Underground pipeline risk assessment method and device based on receptor sensitivity

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method and device for evaluating underground pipeline risk based on receptor sensitivity. The method includes: dividing risk units and determining risk factors; constructing a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system to determine the failure possibility level; constructing a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system based on two indicators, namely, medium leakage and emergency disposal, to determine the failure consequence level; dividing the risk receptors around the risk unit into risk receptors of different levels according to the sensitivity of the risk receptors, and using different risk matrices to determine the risk level for risk receptors of different levels. The present invention combines objective data with the current status of pipeline operation, innovates the failure possibility and failure consequence upgrade evaluation mode, and greatly reduces the impact of uneven experience of evaluators on the reliability of results; in addition, the present invention divides risk receptors into levels, uses different risk evaluation matrices to judge risk levels, and improves the accuracy of risk evaluation.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to the field of pipeline risk or safety assessment, and in particular to an underground pipeline risk assessment method and device based on receptor sensitivity. Background Art

[0002] With the development of the pressure pipeline industry, pipelines will inevitably pass through densely populated areas and environmentally sensitive areas. As underground pipelines have the characteristics of wide span, long lines, high pressure, and complex laying environment, they have high requirements for design and construction technology. Most pipelines are buried underground, so the safe operation of underground pipelines is affected by many factors such as third-party damage, corrosion, natural and geological disasters, and design and construction defects. Pipeline media are often flammable, explosive, toxic and harmful. Once the pressure pipeline fails, it is often accompanied by large leakage and pollution, and may even cause fire and explosion, with serious consequences. Therefore, pipeline companies need to continuously identify pipeline risk factors, evaluate risk status, and control risk levels to ensure that pipeline risks are within acceptable levels, reduce and prevent accidents, and achieve safety, reliability and economy of pipeline operation.

[0003] Pipeline risk assessment is to determine the risk level by identifying dangerous and harmful factors that may lead to accidents, using scientific evaluation methods to analyze the possibility of accidents and the severity of damage to personnel, property and the environment after the accidents occur.

[0004] Although there are many risk assessment technologies for underground pipelines at present, the inventors found that there are several problems with the existing risk assessment technologies in theoretical analysis and practical application: First, the technologies currently used are mostly improved Kent scoring methods. The process of factor scoring and weight determination relies on the experience of evaluators and has poor reliability. In addition, the weighted summation of evaluation factors often ignores the objective reality that the risk increases due to sudden changes in individual factors. Second, the diversity of risk factors and the complexity of data make the evaluation process difficult to implement, increasing the workload of grassroots employees. Third, the use of the same evaluation matrix for multiple types and levels of risk receptors lacks specificity, which is not conducive to the dynamic risk assessment of underground pipelines. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of the problems existing in the prior art, an embodiment of the present invention proposes a method and device for underground pipeline risk assessment based on receptor sensitivity.

[0006] Specifically, the embodiment of the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0007] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for underground pipeline risk assessment based on receptor sensitivity, comprising:

[0008] Divide risk units according to different attributes of pipelines;

[0009] Determine risk factors based on risk assessment data and failure history data;

[0010] Based on the risk factors, a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure possibility level;

[0011] According to the two indicators of medium leakage and emergency disposal, a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure consequence level;

[0012] According to the sensitivity of the risk receptors, the risk receptors around the risk unit are divided into risk receptors of different levels, and different risk matrices are used to determine the risk level for risk receptors of different levels; wherein the risk matrix is ​​a matrix used to determine the risk level according to the failure possibility level and the failure consequence level.

[0013] Furthermore, based on the risk factors, a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure possibility level, including:

[0014] For any risk factor, the initial level of failure possibility is level 1. When the status corresponding to the risk factor meets the upgrade conditions, the failure possibility increases by the corresponding level. When two or more factors meet the upgrade conditions at the same time, the failure possibility levels are accumulated until the highest level.

[0015] Furthermore, the failure possibility level is divided according to the safety risk level and the failure probability level.

[0016] Furthermore, based on the two indicators of medium leakage and emergency response, a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure consequence level, including:

[0017] Determine the level of medium leakage according to the maximum possible leakage;

[0018] Establish consequence degradation standards based on emergency response indicators, revise the level of medium leakage, build a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system, and determine the failure consequence level;

[0019] The maximum possible leakage includes the leakage before the emergency valve is shut down and the possible leakage after the valve is shut down.

[0020] Furthermore, according to the sensitivity of the risk receptors, the risk receptors around the risk unit are divided into different levels of risk receptors, including:

[0021] The sensitivity of the risk receptors is determined based on the high consequence zone level of pipeline leakage, its correlation with municipal pipelines and ditches, and its impact on the social environment. The risk receptors around the risk unit are divided into different levels of risk receptors based on their sensitivity.

[0022] Furthermore, different risk matrices are used to determine the risk levels for risk receptors of different levels, including:

[0023] If the risk receptor is the first level, the first risk matrix is ​​used to determine the risk level;

[0024] If the risk receptor is the second level, the second risk matrix is ​​used to determine the risk level;

[0025] If the risk receptor is at the third level, the third risk matrix is ​​used to determine the risk level;

[0026] Among them, for the same failure possibility level and failure consequence level, the corresponding risk level in the first risk matrix is ​​greater than or equal to the corresponding risk level in the second risk matrix, and the corresponding risk level in the second risk matrix is ​​greater than or equal to the corresponding risk level in the third risk matrix.

[0027] Furthermore, risk factors are determined based on risk assessment data and failure history data, including:

[0028] By analyzing the causes of pipeline accidents, we can identify various dangerous and harmful factors that may cause pipeline safety accidents, including unsafe behaviors of personnel, unsafe conditions of objects, unsafe conditions of the environment, and management defects;

[0029] Determine the primary risk factors based on unsafe behaviors of personnel, unsafe conditions of objects, unsafe conditions of the environment and management deficiencies, wherein the primary risk factors include third-party damage, corrosion damage, natural geological disasters, design and construction, operation and maintenance;

[0030] Among them, the secondary risk factors under third-party sabotage include: third-party construction and farming activities, shallow burial, drilling and oil theft, and occupation;

[0031] Among them, the secondary risk factors under corrosion damage include: cathodic protection potential, stray current, internal detection, external anti-corrosion layer and soil corrosivity;

[0032] Among them, the secondary risk factors under natural geological disasters include: soil and water conservation and geological disaster danger;

[0033] Among them, the secondary risk factors under design and construction include: design and construction quality or standardization and pipeline design coefficient;

[0034] Among them, the secondary risk factors under operation and maintenance include: service life, rectification of safety hazards, leakage history, warning sign setting and leakage monitoring measures.

[0035] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an underground pipeline risk assessment device based on receptor sensitivity, comprising:

[0036] The risk unit division module is used to divide risk units according to different attributes of pipelines;

[0037] A first determination module is used to determine risk factors based on risk assessment data and failure history data;

[0038] A second determination module is used to construct a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system based on the risk factors and determine the failure possibility level;

[0039] The third determination module is used to construct a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system based on the two indicators of medium leakage and emergency disposal, and determine the failure consequence level;

[0040] The fourth determination module is used to divide the risk receptors around the risk unit into risk receptors of different levels according to the sensitivity of the risk receptors, and use different risk matrices to determine the risk level for risk receptors of different levels; wherein the risk matrix is ​​a matrix used to determine the risk level according to the failure possibility level and the failure consequence level.

[0041] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, the underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity as described in the first aspect is implemented.

[0042] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity as described in the first aspect.

[0043] It can be seen from the above technical scheme that the underground pipeline risk assessment method and device based on receptor sensitivity provided by the embodiment of the present invention divides risk units according to different attributes of the pipeline; determines risk factors based on risk assessment data and failure history data; constructs a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system based on the risk factors to determine the failure possibility level; constructs a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system based on two indicators, medium leakage and emergency disposal, to determine the failure consequence level; divides the risk receptors around the risk unit into risk receptors of different levels according to the sensitivity of the risk receptors, and uses different risk matrices to determine the risk level for risk receptors of different levels. It can be seen that the embodiment of the present invention divides risk units in combination with pipeline attributes, identifies risk factors based on daily management, various evaluations, historical failures and other data, establishes a failure possibility and failure consequence upgrade system, considers risk receptors to determine different types of evaluation criteria, and thus forms a comprehensive underground pipeline risk assessment method. The embodiment of the present invention takes accurate identification and scientific evaluation of underground pipeline risks as its starting point, conducts in-depth data analysis and model construction, abandons the semi-quantitative evaluation ideas that have been used for many years, combines objective data with the current status of pipeline operation, and innovates the evaluation model of failure possibility and failure consequence upgrade, which greatly reduces the impact of uneven experience of evaluators on the reliability of results; in addition, the embodiment of the present invention classifies risk receptors and uses different risk evaluation matrices to judge risk levels, thereby improving the applicability of the technology; the embodiment of the present invention is based on historical data and operation data, and also provides technical support for realizing online risk diagnosis based on the Internet of Things. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0044] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0045] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of an underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0046] Figure 2 It is a structural schematic diagram of an underground pipeline risk assessment device based on receptor sensitivity provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0047] Figure 3 It is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0048] The specific implementation of the present invention is further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The following embodiments are only used to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and cannot be used to limit the protection scope of the present invention.

[0049] The purpose of the present invention is to clarify the main risk factors, establish a failure possibility upgrade system, analyze the sensitivity of risk receptors, and implement classified assessment of underground pipeline risk conditions based on multiple matrices to grasp the safe operation status of pipelines and improve the applicability and reliability of pipeline risk assessment technology. The underground pipeline risk assessment method and device based on receptor sensitivity provided by the present invention will be described in detail below through specific embodiments.

[0050] Figure 1 FIG. 1 shows a flow chart of an underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1 As shown, the underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity provided by the embodiment of the present invention specifically includes the following contents:

[0051] Step 101: Divide the risk units according to different attributes of the pipeline;

[0052] In this step, with the purpose of classification and precise management, combined with the different laying environments such as densely populated areas, important facility areas and environmentally sensitive areas around the pipeline, it is determined that the factors to be considered when dividing the risk units must include stations, valve rooms, and high-consequence areas, while also considering factors such as pipeline wall thickness, crossings, terrain conditions, and administrative areas.

[0053] For example, in this embodiment, risk units may be first divided according to stations, and then each previously divided unit may be divided again according to valve chambers; each previously divided unit may be divided again according to high consequence areas, for a total of 108 risk units.

[0054] Step 102: Determine risk factors based on risk assessment data and failure history data;

[0055] In this step, based on the result data of geological hazard hazard assessment, suitability for use assessment, risk assessment, safety risk assessment, environmental risk assessment and other results conducted in recent years, the causes of pipeline accidents are analyzed by combining historical failure data. At the same time, considering the improvement of employee quality, management model progress, and maintenance technology in recent years, various dangerous and harmful factors that may induce pipeline safety accidents are identified, namely, unsafe behavior of personnel, unsafe state of objects, unsafe conditions of the environment and management defects.

[0056] In this step, according to the classification of factors, a total of 5 first-level risk factors were identified, including third-party damage, corrosion damage, natural geological disasters, design and construction, and operation and maintenance. Among them, there are 4 second-level risk factors under third-party damage, including: third-party construction and farming activities, shallow burial, drilling and oil theft, and occupation. There are 5 second-level risk factors under corrosion damage, including: cathodic protection potential, stray current, internal detection, external anti-corrosion layer, and soil corrosiveness. There are 2 second-level risk factors under natural geological disasters, including: soil and water conservation, and geological disaster hazard. There are 2 second-level risk factors under design and construction, including: design and construction quality or standardization, and pipeline design coefficient. There are 5 second-level risk factors under operation and maintenance, including: service life, safety hazard rectification, leakage history, warning sign setting, and leakage monitoring measures. This step optimizes the evaluation system, simplifies risk factors, effectively avoids the waste of labor caused by collecting and filling in redundant data during the evaluation process, and effectively improves the efficiency of risk evaluation.

[0057] Step 103: Based on the risk factors, a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure possibility level.

[0058] In this step, an underground pipeline failure possibility evaluation system is established to determine the basis for upgrading risk factors. The initial level of failure possibility is level 1. When the status of a certain factor meets the upgrading conditions, the failure possibility increases by the corresponding level. When two or more factors meet the upgrading conditions at the same time, the failure possibility level accumulates until the highest level.

[0059] Step 104: Based on the two indicators of medium leakage and emergency response, a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure consequence level;

[0060] In this step, the two important indicators of medium leakage and emergency disposal are integrated to establish an underground pipeline failure consequence upgrade evaluation system. For example, the medium leakage level can be determined according to the maximum possible leakage, and then the consequence degradation standard can be established according to the emergency disposal indicator, the medium leakage level can be corrected, and the failure consequence upgrade evaluation system can be constructed to determine the failure consequence level.

[0061] In this step, the medium leakage is measured by the maximum possible leakage, that is, considering the leakage before the emergency valve is shut down and the possible leakage after the valve is shut down, the maximum possible leakage is divided into 4 levels, represented by C1, C2, C3 and C4. C1: q<4.5t; C2: 4.5t≤q<45t; C3: 45t≤q<450t; C4: q≥450t.

[0062] Among them, the formulation of a comprehensive emergency response plan, the configuration of emergency materials and the implementation of emergency drills, the establishment of consequence degradation standards, and the correction of the level of medium leakage. When all of the following three items are met, it means that once the pipeline fails, the consequences of the failure can be controlled in time, so the failure consequence level will be 1.

[0063] ① A comprehensive emergency plan has been formulated to effectively guide emergency response work;

[0064] ②Sufficient emergency supplies are deployed, and the risk unit is within the radiation range of the material support center. Once an accident occurs, it can be quickly deployed to the accident site to effectively prevent the expansion of the accident;

[0065] ③ A joint emergency linkage mechanism between enterprises and local governments has been established, and comprehensive emergency drills are regularly conducted with local governments, communities, and property management companies.

[0066] Step 105: According to the sensitivity of the risk receptors, the risk receptors around the risk unit are divided into risk receptors of different levels, and different risk matrices are used to determine the risk level for risk receptors of different levels; wherein the risk matrix is ​​a matrix used to determine the risk level according to the failure possibility level and the failure consequence level.

[0067] In this embodiment, the risk receptors that may be affected around the risk unit are divided into Type 1, Type 2 and Type 3 from high to low according to the sensitivity of the risk receptors. Risk receptors mainly include natural environment, social environment, personnel, and facilities. On the basis of the identification criteria for pipeline high consequence areas, municipal pipelines, ditches and social environment related content are supplemented. If there are multiple types of risk receptors around the risk unit, they are determined according to the type with the highest sensitivity.

[0068] According to the three types of risk receptors around the risk unit, different levels of risk matrices are used to determine the risk level and the risk acceptability of the pipeline by combining the failure possibility level and the failure consequence level. The risk level includes three levels, namely, level III risk (company-level risk), level II risk (management office-level risk), and level I risk (management station-level risk). Level III risk is an unacceptable risk and timely measures need to be taken to reduce the risk; level II risk is a conditionally tolerable risk and needs to be managed in combination with technical conditions and maintenance costs; level I risk is a widely acceptable risk and the risk level can be ignored. The existing pipeline management content is maintained and no further measures are required to reduce the risk.

[0069] It can be seen that this embodiment establishes an underground pipeline risk assessment model based on receptor sensitivity, constructs upgrade systems for failure possibility and failure consequences respectively, and uses different risk matrices for evaluation based on risk receptor sensitivity, which innovates new ideas for risk assessment and improves the reliability, applicability and accuracy of evaluation results.

[0070] It can be seen from the above technical scheme that the underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity provided by the embodiment of the present invention divides risk units according to different attributes of the pipeline; determines risk factors based on risk assessment data and failure history data; constructs a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system based on the risk factors to determine the failure possibility level; constructs a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system based on two indicators, medium leakage and emergency disposal, to determine the failure consequence level; divides the risk receptors around the risk unit into risk receptors of different levels according to the sensitivity of the risk receptors, and uses different risk matrices to determine the risk level for risk receptors of different levels. It can be seen that the embodiment of the present invention divides risk units in combination with pipeline attributes, identifies risk factors based on daily management, various evaluations, historical failures and other data, and establishes a failure possibility and failure consequence upgrade system, considers risk receptors to determine different types of evaluation criteria, thereby forming a comprehensive underground pipeline risk assessment method. The embodiment of the present invention takes the accurate identification and scientific evaluation of underground pipeline risks as its starting point, conducts in-depth data analysis and model construction, abandons the semi-quantitative evaluation ideas that have been used for many years, combines objective data with the current status of pipeline operation, and innovates the evaluation model of failure possibility and failure consequence upgrade, which greatly reduces the impact of the uneven experience of evaluators on the reliability of results; in addition, the embodiment of the present invention optimizes the evaluation system, streamlines risk factors, and effectively avoids the waste of labor caused by collecting and filling in redundant data during the evaluation process, thereby effectively improving the efficiency of risk evaluation; in addition, the embodiment of the present invention classifies risk receptors, uses different risk evaluation matrices to judge risk levels, and improves the applicability of the technology; the embodiment of the present invention is based on historical data and operation data, and also provides technical support for realizing online risk diagnosis based on the Internet of Things.

[0071] Based on the content of the above embodiment, in this embodiment, according to the risk factors, a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure possibility level, including:

[0072] For any risk factor, the initial level of failure possibility is level 1. When the status corresponding to the risk factor meets the upgrade conditions, the failure possibility increases by the corresponding level. When two or more factors meet the upgrade conditions at the same time, the failure possibility levels are accumulated until the highest level.

[0073] In this embodiment, the traditional scoring quantification method is abandoned, and the scoring basis is replaced by the upgrading basis, and the failure possibility analysis idea is innovated. This processing method of determining the failure possibility level by upgrading can more accurately reflect the actual failure possibility level compared with the traditional scoring method. As shown in Table 1, an underground pipeline failure possibility evaluation system is established to determine the upgrading basis of risk factors. The initial failure possibility level is level 1. When the state of a certain factor meets the upgrading conditions, the failure possibility increases by the corresponding level. When two or more factors meet the upgrading conditions at the same time, the failure possibility level is accumulated until the highest level.

[0074] Table 1 Evaluation system for the possibility of underground pipeline failure

[0075]

[0076]

[0077]

[0078] Among them, the failure possibility level introduces the level description of safety risk and the probability level division, and the division adopts a 4-level division basis, as shown in Table 2. It should be noted that using the safety risk level and probability level as the division criteria for the failure possibility level can make the determination of the failure possibility level more credible.

[0079] Table 2 Failure probability classification standards

[0080]

[0081] In this embodiment, for example, assume that the risk unit is a high-consequence area with a dense population of level III, there are third-party construction activities around the underground pipeline, which is a general safety hazard, the pipeline is buried at a depth of 1.5m, there are no easy drilling and oil theft points, there is no occupation, the pipeline is in good corrosion condition, the anti-corrosion measures are effective, there are no natural and geological disaster points, and the pipeline design, construction, operation and maintenance are in accordance with standard requirements. Based on this, it can be determined that the pipeline failure possibility level is upgraded to level 2.

[0082] Based on the content of the above embodiment, in this embodiment, according to the two indicators of medium leakage and emergency disposal, a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure consequence level, including:

[0083] Determine the level of medium leakage according to the maximum possible leakage;

[0084] Establish consequence degradation standards based on emergency response indicators, revise the level of medium leakage, build a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system, and determine the failure consequence level;

[0085] The maximum possible leakage includes the leakage before the emergency valve is shut down and the possible leakage after the valve is shut down.

[0086] In this embodiment, an underground pipeline failure consequence upgrade evaluation system is established by integrating two important indicators, namely, medium leakage and emergency disposal, so that the determination of the failure consequence level is more in line with the actual situation, and the determination of the failure consequence level is more meaningful for reference. It is understandable that the failure consequence level is somewhat absolute if it is determined solely by the medium leakage. When the formulation of the comprehensive emergency response plan, the configuration of emergency materials and the implementation of emergency drills meet the conditions, it indicates that once the pipeline fails, the failure consequence can be controlled in time. Therefore, in this case, the failure consequence level can be reduced by one level based on the failure consequence level determined by the medium leakage.

[0087] Among them, the medium leakage is measured by the maximum possible leakage, that is, considering the leakage before the emergency valve is shut down and the possible leakage after the valve is shut down, the maximum possible leakage is divided into 4 levels, represented by Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. Q1: q<4.5t; Q2: 4.5t≤q<45t; Q3: 45t≤q<450t; Q4: q≥450t.

[0088] Among them, the formulation of a comprehensive emergency response plan, the configuration of emergency materials and the implementation of emergency drills, the establishment of consequence degradation standards, and the correction of the level of medium leakage are carried out. When all of the following three items are met, it means that once the pipeline fails, the consequences of the failure can be controlled in time, so the failure consequence level is reduced by 1 level.

[0089] ① A comprehensive emergency plan has been formulated to effectively guide emergency response work;

[0090] ②Sufficient emergency supplies are deployed, and the risk unit is within the radiation range of the material support center. Once an accident occurs, it can be quickly deployed to the accident site to effectively prevent the expansion of the accident;

[0091] ③ A joint emergency linkage mechanism between enterprises and local governments has been established, and comprehensive emergency drills are regularly conducted with local governments, communities, and property management companies.

[0092] In this embodiment, for example, the maximum leakage of the pipeline is expected to be 240t, which belongs to the C3 level. However, due to proper emergency response to pipeline accidents, a complete and effective emergency plan, sufficient emergency supplies, the establishment of a joint emergency linkage mechanism between enterprises and local governments, and regular comprehensive emergency drills, the expansion of accidents can be effectively prevented. Therefore, the failure consequence of the pipeline is reduced by 1 level, and the final failure consequence is C2.

[0093] Based on the content of the above embodiment, in this embodiment, according to the sensitivity of the risk receptors, the risk receptors around the risk unit are divided into risk receptors of different levels, including:

[0094] The sensitivity of the risk receptors is determined based on the high consequence zone level of pipeline leakage, its correlation with municipal pipelines and ditches, and its impact on the social environment. The risk receptors around the risk unit are divided into different levels of risk receptors based on their sensitivity.

[0095] In this embodiment, the risk receptors that may be affected around the risk unit can be divided into type 1, type 2 and type 3 from high to low according to the sensitivity of the risk receptors, as shown in Table 3. Risk receptors mainly include natural environment, social environment, personnel, and facilities. On the basis of the identification criteria for pipeline high consequence areas, municipal pipelines, ditches and social environment related content are supplemented. If there are multiple types of risk receptors around the risk unit, they are determined according to the type with the highest sensitivity.

[0096] Table 3 Classification of sensitivity of risk receptors

[0097]

[0098]

[0099] It can be seen that for the three types of risk receptors around risk units, different levels of risk matrices can be used for risk assessment.

[0100] Based on the content of the above embodiment, in this embodiment, different risk matrices are used for risk receptors of different levels to determine the risk level, including:

[0101] If the risk receptor is the first level, the first risk matrix is ​​used to determine the risk level;

[0102] If the risk receptor is the second level, the second risk matrix is ​​used to determine the risk level;

[0103] If the risk receptor is at the third level, the third risk matrix is ​​used to determine the risk level;

[0104] Among them, for the same failure possibility level and failure consequence level, the corresponding risk level in the first risk matrix is ​​greater than or equal to the corresponding risk level in the second risk matrix, and the corresponding risk level in the second risk matrix is ​​greater than or equal to the corresponding risk level in the third risk matrix.

[0105] In this embodiment, since risk receptors of different levels have different risk tolerance and sensitivity to risk, different risk matrices are used for risk receptors of different levels, which can more accurately determine the corresponding risk level, thereby making the final determined risk level more meaningful for reference.

[0106] In this embodiment, for example, according to the three types of risk receptors around the risk unit, different levels of risk matrices are used to determine the risk level and determine the risk acceptability of the pipeline by combining the failure possibility level and the failure consequence level. The risk level includes three levels, namely, level III (company-level risk), level II (management office-level risk), and level I (management station-level risk). Level III risk is an unacceptable risk and timely measures need to be taken to reduce the risk; level II risk is a conditionally tolerable risk and needs to be managed in combination with technical conditions and maintenance costs; level I risk is a widely acceptable risk and the risk level can be ignored. The existing pipeline management content is maintained and no further measures are required to reduce the risk.

[0107] Among them, when the risk receptors around the risk unit belong to type 1, the risk level is determined according to Table 4.

[0108] Table 4 Risk matrix for type 1 (E1)

[0109]

[0110] Among them, when the risk receptors around the risk unit belong to type 2, the risk level is determined according to Table 5.

[0111] Table 5 Risk matrix for type 2 (E2)

[0112]

[0113] Among them, when the risk receptors around the risk unit belong to type 3, the risk level is determined according to Table 6.

[0114] Table 6 Risk Matrix for Type 3 (E3)

[0115]

[0116] In this embodiment, it is assumed that the risk unit is a Class III densely populated high consequence area, and the risk receptor belongs to Type 1, so the risk matrix of Type 1 (E1) is used to judge the risk level, and the risk level of the risk unit is obtained as Class II risk. According to the above description, for Class II risk, it is necessary to combine technical conditions and maintenance costs for management and control.

[0117] Based on the content of the above embodiment, in this embodiment, the risk factors are determined according to the risk assessment data and the failure history data, including:

[0118] By analyzing the causes of pipeline accidents, we can identify various dangerous and harmful factors that may cause pipeline safety accidents, including unsafe behaviors of personnel, unsafe conditions of objects, unsafe conditions of the environment, and management defects;

[0119] Determine the primary risk factors based on unsafe behaviors of personnel, unsafe conditions of objects, unsafe conditions of the environment and management deficiencies, wherein the primary risk factors include third-party damage, corrosion damage, natural geological disasters, design and construction, operation and maintenance;

[0120] Among them, the secondary risk factors under third-party sabotage include: third-party construction and farming activities, shallow burial, drilling and oil theft, and occupation;

[0121] Among them, the secondary risk factors under corrosion damage include: cathodic protection potential, stray current, internal detection, external anti-corrosion layer and soil corrosivity;

[0122] Among them, the secondary risk factors under natural geological disasters include: soil and water conservation and geological disaster danger;

[0123] Among them, the secondary risk factors under design and construction include: design and construction quality or standardization and pipeline design coefficient;

[0124] Among them, the secondary risk factors under operation and maintenance include: service life, rectification of safety hazards, leakage history, warning sign setting and leakage monitoring measures.

[0125] In this embodiment, risk factor identification is the basis of risk assessment. By analyzing the causes of pipeline accidents, various dangerous and harmful factors that may induce pipeline safety accidents are identified, namely, unsafe behaviors of personnel, unsafe conditions of objects, unsafe conditions of the environment, and management defects. Considering factors such as the improvement of employee quality, management model advancement, and maintenance technology improvement in recent years, risk factor identification is carried out based on the result data of geological disaster hazard assessment, suitability for use assessment, risk assessment, safety risk assessment, and environmental risk assessment carried out in recent years, and comprehensive historical failure data.

[0126] This embodiment optimizes the evaluation system, simplifies risk factors, effectively avoids the waste of labor caused by collecting and filling in redundant data during the evaluation process, and effectively improves the efficiency of risk evaluation.

[0127] Figure 2 FIG. 1 shows a schematic diagram of the structure of an underground pipeline risk assessment device based on receptor sensitivity provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 2 As shown, the underground pipeline risk assessment device based on receptor sensitivity provided by an embodiment of the present invention includes:

[0128] The risk unit division module 21 is used to divide the risk units according to different attributes of the pipeline;

[0129] A first determination module 22, used to determine risk factors based on risk assessment data and failure history data;

[0130] The second determination module 23 is used to construct a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system according to the risk factors and determine the failure possibility level;

[0131] The third determination module 24 is used to construct a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system based on the two indicators of medium leakage and emergency disposal, and determine the failure consequence level;

[0132] The fourth determination module 25 is used to divide the risk receptors around the risk unit into risk receptors of different levels according to the sensitivity of the risk receptors, and use different risk matrices to determine the risk level for risk receptors of different levels; wherein the risk matrix is ​​a matrix used to determine the risk level according to the failure possibility level and the failure consequence level.

[0133] Since the underground pipeline risk assessment device based on receptor sensitivity provided in this embodiment can be used to execute the underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity provided in the above embodiments, its working principle and beneficial effects are similar and will not be described in detail here.

[0134] Based on the same inventive concept, another embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, see Figure 3 , the electronic device specifically includes the following contents: a processor 301, a memory 302, a communication interface 303 and a communication bus 304;

[0135] The processor 301, the memory 302, and the communication interface 303 communicate with each other through the communication bus 304; the communication interface 303 is used to realize information transmission between various devices;

[0136] The processor 301 is used to call the computer program in the memory 302. When the processor executes the computer program, all steps of the underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity are implemented. For example, when the processor executes the computer program, the following steps are implemented: risk unit division according to different attributes of the pipeline; risk factors are determined according to risk assessment data and failure history data; based on the risk factors, a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure possibility level; based on the two indicators of medium leakage and emergency response, a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure consequence level; based on the sensitivity of the risk receptors, the risk receptors around the risk unit are divided into risk receptors of different levels, and different risk matrices are used for risk receptors of different levels to determine the risk level; wherein the risk matrix is ​​a matrix used to determine the risk level according to the failure possibility level and the failure consequence level.

[0137] Based on the same inventive concept, another embodiment of the present invention provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, all the steps of the underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity are implemented. For example, when the processor executes the computer program, the following steps are implemented: risk unit division according to different attributes of the pipeline; risk factors are determined according to risk assessment data and failure history data; based on the risk factors, a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure possibility level; based on the two indicators of medium leakage and emergency response, a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure consequence level; based on the sensitivity of the risk receptors, the risk receptors around the risk unit are divided into risk receptors of different levels, and different risk matrices are used for risk receptors of different levels to determine the risk level; wherein the risk matrix is ​​a matrix used to determine the risk level according to the failure possibility level and the failure consequence level.

[0138] In addition, the logic instructions in the above-mentioned memory can be implemented in the form of software functional units and can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium when sold or used as an independent product. Based on such an understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: various media that can store program codes, such as a USB flash drive, a mobile hard disk, a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk.

[0139] The device embodiments described above are merely illustrative, wherein the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components displayed as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the embodiments of the present invention. Those of ordinary skill in the art may understand and implement them without creative effort.

[0140] Through the description of the above embodiments, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that each embodiment can be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform, or of course by hardware. Based on this understanding, the above technical solution can essentially or in other words be embodied in the form of a software product that contributes to the prior art. The computer software product can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as ROM / RAM, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, etc., and includes a number of instructions for enabling a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute the underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity described in each embodiment or some parts of the embodiment.

[0141] In addition, in the present invention, terms such as "first" and "second" are only used for descriptive purposes and cannot be understood as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of the indicated technical features. Therefore, the features defined as "first" and "second" may explicitly or implicitly include at least one of the features. In the description of the present invention, the meaning of "plurality" is at least two, such as two, three, etc., unless otherwise clearly and specifically defined.

[0142] In addition, in the present invention, relational terms such as first and second, etc. are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or any other variants thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or device including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or device. In the absence of further restrictions, the elements defined by the statement "comprise a ..." do not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or device including the elements.

[0143] In addition, in the description of this specification, the description with reference to the terms "one embodiment", "some embodiments", "example", "specific example", or "some examples" etc. means that the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described in conjunction with the embodiment or example are included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the schematic representations of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Moreover, the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described may be combined in any one or more embodiments or examples in a suitable manner. In addition, those skilled in the art may combine and combine the different embodiments or examples described in this specification and the features of the different embodiments or examples, without contradiction.

[0144] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A risk assessment method for underground pipelines based on receptor sensitivity, characterized in that: include: Divide risk units according to different attributes of pipelines; Determine risk factors based on risk assessment data and failure history data; Based on the risk factors, a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure possibility level; According to the two indicators of medium leakage and emergency disposal, a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure consequence level; According to the sensitivity of the risk receptors, the risk receptors around the risk unit are divided into risk receptors of different levels, and different risk matrices are used to determine the risk level for risk receptors of different levels; wherein the risk matrix is ​​a matrix used to determine the risk level according to the failure possibility level and the failure consequence level; Based on the risk factors, a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure possibility level, including: For any risk factor, the initial level of failure possibility is level 1. When the status corresponding to the risk factor meets the upgrade conditions, the failure possibility increases by the corresponding level. When two or more factors meet the upgrade conditions at the same time, the failure possibility levels are accumulated until the highest level.

2. The underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The failure possibility level is divided according to the safety risk level and the failure probability level.

3. The underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Based on the two indicators of medium leakage and emergency response, a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system is constructed to determine the failure consequence level, including: Determine the level of medium leakage according to the maximum possible leakage; Establish consequence degradation standards based on emergency response indicators, revise the level of medium leakage, build a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system, and determine the failure consequence level; The maximum possible leakage includes the leakage before the emergency valve is shut down and the possible leakage after the valve is shut down.

4. The underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity according to claim 1 is characterized in that: According to the sensitivity of risk receptors, the risk receptors around the risk unit are divided into different levels of risk receptors, including: The sensitivity of the risk receptors is determined based on the high consequence zone level of pipeline leakage, its correlation with municipal pipelines and ditches, and its impact on the social environment. The risk receptors around the risk unit are divided into different levels of risk receptors based on their sensitivity.

5. The underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Different risk matrices are used to determine the risk levels for risk receptors of different levels, including: If the risk receptor is the first level, the first risk matrix is ​​used to determine the risk level; If the risk receptor is the second level, the second risk matrix is ​​used to determine the risk level; If the risk receptor is at the third level, the third risk matrix is ​​used to determine the risk level; Among them, for the same failure possibility level and failure consequence level, the corresponding risk level in the first risk matrix is ​​greater than or equal to the corresponding risk level in the second risk matrix, and the corresponding risk level in the second risk matrix is ​​greater than or equal to the corresponding risk level in the third risk matrix.

6. The underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Determine risk factors based on risk assessment data and failure history data, including: By analyzing the causes of pipeline accidents, we can identify various dangerous and harmful factors that may cause pipeline safety accidents, including unsafe behaviors of personnel, unsafe conditions of objects, unsafe conditions of the environment, and management defects; Determine the primary risk factors based on unsafe behaviors of personnel, unsafe conditions of objects, unsafe conditions of the environment and management deficiencies, wherein the primary risk factors include third-party damage, corrosion damage, natural geological disasters, design and construction, operation and maintenance; Among them, the secondary risk factors under third-party sabotage include: third-party construction and farming activities, shallow burial, drilling and oil theft, and occupation; Among them, the secondary risk factors under corrosion damage include: cathodic protection potential, stray current, internal detection, external anti-corrosion layer and soil corrosivity; Among them, the secondary risk factors under natural geological disasters include: soil and water conservation and geological disaster danger; Among them, the secondary risk factors under design and construction include: design and construction quality or standardization and pipeline design coefficient; Among them, the secondary risk factors under operation and maintenance include: service life, rectification of safety hazards, leakage history, warning sign setting and leakage monitoring measures.

7. An underground pipeline risk assessment device based on receptor sensitivity, characterized in that: include: The risk unit division module is used to divide risk units according to different attributes of pipelines; A first determination module is used to determine risk factors based on risk assessment data and failure history data; A second determination module is used to construct a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system based on the risk factors and determine the failure possibility level; The third determination module is used to construct a failure consequence upgrade evaluation system based on the two indicators of medium leakage and emergency disposal, and determine the failure consequence level; The fourth determination module is used to classify the risk receptors around the risk unit into risk receptors of different levels according to the sensitivity of the risk receptors, and use different risk matrices to determine the risk level for the risk receptors of different levels; wherein the risk matrix is ​​a matrix used to determine the risk level according to the failure possibility level and the failure consequence level; When the second determination module is used to construct a failure possibility upgrade evaluation system according to the risk factors and determine the failure possibility level, it is specifically used to: For any risk factor, the initial level of failure possibility is level 1. When the status corresponding to the risk factor meets the upgrade conditions, the failure possibility increases by the corresponding level. When two or more factors meet the upgrade conditions at the same time, the failure possibility levels are accumulated until the highest level.

8. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that: When the processor executes the computer program, the underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity as described in any one of claims 1 to 6 is implemented.

9. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the underground pipeline risk assessment method based on receptor sensitivity as described in any one of claims 1 to 6 is implemented.

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