provide harvest prediction information, like the present embodiment, can be developed inexpensively, so the number of producers that can adopt it can increase. Furthermore, in the case of the present embodiment, because it is a growth prediction program that can target multiple types of crops, producers can check harvest prediction information for multiple types of crops at the same time, making it easy to use.

[0039] In this embodiment, as shown in Figures 3(a), 3(b), and 4, the reference data includes data on the time-dependent changes in the shape characteristics of the crop (graphs showing the time-dependent changes in plant height and head diameter) and data on the time-dependent changes in the morphological characteristics of the crop (illustrations and photographs). Therefore, the output processing unit 26 can provide the user with data based on the time-dependent changes in the shape characteristics and morphological characteristics. By referring to this data, the user can easily confirm how the dimensions and morphology of the crop change.

[0040] Furthermore, in this embodiment, the reference data includes data on the yield of the crop, so the output processing unit 26 can provide the user with information on the predicted yield.

[0041] In this embodiment, the display screen in FIG. 10 is provided with an input button for correcting the cultivation environment. When the output processing unit 26 receives input from the user, it displays on the display screen harvest prediction information based on data obtained by further correcting the corrected reference data. This allows the user to check changes in the harvest prediction information when making detailed changes to the cultivation environment. In this embodiment, the harvest prediction information changes depending on the number of times the input button is pressed, allowing the user to check changes in the harvest prediction information with intuitive operations.

[0042] In the above embodiment, the reference data DB 30 may store information about the cultivation area in association with the reference data. In this case, the input screen (FIG. 6) is configured to allow the user to input information about the cultivation area. When the user inputs the type of crop and the cultivation area, the reference data acquisition unit 22 may acquire the reference data corresponding to the input cultivation area from the reference data corresponding to the input type of crop. This allows the reference data corresponding to the cultivation area to be corrected to acquire harvest prediction information, making it possible to provide the user with more accurate harvest prediction information.

[0043] In the above embodiment, the reference data stored in the reference data DB30 is described as being reference data for each type of crop, but this is not limited to this, and more detailed reference data, for example, reference data for each variety, may also be used.

[0044] In the above embodiment, the input buttons displayed on the display screen of Figure 10 are described as up, down, left, and right buttons, but this is not limited to this, and other input components may be used as long as they are capable of inputting correction information for each cultivation condition.

[0045] In the above embodiment, the display screen of FIG. 10 may be configured to allow the user to modify harvest prediction information, such as the predicted harvest yield and predicted harvest date. When the user modifies this information, the output processing unit 26 determines the cultivation conditions (average temperature, average solar radiation, sowing date, planting date, and cultivation area) corresponding to the modified harvest prediction information and displays them on the display screen. This allows the user to confirm the cultivation conditions required to obtain the modified predicted harvest yield and the cultivation conditions required to enable harvesting on the modified predicted harvest date. The display screen may also be provided with input buttons for modifying harvest prediction information, such as the predicted harvest yield and predicted harvest date. This allows the user to perform input operations intuitively.

[0046] In the above embodiment, the information processing device 10 includes the reference data DB 30, corrects the reference data stored in the reference data DB 30, and outputs harvest forecast information. However, this is not limiting. For example, as shown in FIG. 11 , a process similar to that of the above embodiment may be performed in an information processing system 100 in which a server 300 and a user terminal 70 are connected to a network 80 such as the Internet. Specifically, the server 300 includes the reference data DB 30. When information on a crop type and cultivation conditions is input to the user terminal 70, the server 300 acquires the information and retrieves reference data corresponding to the crop type from the reference data DB 30. The server 300 then corrects the acquired reference data based on the cultivation conditions and outputs harvest forecast information obtained from the corrected reference data to the user terminal 70. This configuration also allows the user to be provided with information similar to that of the above embodiment. Furthermore, in the case of FIG. 11 , the processing load on the user terminal 70 can be reduced. The reference data DB 30 may be stored in a device other than the server 300 (e.g., a database server) that can communicate with the server 300.

[0047] The above processing functions can be realized by a computer. In this case, a program is provided that describes the processing contents of the functions that the processing device should have. By executing the program on a computer, the above processing functions are realized on the computer. The program that describes the processing contents can be recorded on a computer-readable storage medium (excluding carrier waves).

[0048] When distributing a program, it is sold in the form of a portable storage medium on which the program is recorded, such as a DVD (Digital Versatile Disc) or a CD-ROM (Compact Disc Read Only Memory).The program can also be stored in the storage device of a server computer and transferred from the server computer to other computers via a network.

[0049] A computer that executes a program stores, for example, a program recorded on a portable storage medium or a program transferred from a server computer in its own storage device. The computer then reads the program from its own storage device and executes processing in accordance with the program. Note that the computer can also read the program directly from a portable storage medium and execute processing in accordance with that program. The computer can also execute processing in accordance with the program received each time a program is transferred from the server computer.

[0050] The above-described embodiment is a preferred example of the present invention, but the present invention is not limited to this and can be modified in various ways without departing from the spirit of the present invention. [Explanation of symbols]

[0051] 10. Information processing equipment 20 Input reception section 22 Reference data acquisition unit 24 Correction unit 26 Output Processing Section 30 Standard Data DB

Claims

1. When input of a type of crop to be cultivated and information on the growing environment when the crop to be cultivated is received, the system acquires the reference data corresponding to the input type of crop by referring to a memory unit that stores reference data relating to the growth of multiple types of crops in association with reference environment information indicating the growing environment when the reference data was obtained; correcting the acquired reference data based on a difference between the input growth environment information of the crop to be cultivated and the reference environment information associated with the acquired reference data to obtain predicted data regarding the growth of the crop to be cultivated; outputting prediction data regarding the growth of the crop to be cultivated; The computer executes the processing, the reference data and the prediction data include at least one of data on time changes in information about the size of the crop and data on time changes in an illustration or a photograph showing the crop; A growth prediction method characterized by:

2. The storage unit stores information about the region where the reference data was obtained in association with the reference data, The growth prediction method described in claim 1, characterized in that when the acquisition process accepts input of information about the area in which the crop to be cultivated is to be grown, reference data corresponding to the input type of crop to be cultivated and the area in which the crop to be cultivated is to be grown is acquired from the memory unit.

3. The growth prediction method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the reference data includes data on at least one of a yield and a harvest time of the crop.

4. A growth prediction method described in any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that after the output process, the computer further executes a process in which, when input of correction information for the growth environment information is accepted, the prediction data is further corrected based on the correction information and the corrected prediction data is output.

5. The growth prediction method according to claim 4, characterized in that the correction information is information based on the number of times each of the buttons for increasing and decreasing the value of the growth environment information is pressed.

6. A growth prediction method described in any one of claims 1 to 5, characterized in that after the output process, if the output information is corrected, the computer further executes a process to output growth environment information corresponding to the corrected information.

7. When input of the type of crop to be cultivated is received, the method refers to a memory unit that stores reference data relating to the growth of multiple types of crops in association with reference environment information indicating the growth environment when the reference data was obtained, and acquires reference data corresponding to the input type of crop; correcting the acquired reference data based on a difference between the input growth environment information of the crop to be cultivated and the reference environment information associated with the acquired reference data to obtain predicted data regarding the growth of the crop to be cultivated; outputting prediction data regarding the growth of the crop to be cultivated; Have the computer execute the process, the reference data and the prediction data include at least one of data on time changes in information about the size of the crop and data on time changes in an illustration or a photograph showing the crop; A growth prediction program characterized by:

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