Substation risk management method, system and storage medium

Abstract

The present application discloses a risk management method and system, and a storage medium for a substation, and belongs to the field of equipment management technology. The present application obtains the equipment status parameters, personnel status parameters, and environmental parameters of the inspection points in the substation in a historical preset time period; determines at least one risk factor of the inspection point according to the equipment status parameters, the personnel status parameters, and the environmental parameters; determines the risk value corresponding to the inspection point according to each of the risk factors; wherein the risk value increases as the risk factor increases; determines the risk level corresponding to the risk value, and determines the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point according to the risk level. The technical solution solves the problem that when the inspection point abnormality is discovered during the inspection, the equipment in the substation has already been abnormal, which is not conducive to the planning and allocation of substation resources. The technical solution of the present application prevents and avoids the operation and maintenance abnormalities of the substation.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of equipment management, and in particular to a risk management method and system for a substation, and a storage medium. Background Art

[0002] At present, higher requirements are put forward for the demand and stability of social electricity consumption, and the business volume of power grid operation and maintenance is increasing day by day. The inspection requirements of related substation, transmission and distribution are further improved. In this context, intelligent unmanned substations have become an inevitable development trend. Automatic inspection methods based on image recognition, artificial intelligence, automation, robots and other technologies can avoid the safety risks of manual inspections, reduce the cost of manual operation and maintenance, and greatly improve the operation and maintenance efficiency of substations. Among the related technologies, the main ones are equipment inspections, personnel safety inspections and environmental safety inspections to detect related anomalies. However, when an abnormality at an inspection point is discovered by inspection, it means that the equipment status data has crossed the threshold and a fault has occurred, or the appearance of the equipment has serious defects and needs urgent maintenance, which is not conducive to the planning and allocation of substation resources.

[0003] The above contents are only used to assist in understanding the technical solution of the present application and do not constitute an admission that the above contents are prior art. Summary of the invention

[0004] The main purpose of this application is to provide a risk management method and system for a substation, and a storage medium, aiming to solve the technical problem that when an abnormality at a patrol point is discovered during patrol, the equipment in the substation has already become abnormal, which is not conducive to the planning and allocation of substation resources.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the present application provides a risk management method for a substation, the method comprising:

[0006] Obtain equipment status parameters, personnel status parameters and environmental parameters of inspection points within the substation during a historical preset time period;

[0007] Determine at least one risk factor of the inspection point according to the equipment status parameter, the personnel status parameter and the environmental parameter;

[0008] Determine the risk value corresponding to the inspection point according to each of the risk factors; wherein the risk value increases as the risk factor increases;

[0009] Determine the risk level corresponding to the risk value, and determine the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point according to the risk level.

[0010] In one embodiment, the risk factors include level factors, life factors, historical factors, and association factors; the step of determining at least one risk factor of the inspection point according to the equipment status parameters, the personnel status parameters, and the environmental parameters includes:

[0011] Determine the level factor according to the importance of the equipment type and the importance of the inspection point;

[0012] Determine the life factor based on the date the equipment was commissioned and the effective useful life of said equipment;

[0013] Determine the historical factor according to the proportion of the historical abnormal frequency of the inspection point;

[0014] The correlation factors are determined based on the correlation historical data of the inspection points in the inspection unit.

[0015] In one embodiment, the step of determining the life factor based on the activation date of the device and the limited service life of the device includes:

[0016] Determine the number of days the device has been enabled based on the device's enablement date and the current date;

[0017] The life factor is determined based on the ratio of the number of days the device has been in use to the effective service life of the device.

[0018] In one embodiment, the associated historical data includes the number of historical abnormalities in the inspection unit to which the inspection point belongs, the number of historical abnormalities of other devices of the same type of the device, the number of historical abnormalities of other inspection points of the same type as the inspection point, the number of historical abnormalities of the area to which the inspection point belongs, and the number of historical abnormalities of other devices of the same brand and model as the inspection point. The step of determining the associated factors according to the associated historical data of the inspection point in the inspection unit includes:

[0019] Obtain the sum of the number of historical abnormalities in the inspection unit to which the inspection point belongs, the number of historical abnormalities of other devices of the same type as the device, the number of historical abnormalities of other inspection points of the same type as the inspection point, the number of historical abnormalities in the area to which the inspection point belongs, and the number of historical abnormalities of other devices of the same brand and model as the device to which the inspection point belongs;

[0020] The association factor is determined according to the ratio of the sum value to the amount of the associated historical data.

[0021] In one embodiment, the step of determining the risk value corresponding to the inspection point according to each of the risk factors includes:

[0022] Severity is determined based on grade factors, and frequency index is determined based on lifespan factors, historical factors, and association factors;

[0023] Obtaining a probability index corresponding to the inspection point;

[0024] The risk value corresponding to the inspection point is determined according to the product of the severity, the frequency index and the probability index.

[0025] In one embodiment, the step of obtaining the probability index corresponding to the inspection point includes:

[0026] The level factor, the life factor, the history factor and the correlation factor are subjected to Poisson distribution calculation to obtain a probability index corresponding to the inspection point.

[0027] In one embodiment, the step of determining the risk value corresponding to the inspection point according to each of the risk factors further includes:

[0028] The degree of hazard is determined by the product of the grade factor, life factor, history factor and association factor;

[0029] The risk value corresponding to the inspection point is determined according to the probability index corresponding to the inspection point and the degree of hazard.

[0030] In one embodiment, before the step of determining the risk level corresponding to the risk value and determining the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point according to the risk level, the step further includes:

[0031] Divide the risk value into multiple risk value intervals; each risk value interval corresponds to a risk level;

[0032] Obtain the risk handling method corresponding to the risk level;

[0033] Establishing a mapping relationship between the risk value interval, the risk level corresponding to the risk value interval, and the risk handling method corresponding to the risk level;

[0034] The step of determining the risk level corresponding to the risk value, and determining the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point according to the risk level includes:

[0035] Determine a risk value interval corresponding to the risk value, and a mapping relationship corresponding to the risk value interval;

[0036] The risk level and risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point are determined based on the risk value interval and the mapping relationship.

[0037] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application also provides a risk management system for a substation, the risk management system for a substation comprising:

[0038] An acquisition module is used to obtain equipment status parameters, personnel status parameters and environmental parameters of inspection points in the substation during a historical preset time period;

[0039] A first determination module, configured to determine at least one risk factor of the inspection point according to the equipment status parameter, the personnel status parameter and the environmental parameter;

[0040] A second determination module is used to determine the risk value corresponding to the risk factor according to each of the risk factors and the risk probability corresponding to the inspection point;

[0041] The third determination module is used to determine the risk level to which the risk value belongs, and determine the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point according to the risk level.

[0042] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores a risk management program for a substation. When the risk management program for a substation is executed by a processor, the steps of the risk management method for a substation as described above are implemented.

[0043] A technical solution of a risk management method and system and storage medium for a substation provided in an embodiment of the present application, the present application obtains the equipment status parameters, personnel status parameters and environmental parameters of the inspection points in the substation in a historical preset time period, and then determines at least one risk factor of the inspection point according to the equipment status parameters, personnel status parameters and environmental parameters. After determining the risk factors, the risk value corresponding to the inspection point is determined according to each risk factor; after determining the risk value, the risk level corresponding to the risk value is determined, and the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point is determined according to the risk level. Since the present application identifies and monitors the risk-related factors of the inspection points of the substation, calculates and predicts the probability of risk occurrence of the inspection points, it provides an efficient management means for the safe operation and maintenance of the substation, so that the operation and maintenance anomalies of the substation are prevented and avoided, the operation and maintenance efficiency is improved, and the operation and maintenance cost is reduced. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0044] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a flow chart of a first embodiment of a risk management method for a substation of the present application;

[0045] Figure 2 This is a detailed flow chart of step S120 of the first embodiment of the risk management method for a substation of the present application;

[0046] Figure 3 This is a detailed flow chart of step S130 of the first embodiment of the risk management method for a substation of the present application;

[0047] Figure 4This is another detailed flow chart of step S130 of the first embodiment of the risk management method for a substation of the present application;

[0048] Figure 5 Schematic diagram of the architecture of the risk management method for substations in this application.

[0049] The realization of the purpose, functional features and advantages of this application will be further explained in conjunction with the embodiments and with reference to the accompanying drawings. The above-mentioned drawings are only an embodiment diagram, not the entire invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0050] In order to better understand the above technical solution, exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure will be described in more detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Although exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure are shown in the accompanying drawings, it should be understood that the present disclosure can be implemented in various forms and should not be limited by the embodiments described herein. On the contrary, these embodiments are provided to enable a more thorough understanding of the present disclosure and to fully convey the scope of the present disclosure to those skilled in the art.

[0051] The technical solution of the present application will be described below by way of embodiments:

[0052] like Figure 1 As shown, in the first embodiment of the present application, the risk management method of the substation of the present application includes the following steps:

[0053] Step S110, obtaining equipment status parameters, personnel status parameters and environmental parameters of inspection points in the substation during a historical preset time period;

[0054] Step S120, determining at least one risk factor of the inspection point according to the equipment status parameter, the personnel status parameter and the environmental parameter;

[0055] Step S130, determining a risk value corresponding to the inspection point according to each of the risk factors; wherein the risk value increases as the risk factor increases;

[0056] Step S140, determining the risk level corresponding to the risk value, and determining the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point according to the risk level.

[0057] In this embodiment, the inspection work of the substation can be divided into three categories. The first category is the inspection of equipment, which mainly focuses on the working status monitoring of primary equipment such as transformers, circuit breakers, disconnectors, mutual inductors, and the identification of abnormal appearance of equipment; the second category is the inspection of personnel safety, including whether there are safety intrusions such as personnel intrusion, or illegal operations such as not wearing safety helmets, not wearing work clothes, smoking, etc.; the third category is the inspection of environmental safety, such as whether there is water accumulation in the work area, whether there are small animals invading, etc. A typical substation inspection system can cover nearly a thousand inspection points, of which the number of equipment-related inspection points exceeds 95%. 7*24 hours high-frequency inspection can timely discover related abnormalities and improve the fault response speed. Under the above inspection mode, abnormalities can be discovered, but when the abnormality of the inspection point is discovered by the inspection, it often means that the equipment status data has crossed the threshold, a fault has occurred, or the appearance of the equipment has serious defects and needs urgent maintenance, which is not conducive to the planning and allocation of substation resources. Therefore, in order to solve the above problems, reduce the difficulty of operation and maintenance, and improve the efficiency of operation and maintenance, this application proposes a risk management method for substations. This method is based on the inspection point data of the substation. Through statistics and prediction of the inspection data, the risk value of each inspection point is calculated, and necessary preventive measures are taken for the inspection points with higher risk values.

[0058] In this embodiment, the historical preset time period can be selected according to the actual situation. The equipment status parameters, personnel status parameters and environmental parameters are the parameters corresponding to the inspection points in the substation in the historical preset time period. A inspection point can include parameters such as equipment status parameters, personnel status parameters and environmental parameters at the same time, and each inspection point corresponds to a risk value. The risk value can be composed of at least one risk factor, and the risk value increases as the risk factor increases.

[0059] In this embodiment, refer to Figure 5 , Figure 5 The schematic diagram of the architecture of the substation risk management method of the present application is shown below. The substation risk management method of the present application generally includes the following three processes: risk identification process, risk monitoring process, and risk response process. The implementation steps of these processes are described below.

[0060] First, the risk identification process.

[0061] In this embodiment, the types of inspection points in the substation can be divided into three categories, specifically, the inspection point types can be divided into three categories: equipment, personnel, and environment. Among them, the types of inspection points of the equipment type can be divided into more than 20 types of equipment and more than 600 types of point types according to the technical specifications of "Technical Requirements for Online Intelligent Inspection System of UHV AC Substation of State Grid Corporation of China". Specifically, the inspection points of the equipment type can be divided into different equipment types and inspection points according to the main equipment monitored by the substation and the working status of the equipment. For example, the oil-immersed transformer is an equipment type, and its inspection points can be divided into body appearance, body casing body oil level meter, body casing oil pressure gauge, body casing appearance, etc., and the number can be as many as dozens. The inspection points of the personnel type can be divided into types such as intrusion detection, not wearing a safety helmet, not wearing work clothes, smoking behavior, etc. The inspection points of the environment type can be divided into regional water accumulation, small animal invasion, fireworks abnormality, etc. Each inspection point has a corresponding spatial area, which indicates the location where the equipment is placed, the location where personnel violations occur, and the spatial location where abnormalities exist.

[0062] In this embodiment, risk factors include level factors, life factors, historical factors, and associated factors. The substation can be divided into four areas: total step-down transformer, iron-front transformer, blast furnace transformer, and steel-bar transformer. Each inspection point belongs to one of the areas. In this embodiment, in a certain scenario, the upper oil temperature inspection point of the main transformer of the oil-immersed transformer A has the following risk factors:

[0063] 1) Level factor Rl, the higher the level, the greater the risk impact.

[0064] 2) Life risk factor Ra, the larger the value, the higher the risk.

[0065] 3) Historical factor Rh, the larger the value, the higher the risk.

[0066] 4) The larger the correlation factor Rr, the higher the risk.

[0067] According to the above content, a risk value R is set for each inspection point. In the subsequent risk identification process, the risk value will be updated according to the relevant risk factors. The higher the risk value, the higher the inspection point needs to be dealt with first. Specifically, the risk influencing factors and related factors of each inspection point will be analyzed below.

[0068] (1) The importance of various types of equipment in the substation varies. For example, the transformer is the most important equipment in the substation and also the equipment with the highest economic value. Therefore, if the inspection of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, its risk impact is higher. Therefore, a default level factor Rl is set for each inspection point type. The higher the level, the greater the risk impact.

[0069] (2) Some static parameter data that are not related to the inspection action also have a risk impact on equipment abnormality. For example, the equipment has an estimated service life, and a longer activation time also means a higher risk of failure. Therefore, a life risk factor Ra is set for each device based on its service life and estimated life. The larger the value, the higher the risk.

[0070] (3) Past anomalies and failures at a checkpoint mean that this checkpoint, or even other checkpoints of this type, may have the same problem. Therefore, a history factor Rh is set for each type of checkpoint. The larger the value, the higher the risk.

[0071] (4) In the conventional inspection mode, according to the correlation between the inspection points, a group of inspection points will be grouped together for management and operation, which is called an inspection unit. The abnormality of an inspection point in an inspection unit means that other inspection points in the inspection unit are more or less affected by the risk of the abnormality of the inspection point. Therefore, a correlation factor Rr is set for each inspection unit. The larger the value, the higher the risk.

[0072] (5) Inspection anomalies of personnel and environment will have an impact on the equipment in the area. For example, if a staff member smokes illegally, there will be a greater risk impact on the equipment nearby. Therefore, a regional risk factor Rs is set for each area. The larger the value, the higher the risk.

[0073] Through the above analysis, various risk influencing factors are identified for the inspection points. In the subsequent risk monitoring process, these risk factors will be collected, calculated and predicted.

[0074] Second, the risk monitoring process.

[0075] The process is mainly divided into three steps: risk factor collection, risk probability prediction, and risk value calculation.

[0076] (1) Based on the risk factors identified in the above risk identification process, the level factor Rl, life factor Ra, historical factor Rh, correlation factor Rr, and regional risk factor Rs are collected.

[0077] (2) Predict the future abnormal state of each inspection point. Here, it can be assumed that the abnormality of the inspection point is an independent probability event, and the Poisson distribution formula can be used to calculate the probability of risk occurrence in the future time period.

[0078] (3) Taking into account the above risk factors and risk probabilities, calculate the risk value. The risk value can be calculated using the following formula:

[0079] R=f(Rl, Ra, Rh, Rr, Rp);

[0080] Among them, Rl is the level factor, which belongs to the category of severity; Ra is the life factor, Rh is the historical factor and Rr is the correlation factor. Function f can be selected by integrating the complexity of system design and manual experience. In actual processing, each risk factor and risk probability can be normalized (range 0 to 1) first.

[0081] Third, risk response process.

[0082] After determining the risk value corresponding to the inspection point, determine the risk level corresponding to the risk value, and then determine the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point according to the risk level. For the above risk levels, different risk handling methods are adopted, which can be referred to in the following table:

[0083] Risk Level Risk Description Risk management approach 1 Low Tolerable risk, self-prevention principle 2 middle Risks that require attention and risk reporting principles 3 high Unbearable risk, risk avoidance principle

[0084] 1) Risk prevention: The system automatically generates low-frequency inspection tasks for risk items, which are scheduled by the inspection system and executed during idle time.

[0085] 2) Risk reporting: Push risk warnings and risk reports to operation and maintenance personnel for review.

[0086] 3) Risk avoidance: Automatically generate work orders for risk items and send them to operation and maintenance personnel for execution, confirmation, and resolution.

[0087] In one embodiment, before determining the risk level corresponding to the risk value and determining the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point according to the risk level, the step further includes: dividing the risk value into multiple risk value intervals; wherein each risk value interval corresponds to a risk level; obtaining the risk handling method corresponding to the risk level; establishing a mapping relationship between the risk value interval, the risk level corresponding to the risk value interval, and the risk handling method corresponding to the risk level. Then, when determining the risk level corresponding to the risk value and determining the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point according to the risk level, the risk value interval corresponding to the risk value and the mapping relationship corresponding to the risk value interval can be determined; the risk level and risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point are determined based on the risk value interval and the mapping relationship. Specifically, each risk level corresponds to a different risk response strategy. The range of the risk value interval can be set according to actual conditions.

[0088] In the technical solution of this embodiment, the present application obtains the equipment status parameters, personnel status parameters and environmental parameters of the inspection points in the substation in the historical preset time period, and then determines at least one risk factor of the inspection point according to the equipment status parameters, personnel status parameters and environmental parameters. After determining the risk factors, the risk value corresponding to the inspection point is determined according to each risk factor; after determining the risk value, the risk level corresponding to the risk value is determined, and the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point is determined according to the risk level. Since the present application identifies and monitors the risk-related factors of the inspection points of the substation, calculates and predicts the probability of risk occurrence of the inspection points, it provides an efficient management means for the safe operation and maintenance of the substation, so that the operation and maintenance anomalies of the substation are prevented and avoided, the operation and maintenance efficiency is improved, and the operation and maintenance costs are reduced.

[0089] like Figure 2 As shown, Figure 2 This is a detailed flow chart of step S120 of the first embodiment of the present application. Figure 2 The following steps are involved:

[0090] Step S121, determining a level factor according to the importance of the equipment type and the importance of the inspection point;

[0091] Step S122, determining a life factor according to the activation date of the device and the effective service life of the device;

[0092] Step S123, determining the historical factor according to the proportion of the historical abnormal frequency of the inspection point;

[0093] Step S124, determining the correlation factor according to the correlation history data of the inspection points in the inspection unit.

[0094] In this embodiment, the risk factors include: level factor Rl, life factor Ra, history factor Rh, association factor Rr, regional risk factor Rs, etc. The risk factors can be determined based on equipment status parameters, personnel status parameters and environmental parameters. Specifically:

[0095] a. R1, the level factor, can be manually specified based on the importance of the equipment type, the importance of the inspection point, and the experience in actual work. Specifically, the R1 range is set to 0 to 1, and its value is referenced in the following table:

[0096] Risk level factor R1 0.1 unimportant 0.3 Slightly important 0.5 General Important 0.7 More important 0.9 Very important

[0097] In this embodiment, the upper oil temperature of the main transformer of the oil-immersed transformer Rl = 0.9, which is the highest risk level. This data is determined by system initialization and can be automatically updated or manually adjusted by the system according to the operation and maintenance requirements in different periods during the system operation. For example, during the peak period of high heat and electricity consumption in summer, the Rl of the cable body load current of the power cable is adjusted from 0.5 to 0.9, because in this stage scenario, the power load of the equipment increases dramatically, and problems are very likely to occur.

[0098] b. Life factor Ra can be determined by data such as the equipment activation date and effective service life of the equipment in the equipment ledger.

[0099] In one embodiment, the step of determining the equipment life risk life according to the commissioning date of the equipment and the limited service life of the equipment includes:

[0100] Step S1221, determining the number of days the device has been activated according to the activation date of the device and the current date;

[0101] Step S1222: determining a lifespan factor according to a ratio of the number of days the device has been enabled to the effective service life of the device.

[0102] In this embodiment, the life factor is calculated as follows: Ra = number of days the equipment has been in use / number of days expected to be in use of the equipment. The number of days expected to be in use of the equipment in the formula is the effective service life of the equipment. Ra ranges from 0 to 1. If it is greater than 1, it means that the equipment has been overused and the risk is extremely high, so it is set to the highest value of 1. In this embodiment, it is assumed that Ra of the oil-immersed transformer is 0.5. This data is determined by system initialization. As the system runs, the Ra value automatically increases with the number of days the equipment is in use.

[0103] c. Historical factor Rh is obtained by counting the historical abnormal data of the inspection points. The statistical method and statistical dimension are selected depending on the complexity of the system design. For example, the proportion of the historical abnormal frequency of the inspection points can be counted.

[0104] In this embodiment, it is assumed that the substation had 100 inspection anomalies in the past year, and the number of abnormalities in the upper oil temperature of the oil-immersed transformer of the main transformer A and the abnormal frequency ratio are counted. It is assumed that the statistical data is as follows:

[0105] Device Name Point name Abnormal number Abnormal frequency ratio Main transformer A Oil-immersed transformer main transformer upper oil temperature 3 0.03

[0106] d. The correlation factor Rr is obtained by statistically analyzing the historical data associated with the inspection points.

[0107] In one embodiment, the step of determining the correlation factor according to the correlation history data of the inspection points in the inspection unit includes:

[0108] Step S1241, obtaining the sum of the number of historical abnormalities in the inspection unit to which the inspection point belongs, the number of historical abnormalities of other devices of the same type as the device, the number of historical abnormalities of other inspection points of the same type as the inspection point, the number of historical abnormalities in the area to which the inspection point belongs, and the number of historical abnormalities of other devices of the same brand and model as the inspection point;

[0109] Step S1242: determining the association factor according to the ratio of the sum value to the quantity of the associated historical data.

[0110] In this embodiment, the historical anomalies in the inspection unit to which the inspection point belongs, the historical anomalies of other devices of the same type as the device to which the inspection point belongs, the historical anomalies of other inspection points of the same type as the inspection point, the historical anomalies of the area to which the inspection point belongs, and the historical anomalies of other devices of the same brand and model as the device to which the inspection point belongs are all related historical data, and the related risk value is calculated by combining all the related historical data. The related risk value is generally calculated using the following formula.

[0111]

[0112] Rri is each correlation factor and needs to be normalized to between 0 and 1.

[0113] Specifically, in this embodiment, the following five correlation factors may be counted:

[0114] (1) The historical abnormal frequency ratio Rr1 within the inspection unit to which the inspection point belongs;

[0115] (2) The historical abnormal frequency ratio of other equipment of the same type as the equipment at the inspection point is Rr2;

[0116] (3) The historical abnormal frequency ratio of other inspection points of the same type as the inspection point is Rr3;

[0117] (4) Historical abnormal frequency Rr4 of the area to which the inspection point belongs;

[0118] (5) The historical abnormal frequency ratio of other equipment of the same brand and model as the inspection point is Rr5;

[0119] Assume that the statistical data in this embodiment are as follows:

[0120]

[0121] In this embodiment, Rr=0.12 is calculated according to the following formula.

[0122] In this embodiment, the present application determines the level factor according to the importance of the equipment type and the importance of the inspection point; determines the life factor according to the activation date of the equipment and the effective service life of the equipment; determines the historical factor according to the proportion of the historical abnormal frequency of the inspection point; and determines the technical scheme of the associated factor according to the associated historical data of the inspection point in the inspection unit. The data source and processing method of each factor are determined through the above scheme, thereby determining the various risk factors of the inspection point and monitoring the risks.

[0123] like Figure 3 As shown, Figure 3 This is a detailed flow chart of step S130 of the first embodiment of the present application. Figure 3 The following steps are involved:

[0124] Step S131, determining the severity according to the level factor, and determining the frequency index according to the life factor, the history factor and the association factor.

[0125] Step S132, obtaining the probability index corresponding to the inspection point.

[0126] In one embodiment, the level factor, the life factor, the historical factor and the associated factor can be subjected to Poisson distribution calculation to obtain the probability index corresponding to the inspection point. Specifically, the future abnormal state of each inspection point is predicted. It can be assumed here that the abnormality of the inspection point is an independent probability event, and the Poisson distribution formula can be used to calculate the risk occurrence probability Rp (i.e., probability index) of the future time period. Assume that in this embodiment, in the past year, the monthly average number of abnormal upper oil temperature of the main transformer of the oil-immersed transformer of the main transformer A is λ = 0.25 times. The following formula is used to calculate that the probability of one abnormality occurring at the inspection point in the next month is 19.47%.

[0127]

[0128] Step S133: determining the risk value corresponding to the inspection point according to the product of the severity, the frequency index and the probability index.

[0129] In this embodiment, the above risk factors and risk probability are comprehensively considered to calculate the risk value R. The risk value can be calculated by multiplication method: risk value = probability index * frequency index * severity. Specifically, the risk value calculation function is: R = f(Rl, Ra, Rh, Rr, Rp), where the risk calculation function f can be designed as follows:

[0130]

[0131] Among them, the level factor Rl belongs to the severity category, Ra is the life factor, Rh is the historical factor and Rr is the correlation factor, all of which belong to the frequency index category. Ri is each risk probability factor. As shown in the following table:

[0132]

[0133] The risk factors and probability values ​​of the upper oil temperature inspection points of the oil-immersed transformer of the main transformer A in this embodiment are calculated as follows:

[0134]

[0135] In actual processing, in this embodiment, each risk factor and risk probability is normalized (range 0 to 1), and the risk level is graded according to the following table:

[0136] Value at Risk Risk Level Risk Description 0～0.3 1 Low 0.3～0.6 2 middle 0.6～1 3 high

[0137] For example, suppose the VaR calculation result is: According to the risk level classification table, it can be determined that this inspection point is of low risk.

[0138] In the technical solution of this embodiment, the risks of the inspection points are monitored by determining the severity based on the level factors, and determining the frequency index based on the life factors, historical factors and related factors; obtaining the probability index corresponding to the inspection point; and determining the risk value corresponding to the inspection point based on the product of the severity, the frequency index and the probability index.

[0139] like Figure 4 As shown, Figure 4 This is another detailed flowchart of step S130 in the first embodiment of the present application. Figure 4 The following steps are involved:

[0140] Step S231, determining the degree of harm according to the product of the level factor, the lifespan factor, the history factor and the association factor;

[0141] Step S232: determining the risk value corresponding to the inspection point according to the probability index corresponding to the inspection point and the hazard degree.

[0142] In this embodiment, the matrix method can be used to calculate the risk value. A two-dimensional matrix is ​​constructed with the degree of harm and the probability index to locate the risk level. The degree of harm is a comprehensive consideration of the severity and the frequency index, so the degree of harm calculation method is designed here as follows:

[0143]

[0144] Among them, Ri is the frequency index and severity factor. In this application, the Rl level factor belongs to the severity category, and the Ra life factor, Rh history factor and Rr association factor belong to the frequency index category. According to the two factors of hazard degree and probability index, the risk area is located. Refer to the following table:

[0145]

[0146] For example, suppose the VaR calculation result is: Based on the two factors of hazard degree and probability index, the risk area where it is located is located as a low-risk area.

[0147] In this embodiment, the application determines the degree of hazard by multiplying the level factor, life factor, historical factor and correlation factor; determines the risk value corresponding to the inspection point according to the probability index corresponding to the inspection point and the degree of hazard, thereby monitoring the risk of the inspection point.

[0148] The embodiments of the present application provide an embodiment of a risk management method for a substation. It should be noted that although a logical order is shown in the flow chart, in some cases, the steps shown or described may be performed in an order different from that shown here.

[0149] Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the present application also provides a risk management system for a substation. The risk management system for a substation of the present application includes:

[0150] An acquisition module is used to obtain equipment status parameters, personnel status parameters and environmental parameters of inspection points in the substation during a historical preset time period;

[0151] The first determination module is used to determine at least one risk factor of the inspection point according to the equipment status parameter, the personnel status parameter and the environmental parameter. In one embodiment, the first determination module is also used to determine the level factor according to the importance of the equipment type and the importance of the inspection point; determine the life factor according to the activation date of the equipment and the effective service life of the equipment; determine the history factor according to the proportion of the historical abnormality frequency of the inspection point; and determine the association factor according to the associated historical data of the inspection point in the inspection unit. In one embodiment, the first determination module is also used to determine the number of days the equipment has been activated according to the activation date of the equipment and the current date; determine the life factor according to the ratio of the number of days the equipment has been activated to the effective service life of the equipment. In one embodiment, the first determination module is also used to obtain the sum of the number of historical abnormalities in the inspection unit to which the inspection point belongs, the number of historical abnormalities of other equipment of the same type as the equipment, the number of historical abnormalities of other inspection points of the same type as the inspection point, the number of historical abnormalities in the area to which the inspection point belongs, and the number of historical abnormalities of other equipment of the same brand and model as the equipment to which the inspection point belongs; and determine the association factor according to the ratio of the sum to the number of associated historical data.

[0152] The second determination module is used to determine the risk value corresponding to the risk factor according to each of the risk factors and the risk probability corresponding to the inspection point. In one embodiment, the second determination module is also used to determine the severity according to the level factor, and determine the frequency index according to the life factor, the historical factor and the correlation factor; obtain the probability index corresponding to the inspection point; and determine the risk value corresponding to the inspection point according to the product of the severity, the frequency index and the probability index. In one embodiment, the second determination module is also used to perform Poisson distribution calculation on the level factor, the life factor, the historical factor and the correlation factor to obtain the probability index corresponding to the inspection point. In one embodiment, the second determination module is also used to determine the degree of harm according to the product of the level factor, the life factor, the historical factor and the correlation factor; and determine the risk value corresponding to the inspection point according to the probability index corresponding to the inspection point and the degree of harm.

[0153] The third determination module is used to determine the risk level to which the risk value belongs, and determine the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point according to the risk level. In one embodiment, before the third determination module, there is also an establishment module, and the establishment module is used to divide the risk value into multiple risk value intervals; wherein each risk value interval corresponds to a risk level; obtain the risk handling method corresponding to the risk level; establish a mapping relationship between the risk value interval, the risk level corresponding to the risk value interval, and the risk handling method corresponding to the risk level. In one embodiment, the third determination module also includes determining the risk value interval corresponding to the risk value, and the mapping relationship corresponding to the risk value interval; based on the risk value interval and the mapping relationship, determine the risk level and risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point.

[0154] Since the substation risk management system provided in the embodiment of the present application is a substation risk management system adopted by the method of the embodiment of the present application, based on the method introduced in the embodiment of the present application, the person skilled in the art can understand the specific structure and deformation of the substation risk management system, so it is not repeated here. All substation risk management systems adopted by the method of the embodiment of the present application belong to the scope of protection of this application.

[0155] Based on the same inventive concept, an embodiment of the present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores a risk management program for a substation. When the risk management program for the substation is executed by a processor, the various steps of risk management of the substation as described above are implemented, and the same technical effect can be achieved. To avoid repetition, it will not be repeated here.

[0156] Since the computer-readable storage medium provided in the embodiments of the present application is a computer-readable storage medium used to implement the method of the embodiments of the present application, based on the method introduced in the embodiments of the present application, those skilled in the art can understand the specific structure and deformation of the computer-readable storage medium, so it is not repeated here. All computer-readable storage media used in the methods of the embodiments of the present application belong to the scope of protection of this application.

[0157] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application can adopt the form of complete hardware embodiments, complete software embodiments, or embodiments in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application can adopt the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable computer-readable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that contain computer-usable program code.

[0158] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0159] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0160] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process in the computer or other programmable device. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0161] It should be noted that in the claims, any reference signs placed between brackets shall not be construed as limiting the claims. The word "comprising" does not exclude the presence of components or steps not listed in the claims. The word "a" or "an" preceding a component does not exclude the presence of a plurality of such components. The present application may be implemented by means of hardware comprising several different components and by means of a suitably programmed computer. In a unit claim enumerating several means, several of these means may be embodied by the same item of hardware. The use of the words first, second, and third etc. does not indicate any order. These words may be interpreted as names.

[0162] Although the preferred embodiments of the present application have been described, those skilled in the art may make other changes and modifications to these embodiments once they have learned the basic creative concept. Therefore, the appended claims are intended to be interpreted as including the preferred embodiments and all changes and modifications falling within the scope of the present application.

[0163] Obviously, those skilled in the art can make various changes and modifications to the present application without departing from the spirit and scope of the present application. Thus, if these modifications and variations of the present application fall within the scope of the claims of the present application and their equivalents, the present application is also intended to include these modifications and variations.

Claims

1. A risk management method for a substation, characterized in that: The risk management method of the substation includes: Obtain equipment status parameters, personnel status parameters and environmental parameters of inspection points within the substation during a historical preset time period; Determine at least one risk factor of the inspection point according to the equipment status parameter, the personnel status parameter and the environmental parameter, wherein the risk factor includes an associated factor, and the step of determining the associated factor according to the associated historical data of the inspection point in the inspection unit includes: obtaining the sum of the historical abnormality times in the inspection unit to which the inspection point belongs, the historical abnormality times of other equipment of the same type of equipment, the historical abnormality times of other inspection points of the same type as the inspection point, the historical abnormality times of the area to which the inspection point belongs, and the historical abnormality times of other equipment of the same brand and model as the equipment to which the inspection point belongs, and determine the associated factor according to the ratio of the sum to the number of the associated historical data; Determining a risk value corresponding to the inspection point according to each of the risk factors, wherein the risk value increases as the risk factor increases; Determine the risk level corresponding to the risk value, and determine the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point according to the risk level.

2. The risk management method for a substation according to claim 1, characterized in that: The risk factors also include level factors, life factors and historical factors; the step of determining at least one risk factor of the inspection point according to the equipment status parameters, the personnel status parameters and the environmental parameters also includes: Determine the level factor according to the importance of the equipment type and the importance of the inspection point; Determine the life factor based on the date the equipment was commissioned and the effective useful life of said equipment; The historical factor is determined according to the proportion of the historical abnormal frequency of the inspection point.

3. The risk management method for a substation according to claim 2, characterized in that: The step of determining the life factor according to the activation date of the equipment and the effective service life of the equipment comprises: Determine the number of days the device has been enabled based on the device's enablement date and the current date; The life factor is determined based on the ratio of the number of days the device has been in use to the effective service life of the device.

4. The risk management method for a substation according to claim 2, characterized in that: The step of determining the risk value corresponding to the inspection point according to each of the risk factors comprises: Severity is determined based on grade factors, and frequency index is determined based on lifespan factors, historical factors, and association factors; Obtaining a probability index corresponding to the inspection point; The risk value corresponding to the inspection point is determined according to the product of the severity, the frequency index and the probability index.

5. The risk management method for a substation according to claim 4, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the probability index corresponding to the inspection point includes: The level factor, the life factor, the history factor and the correlation factor are subjected to Poisson distribution calculation to obtain a probability index corresponding to the inspection point.

6. The risk management method for a substation according to claim 2, characterized in that: The step of determining the risk value corresponding to the inspection point according to each of the risk factors also includes: The degree of hazard is determined by the product of the grade factor, life factor, history factor and association factor; The risk value corresponding to the inspection point is determined according to the probability index corresponding to the inspection point and the degree of hazard.

7. The risk management method for a substation according to claim 1, characterized in that: Before the step of determining the risk level corresponding to the risk value and determining the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point according to the risk level, the step further includes: Divide the risk value into multiple risk value intervals; each risk value interval corresponds to a risk level; Obtain the risk handling method corresponding to the risk level; Establishing a mapping relationship between the risk value interval, the risk level corresponding to the risk value interval, and the risk handling method corresponding to the risk level; The step of determining the risk level corresponding to the risk value, and determining the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point according to the risk level includes: Determine a risk value interval corresponding to the risk value, and a mapping relationship corresponding to the risk value interval; The risk level and risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point are determined based on the risk value interval and the mapping relationship.

8. A risk management system for a substation, characterized in that: The risk management system of the substation comprises: An acquisition module is used to obtain equipment status parameters, personnel status parameters and environmental parameters of inspection points in the substation during a historical preset time period; A first determination module is used to determine at least one risk factor of the inspection point according to the equipment status parameter, the personnel status parameter and the environmental parameter, wherein the risk factor includes an associated factor, and the step of determining the associated factor according to the associated historical data of the inspection point in the inspection unit includes: obtaining the sum of the historical abnormality times in the inspection unit to which the inspection point belongs, the historical abnormality times of other equipment of the same type of the equipment, the historical abnormality times of other inspection points of the same type as the inspection point, the historical abnormality times of the area to which the inspection point belongs, and the historical abnormality times of other equipment of the same brand and model as the equipment to which the inspection point belongs, and determining the associated factor according to the ratio of the sum to the number of the associated historical data; A second determination module is used to determine the risk value corresponding to the inspection point according to each of the risk factors, wherein the risk value increases as the risk factor increases; The third determination module is used to determine the risk level corresponding to the risk value, and determine the risk handling method corresponding to the inspection point according to the risk level.

9. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores a risk management program for a substation, and when the risk management program for a substation is executed by a processor, the steps of the risk management method for a substation described in any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

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