A comprehensive control method for space mission risks and safety risks

Abstract

This paper proposes a comprehensive management and control method for space safety and mission risks. It improves traditional risk management methods from four aspects: risk classification, risk quantification, risk dynamic characteristics, and risk judgment and decision support. This improves the effectiveness of comprehensive risk management and control, and reduces space mission and safety risks. By simultaneously considering both space safety and mission risks, the paper offers promising prospects for promotion and application from non-manned to manned space models. It prioritizes the quantitative evaluation of mission and safety risks, enabling more effective support for risk response through ranking by importance. It explicitly addresses the dynamic characteristics of risks, identifying key safety and mission risks under dynamic circumstances through risk propagation prediction. It also explicitly addresses the issue of ordering party risk management, supporting ordering parties in making comprehensive risk trade-offs based on factors such as time and funding through risk judgment and decision making.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of risk management and control technology, and in particular to a method for comprehensively controlling space mission risks and safety risks. Background Art

[0002] Risk management is a perennial theme in the development of spacecraft and the implementation of flight missions. For unmanned spacecraft (such as satellites and probes), the primary consideration is mission risk management. For manned spacecraft (such as manned spacecraft and space stations), both mission and safety risks must be considered. How to implement comprehensive management of both space mission and safety risks within a unified framework is a key issue that both ordering and contracting parties should consider.

[0003] Currently, aerospace risk management focuses on identifying, analyzing, and monitoring mission risks. In light of the demands of model development and mission implementation, existing risk management efforts have the following shortcomings:

[0004] (1) Incomplete coverage of risk categories: Traditional aerospace risk management focuses on mission risk management, which does not include safety risk management and control, making it difficult to adapt to the requirements of manned space model and mission risk management.

[0005] (2) Risk assessment is difficult to quantify: Traditional aerospace risk management and control work conducts qualitative risk analysis and ranking from two dimensions: the possibility of occurrence and the severity of consequences. Without establishing a risk quantitative assessment model, it is difficult to provide more quantitative analysis and ranking results.

[0006] (3) The description of the dynamic characteristics of risks is not accurate enough: Traditional aerospace risk management can only describe the dynamic characteristics of risks by iteratively taking countermeasures and qualitatively analyzing risks before and after. It is difficult to accurately describe the propagation characteristics of risks in the same space-time environment and to provide targeted goals for active risk control.

[0007] (4) Insufficient support for risk assessment and decision-making: Traditional aerospace risk management and control work supports the contractor to take countermeasures to reduce the overall risk level through qualitative analysis and ranking, but the support for the ordering party's risk management and control work is limited, and it is difficult to meet the ordering party's risk assessment and decision-making needs. Summary of the Invention

[0008] In view of this, the present invention proposes a comprehensive risk management method for aerospace safety and mission risks, which can improve the traditional risk management method from four aspects: risk category, risk quantitative evaluation, risk dynamic characteristic description, and risk judgment and decision support strength, thereby improving the effectiveness of comprehensive risk management and control and reducing aerospace mission and safety risks.

[0009] To achieve the above object, the technical solution of the present invention is:

[0010] A structural reliability design optimization method based on a hybrid strategy of the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0011] Identification and analysis of space mission and safety risks: Identify mission risks that affect mission success and safety risks that affect astronaut safety. Determine the likelihood of risk occurrence and severity of consequences through a comprehensive risk rating method. Conduct qualitative analysis and ranking of identified risks to determine key risks.

[0012] Space mission and safety risk response monitoring: Develop and implement risk response measures, monitor changes in the likelihood of risk occurrence and severity of consequences, re-analyze and prioritize risks after measures are taken, and update key risks;

[0013] Space mission and safety risk modeling and evaluation: Using the updated key risks as baseline events, we use probabilistic risk assessment methods to build a space mission and safety risk model, collect data on the probability of occurrence of baseline events, conduct quantitative assessments of mission and safety risks, and update key risks again by ranking them by importance.

[0014] Space mission and safety risk propagation prediction: Using the updated key risks as nodes, a complex network method is used to establish a mission and safety risk propagation prediction model to predict mission and safety risk propagation and determine the key risks corresponding to high-load nodes;

[0015] Space mission and safety risk assessment and decision-making: Using the analytic hierarchy process, we conduct a comprehensive comparative analysis of key risk plans corresponding to high-load nodes and make risk assessment and decision-making;

[0016] Active control of space mission and safety risks: Develop active control measures based on the determined optimal risk plan and verify the effectiveness of the control measures.

[0017] Among them, in the space mission and safety risk identification analysis, the mission risks that affect the success of the mission are identified through a clue table.

[0018] The specific steps for space mission and safety risk identification and analysis are as follows:

[0019] 1. Identification of space mission and safety risks: Space risks are divided into two categories: mission and safety. Mission and safety risks are identified using a risk clue table method.

[0020] 2. Space mission and safety risk analysis: Conduct qualitative analysis of identified risks based on the likelihood of occurrence and severity of consequences, and obtain a comprehensive risk rating for each risk.

[0021] 3. Determination of space mission and key safety risks: Based on the comprehensive risk rating results, risks with comprehensive rating results of IV and V are selected as mission and key safety risks; a set of influencing factors is constructed to form classification samples, and then the samples are classified and processed using the fuzzy clustering method to obtain the strategy set of each player.

[0022] The specific steps for space mission and safety risk response monitoring are as follows:

[0023] 1. Space missions and safety risk response:

[0024] a) For high-risk projects with comprehensive risk levels of IV and V, formulate response measures to eliminate or reduce risks and implement them in all stages of development and production. At the same time, use calculations, analysis, and testing methods to verify the effectiveness of risk response measures, strengthen implementation effect evaluation, and re-evaluate the comprehensive technical risks after the measures are implemented;

[0025] b) For medium-risk projects with an overall risk rating of III, they will be the focus of node quality control and milestone reviews, and will be closely monitored in all subsequent development and production stages. At the same time, effective measures will be taken in conjunction with the development process to ensure that technical risks are reduced to an acceptable level before transitioning to a new stage.

[0026] c) For low-risk projects with comprehensive risk levels of II and I, monitor, track and record their subsequent status changes to prevent their hazard levels from increasing;

[0027] d) For technical risks that cannot be eliminated, reduced or transferred and cannot reach an acceptable level, a list of residual technical risks of the system shall be compiled, and an emergency plan shall be formulated and included in the system technical risk analysis and response report;

[0028] 2. Space mission and safety risk monitoring:

[0029] a) Designate a dedicated person to comprehensively and systematically collect and master technical risk information and promptly inform relevant personnel;

[0030] b) Based on the monitoring situation, promptly correct the system's technical risk response measures, update technical risk status information, and adjust the technical risk management work plan;

[0031] c) Complete the technical risk analysis and response report for the system before the transition, provide a clear conclusion on whether the risks have been eliminated or reduced to an acceptable level, submit the report and include it in the scope of the special review;

[0032] 3. Update of key space mission and safety risks: Based on the risk monitoring situation, the space mission and safety risk comprehensive rating is re-conducted according to the probability of risk occurrence and the severity of the consequences, and the key risks are updated based on the rating results.

[0033] The specific steps for space mission and safety risk modeling and evaluation are as follows:

[0034] 1. Establish a full mission profile event tree model:

[0035] Define two consequence states (astronaut casualty (LOC) and mission failure (LO), and establish a full-profile event tree model for a manned spacecraft launch mission.

[0036] 2. Establish a fault tree model for intermediate task events: Establish a fault tree model for intermediate task events with the intermediate event in the event tree as the top event and the updated key risk as the bottom event;

[0037] 3. Quantitative evaluation of mission and safety risks: Collect the probability data of events at the bottom of the fault tree, conduct quantitative evaluation of mission and safety risks, and obtain the probability of occurrence of LOC and LOM (PLOC and PLOM);

[0038] 4. Importance ranking and key risk update: Use FV importance to rank the importance of events at the bottom of the fault tree, and update the key risks again based on the ranking results.

[0039] The specific steps for predicting space mission and safety risk communication are as follows:

[0040] 1. Establish a mission and safety risk propagation prediction model: Using a complex network approach, with the updated key risks as nodes, analyze the influence relationship between nodes and construct a mission and safety risk propagation prediction model;

[0041] 2. Determine the key risks corresponding to high-load nodes of mission and security risks: Calculate the out-degree, in-degree and comprehensive degree of each node in the propagation prediction model, determine the high-load nodes based on the comprehensive degree, and then determine the key risks corresponding to the high-load nodes.

[0042] The space mission and safety risk assessment and decision-making process specifically includes the following steps:

[0043] 1. Develop key risk plans:

[0044] Taking into account the constraints of schedule and funding, key risk contingency plans corresponding to high-load nodes are formulated one by one;

[0045] 2. Key risk plan judgment and decision-making:

[0046] The hierarchical analysis method is used to analyze key risk plans and determine the optimal risk plan.

[0047] Among them, active control of space missions and safety risks includes the following steps:

[0048] 1. Formulate proactive risk control measures for the optimal risk plan: Based on the optimal risk plan and risk control measures, formulate proactive control measures to eliminate or transfer hazard sources from a product design perspective;

[0049] 2. Verify the effectiveness of measures: For the determined active control measures, verify the effectiveness of the measures through evaluation, analysis, simulation and testing. If the effectiveness does not meet the requirements, re-analyze and formulate risk active control measures until the requirements are met.

[0050] Beneficial effects:

[0051] The present invention takes into account both aerospace safety risks and mission risks, and has a good prospect for promotion and application from non-manned to manned aerospace models; it focuses on the quantitative evaluation of mission and safety risks, and can more effectively support risk response through importance ranking; it clearly proposes the issue of describing the dynamic characteristics of risks, and determines the key safety and mission risks under dynamic conditions through risk propagation prediction; it clearly proposes the issue of the ordering party's risk management and control methods, and supports the ordering party in making comprehensive risk trade-offs based on factors such as time and funds through risk judgment decisions.

[0052] The method of the present invention is targeted at the development characteristics of aerospace models, especially manned aerospace models, and expands the scope of traditional risk management work. It comprehensively considers safety risks and mission risks, and proposes risk propagation prediction, judgment and decision-making, and active control processes based on the dynamic characteristics of risks. It can provide reference and reference for comprehensive risk management and control work for aerospace models. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0053] Figure 1 Schematic diagram of the implementation process of the method for comprehensive management and control of space missions and safety risks of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0054] The present invention is described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0055] Traditional aerospace risk management and control efforts struggle to adapt to the demands of manned spaceflight models and missions, necessitating systematic innovation and application of risk management and control, taking into account the specific characteristics of these models and missions. This invention overcomes the shortcomings of traditional risk management and control methods by providing a comprehensive management and control method for spaceflight mission and safety risks. This method improves upon traditional risk management and control methods in four areas: risk classification, risk quantification and assessment, risk dynamic characteristics, and support for risk assessment and decision-making. This approach enhances the effectiveness of comprehensive risk management and control, reducing spaceflight mission and safety risks.

[0056] The present invention provides a method for comprehensive control of aerospace safety and mission risks, the implementation process of which is as follows: Figure 1 As shown, the following steps are included:

[0057] (1) Identification and analysis of space mission and safety risks, i.e., identifying mission risks that affect mission success and safety risks that affect astronaut safety through methods such as clue tables, qualitatively analyzing and ranking the identified risks through comprehensive risk ranking methods, and determining key risks; the specific steps are as follows:

[0058] 1. Space missions and safety risk identification

[0059] Space risks are categorized into two main categories: mission and safety. Risks are identified through methods such as risk clue tables. For specific methods, refer to GJB 5852, "Requirements for Risk Analysis in Equipment Development."

[0060] 2. Space Mission and Safety Risk Analysis

[0061] Conduct a qualitative analysis of identified risks based on the likelihood of occurrence and severity of consequences, generating a comprehensive risk rating for each risk. For specific methods, refer to GJB 5852, "Requirements for Risk Analysis in Equipment Development."

[0062] 3. Space mission and safety-critical risk identification

[0063] Based on the comprehensive risk rating results, risks with comprehensive rating results of level IV and level V are selected as mission- and safety-critical risks.

[0064] (2) Space mission and safety risk response monitoring, namely, formulating and implementing risk response measures, monitoring the changes in the likelihood of risk occurrence and the severity of consequences, and re-analyzing and ranking the risks after measures are taken, and updating key risks. The specific steps are as follows:

[0065] 1. Space missions and safety risk response

[0066] a) For high-risk projects with a comprehensive risk rating of IV or V, response measures to eliminate or reduce risks should be developed and implemented throughout all stages of development and production. Simultaneously, calculations, analysis, and testing should be used to verify the effectiveness of risk response measures, strengthen implementation evaluation, and re-evaluate the comprehensive technical risks after implementing these measures.

[0067] b) For medium-risk projects with an overall risk rating of III, they should be the focus of node quality control and milestone reviews, and closely monitored throughout the subsequent development and production phases. At the same time, effective measures should be implemented in conjunction with the development process to ensure that technical risks are reduced to an acceptable level before transitioning to a new phase.

[0068] c) For low-risk projects with comprehensive risk levels of II and I, their subsequent status changes should be monitored, tracked and recorded to prevent the degree of harm from increasing.

[0069] d) For technical risks that cannot be eliminated, reduced or transferred and cannot reach an acceptable level, a list of residual technical risks of the system should be compiled, and an emergency plan should be formulated and included in the system technical risk analysis and response report.

[0070] 2. Space mission and safety risk monitoring

[0071] a) Designate a dedicated person to comprehensively and systematically collect and master technical risk information and promptly inform relevant personnel;

[0072] b) Based on the monitoring situation, promptly correct the system's technical risk response measures, update technical risk status information, and adjust the technical risk management work plan;

[0073] c) Complete the technical risk analysis and response report for this system before the transition, provide a clear conclusion on whether the risks have been eliminated or reduced to an acceptable level, submit the report and include it in the scope of the special review.

[0074] 3. Update of key space mission and safety risks: Based on the risk monitoring situation, the space mission and safety risk comprehensive rating is re-conducted according to the probability of risk occurrence and the severity of the consequences, and the key risks are updated based on the rating results.

[0075] (3) Space mission and safety risk modeling and evaluation: using the updated key risks as the base events, using the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) method to build a space mission and safety risk model, collecting the probability data of the base events, conducting a quantitative evaluation of the mission and safety risks, and updating the key risks again by ranking them according to their importance. The specific steps are as follows:

[0076] 1. Establish a full mission profile event tree model

[0077] Two consequence states, loss of life (LOC) and mission failure (LOM), were defined, and an event tree model for the full profile of a manned spacecraft launch mission was established. The specific method can be found in GB / T 29075, "Procedure for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Spacecraft."

[0078] 2. Establish an intermediate task event fault tree model

[0079] A fault tree model for intermediate mission events is constructed, with the intermediate event in the event tree as the top event and the updated critical risk as the bottom event. For specific methods, refer to GB / T 29075, "Procedure for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Spacecraft."

[0080] 3. Quantitative evaluation of tasks and security risks

[0081] Collect data on the probability of occurrence of events at the bottom of the fault tree, conduct a quantitative assessment of mission and safety risks, and obtain the probability of occurrence of LOC and LOM (PLOC and PLOM). For specific methods, refer to GB / T 29075, "Procedure for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Spacecraft."

[0082] 4. Importance ranking and key risk update

[0083] Use FV importance to rank the importance of the events at the bottom of the fault tree, and update the key risks again based on the ranking results. For specific methods, refer to GB / T 29075 "Procedure for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Spacecraft".

[0084] (4) Space mission and safety risk propagation prediction: using the updated key risks as nodes, a complex network method is used to establish a mission and safety risk propagation prediction model, perform mission and safety risk propagation prediction, and determine the key risks corresponding to high-load nodes. The specific steps are as follows:

[0085] 1. Establish a prediction model for mission and security risk propagation

[0086] Using the complex network method, the updated key risks are used as nodes to analyze the influence relationship between nodes and build a task and security risk propagation prediction model.

[0087] 2. Identify key risks corresponding to tasks and high-load nodes of security risks

[0088] The out-degree, in-degree and comprehensive degree of each node in the propagation prediction model are calculated, and the high-load nodes are determined according to the comprehensive degree, and then the key risks corresponding to the high-load nodes are determined.

[0089] (5) Space mission and safety risk judgment and decision-making, that is, using the hierarchical analysis method, comprehensively and comparatively analyzing the key risk response measures corresponding to high-load nodes, and making risk plan judgment and decision-making; specifically, it includes the following steps:

[0090] 1. Develop key risk plans

[0091] Taking into account constraints such as progress and funding, key risk plans corresponding to high-load nodes are formulated one by one.

[0092] 2. Key risk plan judgment and decision-making

[0093] The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is used to analyze key risk plans and determine the optimal risk plan.

[0094] (6) Active control of space mission and safety risks, that is, formulating active control measures based on the determined optimal risk plan and verifying the effectiveness of the control measures, including the following steps:

[0095] 1. Develop optimal risk plans and proactive risk control measures

[0096] Based on the optimal risk plan risk control measures, active control measures to eliminate or transfer hazardous sources are formulated from the perspective of product design.

[0097] 2. Verify the effectiveness of measures

[0098] The effectiveness of the identified active control measures shall be verified through evaluation, analysis, simulation, testing, etc. If the effectiveness does not meet the requirements, the risk active control measures shall be re-analyzed and formulated until the requirements are met.

[0099] In summary, the above are only preferred embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of protection of the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent replacements, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A comprehensive control method for space mission risks and safety risks, characterized by: The steps include: Identification and analysis of space mission and safety risks: Identify mission risks that affect mission success and safety risks that affect astronaut safety. Determine the likelihood of risk occurrence and severity of consequences through a comprehensive risk rating method. Conduct qualitative analysis and ranking of identified risks to determine key risks. Space mission and safety risk response monitoring: Develop and implement risk response measures, monitor changes in the likelihood of risk occurrence and severity of consequences, re-analyze and prioritize risks after measures are taken, and update key risks; Space mission and safety risk modeling and evaluation: Using the updated key risks as baseline events, we use probabilistic risk assessment methods to build a space mission and safety risk model, collect data on the probability of occurrence of baseline events, conduct quantitative assessments of mission and safety risks, and update key risks again by ranking them by importance. Space mission and safety risk propagation prediction: Using the updated key risks as nodes, a complex network method is used to establish a mission and safety risk propagation prediction model to predict mission and safety risk propagation and determine the key risks corresponding to high-load nodes; Space mission and safety risk assessment and decision-making: Using the analytic hierarchy process, we conduct a comprehensive comparative analysis of key risk plans corresponding to high-load nodes and make risk assessment and decision-making; Active control of space mission and safety risks: Develop active control measures based on the determined optimal risk plan and verify their effectiveness; The specific steps of space mission and safety risk modeling and evaluation are as follows: (1) Establish a full mission profile event tree model: Define two consequence states: astronaut casualty (LOC) and mission failure (LOM), and establish an event tree model for the full mission profile of a manned spacecraft launch. (2) Establish an intermediate task event fault tree model: take the intermediate event of the event tree as the top event and the updated key risk as the bottom event to establish an intermediate task event fault tree model; (3) Quantitative evaluation of mission and safety risks: Collect the probability data of the events at the bottom of the fault tree, conduct quantitative evaluation of mission and safety risks, and obtain the probability of occurrence of LOC and LOM PLOC and PLOM; (4) Importance ranking and key risk update: Use FV importance to rank the importance of events at the bottom of the fault tree, and update the key risks again based on the ranking results.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein In the space mission and safety risk identification and analysis, a clue table is used to identify mission risks that affect mission success.

3. The method according to claim 2, wherein The specific steps for space mission and safety risk identification and analysis are as follows: (1) Identification of space mission and safety risks: Space risks are divided into two categories: mission and safety. Mission and safety risks are identified through the risk clue table method. (2) Space mission and safety risk analysis: Conduct qualitative analysis of identified risks from two dimensions: the likelihood of risk occurrence and the severity of consequences, and obtain a comprehensive risk rating for each risk; (3) Determination of space mission and key safety risks: Based on the comprehensive risk rating results, the risks with comprehensive rating results of IV and V are selected as mission and key safety risks; a set of influencing factors is constructed to form classification samples, and then the samples are classified and processed by fuzzy clustering method to obtain the strategy set of each player.

4. The method according to claim 3, wherein The specific steps for space mission and safety risk response monitoring are as follows: (1) Space missions and safety risk response: a) For high-risk projects with comprehensive risk levels of IV and V, formulate response measures to eliminate or reduce risks and implement them in all stages of development and production. At the same time, use calculations, analysis, and testing methods to verify the effectiveness of risk response measures, strengthen implementation effect evaluation, and re-evaluate the comprehensive technical risks after the measures are implemented; b) For medium-risk projects with an overall risk rating of III, they will be the focus of node quality control and milestone reviews, and will be closely monitored in all subsequent development and production stages. At the same time, effective measures will be taken in conjunction with the development process to ensure that technical risks are reduced to an acceptable level before transitioning to a new stage. c) For low-risk projects with comprehensive risk levels of II and I, monitor, track and record their subsequent status changes to prevent their hazard levels from increasing; d) For technical risks that cannot be eliminated, reduced or transferred and cannot reach an acceptable level, a list of residual technical risks of the system shall be compiled, and an emergency plan shall be formulated and included in the system technical risk analysis and response report; (2) Space mission and safety risk monitoring: a) Designate a dedicated person to comprehensively and systematically collect and master technical risk information and promptly inform relevant personnel; b) Based on the monitoring situation, timely correct the system technical risk response measures, update the technical risk status information, and adjust the technical risk management work plan; c) Complete a system technical risk analysis and response report before transitioning to a new phase, provide a clear conclusion on whether the risk has been eliminated or reduced to an acceptable level, submit the report and include it in the scope of the special review; (3) Update of key risks of space missions and safety: Based on the risk monitoring situation, the likelihood of risk occurrence and the severity of the consequences, a comprehensive rating of space missions and safety risks is re-conducted, and the key risks are updated based on the rating results.

5. The method according to claim 1, wherein The specific steps for space mission and safety risk communication prediction are as follows: (1) Establish a task and safety risk propagation prediction model: Using a complex network approach, with the updated key risks as nodes, analyze the influence relationship between nodes, and build a task and safety risk propagation prediction model; (2) Determination of key risks corresponding to high-load nodes of task and security risks: Calculate the out-degree, in-degree and comprehensive degree of each node in the propagation prediction model, determine the high-load nodes based on the comprehensive degree, and then determine the key risks corresponding to the high-load nodes.

6. The method according to claim 5, wherein The specific steps for space mission and safety risk assessment and decision-making include the following: (1) Develop key risk plans: Taking into account the constraints of schedule and funding, key risk contingency plans corresponding to high-load nodes are formulated one by one; (2) Key risk plan judgment and decision-making: The hierarchical analysis method is used to analyze key risk plans and determine the optimal risk plan.

7. The method according to claim 5, wherein Active control of space mission and safety risks includes the following steps: (1) Formulate the optimal risk plan and proactive risk control measures: Based on the optimal risk plan and proactive risk control measures, formulate proactive control measures to eliminate or transfer hazard sources from the perspective of product design; (2) Verify the effectiveness of measures: For the determined active control measures, verify the effectiveness of the measures through evaluation, analysis, simulation and testing. If the effectiveness does not meet the requirements, re-analyze and formulate risk active control measures until the requirements are met.

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