Equipment replacement plan creation system, equipment replacement plan creation method, and computer program

Abstract

The challenge is to provide novel technology for creating efficient budget plans that take budgets into consideration. [Solution] The system includes a planning generation unit that generates an update plan including equipment to be updated for a predetermined period by allocating equipment with the highest priority to the budget for each item, based on budget information including the budget for updates for a predetermined period and the budget ratio for each target item, the update priority for each target item, and the update cost of the equipment after the update. The aforementioned target items include two or more of the following: deterioration over time, water leakage, seismic reinforcement, and important routes. Equipment upgrade planning system.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to an equipment renewal plan creation system, an equipment renewal plan creation method, and a computer program.

Background Art

[0002] The renewal rate of equipment such as buried pipelines is decreasing, and the aging rate of such equipment has been steadily increasing year by year. From this, it is considered that the necessity for renewing equipment such as water supply, sewerage, and gas is increasing.

[0003] The formulation of a renewal plan is no longer a special effort in the equipment management business but has become an era when it is naturally required. The purpose is to create a correct and reasonable renewal plan within limited financial resources.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0004]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0005] Here, in Patent Document 1, a method for formulating a renewal plan considering the pipe type after renewal is disclosed. However, a technique for creating an efficient renewal plan considering the budget ratio, such as wanting to use about this much of the total budget for renewal for seismic strengthening, has not been disclosed.

[0006] Therefore, an object of the present invention is to provide a novel technique for creating an efficient budget plan considering the budget.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0007] [1] A planning generation unit generates a renewal plan including equipment to be renewed for a predetermined period by allocating equipment with the highest priority to the budget for each target item, based on budget information including the renewal budget for a predetermined period and the budget ratio for each target item, the renewal priority for each target item, and the renewal cost of the equipment after renewal. The aforementioned target items include two or more of the following: deterioration over time, water leakage, seismic reinforcement, and important routes. Equipment upgrade planning system. [2] The equipment upgrade planning system includes a prediction unit, The prediction unit, based on the equipment attribute information, performs a deterioration prediction for each candidate piece of equipment after replacement and determines the replacement piece of equipment from the candidate pieces of equipment. The equipment upgrade plan creation system according to [1], wherein the plan generation unit generates an upgrade plan based on the upgrade budget for the upgraded equipment determined by the prediction unit. [3] The equipment upgrade plan creation system comprises a storage unit and a priority determination unit, The memory unit stores a predictive model that predicts one or more of the following: deterioration over time, water leakage, and seismic reinforcement. The prediction unit outputs a deterioration prediction result for the existing equipment for each of the target items using the prediction model and the equipment attribute information. The equipment replacement plan creation system according to [2], wherein the priority determination unit determines the replacement priority for each target item based on the deterioration prediction results for each target item. [4] The plan generation unit further generates the update plan based on the update priority of the equipment registered as important routes. A system for creating equipment upgrade plans, as described in any of [1] to [3]. [5] The prediction unit further performs deterioration prediction based on event information, The aforementioned event information is information relating to an event that occurred in the equipment, and includes the location of occurrence, the type of event, and the event response history, as described in [2] for the equipment upgrade planning system. [6] The equipment upgrade plan creation system is equipped with a display unit, The equipment subject to the renewal plan is pipelines, The display unit displays a pipeline diagram screen. The aforementioned pipeline diagram display screen is a screen on which event information can be registered by placing a pointer that specifies the location of occurrence by selecting on or around the pipeline on the pipeline diagram, The equipment upgrade plan creation system described in [5], wherein event information registered on the pipeline diagram display screen is stored in association with pipeline attribute information of the existing pipeline at the location corresponding to the pointer. [7] The plan generation unit generates the renewal plan by allocating the remaining budget to other target items based on the priority of each target item if the total renewal cost for each target item calculated based on the renewal cost of the equipment to be renewed is less than the budget for each target item. Alternatively, if the remaining budget for each target item is insufficient to allocate equipment of the next priority, the equipment upgrade plan creation system described in [1] generates the upgrade plan by allocating the remaining budget to one of the target items based on the priority of each target item. [8] The system includes a planning generation process that generates a renewal plan including equipment to be renewed for a predetermined period by allocating equipment with the highest priority to the budget for each target item, based on budget information including the renewal budget for a predetermined period and the budget ratio for each target item, the renewal priority for each target item, and the renewal cost of the equipment after renewal. The aforementioned target items include two or more of the following: deterioration over time, water leakage, seismic reinforcement, and important routes. Method for creating equipment upgrade plans. A computer program that causes a computer to execute the equipment upgrade plan creation method described in [9][8]. [Effects of the Invention]

[0008] This invention can provide a novel technique for creating efficient budget plans that take budgets into consideration. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0009] [Figure 1] A block diagram showing the configuration of one embodiment of the system. [Figure 2] Hardware configuration diagram of a system according to one embodiment. [Figure 3]Data configuration diagram in the system of one embodiment. [Figure 4] Example of screen display in the system of one embodiment. [Figure 5] Example of screen display in the system of one embodiment. [Figure 6] Flowchart of the process in the system of one embodiment.

Mode for Carrying Out the Invention

[0010] Hereinafter, it will be described in more detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. Preferred embodiments are shown in the drawings. However, it can be implemented in many different forms and is not limited to the embodiments described in this specification.

[0011] For example, in this embodiment, the configuration, operation, etc. of the facility renewal plan creation system will be described. However, the same operational effects can also be achieved by the method, apparatus, computer program, etc. executed. The program may be provided as a non-transitory computer-readable recording medium or may be provided so as to be downloadable from an external server.

[0012] In this embodiment, in particular, the case of formulating a renewal plan for a pipeline that supplies water such as a water supply pipeline will be described. The facilities targeted for the renewal plan are not limited to water pipes, and may be other pipelines such as gas pipes or other water supply facilities such as tanks. In the following description, for the purpose of describing the case of creating a renewal plan particularly for pipelines, the facilities will be described by substituting them with pipes or pipelines.

[0013] In addition, in the present embodiment, an example of creating an update plan for existing pipelines (existing facilities) laid within the scope (update scope) managed by a water utility company that manages pipelines of local governments or the like as a user will be described. In the present embodiment, the user such as a water utility company creates an update plan with the entire scope managed by the user itself as the update scope to be updated. However, an update plan may be created with the scope managed by a plurality of companies or an area within the scope managed by a specific company as the update scope. In addition, the existing pipelines in this specification refer to the pipelines actually laid. In the present embodiment, when a water utility company replaces an existing pipeline it manages with a new pipeline, an update plan including which pipe to replace within a predetermined period (1 year in this embodiment) and which type and diameter of pipe to install from candidate pipes (candidate facilities) after the replacement will be described. In addition, in the present embodiment, an update plan is generated by determining the pipes to be updated within a predetermined period. However, an update plan for a plurality of periods may be generated by repeating the update plan for a predetermined period over a plurality of periods, and an update plan including the update timing of the pipes may be generated.

[0014] Government agencies and other organizations managing water supply systems secure renewal funds within their annual budgets and proceed with pipeline renewal based on medium- to long-term plans. Therefore, a clear upper limit is set on annual renewal costs, and plans must be formulated within that range. However, in reality, the deterioration status of each pipeline is constantly changing due to the influence of the buried environment and external factors (e.g., water pressure fluctuations, ground conditions, surrounding construction work, etc.). As a result, the planned renewal targets may shift to different locations in the following year. Thus, the priority of renewal is not fixed but changes dynamically over time. In this embodiment, AI appropriately predicts and re-evaluates this dynamically changing renewal priority annually, and even into the future, within a predetermined renewal cost framework, based on diverse information such as past performance, on-site experience, and environmental conditions. The goal is to concentrate funds on pipelines that truly need renewal, thereby avoiding erroneous renewal decisions and inefficient cost allocation. It is preferable that the processing described later utilizes the latest data, such as information on recently completed pipeline construction, to predict the dynamically changing priority of pipeline renewal.

[0015] <System Configuration> Figure 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a system according to one embodiment. As shown in Figure 1, the equipment replacement plan creation system 0 includes an equipment replacement plan creation device 1.

[0016] The equipment upgrade plan creation device 1 shown in Figure 1 is a computer device used by users such as water utilities that manage pipelines. The equipment upgrade plan creation device 1 is configured to implement the functional configuration described later. In the example shown in Figure 1, the equipment upgrade plan creation device 1 has all of the functional configuration described later, but some of the functional configuration may be implemented using other computer devices such as a server device.

[0017] In this embodiment, the equipment upgrade plan creation device 1 includes an equipment DB (pipe DB), which is a database for storing pipeline-related information such as pipeline attribute information (equipment attribute information). In this embodiment, the pipeline DB stores pipeline-related data such as pipeline attribute information acquired via a portable recording medium such as a USB memory or CD-ROM, from the viewpoint of the risk of data leakage, but it may also store data acquired from an external information distribution system or an external DB via any network. The pipeline DB is realized by the operation of the hardware configuration of the equipment upgrade plan creation device 1, such as the storage unit 102, which will be described later. Various types of pipeline-related information, such as pipeline attribute information and event information, stored in the pipeline DB are used in the processing related to the formulation of the upgrade plan, which will be described later.

[0018] In this embodiment, the pipeline database is provided in the equipment upgrade plan creation device 1, but it may also be provided in another server device or the like that is configured to communicate via any network, such as a VPN (Virtual Private Network) on the network, and the equipment upgrade plan creation device 1 may be configured to obtain the necessary information from the pipeline database connected via the network.

[0019] <Hardware Configuration> Figure 2 is a hardware configuration diagram. As shown in Figure 2, the equipment upgrade plan creation device 1 comprises a processing unit 101, a storage unit 102, a communication unit 103, an input unit 104, and an output unit 105, which are used to control the operation of each unit and each process. One or more information processing devices such as computers can be used as the equipment upgrade plan creation device 1. In addition, although the equipment upgrade plan creation device 1 has the functional configuration described later, some of the functional configurations of the equipment upgrade plan creation device 1 may be located in another device connected to the equipment upgrade plan creation device 1.

[0020] The processing unit 101 has a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) capable of executing instruction sets, and executes the OS (Operating System) and equipment renewal plan creation programs, including a pipeline deterioration prediction program.

[0021] The storage unit 102 has volatile memory such as RAM (Random Access Memory) capable of storing instruction sets, and non-volatile recording media such as HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or SSD (Solid State Drive) capable of storing the OS and the like. The storage unit 102 of the equipment replacement plan creation device 1 stores an equipment replacement plan creation program including a pipeline deterioration prediction program, and a trained mathematical model for pipeline deterioration prediction or parameters of a trained mathematical model. The storage unit 102 of the equipment replacement plan creation device 1 may also store a training program for training the mathematical model. In this embodiment, data stored in the pipeline DB, such as pipeline attribute information, is stored in the storage unit 102 of the equipment replacement plan creation device 1.

[0022] The communication unit 103 has an interface for connecting to a network and performs communication control with the network to communicate with other information processing devices, terminal devices, etc. When data is exchanged via a portable storage medium such as a USB memory stick, the equipment update plan creation device 1 does not need to have the communication unit 103.

[0023] The input unit 104 includes an operation input device capable of processing input such as a touch panel or keyboard, and an audio input device capable of receiving audio input such as a microphone. The output unit 105 includes a display device capable of display processing such as a display, and an audio output device such as a speaker.

[0024] <Data Definition> The definition of data used in this embodiment will be explained below.

[0025] In this specification, pipeline data recorded in a database managed by the operator managing the pipelines is referred to as raw pipeline data. This raw data may be transformed as needed, such as by replacing, adding, or deleting information, in order to make it usable within the system. The transformed data becomes processed pipeline data. The equipment renewal plan creation device 1 uses this processed pipeline data to perform various processes such as predicting pipeline deterioration, determining the replacement pipeline (replacement equipment), and formulating a renewal plan. If no processing is required, the raw data may be used as processed data as is. In this embodiment, the mathematical model for predicting pipeline deterioration is a trained model that has been trained using processed data, which has undergone various transformation processes on pipeline attribute information and event information, as training data. In addition, as part of the preprocessing of the raw data, processing may be performed to supplement any missing parts of pipeline attribute information, such as the year the pipeline was laid.

[0026] <Data Structure> The data structure used in this embodiment will be explained below with reference to Figure 3. In this embodiment, the data described later is stored in the pipeline database and used in the processing described later. The data structure shown in this embodiment is just one example, and data with a structure other than that shown in Figure 3 may be used in the processing related to the creation of pipeline renewal plans described later.

[0027] Figure 3(a) shows an example of the data structure of pipeline attribute information stored in the pipeline database. Pipeline attribute information is information about pipeline attributes, which are attributes of pipelines, and is information about existing pipelines managed by pipeline administrators such as local governments.

[0028] The pipeline attribute information shown in Figure 3(a) is information about the attributes of the pipeline (pipeline attributes), and in this embodiment, it is raw data stored in the pipeline DB, but it may also be processed data. The pipeline attribute information shown in Figure 3(a) includes the year the pipeline was laid, the pipe type, the diameter of the pipeline, and whether or not an event survey, such as a leak detection survey, was conducted. In addition, although not shown in Figure 3(a), the pipeline attribute information also includes data about the length of the pipeline. In this embodiment, the pipeline attribute information is information about the attributes of the pipeline and is stored linked to a pipeline ID, which is a unique ID for the pipeline. In addition to the information shown in Figure 3(a), the pipeline attribute information also includes hydraulic calculation features, which are features related to hydraulic calculations, environmental information, which is the environment at the pipeline laying location, abnormal information, which is abnormal deterioration of the pipeline, and adjacent pipeline information, which includes the pipe type of the adjacent pipeline. In this embodiment, by including adjacent pipeline information as pipeline attribute information, the equipment replacement plan creation system 0 can predict the occurrence of electrolytic corrosion leakage that may occur due to the material of adjacent pipelines. In this embodiment, pipeline attribute information of existing pipelines is stored in the pipeline DB and used in the processing described later. Furthermore, the equipment replacement plan creation system 0 functions as a GIS (Geographic Information System) that manages information about pipelines managed by the business operator. In addition, since the pipeline attribute information includes the installation location, it is possible to display it in a manner corresponding to the location of the pipeline, such as in the pipeline diagram display screen described later.

[0029] Furthermore, pipeline attribute information includes pipe information about the pipe itself to be laid. Pipe information is information about the laid pipe itself, excluding attributes that contribute to the laying location, and in this embodiment, includes pipe type, fittings, diameter, and length. Pipe type is the type of pipe material, including ductile cast iron pipes (DIP) and cast iron pipes (CIP). Also, even with the same ductile cast iron pipe, the characteristics of the pipeline may differ depending on the combination of pipe type and fittings, such as whether it is a non-earthquake-resistant pipe or an earthquake-resistant pipe, depending on the material of the fittings. Therefore, the equipment replacement plan creation system 0 in this embodiment determines the combination of pipe type and fittings as the post-replacement pipe information. In addition, the equipment replacement plan creation system 0 may determine the appropriate post-replacement values ​​for one or more attributes included in the pipe information, such as pipe type and diameter.

[0030] Environmental information refers to information about the environment at the location where the pipeline is laid, and includes information such as average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, average precipitation, traffic volume, building density, distance from major roads, distance to expressways, distance to railway lines, distance to stations, traffic volume on the nearest major road, elevation, slope, temperature, precipitation, noise, building density, and road width. In addition, other information such as the location of the pipeline may be included as pipeline attribute information if it is a feature related to the deterioration of the pipeline. In this embodiment, environmental information includes ground information relating to the ground at the location where the pipeline is laid. Ground information refers to information about the ground at the location where the pipeline is laid, and includes average S-wave velocity (AVS), surface ground amplification factor, type of topography and surface layer, soil pH value and geology.

[0031] The hydraulic calculation features are hydraulic calculation-related features obtained by performing hydraulic calculations based on any of the features included in the pipeline attribute information, and include the flow rate and pressure of water flow in the pipeline, the population served, the flow rate, and the flow velocity.

[0032] Furthermore, pipeline attribute information may include a critical pipeline label to indicate that pipelines connected to important facilities such as hospitals are important pipelines.

[0033] Figure 3(b) shows an example of the data structure of event information stored in the pipeline DB. Event information is information about events that occur in the pipeline, such as leaks or damage. In this embodiment, it includes a leak data ID, which is a unique ID for identifying the event; a pipeline ID of the pipeline where the event occurred; an event type; and timing information, such as the year the event occurred (year of leak) and the location of occurrence. Timing information is information about the timing at which an event occurred in the pipeline. In the data shown in Figure 3(b), the timing information includes data about the year the event occurred, but the timing information may also include the pipeline's lifespan up to the event, obtained from the pipeline's laying year and the year the event occurred. Furthermore, event information for pipelines in areas where earthquakes have occurred may include earthquake-related information such as the seismic intensity and the date and time of occurrence.

[0034] Furthermore, if a leak or damage occurs in the pipeline, repair work or pipe replacement will be carried out accordingly. Therefore, the event information in this embodiment includes an event response history related to the response to the event (e.g., repair work). The event response history includes, for example, whether or not poly sleeves (corrosion prevention) were used on the pipes, whether or not excavated soil (backfill such as soil generated during construction) was used, and information on when the event was responded to. However, it may also include information other than the examples above, as long as it relates to the response to the event, such as the contents recorded in the repair record ledger.

[0035] Furthermore, the response taken during an event may affect the occurrence of the next event (such as damage). Therefore, in this embodiment, event information, along with pipeline attribute information, is used to generate a predictive model and predict pipeline deterioration.

[0036] The event information in this embodiment includes information on the occurrence of events in pipelines where an event survey has been conducted by a pipeline management company, such as a water utility, and information on events in pipelines where a sudden water leak has occurred. An event survey is a survey conducted by a pipeline management company to determine whether or not an event such as a water leak has occurred in a pipeline, and in this embodiment, it is a pipeline water leak survey.

[0037] In this embodiment, event information is stored linked to the pipeline attribute information of any pipeline by pipeline ID and / or location information. However, event information relating to sudden events that occur in a pipeline, such as water leakage accidents, does not need to be linked to the pipeline attribute information.

[0038] In this embodiment, the event type included in the event information is information indicating the cause of pipeline damage and whether or not an event occurred. For example, information regarding the cause of leakage, such as corrosion deterioration of water pipes, electrolytic corrosion leakage, and vibration leakage, is stored. In this embodiment, for pipelines where no leakage has occurred, event information indicating that no event has occurred is stored with the event type set to "no leakage." In this embodiment, the event information is information regarding water pipe leakage, but it may also be information regarding other events occurring in pipelines, such as bursts, damage, or leaks in gas pipes, etc.

[0039] The data shown in Figure 3 is data relating to existing pipelines that have been laid, and is an example of data used to train a mathematical model for predicting pipeline deterioration. The equipment replacement planning system 0 has a data structure similar to the pipeline attribute information shown in Figure 3(a), and generates multiple sets of provisional pipeline attribute information (candidate pipeline attribute information) when the pipe information differs from that of the existing pipeline. The system then determines the replacement pipe based on the deterioration prediction results derived from this candidate pipeline attribute information. Furthermore, in this case, the equipment replacement planning system 0 uses the same data as the existing pipeline for pipeline attribute information based on the pipeline's laying location, such as environmental information, to perform deterioration prediction assuming that the existing pipeline (existing equipment) is replaced with a candidate pipe (candidate equipment).

[0040] In this embodiment, the equipment replacement plan creation system 0 uses the pipeline attribute information of currently laid existing pipelines to predict deterioration when a new pipeline with the same or different pipeline information as the existing pipeline is laid after replacement. By comparing multiple prediction results for the existing pipeline after replacement, the degree of deterioration for each pipeline information is compared, and the replacement pipeline is determined. If 80% is set as the replacement pipeline condition, the replacement pipeline may be determined as the pipeline with a survival time of 80% or more of the pipeline with the longest survival time. In other words, the replacement pipeline may be determined based on the deterioration prediction results and conditions set by the user.

[0041] Furthermore, the pipeline database in this embodiment stores event information related to events such as water leakage caused by earthquakes in order to perform deterioration prediction in response to earthquake damage. The event information in this embodiment includes earthquake impact information regarding whether or not the event occurred was caused by an earthquake, but the event type may include earthquake damage. In this case, earthquake information related to the earthquake that caused the event is stored in association with the event information related to earthquake damage. The event information may also include earthquake information. The earthquake information is information about the earthquake that influenced the occurrence of an event in the pipeline, and in this embodiment, it includes the magnitude of the earthquake and the date and time of the earthquake. In this embodiment, the information about the magnitude of the earthquake includes seismic intensity information, but it may also include the magnitude of the earthquake using other indicators such as magnitude. The depth information may also include information about other earthquakes, such as the epicenter of the earthquake. The mathematical model corresponding to earthquake damage is a model that has been learned using event information and earthquake information related to events caused by the effects of the earthquake, based on the earthquake impact information.

[0042] Figure 3(c) shows an example of the data structure of training data, which is processed data formatted for learning, generated by combining pipeline attribute information and event information. The training data is information about pipelines used to train a mathematical model, and includes a leak data ID, installation year, pipeline ID, survival time (time from pipeline installation to event occurrence or time from the previous event occurrence to the next event occurrence), a training label which is a label related to the event type, the number of past leaks in the pipeline where the event occurred at that time, and an abnormal year flag which is an abnormal year in which there is an unusually high number of events. The training label is data related to the event type, and is a label assigned to each event type.

[0043] Although not shown in Figure 3, the pipeline database also stores candidate pipe information, which is master data for available pipes. Candidate pipe information is information about pipes that can be used as updated pipes in the system, and in this embodiment, it includes pipe type and fittings such as DIP (ductile cast iron pipe), and the cost of updating per unit length (for example, the cost of updating per meter is XX million yen). The update cost may include the cost of the pipe itself, or it may include the cost of the work required to update the pipe. In this embodiment, the candidate pipe information is a list of selectable pipes with different pipe types, fittings, diameters, etc., but it may also be a list of pipeline products, etc. The cost of updating per unit length may be the price (purchase cost) of the pipeline and fittings themselves, or it may include the cost of the work required to update the pipeline. The cost of updating a unit length of pipeline included in the candidate pipe information is used as the pipe update cost in the process of generating the update plan. Furthermore, all pipes registered in the candidate pipes may be available as candidate pipes, or only some pipes, such as pipes selected by the user, may be available as candidate pipes.

[0044] <Functional Configuration> As shown in Figure 1, the equipment upgrade plan creation device 1 comprises a reception unit 11, a prediction unit 12, a priority determination unit 13, a plan generation unit 14, and a display unit 15. This is an example where information processing by software (programs temporarily or permanently stored in a memory unit 102, etc.) is concretely realized by hardware (processing unit 101, etc.).

[0045] <Reception Desk 11> The reception unit 11 accepts user input, such as settings for generating the update plan. In this embodiment, the reception unit 11 processes the received data by passing it on to other functional configurations or storing it in the pipeline DB or storage unit 102. The reception unit 11 may also accept budget information, including the update budget and budget percentages for each target item, as input from the user. Furthermore, the reception unit 11 may accept various data from the user, such as important route information, which will be described later in the generation of the update plan.

[0046] <Prediction section 12> The prediction unit 12 uses a prediction model to predict pipeline deterioration based on pipeline attribute information and event information, and outputs the deterioration prediction results. In this embodiment, the prediction unit 12 outputs the probability of failure, the rate of deterioration over time, the probability of failure due to earthquakes, etc., as deterioration prediction results. In this embodiment, the prediction unit 12 performs deterioration prediction of existing pipelines based on the pipeline attribute information of existing pipelines, and deterioration prediction of candidate pipes based on the pipeline attribute information of candidate pipes, which is generated by replacing a part of the pipeline attribute information of existing pipelines (pipe information in this embodiment) with information of candidate pipes. In this embodiment, the deterioration prediction results of existing pipelines are used to determine the replacement priority, and the deterioration prediction results of candidate pipes are used to determine the replacement pipes.

[0047] Furthermore, when predicting the deterioration of candidate pipes, the prediction unit 12 performs deterioration predictions for multiple candidate pipes, such as predicting deterioration when GX pipes are installed and when VP pipes are installed, and outputs multiple prediction results. Due to changes in water flow within the pipeline due to past construction work, there is a possibility that the deterioration prediction results may differ from the actual degree of deterioration. For this reason, it is preferable that event information, including the correspondence history, and pipeline attribute information are newly acquired.

[0048] The prediction model used in the prediction unit 12 for predicting pipeline deterioration is a trained model that has been trained using training data generated by combining pipeline attribute information and event information as shown in Figure 3(c). In this embodiment, when pipeline attribute information is input, the model outputs deterioration prediction results such as the probability of pipeline failure and survival time (time until failure). The prediction model in this embodiment is a model that can predict the deterioration of pipes with various attributes, having been trained based on training data generated using pipeline attribute information and event information of a large number of pipelines having various attributes such as different pipe types and joint combinations.

[0049] Furthermore, the prediction unit 12 may perform deterioration prediction using a prediction model corresponding to each target item, or it may perform deterioration prediction using a prediction model capable of outputting multiple indicators corresponding to each target item. The prediction models corresponding to each target item will be explained below.

[0050] The event "water leakage" can have multiple causes, such as electrolytic corrosion leakage and vibration leakage. Therefore, in this embodiment, the predictive model for predicting water leakage in relation to the target item "water leakage" includes multiple models learned for each event type based on training labels assigned based on the event types included in the training data. In this embodiment, the mathematical model includes models corresponding to each event type: corrosion degradation, electrolytic corrosion leakage, vibration leakage, and other leakage. Note that the predictive models for each event type may employ different methods. For example, when the event type is electrolytic corrosion leakage, vibration leakage, or other leakage, the model may be constructed using a gradient boosting method, while in the case of corrosion degradation, it may be constructed using survival time analysis methods such as the Kaplan-Meier method or the Cox proportional hazards model for survival time analysis. Note that the methods used to construct the predictive model are not limited to those described above. For example, methods such as gradient descent, boosting, decision trees, neural networks, logistic regression, and k-nearest neighbors may be used.

[0051] The predictive model for predicting damage to pipelines caused by earthquakes, which is related to the target item "earthquake reinforcement," is a model that has been trained based on pipeline attribute information including ground information and earthquake information. When pipeline attribute information and earthquake information regarding the assumed earthquake are input, it outputs the probability of events (water leakage, damage, etc.) occurring in the pipeline during the assumed earthquake as a deterioration prediction result. In this embodiment, the predictive model for predicting earthquake damage predicts the probability of events occurring at a specific seismic intensity, but it may also output the probability of events occurring at a predetermined magnitude, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and SI value (spectrum intensity) as a deterioration prediction result.

[0052] Furthermore, a predictive model for predicting aging deterioration related to the target item "aging deterioration" is a model that shows the degree of corrosion Di of a certain pipe i at time t, and is expressed by pipe-related features X1 to Xn and parameters β0 to βn, γ, and ε. The degree of corrosion Di of the pipe cannot actually be observed, but it may be a model like the one shown in Equation 1 below, which is generated by assuming it as a latent variable whose existence can be inferred from other data. In deterioration prediction using the predictive model shown in Equation 1, the corrosion rate (depth) is output as the deterioration prediction result by multiplying Di shown in Equation 1 by a time-dependent constant and time. In this embodiment, the posterior distribution of parameters β0 to βn is estimated based on pipe attribute information, and the predictive model is generated by adopting the parameter that maximizes the posterior probability in this posterior distribution as the parameter of the predictive model. In addition, among the prediction models for each event type described above, the prediction model for event types related to aging deterioration such as corrosion deterioration may be used as the predictive model for predicting aging deterioration.

[0053]

number

[0054] Furthermore, the prediction unit 12 determines the replacement pipe based on the deterioration prediction results. The replacement pipe is the pipeline after replacement, selected from among the candidate pipes. The replacement pipe information is information about the replacement pipe, which is the pipe laid in replacement for the existing pipeline. In this embodiment, it includes information about the pipe itself, such as pipe type and joints, similar to pipe information, but it may also include information about the installation location. The prediction unit 12 may determine the pipeline with the longest survival time as the replacement pipeline, or it may determine the pipeline with the longest survival time among pipelines whose replacement cost is less than or equal to a predetermined amount as the replacement pipeline. Also, if the deterioration prediction result is a failure probability or deterioration rate, the prediction unit 12 may select the pipe with the lowest failure probability or deterioration rate as the candidate pipe. Note that the method for determining the candidate pipe is not limited to the method described above. Any method for determining the replacement pipe using the deterioration prediction results may be adopted, such as calculating a score for each candidate pipe based on multiple indicators (survival time, deterioration rate, failure probability, etc.) output as deterioration prediction results and determining the pipeline with the highest score as the replacement pipe. Furthermore, if seismic reinforcement is prioritized, the replacement pipe may be determined based on prior settings by the user, such as by selecting a seismic-resistant pipeline (for example, a GX-type ductile cast iron pipe or polyethylene pipe) as the replacement pipe.

[0055] <Priority determining unit 13> The priority determination unit 13 determines the pipeline renewal priority based on the pipeline deterioration prediction results from the prediction unit 12. In this embodiment, the priority determination unit 13 performs optimization based on the deterioration prediction results and pipeline attribute information to determine the pipeline renewal priority in which at least two of the following are optimal: risk, affected population, renewal cost, and importance. In this embodiment, the priority determination unit 13 performs processing using an optimization algorithm to determine the renewal priority. Since optimization is performed from multiple perspectives such as risk and cost, it is preferable to use a multi-objective optimization algorithm such as NSGA-II. In this case, the priority determination unit 13 may determine the renewal priority as the average of multiple values ​​such as Pareto optimal solutions calculated using the optimization algorithm, or it may select and adopt one of the multiple values. Furthermore, risk is expressed by a function based on deterioration prediction results, the affected population is expressed by a function based on the population served by the pipeline in question (water supply population), the replacement cost is expressed by a function based on the replacement cost of the pipe after replacement, and the importance is expressed by a function based on information about important facilities (hospitals, etc.) or pipes with an important pipe flag that are connected to the pipe (such as whether or not they are connected to important facilities and the distance). Priority is determined by performing optimization based on these functions.

[0056] Furthermore, the priority determination unit 13 may determine pipelines with a high deterioration rate or a short remaining lifespan, as predicted results, as pipelines with a high priority for replacement. Alternatively, it may determine priorities by considering other conditions, such as prioritizing the replacement of specific pipe types, including lead pipes that may cause health problems or VP pipes that have a particularly high risk of leakage.

[0057] Furthermore, the priority determination unit 13 may group multiple pipelines and determine the renewal order if predetermined conditions (grouping conditions) are met, such as when adjacent pipelines have similar remaining lifespans. The grouping conditions are conditions for treating multiple adjacent existing pipelines as a single pipeline in the planning of a renewal plan, and in this embodiment, they include conditions relating to the range of rank and / or pipe length based on the deterioration prediction results of the existing pipelines. The grouping conditions may also include conditions relating to the range of other values ​​based on the deterioration prediction results of the pipelines, such as the range of the remaining lifespan of the pipelines. In this embodiment, for example, if the grouping condition is set to be within 7m, the priority determination unit 13 will group pipelines A to C and determine the renewal priority so that the renewal rank of the group of pipelines A to C becomes 10th.

[0058] Furthermore, the priority determination unit 13 may determine the renewal priority of important routes based on the deterioration prediction results. In this case, the priority determination unit 13 determines the renewal priority of important routes as routes to be renewed, such as pipelines with a deterioration rate of a threshold or higher, or pipelines that have a deterioration prediction result of a threshold or higher and are flagged as important routes, and which meet predetermined conditions.

[0059] <Planning Generation Unit 14> The plan generation unit 14 generates a renewal plan based on the replacement pipes determined by the prediction unit 12 and the renewal priorities determined by the priority determination unit 13. The plan generation unit 14 also generates a renewal plan that includes replacement target pipes (renewal target equipment) for a predetermined period based on budget information including the budget percentage for each target item and the renewal budget. The budget information is information regarding the budget for pipeline renewal, and in this embodiment, it includes the renewal budget, which is the budget for pipeline renewal for a predetermined period (1 year in this embodiment), and the budget percentage for each target item. In this embodiment, the budget information includes the renewal budget and the budget percentage for each target item, but it may also include the budget amount for each target item. Furthermore, in this embodiment, the plan generation unit 14 determines a target pipeline to be renewed when it meets predetermined conditions, such as when the remaining lifespan is less than a predetermined number of years or when a predetermined number of years have passed since installation. These conditions may be determined based on pipeline attribute information or based on deterioration prediction results.

[0060] In this embodiment, the plan generation unit 14 generates an update plan based on important route information. Important route information is information about important routes that require faster update, such as pipelines around hospitals, and in this embodiment, it is attached to the pipeline attribute information as an important route flag. The plan generation unit 14 generates an update plan based on the update priority of the important routes. The update priority within an important route may be determined by the priority determination unit 13 based on the pipeline deterioration prediction result, or it may be entered by the user. This important route information may be entered by the user or obtained in list format. The important route information may also be stored in the pipeline DB. The plan generation unit 14 obtains the important route information and generates an update plan based on the obtained important route information.

[0061] For example, if the budget is set at 10 million yen and the budget allocation for each target item is set as follows: "important routes" 40%, "earthquake-resistant construction" 20%, "age-related deterioration" 20%, and "water leakage" 20%, the planning unit 14 will generate a renewal plan by allocating 40% of the budget to pipelines with high renewal priority based on important route information, 20% of the budget to pipelines with high renewal priority based on the prediction results of a prediction model that predicts earthquake damage, 20% of the budget to pipelines with high renewal priority based on the prediction results of a prediction model that predicts age-related deterioration, and 20% of the budget to pipelines with high renewal priority based on the prediction results of a prediction model that predicts water leakage. At this time, the planning generation unit 14 determines which pipes to be replaced for a given period, such as selecting pipe A with priority 1 and replacement cost of 1 million yen and pipe B with priority 2 and replacement cost of 900,000 yen as pipes to be replaced for the target period, and excluding pipe C with priority 3 and replacement cost of 500,000 yen from the replacement targets, so that the total replacement cost stays within the budget. In addition, if the replacement pipe determined based on the deterioration prediction result is a PP pipe, the planning generation unit 14 extracts candidate pipe information for the pipe corresponding to the replacement pipe from the candidate pipe information of multiple candidate pipes and performs the assignment process by referring to this information.

[0062] In this embodiment, the plan generation unit 14 determines the pipes to be replaced for each target item by performing the process of allocating the high-priority pipelines within the budget as described above for each target item. Note that pipelines with high replacement priority in both the critical routes and seismic reinforcement items may be determined as replacement pipes only in the critical routes item, and even if they have high replacement priority in other target items, they may not be designated as replacement pipes. In other words, pipelines with high replacement priority in multiple target items will be determined as replacement pipes in only one of the target items. In this embodiment, the plan generation unit 14 determines the replacement pipes for critical routes, and then determines the replacement pipes related to other target items, thereby generating a replacement plan for multiple target items.

[0063] In this embodiment, the pipes to be replaced for each target item are determined in the order of critical routes, seismic resistance, deterioration, and water leakage. Among the target items, critical routes have the highest priority, and water leakage has the lowest priority. However, the priority of each target item is not limited to the example described here. For example, if the budget for each target item is set as 30% for critical routes, 30% for seismic resistance, 20% for age-related deterioration, and 20% for water leakage, and only 20% of the budget is used for critical routes when determining the pipes to be replaced for critical routes, the remaining 10% of the budget for critical routes will be allocated to seismic resistance, which is the next highest priority target item. The remaining budget will be allocated to other target items based on the priority of each target item. The planning generation unit 14 determines the pipes to be replaced based on the priority of each target item and calculates the total replacement cost for each target item based on the replaced pipes and replacement costs of the determined pipes. If the total replacement cost for each target item is less than or equal to the set budget for each target item, the remaining budget will be added to the budget of other target items based on the priority of each target item. The plan generation unit 14 determines which pipes to replace by allocating high-priority pipelines within the budget allocated according to the priority of each target item, and generates a replacement plan.

[0064] Furthermore, if, after determining which pipes to be replaced for each target item, there is a surplus that is insufficient to replace the pipelines, it may be allocated to the budget of any other target item. Specifically, when the planning generation unit 14 determines which pipes to be replaced for each target item by allocating funds to the highest-priority pipelines based on the budget for each target item, if the cost of replacing the next-priority pipeline exceeds the remaining budget for that target item (i.e., there is insufficient budget to replace the next-priority pipeline), it allocates the remaining budget to the cost of any other target item and generates a replacement plan. If there is a surplus for multiple target items, the planning generation unit 14 adds up the budget surpluses for the multiple target items and allocates them to the budget of any other target item to generate a replacement plan. Here, the target item to which the funds are allocated may be the highest-priority target item, such as an important route, or it may be a target item where the cost of replacing the next-priority pipeline is less than or equal to the sum of the budget surpluses.

[0065] Furthermore, in this embodiment, the plan generation unit 14 generates an update plan for a predetermined period (e.g., one year), but it may also generate budget plans for multiple periods, such as generating an annual update plan that spans multiple fiscal years.

[0066] Furthermore, the plan generation unit 14 may generate an update plan based on settings such as the threshold of the prediction result set by the user. In addition, the plan generation unit 14 may generate an update plan by referring to all information related to the target pipeline, such as deterioration prediction results, pipeline attribute information, and event information.

[0067] <Display section 15> The display unit 15 performs screen display processing based on various necessary data. In this embodiment, the display unit 15 performs screen display processing for screens such as the pipeline diagram display screen and the setting acceptance screen. The display unit 15 may also display, for example, a list of pipes targeted for replacement during the target period and the total replacement cost, based on the generated replacement plan. The list of pipes to be replaced may display identification information of the pipes to be replaced (e.g., pipeline ID), information on the pipes after replacement (e.g., pipe type), replacement cost, deterioration prediction result, and replacement priority.

[0068] The following explanation will use Figures 4 and 5 to describe examples of screens displayed by the display unit 15. Note that the figures show examples of screen displays, and screens with different configurations may be displayed.

[0069] The pipeline diagram display screen W1 will be explained using Figure 4. The pipeline diagram display screen W1 is a screen for displaying a pipeline diagram that shows the laid pipelines on a map, and has a pipeline diagram display area W11, a pointer W12, and a pipeline information display area W13. In addition, the data entered on the pipeline diagram display screen W1 is acquired by the reception unit 11 and used for various processes such as the generation of renewal plans.

[0070] The pipeline diagram display area W11 is an area for displaying the pipeline diagram. In this embodiment, the pipeline diagram displayed in the pipeline diagram display area W11 shows lines indicating pipelines at locations corresponding to where pipelines are laid on a map showing buildings, roads, etc. Furthermore, when a line indicating a pipeline displayed in the pipeline diagram display area W11 is pressed, pipeline attribute information related to the target pipeline may be displayed in the pipeline information display area W13.

[0071] Pointer W12 is a marker indicating the location where an event (such as damage, leakage, or investigation) has occurred. In this embodiment, the user can place it by pressing any location in the pipeline diagram display area W11.

[0072] The pipeline information display area W13 is a screen display that appears when a pipeline or pointer W12 displayed on the pipeline diagram display area W11 is selected, and is an area that can display information about the selected pipeline, including pipeline attribute information and event information. In addition, in the pipeline information display area W13 in this embodiment, information about the pipeline, including the displayed pipeline attribute information and event information, can be input and modified.

[0073] In this embodiment, the pointer W12 is placed by pressing on and / or around the lines indicating the pipeline, but the pointer W12 may also be placed at other locations. Furthermore, when the pointer W12 is placed by selecting any location in the pipeline diagram display area W11, the pipeline information display area W13 is also displayed, and event information related to the event that occurred at this location can be registered. In this embodiment, the location where the pointer is placed is registered as the location where the event occurred.

[0074] The following explanation will use Figure 5 to describe an example of the display of the setting reception screen W2. The setting reception screen W2 is a screen for receiving settings when generating an update plan. In this embodiment, the setting reception screen W2 is a screen in which the budget percentage and seismic intensity for each target item can be entered. The seismic intensity entered here is used as earthquake information to generate the output of deterioration prediction results related to earthquake damage. The data entered on the setting reception screen W2 is received by the reception unit 11 and used for various processes such as generating an update plan.

[0075] Furthermore, the setting reception screen W2 in this embodiment allows input of threshold values ​​for deterioration prediction results, including a threshold value for the probability of damage in a set earthquake and a threshold value for the probability of deterioration on critical routes. At this time, the plan generation unit 14 generates a renewal plan based on the input thresholds, for example, by generating a renewal plan to replace pipelines with a critical route flag that have a deterioration probability of 80% or higher within 40% of the total budget, designating pipelines with a damage probability of 80% or higher as target pipelines for renewal. Similarly, threshold values ​​for prediction results may also be input for target items other than seismic reinforcement and critical routes (such as water leakage and aging deterioration), and renewal plans may be generated based on these.

[0076] <Renewal plan generation method> The following explanation will use Figure 6 to describe the processing flow related to the generation of the update plan in this embodiment. Note that the processing flow shown below is just one example, and the processing may be executed in a different order.

[0077] When the user instructs the generation of an update plan, the display unit 15 performs the display processing of a setting acceptance screen as shown in Figure 5 (S101). The reception unit 11 obtains the budget percentage for each target item entered here (S102). Alternatively, the reception unit 11 may obtain the update budget for the target period (e.g., one year) via the setting acceptance screen.

[0078] The prediction unit 12 acquires pipeline attribute information and replacement costs (S103), and performs pipeline deterioration prediction based on the acquired pipeline attribute information (S104). At this time, the prediction unit 12 performs deterioration prediction of the existing pipeline based on the pipeline attribute information of the existing pipeline, and deterioration prediction of the candidate pipe based on the pipeline attribute information of the candidate pipe generated by replacing some of the pipeline attribute information of the existing pipeline with the pipe information of the candidate pipe. The prediction unit 12 also uses multiple prediction models corresponding to the target items (prediction model for earthquake damage prediction, prediction model for water leakage prediction, prediction model for aging deterioration prediction) to output multiple deterioration prediction results corresponding to the target items. The prediction unit 12 also determines the replacement pipe from among the candidate pipes based on the deterioration prediction results (S105). The priority determination unit 13 determines the replacement priority based on the deterioration prediction results (S106). [Explanation of Symbols]

[0079] 0 Equipment Upgrade Planning System 1. Equipment upgrade plan creation device 11 Reception Department 12 Prediction Section 13 Priority determination section 14. Planning Generation Unit 15 Display section

Claims

1. The system includes a planning generation unit that generates a renewal plan including equipment to be renewed for a predetermined period by allocating the renewal costs of equipment with high renewal priority to the budget for each target item, based on budget information including the renewal budget for a predetermined period and the budget ratio for each target item, the renewal priority for each target item, and the renewal costs of the equipment after renewal. The aforementioned target items include two or more of the following: deterioration over time, water leakage, seismic reinforcement, and important routes. The plan generation unit generates the renewal plan by allocating the remaining budget to other target items based on the priority of each target item, if the total renewal cost for each target item, calculated based on the renewal cost of the equipment to be renewed, is less than the budget for each target item. Alternatively, if the remaining budget for each target item is insufficient to allocate the renewal costs for the equipment with the next renewal priority, the remaining budget will be allocated to one of the target items based on its priority, thereby generating the renewal plan. Equipment upgrade planning system.

2. The equipment upgrade planning system includes a prediction unit, The prediction unit, based on the equipment attribute information, predicts the deterioration of each candidate piece of equipment when the existing equipment is replaced with a candidate piece of equipment, and then determines the replacement equipment from among the candidate pieces of equipment. The plan generation unit generates a renewal plan based on the renewal budget for the equipment after renewal determined by the prediction unit. The equipment upgrade plan creation system according to claim 1.

3. The equipment upgrade planning system comprises a memory unit and a priority determination unit. The memory unit stores a predictive model that predicts one or more of the following: deterioration over time, water leakage, and seismic reinforcement. The prediction unit outputs a deterioration prediction result for the existing equipment for each of the target items using the prediction model and the equipment attribute information. The priority determination unit determines the update priority for each target item based on the deterioration prediction results for each target item. The equipment upgrade plan creation system according to claim 2.

4. The plan generation unit further generates the renewal plan based on the renewal priority of the equipment registered as an important route. The equipment upgrade plan creation system according to claim 1.

5. The prediction unit further performs degradation prediction based on event information, The aforementioned event information is information relating to an event that occurred in the equipment, and includes the location of the event, the type of event, and the event response history. The equipment upgrade plan creation system according to claim 2.

6. The equipment upgrade planning system is equipped with a display unit, The equipment subject to the renewal plan is pipelines, The display unit displays a pipeline diagram screen. The aforementioned pipeline diagram display screen is a screen on which event information can be registered by placing a pointer that specifies the location of occurrence by selecting on or around the pipeline on the pipeline diagram, The event information registered on the pipeline diagram display screen is stored in association with the pipeline attribute information of the existing pipeline at the location corresponding to the pointer. The equipment upgrade plan creation system according to claim 5.

7. A method for creating an equipment upgrade plan, which is performed by a computer, The system includes a planning generation process that generates a renewal plan including equipment to be renewed for a predetermined period by allocating the renewal costs of equipment with high renewal priority to the budget for each target item, based on budget information including the renewal budget for a predetermined period and the budget ratio for each target item, the renewal priority for each target item, and the renewal costs of the equipment after renewal. The aforementioned target items include two or more of the following: deterioration over time, water leakage, seismic reinforcement, and important routes. In the aforementioned plan generation process, if the total renewal costs for each target item, calculated based on the renewal costs of the equipment to be renewed, are less than the budget for each target item, the remaining budget is allocated to other target items based on the priority of each target item to generate the renewal plan. Alternatively, if the remaining budget for each target item is insufficient to allocate the renewal costs for the equipment with the next renewal priority, the remaining budget will be allocated to one of the target items based on its priority, thereby generating the renewal plan. Method for creating equipment upgrade plans.

8. A computer program that causes a computer to execute the equipment upgrade plan creation method described in claim 7.

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