Method for realizing water-carbon-economic relation modeling and policy evaluation based on CGE model extension water-carbon related module

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for realizing water-carbon-economic relationship modeling and policy evaluation based on a CGE model expansion water-carbon related module, and relates to the technical field of water resource management, system modeling and simulation and environmental policy analysis. Comprising the steps of obtaining economic data, industry water consumption data, energy consumption data and carbon emission data, generating a basic data set, constructing a water module and an energy module, constructing a water-carbon accounting module and a water-carbon policy module, combining with a CGE model to generate an improved CGE model, verifying to obtain the verified CGE model, and establishing a reference scene and a regulation and control policy scene. The verified CGE model is used for simulating the water and carbon regulation policy, and the regional and industrial water consumption, carbon emission and economic quantity influences under the action of the regulation policy are obtained. According to the method, the effect after the regulation policy is implemented can be predicted in advance, a basis for multi-scene simulation and comparative analysis is provided for a decision maker, and technical support is provided for making and evaluating a water-saving and carbon-reducing policy.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical fields of water resource management, system modeling and simulation, and environmental policy analysis, and in particular to a method for implementing water-carbon-economy relationship modeling and policy evaluation based on CGE model expansion of water-carbon related modules. Background Art

[0002] Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is an economic modeling tool used to analyze the interaction and equilibrium state between different markets within the economic system, especially the dynamic adjustment process after being affected by external shocks or policy changes. Based on Walras's general equilibrium theory, the CGE model uses a large set of equations to describe the interconnections between various sectors and factors in the economic system, reflect the decision-making behavior of producers, consumers and other economic entities, and simulate the price and quantity adjustment process within the economic system. The mechanism of the model includes producers pursuing profit maximization under certain cost constraints and technology levels, consumers choosing a combination of goods and services under budget constraints to maximize utility, and international actors pursuing export cost minimization and import revenue maximization under certain profit targets.

[0003] In terms of water-carbon relationship modeling, compared with research methods such as life cycle analysis and material flow analysis, the CGE model can characterize the input-output relationship between industries and reveal the circulation process of water and energy in the national economy. Compared with the input-output method, the CGE model can characterize the equilibrium relationship in the economic system, quantify the impact of changes in technological progress, prices and quantities on industry output and intermediate inputs under regulatory policies, and then solve the changes in economic structure, demand scale, and water and energy commodity inputs, which is suitable for modeling water-carbon-economy relationships. Although the existing CGE model is based on the input-output table of water, energy industries and commodities, it lacks the mechanism of action between water-carbon-economy and needs to be further expanded and improved.

[0004] Therefore, it is an urgent problem for technicians in this field to propose a method based on CGE model to expand water-carbon related modules to realize water-carbon-economy relationship modeling and policy evaluation, so as to solve the problem that the existing technology lacks the interaction mechanism between water-carbon-economy. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of this, the present invention provides a method for realizing water-carbon-economy relationship modeling and policy evaluation based on the CGE model by expanding the water-carbon related modules, which can achieve the effects of improving the water-carbon economy linkage mechanism, obtaining accurate simulation data, and saving manpower.

[0006] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solution:

[0007] A method for modeling water-carbon-economy relationships and policy evaluation based on CGE model expansion of water-carbon related modules, comprising the following steps:

[0008] S1. Obtain economic data, industry water use data, energy consumption data and carbon emission data to generate basic data sets;

[0009] S2. Use the basic data set to construct the water module and energy module, the water-carbon accounting module and the water-carbon policy module, combine the CGE model, the water module and the energy module, the water-carbon accounting module and the water-carbon policy module to generate an improved CGE model, verify the improved CGE model, and obtain a verified CGE model.

[0010] S3. Establish a baseline scenario and a regulatory policy scenario, use the verified CGE model to simulate the water and carbon regulatory policy, and obtain the water consumption, carbon emissions and economic impact of the regulatory policy by region and industry;

[0011] In the above method, optionally, the demand for water commodity in the water module S2 is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function between the commodities “conventional water” and “unconventional water”;

[0012] In the energy module, the demand for energy commodities is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of the two types of energy commodities: "fossil energy" and "electric energy".

[0013] The above method is optional. The demand for "conventional water" is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of "surface water" and "groundwater" commodities; the demand for "fossil energy" is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of "coal" and "oil and gas" commodities; the demand for "oil and gas" is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of "petroleum" and "natural gas" commodities; the demand for "electric energy" is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of "coal-fired power", "hydropower" and "other power" commodities.

[0014] In the above method, optionally, the water-carbon accounting module in S2 is used to perform statistical accounting of changes in water consumption and carbon emissions;

[0015] The water-carbon policy module is used to set virtual tax rates to construct a constraint mechanism for total water use and total carbon emissions, and to simulate regulatory policies for total water and carbon constraints.

[0016] The above method is optional. The water consumption in the water-carbon accounting module includes: studying the calculation of the quantity variables of intermediate inputs of various regions and industries based on various water commodities in the model, and calculating the total water consumption according to the water commodity type, industry and region; the calculation of carbon emissions includes: based on the quantity variables of intermediate inputs of various energy commodities in the model for various regions and industries, combined with the carbon emission coefficients of various energy commodities, and calculating the total carbon emissions according to region, industry and energy.

[0017] In the above method, optionally, the water-carbon policy module includes: setting virtual tax rates for water use and carbon emissions to reflect the shadow prices of water and carbon after the implementation of total water use and carbon emissions control.

[0018] In the above method, optionally, the verification of the improved CGE model in S2 includes data consistency test, closed rule test, homogeneity test and robustness test.

[0019] Through the above technical solutions, it can be known that compared with the prior art, the present invention provides a method for modeling water-carbon-economy relationships and policy evaluation based on the CGE model to expand water-carbon related modules. On the basis of the CGE model framework, water modules and energy modules, water-carbon accounting and water-carbon policy modules are constructed, wherein the water module and energy module use constant substitution elasticity functions to characterize the impact of various regulatory policies on water and energy demand and industry output; the water-carbon accounting module realizes the statistical accounting of water consumption and carbon emissions changes by region and industry; the water-carbon policy module realizes the regulation policy simulation of water-carbon total amount constraints. It can accurately analyze the changes in water consumption, carbon emissions and economic quantities under the water-carbon economic regulation policy, which helps to provide a quantitative policy analysis method for water-carbon-economy regulation research. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0020] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on the provided drawings without paying creative work.

[0021] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method disclosed in the present invention for implementing water-carbon-economy relationship modeling and policy evaluation based on CGE model expansion of water-carbon related modules;

[0022] Figure 2 The improved CGE model diagram disclosed in the present invention;

[0023] Figure 3 This is a relative change diagram based on a set policy scenario disclosed in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0024] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0025] Reference Figure 1 and Figure 2 As shown, the present invention discloses a method for implementing water-carbon-economy relationship modeling and policy evaluation based on CGE model expansion of water-carbon related modules, comprising the following steps:

[0026] S1. Obtain economic data, industry water use data, energy consumption data and carbon emission data to generate basic data sets;

[0027] S2. Use the basic data set to construct a water module and an energy module, a water-carbon accounting module and a water-carbon policy module, combine the CGE model, the water module and the energy module, the water-carbon accounting module and the water-carbon policy module to generate an improved CGE model, verify the improved CGE model, and obtain a verified CGE model;

[0028] S3. Establish a baseline scenario and a regulatory policy scenario, use the verified CGE model to simulate the water-carbon regulatory policy, and obtain the water consumption, carbon emissions and economic impact by region and industry under the influence of the regulatory policy.

[0029] Furthermore, the demand for water commodities in the S2 water module is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function between the commodities “conventional water” and “unconventional water”;

[0030] In the energy module, the demand for energy commodities is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of the two types of energy commodities: "fossil energy" and "electric energy".

[0031] Furthermore, the demand for the commodity "conventional water" is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of the commodities "surface water" and "groundwater"; the demand for the commodity "fossil energy" is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of the commodities "coal" and "oil and gas"; the demand for the commodity "oil and gas" is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of the commodities "petroleum" and "natural gas"; the demand for the commodity "electric energy" is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of the commodities "coal-fired power", "hydropower" and "other power".

[0032] Specifically, the calculation formula for the constant substitution elasticity function of "conventional water" and "unconventional water" is as follows:

[0033]

[0034] PCOM wt,i,d *XCOM wt,i,d =PCWT i,d *XCWT i,d +PUWT i,d *XUWT i,d ;

[0035] Among them: XCOM wt,i,d is the quantity of intermediate input of water commodity in industry i in region d, PCOM wt,i,dis the intermediate input price of water commodity in industry i in region d, XCWT i,d and XUWT i,d are the intermediate input quantities of conventional water commodities and unconventional water commodities in industry i in region d, PCWT i,d and PUWT i,d are the intermediate input prices of conventional water and unconventional water in industry i in region d, δ cwt,i,d and δ uwt,i,d are the share parameters of conventional water products and unconventional water products in industry i in region d, A wt,i,d is the technical parameter of water commodity in industry i in region d, ρ wt,i is the substitution elasticity of water commodity in industry i.

[0036] Furthermore, the demand for the commodity "conventional water" is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function between the commodities "surface water" and "groundwater", and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0037]

[0038] PCWT i,d *XCWT i,d =PSWT i,d *XSWT i,d +PGWT i,d *XGWT i,d ,

[0039] Where: XCWT i,d is the quantity of conventional water commodity intermediate input in industry i in region d, PCWT i,d is the intermediate input price of conventional water commodity in industry i in region d, XSWT i,d and XGWT i,d are the intermediate input quantities of surface water and groundwater commodities in industry i in region d, PSWT i,d and PGWT i,d are the intermediate input prices of surface water and groundwater commodities in industry i in region d, δ swt,i,d and δ gwt,i,d are the share parameters of conventional water products and unconventional water products in industry i in region d, A cwt,i,d is the technical parameter of conventional water commodity in industry i in region d, ρ cwt,i is the substitution elasticity of conventional water goods in industry i.

[0040] The calculation formula for the constant substitution elasticity function of the two types of energy commodities, "fossil energy" and "electric energy", is as follows:

[0041]

[0042] PCOM engy,i,d *XCOMengy,i,d =PFOSS i,d *XFOSS i,d +PEL i,d *XEL i,d ,

[0043] Among them: XCOM engy,i,d is the quantity of intermediate inputs of energy commodities in industry i in region d, PCOM engy,i,d is the intermediate input price of energy commodities in industry i in region d, XFOSS i,d and XEL i,d are the intermediate input quantities of fossil energy commodities and electric energy commodities in industry i in region d, PFOSS i,d and PEL i,d are the intermediate input prices of fossil energy commodities and electric energy commodities in industry i in region d, δ foss,i,d and δ el,i,d are the share parameters of fossil energy commodities and electric energy commodities in industry i in region d, respectively, engy,i,d is the technical parameter of energy commodity in industry i in region d, ρ engy,i is the substitution elasticity of energy commodities in industry i.

[0044] Furthermore, the demand for “fossil energy” commodities is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of “coal” and “oil and gas” commodities, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0045]

[0046] PFOSS i,d *XFOSS i,d =PCOAL i,d *XCOAL i,d +POLGS i,d *XOLGS i,d ,

[0047] Where: XFOSS i,d is the intermediate input quantity of fossil energy commodities in industry i in region d, PFOSS i,d is the intermediate input price of fossil energy commodities in industry i in region d, XCOAL i,d and XOLGS i,d are the intermediate input quantities of coal and oil and gas commodities in industry i in region d, PCOAL i,d and POLGS i,d are the intermediate input prices of coal and oil and gas in industry i in region d, respectively, coal,i,d and δ olgs,i,d are the share parameters of coal and oil and gas commodities in industry i in region d, respectively. foss,i,dis the technical parameters of fossil energy products in industry i in region d, ρ foss,i is the substitution elasticity of fossil energy commodities in industry i.

[0048] Furthermore, the demand for “oil and gas” commodities is determined by the constant elasticity of substitution function of “oil” and “natural gas” commodities, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0049]

[0050] POLGS i,d *XOLGS i,d =POIL i,d *XOIL i,d +PGAS i,d *XGAS i,d ,

[0051] Where: XOLGS i,d is the quantity of intermediate inputs of oil and gas commodities in industry i in region d, POLGS i,d is the intermediate input price of oil and gas commodities in industry i in region d, XOIL i,d and XGAS i,d are the intermediate input quantities of petroleum and natural gas commodities in industry i in region d, POIL i,d and PGAS i,d are the intermediate input prices of oil and natural gas commodities in industry i in region d, δ oil,i,d and δ gas,i,d are the share parameters of oil and natural gas commodities in industry i in region d, respectively, olgs,i,d is the technical parameters of oil and gas products in industry i in region d, ρ olgs,i is the elasticity of substitution of oil and gas commodities in industry i.

[0052] Furthermore, the demand for the commodity "electricity energy" is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of the commodities "coal power", "hydropower" and "other power", and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0053]

[0054] PEL i,d *XEL i,d =PEC i,d *XEC i,d +PEH i,d *XEH i,d +PEO i,d *XEO i,d ,

[0055] In the formula: XEL i,d is the intermediate input quantity of electric energy commodities in industry i in region d, PEL i,dis the intermediate input price of electricity energy commodities in industry i in region d, XEC i,d , XEH i,d and XEO i,d are the intermediate input quantities of coal power products, hydropower products and other power products in industry i in region d, PEC i,d PEH i,d and PEO i,d are the intermediate input prices of coal power, hydropower and other power products in industry i in region d, δ ec,i,d , δ eh,i,d and δ eo,i,d are the share parameters of coal power, hydropower and other power products in industry i of region d, respectively. el,i,d is the technical parameter of electric energy commodity in industry i in region d, ρ el,i The elasticity of substitution of the electricity energy commodity for industry i.

[0056] Furthermore, the water-carbon accounting module in S2 is used to statistically calculate changes in water consumption and carbon emissions;

[0057] The water-carbon policy module is used to set virtual tax rates to construct a constraint mechanism for total water use and total carbon emissions, and to simulate regulatory policies for total water and carbon constraints.

[0058] Furthermore, the water consumption in the water-carbon accounting module includes: studying the calculation of the quantity variables of intermediate inputs for various regions and industries based on various water commodities in the model, and calculating the total water consumption according to the water commodity type, industry and region; the calculation of carbon emissions includes: based on the quantity variables of intermediate inputs for various regions and industries based on various energy commodities in the model, combined with the carbon emission coefficients of various energy commodities, and calculating the total carbon emissions according to region, industry and energy.

[0059] Specifically, the calculation formula is as follows:

[0060]

[0061]

[0062] Where: W d is the total water consumption in area d, W is the total water consumption, C d is the total carbon emissions of region d, C is the total carbon emissions, CF coal is the carbon emission coefficient of coal energy, CF oil is the carbon emission coefficient of petroleum energy, CF gas is the carbon emission coefficient of natural gas energy.

[0063] Furthermore, the water-carbon policy module includes: setting virtual tax rates for water use and carbon emissions to reflect the shadow prices of water and carbon after the implementation of total water use and carbon emissions controls.

[0064] Specifically, due to the database structure and variable settings in the CGE model, it is necessary to convert the virtual tax rate of the specific tax into the tax rate of the ad valorem tax so as to incorporate it into the commodity tax variable of the model.

[0065] The calculation formulas for ad valorem and specific taxes describing water use and carbon emissions are as follows:

[0066]

[0067] Where: TAXWTPU d is the shadow water price in region d, which is reflected as a specific tax in the model, TAXWTAD d Ad valorem tax on water for region D. TAXCEPU d is the shadow price of carbon in region d, which is reflected as a specific tax in the model, TAXCEAD d is the carbon ad valorem tax in region d.

[0068] According to the operation mode of the CGE model and the database structure, the calculation formula is as follows:

[0069]

[0070] Where: taxwtpu d is the shadow price variable for water in region d, taxwtad d is the ad valorem tax variable for water commodities in region d, taxcepu d is the carbon shadow price variable in region d, taxcead d is the ad valorem tax variable for energy commodities in region d, puse c,i,d is the price variable of commodity c in region d input into industry i, USE c,s,i,d is the demand of users of commodity c from source s in region d for industry i, TAX c,s,i,d is the commodity tax of commodity c from source s in region d input to industry i, w is the water commodity type, and e is the energy commodity type.

[0071] Furthermore, the exchange model's regional water volume variables and water commodity shadow price variables as well as water commodity ad valorem tax variables and corresponding drift variables can realize the simulation of regional water volume control; the exchange model's regional carbon emission variables and carbon shadow price variables as well as carbon ad valorem tax variables and corresponding drift variables can realize the simulation of regional carbon emission control.

[0072] Furthermore, the validation of the improved CGE model in S2 includes data consistency test, closure rule test, homogeneity test and robustness test.

[0073] Specifically, the inspection method is as follows:

[0074] (1) Data consistency check. Data consistency check refers to substituting data such as input-output tables into the model and comparing the original data with the model results. If they are inconsistent, it means that there is a problem with the model code or the original data is unbalanced and needs further adjustment. After the test, the model results are consistent with the original data, and the model passes the data consistency check.

[0075] (2) Closure rule test: Check whether the number of equations in the CGE model is equal to the number of endogenous variables and whether the model can be closed and solved.

[0076] (3) Homogeneity test. It is divided into nominal homogeneity test and actual homogeneity test. The nominal homogeneity test model equilibrium solution is not affected by price changes. The actors only respond to changes in relative prices and are not affected by changes in absolute prices. The actual homogeneity test model satisfies the constant returns to scale.

[0077] (4) Robustness test: The values ​​of CGE model parameters affect the accuracy of model results, so it is necessary to conduct a robustness test on the model parameters.

[0078] Furthermore, the baseline scenario in S3 reflects the natural development trend of the economy and society in the study area without the impact of regulatory policies, and serves as a benchmark for policy scenario comparison.

[0079] In a specific embodiment,

[0080] The present invention establishes a basic database based on the comprehensive research demand and water use and energy carbon emission data of published data. The economic data include the input-output table published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the added value of each industry in the statistical yearbook of the province and city where the embodiment is located, and consumption, investment, import and export, etc. The water use data mainly comes from the water resources bulletin published by the water conservancy department of each provincial administrative region, and the water use is divided into industries according to the input-output table of the provincial administrative region. The energy consumption and carbon emission data mainly come from the China Carbon Accounting Database (CEADs), and the energy types include eight types such as raw coal, coke, crude oil, gasoline, kerosene, diesel, fuel oil, and natural gas.

[0081] The CGE model is constructed. The parameters of the CGE model are shown in Table 1, which mainly include the factor substitution elasticity, Armington elasticity, CET elasticity of the production function, the residents' demand expenditure elasticity and Frisch parameter of the consumption function, etc. The parameters of the model are assigned according to the reference materials.

[0082] Table 1 Model parameter values ​​and sources

[0083]

[0084] The CGE model is constructed and verified, including data consistency test, closed rule test, homogeneity test and robustness test.

[0085] (1) Data consistency test. After testing, the model results are consistent with the original data, and the model passes the data consistency test.

[0086] (2) Closure rule test. After testing, under the baseline closure condition, the model has a total of 60,923 exogenous variables and 73,411 endogenous variables, corresponding to 73,411 equations, and the dimensions of each endogenous variable are consistent with those of the equation. The model passes the closure rule test.

[0087] (3) Homogeneity test. It is divided into nominal homogeneity test and actual homogeneity test. The nominal homogeneity test is to make the model benchmark price exogenous and set the change to 1%. After running the model, check whether all price variables in the model change by 1% while the quantity variables are not affected. The actual homogeneity test is to make the model quantity variables (such as capital, labor, consumption, investment, imports and exports) exogenous and set the change to 1%. After running the model, check whether all quantity variables in the model change by 1% while the price variables are not affected. The homogeneity test results of the CGE model are shown in Table 2. After testing, it is found that the price change of the nominal homogeneity test results is very close to 1%, and the quantity change is very close to 0. The price change of the actual homogeneity test results is 0, and the quantity change is 1%. The model passes the homogeneity test.

[0088] Table 2 Results of homogeneity test of CGE model

[0089]

[0090] (4) Robustness test. The elasticity parameters of the model production function (including the domestic commodity substitution elasticity SigmaDomDom, the factor substitution elasticity SigmaPrim, the energy commodity substitution elasticity SigmaEneA, SigmaEneB, SigmaEneC, SigmaEneE, and the water commodity substitution elasticity SigmaWatA, SigmaWatB) are generated by generating a uniform distribution series between low elasticity (reduced by 20%) and high elasticity (increased by 20%) and substituting them into the model to test the changes in the core variables and calculate their standard deviations. The results of the CGE model robustness test are shown in Table 3. The changes in the elasticity parameters have limited impact on the results, indicating that the model is highly stable and the model passes the robustness test.

[0091] Table 3 Results of robustness test of CGE model

[0092]

[0093] A baseline scenario and a regulatory policy scenario are established. The baseline scenario design mainly refers to the International Monetary Fund's forecast and literature on China's economic growth rate, and combines the current status of the study area's economy, water use, energy consumption and carbon emissions to predict future growth trends.

[0094] The policy scenarios include water control scenario, carbon control scenario and water-carbon joint control scenario, as shown in Table 4.

[0095] Table 4 Policy scenario design

[0096]

[0097]

[0098] Through the simulation of the baseline and policy scenarios, the changes in the policy scenario compared with the baseline scenario were compared, and the simulation results were obtained as shown in Table 5 and Figure 3 shown.

[0099] Table 5 Simulation results of different scenarios in the improved CGE model

[0100]

[0101] It can be seen from the scenario simulation results that the construction of the present invention can quantify the water consumption, carbon emissions and economic impact of different regions and industries under the influence of water-carbon-economy regulation policies, provide a basis for multi-scenario simulation and comparative analysis for decision makers, and provide technical support for the formulation and evaluation of water-saving and carbon reduction policies.

[0102] Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, and the same or similar parts between the embodiments can refer to each other, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. In particular, for the system or system embodiment, since it is basically similar to the method embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can refer to the partial description of the method embodiment. The system and system embodiments described above are merely schematic, wherein the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components displayed as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the scheme of this embodiment. Ordinary technicians in this field can understand and implement it without creative work.

[0103] The above description of the disclosed embodiments enables one skilled in the art to implement or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be apparent to one skilled in the art, and the general principles defined herein may be implemented in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention will not be limited to the embodiments shown herein, but rather to the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims

1. A method for modeling water-carbon-economy relationships and policy evaluation based on CGE model expansion of water-carbon related modules, characterized in that The following steps are involved: S1. Obtain economic data, industry water use data, energy consumption data and carbon emission data to generate basic data sets; S2. Use the basic data set to construct a water module and an energy module, a water-carbon accounting module and a water-carbon policy module, combine the CGE model, the water module and the energy module, the water-carbon accounting module and the water-carbon policy module to generate an improved CGE model, verify the improved CGE model, and obtain a verified CGE model; S3. Establish a baseline scenario and a regulatory policy scenario, use the verified CGE model to simulate the water-carbon regulatory policy, and obtain the water consumption, carbon emissions and economic impact by region and industry under the influence of the regulatory policy.

2. According to claim 1, a method for implementing water-carbon-economy relationship modeling and policy evaluation based on CGE model expansion of water-carbon related modules, characterized in that: The demand for water commodities in the S2 water module is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function between conventional water and unconventional water commodities; In the energy module, the demand for energy commodities is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of two types of energy commodities: fossil energy and electric energy.

3. According to claim 2, a method for implementing water-carbon-economy relationship modeling and policy evaluation based on CGE model expansion of water-carbon related modules, characterized in that: The demand for conventional water commodities is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of surface water and groundwater commodities; the demand for fossil energy commodities is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of coal and oil and gas commodities, and the demand for oil and gas commodities is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of petroleum and natural gas commodities; the demand for electric energy commodities is determined by the constant substitution elasticity function of coal-fired power, hydropower and other electric power commodities.

4. According to claim 1, a method for implementing water-carbon-economy relationship modeling and policy evaluation based on CGE model expansion of water-carbon related modules, characterized in that: The water-carbon accounting module in S3 is used to calculate the statistical changes in water consumption and carbon emissions; The water and carbon policy module is used to simulate regulatory policies for total water and carbon constraints.

5. According to claim 4, a method for implementing water-carbon-economy relationship modeling and policy evaluation based on CGE model expansion of water-carbon related modules, characterized in that: The water consumption in the water-carbon accounting module includes: studying the calculation of the quantity variables of intermediate inputs for various regions and industries based on various water commodities in the model, and calculating the total water consumption according to the water commodity type, industry and region; the calculation of carbon emissions includes: based on the quantity variables of intermediate inputs for various regions and industries based on various energy commodities in the model, combined with the carbon emission coefficients of various energy commodities, and calculating the total carbon emissions according to region, industry and energy.

6. According to claim 4, a method for implementing water-carbon-economy relationship modeling and policy evaluation based on CGE model expansion of water-carbon related modules, characterized in that: The water-carbon policy module includes: setting virtual tax rates for water use and carbon emissions to reflect the shadow prices of water and carbon after the implementation of total water use and carbon emissions controls.

7. The method for implementing water-carbon-economy relationship modeling and policy evaluation based on CGE model expansion of water-carbon related modules according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The validation of the improved CGE model in S2 includes data consistency test, closure rule test, homogeneity test and robustness test.

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