System and method for identifying supply chain problems

Abstract

A method for analyzing a supply chain includes determining a plurality of characteristics for each shipment of a plurality of shipments; and for each trip, determining whether any of the characteristics indicates or corresponds to an identified problem, the identified problem being one of a plurality of predetermined problems. Based on information about the determined characteristics of the shipment including the identified problem and other shipments having corresponding characteristics, determining, for each identified problem, a probability of whether the identified problem will occur on a future shipment. A determination is made, based on the determined probabilities, as to which of the plurality of predetermined problems is most likely to occur during the future shipment.

Description

[0001] Cross-reference to related applications

[0002] This application claims priority to U.S. Provisional Application No. 62 / 782,600, filed on December 20, 2018, which is incorporated herein by reference. Background Art

[0003] During shipping, various factors influence performance and results, including the trends of the carrier or shipping company and conditions along the shipping route. Some aspects of the shipper's performance may, in some cases, have an adverse effect on the shipped items. The reasons why some shipments are successful or satisfactory and others are unsuccessful or unsatisfactory can be varied and complex.

[0004] While various proposals have been made and various products or services are available for monitoring the conditions of a vehicle or within a shipping container during shipment, most of them provide only basic or direct reports of the conditions being measured. None of them provide information about broader trends related to problems that may arise in different shipments or different shipping companies. Summary of the Invention

[0005] An illustrative example embodiment of a method for analyzing a supply chain includes determining a plurality of characteristics for each of a plurality of shipments. The characteristics for each shipment include an identification of at least one carrier from a plurality of known carriers, an indication of the cargo within at least one shipping container, an origin and destination of the shipment, a distance between the origin and destination, a number of stops between the origin and destination, a duration between a start time and a completion time of the shipment, and at least one other characteristic indicating the performance or condition of the at least one container during the shipment. For each of the shipments, the method includes determining whether any of the characteristics indicates or corresponds to an identified problem, the identified problem being one of a plurality of predetermined problems. Based on information regarding the determined characteristics of at least one of the shipments and information regarding corresponding characteristics of other shipments in the plurality of shipments, a probability is determined for each identified problem as to whether the identified problem will occur in a future shipment, at least one of the shipments including the identified problem. A determination is made based on the determined probabilities as to which of the plurality of predetermined problems is most likely to occur during the future shipment.

[0006] In an example embodiment having one or more features of the method described in the preceding paragraphs, determining the probability of each identified problem is based on a combination of the characteristics of the shipment that included the identified problem and characteristics of other shipments in the shipment that include the same characteristics that are indicative of or correspond to the identified problem.

[0007] An example embodiment having one or more features of the method of any of the preceding paragraphs includes determining which of the plurality of predetermined problems are most likely to occur for each of the origins and each of the destinations.

[0008] An example embodiment having one or more features of the method of any of the preceding paragraphs includes determining which of the origins and which of the destinations is most likely associated with at least one of the predetermined issues.

[0009] An example embodiment having one or more features of the method of any of the preceding paragraphs includes determining which of the plurality of predetermined problems are most likely to occur for each of the plurality of carriers.

[0010] An example embodiment having one or more features of the method of any of the preceding paragraphs includes determining which carrier of the plurality of carriers is most likely to experience at least one of the predetermined issues.

[0011] An example embodiment having one or more features of the method of any of the preceding paragraphs includes determining which of the plurality of predetermined issues are most likely to occur based on at least one of the duration, start time, or completion time of the future shipment.

[0012] In an example embodiment having one or more features of the method of any of the preceding paragraphs, the container used for at least some of the shipments is a temperature-controlled container, the plurality of determined characteristics include a temperature within the temperature-controlled container during the at least some of the shipments, and the predetermined question includes at least one question based on the temperature within the temperature-controlled container.

[0013] In an example embodiment having one or more features of the method of any of the preceding paragraphs, determining the probability of each identified problem is based on a plurality of combinations of: respective carriers among the carriers, respective origins among the origins, respective destinations among the destinations, respective distances among the expected distances, respective number of stops among the expected number of stops, and respective durations among the durations.

[0014] In an example embodiment having one or more features of the method of any of the preceding paragraphs, determining the probability of each identified problem is based on all combinations of: the carrier, the origin, the destination, the expected distance, the expected number of stops, and the duration.

[0015] An illustrative example system for analyzing a supply chain including multiple carriers that each complete a plurality of shipments includes a processor and a database associated with the processor. The processor is configured to: determine a plurality of characteristics of each shipment in the plurality of shipments; provide the determined characteristics for each trip to the database, wherein the database stores the determined characteristics; for each shipment in the shipments, determine whether any of the characteristics indicates or corresponds to an identified problem, the identified problem being one of a plurality of predetermined problems; determine, for each identified problem, a probability that the identified problem will occur on a future shipment, at least one of the shipments including the identified problem, based on information from the database regarding the determined characteristics of at least one shipment in the shipments and information from the database regarding corresponding characteristics of other shipments in the plurality of shipments; provide the determined probabilities to the database, wherein the database stores the determined probabilities; and determine which of the plurality of predetermined problems is most likely to occur during a future shipment based on the determined probabilities. The characteristics of each shipment include: an identification of at least one of the carriers that completed the shipment, an indication of the cargo within at least one shipping container during the shipment, an origin and destination of the shipment, a distance traveled between the origin and the destination, a number of stops between the origin and the destination, a duration between the start time and the completion time of the shipment, and at least one other characteristic, the at least one other characteristic indicating the performance or condition of the at least one container during the shipment.

[0016] In an example embodiment having one or more features of the system described in the preceding paragraphs, the processor is configured to determine the probability of each identified problem based on a combination of the characteristics of the shipment that included the identified problem and characteristics of other shipments in the shipment that include the same characteristics that are indicative of or correspond to the identified problem.

[0017] In an example embodiment having one or more features of the system of any of the preceding paragraphs, the processor is configured to determine which of the plurality of predetermined questions are most likely to occur for each of the origins and each of the destinations.

[0018] In an example embodiment having one or more features of the system of any of the preceding paragraphs, the processor is configured to determine which of the origins and which of the destinations is most likely associated with at least one of the predetermined questions.

[0019] In an example embodiment having one or more features of the system of any of the preceding paragraphs, the processor is configured to determine which of the plurality of predetermined problems are most likely to occur for each of the plurality of carriers.

[0020] In an example embodiment having one or more features of the system of any of the preceding paragraphs, the processor is configured to determine which of the plurality of carriers is most likely to experience at least one of the predetermined issues.

[0021] In an example embodiment having one or more features of the system described in any of the preceding paragraphs, the processor is configured to determine which of the plurality of predetermined problems are most likely to occur based on at least one of the duration, start time, or completion time of the future shipment.

[0022] In an example embodiment having one or more features of the system described in any of the preceding paragraphs, the container used for at least some of the shipments is a temperature-controlled container; the plurality of determined characteristics include a temperature within the temperature-controlled container during the at least some of the shipments; and the predetermined question includes at least one question based on the temperature within the temperature-controlled container.

[0023] In an example embodiment having one or more features of the system of any of the preceding paragraphs, the processor is configured to determine the probability of each identified problem based on a plurality of combinations of: a respective carrier among the carriers, a respective origin among the origins, a respective destination among the destinations, a respective distance among the expected distances, a respective number of stops among the expected number of stops, and a respective duration among the durations.

[0024] In an example embodiment having one or more features of the system described in any of the preceding paragraphs, the processor is configured to determine the probability of each identified problem based on all combinations of: the carrier, the origin, the destination, the expected distance, the expected number of stops, and the duration.

[0025] The various features and advantages of at least one disclosed example embodiment will become apparent to those skilled in the art from the following detailed description.The drawings accompanying the detailed description can be briefly described as follows. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0026] Figure 1 The figure schematically shows a system designed according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0027] Figure 2 is a flowchart outlining an example method designed according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0028] Embodiments of the present invention provide information about a supply chain including multiple shippers and various shipments.Embodiments of the present invention allow the most significant or highest impact problems that may affect potential shipments to be identified based on information about previous shipments and the probability that such problems may occur.

[0029] Figure 1 A system 20 for analyzing a supply chain is schematically shown. A processor 22 comprises one or more computing devices that are configured, for example, through programming, to perform analysis regarding multiple carriers or shipping companies and various shipments. A database 24 is associated with the processor 22. The database 24 includes information regarding the characteristics of previous shipments and the results of the analysis performed by the processor 22.

[0030] like Figure 1 As schematically shown in FIG, processor 22 collects information about shipments completed by a carrier using a vehicle 26, which for discussion purposes is shown as a truck. Each shipment includes cargo within at least one shipping container 28 (e.g., a truck trailer). In some cases, shipping container 28 is a temperature-controlled container that includes a refrigeration unit (not shown) for maintaining a desired temperature within container 28, thereby creating desired conditions for the cargo within container 28.

[0031] Figure 2 30 is a flowchart outlining an example technique for analyzing a supply chain. At 32, processor 22 determines a plurality of characteristics of each shipment in a plurality of shipments. The characteristics of each shipment include an identification of at least one carrier that completed the shipment. In this example, the supply chain includes a plurality of known shippers, and processor 22 obtains information about a particular shipper in one of several ways. For example, communications between processor 22 and vehicle 26 may include a vehicle or shipper identifier. Alternatively, processor 22 is provided with information about the shipment plan that includes an identifier for a corresponding carrier for each shipment.

[0032] The characteristics of each shipment also include an indication of the cargo within the shipment's shipping container 28. In some cases, the cargo has specific requirements during shipment, and the determined characteristics relate to or indicate the performance or condition of the shipping container 28 during such shipment. For example, when the cargo must be refrigerated, the determined characteristics include temperature information about the interior of the shipping container 28 at various times during the shipment.

[0033] The characteristics determined for each shipment at 32 include the shipment's origin and destination, the distance traveled between the origin and destination during the shipment, and the number of stops between the origin and destination. The determined characteristics also include the duration or elapsed time between the shipment's start time and completion time.

[0034] Other determined characteristics indicate or relate to the performance or condition of shipping container 28. Such characteristics include, for example, pre-cooling parameters and the time period or number of times the shipping container is opened from the time the cargo has been placed in the container until the time the cargo has been removed at the destination.

[0035] At step 34, processor 22 determines whether any characteristics of each shipment in the shipment indicate or correspond to an identified issue (which is one of a plurality of predetermined issues). For example, database 24 includes a list of a plurality of predetermined potential issues that could affect a shipment. Examples of such issues include route distances that differ from the expected distance, delays in shipments, a number of stops that differ from the expected number for a particular shipment, delays or damage occurring at a particular origin or destination location, and a difference between the temperature within shipping container 28 and the expected temperature for a particular shipment during shipment. The determination at step 34 correlates a particular characteristic with a particular issue. For example, the number of times a shipping container has been opened may correlate with issues related to potential theft or inefficient performance of the refrigeration system. The number of stops or the duration between the start and completion of a shipment may correlate with issues related to shipment delays. Processor 22 is programmed or otherwise configured to identify when one of the predetermined issues occurred during a shipment based on the relevant or corresponding characteristics of the shipment.

[0036] Each time processor 22 identifies that one of the problems occurred or is implied during a shipment, processor 22 determines a probability that the identified problem will occur in a future shipment at 36. Determining the probability at 36 is based on information about the determined characteristics from the shipment that includes the identified problem and information about corresponding characteristics of other shipments in the plurality of shipments whose characteristics are stored in database 24.

[0037] In an example embodiment, determining the probability of each identified problem is based on a combination of characteristics of the shipment that included the identified problem and characteristics of other shipments that include the same characteristics that indicate or correspond to the identified problem.

[0038] For example, the processor 22 may determine that a particular shipment took longer than expected. By comparing other shipments between the same origin and destination, the processor 22 is able to make a determination about the probability that future shipments between that origin and destination will involve a delay. This determination may be specific to each carrier within the supply chain. For example, the processor may determine the probability that any or each carrier will experience such a delay. If the delay for a particular shipment is an anomaly compared to all other similar shipments recorded in the database 24, the likelihood of a delay for future shipments is relatively low. On the other hand, if the processor 22 determines that one or more of the carriers have experienced the same or similar delays on multiple shipments between the same origin and destination, the processor determines a higher probability that such a delay will occur on future shipments.

[0039] Figure 2 One aspect of the probability determination at 36 is that processor 22 considers various characteristics that may affect a particular problem. For example, even if the origin and destination locations are the same, the route taken by one carrier may differ from the route taken by another carrier. It is also possible that the receiving company at the destination location may introduce delays that are beyond the shipper's control. The specific cargo or cargo volume may also have an impact on whether a delay occurs. Processor 22 is programmed to consider various different influences on the outcome of a shipment when determining the probability that a problem will occur during a future shipment.

[0040] According to an example embodiment, processor 22 determines the probability P of a problem occurring based on the combination of problems that may be experienced. R The probability P R It can be determined according to the following equation.

[0041]

[0042]

[0043] Where: P o is the general probability of a variable such as weather indication, ambient temperature or product condition;

[0044] ω is the weight assigned to the problem;

[0045] F m is the probability function of the combination of problems;

[0046] n is the total shipments for each combination in the problem; and

[0047] m is the total problems experienced for the analysis group, which can be a select or the entire supply chain (where m has repeated problems based on different grouping criteria, such as cooling problems per product, cooling problems per carrier, or generally cooling problems with different weights).

[0048] At 38, processor 22 determines which of the problems are most likely to occur during future shipments based on the probabilities of the different identified problems from the shipments stored in database 24. Processor 22 does this by analyzing multiple combinations of various characteristics of the shipments. For example, processor 22 may consider all carriers combined with all origin and destination locations, all shipped products, and all start and end times of the shipments. In some embodiments, processor 22 analyzes all possible combinations of all characteristics from shipments determined to have at least some common characteristics. As a result of the determination at 38, processor 22 provides an output indicating which problems are most likely to occur. Such information allows vendors or other customers of the shipping company to select the best performing option for their situation.

[0049] Such information is useful not only to the shipping company's vendors or customers, but also to the shipping company itself in identifying problems or weaknesses within the supply chain so that corrective action can be taken if necessary or desired.

[0050] Example embodiments include outputs that provide information indicating information such as which carriers have the highest probability of taking longer routes, which origin locations have a high probability of having pre-cooling issues, which destination locations have a high probability of having temperature-related arrival spikes, which origin locations have a high probability of delayed shipments, and which carriers have a high probability of having a greater than average number of stops. Other or different information is included in the output of some embodiments. In some embodiments, the output from processor 22 includes probabilistic information about combinations of characteristics, such as which combinations of carriers, origins, and destinations have a high probability of having one or more issues.

[0051] Some embodiments include not only determining which of the problems is most likely to occur for each of a plurality of carriers, but also determining which of the carriers is most likely to experience at least one of the predetermined problems. Similarly, some embodiments include determining which of the predetermined problems is most likely to occur for each origin location and each destination, along with determining which of the origins and which of the destinations is most likely to be associated with at least one of the predetermined problems.

[0052] The foregoing description is illustrative and non-restrictive in nature. Variations and modifications to the disclosed examples may become apparent to those skilled in the art that do not necessarily depart from the spirit of the invention. The scope of legal protection granted to this invention can only be determined by studying the appended claims.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing a supply chain, the method comprising: Determining a plurality of characteristics of each shipment in a plurality of shipments, wherein the characteristics of each shipment include an identification of at least one carrier from a plurality of known carriers, an indication of the contents of at least one shipping container, the origin and destination of the shipment in question, the distance traveled between the origin and the destination, the number of stops between the stated origin and the stated destination, the duration between the start and completion times of the shipment, and at least one other characteristic indicative of performance or condition of said at least one container during said shipment; for each of the shipments, determining whether any of the characteristics indicates or corresponds to an identified problem, the identified problem being one of a plurality of predetermined problems; determining, for each identified problem, a probability that the identified problem will occur on a future shipment based on information about the determined characteristic of at least one shipment from the shipments and information about corresponding characteristics of other shipments from the plurality of shipments by analyzing a plurality of combinations of a corresponding carrier from the carriers, a corresponding origin from the origins, a corresponding destination from the destinations, a corresponding distance from the expected distances, a corresponding number of stops from the expected number of stops, and a corresponding duration from the durations, at least one of the shipments including the identified problem; as well as determining which of the plurality of predetermined problems are most likely to occur during a future shipment based on the determined probabilities, wherein containers used for at least some of the shipments are temperature-controlled containers, the plurality of determined characteristics include a temperature within the temperature-controlled containers during the shipments, and the predetermined questions include at least one question based on the temperature within the temperature-controlled containers, Wherein determining the probability of each identified problem is based on a combination of characteristics of the shipment in the plurality of shipments that included the identified problem and characteristics of other shipments in the plurality of shipments that include the same characteristics that are indicative of or correspond to the identified problem. 2 . The method of claim 1 , comprising determining which of the plurality of predetermined problems are most likely to occur for each of the origins and each of the destinations. 3 . The method of claim 2 , comprising determining which of the origins and which of the destinations is most likely associated with at least one of the predetermined issues. 4 . The method of claim 1 , comprising determining which of the plurality of predetermined problems are most likely to occur for each of the plurality of carriers.

5. The method of claim 4, comprising determining which of the plurality of carriers is most likely to experience at least one of the predetermined issues.

6. The method of claim 1 , comprising determining which of the plurality of predetermined problems are most likely to occur based on at least one of a duration, a start time, or a completion time of the future shipment.

7. The method according to claim 1, wherein The probability of each identified problem is determined based on all combinations of: the carrier, the origin, the destination, the expected distance, the expected number of stops, and the duration.

8. A system for analyzing a supply chain including a plurality of carriers that respectively fulfill a plurality of shipments, the system comprising a processor and a database associated with the processor, the processor configured to: Determining a plurality of characteristics of each shipment in the plurality of shipments, wherein the characteristics of each shipment include: an identification of at least one of said carriers that completed said shipment, an indication of the contents of at least one shipping container during said shipment, the origin and destination of the shipment in question, the distance traveled between the origin and the destination, the number of stops between the stated origin and the stated destination, the duration between the start and completion times of the shipment, and at least one other characteristic indicative of performance or condition of said at least one container during said shipment; providing the determined characteristics of each trip to the database, wherein the database stores the determined characteristics; for each of the shipments, determining whether any of the characteristics indicates or corresponds to an identified problem, the identified problem being one of a plurality of predetermined problems; determining, for each identified problem, a probability that the identified problem will occur on a future shipment by analyzing a plurality of combinations of a corresponding carrier among the carriers, a corresponding origin among the origins, a corresponding destination among the destinations, a corresponding distance among the expected distances, a corresponding number of stops among the expected number of stops, and a corresponding duration among the durations based on information from the database regarding the determined characteristic of at least one of the shipments and information from the database regarding corresponding characteristics of other shipments among the plurality of shipments, at least one of the shipments including the identified problem; providing the determined probabilities to the database, wherein the database stores the determined probabilities; as well as determining which of the plurality of predetermined problems are most likely to occur during a future shipment based on the determined probabilities, wherein containers used for at least some of the shipments are temperature-controlled containers, the plurality of determined characteristics include a temperature within the temperature-controlled containers during the shipments, and the predetermined questions include at least one question based on the temperature within the temperature-controlled containers, Wherein determining the probability of each identified problem is based on a combination of characteristics of the shipment in the plurality of shipments that included the identified problem and characteristics of other shipments in the plurality of shipments that include the same characteristics that are indicative of or correspond to the identified problem.

9. The system according to claim 8, wherein: The processor is configured to determine which questions of the plurality of predetermined questions are most likely to occur for each of the origins and each of the destinations.

10. The system according to claim 9, wherein: The processor is configured to determine which of the origins and which of the destinations is most likely associated with at least one of the predetermined questions.

11. The system according to claim 8, wherein The processor is configured to determine which of the plurality of predetermined problems are most likely to occur for each of the plurality of carriers.

12. The system according to claim 11, wherein The processor is configured to determine which carrier of the plurality of carriers is most likely to experience at least one of the predetermined issues.

13. The system according to claim 8, wherein: The processor is configured to determine which of the plurality of predetermined problems are most likely to occur based on at least one of a duration, a start time, or a completion time of the future shipment.

14. The system according to claim 8, wherein The processor is configured to determine a probability of each identified problem based on all combinations of: the carrier, the origin, the destination, the expected distance, the expected number of stops, and the duration.

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