Natural resource-forest ecology-social economy system coupling coordination management mode

Abstract

The invention provides a natural resource-forest ecology-social economic system coupling coordination management mode, which belongs to the field of resource management and comprises the following steps: (1) selection of a research area: selecting a Yellow River basin as the research area according to economic development, forest resources and population conditions; (2) constructing an evaluation index system of a natural resource-forest ecology-social economy system by using an Entropy Evaluation Method (EEM), which comprises the steps of establishing a forest ecology function subsystem, a natural resource subsystem and a social economy subsystem; and (3) through a coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) and an obstacle diagnosis model (ODM), the coupling coordination relationship of the natural resource-forest ecology-social economy system and the influence factors of the coupling coordination relationship are measured, and the forest ecology-social economy system and the influence factors of the forest ecology-social economy system are measured through the coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) and the obstacle diagnosis model (ODM). According to the research, a feasible path can be provided for differential management of the drainage basin, and protection and sustainable development of a drainage basin ecological system are promoted.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of resource management, and in particular to a management model for coupling and coordination of natural resources, forest ecology and social economy systems. Background Art

[0002] Human activities are one of the important driving forces affecting changes in regional climate and ecosystem service functions. Under the strong influence of human activities, global resources and environment are facing unprecedented pressure. The relationship between human activity systems and ecosystems is opposite and unified. The level of economic development depends on the continuous supply of natural materials and energy, and this dependence increases with the growth of the world population and the improvement of human living standards. Similarly, watershed systems are typical areas of human interaction, and human activities may have a profound impact on watershed ecosystem services and governance.

[0003] In nature, mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes, grasslands and deserts are interdependent and closely related life communities. They interact and influence each other through energy flow and material circulation, forming a relatively independent and interdependent relationship, and jointly maintaining the normal operation of the earth's ecosystem. It is necessary to systematically and comprehensively manage the basin as a whole with natural resources such as mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes, grasslands, and deserts. At the same time, humans are also the main body of natural resource development and utilization. They have a strong dependence on natural resources. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the relationship between human activities and natural resources in the basin. Forests are the basis of other natural resources. In particular, forest ecosystems have important hydrological functions. Forest ecosystems can promote rainfall, affect water movement in the soil, change the confluence conditions of runoff generation, reduce floods to a certain extent, and improve soil environment and structure. Forest resources play a protective role in water resources through water cycle, soil protection, ecological protection and flood control. The importance of forest ecosystems is not only reflected in carbon fixation and oxygen release, air purification, climate regulation, soil and water conservation, biodiversity maintenance, beautification of the environment, and promotion of human civilization, but also in providing material products such as wood, energy materials, animal and plant forest byproducts, and chemical and medical resources for humans. At the same time, human activities will also affect the ecological functions of forests. Due to the impact of human activities, the rate of forest resource consumption has increased rapidly. If the situation is not alleviated, it will not only restrict economic and social development, but also destroy the ecological balance and affect human survival.

[0004] A river basin is a complex geographic spatial system that integrates water security, ecological security, food security and economic development. As an important ecological and economic region in my country, the Yellow River Basin plays an important role in social and economic development and ecological security. The overexploitation of natural resources and human activities has had a negative impact on the natural ecosystem and biodiversity of the Yellow River Basin. With the predatory development of natural resources and the low development and utilization of forest ecology, the cooperative symbiotic relationship of ecological security, environmental friendliness, economic development and social coordination in the Yellow River Basin system has been seriously distorted. This also poses a huge threat to the ecological security and sustainable economic development of the Yellow River Basin. In order to protect the ecology and promote economic development, the Chinese government issued the Outline of the Ecological Protection and High-quality Development Plan for the Yellow River Basin in October 2021. This not only provides guidance for regional practice, but also attracts the attention of researchers. Existing studies have studied the relationship between ecological protection and economic development in the Yellow River Basin from different perspectives. First, some researchers have studied the relationship between economic development and ecological environment in different periods through different methods. They found that the coupling degree between economic development and ecological environment is high, and the relationship between regional economy and ecological environment is constantly improving and showing a coordinated trend. The relationship between environmental protection and economic development in the Yellow River Basin has significant spatial aggregation characteristics. In the Yellow River Basin, the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of economic development and ecological environment shows significant regional heterogeneity. Some scholars insist that in order to continue to strengthen the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, the contradiction between economy and ecology should be alleviated and the coordinated development of the two should be achieved. On the other hand, some researchers pay more attention to water resources and water resource utilization, industrial development and ecological welfare, economy-energy-water (EEW), water resources, economy and ecosystem and water-energy-food (WEF) in the Yellow River Basin. In addition, there are many methods to analyze the relationship between ecological protection and economic development in the Yellow River Basin, including coupling coordination degree models. GIS spatial analysis methods and NAR neural network models, spatial Durbin models, spatial autoregression and geographically weighted regression models.

[0005] Existing research shows that there are still some deficiencies in the relationship between economic development and ecological environment: (1) Few studies have explored the relationship between forest ecological functions and natural resources, and almost no studies have explored the relationship between forest ecology, natural resources and social economy. (2) There are great differences in geographical topography, climate and ecological environment in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin, and the problems faced by different basins are also different. However, few scholars have proposed differentiated development strategies. On this basis, under the background of high-level ecological protection and high-quality economic development, the relationship between the forest ecosystem, natural resource system and human activity system in the Yellow River Basin is revealed, and differentiated development models for different basins are proposed, providing a scientific basis for ecological protection and sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin from the aspects of systematization, integration and coordination. Summary of the invention

[0006] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides a management model for coupling and coordinating natural resources, forest ecology and social economy system, including:

[0007] (1) Selection of study area: The Yellow River Basin was selected as the study area based on economic development, forest resources, and population conditions;

[0008] (2) Entropy evaluation method (EEM) constructs an evaluation index system of natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system: including the establishment of forest ecological function subsystem, natural resource subsystem, and socio-economic subsystem;

[0009] (3) The coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) and the obstacle diagnosis model (ODM) were used to measure the coupling coordination relationship and influencing factors of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system.

[0010] Preferably, the secondary indicators of the forest ecological function subsystem in step (2) include forest biomass (FB), naturalness (FN), community structure (FC), tree species structure (TS), vegetation coverage (VC), canopy density (CD), average tree height (AT), and thickness level of dead branches and fallen leaves (TL).

[0011] Preferably, in step (2), the natural resources subsystem is used to divide the natural resources of the Yellow River Basin provinces into two categories: natural resource conditions and natural resource types, wherein the secondary indicators of natural resource conditions include administrative area (AA), climate comfort (CC), terrain undulation (RA), grassland coverage (GC), wetland coverage (CRW), and desertified land coverage (CRD); the secondary indicators of natural resource types include per capita water resources (TW) and energy production per unit area (EP).

[0012] As a preferred method, in step (2), the establishment of the social and economic subsystem selects 7 indicators in the economic development dimension, 7 indicators in the social progress dimension, and 4 indicators in the ecological policy dimension;

[0013] Including economic density (ED), proportion of primary industry added value (PI), proportion of secondary industry added value (SI), per capita disposable income (DI), proportion of cultivated land area (CL), conversion of organic fertilizer per unit area (AF), and use of agricultural plastic film (PF);

[0014] The seven indicators of social progress dimension include urbanization rate (UR), population density (PD), natural population growth rate (PG), road network density (RN), green coverage rate of built-up areas (GC), number of tourists received per unit area (NV), number of legal entities in culture, sports and entertainment industries per unit area (NL);

[0015] The four indicators of the ecological policy dimension include the proportion of fiscal expenditure on environmental protection (FE), the proportion of national nature reserves (NN), the amount of forestry investment per unit area of ​​natural forest resource protection projects (NFP), and the amount of forestry investment per unit area of ​​returning farmland to forest projects (RFF).

[0016] Preferably, the entropy evaluation method in step (2): EEM is used to measure the disorder of the system. Now, it is usually used to determine the weight of the index by calculating the information entropy of the index items. The main steps are as follows:

[0017] (1) The original data of the indicator layer is standardized to eliminate the influence of different dimensions; the standard normalization method is adopted:

[0018] For positive indicators:

[0019]

[0020] For negative indicators:

[0021]

[0022] X' ij Where is the standardized value of the jth indicator in the i-th province, X ij Represents the original value, maxX j x j Respectively represent the maximum and minimum values ​​of the j-th index;

[0023] (2) Calculate the information entropy of the jth indicator;

[0024]

[0025] Y ij where is the ratio of the standardized value of the province i of the jth indicator to the standardized value of the whole basin, e j Represents the information entropy of each system indicator j:

[0026] (3) Calculate the weight of the jth indicator in the system;

[0027]

[0028] w j represents the weight of the above indicators based on information entropy, and n represents the total number of indicators in the system;

[0029] Since the indicators are standardized, Y ij It contains the value 0, so the exponential conversion method is used when calculating the information entropy, adding 0.00001 to the value 0.

[0030] Preferably, the coupling coordination degree model CCDM in step (3) can be used to analyze the impact phenomenon and interaction degree between two or more systems; when the system is disconnected and lacks coordination, the coupling coordination degree will decrease, thereby affecting the sustainable development of the region. The calculation steps are as follows:

[0031] (1) Calculate the total score

[0032] The comprehensive score can reflect the comprehensive development level of each system and the whole. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0033] T i =αS Fi +βS Si +γS Ni (6)

[0034] Among them, α, β and γ represent the weights of comprehensive evaluation indicators of forest ecology, social economy and natural resource system respectively;

[0035] (2) Calculate the coupling degree (CD)

[0036]

[0037] C i where represents the total CD of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system of the i-th province, and the CD value ranges from 0 to 1; when C is 1, it means that the interaction between systems is the greatest, tending to a new and more advanced functional body; when C is 0, it means that there is no interaction and mutual influence between systems, and they are at an irrelevant level;

[0038] (3) Calculation of coupling coordination degree (CCD)

[0039] CD is of great significance for distinguishing the intensity of coupling effects of natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system and the development sequence of the three systems; however, it is difficult to reflect the overall function or development level of the system, so it is necessary to construct a CCD model;

[0040]

[0041] Wherein, D represents CCD. When D is 0, it indicates that the whole system is in an absolutely non-misaligned state.

[0042] As a preferred method, step (3) Obstacle Diagnosis Model ODM: ODM is a mathematical model that can find factors that affect the sustainable development of the system. ODM analyzes the main factors that affect the overall goal based on the degree of obstacles of the diagnostic evaluation factors. The calculation steps are as follows:

[0043] (1) Factor contribution rate

[0044] The factor contribution rate represents the contribution rate of a single indicator to the coupling coordination degree of the natural resources-forest ecology-social economy system; the calculation formula is as follows:

[0045] U j =R j ×W j (9)

[0046] Among them U j Indicates the contribution rate of this indicator to the overall indicator R j represents the weight of the criterion layer to which the jth indicator belongs, and W j represents the weight of the j-th indicator;

[0047] (2) Index deviation

[0048] The indicator deviation degree refers to the degree of deviation between each individual indicator and the whole, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0049] V j =1-D ij (10)

[0050] Where V j Indicates the degree of deviation of the indicator, and D ij Represents the standardized value of a single indicator;

[0051] (3) Degree of Obstacle

[0052] Obstacle degree refers to the influence of each single indicator and each system on the coupling and coordination of natural resources-forest ecology-social economy system; the calculation formula is as follows:

[0053]

[0054] Where B k Indicates the degree of obstacle of each indicator, M j It represents the degree of obstacle of each indicator in the criterion layer to the coupling coordination of natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system, and m represents the number of indicators contained in the criterion layer. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0055] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the present disclosure, the following briefly introduces the drawings required to be used in some embodiments of the present disclosure. Obviously, the drawings described below are only drawings of some embodiments of the present disclosure. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can also be obtained based on these drawings. In addition, the drawings described below can be regarded as schematic diagrams, and are not limitations on the actual size of the product involved in the embodiments of the present disclosure, the actual process of the method, the actual timing of the signal, etc.

[0056] Figure 1 for the relationship between natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system;

[0057] Figure 2 location and land use type for the study area;

[0058] Figure 3 Score the forest ecology subsystem of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system.

[0059] Figure 4 Score the natural resources subsystem of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system.

[0060] Figure 5 Score the socio-economic subsystem of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system.

[0061] Figure 6 Score the comprehensive development level of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system.

[0062] Figure 7 is the spatial distribution of system coordination degree (CD).

[0063] Figure 8 is the spatial distribution of the system coupling coordination degree (CCD).

[0064] Fig. 9 It is an obstacle factor to the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system in the Yellow River Basin.

[0065] Fig.10 These are the five major obstacles for each province. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0066] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the technical solutions in this application, the following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of this application to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of this application, not all of them. Based on the embodiments in this application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work should fall within the scope of protection of this application.

[0067] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0068] The present invention is described in further detail below by way of examples.

[0069] 1 Construction of theoretical mechanism

[0070] Natural resources, forest ecology and socio-economics interact and influence each other to form a complex system ( Figure 1 ). Natural resource systems and forest ecosystems. As an important part of natural resources, forest resources are unique compared to other natural resources. On the one hand, forest ecosystems with forest resources as the carrier have the functions of water conservation, climate regulation and soil integration, which can improve natural resources such as water resources and land resources. On the other hand, natural resources such as water resources and land resources can enhance the functions of forest ecosystems and enhance natural resource systems and socio-economic systems. Natural resources are the basis of economic development. Economic development depends on the continuous supply of natural materials and energy. With the growth of the world's population and the improvement of people's living standards, this dependence is increasing. Economic development is based on the growth of natural resource consumption. Forest ecosystems and socio-economic systems Ecosystems are necessary conditions for social and economic development, and social and economic development can also optimize the ecological environment Forest ecosystems provide tangible material products, such as woody food and non-wood forest products, and intangible service products, such as purified air.

[0071] At the same time, economic development and social progress can provide the necessary funds and technologies for forest resource protection and effective maintenance of forest ecological functions. The natural resources-forest ecology-social economy system is not only the exchange of materials, energy and information between these systems, but also the circulation and transformation of value flows. On the one hand, economic development has increased the demand for natural resources and ecosystems. On the other hand, the supply capacity of overburdened and polluted ecosystems has declined relatively, which has brought severe challenges to the development of human society.

[0072] 2. Selection of research area

[0073] like Figure 2 The Yellow River Basin is located between 96° and 119°E and 32° and 42°N, with a length of about 5,464 km from east to west and a width of about 1,100 km from north to south. It drains an area of ​​about 795,000 km 2 . As of the end of 2021, the total population of the Yellow River Basin is 420.63 million, accounting for 29.14% of China's population. The forest area is 7. 32×10 7 hm 2 , accounting for 31.72% of China’s population. 8 m 2 , accounting for 26.22% of the Chinese market share. The GDP is 2 yuan. 87×10 10, accounting for 25.08% of China's population. These main conditions are different in each province (Table 1). The Yellow River Basin has a natural ecological corridor and an important ecological functional zone. The main reasons for choosing the Yellow River Basin as the research area are as follows: First, the Yellow River Basin is the core area of ​​ecological civilization construction in northern China, and forest resources can play an important role in the construction of ecological civilization. Second, the Yellow River Basin is the country's mountains, rivers, forests, land and lakes, which form a community of shared life; forest resources can play a connecting role in basin protection and system governance. Third, the Yellow River Basin is an important area of ​​human activities and economic development; forest resources can ensure high-quality economic development.

[0074] Table 1 Economic development, forest resources and population in the Yellow River Basin

[0075]

[0076] 3. Methodology

[0077] 3.1. Construction of evaluation index system

[0078] 3.1.1 Forest ecological function subsystem

[0079] The "Technical Regulations for Continuous Inventory of National Forest Resources" (GB / T38590-2020) proposes the "forest ecological function" indicator. Its evaluation index system is shown in Table 2. The forest ecological subsystem is constructed, and the entropy evaluation method is used to assign weights to each indicator to maintain objectivity and consistency with the calculation methods of the other two subsystems.

[0080] Table 2 Indicators of forest ecological function subsystems in the Yellow River Basin

[0081]

[0082] Note: ① The numbers in brackets in the table indicate the scores of each factor under different types of I, II and III. When all factors belong to type I, the plot gets the highest score of 100. ② The naturalness is divided according to the difference between the vegetation status and the original top community, or the stage of the secondary community in succession (Wang Bochang et al., 2007). From "1" to "5", the intensity of human disturbance increases. ③ The forest community structure from "1" to "3" represents complete structure, relatively complete structure and simple structure, indicating that the vegetation layers of the forest stand are from more to less. ④ In the tree species structure, "1, 2" indicates a pure forest with a single coniferous / broadleaved tree species stock or number ≥ 90%; "3, 4" indicates a relatively pure forest with a single coniferous / broadleaved tree species stock or number accounting for 65% to 90%; "5, 6, 7" indicates a mixed forest with a coniferous tree species stock or number ≥ 65%, a mixed forest with a broadleaved tree species stock or number ≥ 65%, and a mixed coniferous and broadleaved forest with a total coniferous or broadleaved tree species stock or number accounting for 35% to 65%. ⑤ Total vegetation coverage refers to the proportion of the vertical projection coverage area of ​​trees, shrubs and grasses in the sample plot to the sample plot area. ⑥ Canopy closure refers to the proportion of the vertical projection coverage area of ​​trees and bamboo crowns in a tree forest, bamboo forest or sparse forest sample plot to the sample plot area.

[0083] 3.1.2 Natural resources subsystem

[0084] Natural resource endowment determines the ecological and environmental background of a region and is of great significance to the ecological function of forests and the economic and social development of their locations. Considering the comprehensiveness of the indicator system and the accessibility of data, we divide the natural resources of the Yellow River Basin provinces into two categories: natural resource conditions and natural resource types, as shown in Table 3.

[0085] Table 3 Indicators of natural resource subsystems in the Yellow River Basin

[0086]

[0087]

[0088] 3.1.3 Social and economic subsystem

[0089] Humans disturb nature and forest ecology with various socio-economic activities and activities of varying intensities. Therefore, when establishing the connection between socio-economics and natural resources and forest ecology, multiple perspectives should be considered to ensure the comprehensiveness of each indicator. We consider the socio-economic subsystem as an organic whole and evaluate the economic, social, cultural, political and ecological dimensions of human activities. Finally, 7 indicators were selected for the economic development dimension, 7 indicators for the social progress dimension, and 4 indicators for the ecological policy dimension, as shown in Table 4.

[0090] Table 4 Indicators of the socio-economic subsystems in the Yellow River Basin

[0091]

[0092]

[0093] 3.2 Entropy evaluation method

[0094] EEM is used to measure the disorder of a system. Now, it is often used to determine the weight of an index by calculating the information entropy of the index items. The main steps are as follows.

[0095] (1) The original data of the indicator layer is standardized to eliminate the influence of different dimensions; the standard normalization method is adopted:

[0096] For positive indicators:

[0097]

[0098] For negative indicators:

[0099]

[0100] X' ij Where is the standardized value of the jth indicator in the i-th province, X ij Represents the original value, maxX j x j Respectively represent the maximum and minimum values ​​of the j-th index;

[0101] (2) Calculate the information entropy of the jth indicator;

[0102]

[0103] Y ij where is the ratio of the standardized value of the province i of the jth indicator to the standardized value of the whole basin, e j Represents the information entropy of each system indicator j:

[0104] (3) Calculate the weight of the jth indicator in the system;

[0105]

[0106] w j represents the weight of the above indicators based on information entropy, and n represents the total number of indicators in the system;

[0107] Since the indicators are standardized, Y ij It contains the value 0, so the exponential conversion method is used when calculating the information entropy, adding 0.00001 to the value 0.

[0108] 3.3. Coupled Coordination Degree Model (CCDM)

[0109] The CCDM model can be used to analyze the impact phenomena and interaction degree between two or more systems. When the system is disconnected and lacks coordination, the degree of coupling coordination will decrease, thus affecting the sustainable development of the region. The calculation steps are as follows.

[0110] (1) Calculate the total score

[0111] The comprehensive score can reflect the comprehensive development level of each system and the whole. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0112] T i =αS Fi +βS Si +γS Ni (6)

[0113] Among them, α, β and γ represent the weights of comprehensive evaluation indicators of forest ecology, social economy and natural resource system respectively;

[0114] (2) Calculate the coupling degree (CD)

[0115]

[0116] C i where represents the total CD of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system of the i-th province, and the CD value ranges from 0 to 1; when C is 1, it means that the interaction between systems is the greatest, tending to a new and more advanced functional body; when C is 0, it means that there is no interaction and mutual influence between systems, and they are at an irrelevant level;

[0117] (3) Calculation of coupling coordination degree (CCD)

[0118] CD is of great significance for distinguishing the intensity of coupling effects of natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system and the development sequence of the three systems; however, it is difficult to reflect the overall function or development level of the system, so it is necessary to construct a CCD model;

[0119]

[0120] Wherein, D represents CCD. When D is 0, it indicates that the whole system is in an absolutely non-misaligned state.

[0121] By calculating CCD, we can classify the CCD of each province. The classification levels are shown in Table 5.

[0122] Table 5 Standard classification levels of CD and CCD

[0123]

[0124] 3.4 Obstacle Diagnostic Model (ODM)

[0125] ODM is a mathematical model that can find the factors that affect the sustainable development of the system. ODM analyzes the main factors that affect the overall goal based on the degree of obstacles of the diagnostic evaluation factors. The calculation steps are as follows.

[0126] (1) Factor contribution rate

[0127] The factor contribution rate represents the contribution rate of a single indicator to the coupling coordination degree of the natural resources-forest ecology-social economy system; the calculation formula is as follows:

[0128] U j =R j ×W j (9)

[0129] Among them U j Indicates the contribution rate of this indicator to the overall indicator R j represents the weight of the criterion layer to which the jth indicator belongs, and W j represents the weight of the j-th indicator;

[0130] (2) Index deviation

[0131] The indicator deviation refers to the degree of deviation between each individual indicator and the whole, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0132] V j =1-D ij (10)

[0133] Where V j Indicates the degree of deviation of the indicator, and D ij Represents the standardized value of a single indicator;

[0134] (3) Degree of Obstacle

[0135] Obstacle degree refers to the influence of each single indicator and each system on the coupling and coordination of natural resources-forest ecology-social economy system; the calculation formula is as follows:

[0136]

[0137] Where B k Indicates the degree of obstacle of each indicator, M j It represents the degree of obstacle of each indicator in the criterion layer to the coupling coordination of natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system, and m represents the number of indicators contained in the criterion layer.

[0138] 3.5 Data Source

[0139] The data of the forest ecological subsystem comes from the results of the ninth forest resource inventory of China. The forest resource inventory refers to the survey of natural environmental factors such as trees and woodlands. Its purpose is to find out the distribution, type, quantity and quality of forest resources, objectively reflect the natural and economic conditions, and thus put forward comprehensive and accurate forest resource survey data. Compared with the single forest vegetation coverage, these dates can scientifically evaluate the ecological function of the forest.

[0140] In the natural resources subsystem, except for the average terrain relief grid data which comes from the Global Change Science Research Data Publishing System (https: / / www.geodoi.ac.cn / ), the rest of the natural resource data comes from the China Environmental Statistical Yearbook.

[0141] Data on social and economic subsystems are publicly available in China's yearbooks. Indicators related to economic development and social progress come from the China Statistical Yearbook and the National Statistical Communiqué on Economic and Social Development; data on forestry policy indicators come from the Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook.

[0142] To improve the legitimacy and reliability of the data, we selected the values ​​of each indicator for 2018 and supplemented the missing data of each province for previous and subsequent years.

[0143] 4. Results

[0144] 4.1 Scores of the three subsystems

[0145] As shown in the figure, in the Yellow River Basin, the ranking of the comprehensive scores of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system is as follows: Shandong Province > Sichuan Province > Henan Province > Qinghai Province > Shaanxi Province > Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region > Shanxi Province > Gansu Province > Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. The natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic comprehensive scores show a medium-low and high spatial distribution ( Figure 6 ). Shandong Province has the highest forest ecosystem score, while Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region has the lowest. The difference between the highest and lowest forest ecosystem subsystem scores is 0.7139, indicating that the functional gap of forest ecosystems between provinces is obvious. The ranking is Shandong Province > Sichuan Province > Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region > Henan Province > Qinghai Province > Shaanxi Province > Shanxi Province > Gansu Province > Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region ( Figure 3 ). Qinghai Province has the highest score for natural resource system, while Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region has the lowest score. The specific ranking is Qinghai Province > Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region > Shanxi Province > Sichuan Province > Shaanxi Province > Shandong Province > Henan Province > Gansu Province > Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region ( Figure 4 ). Figure 5It shows that from west to east, the comprehensive scores of the social and economic systems of various provinces are on a downward trend. Shandong Province has the highest social and economic system score, while Gansu Province has the lowest. The ranking is Shandong Province> Henan Province> Shaanxi Province> Sichuan Province> Shanxi Province> Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region> Qinghai Province> Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region> Gansu Province ( Figure 5 ).

[0146] 4.2 Coupling coordination

[0147] Table 6 shows that the CD of each province fluctuates between 0.9299 and 0.9994. According to the CD classification level in Table 5, all provinces are at a high coupling level. In addition, the CCD ranking of each province is as follows: Shandong Province > Sichuan Province > Henan Province > Qinghai Province > Shaanxi Province > Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region > Shanxi Province > Gansu > Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region - from 0.4529 to 0.7272, belonging to the level of intermediate coordination of marginal barriers. Figure 7 and Figure 8 It can be seen that the CD and CCD of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system in the Yellow River Basin are centered on the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, showing a "medium-medium-high" pattern. In summary, the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system has not been misplaced in the Yellow River Basin, but there is still a certain gap in quality coordination.

[0148] Table 6. CD and CCD of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system

[0149]

[0150] 4.3 Obstacles

[0151] The influencing factors in different regions are also different. Among them, the socio-economic subsystem in the middle and upper reaches is the main influencing factor. Especially in Qinghai Province, the influencing factors of the socio-economic subsystem account for 59.94%. In the downstream area, the main influencing factor is the natural resource subsystem. In general, the factors affecting the coordinated development of the Yellow River Basin are mainly concentrated in the social and economic subsystems, followed by the natural resource subsystem ( Fig. 9 ).

[0152] Specifically, the influencing factors vary greatly in each province (Appendix). In order to better understand the influencing factors of each province and propose a targeted coordinated development model, this paper mainly analyzes the five major obstacle factors in each province. Fig.10 Five major obstacle factors are described for each province in the Yellow River Basin.

[0153] 5 Discussions

[0154] 5.1 Coupling coordination analysis

[0155] The Yellow River Basin is a complex region composed of natural geography, social and economic development. In order to achieve a balance between ecological protection and economic development in the region, it is necessary to analyze this issue from a systematic perspective. Previous studies have found that from 2005 to 2018, economic development and ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin showed an intensive coupling state. The interaction between social economy and ecology has increased significantly, but has gradually weakened. In addition, the degree of coupling coordination reflects the continuous improvement and coordination trend of the relationship between regional development and ecological environment. Similarly, this paper found an intensive coupling relationship between natural resources, forest ecology and socio-economic systems in the Yellow River Basin. At the same time, the CCD varies greatly among different provinces. For example, Shandong Province scored the highest among the nine provinces with an intermediate coordination level. This is because it is located in the downstream and is the only coastal province in the entire basin. It is also the central area of ​​economic development in the Yellow River Delta. In recent years, the government has promoted ecological restoration in key areas such as Dongping and Dawen, effectively strengthened the protection of forest resources, promoted economic development under the premise of ecological protection, and alleviated the contradiction between economic development and ecological protection. The CCD of the natural resource-forest ecology-socio-economic system in Sichuan Province, Henan Province, Qinghai Province, Shaanxi Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is at the primary coordination level, indicating that the relationship between the natural resource-forest ecology-socio-economic system needs to be further improved. The reasons for each province are different. For example, Henan Province has improved the ecological environment after a series of ecological governance, but the pollution caused by agriculture and human activities cannot be ignored. The heavy polluting industries along the Yellow River Basin are relatively concentrated, and the industrial structure needs to be optimized, so the contradiction between economic development and environmental protection still exists. On the contrary, Qinghai Province is located at the source of the Yellow River Basin, with obvious ecological advantages and rich natural resources, but its economic development level is relatively backward, indicating that its important ecological value has not been effectively transformed into economic value, resulting in poor coordination between the natural resource-forest ecology-socio-economic system. As shown in Table 6, the coupling coordination degree of the natural resource-forest ecology-socio-economic system in Gansu Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is low, indicating that the contradiction between natural resource-forest ecology-socio-economic is quite prominent. The economic development, natural resources and ecological function levels of forests in these areas are very low. Gansu Province, in particular, undertakes important tasks of ecological restoration and protection such as improving water conservation functions, strengthening soil erosion control, and improving water resource utilization. Although the existing natural resources are limited and the regional economic development level is backward. Therefore, the contradictory relationship between economic development and ecological protection has always been a key issue restricting sustainable development. Similarly, the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region lacks water resources to support industrial development, and the effective utilization of natural resources is still at a low level, resulting in the contradiction between industrial development and ecological environmental protection. Overall, the contradiction between the natural resources-forest ecology-social economic system in Gansu Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is more prominent.

[0156] 5.2 Analysis of influencing factors

[0157] Although the influencing factors vary from province to province, they are similar in adjacent basins. In the upper reaches of Qinghai and Sichuan provinces, the main barrier factors are NV, ED, EP and RFF. Except for the total per capita water resources, the other barrier factors are similar, especially the proportion of EP and NFF. In the middle and upper reaches of Gansu, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the main barrier factors are TW, EP, NV and ED. Compared with other provinces, their economic development is relatively backward. Gansu Province has a relatively harsh natural environment, poor land, scarce water resources and arid climate. These factors restrict the economic development and market competitiveness of Gansu Province. Similarly, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region has poor geographical conditions. It is located in a remote area in western China, with poor climatic conditions, and its economic development is backward due to various reasons. In the middle and lower reaches of Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces, the main barrier factors are TW, NN, ED and AA. The two provinces are geographically close and both belong to the Loess Plateau, and their barrier factors are very similar. At the same time, these provinces are the areas with the most serious soil erosion in my country, resulting in the total per capita water resources being the main factor restricting coordinated development. Through in-depth analysis, we found that economic density is a common obstacle factor in the middle and upper reaches. This shows that the level of economic development is the main reason restricting the coordinated development of these regions. Shandong and Henan provinces are located in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin, and the main obstacles are TW, NN, EP and AA. The per capita water resource obstacle level in the Yellow River Basin is the highest, at 18.76% and 18.71% respectively. These two provinces have a large demand for agricultural and domestic water. For example, the average annual water consumption in Shandong Province is 2.168×10 11 m 3 , of which agricultural water consumption is 1.339×10 11 m 3 , accounting for about 60% of the total water consumption. At the same time, they have a large population and the existing water resources are difficult to meet the regional production needs. Henan Province is seriously short of water resources, and the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources is uneven. The total amount of water resources is less than 1.5% of the national average, and the per capita total amount of water resources is less than 1 / 5 of the national average.

[0158] Through the above analysis, we found that the obstacle factors of each province are concentrated in the social, economic system and natural resource system, while the proportion of forest ecosystem is relatively small, indicating that the protection of forest ecosystem in the Yellow River Basin has been successful. Especially in areas rich in natural resources, the level of economic development has become the main factor restricting the coordinated development of these areas. It also confirms the phenomenon of "resource curse". For example, economic density is the main obstacle to the coordinated development of the middle and upper reaches of Yunnan Province. In areas with high economic development levels, the development and utilization of natural resources is the main obstacle to the coordinated development of the region. For example, per capita total water resources, land area and unit total energy are the main obstacles to coordination.

[0159] 5.3 Model of coordinated development

[0160] According to the results of the subsystems and the main influencing factors of CCD (Table 7), the following four models are proposed to promote the CCD of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system in the Yellow River Basin.

[0161] Table 7 Coordinated development model in the Yellow River Basin

[0162]

[0163]

[0164] Model 1: Ecological protection and industrial development. This development model is suitable for areas with important ecological positions and limited industrial development, such as Qinghai and Sichuan provinces in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin. Qinghai Province, in particular, is an important national ecological security barrier with a special and important ecological position and a major and arduous ecological responsibility. It shoulders the important tasks of comprehensively consolidating the foundation of national ecological security, continuously improving the quality of the ecological environment, and promoting high-quality development. Qinghai Province should vigorously promote the greening of national projects and mandatory afforestation, restore vegetation in key basins and key areas, and steadily expand vegetation coverage. Qinghai Province should also, based on actual conditions, deeply tap into resource endowments and vigorously develop green recycling industries.

[0165] Model II - Resource development and industrial development. This development model emphasizes the full and rational use of abundant natural resources and the development of ecological industries under the premise of ecological protection. It is mainly applicable to the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin, which are rich in natural resources and economically backward, such as Gansu, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. These regions should get rid of resource dependence and make rational use of natural resources instead of over-relying on natural resources. For example, Gansu Province can promote the development of ecotourism by relying on its advantages such as rich original ecology, cultural landscapes and exotic natural landscapes. The government should create landscape garden features, summer leisure and resort cities and ecotourism products in Gansu Province, and at the same time improve the infrastructure construction that is conducive to ecological environment protection and ecotourism development, and stimulate economic growth through the development of ecotourism.

[0166] Model III—Ecological restoration and industrial transformation. This development model is mainly applicable to the middle and lower reaches of Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces. The obstacle factors of these two provinces are the total per capita water resources, the proportion of national nature reserves, the economic density and the administrative area. According to the obstacle factors and development of the two provinces, the coordinated development of the system is promoted through ecological restoration and industrial transformation. In particular, the coupling coordination degree of the Shanxi system is on the verge of imbalance. We must take some measures to promote the coordinated development of the system. For a long time, the rapid development of the coal industry has not only affected the ecological environment, but also led to the imbalance of Shanxi's economic structure. Industrial transformation is an important way for the economic development of energy provinces and an inevitable measure for ecological restoration. Therefore, these areas can achieve green development by establishing nature reserves, strengthening ecological restoration, and promoting industrial transformation. Shanxi Province should build forest parks, improve infrastructure, and vigorously develop ecological industries such as forest tourism and forest health. In this way, on the one hand, the ecological restoration of coal mining areas can be achieved, and on the other hand, the economic development of ecological industries can be driven.

[0167] Model IV - Ecological protection and resource utilization. This development model is mainly applicable to regions with a relatively high level of economic development, such as Shandong and Henan. The economic development level in these regions is relatively high, and protecting the ecological environment and rationally utilizing natural resources are the main tasks of these regions. Through the analysis of the coupling and coordination barriers of the natural resource protection systems in Henan and Shandong provinces, it is found that the natural resource system is also an important factor restricting the coordinated development of the two provinces. Therefore, it is necessary to increase investment in ecological protection funds and technology, expand the area of ​​national nature reserves, and provide a good environmental foundation for regional economic development. At the same time, under the premise of strictly protecting the ecological environment, comprehensively improve resource utilization efficiency and accelerate the promotion of green and low-carbon development. Henan Province can start from the two aspects of "opening up" (developing alternative resources, strengthening resource exploration, etc.) and "saving" (improving utilization, reducing waste, recycling resources, etc.), rationally develop and utilize resources, correctly handle the relationship between people and land, develop advantageous industries and characteristic industries, and promote the sustainable use of resources.

[0168] 5.4 Limitations

[0169] This study has some limitations, which need further research and improvement. First, due to the difficulty of data collection, this paper analyzed the situation and obstacles of the coupling coordination of natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic systems in nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin in 2018, but did not analyze the spatiotemporal evolution trend of coupling coordination. Further research should explore the coupling coordination of natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic systems in the Yellow River Basin and deeply analyze the influencing factors that restrict coordinated development and future development trends, so as to provide more targeted suggestions for the coordinated development of provinces in the Yellow River Basin. Secondly, this paper only studied the scale of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin. In the future, micro-evaluation should be carried out, and internal balance analysis of cities and counties should be carried out to provide comprehensive support for improving the coordinated development of natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic systems in the Yellow River Basin.

[0170] 6 Conclusion

[0171] This paper takes nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin as the research area, constructs a logical framework between the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system, and measures the coupling and coordination relationship between the systems. Then, we identify the influencing factors of ODM. Based on the above research, this paper draws the following conclusions. First, in the forest ecosystem, Shandong Province has the highest score and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region has the highest score. In the natural resource system, Qinghai Province has the highest score and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region has the lowest score. In the socio-economic system, Shandong has the highest score, followed by Henan, and Gansu Province has the lowest score. Secondly, the interaction and influence of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system in the Yellow River Basin are strong, and CCD is in a state of disorder on the edge of coordination towards the middle, and there is still a long way to go with quality coordination. The spatial distribution of CD and CCD is low in the middle and high in the whole. Third, the socio-economic system is the main influencing factor restricting the coordinated development of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system, among which the total per capita water resources, energy production per unit area, the area of ​​national nature reserves and economic density are the main influencing factors.

[0172] In order to achieve the coordinated development of natural resources, forest ecology and social economy in the Yellow River Basin, this paper puts forward the following suggestions. First, according to its actual situation, give full play to the advantages of natural resources such as forests, water, grasslands and land, and explore development models that meet local conditions. Take ecological protection as the premise, consolidate its development characteristics and cultivate its economic growth points. Second, pay attention to the impact of human activities on forest ecological functions and natural resources, improve ecological carrying capacity, and coordinate resource protection and economic development. Third, optimize water resource allocation and implement water resource protection and utilization strategies in different regions. The upstream areas can prevent and control pollution in water source protection areas and improve forest water-saving capabilities. Improve vegetation coverage in the middle reaches and improve soil and water conservation capabilities. Downstream areas should develop energy-saving agriculture and industry, raise public awareness of water conservation, and improve water resource utilization.

[0173] The above describes the basic principles and main features of the present invention and the advantages of the present invention. It is obvious to those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the details of the above exemplary embodiments, and the present invention can be implemented in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or basic characteristics of the present invention. Therefore, no matter from which point of view, the embodiments should be regarded as exemplary and non-restrictive. The scope of the present invention is defined by the appended claims rather than the above description, and it is intended that all changes falling within the meaning and scope of the equivalent elements of the claims are included in the present invention. Any figure mark in the claims should not be regarded as limiting the claim involved.

[0174] In addition, it should be understood that although the present specification is described according to implementation modes, not every implementation mode contains only one independent technical solution. This description of the specification is only for the sake of clarity. Those skilled in the art should regard the specification as a whole. The technical solutions in each embodiment may also be appropriately combined to form other implementation modes that can be understood by those skilled in the art.

Claims

1. A management model that is coupled and coordinated between natural resources, forest ecology and social economy, characterized by: include (1) Selection of study area: The Yellow River Basin was selected as the study area based on economic development, forest resources, and population conditions; (2) Entropy evaluation method (EEM) constructs an evaluation index system of natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system: including the establishment of forest ecological function subsystem, natural resource subsystem, and socio-economic subsystem; (3) The coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) and the obstacle diagnosis model (ODM) were used to measure the coupling coordination relationship and influencing factors of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system.

2. The management mode according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step (2) The secondary indicators of the forest ecological function subsystem include forest biomass (FB), naturalness (FN), community structure (FC), tree species structure (TS), vegetation coverage (VC), canopy density (CD), average tree height (AT), and thickness of dead branches and fallen leaves (TL).

3. The management mode according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step (2) Natural resource subsystem: The natural resources of the Yellow River Basin provinces are divided into two categories: natural resource conditions and natural resource types. The secondary indicators of natural resource conditions include administrative area (AA), climate comfort (CC), terrain relief (RA), grassland coverage (GC), wetland coverage (CRW), and desertified land coverage (CRD); the secondary indicators of natural resource types include per capita water resources (TW) and energy production per unit area (EP).

4. The management mode according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step (2) Establishment of the socio-economic subsystem: Select 7 indicators in the economic development dimension, 7 indicators in the social progress dimension, and 4 indicators in the ecological policy dimension; The seven indicators of economic development dimension include economic density (ED), proportion of primary industry added value (PI), proportion of secondary industry added value (SI), per capita disposable income (DI), proportion of cultivated land area (CL), conversion of organic fertilizer per unit area (AF), and use of agricultural plastic film (PF); The seven indicators of social progress dimension include urbanization rate (UR), population density (PD), natural population growth rate (PG), road network density (RN), green coverage rate of built-up areas (GC), number of tourists received per unit area (NV), number of legal entities in culture, sports and entertainment industries per unit area (NL); The four indicators of the ecological policy dimension include the proportion of fiscal expenditure on environmental protection (FE), the proportion of national nature reserves (NN), the amount of forestry investment per unit area of ​​natural forest resource protection projects (NFP), and the amount of forestry investment per unit area of ​​returning farmland to forest projects (RFF).

5. The management mode according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step (2) Entropy evaluation method: EEM is used to measure the disorder of the system. Now, it is usually used to determine the weight of the indicator by calculating the information entropy of each indicator layer. The main steps are as follows: (1) The original data of the indicator layer is standardized to eliminate the influence of different dimensions; the standard normalization method is adopted: For positive indicators: For negative indicators: X' ij Where is the standardized value of the jth indicator in the i-th province, X ij Represents the original value, maxX j x j Respectively represent the maximum and minimum values ​​of the j-th index; (2) Calculate the information entropy of the jth indicator; Y ij where is the ratio of the standardized value of the province i of the jth indicator to the standardized value of the whole basin, e j Represents the information entropy of each system indicator j: (3) Calculate the weight of the jth indicator in the system; w j represents the weight of the above indicators based on information entropy, and n represents the total number of indicators in the system; Since the indicators are standardized, Y ij It contains the value 0, so the exponential conversion method is used when calculating the information entropy, adding 0.00001 to the value 0.

6. The management mode according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step (3) Coupling Coordination Degree Model CCDM: The CCDM model can be used to analyze the impact phenomena and interaction degree between two or more systems; when the system is disconnected and lacks coordination, the coupling coordination degree will decrease, thus affecting the sustainable development of the region. The calculation steps are as follows: (1) Calculate the total score The comprehensive score can reflect the comprehensive development level of each system and the whole. The calculation formula is as follows: T i =αS Fi +βS Si +γS Ni (6) Among them, α, β and γ represent the weights of comprehensive evaluation indicators of forest ecology, social economy and natural resource system respectively; (2) Calculate the coupling degree (CD) C i where represents the total CD of the natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system of the i-th province, and the CD value ranges from 0 to 1; when C is 1, it means that the interaction between systems is the greatest, tending to a new and more advanced functional body; when C is 0, it means that there is no interaction and mutual influence between systems, and they are at an irrelevant level; (3) Calculation of coupling coordination degree (CCD) CD is of great significance for distinguishing the intensity of coupling effects of natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system and the development sequence of the three systems; however, it is difficult to reflect the overall function or development level of the system, so it is necessary to construct a CCD model; Wherein, D represents CCD. When D is 0, it indicates that the whole system is in an absolutely non-misaligned state.

7. The management mode according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step (3) Obstacle Diagnosis Model (ODM): ODM is a mathematical model that can find factors that affect the sustainable development of the system. ODM analyzes the main factors that affect the overall goal based on the degree of obstacles of the diagnostic evaluation factors. The calculation steps are as follows: (1) Factor contribution rate The factor contribution rate represents the contribution rate of a single indicator to the coupling coordination degree of the natural resources-forest ecology-social economy system; the calculation formula is as follows: U j =R j ×W j (9) Among them U j Indicates the contribution rate of this indicator to the overall indicator R j represents the weight of the criterion layer to which the jth indicator belongs, and W j represents the weight of the j-th indicator; (2) Index deviation The indicator deviation degree refers to the degree of deviation between each individual indicator and the whole, and the calculation formula is as follows: V j =1-D ij (10) Where V j Indicates the degree of deviation of the indicator, and D ij Represents the standardized value of a single indicator; (3) Degree of Obstacle Obstacle degree refers to the influence of each single indicator and each system on the coupling and coordination of natural resources-forest ecology-social economy system; the calculation formula is as follows: Where B k Indicates the degree of obstacle of each indicator, M j It represents the degree of obstacle of each indicator in the criterion layer to the coupling and coordination of natural resources-forest ecology-socio-economic system, and m represents the number of indicators contained in the criterion layer.

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