OPGW optical cable life assessment method, system, equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The present invention belongs to the field of power systems, and discloses a life assessment method, system, device and storage medium for an OPGW optical cable, comprising the following steps: obtaining optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable; obtaining the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable and the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable through a preset optical path loss variation likelihood function according to the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable; obtaining the life assessment result of the OPGW optical cable through a preset life distribution function according to the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable, wherein the optical path loss variation likelihood function and the life distribution function are both obtained by taking the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable as the degradation amount and equating the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable to a Wiener process. The refined management of the OPGW optical cable can be realized, and the management cost can be reduced. At the same time, in the whole process, only the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable needs to be obtained, the data acquisition cost is low, and the data source is complete and rich.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the field of electric power systems and relates to a life assessment method, system, equipment and storage medium for an OPGW optical cable. Background Art

[0002] OPGW (optical fiber composite overhead ground wire) cable places optical fiber in the ground wire of overhead high-voltage transmission lines to form an optical fiber communication network on the transmission line. This structural form has both ground wire and communication functions, called OPGW cable, which is widely used in power systems to carry signal transmission services of power communication networks. When working, OPGW cables are often in complex and harsh environments, subject to the impact of meteorological disasters such as ice, lightning, strong winds, heavy rain and high temperatures, and have become a weak link in the transmission network. The health of the OPGW cable operation is directly related to the communication security of the power system. With the increasing number of overhead transmission lines such as ultra-high voltage, long distance and important spans, the safety of OPGW cables in complex environments has become increasingly prominent.

[0003] The life of OPGW optical cables is related to the cable's material, structure, line conditions, natural environment, construction method, and whether there is lightning strike. The life of OPGW optical cables that have been in operation for more than 15 years varies greatly. Some have been retired after being struck by lightning and broken, some are in good condition and can continue to operate, and some are in poor condition and need life assessment. If a one-size-fits-all approach is adopted to overhaul or retire OPGW optical cables, it will cause huge economic losses. Therefore, life assessment of OPGW optical cables helps to improve the refined management of optical cables and provide corresponding technical support for the full life cycle management of OPGW optical cables.

[0004] The life assessment of existing OPGW optical cables is mainly carried out by detecting the strain of the optical fiber in the OPGW optical cable, and the remaining life of the OPGW optical cable is obtained based on the current strain value and the optical fiber life assessment model. However, due to the excess length of the optical fiber in the OPGW optical cable, it is difficult to judge the strain change of the optical fiber without factory strain data. At the same time, optical fiber distributed strain testing equipment, such as BOTDA and BOTDR, is expensive and not widely used in front-line operation and maintenance, and there is insufficient historical data on optical fiber strain. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the above-mentioned shortcomings of the prior art and provide a method, system, device and storage medium for evaluating the life of an OPGW optical cable.

[0006] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0007] In a first aspect of the present invention, a method for evaluating the life of an OPGW optical cable comprises the following steps:

[0008] Obtain the optical path loss data of OPGW optical cable;

[0009] According to the optical path loss data of OPGW optical cable, the failure threshold of OPGW optical cable and the expectation and variance of OPGW optical cable life are obtained through the preset optical path loss variation likelihood function;

[0010] According to the expectation and variance of the OPGW optical cable life, the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable is obtained through the preset life distribution function;

[0011] Among them, the optical path loss variation likelihood function and the lifetime distribution function are obtained by taking the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable as the degradation amount and equating the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable to a Wiener process.

[0012] The life evaluation method of the OPGW optical cable of the present invention is further improved in that:

[0013] The optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable is obtained by performing an optical path loss test on each fiber core in the OPGW optical cable using an optical time domain analyzer.

[0014] The optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable includes a plurality of optical path loss data of each fiber core in the OPGW optical cable; the specific method of obtaining the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable according to the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable through a preset optical path loss variation likelihood function is as follows: according to the plurality of optical path loss data of each fiber core, a plurality of optical path loss variations of each fiber core are obtained, wherein the optical path loss variation is the difference between the optical path loss at the current moment and the previous moment; the plurality of optical path loss variations of each fiber core are respectively fitted into a plurality of normally distributed optical path loss variations; The optical path loss variation function of each fiber core is obtained by averaging the optical path loss variation function of each fiber core to obtain the optical path loss variation function of the OPGW optical cable with normal distribution; the optical path loss variation mean and the optical path loss variation variance of the OPGW optical cable are obtained according to the optical path loss variation function of the OPGW optical cable with normal distribution; the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable is obtained through a preset optical path loss variation likelihood function according to the optical path loss variation mean and the optical path loss variation variance of the OPGW optical cable.

[0015] The specific method for obtaining the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable according to the mean value and variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable and the preset optical path loss variation likelihood function is as follows:

[0016] The mean and variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable are calculated through the optical path loss variation likelihood function of the following formula: Get the likelihood function value of the optical path loss change:

[0017]

[0018] Where μ is the mean change in optical path loss of the OPGW optical cable, σ 2 is the variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable, n is the total number of optical path loss variations of the OPGW optical cable, Δx i is the optical path loss change of the i-th OPGW optical cable, Δt i is the time interval corresponding to the optical path loss change of the i-th OPGW optical cable; the optical path loss change of the OPGW optical cable is the average value of the optical path loss change of each fiber core at the same time;

[0019] The logarithm of the likelihood function value of the optical path loss variation is obtained to obtain the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable.

[0020] The specific method for obtaining the expectation and variance of the OPGW optical cable life is as follows: According to the failure threshold Df of the OPGW optical cable, the expectation of the OPGW optical cable life is obtained by the following formula:

[0021]

[0022] The variance of OPGW cable life is obtained by the following formula:

[0023]

[0024] The specific method for obtaining the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable according to the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable through a preset life distribution function is:

[0025] According to the expectation and variance of the OPGW optical cable life, the preset life distribution function F(t) is solved to obtain the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable; where:

[0026]

[0027] Where Φ is the normal distribution function and t is time.

[0028] The method also includes: obtaining, according to the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable, the minimum time t when the life distribution function F(t) is equal to 1, obtaining the working life of the OPGW optical cable, obtaining the working life of the OPGW optical cable, and subtracting the working life of the OPGW optical cable from the working life of the OPGW optical cable to obtain the remaining life of the OPGW optical cable.

[0029] A second aspect of the present invention is a life assessment system for an OPGW optical cable, comprising:

[0030] An acquisition module is used to obtain optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable;

[0031] A parameter module is used to obtain the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable and the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable according to the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable through a preset optical path loss variation likelihood function;

[0032] An evaluation module, used to obtain the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable according to the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable through a preset life distribution function;

[0033] Among them, the optical path loss variation likelihood function and the lifetime distribution function are obtained by taking the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable as the degradation amount and equating the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable to a Wiener process.

[0034] The life evaluation system of the OPGW optical cable of the present invention is further improved in that:

[0035] The optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable includes a number of optical path loss data of each fiber core in the OPGW optical cable; the parameter module includes:

[0036] The fiber core data module is used to obtain a number of optical path loss changes of each fiber core according to a number of optical path loss data of each fiber core, wherein the optical path loss change is the difference between the optical path loss at a current moment and the optical path loss at a previous moment;

[0037] A function determination module is used to fit a number of optical path loss variation amounts of each fiber core to a number of normally distributed optical path loss variation amount functions, respectively, to obtain the normally distributed optical path loss variation amount function of each fiber core, and to average the normally distributed optical path loss variation amount function of each fiber core to obtain the normally distributed optical path loss variation amount function of the OPGW optical cable;

[0038] The optical cable data module is used to obtain the optical path loss variation mean and the optical path loss variation variance of the OPGW optical cable according to the optical path loss variation function of the normal distribution of the OPGW optical cable;

[0039] The threshold determination module is used to obtain the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable according to the mean value and variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable through a preset optical path loss variation likelihood function.

[0040] The threshold determination module comprises:

[0041] The likelihood function value calculation module is used to calculate the mean value and variance of the optical path loss change of the OPGW optical cable through the optical path loss change likelihood function of the following formula: Get the likelihood function value of the optical path loss change:

[0042]

[0043] Where μ is the mean change in optical path loss of the OPGW optical cable, σ 2 is the variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable, n is the total number of optical path loss variations of the OPGW optical cable, Δx i is the optical path loss change of the i-th OPGW optical cable, Δt i is the time interval corresponding to the optical path loss change of the i-th OPGW optical cable; the optical path loss change of the OPGW optical cable is the average value of the optical path loss change of each fiber core at the same time;

[0044] The threshold calculation module is used to obtain the logarithm of the likelihood function value of the optical path loss change amount to obtain the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable.

[0045] The parameter module also includes:

[0046] The expected determination module is used to obtain the expected life of the OPGW optical cable according to the failure threshold Df of the OPGW optical cable through the following formula:

[0047]

[0048] The variance determination module is used to obtain the variance of the OPGW optical cable life by the following formula:

[0049]

[0050] The evaluation module is used to solve the preset life distribution function F(t) according to the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable to obtain the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable; wherein:

[0051]

[0052] Where Φ is the normal distribution function and t is time.

[0053] It also includes: a remaining life determination module, which is used to obtain the minimum time t when the life distribution function F(t) is equal to 1 according to the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable, obtain the working life of the OPGW optical cable, obtain the working life of the OPGW optical cable, and subtract the working life of the OPGW optical cable from the working life of the OPGW optical cable to obtain the remaining life of the OPGW optical cable.

[0054] In a third aspect of the present invention, a computer device comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the steps of the above-mentioned OPGW optical cable life assessment method when executing the computer program.

[0055] A fourth aspect of the present invention is a computer-readable storage medium, wherein the computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the above-mentioned method for evaluating the life of an OPGW optical cable are implemented.

[0056] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0057] The life evaluation method of the OPGW optical cable of the present invention obtains the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable, and then uses the optical path loss change likelihood function obtained by taking the optical path loss change as the degradation amount and equating the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable to the Wiener process to calculate the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable and the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable. Then, the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable is obtained by taking the optical path loss change as the degradation amount and equating the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable to the Wiener process. According to the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable, the refined management of the OPGW optical cable can be realized and the management cost can be reduced. At the same time, in the whole process, only the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable needs to be obtained, and the data acquisition cost is low, thereby reducing the cost of the life evaluation of the entire OPGW optical cable. In addition, the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable is commonly obtained in practical use. Therefore, most of the OPGW optical cables have recorded optical path loss data, and the data source is complete and rich. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0058] Figure 1 A flowchart of a method for evaluating the life of an OPGW optical cable of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 2 The structure diagram of the life evaluation system of the OPGW optical cable of the present invention is shown in FIG. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0060] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the scheme of the present invention, the technical scheme in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0061] It should be noted that the terms "first", "second", etc. in the specification and claims of the present invention and the above-mentioned drawings are used to distinguish similar objects, and are not necessarily used to describe a specific order or sequence. It should be understood that the data used in this way can be interchanged where appropriate, so that the embodiments of the present invention described herein can be implemented in an order other than those illustrated or described herein. In addition, the terms "including" and "having" and any variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions, for example, a process, method, system, product or device that includes a series of steps or units is not necessarily limited to those steps or units that are clearly listed, but may include other steps or units that are not clearly listed or inherent to these processes, methods, products or devices.

[0062] The present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings:

[0063] See also Figure 1 In one embodiment of the present invention, a method for evaluating the life of an OPGW optical cable is provided. The optical path loss is used as the degradation amount, the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable is equivalent to a Wiener process, and the life distribution function of the OPGW optical cable is established through the Wiener process, thereby realizing the life evaluation of the OPGW optical cable.

[0064] Specifically, the life assessment method of the OPGW optical cable comprises the following steps:

[0065] S1: Obtain the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable.

[0066] Specifically, in this embodiment, an optical time domain analyzer is used to test the optical path loss of each fiber core in the OPGW optical cable, thereby obtaining the optical path loss data of each fiber core in the OPGW optical cable as a data source for the life assessment of the OPGW optical cable. Among them, the optical time domain analyzer (Optical Time Domain Reflectometer, OTDR) obtains attenuation information by using the backscattered light generated when light propagates in the optical fiber, and can be used to measure optical fiber attenuation, joint loss, optical fiber fault point location, and understand the loss distribution along the length of the optical fiber.

[0067] See Table 1, which is a specific optical path loss data record table of an OPGW optical cable. Ten optical cores are arranged in the OPGW optical cable. The optical path loss of each optical core is tested in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 at a time interval of one year.

[0068] Table 1 Optical path loss data record table

[0069]

[0070]

[0071] S2: According to the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable, the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable and the expectation and variance of the OPGW optical cable life are obtained through the preset optical path loss variation likelihood function.

[0072] Specifically, the specific method of obtaining the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable according to the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable through a preset optical path loss variation likelihood function is as follows: according to a number of optical path loss data of each fiber core, obtain a number of optical path loss variations of each fiber core, wherein the optical path loss variation is the difference between the optical path loss at a current moment and a previous moment; fit the several optical path loss variations of each fiber core to a number of normally distributed optical path loss variation functions, respectively, to obtain the normally distributed optical path loss variation function of each fiber core, and average the normally distributed optical path loss variation functions of each fiber core to obtain the normally distributed optical path loss variation function of the OPGW optical cable; according to the normally distributed optical path loss variation function of the OPGW optical cable, obtain the optical path loss variation mean and the optical path loss variation variance of the OPGW optical cable; according to the optical path loss variation mean and the optical path loss variation variance of the OPGW optical cable, obtain the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable through a preset optical path loss variation likelihood function.

[0073] Among them, when fitting the optical path loss changes of several fiber cores, it is necessary to correct the obviously abnormal optical path loss changes, such as modifying the current value to a reasonable range, to ensure the accuracy of the fitting results. At the same time, by averaging the normally distributed optical path loss change function of each fiber core, the normally distributed optical path loss change function of the OPGW optical cable is obtained, which effectively improves the effectiveness of the life assessment of the OPGW optical cable and prevents the large error of the optical path loss data of a single fiber core from having a significant impact on the life assessment results.

[0074] First of all, regarding product degradation, the performance of the product degrades due to its use. The external cause is the effect of energy, and the internal cause is the irreversible change in the material performance and state, which is a cumulative failure. As time goes on, the damage continues to accumulate, the technical characteristics of the product continue to degrade, and when the damage reaches a certain limit value, the product will fail. Therefore, the possibility of product failure is related to the approach of the parameters to the limit state, and the approach of the product output parameters to its limit state is usually an evolutionary process. Due to many random factors such as the product working environment, stress, and internal material properties, the evolution process is generally a random process. The performance degradation of the product is caused by the continuous accumulation of damage inside the product. Depending on the damage process, the performance degradation process may be discrete, continuous, or both. Therefore, using a random process for degradation modeling will be more in line with engineering practice, that is, the Wiener process.

[0075] The Wiener process is used to describe a random process with stable independent increments, and its degradation and increments follow a normal distribution. During the use of OPGW optical cables, some performance parameters degrade, and these degradations are caused by the superposition of a large number of influencing factors. According to the central limit theorem, it is reasonable to believe that some performance parameters of OPGW optical cables, such as the change in optical path loss, can be approximately described by a normal distribution. Due to its simple structure and relatively rich research results, the Wiener process has become the most widely used method in degradation process modeling. The Wiener process is convenient for analyzing and calculating product life and reliability, can describe the time uncertainty of the product degradation process, and is relatively easy to handle and measure data with errors.

[0076] Based on this, in this embodiment, by taking the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable as the degradation amount, the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable is equivalent to the Wiener process, and then the optical path loss variation likelihood function is obtained.

[0077] Specifically, since the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable is equivalent to a Wiener process, it is assumed that the optical path loss variation obeys a normal distribution, and the optical path loss variation likelihood function L(μ,σ 2 ) is shown in formula (1):

[0078]

[0079] Where μ is the mean change in optical path loss of the OPGW optical cable, σ 2 is the variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable, n is the total number of optical path loss variations of the OPGW optical cable, Δx i is the optical path loss change of the i-th OPGW optical cable, Δt i is the time interval corresponding to the change in optical path loss of the i-th OPGW optical cable, and the corresponding time interval refers to the test time interval between two optical path losses in the change in optical path loss; the change in optical path loss of the OPGW optical cable is the average value of the change in optical path loss of each fiber core at the same time.

[0080] Specifically, according to the mean value and variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable, the specific method for obtaining the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable through the preset optical path loss variation likelihood function is as follows: the mean value and variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable are substituted into the optical path loss variation likelihood function to obtain the optical path loss variation likelihood function value, and the logarithm of the optical path loss variation likelihood function value is obtained through formula (2) to obtain the failure threshold Df of the OPGW optical cable:

[0081]

[0082] On the basis of obtaining the failure threshold Df of the OPGW optical cable, combined with the mean value of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable and the variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable, the expected life of the OPGW optical cable is obtained by formula (3): The variance of OPGW optical cable life is obtained by formula (4):

[0083]

[0084]

[0085] S3: According to the expectation and variance of the OPGW optical cable life, the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable is obtained through a preset life distribution function.

[0086] The preset lifetime distribution function is obtained by taking the optical path loss change of the OPGW optical cable as the degradation amount and equating the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable to a Wiener process.

[0087] Specifically, after the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable is equivalent to the Wiener process, the distribution of the life span T of the OPGW optical cable is an inverse Gaussian distribution, and the life span distribution function is shown in formula (5):

[0088]

[0089] Combining the above equations (3) and (4), the life distribution function is transformed into equation (6):

[0090]

[0091] The specific method of obtaining the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable according to the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable through the preset life distribution function is: according to the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable, solve the preset life distribution function F(t) to obtain the life distribution of the OPGW optical cable, that is, the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable. Among them, the meaning represented by the life distribution function value is the probability of the life of the OPGW optical cable within the time of 0 to t, and the life of the OPGW optical cable is characterized according to the data.

[0092] In summary, the life assessment method of the OPGW optical cable of the present invention obtains the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable, and then uses the optical path loss change likelihood function obtained by taking the optical path loss change as the degradation amount and equating the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable to the Wiener process to calculate the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable and the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable. Then, the life assessment result of the OPGW optical cable is obtained by taking the optical path loss change as the degradation amount and equating the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable to the Wiener process. According to the life assessment result of the OPGW optical cable, the refined management of the OPGW optical cable can be realized and the management cost can be reduced. At the same time, in the whole process, only the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable needs to be obtained, and the data acquisition cost is low, thereby reducing the cost of the life assessment of the entire OPGW optical cable. In addition, the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable is commonly obtained in practical use, and most OPGW optical cables record optical path loss data, and the data source is complete and rich.

[0093] In yet another embodiment of the present invention, a method for evaluating the life of an OPGW optical cable is provided. In addition to all the contents of the above embodiments, the method for evaluating the life of an OPGW optical cable further includes the following steps:

[0094] According to the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable, the minimum time t when the life distribution function F(t) is equal to 1 is obtained, the working life of the OPGW optical cable is obtained, the working life of the OPGW optical cable is obtained, and the working life of the OPGW optical cable is subtracted from the working life of the OPGW optical cable to obtain the remaining life of the OPGW optical cable.

[0095] In the above process, the time when the optical path loss first reaches the failure threshold is taken as the working life of the OPGW optical cable, and then combined with the working life of the OPGW optical cable, the remaining life of the OPGW optical cable is obtained. This result can guide the maintenance or retirement of the OPGW optical cable and realize the refined management of the OPGW optical cable.

[0096] The following are device embodiments of the present invention, which can be used to perform method embodiments of the present invention. For details not disclosed in the device embodiments, please refer to the method embodiments of the present invention.

[0097] See also Figure 2 In another embodiment of the present invention, a life assessment system for an OPGW optical cable is provided, which can be used to implement the above-mentioned life assessment method for an OPGW optical cable. Specifically, the life assessment system for an OPGW optical cable includes an acquisition module, a parameter module and an assessment module.

[0098] The acquisition module is used to acquire the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable; the parameter module is used to obtain the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable and the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable through a preset optical path loss variation likelihood function according to the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable; the evaluation module is used to obtain the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable through a preset life distribution function according to the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable; wherein, the optical path loss variation likelihood function and the life distribution function are both obtained by taking the optical path loss variation as the degradation amount and equating the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable to a Wiener process.

[0099] Preferably, the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable can be obtained by performing an optical path loss test on each fiber core in the OPGW optical cable using an optical time domain analyzer.

[0100] Preferably, the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable includes a number of optical path loss data of each fiber core in the OPGW optical cable; the parameter module includes a fiber core data module, a function determination module, an optical cable data module and a threshold determination module.

[0101] Among them, the fiber core data module is used to obtain several optical path loss changes of each fiber core according to several optical path loss data of each fiber core, wherein the optical path loss change is the difference between the optical path loss at the current moment and the previous moment; the function determination module is used to fit several optical path loss changes of each fiber core into several normally distributed optical path loss change functions, obtain the normally distributed optical path loss change function of each fiber core, and average the normally distributed optical path loss change function of each fiber core to obtain the normally distributed optical path loss change function of the OPGW optical cable; the optical cable data module is used to obtain the optical path loss change mean and the optical path loss change variance of the OPGW optical cable according to the normally distributed optical path loss change function of the OPGW optical cable; the threshold determination module is used to obtain the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable according to the optical path loss change mean and the optical path loss change variance of the OPGW optical cable through a preset optical path loss change likelihood function.

[0102] Preferably, the threshold determination module includes a likelihood function value calculation module and a threshold calculation module.

[0103] Among them, the likelihood function value calculation module is used to convert the mean value and variance of the optical path loss change of the OPGW optical cable into the optical path loss change likelihood function L(μ,σ 2 ), and obtain the likelihood function value of the optical path loss change:

[0104]

[0105] Where μ is the mean change in optical path loss of the OPGW optical cable, σ2 is the variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable, n is the total number of optical path loss variations of the OPGW optical cable, Δx i is the optical path loss change of the i-th OPGW optical cable, Δt i is the time interval corresponding to the change in optical path loss of the i-th OPGW optical cable; the change in optical path loss of the OPGW optical cable is the average value of the change in optical path loss of each fiber core at the same moment.

[0106] The threshold calculation module is used to obtain the logarithm of the likelihood function value of the optical path loss change amount and obtain the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable.

[0107] Preferably, the parameter module further includes an expectation determination module and a variance determination module.

[0108] The expected determination module is used to obtain the expected life of the OPGW optical cable according to the failure threshold Df of the OPGW optical cable through formula (3):

[0109]

[0110] The variance determination module is used to obtain the variance of OPGW optical cable life through formula (4):

[0111]

[0112] Preferably, the evaluation module is used to solve a preset life distribution function F(t) according to the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable to obtain the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable; wherein:

[0113]

[0114] Where Φ is the normal distribution function and t is time.

[0115] Preferably, the life assessment system of the OPGW optical cable also includes a remaining life determination module, which is used to obtain the minimum time t when the life distribution function F(t) is equal to 1 based on the life assessment result of the OPGW optical cable, obtain the working life of the OPGW optical cable, obtain the working life of the OPGW optical cable, and subtract the working life of the OPGW optical cable from the working life of the OPGW optical cable to obtain the remaining life of the OPGW optical cable.

[0116] In another embodiment of the present invention, a computer device is provided, the computer device includes a processor and a memory, the memory is used to store a computer program, the computer program includes program instructions, and the processor is used to execute the program instructions stored in the computer storage medium. The processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gates or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. It is the computing core and control core of the terminal, which is suitable for implementing one or more instructions, and is specifically suitable for loading and executing one or more instructions in the computer storage medium to implement the corresponding method flow or corresponding function; the processor described in the embodiment of the present invention can be used for the operation of the life assessment method of the OPGW optical cable.

[0117] In another embodiment of the present invention, the present invention further provides a storage medium, specifically a computer-readable storage medium (Memory), which is a memory device in a computer device for storing programs and data. It is understandable that the computer-readable storage medium here can include both the built-in storage medium in the computer device and the extended storage medium supported by the computer device. The computer-readable storage medium provides a storage space, which stores the operating system of the terminal. In addition, one or more instructions suitable for being loaded and executed by the processor are also stored in the storage space, and these instructions can be one or more computer programs (including program codes). It should be noted that the computer-readable storage medium here can be a high-speed RAM memory or a non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk memory. The processor can load and execute one or more instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium to implement the corresponding steps of the life assessment method of the OPGW optical cable in the above embodiment.

[0118] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention may take the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware. Moreover, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0119] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0120] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0121] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0122] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the relevant field should understand that the specific implementation methods of the present invention can still be modified or replaced by equivalents. Any modification or equivalent replacement that does not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the life of an OPGW optical cable, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Obtain the optical path loss data of OPGW optical cable; According to the optical path loss data of OPGW optical cable, the failure threshold of OPGW optical cable and the expectation and variance of OPGW optical cable life are obtained through the preset optical path loss variation likelihood function; According to the expectation and variance of the OPGW optical cable life, the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable is obtained through the preset life distribution function; Among them, the optical path loss variation likelihood function and the lifetime distribution function are obtained by taking the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable as the degradation amount and equating the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable to the Wiener process; The optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable includes a number of optical path loss data of each fiber core in the OPGW optical cable; the optical path loss change is the difference between the optical path loss at the current moment and the optical path loss at the previous moment.

2. The life evaluation method of OPGW optical cable according to claim 1, characterized in that: The optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable is obtained by performing an optical path loss test on each fiber core in the OPGW optical cable using an optical time domain analyzer.

3. The life evaluation method of OPGW optical cable according to claim 1, characterized in that: The specific method of obtaining the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable according to the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable through a preset optical path loss variation likelihood function is as follows: According to the optical path loss data of each fiber core, the optical path loss variation of each fiber core is obtained; Fitting a number of optical path loss variation amounts of each fiber core to a number of normally distributed optical path loss variation amount functions, respectively, to obtain a normally distributed optical path loss variation amount function of each fiber core, averaging the normally distributed optical path loss variation amount functions of each fiber core, to obtain a normally distributed optical path loss variation amount function of the OPGW optical cable; According to the optical path loss variation function of the OPGW optical cable with normal distribution, the optical path loss variation mean and the optical path loss variation variance of the OPGW optical cable are obtained; According to the mean value and variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable, the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable is obtained through the preset optical path loss variation likelihood function.

4. The method for evaluating the life of an OPGW optical cable according to claim 3, characterized in that: The specific method of obtaining the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable according to the mean value and variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable and the preset optical path loss variation likelihood function is as follows: The mean and variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable are calculated through the optical path loss variation likelihood function of the following formula: L(μ ,σ 2 ) , and obtain the likelihood function value of the optical path loss change: Where μ is the mean change in optical path loss of the OPGW optical cable, σ 2 is the variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable, n is the total number of optical path loss variations of the OPGW optical cable, Δx i is the optical path loss change of the i-th OPGW optical cable, Δt i is the time interval corresponding to the optical path loss change of the i-th OPGW optical cable; the optical path loss change of the OPGW optical cable is the average value of the optical path loss change of each fiber core at the same time; The logarithm of the likelihood function value of the optical path loss variation is obtained to obtain the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable.

5. The method for evaluating the life of an OPGW optical cable according to claim 4, characterized in that: The specific method for obtaining the expectation and variance of the OPGW optical cable life is: According to the failure threshold Df of OPGW optical cable, the expected life of OPGW optical cable is obtained by the following formula: The variance of OPGW cable life is obtained by the following formula:

6. The method for evaluating the life of an OPGW optical cable according to claim 5, characterized in that: The specific method for obtaining the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable according to the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable through a preset life distribution function is: According to the expectation and variance of the OPGW optical cable life, the preset life distribution function F(t) is solved to obtain the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable; where: Where Φ is the normal distribution function and t is time.

7. The method for evaluating the life of an OPGW optical cable according to claim 6, characterized in that: Also includes: According to the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable, the minimum time t when the life distribution function F(t) is equal to 1 is obtained, the working life of the OPGW optical cable is obtained, the working life of the OPGW optical cable is obtained, and the working life of the OPGW optical cable is subtracted from the working life of the OPGW optical cable to obtain the remaining life of the OPGW optical cable.

8. A life assessment system for OPGW optical cables, characterized in that: include: An acquisition module is used to obtain optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable; A parameter module is used to obtain the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable and the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable according to the optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable through a preset optical path loss variation likelihood function; An evaluation module, used to obtain the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable according to the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable through a preset life distribution function; Among them, the optical path loss variation likelihood function and the lifetime distribution function are obtained by taking the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable as the degradation amount and equating the degradation process of the OPGW optical cable to the Wiener process; The optical path loss data of the OPGW optical cable includes a number of optical path loss data of each fiber core in the OPGW optical cable; the optical path loss change is the difference between the optical path loss at the current moment and the optical path loss at the previous moment.

9. The OPGW optical cable life assessment system according to claim 8, characterized in that: The parameter module includes: The fiber core data module is used to obtain a number of optical path loss changes of each fiber core according to a number of optical path loss data of each fiber core; A function determination module is used to fit a number of optical path loss variation amounts of each fiber core to a number of normally distributed optical path loss variation amount functions, respectively, to obtain the normally distributed optical path loss variation amount function of each fiber core, and to average the normally distributed optical path loss variation amount function of each fiber core to obtain the normally distributed optical path loss variation amount function of the OPGW optical cable; The optical cable data module is used to obtain the optical path loss variation mean and the optical path loss variation variance of the OPGW optical cable according to the optical path loss variation function of the normal distribution of the OPGW optical cable; The threshold determination module is used to obtain the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable according to the mean value and variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable through a preset optical path loss variation likelihood function.

10. The OPGW optical cable life assessment system according to claim 9, characterized in that: The threshold determination module comprises: The likelihood function value calculation module is used to calculate the mean value and variance of the optical path loss change of the OPGW optical cable through the optical path loss change likelihood function of the following formula: L( μ,σ 2 ) , and obtain the likelihood function value of the optical path loss change: Where μ is the mean change in optical path loss of the OPGW optical cable, σ 2 is the variance of the optical path loss variation of the OPGW optical cable, n is the total number of optical path loss variations of the OPGW optical cable, Δx i is the optical path loss change of the i-th OPGW optical cable, Δt i is the time interval corresponding to the optical path loss change of the i-th OPGW optical cable; the optical path loss change of the OPGW optical cable is the average value of the optical path loss change of each fiber core at the same time; The threshold calculation module is used to obtain the logarithm of the likelihood function value of the optical path loss change amount to obtain the failure threshold of the OPGW optical cable.

11. The OPGW optical cable life assessment system according to claim 10, characterized in that: The parameter module also includes: The expected determination module is used to obtain the expected life of the OPGW optical cable according to the failure threshold Df of the OPGW optical cable through the following formula: The variance determination module is used to obtain the variance of the OPGW optical cable life by the following formula:

12. The OPGW optical cable life assessment system according to claim 11, characterized in that: The evaluation module is used to solve the preset life distribution function F(t) according to the expectation and variance of the life of the OPGW optical cable to obtain the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable; wherein: Where Φ is the normal distribution function and t is time.

13. The OPGW optical cable life assessment system according to claim 12, characterized in that: Also includes: The remaining life determination module is used to obtain the minimum time t when the life distribution function F(t) is equal to 1 according to the life evaluation result of the OPGW optical cable, obtain the working life of the OPGW optical cable, obtain the working life of the OPGW optical cable, and subtract the working life of the OPGW optical cable from the working life of the OPGW optical cable to obtain the remaining life of the OPGW optical cable.

14. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that: When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the life assessment method of the OPGW optical cable according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

15. A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the life assessment method of the OPGW optical cable according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

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