Integrated management system, integrated management method, and integrated management program

Abstract

To provide an integration management system, an integration management method and an integration management program.SOLUTION: An integration management system comprises: an acquisition part for, when an abnormality occurs in one facility out of multiple facilities producing products respectively, acquiring restoration time data indicating a predicted restoration time which is predicted to be required until the one facility is restored, from one production management system for managing production in the one facility; a prediction part for predicting a production reduction amount of the products in the one facility using the restoration time data; a determination part for determining a production increase amount of the products in other facilities, on the basis of the production reduction amount, and production condition data indicating a production condition in other facilities different from the one facility out of the multiple facilities; and a transmission part for transmitting a production increase instruction message according to the production increase amount to other production management systems for managing production in other facilities.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to an integrated management system, an integrated management method, and an integrated management program.

Background Art

[0002] Patent Documents 1 to 5 describe, for example, "In the second production plan, the first production line A does not operate during the period from the planned failure time to the planned recovery time, but the load on the second production line B increases after the detection of a failure sign, and the load on the first production line A also increases after passing the planned recovery time." (Paragraph 0077 of Patent Document 1). [Prior Art Documents] [Patent Documents] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Unexamined Patent Application Publication No. 2020-067927 [Patent Document 2] Japanese Unexamined Patent Application Publication No. 2020-052931 [Patent Document 3] Japanese Unexamined Patent Application Publication No. 2004-227461 [Patent Document 4] Japanese Unexamined Patent Application Publication No. 02-284853 [Patent Document 5] Japanese Unexamined Patent Application Publication No. 2012-226541

Summary of the Invention

[0003] In a first aspect of the present invention, when an abnormality occurs in one of a plurality of facilities that each produce a product, acquisition means for acquiring recovery time data indicating the recovery time predicted to be required until the one facility recovers from a production management system that manages production in the one facility, prediction means for predicting the production reduction amount of the product in the one facility using the recovery time data, determination means for determining the production increase amount of the product in the other facility based on the production reduction amount and production condition data indicating production conditions in another facility different from the one facility among the plurality of facilities, and transmission means for transmitting a production increase instruction message corresponding to the production increase amount to another production management system that manages production in the other facility are provided, and an integrated management system is provided.

[0004] In the integrated management system described above, the production conditions include the amount of production that can be increased in other equipment, and the determination unit may set the amount of production that can be increased in other equipment to be less than or equal to the amount of production that can be increased in other equipment.

[0005] In any of the above integrated management systems, the production conditions may include the utilization rate.

[0006] In any of the above integrated management systems, the production conditions may include a maintenance plan.

[0007] In any of the above integrated management systems, the production conditions may include production costs.

[0008] In the integrated management system described above, the production cost may include the shipping cost of delivering the products to the destination.

[0009] Any of the above integrated management systems includes a receiving unit that receives the production condition data for the other equipment, and the determination unit may determine the production increase amount for the other equipment based on the production reduction amount and the received production condition data.

[0010] In any of the above integrated management systems, the transmission unit may send a production completion message to the other production management system when the first piece of equipment is restored.

[0011] In any of the above integrated management systems, the decision unit may, upon the restoration of the first piece of equipment, determine an additional production quantity that will increase the production of the product beyond the production quantity that would have been planned for the first piece of equipment within the period from the present time if the abnormality had not occurred, and the transmission unit may transmit a production increase instruction message corresponding to the additional production quantity to the first production management system.

[0012] In the integrated management system described above, the decision unit, in response to the restoration of the first piece of equipment, determines a reduction in production volume that would be less than the production volume of the product that would have been scheduled for the period from the present time at the other piece of equipment if the abnormality had not occurred, and the transmission unit, in response to the transmission of the production increase instruction message to the first production management system, may transmit a production reduction instruction message corresponding to the reduction in production volume to the other production management system.

[0013] In any of the above integrated management systems, the decision unit may determine the amount of production reduction of the product in the equipment if the equipment fails to recover within a predetermined standard time, and the transmission unit may transmit a production reduction instruction message corresponding to the amount of production reduction to the production management system.

[0014] In any of the above integrated management systems, the decision unit may, if the first piece of equipment is not restored within a predetermined standard time, re-determine the increased production quantity for the other piece of equipment, and the transmission unit may re-transmit a production increase instruction message corresponding to the re-determined increased production quantity to the other production management system.

[0015] In a second aspect of the present invention, an integrated management method is provided, comprising: a computer obtaining recovery time data from a production management system that manages production at a plurality of facilities, which each produce a product, when an abnormality occurs at one of the facilities, indicating the estimated recovery time required for the facility to recover; predicting the amount of production reduction of the product at the facility using the recovery time data; determining the amount of production increase of the product at the other facilities based on the amount of production reduction and production condition data indicating the production conditions at the other facilities; and sending a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production amount to another production management system that manages production at the other facilities.

[0016] In a third aspect of the present invention, an integrated management program is provided which is executed by a computer and causes the computer to function as follows: an acquisition unit that acquires recovery time data, which indicates the estimated recovery time required for one of a plurality of pieces of equipment that each produces a product to be restored when an abnormality occurs in one of the pieces of equipment that produces a product, from a production management system that manages production in the one piece of equipment; a prediction unit that uses the recovery time data to predict the amount of production reduction of the product in the one piece of equipment; a determination unit that determines the amount of production increase of the product in the other pieces of equipment based on the amount of production reduction and production condition data indicating the production conditions in the other pieces of equipment; and a transmission unit that transmits a production increase instruction message corresponding to the amount of production increase to another production management system that manages production in the other pieces of equipment.

[0017] It should be noted that the above summary of the invention does not enumerate all the necessary features of the present invention. Furthermore, subcombinations of these features may also constitute an invention. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0018] [Figure 1] A production system 1 according to an embodiment is shown. [Figure 2] Production management system 3 is shown. [Figure 3] The integrated management system 4 is shown. [Figure 4] This demonstrates the operation of production system 1. [Figure 5] Examples of a computer 1200 in which multiple aspects of the present invention may be embodied in whole or in part are shown. [Modes for carrying out the invention]

[0019] The present invention will be described below through embodiments of the invention, but these embodiments are not intended to limit the invention as defined in the claims. Furthermore, not all combinations of features described in the embodiments are necessarily essential to the solution of the invention.

[0020] (System 1) FIG. 1 shows a production system 1 according to this embodiment. The production system 1 includes a plurality of facilities 2, a plurality of production management systems 3, and an integrated management system 4.

[0021] ((Facility 2)) Each facility 2 produces a product. Each facility 2 may be a plant provided with a plurality of devices, or a manufacturing apparatus that combines a plurality of devices. Examples of the plant include industrial plants such as chemical and bio plants.

[0022] Here, the production system 1 according to this embodiment may include a plurality of facilities 2 that cooperate with each other to form a supply chain 10. The supply chain 10 may sequentially produce products a, b, and c step by step from the starting raw materials. The upstream facility 2 that constitutes the supply chain 10 may produce a product and supply it to the downstream facility 2. The downstream facility 2 may use the product produced by the upstream facility 2 as a raw material to produce other products and supply them to the more downstream facility 2. In this embodiment, as an example, each facility 2 may produce any one of the products a, b, and c that circulate within the supply chain 10. Product c may be the final product of the supply chain 10.

[0023] The production system 1 according to this embodiment may include a plurality of facilities 2 that produce the same type of product. In this embodiment, as an example, the production system 1 may include a plurality of facilities 2 (also referred to as facility 2a) that each produce product a, a plurality of facilities 2 (also referred to as facility 2b) that each produce product b, and a plurality of facilities 2 (also referred to as facility 2c) that each produce product c. Each facility 2a may supply product a to facility 2b, and each facility 2b may supply product b to facility 2c.

[0024] Each piece of equipment 2 may be operated by a different manufacturer and installed on different sites. Each piece of equipment 2 may be equipped with one or more sensors to measure the state of the equipment. The sensors may measure physical quantities such as pressure, temperature, pH, velocity, and flow rate. The sensors may also measure the production volume and production rate of the product produced by equipment 2.

[0025] ((Production Management System 3)) Each production management system 3 manages the production of products at the target equipment 2 by managing one or more pieces of equipment 2 (also referred to as target equipment 2) that are to be managed from among the multiple pieces of equipment 2 included in the production system 1.

[0026] Here, the production system 1 according to this embodiment may include a production management system 3 (also referred to as production management system 3a) for managing equipment 2a, a production management system 3 (also referred to as production management system 3b) for managing equipment 2b, and a production management system 3 (also referred to as production management system 3c) for managing equipment 2c. The production system 1 according to this embodiment may include multiple production management systems 3a for managing each of the multiple pieces of equipment 2a, multiple production management systems 3b for managing each of the multiple pieces of equipment 2b, and multiple production management systems 3c for managing each of the multiple pieces of equipment 2c. Each production management system 3 may correspond one-to-one with each piece of equipment 2 and manage the corresponding single piece of equipment 2. Each production management system 3 may be operated by the same manufacturer as the target equipment 2 and may be installed on the same site as the target equipment 2. However, at least some of the production management systems 3 may be provided on a network.

[0027] ((Integrated Management System 4)) The integrated management system 4 centrally manages multiple pieces of equipment 2 related to a product. For example, the integrated management system 4 may centrally manage multiple pieces of equipment 2a related to product a, or multiple pieces of equipment 2b related to product b, or multiple pieces of equipment 2c related to product c. Since products a to c are related to each other as raw materials and products, the integrated management system 4 may centrally manage multiple pieces of equipment 2a to 2c related to product a, or multiple pieces of equipment 2a to 2c related to product b, or multiple pieces of equipment 2a to 2c related to product c. In this embodiment, as an example, the integrated management system 4 may manage the entire supply chain 10 through each production management system 3. The integrated management system 4 may be provided, for example, on the cloud.

[0028] (Configuration of Production Management System 3) Figure 2 shows the production management system 3. The production management system 3 includes an acquisition unit 30, a detection unit 31, a storage unit 32, a prediction unit 33, a transmission unit 34, a model generation unit 35, a receiving unit 36, and a control unit 37.

[0029] ((Acquisition part 30)) The acquisition unit 30 acquires state data indicating the state of the target equipment 2. The acquisition unit 30 may acquire state data from the target equipment 2. The state data may include measurement data measured by at least one sensor on the target equipment 2 to indicate the state of the target equipment 2. The state data may indicate the state of the target equipment 2 at a specific point in time, and may include measurement data measured at that point in time or within its error period. Each time the acquisition unit 30 acquires state data, it may supply the state data to the detection unit 31, the storage unit 32, and the control unit 37.

[0030] ((Detection unit 31)) The detection unit 31 detects abnormalities in the target equipment 2 based on status data. The detection unit 31 may detect whether or not the target equipment 2 is abnormal in response to the status data of the target equipment 2 supplied from the acquisition unit 30, and may supply the detection result to the storage unit 32, the prediction unit 33, and the transmission unit 34.

[0031] The detection unit 31 may, after detecting that the target equipment 2 is abnormal based on the status data supplied from the acquisition unit 30 at one point in time (also referred to as the status data at one point in time), and then detecting that the target equipment 2 is normal based on the status data supplied from the acquisition unit 30 at another point in time (also referred to as the status data at another point in time), detect the time from one point in time to another point in time as the recovery time required for recovery. The recovery time detected by the detection unit 31 may represent the actual recovery time. Upon detecting the recovery time, the detection unit 31 may store the recovery time in the storage unit 32, associating it with the status data at least one of the points in time from one point in time to another point in time. For example, the detection unit 31 may temporarily store the timestamp of the status data in which the target equipment 2 was detected as abnormal, and upon detection of the recovery time due to the recovery of the abnormality, it may store the recovery time in association with the temporarily stored timestamp status data. The detection unit 31 does not have to detect the recovery time. In this case, the operator of the production management system 3 may detect the period from the aforementioned point in time to the present time as the recovery time, based on the confirmation that the target equipment 2 has been restored, and store it in the storage unit 32. The actual recovery time stored in association with the status data may be used as training data, as described later, to generate the learning model 322.

[0032] The detection unit 31 may, for example, detect an abnormality in the target equipment 2 using a classification model (not shown) that outputs a classification result of the state of the target equipment 2 in response to the supply of state data for the target equipment 2. In this embodiment, the classification of the state of the equipment 2 may, for example, be either a classification indicating normality or a classification indicating abnormality. The classification model may output a state index value (also called a health index) that is binarized into a value indicating that the state of the target equipment 2 is normal and a value indicating that the state of the equipment 2 is abnormal. The classification model may be trained using training data that includes the state data of the target equipment 2 and binary values ​​indicating that the state of the target equipment 2 is good and a value indicating that the state of the equipment 2 is poor, and may output a state index value that is binarized by comparison with a threshold. The classification model may be, for example, a support vector machine, but it may also be a model trained using other algorithms such as logistic regression, decision trees, or neural networks.

[0033] ((Storage unit 32)) The memory unit 32 stores various types of information. The memory unit 32 may store data files 321 and learning models 322. The memory unit 32 may also store maintenance plans for the target equipment 2 and production costs of products.

[0034] (((Data file 321))) The data file 321 stores status data supplied from the acquisition unit 30. The data file 321 may store status data and the timing of its acquisition in association. The status data in the data file 321 may store whether the target equipment 2 is normal or abnormal in association, and in this embodiment, as an example, the detection result of the detection unit 31 based on the status data may be stored in association. Of the status data in the data file 321, at least the status data at the time the abnormality occurred may be associated with the actual recovery time of the abnormality as detected by the detection unit 31.

[0035] (((Learning Model 322))) The learning model 322 outputs the estimated recovery time required for the target equipment 2 to recover, in response to the supply of state data indicating that the target equipment 2 is abnormal. The recovery time may be in minutes, hours, or days. The learning model 322 may be trained to output the recovery time in response to the input of state data. The learning model 322 may be, for example, a support vector machine, but it may also be a model trained using other algorithms such as logistic regression, decision trees, or neural networks.

[0036] ((Prediction section 33)) The prediction unit 33 predicts the recovery time required for the equipment 2 to recover when an abnormality is detected in the target equipment 2. The prediction unit 33 may predict the recovery time in response to the detection unit 31 detecting an abnormality in the target equipment 2. The prediction unit 33 may predict the recovery time using the model output output from the learning model 322 in response to the input of state data, and in this embodiment, as an example, the recovery time as the model output may be used as the predicted recovery time. The prediction unit 33 may supply recovery time data indicating the predicted recovery time to the transmission unit 34. The recovery time data may further indicate the starting point of the recovery time, such as the time when the abnormality occurred (for example, the time when the detection unit 31 detected the abnormality) or the current time.

[0037] (Transmitter 34) The transmitting unit 34 transmits various information to the integrated management system 4. For example, the transmitting unit 34 may transmit the detection result from the detection unit 31, that is, the detection result of whether or not the target equipment 2 is abnormal, to the integrated management system 4.

[0038] The transmission unit 34 may be an example of a notification unit, and when an abnormality is detected in the target equipment 2, that is, when the target equipment 2 becomes equipment 2 that has experienced an abnormality (also referred to as equipment 2 that has experienced an abnormality), it may transmit the recovery time data supplied from the prediction unit 33 to the integrated management system 4, thereby notifying the integrated management system 4 of the recovery time.

[0039] The transmitting unit 34 may, when an abnormality is detected in the target equipment 2, notify the integrated management system 4 of the production speed data indicating the production speed of the product in the target equipment 2 from the time the abnormality is detected until recovery. The production speed from the time the abnormality is detected until recovery may be included in the status data acquired by the acquisition unit 30, or it may be predicted from the status data by the detection unit 31 or the prediction unit 33, and supplied from the detection unit 31 or the prediction unit 33 to the transmitting unit 34. If the production speed is predicted from the status data, a learning model that outputs the production speed of the target equipment 2 in response to the supply of status data for the target equipment 2 may be used. The learning model may be trained using learning data that associates the status data of the target equipment 2 with the production speed of the target equipment 2 indicated by the status data, and may be a model trained using algorithms such as support vector machines, logistic regression, decision trees, or neural networks. The production speed of the product in the target equipment 2 from the time the abnormality is detected until recovery may be the production volume per unit time (for example, one hour or one day) maintained until recovery. The production rate of products in the target equipment 2 from the time an abnormality is detected until recovery may be a value of 0 or greater, may be 0 if the target equipment 2 is unable to produce due to the occurrence of an abnormality, and may be a value greater than 0 if production can be continued in part of the target equipment 2. The production rate of products in the target equipment 2 may be the production rate of products (also called target products) that are distributed in the supply chain 10 among the products produced by the target equipment 2, may be the production rate of product a if the target equipment 2 is equipment 2a, may be the production rate of product b if the target equipment 2 is equipment 2b, and may be the production rate of product c if the target equipment 2 is equipment 2c.

[0040] When the restoration of the target equipment 2 is detected, that is, when it is detected that the target equipment 2 has returned to a normal state after an abnormality was detected, the transmission unit 34 may notify the integrated management system 4 of the production speed by transmitting production speed data indicating the production speed of the target product in the target equipment 2 after restoration. The production speed after restoration may be the production speed per unit time that is maintained after restoration. The production speed after restoration may be the same as the production speed before the abnormality was detected (for example, the production speed in a pre-set production plan), or it may be different. If the production speed after restoration is the same as the production speed before the abnormality was detected, the production speed may be obtained from the production plan. If the production speed after restoration is different from the production speed before the abnormality was detected, the production speed may be included in the status data obtained by the acquisition unit 30, or it may be predicted from the status data by the detection unit 31 or the prediction unit 33, and supplied from the detection unit 31 or the prediction unit 33 to the transmission unit 34.

[0041] If no abnormality is detected in the target equipment 2, that is, if the target equipment 2 is a normal equipment 2 (also referred to as normal equipment 2), the transmitting unit 34 may transmit production condition data indicating the production conditions of the target equipment 2 to the integrated management system 4 in response to a request from the integrated management system 4. The transmitting unit 34 may transmit production condition data supplied by the control unit 37 (described later) to the integrated management system 4 in response to the receiving unit 36 ​​receiving a request message for production condition data. Details regarding production conditions and production condition data will be described later.

[0042] ((Model generation unit 35)) The model generation unit 35 generates a learning model 322 by a learning process using state data and actual recovery time as learning data. The model generation unit 35 may perform the learning process using learning data that associates state data at the time of an anomaly occurrence with the recovery time of the anomaly. In this embodiment, as an example, the model generation unit 35 may use state data and recovery time stored in association with data file 321 as learning data. The model generation unit 35 may generate the learning model 322 using a conventionally known learning algorithm and store the generated learning model 322 in the storage unit 32.

[0043] ((Receiving unit 36)) The receiving unit 36 ​​receives various messages transmitted from the integrated management system 4. The receiving unit 36 ​​may receive messages instructing adjustment of the production volume in the target equipment 2 and messages requesting production condition data for the target equipment 2. The receiving unit 36 ​​may supply the received messages to the control unit 37.

[0044] ((Control Unit 37)) The control unit 37 controls each part of the production management system 3 and may also control the target equipment 2. For example, in response to a message requesting production condition data being supplied from the receiving unit 36, the control unit 37 may generate production condition data indicating the production conditions of the target equipment 2 and transmit it to the integrated management system 4 from the transmitting unit 34. The request message may be transmitted to the production management system 3 of a normal equipment 2 in response to an abnormality in the target equipment 2 of another production management system 3, and may include recovery time data indicating the predicted recovery time and the time when the abnormality occurred, and identification information indicating the type of target product produced by the abnormal equipment 2. The control unit 37 may generate production condition data from state data acquired by the acquisition unit 30 and various information stored in the storage unit 32.

[0045] Here, the production condition data may represent the production conditions of the target equipment 2 for the period from the time the anomaly occurred to the end of the recovery time (also referred to as the predicted recovery period).

[0046] The production conditions may include the amount of the target product that can be increased in target facility 2 (here, normal facility 2). The amount of the amount of the amount of the target product that can be increased in production within the predicted period until recovery may be the total amount of the target product that can be increased. The amount of the

[0047] The production conditions may include the utilization rate of the target equipment 2 (here, normal equipment 2). The utilization rate may be the actual operating time relative to the maximum operating time (e.g., number of days) within the base period (e.g., one month), and may be independent of the type of product. For example, if equipment 2 is capable of producing a first product supplied to equipment 2 downstream in the supply chain 10, and a second product unrelated to the supply chain 10, and uses half of the maximum operating time to produce the first product and the other half to produce the second product, then the utilization rate of equipment 2 may be 100%. Note that the utilization rate may also be the operating rate. The utilization rate may exceed 100%.

[0048] The production conditions may include a maintenance plan for the target equipment 2 (in this case, normal equipment 2). The maintenance plan may include the start and end dates of maintenance, the maximum output of the target product during maintenance, and the maximum operating rate. The maximum output of the target product during maintenance may be the maximum total amount of the target product that can be produced during maintenance.

[0049] The production conditions may include the production costs at the target equipment 2 (in this case, normal equipment 2). The production costs may be the costs necessary for producing the target product. The production costs may include the shipping costs for shipping the target product to the destination. The destination may be equipment 2 downstream in the supply chain 10 from the source equipment 2. The shipping costs may be the costs required to deliver the target product from the source equipment 2 to the destination equipment 2, and may include the transportation costs between the source equipment 2 and the destination equipment 2.

[0050] The control unit 37 may control the target equipment 2 (in this case, the normal equipment 2 or the equipment 2 with an abnormality) based on the status data acquired by the acquisition unit 30. The control unit 37 may control the target equipment 2 to achieve the increased or decreased production amount indicated in the message when a message instructing adjustment of the production volume of the target equipment 2 is supplied from the receiving unit 36. The control unit 37 may determine the control content for the target equipment 2 and supply a control signal to the target equipment 2 according to the control content.

[0051] According to the production management system 3 described above, when an abnormality is detected in the target equipment 2, the recovery time is predicted using the model output output from the learning model 322 in response to the input status data, so the recovery time can be predicted with high accuracy in accordance with the actual situation.

[0052] Furthermore, since the learning model 322 is trained to output recovery time in response to state data being input, the configuration of the prediction unit 33 that predicts recovery time can be simplified.

[0053] Furthermore, since the status data and actual recovery time are used as training data and the model generation unit 35 generates a training model 322, it is possible to obtain a recovery time that is more in line with the actual situation.

[0054] Furthermore, since the recovery time is notified to the integrated management system 4, multiple pieces of equipment 2 related to the target product can be properly managed.

[0055] Furthermore, since the production rate of the affected product from the time the abnormality is detected until it is restored is notified to the integrated management system 4, the integrated management system 4 can easily adjust the production of the affected product until it is restored.

[0056] Furthermore, since the production speed of the target product after restoration is notified to the integrated management system, the integrated management system 4 can easily adjust the production of the target product after restoration.

[0057] (Configuration of Integrated Management System 4) Figure 3 shows the integrated management system 4. The integrated management system 4 includes a receiving unit 40, a prediction unit 41, a decision unit 42, and a transmission unit 43.

[0058] ((Receiver 40)) The receiving unit 40 receives production condition data indicating the production conditions of a normal equipment 2 that is different from the equipment 2 that experienced an abnormality. The receiving unit 40 may receive production condition data from the production management system 3 of each normal equipment 2 that produces the same type of target product as the equipment 2 that experienced an abnormality. The receiving unit 40 may receive production condition data for each of the multiple normal equipment 2 that produce the target product. The production condition data may be transmitted to the integrated management system 4 in response to a request message for production condition data being sent from the transmitting unit 43 (described later) to the production management system 3. The receiving unit 40 may supply the received production condition data to the determination unit 42.

[0059] The receiving unit 40 may be an example of an acquisition unit, and when an abnormality occurs in one of the multiple pieces of equipment 2, that is, when one piece of equipment 2 becomes the abnormal equipment 2, it may acquire recovery time data indicating the estimated recovery time required for the abnormal equipment 2 to recover. The receiving unit 40 may acquire recovery time data from the production management system 3 that manages production at the abnormal equipment 2.

[0060] The receiving unit 40 may acquire production speed data from the production management system 3 of the malfunctioning equipment 2, indicating the production speed of the target product (i.e., the amount produced per unit time) in the malfunctioning equipment 2 from the time the malfunction is detected until it is restored. The receiving unit 40 may further acquire production speed data from the malfunctioning equipment 2, indicating the production speed of the target product after it has been restored. The production speed data may include identification information indicating the type of target product.

[0061] The receiving unit 40 may further acquire detection results from the production management system 3 of each piece of equipment 2 to determine whether or not there is an abnormality. The receiving unit 40 may supply the detection results, recovery time data, and production speed data to the prediction unit 41. The receiving unit 40 may supply the recovery time data and identification information indicating the type of target product to the transmitting unit 43.

[0062] ((Prediction section 41)) The prediction unit 41 uses recovery time data to predict the amount of production reduction at the malfunctioning equipment 2. The prediction unit 41 may predict the amount of production reduction of the target product supplied to the downstream equipment 2 in the supply chain 10. The production reduction may be the total amount of the target product that decreases due to the malfunction during the predicted recovery period shown in the recovery time data. The production reduction may be the amount of reduction from the production volume that was scheduled to be produced during the predicted recovery period in a production plan (for example, an annual plan or a monthly plan) set in advance based on demand forecasts.

[0063] The prediction unit 41 may calculate the total amount of target products to be produced by the malfunctioning equipment 2 during the predicted period until recovery by multiplying the recovery time indicated by the recovery time data by the production speed indicated by the production speed data until recovery at the malfunctioning equipment 2. The prediction unit 41 may predict the amount of production reduction as the value obtained by subtracting the calculated total amount of target products from the planned production amount during the predicted period until recovery. The prediction unit 41 may supply the production reduction amount data indicating the predicted amount of production reduction to the determination unit 42.

[0064] (Decision Section 42) The decision unit 42 determines the amount of increased production of the target product in the normal equipment 2 based on the amount of reduced production and production condition data indicating the production conditions in the normal equipment 2. The decision unit 42 may determine the amount of increased production in the normal equipment 2 indicated by the production condition data, based on the amount of reduced production in the abnormal equipment 2 predicted by the prediction unit 41 and the production condition data of the normal equipment 2 received by the receiving unit 40. If production condition data has been received for each of the multiple normal equipment 2s, the decision unit 42 may determine the amount of increased production for each of these normal equipment 2s. In this embodiment, as an example, the amount of increased production may be the increase from the production amount planned for the predicted period until recovery in the production plan, or it may be the amount of increased production that should be achieved within the predicted period. The decision unit 42 may determine the amount of increased production so that the amount of reduced production predicted by the prediction unit 41 and the total amount of increased production by each normal equipment 2 are equal. The decision unit 42 may determine the amount of increased production in each normal equipment 2 to be the same or to be different.

[0065] The decision unit 42 may determine the amount of production increase for each normal equipment 2 based on the amount of production increase possible for the target product in each normal equipment 2. The decision unit 42 may set the amount of production increase for each normal equipment 2 to be less than or equal to the amount of production increase possible for the target product in that normal equipment 2. The decision unit 42 may determine the amount of production increase for each normal equipment 2 such that the amount of production increase is greater for normal equipment 2 with a larger production increase capacity. The decision unit 42 may determine the amount of production increase for each normal equipment 2 by setting the total amount of production increase corresponding to the predicted production decrease to 100% and allocating this total amount according to the ratio of the production increase capacity of each normal equipment 2. For example, if the production increase capacity of three normal equipment 2 is shown in a ratio of 20:30:50, the decision unit 42 may determine the amount of production increase for each normal equipment 2 by allocating the total amount of production increase (100%) in a ratio of 20:30:50.

[0066] The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production volume for each normal equipment 2 based on the operating rate of each normal equipment 2. The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production volume of the target product in each normal equipment 2 such that the operating rate of that normal equipment 2 does not exceed the standard operating rate (for example, 100%).

[0067] When adjusting the production volume of a target product by varying the operating rate, the amount of change in the operating rate and the amount of change in the production volume may be proportional, and the determination unit 42 may pre-store a proportionality constant between the operating rate and the production volume for each piece of equipment 2. The determination unit 42 may determine the amount of production increase for each piece of normal equipment 2 such that the amount of production increase is greater for normal equipment 2 with a larger margin width from the operating rate to the standard operating rate (also called the operating rate margin width), that is, the amount of production increase is greater for normal equipment 2 with a lower operating rate, or it may determine the amount of production increase for each piece of normal equipment 2 such that the amount of production increase is greater for normal equipment 2 with a higher operating rate. As an example, the determination unit 42 may use the proportionality constant between the operating rate and the production volume of each piece of normal equipment 2 to calculate a provisional increase in the production volume of the target product at each piece of normal equipment 2 each time the operating rate of the normal equipment 2 is increased by a standard amount up to the standard operating rate, in order of the largest operating rate margin width (or in order of highest operating rate), and determine whether the total amount of the provisional increase in production volume matches the predicted decrease in production volume. The determination unit 42 may determine the provisional increase in production for each normal equipment 2 as the production increase for each normal equipment 2, when the total provisional increase in production is equal to the decrease in production.

[0068] Alternatively, the determination unit 42 may use the result of multiplying the operating rate and the proportionality constant of production volume by the operating rate margin width for each normal equipment 2 as the amount of production that can be increased for each target product for each equipment 2. In this case, the determination unit 42 may determine the amount of production to be increased for each normal equipment 2 based on the amount of production that can be increased for each normal equipment 2, as described above.

[0069] The decision unit 42 may determine the increased production volume for each normal equipment 2 based on the maintenance plan for each normal equipment 2. The maintenance plan may include the start and end times of maintenance, the maximum production volume of the target product during maintenance, and the maximum operating rate. The decision unit 42 may exclude normal equipment 2 that have maintenance to be performed during the predicted period until recovery, and determine the increased production volume only for normal equipment 2 that do not have maintenance to be performed. The decision unit 42 may also determine the increased production volume for each normal equipment 2 based on the maintenance plan and the possible increased production volume or operating rate. For example, depending on whether one normal equipment 2 has maintenance to be performed during the predicted period until recovery, the decision unit 42 may determine the increased production volume of the target product during maintenance for that normal equipment 2 to be less than or equal to the maximum production volume indicated in the maintenance plan, or it may determine the operating rate during maintenance to be less than or equal to the maximum operating rate indicated in the maintenance plan.

[0070] The decision unit 42 may determine the amount of production increase for each normal equipment 2 based on the production cost of the target product at each normal equipment 2. The decision unit 42 may determine the amount of production increase only for normal equipment 2 whose production cost is lower than the standard cost. The decision unit 42 may also determine the amount of production increase for each normal equipment 2 based on the production cost and the amount of production that can be increased. For example, the decision unit 42 may calculate the total amount of the provisional production increase for the target product at each normal equipment 2, starting with the normal equipment 2 with the lowest production cost, and determine the provisional production increase for each normal equipment 2 when this total amount matches the predicted production decrease, as the amount of production increase for that normal equipment 2. The decision unit 42 may also determine the amount of production increase for each normal equipment 2 based on the production cost and the operating rate. For example, the decision unit 42 may calculate the total amount of the provisional increase in production volume of the target product at each normal equipment 2, starting with the normal equipment 2 with the lowest production cost, and determine the amount of the provisional increase in production volume of each normal equipment 2 when this total amount matches the predicted decrease in production volume.

[0071] The decision unit 42 may, in response to the recovery of the malfunctioning equipment 2, determine an additional production quantity (also referred to as a compensatory production quantity) that would increase the production quantity of the target product beyond what would have been planned for the malfunctioning equipment 2 during the period from the present moment if the malfunction had not occurred. The production quantity of the target product that would have been planned for the malfunctioning equipment 2 during the period from the present moment (for example, the moment when the malfunctioning equipment 2 is recovered) if the malfunction had not occurred may be the production quantity planned in the production plan of the malfunctioning equipment 2 for the period from the present moment to the first time point (also referred to as the first adjustment period). The first time point may be the delivery date for the target product to the downstream equipment 2 in the supply chain 10, the delivery date for the raw materials of the target product to the malfunctioning equipment 2, the time when a period of the same length as the recovery time has elapsed from the present moment, or any other time point different from these.

[0072] The increased production volume for compensation may be intended to compensate for the load placed on normal equipment 2 due to the increased production resulting from the anomaly, and may be equal to the total amount of the target product increased by normal equipment 2 due to the anomaly. The increased production volume for compensation may be the amount of increase that should be achieved within the first adjustment period.

[0073] The decision unit 42 may, in response to the recovery of the malfunctioning equipment 2, determine a reduction in production volume (also referred to as a compensatory reduction) of the target product that would have been produced by the normal equipment 2 during the period from the present moment if the malfunction had not occurred. The production volume of the target product that would have been produced by the normal equipment 2 during the period from the present moment (for example, the moment when the malfunctioning equipment 2 was recovered) if the malfunction had not occurred may be the production volume that was scheduled in the production plan of each normal equipment 2 for the period from the present moment to the second time point (also referred to as the second adjustment period). The second time point may be the delivery date for the target product to the downstream equipment 2 in the supply chain 10, the delivery date for the raw materials of the target product to the normal equipment 2, the time when a period of the same length as the recovery time has elapsed from the present moment, or any other time point different from these. The second time point may be the same as the first time point, or it may be different.

[0074] The amount of production reduction for compensation may be the amount of production that is reduced as a result of the increased production of the target product at the restored malfunctioning facility 2. For example, it may be the same amount as the increased production of the target product at each of the normal facilities 2 up to the time the malfunctioning facility 2 was restored. The amount of production reduction for compensation may be determined for each of the normal facilities 2 that increased production in response to the malfunction at the malfunctioning facility 2. The amount of production reduction for compensation may be the amount of production reduction that should be achieved within the second adjustment period.

[0075] The decision unit 42 may determine the amount of production reduction (also referred to as the extension amount) of the target product at the malfunctioning equipment 2 if the malfunctioning equipment 2 is not restored within a predetermined standard time. The standard time may be longer than the restoration time, shorter than the restoration time, or the same length of time. The decision unit 42 may also determine an amount of production reduction that is less than the amount of the target product predicted based on the production rate data of the malfunctioning equipment 2 until restoration. The decision unit 42 may also determine an amount of production reduction that is less than the amount of the target product predicted within the period from the present time (for example, the time when the standard time has elapsed after the malfunction) to a third time (also referred to as the third adjustment period). The amount of production reduction may be the amount of production reduction that should be achieved within the third adjustment period. The third point in time may be the delivery date for the target product to the downstream equipment 2 in the supply chain 10, the delivery date for the raw materials of the target product to the malfunctioning equipment 2, the point in time when the same length of time as the recovery time has elapsed from the present time, or any other point in time different from these. The third point in time may be the same as at least one of the first or second point in time, or it may be different from both the first and second point in time.

[0076] The decision unit 42 may re-determine the increased production amount (also referred to as the extended increased production amount) for the normal equipment 2 if the malfunctioning equipment 2 is not restored within a predetermined standard time. The standard time may be the same length as the time required to determine the extended increased production amount. The decision unit 42 may determine the extended increased production amount for each normal equipment 2 in the same manner as when the increased production amount for the production equipment 2 was determined based on production condition data in response to the malfunctioning equipment 2. The decision unit 42 may determine the extended increased production amount for each of the normal equipment 2 that increased production in response to the malfunctioning equipment 2. The extended increased production amount may be an increase from the production amount scheduled within the third adjustment period in the production plan, or it may be an increase in production amount that should be achieved within the third adjustment period.

[0077] The determination unit 42 may supply the transmission unit 43 with production increase data indicating the determined increase in production and production decrease data indicating the determined decrease in production. The production increase data and production decrease data may include identification information of the target equipment 2 for which the production increase has been determined.

[0078] (Transmitter 43) The transmission unit 43 transmits various information to each production management system 3.

[0079] The transmitting unit 43 may, in response to an abnormality occurring in any of the equipment 2, send a production condition request message to the production management system 3 of each functioning equipment 2 requesting production condition data. The production condition request message may include recovery time data and identification information indicating the type of product to be processed.

[0080] The transmitting unit 43 may send a message to each production management system 3 instructing them to adjust the production volume. The transmitting unit 43 may send a message instructing an increase in production, a message instructing the end of the increase in production, or a message instructing a decrease in production as a message instructing the adjustment of the production volume.

[0081] For example, the transmission unit 43 may send a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume determined by the determination unit 42 to the production management system 3 that manages production at each normal equipment 2. The transmission unit 43 may send a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume determined for each normal equipment 2 to the production management system 3 that manages that normal equipment 2. The production increase instruction message may indicate the increased production volume, and may further indicate the end of the predicted period until recovery as the point at which the increased production volume should be achieved. The production increase instruction message may also indicate the production speed required to achieve the increased production volume within the predicted period until recovery, and may further indicate the end of the predicted period until recovery as the point at which the production speed should be returned to normal.

[0082] The transmitting unit 43 may transmit a production increase instruction message (also referred to as a compensation production increase instruction message) corresponding to the amount of compensation production increase determined when the malfunctioning equipment 2 is restored to the production management system 3 of the malfunctioning equipment 2. The compensation production increase instruction message may indicate the amount of compensation production increase, and may further indicate the end of the first adjustment period (i.e., the first time point) as the time when the compensation production increase should be realized. The compensation production increase instruction message may also indicate the production rate necessary to realize the compensation production increase within the first adjustment period, and may further indicate the first time point as the time when the production rate should be returned to normal.

[0083] In response to the transmission unit 43 sending a compensatory production increase instruction message to the production management system 3 of the malfunctioning equipment 2, the transmission unit 43 may send a production reduction instruction message (also referred to as a compensatory production reduction instruction message) corresponding to the compensatory production reduction amount to the production management system 3 of each normal equipment 2. The compensatory production reduction instruction message may indicate the compensatory production reduction amount, and may further indicate the end of the second adjustment period (i.e., the second point in time) as the point in time when the compensatory production reduction amount should be realized. The compensatory production reduction instruction message may also indicate the production speed necessary to realize the compensatory production reduction amount within the second adjustment period, and may further indicate the second point in time as the point in time when the production speed should be restored to its original level.

[0084] If the malfunctioning equipment 2 does not recover, the transmission unit 43 may send a production reduction instruction message (also referred to as an extension production reduction instruction message) corresponding to the extension production reduction amount determined for the malfunctioning equipment 2 to the target production management system 3 for the malfunctioning equipment 2. The extension production reduction instruction message may indicate the extension production reduction amount, and may further indicate the end of the third adjustment period (i.e., the third point in time) as the point in time when the extension production reduction amount should be realized. The extension production reduction instruction message may also indicate the production speed required to realize the extension production reduction amount within the third adjustment period, and may further indicate the third point in time when the production speed should be restored to its original level. Upon receiving the extension production reduction instruction message, the malfunctioning equipment 2 may increase the resources such as personnel and maintenance equipment allocated to recovering from the malfunction, thereby accelerating the recovery, as the production load will be reduced by the extension production reduction amount.

[0085] The transmitting unit 43 may retransmit a production increase instruction message to the production management system 3 of each normal equipment 2, corresponding to the extended production increase amount determined when the malfunctioning equipment 2 does not recover. The extended production increase instruction message may indicate the extended production increase amount, and may further indicate the end of the third adjustment period (i.e., the third point in time) as the point in time when the extended production increase amount should be realized. The extended production increase instruction message may also indicate the production speed required to realize the extended production increase amount within the third adjustment period, and may further indicate the third point in time when the production speed should be returned to normal. A normal equipment 2 that receives an extended production increase instruction message may increase its production volume by the extended production increase amount.

[0086] According to the integrated management system 4 described above, the amount of production reduction is predicted using recovery time data obtained from the production management system 3 of the malfunctioning equipment 2. Based on this production reduction and the production condition data of the normal equipment 2, the amount of production increase for the normal equipment 2 is determined, and a production increase instruction message corresponding to the amount of increase is sent to the production management system 3 of the normal equipment 2. Therefore, when a malfunction occurs in the malfunctioning equipment 2, the amount of production reduction until it is recovered can be compensated for by the normal equipment 2, thereby maintaining the production volume of the target product and, consequently, the production volume of the final product in the supply chain 10.

[0087] Furthermore, production condition data for normal equipment 2 is received, and the amount of production increase for normal equipment 2 is determined based on the received production condition data and the predicted production decrease. This allows the amount of production increase to be determined in accordance with the actual conditions of normal equipment 2.

[0088] Furthermore, production condition data, including the amount of increased production possible in normal equipment 2, is received, and the amount of increased production in normal equipment 2 is set to be less than or equal to the amount of increased production possible. This allows for the determination of a feasible increase in production and ensures that the production volume of the target product is maintained.

[0089] Furthermore, since the production conditions include the operating rate, it is possible to determine the increased production volume according to the operating rate of the normal equipment 2.

[0090] Furthermore, since the production conditions include a maintenance plan, the amount of increased production can be determined in accordance with the maintenance plan for normal equipment 2. Therefore, when maintenance is scheduled for normal equipment 2, the amount of increased production can be determined to compensate for the reduction in production due to that maintenance, thereby ensuring that the production volume of the target product is maintained.

[0091] Furthermore, since production conditions include production costs, it is possible to determine the increase in production volume in accordance with production costs. Therefore, it is possible to reduce the increase in production volume for equipment with high production costs and increase it for equipment with low production costs.

[0092] Furthermore, since production costs include the cost of shipping the products, it is possible to determine the increased production volume in accordance with the production costs, including shipping costs.

[0093] Furthermore, when the malfunctioning equipment 2 is restored, a compensatory production increase is determined, which is greater than the production volume of the target product that would have been scheduled for the period from the present if the malfunction had not occurred. A production increase instruction message corresponding to this compensatory production increase is then sent to the production management system 3 of the malfunctioning equipment 2. Therefore, the malfunctioning equipment 2, which has recovered from the malfunction, can increase production, compensating for the load on the normal equipment 2 caused by the increased production during the restoration period. Thus, it is possible to prevent the maintenance plan of the normal equipment 2 from being changed due to the increased production during the restoration period, and to eliminate the need for raw material inventory adjustments in the normal equipment 2 due to the increased production during the restoration period.

[0094] Furthermore, when a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume for compensation is sent to the production management system 3 of the malfunctioning equipment 2, a production decrease instruction message for compensation is sent to the production management system 3 of the normal equipment 2. This allows for compensation of the load on the normal equipment 2 caused by the increased production during the recovery period.

[0095] Furthermore, if the malfunctioning equipment 2 fails to recover, the amount of production reduction needed for extension at the malfunctioning equipment 2 is determined and transmitted to the production management system 3 of the malfunctioning equipment 3. Therefore, the resources allocated to the recovery of the malfunctioning equipment 2 can be increased, and the recovery can be expedited.

[0096] Furthermore, if the malfunctioning equipment 2 is not restored, the amount of increased production for extension in the normal equipment 2 is re-determined, and a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production amount for extension is resent to the production management system 3 of the normal equipment 2. Therefore, even if the malfunctioning equipment 2 is not restored, the production volume of the target product can be maintained.

[0097] (operation) Figure 4 shows the operation of production system 1. The production management system 3 of the malfunctioning equipment 2 (also referred to as production management system 3X), the production management system 3 of the normal equipment 2 (also referred to as production management system 3Y), and the integrated management system 4 maintain the production volume of the final product in the supply chain 10 by performing the processes in steps S101 to S307. Although not shown in this figure, each production management system 3 may sequentially acquire status data of the target equipment 2 using the acquisition unit 30 and detect the status of the target equipment 2 using the detection unit 31.

[0098] In step S101, the production management system 3X detects an abnormality in the target equipment 2 based on the status data using the detection unit 31.

[0099] In step S103, the production management system 3X predicts the recovery time using the model output from the learning model 322 via the prediction unit 33. The prediction unit 33 may predict the recovery time using the model output from the learning model 322 in response to the input of state data when an anomaly was detected.

[0100] In step S105, the production management system 3X transmits recovery time data, indicating the recovery time, to the integrated management system 4 via the transmission unit 34.

[0101] In step S201, the integrated management system 4 acquires recovery time data from the target production management system 3X using the receiving unit 40.

[0102] In step S203, the integrated management system 4 uses the prediction unit 41 to predict the amount of production reduction of the target product in the malfunctioning equipment 2 using the recovery time data.

[0103] In step S205, the integrated management system 4 transmits a production condition request message to the production management system 3Y of each normal equipment 2 via the transmission unit 43.

[0104] In step S301, the production management system 3Y transmits the production condition data of the target equipment 2 (in this case, normal equipment 2) to the integrated management system 4 via the control unit 37 and the transmission unit 34.

[0105] In step S207, the integrated management system 4, using the decision unit 42, determines the amount of increased production of each normal equipment 2 based on the predicted deduction amount and the production condition data of each normal equipment 2.

[0106] In step S209, the integrated management system 4 transmits a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume to the production management system 3Y of each normal equipment 2 via the transmission unit 43.

[0107] In step S303, each production management system 3Y controls the normal equipment 2 via the control unit 37 to achieve the increased production amount indicated by the increased production instruction message. As a result, increased production is carried out in each normal equipment 2.

[0108] Meanwhile, in step S107, the production management system 3X of the malfunctioning equipment 2 detects, based on the status data, that the equipment 2 is normal, that is, that it has recovered from the malfunction, using the detection unit 31. In this figure, as an example, an example in which the malfunctioning equipment 2 recovered within the standard time after the malfunction occurred is explained.

[0109] In step S109, the production management system 3X notifies the integrated management system 4 via the transmission unit 34 that the target equipment 2 has been restored.

[0110] In step S211, the integrated management system 4, using its decision unit 42, determines the amount of increased production for compensation at the malfunctioning equipment 2 and the amount of decreased production for compensation at each of the normal equipment 2.

[0111] In step S213, the integrated management system 4 transmits a compensatory production increase instruction message to the production management system 3X, indicating the amount of compensatory production increase, and a compensatory production decrease instruction message to the production management system 3Y, indicating the amount of compensatory production decrease. The compensatory production increase instruction message may indicate a first point in time when the compensatory production increase should be realized, and the compensatory production decrease instruction message may indicate a second point in time when the compensatory production decrease should be realized.

[0112] In step S113, the production management system 3X controls the malfunctioning equipment 2 after recovery via the control unit 37 to achieve the increased production amount indicated in the compensation increased production instruction message. As a result, increased production is carried out at the malfunctioning equipment 2. Then, in step S115, when the first time point arrives and the product subject to the compensation increased production amount is generated, the production management system 3X, via the control unit 37, produces the production amount according to the original production plan.

[0113] Meanwhile, in step S305, each production management system 3Y controls the normal equipment 2 via the control unit 37 to achieve the production reduction amount indicated in the compensation production reduction instruction message. As a result, production is reduced in the normal equipment 2. Then, in step S307, the second time point arrives, and when the product subject to the compensation production reduction amount is generated, the production management system 3Y, via the control unit 37, produces the production amount according to the original production plan.

[0114] According to the above operation, the recovery time is predicted using the model output output from the learning model 322 in response to the input state data when an anomaly is detected. Compared to the case where the model output is based on the input state data before and after the anomaly is detected, it is possible to predict the recovery time accurately according to the state of the equipment.

[0115] (modified version) In the above embodiment, the production management system 3 was described as having a storage unit 32, a transmission unit 34, a model generation unit 35, a reception unit 36, and a control unit 37, but it does not have to have at least one of these. If the production management system 3 does not have a storage unit 32, the data file 321 and the learning model 322 may be stored in an external storage device that can communicate with the production management system 3. If the production management system 3 does not have a transmission unit 34, the production management system 3 may display detection results from the detection unit 31, recovery time data, production speed data, production condition data, etc., on a display device. If the production management system 3 does not have a model generation unit 35, the production management system 3 may have a model acquisition unit that acquires the learning model 322 from an external learning device that generates the learning model 322 by a learning process using state data and actual recovery time as learning data. In this case as well, since the learning model 322 is generated by a learning process using state data and actual recovery time as learning data, it is possible to obtain a recovery time that is in line with the actual situation. If the production management system 3 does not have a receiving unit 36, the production management system 3 may, instead of receiving a message instructing adjustment of production volume, receive an input operation from an operator instructing adjustment of production volume, and instead of receiving a message requesting production condition data, receive an input operation from an operator requesting production condition data.

[0116] Furthermore, although the prediction unit 33 of the production management system 3 was described as predicting the recovery time using the model output output from the learning model 322 in response to the input of state data when an anomaly is detected, the recovery time may also be predicted using the model output output from the learning model 322 in response to the input of state data from the time the anomaly is detected until recovery. For example, the prediction unit 33 may sequentially input the state data acquired by the acquisition unit 30 to the learning model 322 after the detection of an anomaly and predict the recovery time. This makes it possible to predict an accurate recovery time according to the changes in state after the detection of an anomaly. When the recovery time is predicted sequentially after the occurrence of an anomaly, the recovery time of the anomaly may be associated with each state data from the time of occurrence to the time of recovery among the state data of the data file 321, and the model generation unit 35 may perform the learning process of the learning model 322 using learning data that associates the state data at each point in time from the occurrence to the recovery of the anomaly with the recovery time of the anomaly. The transmitting unit 34 may notify the integrated management system 4 of the predicted recovery time each time, and the prediction unit 41 of the integrated management system 4 may predict the amount of production reduction at the abnormal control equipment 2 each time the recovery time is notified. The determination unit 42 of the integrated management system 4 may determine the amount of production increase for each normal equipment 2 each time a production reduction is predicted, and the transmitting unit 43 may send a production increase instruction message corresponding to the amount of production increase to the production management system 3Y of the normal equipment 2.

[0117] Furthermore, although it has been explained that the prediction unit 33 of the production management system 3 generates recovery time data indicating the recovery time and the time when the anomaly occurred, the recovery time data does not necessarily have to indicate the time when the anomaly occurred. In this case, the period from the present time to the end of the recovery time may be considered the predicted recovery period, and the control unit 37 may generate production condition data indicating the production conditions for that period.

[0118] Furthermore, although the transmission unit 34 of the production management system 3 was described as notifying the integrated management system 4 of the production rate of products in the malfunctioning equipment 2 from the time the abnormality is detected until it is restored, in addition to this, or instead, the integrated management system 4 may also notify the integrated management system 4 of the production rate of products in the malfunctioning equipment 2 before the abnormality is detected. In these cases as well, the integrated management system 4 can easily adjust the production of the target products until it is restored. The production rate of products in the malfunctioning equipment 2 before the abnormality is detected may be the production rate of products when the malfunctioning equipment 2 is functioning normally, and may be set in advance in the production plan. When the production rate before abnormality detection and the production rate from abnormality detection to restoration are notified, the prediction unit 41 of the integrated management system 4 may calculate the amount of production reduction of products in the malfunctioning equipment 2 within the restoration time by multiplying the difference between the two by the restoration time indicated in the restoration time data. If the production speed before the anomaly detection is notified, but the production speed from the anomaly detection to recovery is not notified, the prediction unit 41 of the integrated management system 4 may calculate the amount of reduced production at the equipment 2 where the anomaly occurred within the recovery time by multiplying the production speed before the anomaly detection by the recovery time indicated by the recovery time data. This reduced production amount may be the amount of reduced production when the equipment 2 where the anomaly occurred becomes unable to produce products due to the anomaly.

[0119] Furthermore, although the learning model 322 was described as outputting recovery time in response to state data input, it may also output data indicating the location of the anomaly, or data indicating the repair process required to recover from the anomaly. The prediction unit 33 may use such model outputs to predict the recovery time. As an example, the prediction unit 33 may predict the recovery time using a table that associates recovery time with the location of the anomaly and the repair process.

[0120] Furthermore, although it has been explained that each production management system 3 manages a single piece of equipment 2, it may also manage multiple pieces of equipment 2 that produce the same target product, or it may manage multiple pieces of equipment 2 that produce different target products.

[0121] Furthermore, although it was explained that the receiving unit 40 of the integrated management system 4 receives production condition data from the production management system 3 of the normal equipment 2, it may also receive it from the normal equipment 2.

[0122] Furthermore, although it has been explained that the receiving unit 40 of the integrated management system 4 receives the production speed of the target product from the production management system 3 of the malfunctioning equipment 2, it is not necessary to receive this information. In this case, the prediction unit 41 may calculate the amount of production reduction of the malfunctioning equipment 2 within the recovery time by multiplying the production speed predetermined in the production plan of the malfunctioning equipment 2 by the recovery time indicated by the recovery time data. This amount of production reduction may be the amount of production reduction when the malfunctioning equipment 2 becomes unable to produce the product due to the malfunction.

[0123] Furthermore, although the receiving unit 40 of the integrated management system 4 was described as receiving production condition data from the production management system 3 of the normal equipment 2, it does not have to receive it. In this case, the decision unit 42 may determine the amount of increased production for the normal equipment 2 based on the production condition data that has been stored in advance for the normal equipment 2.

[0124] Furthermore, although it has been explained that the transmission unit 43 of the integrated management system 4 sends a compensatory production increase instruction message to the production management system 3X and a compensatory production decrease instruction message to the production management system 3Y when the malfunctioning equipment 2 is restored, if no compensation is provided for the malfunctioning equipment 2, a production increase termination message instructing the end of the production increase may be sent to the production management system 3Y. In this case, the production management system 3X of the malfunctioning equipment 2 may return the production speed of the malfunctioning equipment 2 to the speed before the malfunction in accordance with the restoration. The production management system 3Y of the normal equipment 2 may return the production speed of the normal equipment 2 to the speed before the malfunction in accordance with the production increase termination message. This allows each piece of equipment 2 to be returned to its production state before the malfunction in accordance with the restoration.

[0125] Various embodiments of the present invention may be described with reference to flowcharts and block diagrams, where a block may represent (1) a stage in a process in which an operation is performed or (2) a section of a device having the role of performing the operation. Specific stages and sections may be implemented by dedicated circuits, programmable circuits supplied with computer-readable instructions stored on a computer-readable medium, and / or processors supplied with computer-readable instructions stored on a computer-readable medium. Dedicated circuits may include digital and / or analog hardware circuits, and may include integrated circuits (ICs) and / or discrete circuits. Programmable circuits may include reconfigurable hardware circuits, including logical AND, logical OR, logical XOR, logical NAND, logical NOR, and other logic operations, flip-flops, registers, memory elements such as field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), programmable logic arrays (PLAs), etc.

[0126] Computer-readable media may include any tangible device capable of storing instructions to be executed by a suitable device, and as a result, computer-readable media having instructions stored therein will comprise a product containing instructions that can be executed to create means for performing operations specified in a flowchart or block diagram. Examples of computer-readable media may include electronic storage media, magnetic storage media, optical storage media, electromagnetic storage media, semiconductor storage media, etc. More specific examples of computer-readable media may include floppy disks, diskettes, hard disks, random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), static random access memory (SRAM), compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), digital versatile disk (DVD), Blu-ray (RTM) disk, memory stick, integrated circuit card, etc.

[0127] Computer-readable instructions may include assembler instructions, instruction set architecture (ISA) instructions, machine instructions, machine-dependent instructions, microcode, firmware instructions, state setting data, or source code or object code written in any combination of one or more programming languages, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Smalltalk®, Java®, C++, and traditional procedural programming languages ​​such as the C programming language or similar programming languages.

[0128] Computer-readable instructions are provided locally or via a wide area network (WAN) such as a local area network (LAN) or the internet to the processor or programmable circuit of a programmable data processing device such as a computer, and may be executed to create means for performing operations specified in a flowchart or block diagram. Here, the computer may be a PC (personal computer), tablet computer, smartphone, workstation, server computer, general-purpose computer, or special-purpose computer, and may also be a computer system in which multiple computers are connected. Such a computer system in which multiple computers are connected is also called a distributed computing system and is a computer in a broad sense. In a distributed computing system, multiple computers execute a program by having each computer execute a part of the program and by passing data during program execution between computers as needed.

[0129] Examples of processors include computer processors, central processing units (CPUs), processing units, microprocessors, digital signal processors, controllers, and microcontrollers. A computer may have one or more processors. In a multiprocessor system with multiple processors, each processor executes a portion of the program, and the processors collectively execute the program by passing program execution data between them as needed. For example, in the execution of multitasking, each of the multiple processors may execute a portion of each task in small chunks by switching tasks at each time slice. In this case, which part of a program each processor executes changes dynamically. Which part of a program each of the multiple processors executes may also be statically determined by multiprocessor-aware programming.

[0130] Figure 5 shows an example of a computer 1200 in which multiple aspects of the present invention may be embodied in whole or in part. A program installed on the computer 1200 can cause the computer 1200 to function as an operation or one or more sections of an apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention, or to execute such operation or one or more sections, and / or to cause the computer 1200 to execute a process or a stage of such process according to an embodiment of the present invention. Such a program may be executed by the CPU 1212 to cause the computer 1200 to perform a particular operation associated with some or all of the blocks in the flowcharts and block diagrams described herein.

[0131] The computer 1200 according to this embodiment includes a CPU 1212, RAM 1214, a graphics controller 1216, and a display device 1218, which are interconnected by a host controller 1210. The computer 1200 also includes input / output units such as a communication interface 1222, a hard disk drive 1224, a DVD-ROM drive 1226, and an IC card drive, which are connected to the host controller 1210 via an input / output controller 1220. The computer also includes legacy input / output units such as a ROM 1230 and a keyboard 1242, which are connected to the input / output controller 1220 via an input / output chip 1240.

[0132] The CPU 1212 operates according to programs stored in the ROM 1230 and RAM 1214, thereby controlling each unit. The graphics controller 1216 acquires image data generated by the CPU 1212 from a frame buffer provided in RAM 1214 or from itself, and displays the image data on the display device 1218.

[0133] The communication interface 1222 communicates with other electronic devices via a network. The hard disk drive 1224 stores programs and data used by the CPU 1212 in the computer 1200. The DVD-ROM drive 1226 reads programs or data from the DVD-ROM 1201 and provides them to the hard disk drive 1224 via the RAM 1214. The IC card drive reads programs and data from the IC card and / or writes programs and data to the IC card.

[0134] The ROM 1230 stores boot programs and / or programs that depend on the computer 1200's hardware, which are executed by the computer 1200 when activated. The input / output chip 1240 may also connect various input / output units to the input / output controller 1220 via a parallel port, serial port, keyboard port, mouse port, etc.

[0135] The program is provided on a computer-readable medium such as a DVD-ROM 1201 or an IC card. The program is read from the computer-readable medium and installed on a hard disk drive 1224, RAM 1214, or ROM 1230, which are also examples of computer-readable medium, and executed by the CPU 1212. The information processing described within these programs is read by the computer 1200, resulting in coordination between the program and the various types of hardware resources described above. The apparatus or method may be configured to realize the manipulation or processing of information in accordance with the use of the computer 1200.

[0136] For example, when communication is performed between a computer 1200 and an external device, the CPU 1212 may execute a communication program loaded into RAM 1214 and, based on the processing described in the communication program, instruct the communication interface 1222 to perform communication processing. Under the control of the CPU 1212, the communication interface 1222 reads transmission data stored in a transmission buffer processing area provided in a recording medium such as RAM 1214, a hard disk drive 1224, a DVD-ROM 1201, or an IC card, transmits the read transmission data to the network, or writes received data received from the network to a reception buffer processing area provided on the recording medium.

[0137] Furthermore, the CPU 1212 may read all or necessary parts of a file or database stored on an external recording medium such as a hard disk drive 1224, a DVD-ROM drive 1226 (DVD-ROM 1201), or an IC card into the RAM 1214, and perform various types of processing on the data in the RAM 1214. The CPU 1212 then writes the processed data back to the external recording medium.

[0138] Various types of information, such as various types of programs, data, tables, and databases, may be stored on the recording medium and subjected to information processing. The CPU 1212 may perform various types of processing on the data read from RAM 1214, including various types of operations, information processing, conditional judgments, conditional branching, unconditional branching, information retrieval / replacement, etc., as described throughout this disclosure and specified by the program instruction sequence, and write the results back to RAM 1214. The CPU 1212 may also retrieve information in files, databases, etc., within the recording medium. For example, if multiple entries are stored in the recording medium, each having an attribute value of a first attribute associated with an attribute value of a second attribute, the CPU 1212 may search among the multiple entries for an entry that matches the condition for which the attribute value of the first attribute is specified, read the attribute value of the second attribute stored in that entry, and thereby obtain the attribute value of the second attribute associated with the first attribute that satisfies a predetermined condition.

[0139] The programs or software modules described above may be stored on or near computer 1200 on a computer-readable medium. Alternatively, recording media such as hard disks or RAM provided within a server system connected to a dedicated communication network or the Internet can be used as computer-readable media, thereby providing programs to computer 1200 via the network.

[0140] Although the present invention has been described above using embodiments, the technical scope of the present invention is not limited to the scope described in the above embodiments. It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various modifications or improvements can be made to the above embodiments. It will be clear from the claims that such modified or improved forms may also be included in the technical scope of the present invention.

[0141] It should be noted that the execution order of operations, procedures, steps, and stages in the apparatus, systems, programs, and methods shown in the claims, specifications, and drawings is not explicitly stated as "before," "prior to," etc., and that these can be implemented in any order unless the output of a previous process is used in a later process. Even if the operation flow in the claims, specifications, and drawings is described using phrases such as "first," "next," etc. for convenience, it does not mean that it is essential to perform the operations in that order. [Explanation of symbols]

[0142] 1. Production System 2 Equipment 3. Production Management System 4. Integrated Management System 10. Supply Chain 30 Acquisition Department 31 Detection unit 32 Storage section 33 Prediction Section 34 Transmitter 35 Model Generation Unit 36 Receiving Unit 37 Control Unit 40 Receiver 41 Prediction Section 42 Decision Section 43 Transmitter 321 Data files 322 Learning Models 1200 Computers 1201 DVD-ROM 1210 Host Controller 1212 CPU 1214 RAM 1216 Graphics Controller 1218 Display Devices 1220 Input / Output Controller 1222 Communication Interface 1224 Hard Disk Drive 1226 DVD-ROM drive 1230 ROM 1240 input / output chip 1242 keyboard

Claims

1. When an abnormality occurs in one of several pieces of equipment that produce various products, an acquisition unit acquires recovery time data, which indicates the estimated recovery time required for the said one piece of equipment to be restored, from a production management system that manages production in said one piece of equipment. A prediction unit that uses the recovery time data to predict the amount of production reduction of the product in one of the facilities, A determination unit that determines the amount of increased production of the product in the other equipment based on the aforementioned reduction in production volume and production condition data indicating the production conditions in the other equipment among the plurality of equipment that is different from the one equipment, A transmission unit that sends a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume to another production management system that manages production at the other equipment, Equipped with, The decision unit, in response to the restoration of the first piece of equipment, determines an additional production volume that will increase the production of the said product beyond the production volume that would have been planned for the first piece of equipment during the period from the present time if the abnormality had not occurred. The transmission unit is an integrated management system that transmits a production increase instruction message corresponding to the other production increase to the first production management system.

2. The determination unit, in response to the restoration of the first piece of equipment, determines the amount by which the production of the product will be reduced from the production amount that would have been planned for the other piece of equipment during the period from the present time if the abnormality had not occurred. The integrated management system according to claim 1, wherein the transmitting unit transmits a production reduction instruction message corresponding to the production reduction amount to the other production management system in response to transmitting the production increase instruction message to the first production management system.

3. When an abnormality occurs in one of several pieces of equipment that produce various products, an acquisition unit acquires recovery time data, which indicates the estimated recovery time required for the said one piece of equipment to be restored, from a production management system that manages production in said one piece of equipment. A prediction unit that uses the recovery time data to predict the amount of production reduction of the product in one of the facilities, A determination unit that determines the amount of increased production of the product in the other equipment based on the aforementioned reduction in production volume and production condition data indicating the production conditions in the other equipment among the plurality of equipment that is different from the one equipment, A transmission unit that sends a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume to another production management system that manages production at the other equipment, Equipped with, The determination unit determines the amount of reduction in production of the product in the equipment if the equipment is not restored within a predetermined standard time. The transmitting unit is an integrated management system that transmits a production reduction instruction message corresponding to the production reduction amount to the first production management system.

4. When an abnormality occurs in one of several pieces of equipment that produce various products, an acquisition unit acquires recovery time data, which indicates the estimated recovery time required for the said one piece of equipment to be restored, from a production management system that manages production in said one piece of equipment. A prediction unit that uses the recovery time data to predict the amount of production reduction of the product in one of the facilities, A determination unit that determines the amount of increased production of the product in the other equipment based on the aforementioned reduction in production volume and production condition data indicating the production conditions in the other equipment among the plurality of equipment that is different from the one equipment, A transmission unit that sends a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume to another production management system that manages production at the other equipment, Equipped with, The determination unit, if the first piece of equipment is not restored within a predetermined standard time, re-determines the increased production volume for the other piece of equipment. The transmission unit is an integrated management system that retransmits a production increase instruction message corresponding to the re-determined production increase to the other production management system.

5. When an abnormality occurs in one of several pieces of equipment that produce various products, an acquisition unit acquires recovery time data, which indicates the estimated recovery time required for the said one piece of equipment to be restored, from a production management system that manages production in said one piece of equipment. A prediction unit that uses the recovery time data to predict the amount of production reduction of the product in one of the facilities, A determination unit that determines the amount of increased production of the product in the other equipment based on the aforementioned reduction in production volume and production condition data indicating the production conditions in the other equipment among the plurality of equipment that is different from the one equipment, A transmission unit that sends a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume to another production management system that manages production at the other equipment, Equipped with, The aforementioned production conditions include production costs, The aforementioned decision unit is an integrated management system that determines the amount of increased production only for equipment among a plurality of other pieces of equipment whose production cost is lower than the standard cost.

6. The integrated management system according to claim 5, wherein the production cost includes the shipping cost of shipping the product to the destination.

7. The aforementioned production conditions include the amount of production that can be increased in other facilities. The integrated management system according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the determination unit determines that the increased production volume of the product in the other equipment is less than or equal to the amount of the product that can be increased in the other equipment.

8. The integrated management system according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the production conditions include the operating rate.

9. The integrated management system according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the production conditions include a maintenance plan.

10. The system includes a receiving unit that receives the production condition data for the other equipment, The integrated management system according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the determination unit determines the increased production amount in the other equipment based on the reduced production amount and the received production condition data.

11. The integrated management system according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the transmitting unit transmits a production completion message to the other production management system when the first piece of equipment is restored.

12. Computers When an abnormality occurs in one of several pieces of equipment that produce different products, recovery time data indicating the estimated recovery time required for the said piece of equipment to be restored is obtained from a production management system that manages production in said piece of equipment. Using the recovery time data, predict the amount of production reduction of the product in the first facility, Based on the aforementioned reduction in production volume and production condition data indicating the production conditions in the other equipment among the multiple pieces of equipment, the amount of increased production volume of the product in the other equipment is determined. Sending a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume to another production management system that manages production at the other equipment, Equipped with, In making the above decision, in accordance with the restoration of the first piece of equipment, an additional amount of production of the said product will be determined that will be greater than the amount of production of the said product that would have been planned for the time period from the present moment if the abnormality had not occurred in that piece of equipment. An integrated management method that, by transmitting, sends a production increase instruction message corresponding to the other increased production volume to the production management system.

13. Computers When an abnormality occurs in one of several pieces of equipment that produce different products, recovery time data indicating the estimated recovery time required for the said piece of equipment to be restored is obtained from a production management system that manages production in said piece of equipment. Using the recovery time data, predict the amount of production reduction of the product in the first facility, Based on the aforementioned reduction in production volume and production condition data indicating the production conditions in the other equipment among the multiple pieces of equipment, the amount of increased production volume of the product in the other equipment is determined. Sending a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume to another production management system that manages production at the other equipment, Equipped with, In making the above decision, if the equipment in question is not restored within a predetermined standard time, the amount of reduction in production of the product in the equipment in question will be determined. The aforementioned transmission is an integrated management method that sends a production reduction instruction message corresponding to the production reduction amount to the production management system.

14. Computers When an abnormality occurs in one of several pieces of equipment that produce different products, recovery time data indicating the estimated recovery time required for the said piece of equipment to be restored is obtained from a production management system that manages production in said piece of equipment. Using the recovery time data, predict the amount of production reduction of the product in the first facility, Based on the aforementioned reduction in production volume and production condition data indicating the production conditions in the other equipment among the multiple pieces of equipment, the amount of increased production volume of the product in the other equipment is determined. Sending a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume to another production management system that manages production at the other equipment, Equipped with, In making the above decision, if the first piece of equipment is not restored within a predetermined standard time, the amount of increased production at the other piece of equipment will be re-determined. The aforementioned transmission is an integrated management method that resends a production increase instruction message corresponding to the re-determined production increase to the other production management system.

15. Computers When an abnormality occurs in one of several pieces of equipment that produce different products, recovery time data indicating the estimated recovery time required for the said piece of equipment to be restored is obtained from a production management system that manages production in said piece of equipment. Using the recovery time data, predict the amount of production reduction of the product in the first facility, Based on the aforementioned reduction in production volume and production condition data indicating the production conditions in the other equipment among the multiple pieces of equipment, the amount of increased production volume of the product in the other equipment is determined. Sending a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume to another production management system that manages production at the other equipment, Equipped with, The aforementioned production conditions include production costs, The aforementioned determination is an integrated management method in which the amount of increased production is determined only for the equipment among the multiple other pieces of equipment whose production cost is lower than the standard cost.

16. It is executed by a computer, and the computer, When an abnormality occurs in one of several pieces of equipment that produce various products, an acquisition unit acquires recovery time data, which indicates the estimated recovery time required for the said one piece of equipment to be restored, from a production management system that manages production in said one piece of equipment. A prediction unit that uses the recovery time data to predict the amount of production reduction of the product in one of the facilities, A determination unit that determines the amount of increased production of the product in the other equipment based on the amount of reduced production and production condition data indicating the production conditions in the other equipment among the plurality of equipment, A transmission unit that sends a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume to another production management system that manages production at the other equipment, and make it work The decision unit, in response to the restoration of the first piece of equipment, determines an additional production volume that will increase the production of the said product beyond the production volume that would have been planned for the first piece of equipment during the period from the present time if the abnormality had not occurred. The transmitting unit is an integrated management program that transmits a production increase instruction message corresponding to the other production increase volume to the first production management system.

17. It is executed by a computer, and the computer, When an abnormality occurs in one of several pieces of equipment that produce various products, an acquisition unit acquires recovery time data, which indicates the estimated recovery time required for the said one piece of equipment to be restored, from a production management system that manages production in said one piece of equipment. A prediction unit that uses the recovery time data to predict the amount of production reduction of the product in one of the facilities, A determination unit that determines the amount of increased production of the product in the other equipment based on the amount of reduced production and production condition data indicating the production conditions in the other equipment among the plurality of equipment, A transmission unit that sends a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume to another production management system that manages production at the other equipment, and make it work The determination unit determines the amount of reduction in production of the product in the equipment if the equipment is not restored within a predetermined standard time. The transmitting unit is an integrated management program that transmits a production reduction instruction message corresponding to the production reduction amount to the production management system.

18. It is executed by a computer, and the computer, When an abnormality occurs in one of several pieces of equipment that produce various products, an acquisition unit acquires recovery time data, which indicates the estimated recovery time required for the said one piece of equipment to be restored, from a production management system that manages production in said one piece of equipment. A prediction unit that uses the recovery time data to predict the amount of production reduction of the product in one of the facilities, A determination unit that determines the amount of increased production of the product in the other equipment based on the amount of reduced production and production condition data indicating the production conditions in the other equipment among the plurality of equipment, A transmission unit that sends a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume to another production management system that manages production at the other equipment, and make it work The determination unit, if the first piece of equipment is not restored within a predetermined standard time, re-determines the increased production volume for the other piece of equipment. The transmission unit is an integrated management program that retransmits a production increase instruction message corresponding to the re-determined production increase to the other production management system.

19. It is executed by a computer, and the computer, When an abnormality occurs in one of several pieces of equipment that produce various products, an acquisition unit acquires recovery time data, which indicates the estimated recovery time required for the said one piece of equipment to be restored, from a production management system that manages production in said one piece of equipment. A prediction unit that uses the recovery time data to predict the amount of production reduction of the product in one of the facilities, A determination unit that determines the amount of increased production of the product in the other equipment based on the amount of reduced production and production condition data indicating the production conditions in the other equipment among the plurality of equipment, A transmission unit that sends a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production volume to another production management system that manages production at the other equipment, and make it work The aforementioned production conditions include production costs, The aforementioned decision unit is an integrated management program that determines the amount of increased production only for the equipment among the multiple other pieces of equipment whose production cost is lower than the standard cost.

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