Dammed lake disaster reduction method based on disaster chain blocking

Abstract

The invention discloses a disaster chain blocking-based barrier lake disaster reduction method. The method comprises the following steps of: establishing a barrier lake disaster chain generation mechanism model based on barrier lake disaster states and driving factors; establishing a chain breaking mechanism model for reducing the damage energy of a source disaster-causing body according to the barrier lake disaster chain generation mechanism model; establishing a flood chain breaking mechanism model for blocking a flood propagation chain according to the chain generation mechanism model of the barrier lake disaster chain; and establishing a disaster-bearing body chain breaking mechanism model for improving the disaster avoidance accuracy of the disaster-bearing body according to the barrier lake disaster chain generation mechanism model. The technical defects that a traditional emergency disposal method cannot carry out disaster reduction disposal from the angle of a full chain and is low in efficiency are overcome, and the three-in-one systematic barrier lake disaster reduction method is established, that is, the damage energy of a disaster-causing body is reduced from the source, a flood propagation chain is blocked by a path, and the risk avoiding precision of a disaster-bearing body is improved at the tail end; the method is suitable for source energy reduction, transmission chain breakage and disaster-bearing body transfer full-chain disaster reduction of barrier lake disasters.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application belongs to the technical field of water conservancy engineering disaster emergency disposal, and particularly relates to a dammed lake disaster mitigation method based on disaster chain blocking. BACKGROUND

[0002] A dammed lake is formed by a landslide, debris flow and other sudden geological disasters blocking a river to form a dammed lake, and has the characteristics of strong suddenness, great randomness, strong destructive power and short disposal window period, and is prone to form a chain disaster. For thousands of years, humans have suffered greatly from it. The service life of a dammed lake varies greatly and the emergency disposal window period is short. How to scientifically classify the risk of a dammed lake is the key to avoiding blind rescue. According to the definition of risk in ISO31000:2009 "International Standard for Risk Management", the risk of a dammed lake can be represented as the product of the probability of dammed lake breaching and the loss of dammed lake breaching, that is, R=PC, R is the risk of a dammed lake; P is the probability of dammed lake breaching; C is the loss of dammed lake breaching. The former mainly represents the dangerousness of the dammed body, and the higher the dangerousness, the greater the probability of breaching; the latter mainly represents the loss caused by the dammed lake and the breaching flood. The dammed lake disaster has obvious chain evolution characteristics. The traditional emergency disposal method is a single method, which cannot carry out disaster mitigation and disposal from the whole chain, and the efficiency is low.

[0003] Chinese patent application (application publication number CN120013223A) discloses a dammed lake risk quantitative grading fuzzy evaluation method, which comprises: determining a set of dammed lake risk evaluation factors and a set of dammed lake risk evaluation grades; calculating the membership degrees of each evaluation factor in the evaluation factor set to each evaluation grade in the evaluation grade set, and constructing a membership degree matrix; based on the importance scoring of the two-by-two comparison of the evaluation factors in each level, calculating the weights of the evaluation factors in each level, and finally integrating to obtain the final weight vector; and determining the dammed lake risk evaluation grade based on the membership degree matrix and the weight vector. The dammed lake risk quantitative grading fuzzy evaluation method proposed by the present application solves the problem of inconsistent evaluation factor weight assignment by experts, the evaluation index system and grading are reasonable, the information acquisition method is feasible, the weight vector is scientific, and the risk grade evaluation result is reliable. However, the invention patent application only evaluates the risk grade of a dammed lake, and does not involve the problem of disaster mitigation and disposal technology. SUMMARY

[0004] The purpose of the present application is to solve the above technical problems, and to provide a "energy reduction-chain breaking-accuracy improvement" three-in-one systematic dammed lake disaster mitigation method based on disaster chain blocking.

[0005] To achieve the above purpose, the present application provides a dammed lake disaster mitigation method based on disaster chain blocking, which is as follows:

[0006] A dammed lake disaster chain generation mechanism model is established based on the disaster state and driving factors of a dammed lake;

[0007] According to the chain generation mechanism model of the barrier lake disaster chain, a chain breaking mechanism model is established to reduce the damage energy of the source disaster body;

[0008] According to the chain generation mechanism model of the barrier lake disaster chain, a flood chain breaking mechanism model is established to block the flood propagation chain;

[0009] According to the chain generation mechanism model of the barrier lake disaster chain, a disaster body chain breaking mechanism model is established to improve the disaster avoidance accuracy of the disaster body.

[0010] Further, the chain generation mechanism model of the barrier lake disaster chain is shown as formula (1):

[0011]

[0012] In the formula, C1 is the initial blocking river state of the barrier dam to form a disaster body; E1 is a potential energy driving factor, that is, after the barrier dam blocks the river, the water level of the barrier lake reservoir rises, and the potential energy gradually increases; C2 is the state of the barrier body collapse, under the action of the potential energy driving factor E1, the disaster is generated from the initial blocking river state to the barrier body collapse state; E2 is a kinetic energy driving factor, that is, the potential energy of the water level of the barrier lake reservoir is converted into the kinetic energy of the flood after the barrier body collapses; C3 is the state of the barrier body collapse flood propagating downstream, under the action of the kinetic energy driving factor E2, the disaster is generated from the barrier body collapse state to the barrier body collapse flood propagating downstream; E3 is a flood peak driving factor, that is, the kinetic energy of the flood forms a flood peak in the propagation process; C4 is the state of the disaster body loss, under the action of the driving factor E3, the disaster is generated from the barrier body collapse flood propagating downstream state to the disaster body loss state.

[0013] Further, the specific process of the chain breaking mechanism model for reducing the damage energy of the source disaster body according to the chain generation mechanism model of the barrier lake disaster chain is as follows:

[0014] According to the chain generation mechanism model of the barrier lake disaster chain, for C1 and C2 states in the propagation chain, a chain breaking mechanism model is established to reduce the damage energy of the source disaster body, and the chain breaking mechanism model includes a source disaster body damage energy factor set, a disaster body chain breaking measure set, and a disaster body chain breaking mechanism algorithm;

[0015] The source disaster body damage energy factor set F1 includes the potential energy of the water level of the barrier lake reservoir F 11 , the kinetic energy of the collapse flood peak F 12 , that is, F1=[F 11 , F 12 ]; the disaster body chain breaking measure set M1 includes the variable slope acceleration type drainage groove chain breaking measure M 11 (suitable for easily erodible barrier body), the drainage channel chain breaking measure M 12 (suitable for not easily erodible barrier body), that is, M1=[M 11 ,M 12]; Disaster-causing body chain-breaking mechanism algorithm: If the dam material is easy to scour, the slope-changing accelerated drainage channel chain-breaking measure M is selected 11 , guide the landslide body to burst through the diversion channel, realize the reduction of the potential energy of the landslide lake reservoir water level, and flatten the burst flood peak to reduce the kinetic energy; if the landslide body material is not easy to be eroded, the discharge channel chain breaking measure M is selected 12 , the potential energy of the barrier lake reservoir water level is reduced by stabilizing the flow through the discharge channel, and the kinetic energy of the flood peak is reduced by flattening; as shown in formula (2):

[0016] Formula (2).

[0017] Furthermore, the specific process of establishing a flood chain-breaking mechanism model based on the chain generation mechanism model of the barrier lake disaster to block the flood propagation chain is as follows:

[0018] According to the chain generation mechanism model of the landslide lake disaster, targeting the C3 state in the transmission chain, a flood chain breaking mechanism model is established to block the flood transmission chain. The flood chain breaking mechanism model includes a set of flood transmission chain disaster factors, a set of flood chain breaking measures, and a transmission chain breaking mechanism algorithm.

[0019] The flood transmission chain disaster factor set F2 includes the total flood volume F 21 , flood peak type F 22 and super-standard flood F 23 , that is, F2=[F 21 , F 22 , F 23 ]; The flood chain breaking measure set M2 includes the downstream reservoir pre-discharge flood control measures M 21 Flood chain breaking mechanism algorithm: According to the storage capacity curve of the downstream reservoir, determine the available storage capacity △V of the downstream reservoir, and the maximum discharge flow Q 下泄流量 Start pre-discharge control, as shown in formula (3), to ensure that the storage capacity is emptied before the flood peak arrives while ensuring the safety of the downstream reservoir, and reduce the total flood volume F by vacating the storage capacity. 21 , regulating flood peak peak type F 22 , blocking excessive floods F 23 , blocking the flood propagation path at the downstream reservoir location, thereby protecting the downstream population, towns, and infrastructure:

[0020] Q 下泄流量 =min(△V / t,max(Q 泄量 Formula (3)

[0021] Where: t is the predicted time for flood to propagate from the dam to the downstream reservoir, in seconds; Q 泄量 is the discharge of the downstream reservoir, in m 3 / s.

[0022] Further, the specific process of the disaster-bearing body chain-breaking mechanism model for improving the disaster-avoiding accuracy of the disaster-bearing body according to the dammed lake disaster chain generation mechanism model is as follows:

[0023] According to the dammed lake disaster chain generation mechanism model, a disaster-bearing body chain-breaking mechanism model for improving the disaster-avoiding accuracy of the disaster-bearing body is established for the C4 state in the propagation chain, and the disaster-bearing body chain-breaking mechanism model comprises a disaster-bearing body factor set, a disaster-bearing body risk-avoiding measure set and a disaster-bearing body chain-breaking mechanism algorithm;

[0024] The disaster-bearing body factor set F3 comprises the population in the dammed lake outburst flood inundation range F 31 The disaster-bearing body chain-breaking measure set M3 comprises early warning information targeted pushing measures M 31 , evacuation path autonomous planning measures M 32 , and personnel transfer dynamic monitoring measures M 33 , that is, M3=[M 31 , M 32 , M 33 ]; the disaster-bearing body chain-breaking mechanism algorithm: according to the flood propagation range, the risk early warning area is divided into a flood inundation area Z1, a flood influence area Z2 and a risk-avoiding safety area Z3, the population heat distribution in the Z1 and Z2 areas is identified based on the LBS technology, the early warning information is targeted pushed to the population in the Z1 and Z2 areas, the evacuation path is dynamically planned in different areas, the transferred personnel are monitored in real time, and the controlled risk-avoiding accuracy of the population in the dammed lake outburst flood inundation range is improved.

[0025] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present application are that the present application breaks through the technical defects that the traditional emergency disposal method cannot carry out disaster reduction disposal from the whole chain angle and has low efficiency, and establishes a "energy reduction-chain breaking-accuracy improvement" three-in-one systematic dammed lake disaster reduction method, that is, the damage energy of the source is reduced, the flood propagation chain is blocked, and the risk-avoiding accuracy of the end is improved, which is suitable for the source energy reduction, propagation chain breaking and disaster-bearing body transfer of the whole chain of the dammed lake disaster. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0026] The technical solutions of the present application (including the preferred technical solutions) will be further described in detail below by listing some optional embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present application, not all the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present application, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative labor belong to the scope of protection of the present application.

[0027] The dammed lake disaster reduction method based on disaster chain blocking is as follows:

[0028] A dammed lake disaster chain generation mechanism model based on the dammed lake disaster state and driving factor is established, as shown in formula (1):

[0029]

[0030] In the formula: C1 is the initial blocking state of the dammed dam, forming a disaster-causing body; E1 is the potential energy driving factor, that is, after the dammed dam blocks the river, the potential energy gradually increases on the water level of the dammed lake reservoir; C2 is the dammed body collapse state, under the action of the potential energy driving factor E1, the disaster from the initial blocking state of the river chain to the dammed body collapse state; E2 is the kinetic energy driving factor, that is, the potential energy of the water level of the dammed lake reservoir is converted into the kinetic energy of the flood after the dammed body collapses; C3 is the state of the dammed body collapse flood propagating downstream, under the action of the kinetic energy driving factor E2, the disaster from the dammed body collapse state chain to the dammed body collapse flood propagating downstream; E3 is the flood peak driving factor, that is, the kinetic energy of the flood forms a flood peak in the propagation process; C4 is the loss state of the disaster-bearing body, under the action of the driving factor E3, the disaster from the dammed body collapse flood propagating downstream state chain to the disaster-bearing body loss state.

[0031] Establish a chain-breaking mechanism model to reduce the damage energy of the source disaster-causing body

[0032] According to the chain generation mechanism model of the dammed lake disaster chain, for C1 and C2 states in the propagation chain, a chain-breaking mechanism model is established to reduce the damage energy of the source disaster-causing body. The chain-breaking mechanism model includes a set of disaster-causing body damage energy factors, a set of disaster-causing body chain-breaking measures, and a disaster-causing body chain-breaking mechanism algorithm.

[0033] The set of disaster-causing body damage energy factors F1 includes the potential energy of the water level of the dammed lake reservoir F 11 , the kinetic energy of the collapse flood peak F 12 , that is, F1=[F 11 , F 12 ]; the set of disaster-causing body chain-breaking measures M1 includes the variable-slope acceleration type drainage groove chain-breaking measure M 11 (suitable for easily erodible dammed bodies), the drainage channel chain-breaking measure M 12 (suitable for not easily erodible dammed bodies), that is, M1=[M 11 , M 12 ]; the disaster-causing body chain-breaking mechanism algorithm: if the dammed body material is easily erodible, select the variable-slope acceleration type drainage groove chain-breaking measure M 11 , guide the dammed body to collapse through the drainage groove, realize the reduction of the potential energy of the water level of the dammed lake reservoir, and the reduction of the kinetic energy of the flattened collapse flood peak; if the dammed body material is not easily erodible, select the drainage channel chain-breaking measure M 12 , realize the reduction of the potential energy of the water level of the dammed lake reservoir through stable flow in the drainage channel, and the reduction of the kinetic energy of the flattened collapse flood peak. As shown in formula (2)

[0034] Formula (2)

[0035] For example, the aforementioned barrier lake disaster chain mechanism model was adopted for barrier lakes A, B, C, and D to reduce destructive energy and achieve a chain break at the source of the disaster. The use of drainage channel chain breakage measures in barrier lakes A, B, and C reduced outburst flood peaks by 28%, 35%, and 49%, respectively. This reduced both the maximum potential energy of the barrier lake reservoirs and the scouring and destructive kinetic energy of the outburst flood peaks. The use of a spillway chain breakage measure in barrier lake D also ensured stable outflow from the barrier lake, significantly reducing energy consumption.

[0036] Establish a flood chain-breaking mechanism model to block the flood transmission chain

[0037] According to the chain generation mechanism model of the landslide lake disaster, a flood chain breaking mechanism model is established to block the flood transmission chain for the C3 state in the transmission chain. The flood chain breaking mechanism model includes a set of flood transmission chain disaster factors, a set of flood chain breaking measures and a transmission chain breaking mechanism algorithm.

[0038] The flood transmission chain disaster factor set F2 includes the total flood volume F 21 , flood peak type F 22 and super-standard flood F 23 , that is, F2=[F 21 , F 22 , F 23 ]; The flood chain breaking measure set M2 includes the downstream reservoir pre-discharge flood control measures M 21 Flood chain breaking mechanism algorithm: According to the storage capacity curve of the downstream reservoir, determine the available storage capacity △V of the downstream reservoir, and the maximum discharge flow Q 下泄流量 Start pre-discharge control, as shown in formula (3), to ensure that the storage capacity is emptied before the flood peak arrives while ensuring the safety of the downstream reservoir, and reduce the total flood volume F by vacating the storage capacity. 21 , regulating flood peak peak type F 22 , blocking excessive floods F 23 , blocking the flood propagation path at the downstream reservoir location, thereby protecting the downstream population, towns and infrastructure.

[0039] Q 下泄流量 =min(△V / t,max(Q 泄量 Formula (3)

[0040] Where: t is the predicted time for flood to propagate from the dam to the downstream reservoir, in seconds; Q 泄量 is the discharge of the downstream reservoir, in m 3 / s.

[0041] If the pre-discharge measures of the downstream reservoirs are applied to the C landslide lake, the flood transmission chain will be broken at Reservoir A and Reservoir B respectively, eliminating the risk of the landslide lake bursting flood.

[0042] Establish a disaster-bearing body chain breaking mechanism model to improve the disaster-avoiding accuracy of disaster-bearing bodies

[0043] According to the chain generation mechanism model of barrier lake disaster chain, a disaster-bearing body chain breaking mechanism model is established to improve the disaster-avoiding accuracy of disaster-bearing bodies for C4 state in the propagation chain.

[0044] The disaster-bearing body factor set F3 includes the population in the barrier lake outburst flood inundation area F 31 The disaster-bearing body chain breaking measure set M3 includes early warning information targeted push measure M 31 , evacuation path autonomous planning measure M 32 , and personnel transfer dynamic monitoring measure M 33 , that is, M3=[M 31 , M 32 , M 33 ]; the disaster-bearing body chain breaking mechanism algorithm: according to the flood propagation range, the risk early warning area is divided into flood inundation area Z1, flood influence area Z2 and refuge safety area Z3, the LBS technology is used to identify the population heat distribution in Z1 and Z2 areas, the early warning information is targeted pushed to the population in Z1 and Z2 areas, the evacuation path is dynamically planned in different areas, the transferred personnel are monitored in real time, and the controlled refuge accuracy of the population in the outburst flood inundation area is improved.

[0045] If the disaster-bearing body chain breaking mechanism model is applied to C barrier lake, the accurate transfer of risk population is realized, and the secondary flood does not cause personnel casualties.

[0046] In summary, the disaster chain chain generation mechanism model based on the barrier lake disaster state and driving factor is established, the barrier lake disaster evolution path is quantified, the model basis for systematic chain breaking disaster reduction is provided, the whole chain chain breaking disaster reduction model for reducing the energy of the disaster-causing body, blocking the flood propagation chain and improving the refuge accuracy of the disaster-bearing body is constructed, the chain type collaborative disaster reduction of barrier lake disaster "source disaster-causing body-> path-> end disaster-bearing body" is realized, and the disaster reduction effect is obvious when the model is applied to various barrier lake emergency disposal.

[0047] The specific implementation process is as follows:

[0048] According to the actual barrier lake, the disaster state and driving factor are quantified, and the barrier lake disaster chain chain generation mechanism model is established.

[0049] The barrier body erosion resistance is judged; according to the disaster-causing body chain breaking mechanism algorithm, if it is judged that the barrier body material is easy to be eroded, the variable slope acceleration type drainage groove chain breaking measure M 11 is used to reduce the damage capacity, and the drainage groove cross section shape and longitudinal slope variable slope gradient are determined according to the investable mechanical equipment, barrier body damage energy and guaranteeing controllable outburst of the barrier body; if it is judged that the barrier body material is not easy to be eroded, the drainage channel chain breaking measure M12 The breaking ability is reduced, and the shape of the discharge channel section is determined according to the investable mechanical equipment, dam breaking energy and section stability.

[0050] According to the flood breaking chain mechanism model for blocking the flood propagation chain, the downstream reservoir available capacity AV is calculated through the downstream reservoir capacity curve, and the maximum discharge Q of the reservoir is determined 下泄流量 , and the pre-discharge control is started; the downstream reservoir capacity is emptied before the flood peak arrives to ensure the safety of the downstream reservoir, and the reservoir capacity is emptied to block the flood propagation path at the downstream reservoir position.

[0051] According to the risk early warning area divided according to the flood propagation range, the risk population heat map is generated through the LBS technology, the risk avoidance path is sent to different people in different areas, the transferred personnel are monitored in real time, and the risk partition is dynamically optimized every 10 minutes. The flood evolution model parameters are updated in real time to adjust the risk avoidance path, and the end carrier breaking chain is realized.

[0052] The dam-break lake disaster reduction method based on disaster chain blocking of the application will be further described below in combination with specific embodiments.

[0053] Applied to C dam-break lake:

[0054] Firstly, the breaking chain mechanism model for reducing the breaking energy of the source disaster body is applied. After judgment, the material of the C dam-break lake is relatively easy to be scoured, and the slope changing acceleration type drainage groove breaking chain measure M is selected for on-site emergency disposal 11 , the dam-break lake water level potential energy is reduced (the dam-break lake water level is reduced from 2966m to 2933m, and the reduction is 33m), and the flat breaking flood peak kinetic energy is reduced (the breaking flood peak is reduced from 43000m 3 / s to 31000m 3 / s, and the reduction is 28%), which reduces the maximum potential energy of the dam-break lake water level and the scouring and breaking kinetic energy of the breaking flood peak.

[0055] Secondly, the flood breaking chain mechanism model for blocking the flood propagation chain is applied. After calculation, the downstream hydropower station available capacity AV=173 million m 3 , the predicted time t=44h for the flood to propagate from the dam-break body to the downstream reservoir, AV / t=1092m 3 / s, and the maximum discharge Q 泄量 of the hydropower station is 10000m 3 / s, therefore, Q 下泄流量 =1092m 3 / s. Further, the flood is emptied by 173 million cubic meters of reservoir capacity, and the dam-break lake breaking chain is realized to eliminate the dam-break lake breaking flood risk.

[0056] Finally, the chain-breaking mechanism model of hazard-affected body is applied to improve the disaster-avoiding accuracy of hazard-affected body. According to the flood propagation range, the area from the dammed body to the reservoir is divided into risk warning areas, i.e. flood inundation area Z1, flood affected area Z2 and safety area Z3. The population heat distribution in Z1 and Z2 is identified based on LBS technology, and the warning information is targeted to push to the population in Z1 and Z2. The evacuation path is dynamically planned in different areas to realize the accurate transfer of risk population, and the secondary flood of C dammed lake does not cause casualties.

[0057] Those skilled in the art will readily understand that the above is only a preferred embodiment of the present application, and is not intended to limit the present application. Any modification, combination, replacement, improvement, etc. made under the spirit and principles of the present application is included in the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for reducing landslide lake disasters based on blocking the disaster chain, characterized by: The specific methods for mitigating the disaster of barrier lakes are as follows: Establish a chain mechanism model of landslide lake disaster based on the state of landslide lake disaster and driving factors; Based on the chain generation mechanism model of barrier lake disaster, a chain breaking mechanism model is established to reduce the destructive energy of the source disaster body; According to the chain generation mechanism model of barrier lake disaster, a flood chain breaking mechanism model was established to block the flood propagation chain. Based on the chain generation mechanism model of barrier lake disaster, a disaster-bearing body chain breaking mechanism model is established to improve the disaster avoidance accuracy of disaster-bearing bodies.

2. The method for reducing landslide-dammed lake disasters based on blocking the disaster chain according to claim 1, characterized in that: The chain generation mechanism model of the barrier lake disaster is shown in formula (1): Where: f is the chain generation mechanism function of the landslide lake disaster; C1 is the initial state of the landslide dam blocking the river channel, forming the disaster-causing body; E1 is the potential energy driving factor; C2 is the state of the landslide body bursting. Under the action of the potential energy driving factor E1, the disaster is chained from the initial state of blocking the river channel to the state of the landslide body bursting; E2 is the kinetic energy driving factor; C3 is the state of the landslide body bursting flood propagating downstream. Under the action of the kinetic energy driving factor E2, the disaster is chained from the state of the landslide body bursting to the state of the bursting flood propagating downstream; E3 is the flood peak driving factor; C4 is the state of the hazard-bearing body loss. Under the action of the driving factor E3, the disaster is chained from the state of the bursting flood propagating downstream to the state of the hazard-bearing body loss.

3. The method for reducing landslide-dammed lake disasters based on blocking the disaster chain according to claim 2 is characterized by: The specific process of establishing a chain-breaking mechanism model based on the chain generation mechanism model of the barrier lake disaster to reduce the destructive energy of the source disaster-causing body is as follows: Based on the chain generation mechanism model of the barrier lake disaster, a chain breaking mechanism model is established for the C1 and C2 states in the transmission chain to reduce the destructive energy of the source disaster-causing body. The chain breaking mechanism model includes a set of source disaster-causing body destructive energy factors, a set of disaster-causing body chain breaking measures, and a disaster-causing body chain breaking mechanism algorithm. The source disaster-causing body destruction energy factor set F1 includes the barrier lake reservoir water level potential energy F 11 , kinetic energy of flood peak F 12 , that is, F1=[F 11 , F 12 ]; Disaster-causing body chain-breaking measures set M1 includes slope-changing accelerated drainage channel chain-breaking measures M 11 , measures to break the chain of spillway M 12 , that is, M1=[M 11 ,M 12 ]; Disaster-causing body chain-breaking mechanism algorithm: If the dam material is easy to scour, the slope-changing accelerated drainage channel chain-breaking measure M is selected 11 If the dam material is not easy to be washed away, the spillway chain breaking measure M is selected. 12 ; As shown in formula (2): Formula (2).

4. The method for reducing landslide-dammed lake disasters based on blocking the disaster chain according to claim 3 is characterized by: The specific process of establishing a flood chain-breaking mechanism model based on the chain generation mechanism model of the barrier lake disaster to block the flood propagation chain is as follows: According to the chain generation mechanism model of the landslide lake disaster, targeting the C3 state in the transmission chain, a flood chain breaking mechanism model is established to block the flood transmission chain. The flood chain breaking mechanism model includes a set of flood transmission chain disaster factors, a set of flood chain breaking measures, and a transmission chain breaking mechanism algorithm. The flood transmission chain disaster factor set F2 includes the total flood volume F 21 , flood peak type F 22 and super-standard flood F 23 , that is, F2=[F 21 , F 22 , F 23 ]; The flood chain breaking measure set M2 includes the downstream reservoir pre-discharge flood control measures M 21 Flood chain breaking mechanism algorithm: According to the storage capacity curve of the downstream reservoir, determine the available storage capacity △V of the downstream reservoir, and the maximum discharge flow Q 下泄流量 Start pre-discharge control, as shown in formula (3): Q 下泄流量 =min(△V / t,max(Q 泄量 )) Formula (3) Where: t is the predicted time for flood to propagate from the dam to the downstream reservoir, in seconds; Q 泄量 is the discharge of the downstream reservoir, in m 3 / s.

5. The method for reducing landslide-dammed lake disasters based on blocking the disaster chain according to claim 4 is characterized by: The specific process of establishing the disaster-bearing body chain-breaking mechanism model based on the chain-generation mechanism model of the barrier lake disaster to improve the disaster avoidance accuracy of the disaster-bearing body is as follows: Based on the chain generation mechanism model of the landslide lake disaster, targeting the C4 state in the transmission chain, a disaster-prone body chain-breaking mechanism model is established to improve the disaster avoidance accuracy of the disaster-prone body. The disaster-prone body chain-breaking mechanism model includes a set of disaster-prone body factors, a set of disaster-prone body risk avoidance measures, and a disaster-prone body chain-breaking mechanism algorithm. The disaster-bearing factor set F3 includes the population F in the flooded area of ​​the barrier lake outburst flood 31 ; Disaster-bearing body disconnection measures set M3 includes warning information targeted push measures M 31 , evacuation route autonomous planning measures M 32 , Dynamic monitoring measures for personnel transfer M 33 , that is, M3=[M 31 , M 32 , M 33 ]; Disaster-bearing body chain-breaking mechanism algorithm: Divide the risk warning area according to the flood propagation range, including the flood inundation area Z1, the flood impact area Z2 and the risk refuge safety area Z3. Based on the LBS technology, the thermal distribution of the population in the Z1 and Z2 areas is identified, and the warning information is pushed to the population in the Z1 and Z2 areas in a targeted manner. The evacuation route is dynamically planned by region, and the transferred personnel are monitored in real time.

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