Power generation system

Abstract

To suppress the decline in the amount of electricity produced by power generation using natural energy sources in combination.SOLUTION: A power generation system includes determination means for determining the power generation amount of a stable power generation device as a normal power generation amount, judgment means for judging whether the power generation amount of a natural power generation device during a planned power generation period is less than a planned value, and control means for controlling the stable power generation device so that the power generation amount of the stable power generation device becomes the normal power generation amount determined by the determination means when the judgment means judges that the power generation amount is less, so that at least a part of the power the amount of which is obtained by subtracting the power generation amount of the natural power generation device from the planned value can be generated. The normal power generation amount is less than the stable power generation amount, which is the amount obtained by subtracting the amount obtained by subtracting the amount of actual power generation in the past from the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device, from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device can generate, and the past actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device is less than the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a power generation system.

Background Art

[0002] There is a power generation system including a power generation facility that generates electricity using natural energy such as sunlight and a power generation facility that generates electricity with less influence of climate such as thermal power generation.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0003]

Patent Document 1

Patent Document 2

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] However, power generation using natural energy is easily affected by the natural environment such as climate. As a result, the amount of electricity generated by the entire power generation system may decrease. More specifically, for example, the amount of electricity generated by the entire power generation system may decrease due to the influence of the natural environment below the planned value of the previous day.

[0005] In view of the above circumstances, an object of the present invention is to provide a technique for suppressing a decrease in the amount of electricity generated by power generation that combines power generation using natural energy.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0006] One aspect of the present invention is a power generation system including a natural energy generator that generates electricity using natural energy and a stable power generator that generates electricity more stably than the natural energy generator, comprising: determination means for determining the amount of power generated by the stable power generator to a normal power generation amount which is less than the maximum amount of power that the stable power generator can generate, before the start of the planned power generation period which is the period during which power generation is performed by the natural energy generator and the stable power generator; determination means for determining whether the amount of power generated by the natural energy generator during the planned power generation period is less than the planned value; and if the determination means determines that it is less, from the planned value the amount of power generated by the natural energy generator The power generation system includes a control means for controlling the stable power generation device so that the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device becomes the normal power generation amount determined by the determination means, so that it can generate at least a portion of the power which is the amount obtained by subtracting the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device from the planned value of the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device, wherein the normal power generation amount is less than the stable power generation amount which is the amount obtained by subtracting from the planned value of the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device from the maximum amount of power that the stable power generation device can generate, and the actual amount of power generated by the natural power generation device in the past is less than the planned value of the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device. [Effects of the Invention]

[0007] This invention makes it possible to suppress the decrease in the amount of electricity generated by power generation that uses renewable energy in combination with other methods. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0008] [Figure 1] An explanatory diagram illustrating the outline of the power generation system 100 of the embodiment. [Figure 2] An explanatory diagram illustrating the first difference estimator in the embodiment. [Figure 3] A diagram showing an example of the magnitude of fluctuations in the amount of power generated each month by the natural power generation device 11 in the embodiment. [Figure 4] A diagram showing an example of the amount of electricity generated by the natural power generation device 11 in summer and winter in the embodiment. [Figure 5]This figure shows an example of the stable power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 in summer and in winter according to the embodiment. [Figure 6] This figure shows an example of the system plan values ​​for summer and winter generated by the power generation system 100 of the embodiment. [Figure 7] This figure shows an example of the relationship between the power generated by the power generation system 100 of the embodiment and the power determined by the power generation control device 3. [Figure 8] A diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment. [Figure 9] A diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the control unit 31 in the embodiment. [Figure 10] A first flowchart showing an example of the processing flow executed by the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment before the start of the scheduled power generation period. [Figure 11] A second flowchart showing an example of the processing flow executed by the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment before the start of the scheduled power generation period. [Figure 12] A flowchart showing an example of the processing flow executed by the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment during the scheduled power generation period. [Figure 13] A diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the control unit 31a in a modified example. [Modes for carrying out the invention]

[0009] (Embodiment) Figure 1 is an explanatory diagram illustrating the outline of the power generation system 100 according to the embodiment. The power generation system 100 comprises a natural power generation facility 1, a stable power generation facility 2, a power generation control device 3, and a battery 4. Note that the power generation system 100 does not necessarily need to include the battery 4. For the sake of simplicity, the power generation system 100 will be described below using the case where the power generation system 100 includes the battery 4 as an example.

[0010] The natural power generation facility 1 is a power generation facility including a natural power generation device 11, a sensor 12, and a communication device 13. The natural power generation device 11 generates electricity using natural energy such as solar power generation or wind power generation. The sensor 12 acquires information indicating the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 by measurement. The communication device 13 is communicably connected to the power generation control device 3 and transmits information indicating the power generation amount acquired by the sensor 12 (hereinafter referred to as "natural power generation amount information") to the power generation control device 3. Instructions for operations such as the start or end of power generation of the natural power generation device 11 may be transmitted from the power generation control device 3 via the communication device 13. Thus, the natural power generation facility 1 is communicably connected to the power generation control device 3 via the communication device 13.

[0011] Since the natural power generation device 11 generates electricity using natural energy, the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 at each time depends on the state of the natural environment such as climate. The electricity generated by the natural power generation device 11 is supplied to an external power grid.

[0012] The stable power generation facility 2 is a power generation facility including a stable power generation device 21 and a communication device 22. The stable power generation device 21 generates electricity that is less dependent on the state of the natural environment, such as thermal power generation or biomass power generation. The communication device 22 is communicably connected to the power generation control device 3. The operation of the stable power generation device 21 is controlled by the power generation control device 3 via the communication device 22. Thus, the stable power generation facility 2 is communicably connected to the power generation control device 3 via the communication device 22. Note that being less dependent on the state of the natural environment means that the influence of the state of the natural environment on the power generation amount is relatively smaller than the influence of the state of the natural environment on the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11. Therefore, the stable power generation device 21 is a device that generates electricity more stably than the natural power generation device 11.

[0013] The electricity generated by the stable power generation device 21 is supplied to an external power grid. The stable power generation facility 2 is, for example, a thermal power generation facility. The stable power generation facility 2 is, for example, a waste treatment facility. The stable power generation facility 2 may be, for example, a biomass power generation facility. The stable power generation device 21 is, for example, a device that performs geothermal power generation.

[0014] The power generation control device 3 controls the operation of the power generation system 100. More specifically, the power generation control device 3 controls, for example, the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21. When the power generation system 100 includes the battery 4, the power generation control device 3 controls the power output by the battery 4. The battery 4 is a battery capable of outputting power and is a battery whose operation is controlled by the power generation control device 3. The power generation control device 3 controls the battery 4, specifically, controls the on and off states of the energization state of the battery 4.

[0015] The power generation control device 3 performs preprocessing in advance before the start of the power generation scheduled period. The preprocessing is a process of estimating the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 based on at least information indicating the state of the natural environment (hereinafter referred to as "natural environment information"). The power generation scheduled period is a period in which power generation by the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21 is scheduled. By executing the preprocessing, the power generation control device 3 obtains an estimation result of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 (hereinafter referred to as "the determined power generation estimation amount"). Also, by executing the preprocessing, the power generation control device 3 estimates the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the determined power generation estimation amount.

[0016] The actual amount means the amount obtained by the sensor 12 through measurement during the power generation scheduled period, rather than the amount estimated by the power generation control device 3 before the start of the power generation scheduled period. Hereinafter, the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 during the power generation scheduled period is referred to as the actual natural power generation amount. The power generation amount acquired by the sensor 12 is the actual natural power generation amount. Therefore, the content indicated by the natural power generation amount information is the actual natural power generation amount.

[0017] Also, by executing the preprocessing, the power generation control device 3 determines the amount of power (hereinafter referred to as "the normal power generation amount") to be generated by the stable power generation device 21 until a situation where the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is less than the determined power generation estimation amount occurs. The normal power generation amount satisfies either one or both of the conditions that it is less than the maximum amount of power that the stable power generation device 21 can generate and that it is less than the rated amount of power that the stable power generation device 21 can generate.

[0018] During the planned power generation period, the power generation control device 3 executes power generation control processing. Based on the natural power generation amount information, the power generation control processing causes the stable power generation device 21 to generate power at the normal amount until a situation arises where the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is less than the determined estimated power generation amount.

[0019] Thus, the determined power generation estimate is the criterion quantity that causes the operation of the stable power generation device 21 to change. Therefore, the determined power generation estimate is the planned value of the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 so as not to change the operation of the stable power generation device 21.

[0020] The planned value is, more specifically, a quantity estimated by the power generation control device 3, and is the amount of power generation planned for the planned power generation period before the start of the planned power generation period. The determined power generation estimate is a type of planned value. More specifically, the determined power generation estimate is the planned value of the power generation of the natural power generation device 11.

[0021] Furthermore, since the power output of the stabilizing power generator 21 is predetermined to be lower, the stabilizing power generator 21 can increase its output to mitigate any shortfall if the actual amount of natural power generated falls short of the planned output of the natural power generator 11. In other words, the stabilizing power generator 21 can generate electricity to mitigate any shortfall if the actual amount of natural power generated falls short of the planned output of the natural power generator 11. Therefore, the power generation control device 3 increases the power output of the stabilizing power generator 21 if the amount of power generated by the natural power generator 11 is less than the planned output during the planned power generation period. In this way, the power generation control device 3 suppresses the decrease in the amount of electricity generated by the power generation system 100.

[0022] Furthermore, the power generation control device 3 performs scheduled information output processing. Scheduled information output processing is the process of outputting information obtained from the information acquired through pre-processing at a timing prior to the start of the scheduled power generation period and satisfying predetermined conditions (hereinafter referred to as "scheduled information") to a predetermined output destination before the start of the scheduled power generation period. Scheduled information may, for example, be information showing the sum of the determined estimated power generation amount and the normal power generation amount. Scheduled information may also show the normal power generation amount.

[0023] The designated recipient of the output is, for example, a designated organization that manages electricity. The designated organization that manages electricity is, for example, the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators. The timing at which the designated conditions are met is, specifically, the timing set by the recipient of the scheduled information output. The timing at which the designated conditions are met is, for example, the day before the scheduled power generation period. The scheduled information submitted to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators is submitted, for example, as a plan for the day before.

[0024] The schedule information output process may be executed before all pre-processing is completed. For example, the schedule information output process may be executed after the first power generation schedule process, described later, is executed on the day before the start of the power generation schedule period. In such cases, the schedule information output process outputs the results obtained in the first power generation schedule process as schedule information.

[0025] Below, an example of such a power generation control device 3 will be explained in more detail, using Figures 2 to 12 in addition to Figure 1.

[0026] The power generation control device 3 performs the following: first power generation scheduling, second power generation scheduling, scheduling determination, and scheduling information output. The first power generation scheduling, second power generation scheduling, and scheduling determination are examples of processes performed in the pre-processing. First, the first power generation scheduling will be explained.

[0027] The first power generation planning process includes the first natural power generation state estimation process and the first stable power generation candidate amount determination process. The first natural power generation state estimation process includes the first power generation amount estimation process and the first difference amount estimation process.

[0028] The first power generation estimation process is a process that estimates the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 at each time point during the planned power generation period, based on the first estimation factor information described later. Hereinafter, the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 estimated by the execution of the first power generation estimation process, for each time point during the planned power generation period, will be referred to as the first power generation estimate.

[0029] The planned power generation period is, for example, the day after the first planned power generation process is executed. Alternatively, the planned power generation period may be, for example, one week after the first planned power generation process is executed.

[0030] The first difference estimator estimation process is a process that estimates the first difference estimator at each time point in the planned power generation period based on the first estimation factor information. The first difference estimator is a quantity that represents the difference between the estimated actual natural power generation and the first power generation estimate, and is a quantity for each time point in the planned power generation period. The first difference estimator is represented, for example, by the absolute value of the difference between the estimated actual natural power generation and the first power generation estimate. The first difference estimator may also be represented, for example, by the dispersion of the power generation distribution. In this case, the first power generation estimate is a representative value of the power generation.

[0031] The first stable power generation candidate amount determination process is a process that determines the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device 21 during the planned power generation period, based on the first power generation estimate and the first difference estimate. More specifically, the first stable power generation candidate amount determination process is a process that determines the first stable power generation candidate amount based on the estimation results of the first natural power generation state estimation process. The first stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the first difference estimate from the maximum amount of power that the stable power generation device 21 can generate.

[0032] The first estimation factor information is information used to estimate the first power generation estimate and the first difference estimate, and includes at least the first natural environment information. The first natural environment information is an example of natural environment information.

[0033] The first natural environment information is information that indicates either or both of the state of the natural environment at a time that satisfies a predetermined first timing condition, and the estimated state of the natural environment during the planned power generation period. The first timing condition includes the condition that it is before the start time of the planned power generation period. The state of the natural environment may be indicated by, for example, temperature, solar radiation, cloud cover, or information representing the season. The state of the natural environment may also be indicated by, for example, the altitude or angle of the sun. That is, the information indicating the state of the natural environment may include, for example, temperature, solar radiation, cloud cover, information representing the season, or information indicating the altitude or angle of the sun. The information indicating the state of the natural environment may also include, for example, time. The state of the natural environment may be, for example, hourly temperature, hourly solar radiation, hourly cloud cover, or hourly altitude or angle of the sun. The information indicating the state of the natural environment may also include, for example, sunrise or sunset times. The information indicating the state of the natural environment may also include, for example, daily sunshine hours.

[0034] The first timing condition is, for example, the day before the start of the planned power generation period. The first timing condition may also be, for example, one week before the start of the planned power generation period.

[0035] Therefore, the first natural environment information is, for example, information indicating the state of the natural environment during the planned power generation period. Information indicating the state of the natural environment during the planned power generation period is, for example, the weather estimation results for the planned power generation period announced by a weather estimation organization such as the Japan Meteorological Agency. The first natural environment information may also be, for example, information indicating the season of the planned power generation period, such as whether it is summer or winter. The first natural environment information may also include, for example, information indicating the state of the natural environment immediately before the execution of the first power generation planning process.

[0036] For the sake of simplicity, the following explanation of the power generation system 100 will be based on the example where the first natural environment information includes information indicating whether or not the planned power generation period falls within the summer. In the summer, the temporal fluctuation of the intensity of sunlight is greater than in other seasons, and therefore the temporal fluctuation of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is greater than in other seasons. Larger fluctuation means that the dispersion of the power generation amount is greater.

[0037] Thus, the first power generation schedule processing is a process that estimates the first estimated power generation amount and the first estimated difference amount, and determines the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device 21 during the power generation schedule period, based on the first estimated factor information.

[0038] More specifically, the first natural power generation state estimation process is a process that uses pre-obtained first relational information to estimate the first power generation estimate and the first difference estimate, based on the first estimation factor information.

[0039] The first relational information includes information showing the relationship between the content of the first natural environment information and the time series of actual natural power generation during the planned power generation period (hereinafter referred to as "first power generation estimate relational information"). The first relational information also includes information showing the relationship between the content of the first natural environment information and the time series of the difference between the power generation amount at each time shown in the first power generation estimate relational information and the estimated actual natural power generation amount at each time during the planned power generation period (hereinafter referred to as "first difference estimate relational information"). Note that the power generation amount at each time shown in the first power generation estimate relational information is prior information obtained in advance, and the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the planned power generation period is the actual power generation amount. Therefore, the power generation amount at each time shown in the first power generation estimate relational information may be information obtained by mathematical models such as simulations. On the other hand, the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the planned power generation period must be measured values, not information obtained by mathematical models.

[0040] Figure 2 is an explanatory diagram illustrating the first difference estimator in the embodiment. The horizontal axis of Figure 2 represents the time of day from 3:00 AM to 9:00 PM. The vertical axis of Figure 2 represents the amount of power generated. Figure 2 shows examples of the first power generation estimator and the first power generation difference estimator. Figure 2 also shows the actual power generation. The first power generation difference estimator can be obtained, for example, as the prediction interval range in regression analysis. Note that the power generation target curve shown in Figure 2 is an example of the first power generation estimator. Note that the prediction interval range indicates "within the range in which future predicted values ​​are predicted to be."

[0041] The first relational information is, for example, a mathematical model obtained in advance by machine learning methods, which is a mathematical model that shows the relationship between the content indicated by the first natural environment information and the representative value and dispersion of the distribution of power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 in each divided period that divides the planned power generation period.

[0042] A machine learning method used to obtain the first relational information may be, for example, regression analysis. Alternatively, a random forest may be used as the machine learning method used to obtain the first relational information.

[0043] The first power generation estimate relation information may be, for example, a relational database showing the relationship between the content indicated by the first natural environment information and the time series of the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 during the planned power generation period. The first difference estimate relation information may also be, for example, a relational database showing the relationship between the content indicated by the first natural environment information and the time series of the difference between the amount of power generated at each time point indicated by the first power generation estimate relation information and the actual amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 at each time point during the planned power generation period. Next, the second power generation planning process will be explained.

[0044] The second power generation planning process includes the second natural power generation state estimation process and the second stable power generation candidate amount determination process. The second natural power generation state estimation process includes the second power generation amount estimation process and the second difference amount estimation process.

[0045] The second power generation estimation process is a process that estimates the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 at each time point during the planned power generation period, based on the second estimation factor information described later. Hereinafter, the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 estimated by the execution of the second power generation estimation process, for each time point during the planned power generation period, will be referred to as the second power generation estimate.

[0046] The second difference estimator estimation process is a process that estimates the second difference estimator at each time point in the planned power generation period based on the second estimation factor information. The second difference estimator is a quantity that represents the difference between the estimated actual natural power generation and the second power generation estimate, and is a quantity for each time point in the planned power generation period. The second difference estimator is represented, for example, by the absolute value of the difference between the estimated actual natural power generation and the second power generation estimate. The second difference estimator may also be represented, for example, by the dispersion of the power generation distribution. In this case, the second power generation estimate is a representative value of the power generation.

[0047] The second stable power generation candidate amount determination process is a process that determines the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device 21 during the planned power generation period, based on the second power generation estimate and the second difference estimate. More specifically, the second stable power generation candidate amount determination process is a process that determines the second stable power generation candidate amount based on the estimation results of the second natural power generation state estimation process. The second stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the second difference estimate from the maximum amount of power that the stable power generation device 21 can generate.

[0048] The second estimation factor information is information used to estimate the second power generation estimate and the second difference estimate, and includes at least the second natural environment information. The second natural environment information is an example of natural environment information.

[0049] The second natural environment information is information indicating the state of the natural environment at a time when a predetermined second timing condition is met. The second timing condition includes the condition that it is before the start time of the planned power generation period and closer to the start time of the planned power generation period than the time when the first timing condition is met. The state of the natural environment may be indicated by, for example, temperature, solar radiation, cloud cover, or information representing the season. In other words, the information indicating the state of the natural environment may include, for example, temperature, solar radiation, cloud cover, or information representing the season.

[0050] The second timing condition is, for example, one hour before the start time of the planned power generation period. The second timing condition may also be, for example, a time before the start of the day that the planned power generation period begins. The time before the start of the day that the planned power generation period begins is, for example, a time between 6:00 AM and 8:00 AM.

[0051] For the sake of simplicity, the following explanation of the power generation system 100 will be based on the example where the second timing condition is one hour before the start of the planned power generation period, and the second natural environment information indicates the season, solar radiation, and cloud cover at the time when the second timing condition is met.

[0052] More specifically, the second natural power generation state estimation process is a process that uses the second relationship information obtained in advance to estimate the second power generation estimate and the second difference estimate, based on the second estimation factor information.

[0053] The second relational information includes information showing the relationship between the content of the second natural environment information and the time series of actual natural power generation during the planned power generation period (hereinafter referred to as "second power generation estimate relational information"). The second relational information also includes information showing the relationship between the content of the second natural environment information and the time series of the difference between the power generation amount at each time shown in the second power generation estimate relational information and the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the planned power generation period (hereinafter referred to as "second difference estimate relational information"). Note that the power generation amount at each time shown in the second power generation estimate relational information is prior information obtained in advance, and the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the planned power generation period is the actual power generation amount. Therefore, the power generation amount at each time shown in the second power generation estimate relational information may be information obtained by mathematical models such as simulations. On the other hand, the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the planned power generation period must be measured values, not information obtained by mathematical models.

[0054] The second relational information is, for example, a mathematical model obtained in advance by machine learning methods, which is a mathematical model that shows the relationship between the content indicated by the second natural environment information and the representative value and dispersion of the distribution of power generation from the natural power generation device 11 in each divided period that divides the planned power generation period.

[0055] A machine learning method used to obtain second relational information is, for example, regression analysis. Alternatively, a random forest could also be used.

[0056] The second power generation estimate relation information may be a relational database showing, for example, the relationship between the content indicated by the second natural environment information and the time series of the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 during the planned power generation period. The second difference estimate relation information may also be a relational database showing, for example, the relationship between the content indicated by the second natural environment information and the time series of the difference between the amount of power generated at each time shown by the second power generation estimate relation information and the actual amount of natural power generated at each time during the planned power generation period. The first relation information and the second relation information may be different or the same.

[0057] The schedule determination process includes the estimated natural power generation state determination process and the stable power generation amount determination process. The estimated natural power generation state determination process is the process of determining which result of the first estimate or the second estimate to set as the determined estimate for the planned power generation period, based on the difference between the first estimate and the second estimate (hereinafter referred to as the "scheduled error").

[0058] The first estimator is a quantity that represents the first estimated power generation and the first difference estimator. The second estimator is a quantity that represents the second estimated power generation and the second difference estimator. The determined estimator is a quantity that represents the determined estimated power generation and the determined difference estimator. Setting a value as the determined estimator means recording the value as the determined estimator in a predetermined storage device such as the memory unit 34 described later. The set value is the value that is planned as the amount of power generated during the planned power generation period.

[0059] A determined difference estimator is a quantity that satisfies the following conditions: it is the first difference estimator if the first estimator is determined to be the determined estimator, and it is the second difference estimator if the second estimator is determined to be the determined estimator.

[0060] In the process of determining the estimated natural power generation state, if the expected error is less than or equal to a predetermined standard, the first estimator is set as the estimator to be determined. On the other hand, in the process of determining the estimated natural power generation state, if the expected error is greater than a predetermined standard, the second estimator is set as the estimator to be determined.

[0061] Thus, the process for determining the estimated natural power generation state is a process that determines the determined power generation estimate and the determined difference estimate based on the planned error. Furthermore, since the determined estimate is either the first estimate or the second estimate, the determined power generation estimate is either the first power generation estimate or the second power generation estimate. Therefore, the determined power generation estimate is also the amount estimated as the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 during the planned power generation period.

[0062] The stable power generation amount determination process is a process that determines, based on the planned error, which result—the first stable power generation candidate amount or the second stable power generation candidate amount—to set as the stable power generation amount for the planned power generation period. Details of the stable power generation amount will be described later. Setting a value as the stable power generation amount means recording the value as the stable power generation amount in a predetermined storage device such as the memory unit 34, which will be described later.

[0063] In the stable power generation amount determination process, if the planned error is less than or equal to a predetermined difference, the first stable power generation candidate amount is set as the stable power generation amount. On the other hand, if the planned error is greater than a predetermined difference, the second stable power generation candidate amount is set as the stable power generation amount. Thus, the stable power generation amount is either the first stable power generation candidate amount or the second stable power generation candidate amount.

[0064] <Explanation of stable power generation amount> Let's explain the stable power generation amount. As mentioned above, the first stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the first difference estimate from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. The first difference estimate is the amount that shows the difference between the estimated actual natural power generation amount and the first power generation estimate, and it is the amount for each time point in the planned power generation period. Therefore, the first stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the first power generation estimate from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. When the stable power generation amount is set to the first stable power generation candidate amount, the first power generation estimate is the planned power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11. Therefore, when the stable power generation amount is set to the first stable power generation candidate amount, the stable power generation amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the planned power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate.

[0065] Furthermore, as described above, the second stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the second difference estimate from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. The second difference estimate is the amount that shows the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the second power generation estimate. Therefore, the second stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the second power generation estimate from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. When the stable power generation amount is set to the second stable power generation candidate amount, the second power generation estimate is the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11. Therefore, when the stable power generation amount is set to the second stable power generation candidate amount, the stable power generation amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate.

[0066] Thus, the stable power generation amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the planned power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. Therefore, the stable power generation amount is an example of normal power generation.

[0067] Furthermore, the stable power generation device 21, which generates a stable amount of power, is in a state where it can generate power to compensate for any shortfall if the actual amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 does not reach the planned amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11.

[0068] Thus, the stable power generation amount determination process is a process that determines the stable power generation amount based on the planned error. Furthermore, as mentioned above, the first stable power generation candidate amount is the result obtained based on the first difference estimate, and the second stable power generation candidate amount is the result obtained based on the second difference estimate. Therefore, the stable power generation amount determination process is also a process that determines the stable power generation amount based on the planned error and the difference estimate to be determined.

[0069] Thus, the plan determination process is a process that determines the estimated amount of power to be determined and the stable amount of power to be generated based on the plan error. In the plan determination process, if the plan error is less than or equal to a predetermined difference, the first estimated amount of power to be determined is set as the estimated amount of power to be determined and the first candidate amount of stable power to be generated is set as the stable amount of power to be generated. On the other hand, in the plan determination process, if the plan error is greater than a predetermined difference, the second estimated amount of power to be determined is set as the estimated amount of power to be determined and the second candidate amount of stable power to be generated is set as the stable amount of power to be generated.

[0070] <Explanation of the relationship between the content of the decision made by the scheduling process and the control by the power generation control device 3> As described above, the first natural environment information is information that shows either or both of the state of the natural environment at the timing that satisfies the predetermined first timing condition, and the estimated state of the natural environment during the planned power generation period. On the other hand, the second natural environment information is information that shows either or both of the state of the natural environment at the timing that satisfies the predetermined second timing condition, and the measured state of the natural environment during the planned power generation period.

[0071] Furthermore, the timing that satisfies the first timing condition is earlier in the planned power generation period than the timing that satisfies the second timing condition. Therefore, the second estimate, estimated using information on the timing that satisfies the second timing condition, is more likely to actually occur than the first estimate, estimated using information on the timing that satisfies the first timing condition. This is also true for the relationship between the first estimate, determined using the estimated state of the natural environment during the planned power generation period, and the second estimate, determined using the measured results of the timing that satisfies the second timing condition.

[0072] In other words, the second estimate, estimated using the results of actual measurements at the timing that satisfies the second timing condition, is more likely to actually occur than the first estimate, estimated using the results of estimates of the state of the natural environment during the planned power generation period. Therefore, the second estimate, estimated by the second power generation planning process using the second natural environment information, is more likely to actually occur than the first estimate, estimated by the first power generation planning process using the first natural environment information.

[0073] Therefore, the power generation control device 3 controls the operation of the stabilizing power generation device 21 to generate power at the amount determined by the second power generation planning process if the planned error is greater than a predetermined difference, thereby performing control that is more likely to be realized.

[0074] <Explanation of the relationship between the efficiency of using the stabilizing power generation device 21 and the control by the power generation control device 3> This section explains the relationship between the efficiency of using the stabilizing power generation device 21 and the control by the power generation control device 3. More specifically, it explains the relationship between the operating efficiency of the stabilizing power generation device 21 and the control by the power generation control device 3. Operating efficiency is the actual amount of power generated relative to the maximum amount of power that power generation devices such as the natural power generation device 11 and the stabilizing power generation device 21 can generate. The lower the operating efficiency, the more surplus power generation facilities have in terms of generating electricity. However, low operating efficiency also means that the power generation facilities are not being utilized as much as when the operating efficiency is high.

[0075] Therefore, the operating efficiency of the stabilizing power generation device 21 should be as high as possible within the range that allows for a stable supply of system power generation. A stable supply of power means that the amount of power supplied is always above the planned value. System power generation refers to the amount of power generated by the entire power generation system 100. More specifically, it is the sum of the power generated by the natural power generation device 11, the stabilizing power generation device 21, and the battery 4.

[0076] Therefore, the power generation control device 3 controls the operation of the stable power generation device 21 to be less efficient than during other periods, such as during the summer when the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 fluctuates greatly in the time axis direction. When the amount of power generated fluctuates greatly in the time axis direction, the natural power generation device 11 is frequently unable to generate the power of the estimated amount of power to be determined.

[0077] In such cases, if the stabilizing power generator 21 has surplus capacity for generating electricity, the amount of electricity shortage can be compensated for by increasing the amount of electricity generated by the stabilizing power generator 21. For this reason, the power generation control device 3 performs control to lower the target operating efficiency of the stabilizing power generator 21 in advance during periods when the amount of electricity generated fluctuates greatly in the time axis direction.

[0078] Furthermore, the external power grid to which the electricity is supplied is generally equipped with energy storage devices such as batteries, and has the function of storing excess electricity. Therefore, the power generation control device 3 does not need to perform control to prevent the total amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21 from exceeding the system planned value.

[0079] <Regarding control by power generation control device 3 during the planned power generation period> The first power generation schedule processing, the second power generation schedule processing, the schedule information output processing, and the schedule determination processing are processes that are executed before the start of the scheduled power generation period. The power generation control device 3 operates not only before the start of the scheduled power generation period but also during the scheduled power generation period. During the scheduled power generation period, the power generation control device 3 performs monitoring processing and compensation control processing at predetermined intervals. Monitoring processing and compensation control processing are examples of processes performed in the power generation control processing.

[0080] The monitoring process involves monitoring the amount of electricity generated by at least the natural power generation device 11. More specifically, the monitoring process involves acquiring natural power generation information and, based on the acquired natural power generation information, determining whether the amount of electricity generated by the natural power generation device 11 is less than the estimated amount of electricity to be determined.

[0081] The compensation control process is a process in which, if the monitoring process determines that the actual amount of natural power generated is less than the estimated amount of power to be determined, the power compensation device is instructed to perform a process to compensate for the shortage in the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11. The shortage in the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 is the difference between the amount of power generated indicated by the natural power generation information (i.e., the actual amount of natural power generated) and the estimated amount of power to be determined.

[0082] The power compensation device is a device capable of outputting power other than that of the natural power generation device 11 and is a device that generates power that is less dependent on the state of the natural environment. The power compensation device is, for example, a stable power generation device 21. The power compensation device may also be, for example, the battery 4 if the power generation system 100 is equipped with a battery 4.

[0083] More specifically, the compensation control process is a process that controls the operation of the power compensation device when the actual amount of power generated by the natural power generator 11 is less than the estimated amount of power to be determined, thereby increasing the power generated by the power compensation device by at least the amount obtained by subtracting the actual amount of natural power generated from the estimated amount of power to be determined (hereinafter referred to as the "estimation error"). The estimation error can be expressed in any way as long as it shows the amount obtained by subtracting the actual amount of natural power generated from the estimated amount of power to be determined, for example, it can be expressed as the absolute value of the amount obtained by subtracting the actual amount of power generated by the natural power generator 11 from the planned amount of power generated by the natural power generator 11.

[0084] Furthermore, if the actual amount of natural power generated is less than the estimated amount of power to be determined, the power generation control device 3 does not necessarily need to increase the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device 21 by more than the estimation error of the system power generation. The power generation control device 3 may, for example, cause the battery 4 to output power by switching its energized state from off to on, and control the operation of the stable power generation device 21 so that the sum of the power output by the battery 4 and the increase in the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device 21 is equal to the system power generation.

[0085] Using Figures 3 to 7, we will explain the amount of power generated by each power generation device when the natural power generation device 11 is a power generation device that generates electricity using sunlight and the stable power generation device 21 is a power generation device that generates electricity using biomass.

[0086] Figure 3 shows an example of the magnitude of the estimation error for the monthly power generation of the natural power generation device 11 in the embodiment. The horizontal axis of Figure 3 represents each month from January to December. The vertical axis of Figure 3 shows the estimation error. Figure 3 shows that the estimation error is larger in summer months such as June and July than in winter months such as December and January.

[0087] Figure 4 shows an example of the amount of electricity generated by the natural power generation device 11 in summer and winter according to the embodiment. More specifically, Figure 4 shows an example of the amount of electricity generated in summer and winter, with the natural power generation device 11 generating electricity using sunlight. The horizontal axis of Figure 4 represents the time of day from 3 a.m. to 9 p.m. The vertical axis of Figure 4 represents the amount of electricity generated by the natural power generation device 11. Figure 4 shows that the amount of electricity generated by the natural power generation device 11 is greater in summer than in winter.

[0088] Figure 5 shows an example of the stable power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 in summer and winter according to the embodiment. More specifically, Figure 5 shows an example of the power generation amount in summer and winter, with the case where the stable power generation device 21 generates power using biomass. The horizontal axis of Figure 5 represents the time of day from 3 a.m. to 9 p.m. The vertical axis of Figure 5 represents the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21.

[0089] Figure 5 shows that in the summer there are periods when the power output of the stabilizing power generator 21 is lower than in the winter. As shown in Figure 3, the power output of the natural power generator 11 fluctuates more in the summer than in the winter. Therefore, in the summer the power output of the natural power generator 11 may fall below the target. Accordingly, as shown in Figure 5, there are periods in the summer when the power output of the stabilizing power generator 21 is set lower than in the winter.

[0090] Figure 6 shows an example of the system plan values ​​for summer and winter generated by the power generation system 100 of the embodiment. More specifically, Figure 6 is a graph showing the sum of the graphs shown in Figure 4 and Figure 5. The horizontal axis of Figure 6 represents the time of day from 3 a.m. to 9 p.m. The vertical axis of Figure 6 represents the sum of the power generated by the natural power generation device 11 and the power generated by the stable power generation device 21. Figure 6 shows that, with the control shown in Figure 5, approximately the same amount of power was obtained in both summer and winter.

[0091] Figure 7 shows an example of the relationship between the power generated by the power generation system 100 of the embodiment and the power determined by the power generation control device 3. The horizontal axis of Figure 7 represents the time from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. of a day. The vertical axis of Figure 7 represents the amount of power generated. The period from time t1 shown in Figure 7 onwards is the planned power generation period. The “predicted value” in Figure 7 represents the sum of the first estimated power generation amount and the first stable power generation candidate amount. The “corrected value” in Figure 7 represents the sum of the second estimated power generation amount and the second stable power generation candidate amount. The “actual power generation value” in Figure 7 represents the actual natural power generation amount. The “stable power supply prediction control value” in Figure 7 represents the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device 21 out of the system power generation amount. The “storage charge / discharge” in Figure 7 represents the amount of power generated by the battery 4 out of the system power generation amount.

[0092] As shown in Figure 3, when the natural power generation device 11 is a power generation device that uses sunlight to generate electricity, the estimation error is larger in summer than in winter. Therefore, the stable power generation amount determined by the execution of the first power generation schedule processing, the second power generation schedule processing, and the schedule determination processing is less in summer than in winter, as shown in Figure 5. This difference in stable power generation amount depending on the period is not limited to the relationship between summer and winter, but is common to the relationship between the period in which the estimation error is relatively large (hereinafter referred to as "the first period") and the period in which the estimation error is relatively small (hereinafter referred to as "the second period"). Furthermore, this is common not only to stable power generation amount but also to normal power generation amount.

[0093] In this way, the power generation control device 3 controls the operation of the stable power generation device 21 so that the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 in the first period is less than the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 in the second period. This process is not performed only when the first power generation scheduling process, the second power generation scheduling process, the scheduling decision process, the monitoring process, and the compensation control process are executed, but is a process common when the pre-processing and power generation control processes are performed.

[0094] Figure 8 shows an example of the hardware configuration of the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment. The power generation control device 3 includes a control unit 31 which has a processor 91 such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and memory 92 connected by a bus, and executes a program. The power generation control device 3 functions as a device comprising the control unit 31, communication unit 32, input unit 33, storage unit 34 and output unit 35 by executing the program.

[0095] More specifically, the power generation control device 3 reads a program stored in the storage unit 34 by the processor 91 and stores the read program in the memory 92. By the processor 91 executing the program stored in the memory 92, the power generation control device 3 functions as a device comprising a control unit 31, a communication unit 32, an input unit 33, a storage unit 34, and an output unit 35.

[0096] The control unit 31 controls the operation of various functional units of the power generation control device 3. For example, the control unit 31 performs a first power generation schedule process. For example, the control unit 31 performs a second power generation schedule process. For example, the control unit 31 performs a schedule determination process. For example, the control unit 31 performs a monitoring process. For example, the control unit 31 performs a compensation control process.

[0097] The control unit 31 controls, for example, the operation of the output unit 35. The control unit 31 causes the output unit 35 to output scheduled information by controlling the operation of the output unit 35. The process by which the control unit 31 controls the operation of the output unit 35 to output scheduled information is an example of a scheduled information output process.

[0098] The control unit 31 records various information generated by, for example, the execution of the first power generation schedule processing, the second power generation schedule processing, the schedule determination processing, the monitoring processing, or the compensation control processing in the storage unit 34. The control unit 31 also records various information input to, for example, the communication unit 32 or the input unit 33 in the storage unit 34.

[0099] The communication unit 32 is configured to include a communication interface for connecting the power generation control device 3 to an external device. The communication unit 32 communicates with the external device via wired or wireless means. The external device is, for example, a natural power generation facility 1. The external device is, for example, a stable power generation facility 2. The external device is, for example, a device that transmits first estimated factor information. The external device is, for example, a device that transmits second estimated factor information.

[0100] The source device for transmitting the first estimated factor information is, for example, a server of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The source device for transmitting the second estimated factor information is, for example, a server of the Japan Meteorological Agency.

[0101] The communication unit 32 acquires information output by an external device through communication with the external device. The information output by the external device is, for example, information on the amount of natural power generation. The amount of natural power generation information is acquired through communication with the natural power generation facility 1. The information output by the external device is, for example, information on the first estimation factor. The information output by the external device is, for example, information on the second estimation factor. The communication unit 32 controls the operation of the external device by transmitting control signals, which are signals that control the operation of the external device it communicates with, through communication with the external device. The external device whose operation is controlled by the communication unit 32 is, for example, the stable power generation device 21.

[0102] The input unit 33 includes input devices such as a mouse, keyboard, or touch panel. The input unit 33 may also be configured as an interface for connecting these input devices to the power generation control device 3. The input unit 33 receives various types of information input to the power generation control device 3. For example, the input unit 33 receives an instruction to start the first power generation schedule process. For example, the input unit 33 receives an instruction to start the second power generation schedule process. For example, the input unit 33 receives an instruction to start the schedule determination process. For example, the input unit 33 receives an instruction to start the monitoring process.

[0103] The storage unit 34 is configured using a computer-readable storage medium device such as a magnetic hard disk drive or a semiconductor memory device. The storage unit 34 stores first relational information in advance. The storage unit 34 stores second relational information in advance.

[0104] The memory unit 34 stores various information relating to the power generation system 100, including the power generation control device 3 itself. The memory unit 34 stores information input via, for example, the communication unit 32 or the input unit 33. The memory unit 34 also stores various information generated by, for example, the execution of processing by the control unit 31.

[0105] Furthermore, the first estimation factor information, the second estimation factor information, or the amount of natural power generation information does not necessarily have to be input only to the communication unit 32. The first estimation factor information, the second estimation factor information, or the amount of natural power generation information may also be input to the input unit 33.

[0106] The output unit 35 outputs various types of information. The output unit 35 is comprised of a display device such as a CRT (Cathode Ray Tube) display, a liquid crystal display, or an organic EL (Electro-Luminescence) display. The output unit 35 may be configured as an interface for connecting these display devices to the power generation control device 3. The output unit 35 may be comprised of a printer, for example. The output unit 35 outputs information input to the input unit 33, for example. The output unit 35 may display the results of processing performed by the control unit 31, for example. The output unit 35 outputs schedule information, for example.

[0107] Figure 9 shows an example of the functional configuration of the control unit 31 in the embodiment. The control unit 31 comprises a communication control unit 310, an input information acquisition unit 320, a pre-processing execution unit 330, a power generation control processing execution unit 340, an output control unit 350, and a storage control unit 360.

[0108] The communication control unit 310 controls the operation of the communication unit 32. The input information acquisition unit 320 acquires information input to the input unit 33 or the communication unit 32.

[0109] The pre-processing execution unit 330 performs pre-processing. For example, the pre-processing execution unit 330 performs a first power generation schedule process, a second power generation schedule process, and a schedule determination process as pre-processing. The power generation control processing execution unit 340 performs power generation control processing. For example, the power generation control processing execution unit 340 performs monitoring processing and compensation control processing as power generation control processing.

[0110] The output control unit 350 controls the operation of the output unit 35. For example, the output control unit 350 performs scheduled information output processing. By performing scheduled information output processing, the output control unit 350 controls the operation of the output unit 35 and causes the output unit 35 to output scheduled information. The storage control unit 360 records various information in the storage unit 34.

[0111] For the sake of simplicity, the following is an example of the processing flow executed by the power generation control device 3, using the case where the processing executed by the pre-processing execution unit 330 is the first power generation schedule processing, the second power generation schedule processing, and the schedule determination processing as an example. Furthermore, for the sake of simplicity, the following is an example of the processing flow executed by the power generation control device 3, using the case where the processing executed by the power generation control processing execution unit 340 is the monitoring processing and the compensation control processing as an example. Furthermore, for the sake of simplicity, the following is an example of the processing flow executed by the power generation control device 3, using the case where the normal power generation amount is the stable power generation amount as an example.

[0112] Figure 10 is a first flowchart showing an example of the processing flow that the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment executes before the start of the scheduled power generation period. The processing described in Figure 10 is executed at a timing after the timing that satisfies the first timing condition, but before the timing that satisfies the second timing condition.

[0113] The input information acquisition unit 320 acquires the first estimated factor information input to the communication unit 32 or the input unit 33 (step S101). Next, the pre-processing execution unit 330 acquires the first estimated amount and the first stable power generation candidate amount based on the first estimated factor information (step S102). Next, the output control unit 350 controls the operation of the output unit 35 to cause the output unit 35 to output the planned information (step S103).

[0114] Figure 11 is a second flowchart showing an example of the processing flow that the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment executes before the start of the scheduled power generation period. The processing in step S201 is executed after the processing in step S103. The processing described in Figure 11 is executed at a timing after the timing that satisfies the second timing condition, but before the start of the scheduled power generation period.

[0115] The input information acquisition unit 320 acquires the second estimation factor information input to the communication unit 32 or the input unit 33 (step S201). Next, the pre-processing execution unit 330 acquires the second estimated amount and the second stable power generation candidate amount based on the second estimation factor information (step S202). Next, the pre-processing execution unit 330 determines whether the difference between the first estimated amount and the second estimated amount (i.e., the planned error) is below a predetermined standard (step S203).

[0116] More specifically, the difference between the first and second estimators includes the difference between the first and second power generation estimators, and the difference between the first difference estimator and the second difference estimator. The predetermined criterion is, for example, that the difference between the first and second estimators is such that the sum of the norm of the difference between the first and second power generation estimators raised to the power of K (where K is 1 or greater) and the norm of the difference between the first difference estimator and the second difference estimator raised to the power of K (i.e., the sum of squared norms) is greater than or equal to a predetermined value.

[0117] If the estimated error is below a predetermined standard (step S203: YES), the pre-processing execution unit 330 determines the first estimated quantity as the determined estimated quantity and determines the stable power generation quantity as the first stable power generation candidate quantity (step S204). Next, the pre-processing execution unit 330 transmits a control signal to the stable power generation device 21 via the communication control unit 310 to instruct it to generate the stable power generation quantity (step S205). That is, in the control of step S205, the pre-processing execution unit 330 controls the power generation quantity of the stable power generation device 21 to the stable power generation quantity via the communication control unit 310.

[0118] On the other hand, if the estimated error is greater than a predetermined standard (step S203: NO), the pre-processing execution unit 330 determines the second estimated quantity as the determined estimated quantity and determines the stable power generation quantity as the second stable power generation candidate quantity (step S206). The processing in step S205 is executed after the processing in step S206.

[0119] Figure 12 is a flowchart showing an example of the processing flow executed by the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment during the scheduled power generation period. The processing in step S301 is executed after the processing in step S203. The processing described in Figure 12 is executed at a timing after the start of the scheduled power generation period. The processing described in Figure 12 is repeatedly executed at a predetermined cycle during the scheduled power generation period.

[0120] The input information acquisition unit 320 acquires information on the amount of natural power generation (step S301). Next, the power generation control processing execution unit 340 determines whether the actual amount of natural power generation indicated by the information on the amount of natural power generation acquired in step S301 is less than the estimated amount of power generation to be determined in step S204 or step S206 (step S302).

[0121] If the actual amount of natural power generated is less than the estimated amount of power to be determined (step S302: YES), the power generation control processing execution unit 340 transmits a control signal to the stable power generation device 21 via the communication control unit 310 to instruct it to increase the amount of power generated (step S303). That is, in the control of step S303, the power generation control processing execution unit 340 controls the stable power generation device 21 via the communication control unit 310 to increase the amount of power generated to more than the stable amount of power generated. Then the processing of the new step S301 begins.

[0122] On the other hand, if the actual amount of natural power generated is greater than or equal to the estimated amount of power generated (step S302: NO), the process ends. Therefore, the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device 21 is the stable amount of power generated. The end of the process during the planned power generation period means the start of a new step S301.

[0123] In this configured embodiment, the power generation control device 3 includes a pre-processing execution unit 330 and a power generation control processing execution unit 340. Therefore, if the actual amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 during the planned power generation period is less than the estimated amount of power to be determined, the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device 21 can be increased. Consequently, the power generation control device 3 can suppress the decrease in the amount of electricity generated by power generation that also uses natural energy.

[0124] Furthermore, since the power generation control device 3 in this configured embodiment includes a pre-processing execution unit 330 and a power generation control processing execution unit 340, it can suppress the frequency in which the system power generation falls below the system planned value. Therefore, the power generation control device 3 can suppress situations in which the amount of electricity generated by power generation using renewable energy in combination does not reach the target.

[0125] Furthermore, the power generation control device 3 in this configured embodiment includes a pre-processing execution unit 330 and a power generation control processing execution unit 340, which can suppress a decrease in the operating efficiency of the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21. In other words, the power generation control device 3 can also effectively utilize the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21.

[0126] Furthermore, the power generation system 100 of this embodiment includes a pre-processing execution unit 330 and a power generation control processing execution unit 340. Therefore, the power generation system 100 can suppress a decrease in the amount of electricity generated by power generation that also uses renewable energy. In addition, the power generation system 100 can suppress situations in which the amount of electricity generated by power generation that also uses renewable energy does not reach the target. Furthermore, the power generation system 100 can also effectively utilize the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21.

[0127] (modified version) Furthermore, the natural environment information may include information indicating the location of the natural energy generator 11. For example, even if the weather is clear, the intensity of sunlight that the natural energy generator 11 can receive will differ depending on the region. Thus, natural energy may differ depending on the location of the natural energy generator 11. Therefore, if the amount of power generated by the natural energy generator 11 is estimated in the preprocessing stage based on information indicating the location of the natural energy generator 11, a more accurate estimation result can be obtained than an estimation that is not based on information indicating the location of the natural energy generator 11.

[0128] As shown in Figure 3, if the natural power generation device 11 is a power generation device that uses sunlight to generate electricity, the estimation error is larger in summer than in winter. Therefore, the normal amount of power generated, as determined by the pre-processing performed by the pre-processing execution unit 330, is less in summer than in winter, as shown in Figure 5. This difference in normal power generation depending on the period is common not only to the relationship between summer and winter, but also to the relationship between a period in which the estimation error is relatively large (hereinafter referred to as "the first period") and a period in which the estimation error is relatively small (hereinafter referred to as "the second period"). Thus, the pre-processing execution unit 330 controls the operation of the stable power generation device 21 so that the normal amount of power generated by the stable power generation device 21 in the first period is less than the normal amount of power generated by the stable power generation device 21 in the second period.

[0129] Furthermore, the normal amount of electricity generated does not necessarily have to be the stable amount. The normal amount of electricity generated may be lower than the stable amount.

[0130] The pre-processing execution unit 330 may also execute a process to acquire information indicating timing, such as the date, time, or year (hereinafter referred to as "clock information"). The process for acquiring clock information is, for example, performed by the pre-processing execution unit 330 itself executing a counting process. If the timing indicated by the acquired clock information is the timing of the transition from a predetermined first period to a second period, the pre-processing execution unit 330 may change the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 from the normal power generation amount of the first period to the normal power generation amount of the second period.

[0131] Furthermore, power generation using biomass has the characteristic that its power generation efficiency deteriorates if the amount of power generated is changed a predetermined number of times per day. The predetermined number of times is, for example, two or three times. Therefore, when the stable power generation device 21 is generating power using biomass, if the power generation control processing execution unit 340 has increased the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device 21 up to a predetermined number of times and the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 is still insufficient, it may perform alternative compensation processing. Alternative compensation processing is a process in which, instead of increasing the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device 21, the amount of power generated by other power compensation devices other than the stable power generation device 21, such as the battery 4, is increased to an amount that compensates for the shortage of power generated by the natural power generation device 11.

[0132] In the case of power generation using biomass, it may take 30 minutes or more for the amount of power generated to reach a predetermined amount. Therefore, when the stable power generation device 21 is generating power using biomass, the power generation control processing execution unit 340 may output power to the battery 4 until the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device 21 reaches a predetermined amount.

[0133] A decrease in power generation refers to, for example, the difference between the actual power generation value and the previous day's planned value. The planned value is an example of a target amount. Therefore, the previous day's planned value is an example of a target amount.

[0134] Furthermore, the control unit 31 may also include a discrimination unit 370 that determines whether the planned power generation period is the first period or the second period. Hereinafter, the control unit 31 equipped with the discrimination unit 370 will be referred to as the control unit 31a.

[0135] Figure 13 shows an example of the functional configuration of the control unit 31a in a modified example. For the sake of simplicity, the following explanation will be omitted for the sake of brevity, as components having the same functions as those described in Figure 9 will be denoted by the same reference numerals as in Figure 9. The control unit 31a differs from the control unit 31 in that it includes a discrimination unit 370 and a pre-processing execution unit 330a instead of the pre-processing execution unit 330. In addition to the processing performed by the pre-processing execution unit 330, the pre-processing execution unit 330a further performs the following discrimination-dependent result processing.

[0136] The discrimination result-dependent processing is a process that controls the operation of the stable power generator 21 so that the first discriminated power generation amount is less than the second discriminated power generation amount, according to the discrimination result of the discrimination unit 370. The first discriminated power generation amount is the normal power generation amount of the stable power generator 21 when the discrimination unit 370 determines that the planned power generation period is the first period. The second discriminated power generation amount is the normal power generation amount of the stable power generator 21 when the discrimination unit 370 determines that the planned power generation period is the second period.

[0137] The output unit 35 may also output information indicating whether the planned power generation period corresponds to the first period or the second period, along with information indicating the normal power generation amount. For example, when the output unit 35 performs a display, the output format of the information indicating whether the planned power generation period corresponds to the first period or the second period and the information indicating the normal power generation amount is a display. When the output unit 35 performs a display, the output control unit 350 controls the display of the output unit 35, for example. The output unit 35 is an example of a display unit. The output control unit 350 is an example of a display control unit.

[0138] The power generation control device 3 may be implemented using multiple information processing devices that are connected to each other via a network. In this case, each functional unit of the power generation control device 3 may be distributed and implemented across multiple information processing devices.

[0139] Furthermore, the natural power generation device 11 and the stabilizing power generation device 21 do not necessarily need to be installed in different power generation facilities. The natural power generation device 11 and the stabilizing power generation device 21 may be installed in the same power generation facility.

[0140] Furthermore, all or part of the functions of the power generation control device 3 may be implemented using hardware such as ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), PLD (Programmable Logic Device), or FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array). The program may be recorded on a computer-readable recording medium. Computer-readable recording media include, for example, portable media such as flexible disks, magneto-optical disks, ROMs, and CD-ROMs, and storage devices such as hard disks built into computer systems. The program may also be transmitted via a telecommunications line.

[0141] Although embodiments of this invention have been described in detail above with reference to the drawings, the specific configuration is not limited to these embodiments and includes designs and the like that do not depart from the spirit of this invention. [Explanation of Symbols]

[0142] 100...Power generation system, 1...Natural power generation facility, 2...Stable power generation facility, 3...Power generation control device, 4...Battery, 11...Natural power generation device, 12...Sensor, 13...Communication device, 21...Stable power generation device, 22...Communication device, 31, 31a...Control unit, 32...Communication unit, 33...Input unit, 34...Storage unit, 35...Output unit, 310...Communication control unit, 320...Input information acquisition unit, 330, 330a...Pre-processing execution unit, 340...Power generation control processing execution unit, 350...Output control unit, 360...Storage control unit, 370...Discrimination unit, 91...Processor, 92...Memory

Claims

1. A power generation system comprising a natural energy generator that generates electricity using natural energy, and a stable power generator that generates electricity more stably than the natural energy generator, A determination means for determining the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device to a normal power generation amount which is less than the maximum amount of power that the stable power generation device can generate, before the start of the planned power generation period which is the period during which power is generated by the natural power generation device and the stable power generation device. A determination means for determining whether the amount of electricity generated by the natural power generation device during the planned power generation period is less than the planned value, The control means includes, when the determination means determines that there is insufficient power, a control means that controls the stable power generation device so that the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device becomes the normal amount of power generated by the determination means, so that at least a portion of the power obtained by subtracting the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device from the planned value can be generated, The normal power generation amount is less than the stable power generation amount, which is the amount obtained by subtracting The actual past power generation of the aforementioned natural power generation device is less than the planned power generation value of the aforementioned natural power generation device. Power generation system.

2. The amount of power generated by the aforementioned stable power generation device is determined to be equal to the normal amount of power generated on the day before the scheduled power generation period. The power generation system according to claim 1.

3. The normal power generation amount corresponding to the first period, which is a period in which the estimation error (the amount obtained by subtracting the actual past power generation amount of the natural power generation device from the planned value) is relatively large, is less than the normal power generation amount corresponding to the second period, which is a period in which the estimation error is relatively small. The power generation system according to claim 1 or 2.

4. The amount of power generated by the stable power generation device, which has been determined to be the normal amount of power generated, is changed from the normal amount of power generated for the first period to the normal amount of power generated for the second period at a predetermined transition timing from the first period to the second period. The power generation system according to claim 3.

5. An output unit that outputs information indicating the normal amount of power generated, The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 4, further comprising:

6. The aforementioned stable power generation device generates electricity using biomass. The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

7. The system further comprises the aforementioned stable power generation device and power generation devices other than the aforementioned natural power generation device, The amount of power generated by power generation devices other than the stabilizing power generation device and the natural power generation device increases when the process of increasing the amount of power generated by the stabilizing power generation device is performed a predetermined number of times. The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

8. The aforementioned natural power generation device generates solar power. The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

9. If the amount of electricity generated by the natural power generation device during the planned power generation period is less than the planned value, a first battery that outputs power, The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 8, further comprising:

10. A second battery that outputs power until the amount of power generated by the aforementioned stable power generation device reaches a predetermined amount, The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 9, further comprising:

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