Fuel evaluation system and fuel evaluation method
The fuel evaluation system and method address fuel pricing fluctuations by predicting process values and estimating prices using machine learning, ensuring accurate profitability and operational suitability assessments in power generation plants.
Patent Information
- Authority / Receiving Office
- JP · JP
- Patent Type
- Patents
- Current Assignee / Owner
- MITSUBISHI HEAVY IND LTD
- Filing Date
- 2021-01-04
- Publication Date
- 2026-06-29
- Estimated Expiration
- Not applicable · inactive patent
AI Technical Summary
Traditional fuel pricing methods, such as cost-based pricing, struggle to account for fluctuating fuel prices and power generation costs due to spot pricing, making it difficult to evaluate profitability and other factors accurately in power generation plants.
A fuel evaluation system and method that includes a fuel information acquisition unit, simulation unit, and calculation unit to predict process values and estimate fuel prices based on economic information and power plant operations, using machine learning to simulate different operating modes and calculate an estimated fuel price considering various costs.
Enables accurate evaluation of fuel economic value, allowing power plants to determine suitable fuels for profitability and operational suitability, and assess the appropriateness of offered prices by comparing estimated prices with actual prices.
Smart Images
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Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The present disclosure relates to a fuel evaluation system and a fuel evaluation method.
Background Art
[0002] In a power generation plant, power generation is performed by consuming fuel. The fuel is sold to a power generation company, which is a user of the power generation plant, based on a price set by a fuel supply company. For example, for coal fuel used in a thermal power plant, a so-called cost-based price setting is made considering costs related to mining, transportation, etc. The power generation company determines the type of fuel to be purchased by considering the profitability, etc. when used in the power generation plant, by examining the properties and prices for each type of fuel.
[0003] Such fuel prices are generally presented by the fuel supply company and consider the costs of the fuel supply company side such as mining and transportation. On the other hand, when using the fuel in a power generation plant, transportation costs for transporting the purchased fuel to related facilities and usage costs of the related facilities are also required. In contrast, in Patent Document 1, a coal evaluation trading system for effectively selecting the fuel to be traded by evaluating the economy of the fuel considering each cost incurred after purchasing from the fuel supply company is disclosed.
Prior Art Documents
Patent Documents
[0004]
Patent Document 1
Summary of the Invention
Problems to be Solved by the Invention
[0005] Traditionally, fuel pricing was relatively stable because it was based on the aforementioned cost-based pricing. However, in recent years, fuel price fluctuations have become larger due to the increased use of spot pricing. As a result, even when using the same fuel, fuel prices can change depending on the timing of purchase, potentially causing fluctuations in power generation costs for power generators. Furthermore, even the same power plant can have various operating modes, so power generation costs can also change depending on how the power plant is operated. In the case of cost-based evaluation methods such as those described in Patent Document 1, it is difficult to appropriately evaluate profitability and other factors based on the prices set by fuel suppliers under these circumstances where power generation costs fluctuate.
[0006] At least one embodiment of this disclosure has been made in view of the above circumstances and aims to provide a fuel evaluation system and fuel evaluation method capable of evaluating the economic value of fuel. [Means for solving the problem]
[0007] A fuel evaluation system according to at least one embodiment of this disclosure solves the above problems. A fuel evaluation system for evaluating fuels used in power plants, A fuel information acquisition unit for acquiring fuel information including basic information about the fuel and additional information about economic information about the user of the power plant, A simulation unit for predicting the process values of the power plant when the aforementioned fuel is used, A calculation unit for calculating the estimated price of the fuel based on the fuel information and the prediction results of the process values by the simulation unit, It is equipped with.
[0008] A fuel evaluation method according to at least one embodiment of this disclosure solves the above problem, A fuel evaluation method for evaluating fuels used in power plants, A step of acquiring fuel information, including basic information regarding the fuel and additional information regarding economic information regarding the user of the power plant, A step of predicting the process values of the power plant when the aforementioned fuel is used, A step of calculating the estimated price of the fuel based on the fuel information and the predicted results of the process values, It is equipped with. [Effects of the Invention]
[0009] According to at least one embodiment of this disclosure, a fuel evaluation system and fuel evaluation method capable of evaluating the economic value of fuel can be provided. [Brief explanation of the drawing]
[0010] [Figure 1] This is an explanatory diagram showing the operating environment of the fuel evaluation system according to at least one embodiment of the present disclosure. [Figure 2] This is an example of fuel information provided by a fuel supplier to a power generation company. [Figure 3] This block diagram shows the configuration of a fuel evaluation system according to one embodiment. [Figure 4] This is an example of additional information added to the fuel information. [Figure 5] Figure 3 is a block diagram showing the internal configuration of the simulation unit. [Figure 6] Figure 3 is a flowchart schematically showing the arithmetic processing in the arithmetic unit. [Figure 7] Figure 6 shows an example of the calculation result obtained. [Figure 8] This flowchart shows a fuel evaluation method according to one embodiment. [Modes for carrying out the invention]
[0011] Hereinafter, some embodiments of the present disclosure will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, the dimensions, materials, shapes, relative arrangements, etc. of the components described as embodiments or shown in the drawings are not intended to limit the scope of the present disclosure, but are merely illustrative examples. For example, expressions representing relative or absolute arrangements such as "in a certain direction", "along a certain direction", "parallel", "orthogonal", "center", "concentric", or "coaxial" not only strictly represent such arrangements, but also represent states where there are tolerances or relative displacements with angles and distances that can achieve the same function. For example, expressions representing that things such as "identical", "equal", and "homogeneous" are in an equal state not only strictly represent an equal state, but also represent states where there are tolerances or differences that can achieve the same function. For example, expressions representing shapes such as a rectangular shape or a cylindrical shape not only represent shapes such as a rectangular shape or a cylindrical shape in a geometrically strict sense, but also represent shapes including concave and convex portions, chamfered portions, etc. within a range where the same effect can be obtained. On the other hand, expressions such as "comprising", "having", "including", or "possessing" one component are not exclusive expressions that exclude the existence of other components.
[0012] First, referring to FIG. 1, the usage environment of the fuel evaluation system 100 according to at least one embodiment of the present disclosure will be described. FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram showing the usage environment of the fuel evaluation system 100 according to at least one embodiment of the present disclosure.
[0013] The power generation company 1 is a company that operates a power generation plant and is the user of the fuel evaluation system 100. The power generation company 1 purchases fuel from the fuel supply company 2 and operates the power generation plant using the fuel. The fuel supply company 2 generally deals with multiple types of fuel and supplies (sells) the type of fuel according to the request from the power generation company 1 to the power generation company 1.
[0014] The fuel supplier 2 provides the power generation company 1 with fuel information 4 regarding the prices and properties of multiple types of fuels to be handled. Here, Fig. 2 is an example of the fuel information 4 provided by the fuel supplier 2 to the power generation company 1. In Fig. 2, as the fuel information 4, for coal fuels such as Coal A, Coal B, Coal C, Coal D, ···, the price per unit weight (CIF (Cost, Insurance and Freight)) [￥ / ton], and the properties are respectively defined. The properties include HHV (Higher Heating Value) [kJ / kg], total moisture [%], proximate analysis (inherent moisture [%], volatile matter [%], fixed carbon [%], ash [%]), fuel ratio, ultimate analysis (C [%], H [%], O [%], N [%], S [%]) respectively.
[0015] By obtaining such provision of the fuel information 4, the power generation company 1 uses it as a criterion for selecting the types of fuels to be purchased from the fuel supplier 2. Specifically, based on the information regarding the prices included in the fuel information 4, the power generation company 1 examines the profitability, and based on the information regarding the properties, examines whether appropriate operation is possible in its own power generation plant, thereby being able to determine which fuel should be purchased from the fuel supplier 2.
[0016] By the way, the power generation company 1 has a need to use various types of fuels for risk hedging when operating the power generation plant. However, based only on the fuel information 4 provided by the fuel supplier 2, for example, regarding unknown fuels, the validity of the fuel prices presented by the fuel supplier 2 is unclear, and it is also impossible to determine whether the power generation company 1 can appropriately use the fuel in its power generation plant, and there is a problem that it is impossible to make a decision on the purchase of the fuel. Such a problem can be preferably solved by the fuel evaluation system 100 described below.
[0017] The fuel evaluation system 100 consists of, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit), RAM (Random Access Memory), ROM (Read Only Memory), and a computer-readable storage medium. A series of processes for realizing various functions are stored in the storage medium in the form of a program, for example. The CPU reads this program into the RAM and performs information processing and calculations to realize the various functions. The program may be pre-installed in the ROM or other storage medium, provided in a state where it is stored in a computer-readable storage medium, or distributed via wired or wireless communication. Computer-readable storage media include magnetic disks, magneto-optical disks, CD-ROMs, DVD-ROMs, semiconductor memory, etc.
[0018] Figure 3 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a fuel evaluation system 100 according to one embodiment. The fuel evaluation system 100 includes a fuel information acquisition unit 110, an additional information acquisition unit 120, an operation data acquisition unit 130, a simulation unit 140, a calculation unit 150, and an output unit 160. The block diagram shown in Figure 3 shows the internal configuration of the fuel evaluation system 100 as blocks according to function, corresponding to the explanation described later. These blocks may be subdivided or integrated with each other.
[0019] The fuel information acquisition unit 110 is configured to acquire the fuel information 4 (see Figure 2) mentioned above. The fuel information 4 is pre-digitized, and the fuel information acquisition unit 110 acquires the fuel information 4 as electronic information. Such fuel information 4 may be acquired in advance as electronic information from the fuel supplier 2, or it may be non-electronic fuel information 4 provided by the fuel supplier 2 that has been digitized by the power generator 1. Furthermore, the content of the fuel information 4 may be the same as that provided by the fuel supplier 2, or it may be processed by the power generator 1 as necessary.
[0020] The additional information acquisition unit 120 is configured to acquire additional information to be added to the fuel information 4. The additional information includes customer economic information for evaluating the economics of the fuel, and includes, for example, the target power generation cost expected by the power generation operator 1 for the fuel, fixed costs and indirect operating costs for operating the power plant. This additional information is entered as appropriate, for example, via an input interface such as a keyboard, mouse, and touch panel.
[0021] Figure 4 shows an example of additional information 6 added to fuel information 4. In Figure 4, in addition to the fuel information 4 shown in Figure 2, additional information 6 is shown, which includes the "target power generation cost [¥ / kWh]" set for the fuel used in the power plant, the "fixed costs [¥ / kWh]" and "indirect operating expenses [¥ / kWh]" required when operating the power plant. The target power generation cost is a set amount arbitrarily set by the power generation operator 1, fixed costs are expenses that are fixedly required to operate the power plant, such as water charges and land charges, and indirect operating expenses are expenses that are required each time to operate the power plant, such as personnel costs and management costs related to operation. Such additional information is also acquired electronically by the additional information acquisition unit 120, similar to the fuel information 4 mentioned above.
[0022] The operation data acquisition unit 130 is configured to acquire operation data 8 related to the power plant. The operation data 8 is data related to the operational performance of the power plant and is prepared in advance by being stored in a storage device such as a database. The operation data acquisition unit 130 acquires the operation data by accessing such a storage device. In addition to operational information related to the operational performance of the power plant (e.g., terminal parameters, fuel properties data, environmental data), the operation data 8 may also include economic evaluation information such as the unit price of auxiliary materials, the unit price of in-house power, and the unit price of ash disposal costs. This operation data is used as training data when building a model used in the simulation unit 140, which will be described later, using machine learning.
[0023] The simulation unit 140 is configured to simulate the operating state of a power plant. Specifically, the simulation unit 140 has at least one model corresponding to a power plant, and by inputting predetermined input parameters to this model, it obtains at least one process value related to the power plant as a simulation result.
[0024] Here, we will explain the specific details of the simulation processing in the simulation unit 140. Figure 5 is a block diagram showing the internal configuration of the simulation unit 140 in Figure 3. The simulation unit 140 comprises a model calculation unit 142, an optimization unit 144, an operating condition setting unit 146, and a process value output unit 148.
[0025] The model calculation unit 142 performs simulation calculations using at least one model that simulates a power plant. The model used in the model calculation unit 142 is constructed using machine learning with artificial intelligence (AI), with the operation data 8 acquired by the operation data acquisition unit 130 as training data. If a pre-constructed model exists, the model calculation unit 142 may update the model based on the operation data 8 acquired by the operation data acquisition unit 130.
[0026] The model calculation unit 142 may have multiple models prepared for use in the simulation calculation. In this case, the model calculation unit 142 can perform the simulation calculation based on one model selected from the multiple models. The multiple models may be constructed for multiple power plants, or they may be constructed to simulate the case when a specific power plant is subjected to a predetermined change (such as an improvement or modification). In the latter case, it is possible to simulate the behavior of a power plant when an improvement is made to it without actually building the plant. For example, if a power plant is modified to use a certain type of fuel, it becomes possible to evaluate the profitability of the change based on the estimated price of the fuel.
[0027] The model calculation unit 142 calculates process values as simulation results by providing predetermined input parameters to such a model. For example, by providing terminal parameters, fuel property data, and environmental data as input parameters, process values such as NOx concentration and unburned components can be obtained as simulation results. The optimization unit 144 calculates evaluation values based on the process values obtained by the model calculation unit 142, and calculates the optimal values of the input parameters based on these evaluation values.
[0028] The calculation of the optimal value in the optimization unit 144 is performed based on multiple process values obtained in the model calculation unit 142. Typically, the optimal value is calculated by adding the multiple process values with predetermined weights. These weights may be set for each operating mode of the power plant. In this embodiment, the types of operating modes that the power plant can implement include controllability mode, emission mode, durability mode, economy mode, and balance mode. The controllability mode is an operating mode that prioritizes the margin of response values such as burner tilt and damper opening provided by the power plant. The emission mode is an operating mode that prioritizes the concentration of NOx and CO emitted from the power plant. The durability mode is an operating mode that prioritizes metal temperature and steam temperature deviation. The economy mode is an operating mode that prioritizes the running cost of the power plant. The balance mode is an operating mode that prioritizes the balance of the above four types of modes.
[0029] The operating condition setting unit 146 sets the operating conditions from the set of operating terminal parameters optimized by the optimization unit 144. By adopting these set operating conditions in the actual power plant, it becomes possible to operate the power plant using operating terminal parameters that yield the optimal evaluation. The process value output unit 148 outputs a set of predicted process values using the set of operating terminal parameters optimized by the optimization unit 144 as the simulation result of the simulation unit 140.
[0030] Returning to Figure 3, the calculation unit 150 is configured to evaluate the fuel based on the fuel information acquired by the fuel information acquisition unit 110, the additional information acquired by the additional information acquisition unit 120, and the simulation results from the simulation unit 140. Here, Figure 6 is a schematic flowchart showing the calculation process in the calculation unit 150 in Figure 3, and Figure 7 is an example of the calculation result obtained in Figure 6.
[0031] The calculation unit 150 is given fuel information 4, additional information 6, and simulation results (a set of predicted process values) as input parameters, and the calculation results include "estimated fuel unit price," "gap with estimated unit price," "suitability for use determination," "other operational evaluation indicators," "ash disposal costs," "accessory material and power costs," and "ease of use costs."
[0032] The "estimated fuel price" is an estimated value of the fuel price per unit weight, and is calculated by subtracting overhead costs from the target power generation cost of the power plant. In this embodiment, overhead costs include direct operating costs, indirect operating costs, fixed costs, and other miscellaneous costs. That is, the estimated fuel price can be obtained, for example, by the following formula. Estimated unit price = (Target power generation cost - Direct operating expenses - Indirect operating expenses - Fixed costs - Other miscellaneous costs) × Power generation efficiency (1) Such estimated fuel unit prices can serve as a useful evaluation index indicating the value that fuel should possess to help power plant users achieve the target power generation cost necessary to ensure profitability. In this embodiment, as shown in Figure 7, the estimated fuel unit price is calculated for each type of operating mode the power plant has, and these are then combined into an estimated price range. This allows for the selection of fuel suitable for the power plant's operational policy by comparing the estimated prices corresponding to each operating mode.
[0033] The "gap with estimated unit price" indicates the gap (price difference) between the "estimated fuel unit price" and the "price (CIF)" which is the actual selling price offered by fuel supplier 2. If the gap has a positive sign, it means that the estimated price is higher than the offered price, and power generator 1 is being offered a highly profitable price by fuel supplier 2. On the other hand, if the price gap has a negative sign, it means that the estimated price is lower than the offered price, and power generator 1 is being offered a less profitable price by fuel supplier 2. Such a gap can be used as a useful evaluation indicator to examine the appropriateness of the selling price offered to users of a power plant.
[0034] The "suitability for use determination" is the result of determining whether a fuel is suitable for use in a power plant by meeting various constraints required for the operation of the power plant (required standards for power plants) when used in a power plant. For example, a power plant is subject to constraints on each component of the plant, such as burners, mills, and air heaters, as well as constraints on environmental regulations regarding various components (such as NOx) contained in the exhaust gas from the power plant. In the "suitability for use determination," if all of these constraints are met when each fuel is used in a power plant, the determination result is "acceptable (checked)." On the other hand, if at least one of these constraints is not met, the determination result is "unacceptable (unchecked)." By calculating such determination results, a useful evaluation of fuels that can be adopted in a power plant can be made based on estimated prices.
[0035] "Other operational evaluation information" is judgment information for process values necessary for stable plant operation, such as CO concentration, water wall metal temperature, main steam temperature, and main steam pressure. These must be within acceptable limits (no alarms), and are calculated as process values from various models in the simulation unit 140. The determination of whether each value is within acceptable limits is also calculated as a process value. Examples of the aforementioned "other miscellaneous costs" include "ash disposal costs," "accessory material and power costs," and "ease of use costs." "Ash disposal costs" are costs calculated from the ash disposal unit price and the amount of ash disposed of. The amount of ash disposed of is calculated as a process value from the ash disposal amount model in the simulation unit 140, and the ash disposal costs are calculated as the result of multiplying this by the ash disposal unit price included in the additional information 6. "Additional materials and power costs" are calculated as ammonia costs, which are the amount of ammonia input to the denitrification equipment multiplied by the unit price of ammonia, and auxiliary power costs, which are the power of auxiliary equipment such as mill motors and fan power multiplied by the unit price of electricity. These are calculated as process values by the ammonia consumption model and various auxiliary power models of the simulation unit 140, and the cost calculated by multiplying these by the unit prices included in additional information 6 is calculated as the calculation result. "Ease of use costs" are calculated as process values by the air heater differential pressure (and the number of maintenance cycles calculated from that value) calculated by the air heater differential pressure model, and the process values of CO2 emissions by the CO2 model, and the cost calculated by multiplying each of these by the unit prices included in additional information 6 is calculated as the calculation result.
[0036] The calculation results from the calculation unit 150 are output as output data by the output unit 160.
[0037] Next, a fuel evaluation method performed by the fuel evaluation system 100 having the above configuration will be described. Figure 8 is a flowchart of a fuel evaluation method according to one embodiment.
[0038] First, the simulation unit 140 of the fuel evaluation system 100 loads the model to be used in the model calculation unit 142 (step S1). As mentioned above, the model loaded in step S1 is one that has been pre-constructed or updated based on the operating data 8 acquired by the operating data acquisition unit 130.
[0039] Next, the fuel evaluation system 100 reads the evaluation conditions (step S2). The evaluation conditions are the weighting conditions for process values used when the optimization unit 144 calculates the optimal value. These conditions are set for each of the five operating modes. In "Balance Mode," the weighting for all process values is set to be well-balanced, while in "Controllability Mode," the weighting for process values related to controllability (burner tilt, damper opening, etc.) is increased (sensitivity is increased). Similarly, in "Emission Mode," process values related to specific exhaust gas concentrations (NOx and CO concentrations) are weighted more heavily, in "Durability Mode," process values related to durability (metal temperature, steam temperature deviation) are weighted more heavily, and in "Economy Mode," process values related to the running cost of the power plant (combustion consumption) are weighted more heavily.
[0040] Next, the fuel information acquisition unit 110 acquires fuel information 4 (step S3), and the additional information acquisition unit 120 acquires additional information 6 (step S4). The additional information 6 includes information regarding the customer's economic situation.
[0041] Next, the simulation unit 140 calculates simulation results for the model loaded in step S1, assuming the evaluation conditions loaded in step S2, and corresponding to the fuel information 4 acquired in step S3 and the additional information 6 acquired in step S4 (step S5). In this embodiment, as mentioned above, there are five operating modes for the power plant, so simulations are performed for each operating mode.
[0042] Next, the calculation unit 150 performs evaluation calculations based on the simulation results from the simulation unit 140 (step S6). In this embodiment, as described above with reference to Figure 7, for each of the five operating modes, the following are calculated: "estimated fuel unit price," "gap with estimated unit price," "suitability for use determination," "other operating evaluation indicators," "ash disposal costs," "accessory material and power costs," and "ease of use costs." The calculation results from the calculation unit 150 are output as output data 7 by the output unit 160 (step S7).
[0043] Furthermore, the output data 7 produced in step S7 may be processed as necessary. For example, if the calculation results from the calculation unit 150 are output as numerical values, these numerical values may be ranked according to predetermined criteria, thereby processing the output data 7 to show the rank instead of the numerical values. This makes it easier to recognize the evaluation results for each fuel according to the rank when referring to the output data 7. The output data 7 produced in this way can also be used as suitable material when negotiating fuel prices with fuel suppliers, for example.
[0044] As described above, according to the above embodiment, the estimated price of fuel is calculated based on fuel information including economic information about the user of the power plant, and the predicted results of the process values of the power plant when the fuel is used. This makes it possible to determine the estimated price of fuel that is expected to be used in the power plant, assuming the economic information included in the fuel information. The estimated price of fuel thus obtained can be used as a useful evaluation index for selecting materials to be used in the power plant, for example, by comparing it with the price offered by the fuel supplier, taking into account the appropriateness and profitability of the offered price.
[0045] Furthermore, it is possible to replace the components in the above-described embodiments with well-known components as appropriate, without departing from the spirit of this disclosure, and the above-described embodiments may also be combined as appropriate.
[0046] The contents described in each of the above embodiments can be understood, for example, as follows:
[0047] (1) A fuel evaluation system according to one embodiment is: A fuel evaluation system for evaluating fuels used in a power plant (for example, the fuel evaluation system 100 of the above embodiment), A fuel information acquisition unit (for example, the fuel information acquisition unit 110 in the above embodiment) for acquiring fuel information including basic information about the fuel and additional information about economic information about the user of the power plant, A simulation unit (for example, the simulation unit 140 in the above embodiment) for predicting the process values of the power plant when the aforementioned fuel is used, A calculation unit (for example, the calculation unit 150 in the above embodiment) for calculating the estimated price of the fuel based on the fuel information and the prediction results of the process values by the simulation unit, It is equipped with.
[0048] According to the embodiment described in (1) above, an estimated price of fuel is calculated based on fuel information including economic information about the user of the power plant, and the predicted results of the process values of the power plant when the fuel is used. This makes it possible to determine the estimated price of fuel that is expected to be used in the power plant, assuming the economic information included in the fuel information. The estimated price of fuel thus obtained can be used as a useful evaluation index for selecting materials to be used in the power plant, for example, by comparing it with the price offered by the fuel supplier, taking into account the appropriateness and profitability of the offered price.
[0049] (2) In other embodiments, in the embodiment of (1) above, The aforementioned economic information includes the target power generation cost of the power plant and the various expenses for operating the power plant. The calculation unit is configured to calculate the estimated price by subtracting the overhead costs from the target power generation cost.
[0050] According to the embodiment described in (2) above, the estimated price of fuel can be determined by subtracting overhead costs from the target power generation cost of the power plant. Such an estimated price can be used as a useful evaluation index to show the value that the fuel should have in order for the power plant user to obtain the target power generation cost necessary to ensure profitability.
[0051] (3) In other embodiments, in the embodiment of (1) or (2) above, The calculation unit is configured to calculate the gap between the selling price of the fuel and the estimated price.
[0052] According to the embodiment described in (3) above, the gap between the estimated price of fuel obtained as described above and the selling price of fuel offered by, for example, a fuel supplier is calculated. Such a gap can be used as a useful evaluation indicator to examine the appropriateness of the selling price offered to users of power plants.
[0053] (4) In other embodiments, in any one embodiment of (1) to (3) above, The calculation unit is configured to determine whether the fuel is suitable for use by comparing the prediction results of the process values by the simulation unit with the required criteria for the power plant.
[0054] According to the embodiment described in (4) above, the estimated price of fuel can be determined within the range of fuels usable in a power plant by satisfying the requirements for the power plant. This makes it possible to perform a useful evaluation of fuels that can be used in a power plant based on their estimated price.
[0055] (5) In other embodiments, in any one embodiment of (1) to (4) above, The calculation unit calculates the estimated price for each type of operating mode the power plant has.
[0056] According to the embodiment described in (5) above, by calculating an estimated price for each type of operating mode, it becomes possible to select a fuel suitable for the power plant's operational policy.
[0057] (6) In other embodiments, in any one embodiment of (1) to (5) above, The aforementioned simulation unit, A model calculation unit (for example, the model calculation unit 142 in the above embodiment) that can calculate the process value by inputting input parameters into a model that simulates the power plant, An optimization unit (for example, the optimization unit 144 in the above embodiment) calculates the optimal value of the input parameter based on the evaluation value based on the process value, An optimal process value output unit (for example, the process value output unit 148 in the above embodiment) for outputting the process value corresponding to the optimal value based on the above model, It is equipped with.
[0058] According to the embodiment of (6) above, the optimal value of the input parameter is obtained from the evaluation value based on the process value obtained by inputting the input parameter into the model. The simulation unit outputs the process value corresponding to the optimal value of the input parameter obtained in this way as the simulation result. The estimated price of the fuel is calculated based on the process value obtained in this way.
[0059] (7) In other embodiments, in the embodiment of (6) above, The power plant is further provided with an operation data acquisition unit (for example, the operation data acquisition unit 130 in the above embodiment) for acquiring operation data of the power plant (for example, operation data 8 in the above embodiment), The simulation unit is configured to build or update the model by machine learning using the driving data as training data.
[0060] According to the embodiment of (7) above, a model used for simulations to calculate estimated prices can be suitably created by machine learning using driving data as training data.
[0061] (8) In other embodiments, in the embodiment of (6) above, The model is configured to simulate a scenario in which a predetermined change is made to the power plant.
[0062] According to the embodiment described in (8) above, when a change is made to a power plant, an estimated price is calculated using a corresponding model. This makes it possible to evaluate the profitability of the change, for example, when a change such as modification is made to a power plant in order to use a certain type of fuel, based on the estimated price of the fuel.
[0063] (9) In other embodiments, in any one embodiment of (1) to (8) above, The calculation results from the aforementioned calculation unit are sorted and processed based on a standard and then output.
[0064] According to the embodiment of (9) above, by processing the calculation results into ranks, the evaluation results can be used as suitable material when negotiating fuel prices, etc.
[0065] (10) A fuel evaluation method relating to one aspect is: A fuel evaluation method for evaluating fuels used in power plants, A step of acquiring fuel information, including basic information regarding the fuel and additional information regarding economic information regarding the user of the power plant, A step of predicting the process values of the power plant when the aforementioned fuel is used, A step of calculating the estimated price of the fuel based on the fuel information and the predicted results of the process values, It is equipped with.
[0066] According to the embodiment of (10) above, an estimated price of fuel is calculated based on fuel information including economic information about the user of the power plant and the predicted results of the process values of the power plant when the fuel is used. This makes it possible to determine the estimated price of fuel that is expected to be used in the power plant, assuming the economic information included in the fuel information. The estimated price of fuel thus obtained can be used as a useful evaluation index for selecting materials to be used in the power plant, for example, by comparing it with the price offered by the fuel supplier, taking into account the appropriateness and profitability of the offered price. [Explanation of symbols]
[0067] 1. Power generation company 2 Fuel supplier 4 Fuel information 6. Additional Information 7. Output data 8. Driving Data 100 Fuel Evaluation System 110 Fuel information acquisition section 120 Additional information acquisition section 130 Operation data acquisition unit 140 Simulation Department 142 Model Calculation Unit 144 Optimization Unit 146 Operating Condition Setting Unit 148 Process Value Output Section 150 Arithmetic section 160 Output section
Claims
1. A fuel evaluation system for evaluating fuels used in power plants, A fuel information acquisition unit for acquiring fuel information that defines each of the multiple types of fuel handled by a fuel supplier, For each of the aforementioned multiple types of fuel, an additional information acquisition unit is provided to acquire additional information that defines the target power generation cost expected by the power generation business operator operating the power plant, and the costs related to the power plant, when the power plant is operated under predetermined operating conditions. The system comprises a model of the power plant constructed by machine learning using operational data, which includes data relating to the operational performance of the power plant, the operating terminal parameters of the power plant, the fuel property data of the fuel, and the environmental data of the power plant, and a simulation unit for calculating the operating terminal parameters, the fuel property data, and the environmental data, which are input parameters of the model, to which the fuel property data corresponding to each of the multiple types of fuel is applied, to calculate the process values of the power plant, and to optimize the evaluation values calculated based on the process values. A calculation unit for calculating the estimated price of the fuel when the power plant is operated based on the operating terminal parameters, fuel property data, and environmental data, by determining the target power generation cost and the cost corresponding to the input parameters, namely the operating terminal parameters, fuel property data, and environmental data, which are calculated by the simulation unit based on the additional information acquired by the additional information acquisition unit, and subtracting the cost from the target power generation cost, A fuel evaluation system equipped with the following features.
2. The fuel information includes the sales price set by the fuel supplier for each of the aforementioned multiple types of fuel. The fuel evaluation system according to claim 1, wherein the calculation unit is configured to calculate the gap between the selling price and the estimated price for each of the plurality of types of fuel.
3. The fuel evaluation system according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the calculation unit is configured to determine whether the fuel is suitable for use by comparing the process value calculated by the simulation unit with the required criteria for the power plant.
4. The fuel evaluation system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the calculation unit calculates the estimated price for each type of operating mode of the power plant.
5. The fuel evaluation system according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the calculation unit outputs an evaluation result that ranks the multiple fuels that the fuel supplier can supply based on the estimated price.
6. A fuel evaluation method for evaluating the fuel used in the power plant using the fuel evaluation system described in any one of claims 1 to 5, The fuel information acquisition step involves acquiring the fuel information using the fuel information acquisition unit, The additional information acquisition step involves acquiring the additional information using the additional information acquisition unit, The simulation step involves the simulation unit calculating the process value using the model to which the fuel property data corresponding to each of the multiple types of fuel is applied, and calculating the input parameters, namely the operating terminal parameters, the fuel property data, and the environmental data, for which the evaluation value calculated based on the process value is optimized. The calculation unit determines the target power generation cost and the cost corresponding to the input parameters, namely the operating terminal parameters, fuel property data, and environmental data, which are calculated in the simulation step, based on the additional information acquired in the additional information acquisition step, and calculates the estimated price of the fuel when the power plant is operated based on the operating terminal parameters, fuel property data, and environmental data by subtracting the cost from the target power generation cost. A fuel evaluation method comprising the following features.