Dynamic quantitative evaluation method for dammed lake inundation and outburst loss

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of barrier lake risk assessment, in particular to a barrier lake inundation and outburst loss dynamic quantitative assessment method, which comprises the following steps: S1, establishing a barrier lake inundation and outburst loss index set # imgabs0 #, 11-lm being the first to mth elements of the barrier lake inundation and outburst loss index set, and m being the second to mth elements of the barrier lake inundation and outburst loss index set; 11-lm at least comprises a risk population volume index, an influence area scale index, an influence area social development degree index and an ecological environment influence degree index; s2, establishing grading functions f1, f2,... fm corresponding to the indexes in the step S1; and S3, according to f1, f2,... fm, establishing a dynamic quantitative evaluation function F of the inundation and outburst loss of the barrier lake, and according to the function F, carrying out risk evaluation on the barrier lake. According to the method, the loss of the barrier lake is quantitatively and rapidly calculated, and technical support can be provided for risk grade evaluation and rapid rescue of the barrier lake.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of risk assessment of dammed lakes, and in particular to a dynamic quantitative assessment method for flooding and bursting losses of dammed lakes. Background Art

[0002] A barrier lake is formed by the blockage of river channels by "sudden" foreign materials such as landslides and debris flows. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the mountainous canyons in the southwest of my country are high-incidence areas for barrier lakes. Due to the sudden nature of barrier lakes, on the one hand, the rapid accumulation of water in barrier lakes will cause large-scale flooding losses in the upstream areas of the barrier lakes. On the other hand, once the barrier lakes overflow and burst, the outburst floods will cause serious damage to the downstream population and infrastructure. Since barrier lake outburst floods are extremely rare floods, the disaster chain is long and the losses are wide-ranging, how to quickly and quantitatively evaluate the losses of barrier lake inundation and outburst floods in a short window period has always been a difficult problem in the field of barrier lake risk management, and it is also the key to avoiding blind rescue operations, and it is related to the success or failure of rescue operations.

[0003] The Chinese invention patent with the authorization announcement number CN110851768B discloses a multi-level fuzzy evaluation method for barrier lakes. This method introduces fuzzy group decision-making methods and multi-level decision-making theory, and establishes a mathematical model for the feasibility of barrier dam development based on three criteria: engineering safety risk, resource feasibility, and ecological and environmental benefits. The feasibility of barrier dam development is evaluated, and reference and guidance are provided for the permanent management of barrier lakes. However, this method is only used for the evaluation of the development and management of barrier dams. As for the evaluation of the flood losses caused by the outburst of barrier lakes, it is currently generally restricted by many objective factors such as the long chain of barrier lake disasters, the wide range of impact, the population size, regional level, material type, and ecological environment in the flooded area. Especially in the extremely short emergency window period, it is extremely difficult to conduct an assessment of the flooding and outburst losses of barrier lakes. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to address the defects of the prior art and provide a dynamic quantitative assessment method for the inundation and burst losses of a landslide lake, which realizes the quantitative and rapid calculation of the losses of the landslide lake and provides technical support for the risk level assessment of the landslide lake and rapid rescue.

[0005] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides a dynamic quantitative assessment method for flooding and bursting losses of a barrier lake, comprising:

[0006] S1. Establish a set of indicators for flooding and breach losses of barrier lakes L =[ l 1 , l 2 , l 3 ,,,,,,,, l m ] , where l1~l m are the 1st to mth elements of the barrier lake flooding and burst loss indicator set, l1~l mThe indicators shall at least include the size of the population at risk, the scale of the affected area, the degree of social development in the affected area, and the degree of impact on the ecological environment;

[0007] S2, establish the grading functions f1, f2, ... f corresponding to each indicator in step S1 m ;

[0008] S3, according to f1, f2, ... f m A dynamic quantitative assessment function F for the inundation and bursting losses of barrier lakes is established, and risk assessment of barrier lakes is carried out based on function F.

[0009] Further, step S2 includes:

[0010] S21. Establish the risk population volume classification function f1, the expression of f1 is:

[0011] ,

[0012] Where M is the number of people at risk, in person.

[0013] Furthermore, step S21 includes: modeling the barrier lake and its surrounding terrain, calculating the inundation range upstream and downstream of the barrier lake, that is, the inundation range upstream of the barrier lake and the damage range of the downstream outburst flood, and using methods such as communication heat maps to obtain the number of people at risk within the inundation range upstream and downstream of the barrier lake, thereby determining f1.

[0014] Further, step S2 includes:

[0015] S22. Establish the impact area scale classification function f2, the expression of f2 is:

[0016] .

[0017] Furthermore, step S22 includes: obtaining an administrative map of the area where the barrier lake is located, and coupling it with the upstream and downstream flooding ranges of the barrier lake obtained in step S21 to determine the administrative area level of the area affected by the barrier lake outburst, thereby determining f2.

[0018] Further, step S2 includes:

[0019] S23. Establish a grading function f3 that affects the degree of regional social development. The expression of f3 is:

[0020] ,

[0021] Among them, g1 is the infrastructure importance quantification function, and the expression of g1 is:

[0022] ,

[0023] in,

[0024] G1=[national important transportation, national power transmission, national oil and gas trunk lines, national factories and mines, national infrastructure, large-scale water conservancy and hydropower projects, cascade water conservancy and hydropower projects, large-scale chemical plants, large-scale pesticide plants, highly toxic chemical plants, large-scale heavy metal plants],

[0025] G2=[provincial important transportation, provincial power transmission, provincial oil and gas trunk lines, provincial factories and mines, medium-sized water conservancy and hydropower projects, large-scale chemical plants, large-scale pesticide plants, large-scale heavy metal factories and mines],

[0026] G3=[important municipal transportation, municipal power transmission, municipal oil and gas trunk lines, municipal factories and mines, general chemical plants, general pesticide plants],

[0027] G4=[General important facilities and below].

[0028] Furthermore, step S23 includes: obtaining an infrastructure layout map of the area where the upstream and downstream flooding ranges of the barrier lake are located, and coupling it with the upstream flooding range of the barrier lake and the downstream flood damage and flooding range obtained in step S21 to determine g1, thereby determining f3.

[0029] Further, step S2 includes:

[0030] S24. Establish the ecological environment impact grading function f4, the expression of f4 is:

[0031] ,

[0032] Among them, g2 is the ecological environment scale quantification function, and the expression of g2 is:

[0033] ,

[0034] in,

[0035] N1=[world-class cultural relics, world-class rare animals and plants, urban water sources, major geological disasters that may cause river blocking hazards, geological disasters that affect more than 1,000 people],

[0036] N2=[national cultural relics, national rare animals and plants, county water sources, geological disasters that may narrow the river channel, and geological disasters that affect 300 to 1,000 people],

[0037] N3=[provincial and municipal cultural relics, provincial and municipal rare animals and plants, township water sources, geological disasters affecting 100 to 300 people],

[0038] N4=[County-level cultural relics, rare animals and plants, rural water sources, and geological disasters causing impacts on a population of less than 100 people].

[0039] Further, step S24 includes: obtaining an ecological environment map of the area where the barrier lake is located, and coupling it with the upstream and downstream flooding ranges of the barrier lake obtained in step S21 to determine g2, thereby determining f4.

[0040] Furthermore, in step S3, the expression of the dynamic quantitative evaluation function F of the flooding and bursting loss of the barrier lake is:

[0041] .

[0042] The beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0043] (1) The present invention realizes the dynamic quantitative evaluation of the flooding and bursting losses of the barrier lake, moving from qualitative to quantitative, from single factor evaluation to multi-factor comprehensive dynamic evaluation, which is scientific and objective.

[0044] (2) The current classification of risk levels for landslide-dammed lakes does not cover all risk factors, which can easily lead to an imbalance in the classification of risk levels for landslide-dammed lakes, thereby causing inappropriate emergency rescue measures, that is, too heavy or too light emergency rescue measures. The present invention provides theoretical support for the classification of risk levels for landslide-dammed lakes, reduces the blindness of emergency rescue measures, avoids problems such as excessive or insufficient rescue, and improves the efficiency of rescue.

[0045] (3) The present invention has good applicability and can dynamically adjust the indicator set L of the flooding and bursting loss of the barrier lake in combination with the actual situation of the barrier lake, so as to realize the dynamic quantitative evaluation of the flooding and bursting loss of any barrier lake. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0046] Figure 1 The figure is a flow chart of the method of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0047] In order to make the technical problems, technical solutions and beneficial effects to be solved by the present application more clearly understood, the present application is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present application and are not used to limit the present application.

[0048] like Figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a dynamic quantitative assessment method for flooding and breach losses of a barrier lake, including:

[0049] S1. Establish a set of indicators for flooding and breach losses of barrier lakes L =[ l 1 , l 2 , l 3 ,,,,,,,, l m ] , where l1~l m are the 1st to mth elements of the barrier lake flooding and burst loss indicator set, l1~l mAt least include the risk population size index, the impact area scale index, the impact area social development level index, and the ecological environment impact level index; l1~l m It is determined according to the actual situation of the barrier lake. In this embodiment, m=4, l1 is the risk population volume index, l2 is the impact area scale index, l3 is the impact area social development degree index, and l4 is the ecological environment impact degree index;

[0050] S2, establishing the grading functions f1, f2, f3, f4 corresponding to the indicators in step S1; step S2 specifically includes:

[0051] S21. Establish the risk population volume classification function f1, the expression of f1 is:

[0052] ,

[0053] Where M is the number of people at risk, in person.

[0054] The barrier lake and its surrounding terrain are modeled, and the inundation range upstream and downstream of the barrier lake is calculated, that is, the inundation range upstream of the barrier lake and the damage range of the downstream outburst flood. The number of people at risk within the inundation range upstream and downstream of the barrier lake is obtained using methods such as communication heat maps, thereby determining f1.

[0055] S22. Establish the impact area scale classification function f2, the expression of f2 is:

[0056] .

[0057] Obtain the administrative map of the area where the barrier lake is located, and couple it with the upstream and downstream flooding range of the barrier lake obtained in step S21 to determine the administrative region level of the area affected by the barrier lake burst. If the upstream and downstream flooding range of the barrier lake involves multiple administrative regions, f2 is determined by the highest administrative region level among the multiple administrative regions.

[0058] S23. Establish a grading function f3 that affects the degree of regional social development. The expression of f3 is:

[0059] ,

[0060] Among them, g1 is the infrastructure importance quantification function, and the expression of g1 is:

[0061] ,

[0062] in,

[0063] G1=[national important transportation, national power transmission, national oil and gas trunk lines, national factories and mines, national infrastructure, large-scale water conservancy and hydropower projects, cascade water conservancy and hydropower projects, large-scale chemical plants, large-scale pesticide plants, highly toxic chemical plants, large-scale heavy metal plants],

[0064] G2=[provincial important transportation, provincial power transmission, provincial oil and gas trunk lines, provincial factories and mines, medium-sized water conservancy and hydropower projects, large-scale chemical plants, large-scale pesticide plants, large-scale heavy metal factories and mines],

[0065] G3=[important municipal transportation, municipal power transmission, municipal oil and gas trunk lines, municipal factories and mines, general chemical plants, general pesticide plants],

[0066] G4=[General important facilities],

[0067] The above-mentioned national and large-scale are determined according to the existing national unified standards. For example, the reservoir capacity is not less than 100 million m 3 Water conservancy and hydropower projects of this magnitude are large-scale water conservancy and hydropower projects.

[0068] An infrastructure layout diagram (such as an infrastructure map) of the area where the barrier lake is located is obtained, and coupled with the upstream and downstream flooding ranges of the barrier lake obtained in step S21 to determine g1, thereby determining f3.

[0069] S24. Establish the ecological environment impact grading function f4, the expression of f4 is:

[0070] ,

[0071] Among them, g2 is the ecological environment scale quantification function, and the expression of g2 is:

[0072] ,

[0073] in,

[0074] N1=[world-class cultural relics, world-class rare animals and plants, urban water sources, major geological disasters that may cause river blocking hazards, geological disasters that affect more than 1,000 people],

[0075] N2=[national cultural relics, national rare animals and plants, county water sources, geological disasters that may narrow the river channel, and geological disasters that affect 300 to 1,000 people],

[0076] N3=[provincial and municipal cultural relics, provincial and municipal rare animals and plants, township water sources, geological disasters affecting 100 to 300 people],

[0077] N4=[County-level cultural relics, rare animals and plants, rural water sources, and geological disasters causing impacts on a population of less than 100 people].

[0078] It should be noted that the geological disasters caused by N1 affecting a population of more than 1,000 people means that the number of people directly affected by the geological disasters caused by the flooding and bursting of the barrier lake is 1,000.

[0079] Obtain an ecological environment map (such as an ecological environment map) of the area where the barrier lake is located, and couple it with the upstream and downstream flooding ranges of the barrier lake obtained in step S21 to determine g2, thereby determining f4. For example, if the upstream and downstream flooding ranges of the barrier lake intersect with the protection range of world-class cultural relics, it means that the breach of the barrier lake has an impact on the world-class cultural relics, then g2=1, f4=extremely serious.

[0080] S3, according to f1, f2, ... f m A dynamic quantitative evaluation function F for the flooding and bursting losses of the barrier lake is established, and the risk assessment of the barrier lake is carried out according to the function F. The expression of the dynamic quantitative evaluation function F for the flooding and bursting losses of the barrier lake is:

[0081] .

[0082] The levels of flooding and breach losses of the barrier lake under multi-factor conditions are calculated using the return values ​​of f1, f2, f3 and f4 obtained in step S2.

[0083] When at least one of the return values ​​of f1, f2, f3, and f4 is extremely serious, the return value of the evaluation function F is extremely serious, and the level of loss caused by the landslide lake flooding and burst is evaluated as extremely serious.

[0084] When at least one of the return values ​​of f1, f2, f3, and f4 is severe and none of them is extremely severe, the return value of the evaluation function F is severe, and the level of loss from inundation and breach of the barrier lake is assessed to be severe.

[0085] When at least one of the return values ​​of f1, f2, f3, and f4 is relatively serious and none of them is extremely serious or serious, the return value of the evaluation function F is serious, and the level of loss from the landslide lake inundation and burst is evaluated as relatively serious.

[0086] When the returned values ​​of f1, f2, f3 and f4 are not extremely serious, serious or relatively serious, the level of loss caused by the landslide lake flooding and burst is assessed as general.

[0087] Through the above steps, the implementation of the dynamic quantitative evaluation method for the flooding and bursting losses of a barrier lake of the present invention is completed.

[0088] The embodiments described above are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, rather than to limit them. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, a person skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments may still be modified, or some of the technical features may be replaced by equivalents. Such modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, and should all be included in the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A dynamic quantitative assessment method for flooding and bursting losses of barrier lakes, characterized in that: include: S1. Establish a set of indicators for flooding and breach losses of barrier lakes , where l1~l m are the 1st to mth elements of the barrier lake flooding and burst loss indicator set, l1~l m The indicators shall at least include the size of the population at risk, the scale of the affected area, the degree of social development in the affected area, and the degree of impact on the ecological environment; S2, establish the grading functions f1, f2, ... f corresponding to each indicator in step S1 m ; S3, according to f1, f2, ... f m A dynamic quantitative assessment function F for the inundation and bursting losses of barrier lakes is established, and risk assessment of barrier lakes is carried out based on function F.

2. The dynamic quantitative assessment method for flooding and breach losses of barrier lake according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Step S2 includes: S21. Establish the risk population volume classification function f1, the expression of f1 is: ， Where M is the number of people at risk, in person.

3. The dynamic quantitative assessment method for flooding and bursting losses of barrier lake according to claim 2 is characterized in that: Step S21 includes: modeling the barrier lake and its surrounding terrain, calculating the upstream and downstream flooding ranges of the barrier lake, i.e., the upstream flooding range of the barrier lake and the downstream flood damage range, and using the communication heat map method to obtain the number of risk population within the upstream and downstream flooding ranges of the barrier lake, thereby determining f1.

4. The dynamic quantitative assessment method for flooding and bursting losses of barrier lake according to claim 3 is characterized in that: Step S2 includes: S22. Establish the impact area scale classification function f2, the expression of f2 is: 。 5. The dynamic quantitative assessment method for flooding and bursting losses of barrier lake according to claim 4 is characterized in that: Step S22 includes: obtaining an administrative map of the area where the barrier lake is located, and coupling it with the upstream and downstream flooding ranges of the barrier lake obtained in step S21 to determine the administrative area level of the area affected by the barrier lake outburst, thereby determining f2.

6. The dynamic quantitative assessment method for flooding and bursting losses of barrier lake according to claim 3 is characterized in that: Step S2 includes: S23. Establish a grading function f3 that affects the degree of regional social development. The expression of f3 is: ， Among them, g1 is the infrastructure importance quantification function, and the expression of g1 is: ， in, G1=[national important transportation, national power transmission, national oil and gas trunk lines, national factories and mines, national infrastructure, large-scale water conservancy and hydropower projects, cascade water conservancy and hydropower projects, large-scale chemical plants, large-scale pesticide plants, highly toxic chemical plants, large-scale heavy metal plants], G2=[provincial important transportation, provincial power transmission, provincial oil and gas trunk lines, provincial factories and mines, medium-sized water conservancy and hydropower projects, large-scale chemical plants, large-scale pesticide plants, large-scale heavy metal factories and mines], G3=[important municipal transportation, municipal power transmission, municipal oil and gas trunk lines, municipal factories and mines, general chemical plants, general pesticide plants], G4=[General important facilities and below].

7. The dynamic quantitative assessment method for flooding and bursting losses of barrier lake according to claim 6 is characterized in that: Step S23 includes: obtaining an infrastructure layout map of the area where the upstream and downstream flooding ranges of the barrier lake are located, and coupling it with the upstream flooding range of the barrier lake and the downstream flood damage and flooding range obtained in step S21 to determine g1, thereby determining f3.

8. The dynamic quantitative assessment method for flooding and bursting losses of barrier lake according to claim 3 is characterized in that: Step S2 includes: S24. Establish the ecological environment impact grading function f4, the expression of f4 is: ， Among them, g2 is the ecological environment scale quantification function, and the expression of g2 is: ， in, N1=[world-class cultural relics, world-class rare animals and plants, urban water sources, major geological disasters that may cause river blocking hazards, geological disasters that affect more than 1,000 people], N2=[national cultural relics, national rare animals and plants, county water sources, geological disasters that may narrow the river channel, and geological disasters that affect 300 to 1,000 people], N3=[provincial and municipal cultural relics, provincial and municipal rare animals and plants, township water sources, geological disasters affecting 100 to 300 people], N4=[County-level cultural relics, rare animals and plants, rural water sources, and geological disasters causing impacts on a population of less than 100 people].

9. The dynamic quantitative assessment method for flooding and breach losses of barrier lake according to claim 8 is characterized in that: Step S24 includes: obtaining an ecological environment map of the area where the barrier lake is located, and coupling it with the upstream and downstream flooding ranges of the barrier lake obtained in step S21 to determine g2, thereby determining f4.

10. The dynamic quantitative assessment method for flooding and breach losses of barrier lake according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step S3, the expression of the dynamic quantitative evaluation function F of the flooding and bursting loss of the barrier lake is: 。

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