Supply chain risk scenario creation assistance device, supply chain risk scenario creation assistance method, and program

Abstract

The present invention addresses the problem of achieving more accurate risk scenario generation than before when an incident occurs.　In order to solve this problem, the present invention proposes a supply chain risk scenario creation assistance device that: uses at least one of the time from the occurrence of an incident to the occurrence of a component supply reduction, the time and quantity of the component supply reduction, and the time and quantity of recovery from the component supply reduction to identify a similar group of incident information that satisfies a risk scenario creation condition (target information) in creating a risk scenario; creates the risk scenario on the basis of the similar group; and calculates a risk procurement plan on the basis of the created risk scenario.

Description

Supply Chain Risk Scenario Creation Support Device, Supply Chain Risk Scenario Creation Support Method, and Program

[0001] The present invention relates to a technique for creating a supply chain risk scenario (hereinafter simply referred to as a risk scenario) for coping with incidents in a supply chain.

[0002] In recent years, geopolitical risks indicating an increase in political, military, and social tensions due to geographical factors have been increasing. There are also risks of natural disasters due to global warming and the like. Along with these geopolitical risks and natural disaster risks, the risk of supply chain disruption has also been increasing. As a countermeasure against this risk of supply chain disruption, for example, Patent Document 1 has been proposed.

[0003] Patent Document 1 aims to "reduce the risks borne by a company receiving component supplies from a supply chain." For this purpose, Patent Document 1 discloses "a disaster crisis management system including a server 1 capable of communicating with user terminals 151 and 152 of a company, and a risk information extraction unit 100 that detects and extracts risk information indicating risk contents including disasters, accidents, etc. from information collected from information sources including SNS. The server 1 acquires risk information from the risk information extraction unit 100, and uses the risk information, the stored supplier company information database 30, and the supplier product information database 40 to identify suppliers affected by the risk information, and generates an alert notification including the content of the risk information, the company information of the identified supplier, the supply chain information to which the identified supplier belongs, and the product information of the identified supplier, and transmits the alert notification to the user terminals 151 and 152."

[0004] Japanese Unexamined Patent Application Publication No. 2023-159850

[0005] Here, in creating a risk scenario, it is necessary to make a more accurate prediction. And in creating this risk scenario, it is necessary to use incident information highly relevant to the prediction target, and it is required to extract such incident information.

[0006] Patent Document 1 describes detecting risk information, including disasters and accidents, and affected supplier information, from information collected from information sources including social media. However, it does not describe predicting quantitative information affecting the supply chain, such as the amount of reduction in parts supply due to risk, or extracting incident information to improve prediction accuracy, making it difficult to create accurate risk scenarios. Therefore, the present invention aims to generate more accurate risk scenarios than conventional methods when an incident has occurred or is expected to occur.

[0007] To solve the above problems, the present invention identifies similar groups of incident information that meet the conditions for creating a risk scenario, and supports the creation of a risk scenario based on these similar groups.

[0008] More specifically, the supply chain risk scenario creation support device creates risk scenarios to address the reduction in parts supply from suppliers caused by the occurrence of an incident, and comprises a storage unit that stores incident information which is target information indicating an incident, parts supply reduction information which indicates the amount of reduction in parts supply corresponding to the occurrence of the incident, and risk scenario creation conditions for creating the risk scenario; an incident information extraction unit that extracts incident information corresponding to the risk scenario creation conditions from the storage unit; a similarity group creation unit that calculates the similarity of each incident information stored in the storage unit and groups similar incident information; a mitigation method creation unit that creates a method for mitigating the risk scenario creation conditions based on the incident information grouped by the similarity group creation unit and the incident information extracted by the incident information extraction unit; a risk scenario creation condition unit that creates risk scenario creation conditions to mitigate the risk scenario creation conditions based on the mitigation method created by the mitigation method creation unit when there is no incident information corresponding to the risk scenario creation conditions in the incident information extraction unit; and a risk scenario creation unit that creates a risk scenario based on the scenario creation conditions created by the risk scenario creation condition creation unit.

[0009] Furthermore, the present invention also includes a supply chain risk scenario creation support device, including the supply chain risk scenario creation support device described above, and a method for creating supply chain risk scenarios using these devices. Moreover, the present invention also includes a program for making the supply chain risk scenario creation support device function as a computer, and a storage medium for storing the same.

[0010] According to the present invention, it is possible to generate more accurate risk scenarios.

[0011] This is a functional block diagram of the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 in one embodiment of the present invention. This is a diagram of incident information 1911 in one embodiment of the present invention. This is a diagram of scenario creation conditions 1912 in one embodiment of the present invention. This is a diagram of parts supply reduction information 1913 in one embodiment of the present invention. This is a diagram of procurement plan 1914 in one embodiment of the present invention. This is a diagram of similar group information 1921 in one embodiment of the present invention. This is a diagram of mitigation method 1922 in one embodiment of the present invention. This is a diagram of risk scenario creation conditions 1923 in one embodiment of the present invention. This is a diagram of reference data 1924 in one embodiment of the present invention. This is a diagram of risk scenario 1925 in one embodiment of the present invention. This is a diagram of risk procurement plan 1926 in one embodiment of the present invention. This is a flowchart of the risk scenario generation processing flow in one embodiment of the present invention. This is a diagram of parts supply quantity change in one embodiment of the present invention. This is a diagram of display screen 1100 in one embodiment of the present invention. This is a hardware configuration diagram of the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 in one embodiment of the present invention.

[0012] One embodiment of the present invention will be described below. In this embodiment, a risk scenario is created to respond to an incident, which is an example of a risk that affects the supply chain. The risk scenario includes a parts supply reduction scenario that reduces the supply volume of parts related to the supply chain. The details will be described below with reference to the drawings.

[0013] First, the configuration of the supply chain risk scenario creation support device for creating risk scenarios will be described. Figure 1 is a functional block diagram of the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 in this embodiment. The supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 includes an input / output unit 11, a risk scenario creation target selection unit 12, a risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13, an incident information extraction unit 14, a similar group creation unit 15, a mitigation method creation unit 16, a risk scenario creation unit 17, a procurement forecast calculation unit 18, and a storage unit 19.

[0014] First, the input / output unit 11 has input and output functions for various types of information and instructions. The input function includes receiving operations from the user. To realize this input function, input devices such as keyboards and communication devices connected to the user terminal can be used. The output function includes display and communication to other devices. Therefore, to realize the output function, display devices and communication devices can be used.

[0015] The input / output unit 11 may be configured as a single unit, or it may be implemented in multiple configurations, such as one for each function. In the former case, it can be implemented with a touch panel. In the latter case, it can be implemented with an input device and a display device. Furthermore, in addition to these, or as an alternative, the input / output unit 11 can be implemented with a communication device.

[0016] Furthermore, the risk scenario creation target selection unit 12 selects incident information, which is the target information for the risk scenario to be created, in accordance with the operations received by the input / output unit 11. In addition, the risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13 creates the creation conditions for the risk scenario. This creation of creation conditions also includes changing the creation conditions. For this reason, the risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13 can also be referred to as the scenario creation condition modification unit.

[0017] Furthermore, the incident information extraction unit 14 extracts incident information that matches the scenario creation conditions from the storage unit 19. Here, the scenario creation conditions may be stored in the storage unit 19 in advance, or they may be received by the input / output unit 11. It is also desirable for the incident information extraction unit 14 to extract multiple incident information. Furthermore, the similarity group creation unit 15 calculates the similarity of each incident information stored in the storage unit 19 and groups similar incident information. Here, similar incident information means multiple incident information within a predetermined similarity level.

[0018] Furthermore, the mitigation method creation unit 16 creates mitigation methods for scenario creation conditions based on the incident information grouped by the similar group creation unit 15 and the incident information extracted by the incident information extraction unit 14. The risk scenario creation unit 17 then creates risk scenarios using the mitigation methods created by the mitigation method creation unit 16. These risk scenarios include, for example, a parts supply reduction scenario in which the supply volume of parts related to the supply chain is reduced.

[0019] Furthermore, the procurement forecast calculation unit 18 calculates the forecast for the amount of parts to be procured in the supply chain using risk scenarios, such as the parts supply reduction scenario created by the risk scenario creation unit 17. In addition, the storage unit 19 stores input information 191 and output information 192. Input information 191 is received via the input / output unit 11 and includes incident information 1911, scenario creation conditions 1912, parts supply reduction information 1913, and procurement plan 1914. Output information 192 is output from the above-mentioned configurations such as the input / output unit 11 and includes similar group information 1921, mitigation methods 1922, risk scenario creation conditions 1923, reference data 1924, risk scenario 1925, and risk procurement plan 1926.

[0020] Each of these pieces of information will be explained below. In this embodiment, the information is divided into input information 191 and output information 192, but this division is not required. First, Figure 2 shows the incident information 1911 in this embodiment. The incident information 1911 is the target information related to the incident and includes the items of incident number, risk, area, industry, impact, and change in parts supply quantity.

[0021] First, the incident number is an item that identifies the incident in question and may be in a format other than a number. The risk indicates the nature of the risk in the incident. Risks can include not only natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, or typhoons as illustrated, but also man-made disasters such as accidents, wars, and conflicts.

[0022] Furthermore, the area indicates the region where the risk of the relevant incident occurs. In this embodiment, countries (United States, Japan) and states or prefectures (MI, Tokyo, etc.) are used, but cities or other areas such as a country may also be used. The industry indicates the industry related to the supply chain, specifically the industry of the products or components handled. The impact indicates the degree of risk.

[0023] Furthermore, the change in parts supply volume is time-series data showing the change in parts supply volume in the supply chain due to the occurrence of the relevant incident. For example, if an earthquake of magnitude 4 occurs in the United States (MI) with incident number 1, the behavior of the change in parts supply volume over time is shown. More specifically, the behavior shows (1) the time until the reduction in parts supply occurs, (2) the time and quantity of parts supply during the reduction, and (3) the time and quantity of recovery from the reduction in parts supply.

[0024] The supply quantity of parts may be set for each part, or it may be a uniform quantity that does not apply to parts. Furthermore, it may be set for each type of part.

[0025] Note that while Figure 2 shows these items, other items may be added or some may be omitted. Also, Incident Information 1911 may indicate an incident that occurred in the past, or an incident that is predicted or anticipated to occur.

[0026] Next, Figure 3 shows the scenario creation conditions 1912 in this embodiment. The scenario creation conditions 1912 indicate the conditions for creating a risk scenario and include the items of scenario number, risk, area, industry, and impact. The scenario number is an item that identifies the relevant scenario and may be in a format other than a number.

[0027] Furthermore, each item from Risk to Impact is the same as in Incident Information 1911, and indicates the conditions for creating the scenario. Thus, Scenario Creation Conditions 1912 has each item corresponding to Incident Information 1911. In addition, Scenario Creation Conditions 1912 may also include changes in the amount of parts supplied, similar to Incident Information 1911.

[0028] Next, Figure 4 shows the parts supply reduction information 1913 in this embodiment. The parts supply reduction information 1913 is information that shows the impact on the supply of parts in an incident that has occurred or is expected to occur. As this impact, the change in the supply quantity (more preferably the reduction) can be used. The change in the reduction amount can be the number of parts supplied, the supply capacity (percentage), etc.

[0029] Therefore, the parts supply reduction information 1913 includes the following items: incident number, date, and supply capacity. The incident number is the incident number from incident information 1911. The date indicates the date on which the incident occurred. This date may also be the date and time on which the incident is expected to occur. Furthermore, the supply capacity indicates the supply capacity, which is an example of the change in supply quantity when the incident occurs. This supply capacity represents the ratio of the supply capacity to that when the incident does not occur. Note that the supply capacity in the parts supply reduction information 1913 may be set for each type or group of parts, or it may be uniform for all parts as in this example.

[0030] Next, Figure 5 shows the procurement plan 1914 in this embodiment. The procurement plan 1914 shows the plan for procuring each component in the supply chain during normal times, such as when no incident has occurred. For this purpose, the procurement plan 1914 has the following items: component ID, due date, and quantity. The component ID identifies the component in question. The due date indicates the period (final day) until the component in question is procured. The quantity indicates the quantity to be procured. Note that the procurement plan 1914 may also use other items such as monetary value.

[0031] Next, Figure 6 shows the similar group information 1921 in this embodiment. The similar group information 1921 indicates the similar groups created by the similar group creation unit 15. The similar group information 1921 indicates which similar group each record of the incident information 1911 belongs to. For this purpose, the similar group information 1921 has the following items: incident number, risk, area, industry, impact, and similar group number. Here, the items from incident number to impact are the same as in the incident information 1911. In other words, the similar group information 1921 is information to which the similar group number has been added to the incident information 1911. Here, the similar group number is an item that identifies the similar group, but information other than a number may also be used. In this embodiment, the similar group information 1921 is in the form of incident information 1911 with a similar group number added, but since it is sufficient to know which similar group each incident information belongs to, it may also consist of the incident number and the similar group number. Furthermore, the incident information 1911 and the similar group information 1921 may be configured as a single piece of information. Therefore, similar to the incident information 1911, changes in the amount of parts supplied may also be included in the similar group information 1921.

[0032] Figure 7 shows the mitigation method 1922 in this embodiment. The mitigation method 1922 is created by the mitigation method creation unit 16 and indicates mitigable conditions in the risk scenario creation conditions, that is, the incident information items. In other words, it indicates the modifiable content among the risk scenario creation conditions. For this purpose, the mitigation method 1922 has the items of mitigation priority, item, and content. The mitigation priority indicates the priority of mitigation, that is, the modifiable priority. The item indicates the mitigable item among the risk scenario creation conditions. In the example in Figure 7, areas are set as each mitigable item. Furthermore, the content is set as the mitigable content for the corresponding item. In the example in Figure 7, it is shown that mitigation is possible for the United States (MI) and Japan (Tokyo) as areas.

[0033] Next, Figure 8 shows the risk scenario creation conditions 1923 in this embodiment. The risk scenario creation conditions 1923 show the content after the scenario creation conditions 1912 have been relaxed using the relaxation method 1922. Therefore, the risk scenario creation conditions 1923 have the same items as the scenario creation conditions 1912, and the modified records have been added. In the example in Figure 8, the area shown in the relaxation method 1922 in Figure 7 relates to the United States (NY), and the scenario creation conditions for the United States (MI) have been added. In this embodiment, the relaxed scenario creation conditions may be set as the relaxation method 1922. Furthermore, the risk scenario creation conditions 1923 may also include changes in the amount of parts supplied, similar to the incident information 1911.

[0034] Next, Figure 9 shows the reference data 1924 in this embodiment. The reference data 1924 is incident information to which the scenario creation conditions (records) added in the risk scenario creation conditions 1923 have been added. For this reason, it has the same items as the incident information 1911, and the information of incident number 1 corresponding to the scenario creation conditions added in the risk scenario creation conditions 1923 has been added. Note that, similar to the incident information 1911, parts supply quantity changes may also be included in the reference data 1924.

[0035] Next, Figure 10 shows the risk scenario 1925 in this embodiment. Risk scenario 1925 shows a mitigated scenario created using the risk scenario creation conditions 1923. A scenario is a procedure for calculating the forecast of the supply of parts and products due to an incident. In this embodiment, it has the items of part ID, date, and shared capacity. The part ID identifies the relevant part, similar to the procurement plan 1914. The date and shared capacity are the same items as the part supply reduction information 1913.

[0036] Next, Figure 11 shows the risk procurement plan 1926 in this embodiment. The risk procurement plan 1926 is a procurement plan in which the supply quantity of procurement plan 1914 is reduced by risk scenario 1925. For this reason, the risk procurement plan 1926 has the same items as procurement plan 1914. Comparing the risk procurement plan 1926 with procurement plan 1914, it can be seen that the quantity after 4 / 30 in the risk procurement plan 1926 is smaller, indicating that the quantity of parts supplied has been reduced. In other words, in this embodiment, a procurement plan that reduces the supply of parts in response to the occurrence of an incident can be formulated, enabling a response that is more in line with the current situation.

[0037] This concludes the explanation of the information in this embodiment, and next, the processing flow in this embodiment will be described. Figure 12 is a flowchart showing the risk scenario generation processing flow in this embodiment. First, in step S1, the risk scenario creation target selection unit 12 selects incident information to be used for risk scenario creation, that is, target information. In other words, it selects incident information 1911 to be stored in the storage unit 19. For this purpose, it may select from incident information received from the input / output unit 11, or it may select from incident information that has been stored in advance. Then, the risk scenario creation target selection unit 12 stores this as input information 191 in the storage unit 19.

[0038] Furthermore, in step S2, the risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13 creates risk scenario creation conditions 1923 based on the selected incident. The risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13 stores these as input information 191 in the storage unit 19.

[0039] Furthermore, in step S3, the incident information extraction unit 14 creates extraction conditions for incident information to be used as reference data. These extraction conditions correspond to the scenario creation conditions, and the scenario creation conditions may be reused. In response, in step S4, the incident information extraction unit 14 extracts incident information, which is reference data, that matches the extraction conditions. That is, the incident information extraction unit 14 extracts incident information corresponding to the scenario creation conditions from the incident information 1911 in the storage unit 19.

[0040] Furthermore, in step S5, it is determined whether there is any relevant reference data. In other words, it is determined whether incident information has been extracted. If there is (Y), the process proceeds to step S7. If there is no such data, the process proceeds to step S6. Note that this step is optional, and the process may proceed from step S4 to step S6, or from step S4 to step S7.

[0041] Furthermore, in step S6, a candidate range for the reference data is planned. In other words, the conditions for the incident information to be used as reference data are relaxed. To this end, the similarity group creation unit 15 first calculates the similarity of the incident information 1911 in the storage unit 19 and groups similar incident information together. Note that this grouping may be performed before step S6. In this case, it will be done regardless of the result of step S5.

[0042] Then, the mitigation method creation unit 16 creates a method for mitigating the incident information extraction conditions based on the grouped incident information and the incident information extracted by the incident information extraction unit 14. This mitigation method also includes a method for mitigating the scenario creation conditions. Furthermore, the mitigation method creation unit 16 uses the created mitigation method to mitigate the extraction conditions, particularly the scenario creation conditions.

[0043] Here, this relaxation process will be described in detail using a specific example. First, grouping will be described. The similar group creation unit 15 extracts the change in the component supply amount of the incident information 1911. This change in the component supply amount indicates the temporal transition of the component supply amount. This change in the component supply amount is shown in FIG. 13. Note that in FIG. 13, "#" indicates the incident number. And regarding these changes in the component supply amount, #2 and #5 are grouped into Gr. 1, #1 and #4 are grouped into Gr. 2, and #3 and #6 are grouped into Gr. 3. That is, the similar group creation unit 15 groups the incident information 1911 according to the tendency of the change in the component supply amount.

[0044] Next, the creation of a relaxation method using the grouped results will be described. In this example, a record serving as a relaxation method will be added to the scenario creation condition 1912 in FIG. 3. For this purpose, the relaxation method creation unit 16 selects the group corresponding to the target incident information. In the present embodiment, the relaxation method creation unit 16 selects Gr. 2 of incident numbers 1 and 4 in which the scenario creation condition 1912 and the area or industry are at least partially identical or similar. Also, the relaxation method creation unit 16 extracts the area or industry used for selecting Gr. 2. Then, the relaxation method creation unit 16 creates, as a relaxation method, extraction conditions corresponding to these areas or industries, particularly changes in the scenario creation condition. In the example of Gr. 2, these areas or industries are extracted as the United States (MI), Japan (Tokyo), and semiconductors.

[0045] Next, the relaxation method creation unit 16 relaxes the extraction conditions, particularly the scenario creation conditions, based on the created relaxation method. That is, the relaxation method creation unit 16 adds extraction conditions, particularly scenario creation conditions, using the extracted areas and industries. For example, since the United States (MI), Japan (Tokyo), and semiconductors have been extracted, the relaxation method creation unit 16 creates extraction conditions (scenario creation conditions) including these. More preferably, the relaxation method creation unit 16 further extracts the United States (MI), which is closer to the original extraction condition of the United States (NY) from these, and excludes semiconductors where the industries do not match. As a result, the risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13 will create the scenario creation conditions of the second record in FIG. 8. At this time, the risk scenario creation unit 17 compares the scenario creation condition 1912 with the incident information, and will update the scenario creation condition 1912 stored in the storage unit 19 based on the comparison result. After processing as described above, step S6 is executed, and the process transitions to step S2.

[0046] Also, in step S7, the risk scenario creation unit 17 creates a risk scenario using the created relaxation method. This risk scenario includes a component supply reduction scenario that reduces the component supply volume. Then, the risk scenario creation unit 17 stores the created risk scenario as the risk scenario 1925 in the storage unit 19.

[0047] Also, in step S7, the procurement outlook calculation unit 18 creates a risk procurement plan that reflects the created risk scenario. This risk procurement plan is an example of a component supply reduction procurement plan that is a plan to reduce the component supply volume. Then, the procurement outlook calculation unit 18 stores the created risk procurement plan as the risk procurement plan 1926 in the storage unit 19.

[0048] Also, in step S8, each of the risk scenario creation unit 17 and the procurement outlook calculation unit 18 determines whether the number of data created in step S7 is 1. As a result, if it is 2 or more (N), the process transitions to step S9. Also, if it is 1 (Y), the process transitions to step S10.

[0049] Furthermore, in step S9, the risk scenario creation unit 17 and the procurement forecast calculation unit 18 each select output data from the created data. This selection may be performed in accordance with instructions from the user via the input / output unit 11, or according to predetermined rules. Note that steps S8 and S9 may be omitted, and the process may proceed from step S7 to step S10.

[0050] Furthermore, in step S10, the risk scenario creation unit 17 outputs the created risk scenario 1925 via the input / output unit 11. This output includes notification to other devices and display on other devices or the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1.

[0051] Furthermore, in step S11, the procurement forecast calculation unit 18 outputs the created risk procurement plan 1926 via the input / output unit 11. This output includes notification to other devices and display on other devices or the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1.

[0052] Here, we will describe a specific example of the display that illustrates the output in steps S10 and S11. Figure 14 shows the display screen 1100 in this embodiment. This display screen 1100 includes the risk scenario creation conditions 1101, the risk scenario 1102, and the parts procurement plan 1103. Note that it is sufficient for at least one of these to be displayed.

[0053] First, the risk scenario creation condition 1101 represents the scenario creation condition 1912, and the display format of the area, which is a relaxed (added) item, or in particular a modified item, is distinguished from the others.

[0054] Furthermore, while Risk Scenario 1102 is a graphical representation of the created Risk Scenario 1925, it does not necessarily have to be in graphical form. In the figure, items 1 to 3 show the supply capacity for "time until parts supply reduction occurs," "time of parts supply reduction," and "time to recover from parts supply reduction," respectively. In this way, the scenario shows the relationship between the supply quantity of parts over time.

[0055] Furthermore, while the parts procurement plan 1103 is presented in graph form, the procurement plan 1914 and the risk procurement plan 1926 do not necessarily have to be presented in graph form, and the display of the procurement plan 1914 may be omitted. In the figure, the normal period shows the procurement plan 1914, and the incident period shows the modified risk procurement plan 1926. By displaying the procurement plan 1914 and the risk procurement plan 1926 together in this way, it is possible to intuitively grasp how much the procurement plan changed when an incident occurred. However, the parts procurement plan 1103 may also be limited to displaying only the risk procurement plan 1926.

[0056] This concludes the explanation of the processing flow in this embodiment. Next, an example of implementation of the configuration of this embodiment will be described. The supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 of this embodiment can be implemented using a computer such as a server or cloud system. Figure 15 is a hardware configuration diagram of the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 of this embodiment.

[0057] In Figure 15, the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 includes a processing unit 101, a communication device 102, a memory 103, and a sub-storage device 104, which are connected to each other via a communication path.

[0058] First, the processing unit 101 can be implemented using a processor such as a CPU, and it performs calculations according to the risk scenario creation program 105 stored in the sub-memory 104, which will be described later. The communication device 102 corresponds to the input / output unit 11 in Figure 1, connects to the network 3, and communicates with other devices such as the user terminal 2. As a result, the display screen 1100 in Figure 14 can be displayed on the user terminal 2.

[0059] Furthermore, the memory 103 and the sub-storage device 104 correspond to the storage unit 19 in Figure 1. The memory 103 stores the risk scenario creation program 105 and the information used for processing by the processing unit 101, which are stored in the sub-storage device 104. The sub-storage device 104 can be implemented as a so-called storage device. The sub-storage device 104 stores the risk scenario creation program 105, input information 191, and output information 192. The input information 191 and output information 192 include the various pieces of information that make them up as shown in Figure 1.

[0060] Furthermore, the secondary storage device 104 may be implemented using various storage media such as an external HDD (Hard Disk Drive), SSD (Solid State Drive), or memory card, or it may be implemented as a separate device from the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1, such as a file server.

[0061] The risk scenario creation program 105 consists of, for each function, a risk scenario creation target selection module 106, a risk scenario creation condition creation module 107, an incident information extraction module 108, a similar group creation module 109, a mitigation method creation module 110, a risk scenario creation module 111, and a procurement forecast calculation module 112. Note that each of these modules may be implemented as an individual program or as a combination of some of them.

[0062] Here, the configuration shown in Figure 1, which performs the same function as each module, is as follows: Risk scenario creation target selection module 106: Risk scenario creation target selection unit 12 Risk scenario creation condition creation module 107: Risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13 Incident information extraction module 108: Incident information extraction unit 14 Similar group creation module 109: Similar group creation unit 15 Mitigation method creation module 110: Mitigation method creation unit 16 Risk scenario creation module 111: Risk scenario creation unit 17 Procurement forecast calculation module 112: Procurement forecast calculation unit 18 Therefore, the processing unit 101 will execute the processing of the risk scenario creation target selection unit 12, the risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13, the incident information extraction unit 14, the similar group creation unit 15, the mitigation method creation unit 16, the risk scenario creation unit 17, and the procurement forecast calculation unit 18 according to the risk scenario creation program 105. The risk scenario creation program 105 can be stored in the sub-memory 104 or other storage medium.

[0063] This concludes the description of this embodiment, but the present invention is not limited thereto. For example, a delivery date extension scenario that extends delivery dates other than the parts supply reduction scenario may be created as a risk scenario, and a procurement plan with extended delivery dates may be formulated. Alternatively, the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 may have a unit, and the display screen 1100 of Figure 14 may be displayed on the display unit.

[0064] 1...Supply chain risk scenario creation support device, 11...Input / output unit, 12...Risk scenario creation target selection unit, 13...Risk scenario creation conditions, 14...Incident information extraction unit, 15...Similar group creation unit, 16...Mitigation method creation unit, 17...Risk scenario creation unit, 18...Procurement forecast calculation unit, 19...Storage unit, 191...Input information, 1911...Incident information, 1912...Scenario creation conditions, 1913...Parts supply reduction information, 1914...Procurement plan, 192...Output information, 1921...Similar group information, 1922...Mitigation method, 1923...Risk scenario creation conditions, 1924...Reference data, 1925...Risk scenario, 1926...Risk procurement plan

Claims

1. A supply chain risk scenario creation support device for creating risk scenarios to address reductions in the supply of parts affected by an incident, comprising: a storage unit that stores incident information which is target information indicating an incident, parts supply reduction information indicating the amount of reduction in parts supply corresponding to the occurrence of the incident, and scenario creation conditions for creating the risk scenario; an incident information extraction unit that extracts incident information corresponding to the scenario creation conditions from the storage unit; a similarity group creation unit that calculates the similarity of each incident information stored in the storage unit and groups similar incident information; a mitigation method creation unit that creates a method for mitigating the scenario creation conditions based on the incident information grouped by the similarity group creation unit and the incident information extracted by the incident information extraction unit; a scenario creation condition creation unit that creates risk scenario creation conditions to mitigate the scenario creation conditions based on the mitigation method created by the mitigation method creation unit when there is no incident information corresponding to the scenario creation conditions in the incident information extraction unit; and a risk scenario creation unit that creates a risk scenario based on the scenario creation conditions created by the scenario creation condition creation unit.

2. A supply chain risk scenario creation support device according to claim 1, wherein the similarity group creation unit calculates the similarity of each incident information using at least one of the following: the time from the occurrence of an incident to the occurrence of a reduction in parts supply, the time and quantity of the reduction in parts supply, and the time and quantity of recovery from the reduction in parts supply.

3. A supply chain risk scenario creation support device according to claim 1, further comprising a procurement forecast calculation unit that calculates a risk procurement plan based on the risk scenario and the procurement plan stored in the storage unit.

4. A supply chain risk scenario creation support device according to claim 3, further comprising a display unit that displays the risk scenario creation conditions, the risk scenario, and the procurement plan and the parts procurement plan including the risk procurement plan.

5. A supply chain risk scenario creation support device according to claim 1, wherein the risk scenario creation unit creates a parts supply reduction scenario that reduces the amount of parts supplied as the risk scenario.

6. A supply chain risk scenario creation support method executed by a supply chain risk scenario creation support device for creating risk scenarios to address reductions in the supply of parts affected by an incident, comprising: a storage unit storing incident information which is target information indicating an incident, parts supply reduction information indicating the amount of reduction in parts supply corresponding to the occurrence of the incident, and scenario creation conditions for creating the risk scenario; an incident information extraction unit extracting incident information corresponding to the scenario creation conditions from the storage unit; a similar group creation unit calculating the similarity of each incident information stored in the storage unit and grouping similar incident information; a mitigation method creation unit creating a mitigation method for the scenario creation conditions based on the incident information grouped by the similar group creation unit and the incident information extracted by the incident information extraction unit; and a risk scenario creation condition creation unit creating risk scenario creation conditions that mitigate the scenario creation conditions based on the mitigation method created by the mitigation method creation unit when there is no incident information corresponding to the scenario creation conditions in the incident information extraction unit. A supply chain risk scenario creation support method, wherein a risk scenario creation unit creates a risk scenario based on scenario creation conditions created by the risk scenario creation condition creation unit.

7. A supply chain risk scenario creation support method according to claim 6, wherein the similarity group creation unit calculates the similarity of each incident information using at least one of the following: the time from the occurrence of an incident to the occurrence of a reduction in parts supply, the time and quantity of the reduction in parts supply, and the time and quantity of recovery from the reduction in parts supply.

8. A supply chain risk scenario creation support method according to claim 6, wherein the supply chain risk scenario creation support device further comprises a procurement forecast calculation unit, and the procurement forecast calculation unit calculates a risk procurement plan based on the risk scenario and the procurement plan stored in the storage unit.

9. A supply chain risk scenario creation support method according to claim 8, wherein the supply chain risk scenario creation support device further comprises a display unit, the display unit displaying the risk scenario creation conditions, the risk scenario, and the procurement plan and the parts procurement plan including the risk procurement plan.

10. A supply chain risk scenario creation support method according to claim 6, wherein the risk scenario creation unit creates a parts supply reduction scenario that reduces the amount of parts supplied as the risk scenario.

11. A computer supply chain risk scenario creation support device that creates risk scenarios to address the reduction in the supply of parts affected by the occurrence of an incident, comprising: a storage unit that stores incident information, which is target information indicating an incident; parts supply reduction information, which indicates the amount of reduction in the supply of parts corresponding to the occurrence of the incident; and scenario creation conditions for creating the risk scenario; an incident information extraction unit that extracts incident information corresponding to the scenario creation conditions from the storage unit; a similarity group creation unit that calculates the similarity of each incident information stored in the storage unit and groups similar incident information; a mitigation method creation unit that creates a method for mitigating the scenario creation conditions based on the incident information grouped by the similarity group creation unit and the incident information extracted by the incident information extraction unit; a risk scenario creation condition creation unit that creates risk scenario creation conditions to mitigate the scenario creation conditions based on the mitigation method created by the mitigation method creation unit when there is no incident information corresponding to the scenario creation conditions in the incident information extraction unit; and a program that causes the device to function as a risk scenario creation unit that creates a risk scenario based on the scenario creation conditions created by the risk scenario creation condition creation unit.

12. The program according to claim 11, wherein the similarity group creation unit is a program that calculates the similarity of each incident information using at least one of the following: the time from the occurrence of an incident to the occurrence of a reduction in parts supply, the time and quantity of the reduction in parts supply, and the time and quantity of recovery from the reduction in parts supply.

13. A program according to claim 11, further comprising a program that functions as a procurement forecast calculation unit that calculates a risk procurement plan based on the risk scenario and the procurement plan stored in the memory unit.

14. A program according to claim 13, further comprising a display unit that displays the risk scenario creation conditions, the risk scenario, and the procurement plan and the parts procurement plan including the risk procurement plan.

15. The program according to claim 11, wherein the risk scenario creation unit is a program that creates a parts supply reduction scenario for reducing the amount of parts supplied as the risk scenario.

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