A method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction. The total amount of urban housing construction in a future year is calculated by sampling through relevant data such as population, land use and planning. Specifically, the total amount of urban housing construction is divided into the total amount of residential buildings and the total amount of public buildings, and the total amount of urban housing construction is calculated separately to finally obtain the total amount of urban housing construction in a future year. The prediction result of the present invention is relatively accurate and can serve multiple tasks such as national land space planning and implementation supervision.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to a prediction method, in particular to a method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction. Background Art

[0002] Compared with construction land, the amount of urban housing construction can more accurately reflect the functional layout of the city. Carrying out the prediction of the total amount of housing construction can serve many tasks such as the preparation of national land space planning, implementation supervision and urban refined management. However, there are many factors that affect the total amount of urban housing construction. Each city has different climate conditions, resource endowments, natural ecological bases, geographical conditions, transportation conditions, infrastructure support, and social and economic development needs. Therefore, how to relatively scientifically and accurately predict the total amount of urban housing construction has become a major problem. At present, there is no relevant prediction method for the total amount of urban housing construction. Summary of the invention

[0003] In order to solve the shortcomings of the above-mentioned technology, the present invention provides a method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction.

[0004] In order to solve the above technical problems, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is: a method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction: based on population, land use and planning data, the total amount of urban housing construction in a future year is calculated by sampling;

[0005] Split the total amount of urban housing construction into the total amount of residential buildings and the total amount of public buildings, and calculate the total amount of residential buildings in a certain future year and the total amount of public buildings in a certain future year respectively, so as to finally obtain the total amount of urban housing construction in a certain future year.

[0006] Furthermore, the following processing steps are specifically included:

[0007] Step S1, obtaining the per capita residential building area index value and the permanent population index value in the urban planning, as well as the current per capita residential building area and the permanent population;

[0008] Step S2, calculating the rate of change of per capita residential building area and the rate of change of permanent population;

[0009] Step S3, calculating and predicting the per capita residential area in a future year based on the current per capita residential building area and the per capita residential building area change rate;

[0010] Step S4: Calculate and predict the number of permanent residents in the city in a certain year in the future based on the current number of permanent residents and the rate of change of the number of permanent residents;

[0011] Step S5, calculating the total amount of residential housing construction in the future based on the predicted per capita residential building area and the number of permanent residents in the city in a certain year in the future;

[0012] Step S6: sampling and obtaining the land area of ​​each type, the existing building area and the average number of floors of each type of land corresponding to the public buildings in the current and past years;

[0013] Step S7, calculating the proportion of the current housing construction area of ​​public buildings corresponding to various types of land in the current and past years;

[0014] Step S8, calculating the rate of change of the proportion of public buildings corresponding to each type of land and the rate of change of the average number of floors of houses;

[0015] Step S9, calculating the proportion of houses and the average number of floors in each type of land for public buildings in a certain year in the future;

[0016] Step S10, obtaining the land areas of various types of public buildings corresponding to the current and past years;

[0017] Step S11, calculating the area change rate of various types of land corresponding to public buildings;

[0018] Step S12, calculating the land area of ​​each type of public building corresponding to a certain year in the future;

[0019] Step S13, calculating the housing construction volume corresponding to each type of land for public buildings in a certain year in the future;

[0020] Step S14, calculating the total amount of housing construction in all types of land corresponding to public buildings in a certain year in the future;

[0021] Step S15: Calculate the total amount of urban buildings based on the calculated total amount of future residential housing construction and the total amount of public buildings corresponding to all types of land.

[0022] Furthermore, in step S2, the calculation of the rate of change of per capita residential building area is as shown in Formula 1:

[0023]

[0024] Where a is the rate of change of per capita residential building area, S m is the per capita residential area determined in the planning year, S n is the current per capita residential building area in the city; m is the planning year, and n is the current year;

[0025] The calculation of the rate of change of permanent population is shown in Formula 2:

[0026]

[0027] Where b is the rate of change of permanent population, P m The number of permanent residents determined by the city master plan, P nis the current permanent population of the city, m is the planning year, and n is the current year.

[0028] Furthermore, in step S3, the calculation of per capita residential area in a future year is as shown in Formula 3:

[0029] S i =S n +a×i Formula 3,

[0030] In the formula, S i is the per capita residential area after year i, S n is the current per capita residential building area in the city, a is the rate of change of per capita residential building area, and i is the forecast period in years.

[0031] Furthermore, the calculation of the number of permanent residents in a city in a certain year in the future is shown in Formula 4:

[0032] P i =P n +b×i Formula 4,

[0033] Where P i is the number of permanent residents in the city after year i, P n is the current number of permanent residents in the city, b is the rate of change of the permanent population, and i is the forecast period in years.

[0034] Furthermore, in step S5, the total amount of future residential housing construction is calculated as shown in Formula 5:

[0035] S 住宅i =S i ×P i Formula 5,

[0036] In the formula, S 住宅i is the total amount of residential housing construction in the city after year i, S i is the per capita residential area after year i, P i is the number of permanent residents in the city after year i.

[0037] Further, in step S6, public buildings correspond to various types of land, including commercial and service land, public management and service land, and transportation land in land survey;

[0038] The building area of ​​each type of land use is the floor area of ​​the building within each land use type; the average number of floors is calculated as follows: within the sample range, the total number of floors of the building within each land use type divided by the number of building floors within the corresponding land use type.

[0039] Furthermore, in step S14, the total amount of housing buildings corresponding to all types of land in a certain year in the future is calculated as shown in Formula 14:

[0040] T 公共建筑i =T 商i +T 公i +T 交i Formula 14,

[0041] T 公共建筑i T is the total amount of public buildings in the city after year i, 商i T is the total number of buildings in the commercial and service areas of the city i years later, 公i T is the total amount of buildings in the public administration and service land of the city i years later, 交i It is the total amount of buildings within the city’s transportation land after i years.

[0042] Furthermore, in step S15, the total amount of urban buildings is calculated as shown in Formula 15:

[0043] Q i =S 住宅i +T 公共建筑i Formula 15,

[0044] In the formula, Q i S is the total housing construction volume in the city after year i, 住宅i T is the total residential housing construction in the city after year i, 公共建筑i is the total number of public buildings in the city i years later.

[0045] The present invention aims to solve the problem that there is no method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction at present. In order to break through the bottleneck of the existing technology, a method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction is disclosed. The total amount of urban housing construction in a future year is calculated by sampling through relevant data such as population, land use and planning. Specifically, the total amount of urban housing construction is divided into the total amount of residential buildings and the total amount of public buildings, and the results are calculated separately. The results are relatively accurate and can serve multiple tasks such as national land space planning and implementation supervision. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0046] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the process of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0047] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0048] A method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction, such as Figure 1 As shown, the following processing steps are included:

[0049] Step S1, obtaining the per capita residential building area index value and the permanent population index value in the urban planning, as well as the current per capita residential building area and the permanent population;

[0050] Among them, per capita residential building area refers to the average residential building area per person calculated based on the permanent population; it is calculated by dividing the total residential building area of ​​the city by the permanent population of the city.

[0051] Step S2, calculating the rate of change of per capita residential building area and the rate of change of permanent population;

[0052] Among them, the calculation method of the change rate of per capita residential building area is shown in Formula 1:

[0053]

[0054] Where a is the rate of change of per capita residential building area, S m is the per capita residential area determined in the planning year, S n is the current per capita residential building area in the city; m is the planning year (e.g. 2035), and n is the current year (e.g. 2021);

[0055] The calculation method of the resident population change rate is shown in Formula 2:

[0056]

[0057] Where b is the rate of change of permanent population, P m The number of permanent residents determined by the city master plan, P n is the current permanent population of the city, m is the planning year (for example: 2035), and n is the current year (for example: 2021).

[0058] Step S3, calculating and predicting the per capita residential area in a future year based on the current per capita residential building area and the per capita residential building area change rate;

[0059] Among them, the calculation method of per capita residential area in a certain year in the future is shown in Formula 3:

[0060] S i =S n +a×i Formula 3,

[0061] In the formula, S i is the per capita residential area after year i, S n is the current per capita residential building area in the city, a is the rate of change of per capita residential building area, and i is the forecast period (in years).

[0062] Step S4: Calculate and predict the number of permanent residents in the city in a certain year in the future based on the current number of permanent residents and the rate of change of the number of permanent residents;

[0063] Among them, the calculation method of the number of permanent residents in a city in a certain year in the future is shown in Formula 4:

[0064] P i =P n +b×i Formula 4,

[0065] Where P i is the number of permanent residents in the city after year i, P n is the current number of permanent residents in the city, b is the rate of change of the permanent population, and i is the forecast period (in years).

[0066] Step S5, calculating the total amount of residential housing construction in the future based on the predicted per capita residential building area and the number of permanent residents in the city in a certain year in the future;

[0067] The calculation of the total amount of residential housing construction in the future is shown in Formula 5:

[0068] S 住宅i =S i ×P i Formula 5,

[0069] In the formula, S 住宅i is the total amount of residential housing construction in the city after year i, S i is the per capita residential area after year i, P i is the number of permanent residents in the city after year i.

[0070] Step S6: sampling and obtaining the land area of ​​each type, the existing building area and the average number of floors of each type of land corresponding to the public buildings in the current and past years;

[0071] Public buildings correspond to various types of land, which refer to commercial and service land, public management and service land, transportation land (including: transportation service site land, airport land, port terminal land, etc.) in the land survey;

[0072] The samples drawn should include all the above-mentioned types of land, and the sample size should be sufficient; the building area of ​​each type of land refers to the floor area of ​​the building within the above-mentioned land types; the average number of floors is calculated by dividing the total number of floors of the building within the above-mentioned land types within the sample range by the number of building buildings in the corresponding land type.

[0073] Step S7, calculating the proportion of the current housing construction area of ​​public buildings corresponding to various types of land in the current and past years;

[0074] For calculating the proportion of building area of ​​the above-mentioned various types of land in the city, the calculation methods for different types of land are the same. In step S7 to step S13, the specific calculation method is introduced by taking commercial and service land as an example;

[0075] The proportion of building area of ​​public buildings corresponding to various types of land is calculated as shown in Formula 6:

[0076]

[0077] In the formula, A 商 is the proportion of residential buildings in the sampled commercial and service land, A' 商 is the floor area of ​​all the houses sampled, S 商 It is the total area of ​​all commercial and service land in the sample.

[0078] Step S8, calculating the rate of change of the proportion of public buildings corresponding to each type of land and the rate of change of the average number of floors of houses;

[0079] The calculation of the change rate of the proportion of public buildings corresponding to various types of land is shown in Formula 7:

[0080]

[0081] Where c is the rate of change of the proportion of residential buildings in the commercial and service areas of the sampled area, A 商今 A is the proportion of housing construction area in the commercial and service land in the current year, 商前 The proportion of housing construction area in commercial and service land in a certain year in the past;

[0082] The calculation method of the change rate of the average number of floors of public buildings corresponding to various types of land is shown in Formula 8:

[0083]

[0084] Where d is the rate of change of the average number of floors of residential buildings in the commercial and service areas of the sampled buildings, and F 商今 is the average number of floors of buildings in the current commercial and service area, F 商前 It is the average number of floors of buildings in transportation land in a certain year in the past.

[0085] Step S9, calculating the proportion of houses and the average number of floors in each type of land for public buildings in a certain year in the future;

[0086] The calculation method for the proportion of public buildings corresponding to housing buildings in various types of land in a certain year in the future is:

[0087] A 商i =A 商今 +c×i Formula 9,

[0088] In the formula, A 商i A is the proportion of housing construction area in the commercial and service land after i years, 商今 is the proportion of housing construction area in the commercial and service land in the current year, c is the rate of change of the proportion of housing construction in the commercial and service land of the sample, and i is the time to be predicted (in years);

[0089] The calculation method for the average number of floors of public buildings corresponding to various types of land in a certain year in the future is:

[0090] F 商i =F 商今 +d×i Formula 10,

[0091] In the formula, F 商i F is the average number of floors of buildings in the commercial and service land after i years, 商今 is the average number of floors of buildings in the current commercial and service land, d is the rate of change of the average number of floors of buildings in the commercial and service land of the sample, and i is the prediction period (in years).

[0092] Step S10, obtaining the land areas of various types of public buildings corresponding to the current and past years;

[0093] The corresponding land areas of various types of public buildings in the current year and in the past year refer to the total areas of various types of land corresponding to urban public buildings in the current year and in the past year.

[0094] Step S11, calculating the area change rate of various types of land corresponding to public buildings;

[0095] The calculation of the area change rate of public buildings corresponding to various types of land is shown in Formula 11:

[0096]

[0097] In the formula, e is the rate of change of the area of ​​commercial and service land in the city, S 商今 is the total area of ​​commercial and service land in the current year, S 商前 It is the total area of ​​commercial and service land in a certain year in the past.

[0098] Step S12, calculating the land area of ​​each type of public building corresponding to a certain year in the future;

[0099] The calculation method for various land areas corresponding to public buildings in a certain year in the future is shown in Formula 12:

[0100] S 商i =S 商今 +e×i Formula 12,

[0101] In the formula, S 商i S is the total commercial and service land area of ​​the city i years later, 商今 is the total area of ​​commercial and service land in the current year, e is the rate of change of the area of ​​commercial and service land in the city, and i is the time to be predicted (in years).

[0102] Step S13, calculating the housing construction volume corresponding to each type of land for public buildings in a certain year in the future;

[0103] The formula for calculating the housing construction volume of public buildings corresponding to various types of land in a certain year in the future is:

[0104] T 商i =S 商i ×F 商i ×A 商i Formula 13,

[0105] Where, T 商i S is the total number of buildings in the commercial and service areas of the city i years later, 商i is the total commercial and service land area of ​​the city i years later, F 商i A is the average number of floors of buildings in the commercial and service land i years later, 商i It is the proportion of housing construction area within the commercial and service land in i years.

[0106] Similarly, we can get T 公i (Total number of buildings in the public administration and service land of the city after year i), T 交i (Total amount of buildings within the city’s transportation land after i years).

[0107] Step S14, calculating the total amount of housing construction in all types of land corresponding to public buildings in a certain year in the future;

[0108] The calculation method for the total amount of housing construction corresponding to all types of land for public buildings in a certain year in the future is:

[0109] T 公共建筑i =T 商i +T 公i +T 交i Formula 14,

[0110] T 公共建筑i is the total number of public buildings in the city i years later.

[0111] Step S15: Calculate the total amount of urban buildings based on the calculated total amount of future residential housing construction and the total amount of public buildings corresponding to all types of land.

[0112] Therefore, the calculation of the total amount of urban buildings is shown in Formula 15:

[0113] Q i =S 住宅i +T 公共建筑i Formula 15,

[0114] In the formula, Q i S is the total housing construction volume in the city after year i, 住宅i T is the total residential housing construction in the city after year i, 公共建筑i is the total number of public buildings in the city i years later.

[0115] The present invention discloses a method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction. The method calculates the total amount of urban housing construction in a future year by sampling through relevant data such as population, land use and planning. Specifically, the total amount of urban housing construction is divided into the total amount of residential buildings and the total amount of public buildings. The total amount of residential buildings in a future year and the total amount of public buildings in a future year are calculated respectively, so as to finally obtain the result of the total amount of urban housing construction in a future year (i.e. predicted).

[0116] The above implementation modes are not limitations of the present invention, and the present invention is not limited to the above examples. Changes, modifications, additions or substitutions made by technicians in this technical field within the scope of the technical solution of the present invention also belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction, characterized in that: Based on population, land use and planning data, the total amount of urban housing construction in a certain year in the future is calculated by sampling; The total amount of urban housing construction is divided into the total amount of residential buildings and the total amount of public buildings, and the total amount of residential buildings and the total amount of public buildings in a certain year in the future are calculated respectively, so as to finally obtain the total amount of urban housing construction in a certain year in the future; The specific processing steps include: Step S1, obtaining the per capita residential building area index value and the permanent population index value in the urban planning, as well as the current per capita residential building area and the permanent population; Step S2, calculating the rate of change of per capita residential building area and the rate of change of permanent population; Step S3, calculating and predicting the per capita residential area in a future year based on the current per capita residential building area and the per capita residential building area change rate; Step S4: Calculate and predict the number of permanent residents in the city in a certain year in the future based on the current number of permanent residents and the rate of change of the number of permanent residents; Step S5, calculating the total amount of residential housing construction in the future based on the predicted per capita residential building area and the number of permanent residents in the city in a certain year in the future; Step S6: sampling and obtaining the land area of ​​each type, the existing building area and the average number of floors of each type of land corresponding to the public buildings in the current and past years; Step S7, calculating the proportion of the current housing construction area of ​​public buildings corresponding to various types of land in the current and past years; Step S8, calculating the rate of change of the proportion of public buildings corresponding to each type of land and the rate of change of the average number of floors of houses; Step S9, calculating the proportion of houses and the average number of floors in each type of land for public buildings in a certain year in the future; Step S10, obtaining the land areas of various types of public buildings corresponding to the current and past years; Step S11, calculating the area change rate of various types of land corresponding to public buildings; Step S12, calculating the land area of ​​each type of public building corresponding to a certain year in the future; Step S13, calculating the housing construction volume corresponding to each type of land for public buildings in a certain year in the future; Step S14, calculating the total amount of housing construction in all types of land corresponding to public buildings in a certain year in the future; Step S15: Calculate the total amount of urban buildings based on the calculated total amount of future residential housing construction and the total amount of public buildings corresponding to all types of land.

2. The method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S2, the calculation of the rate of change of per capita residential building area is as shown in Formula 1: Where a is the rate of change of per capita residential building area, S m is the per capita residential area determined in the planning year, S n is the current per capita residential building area in the city; m is the planning year, and n is the current year; The calculation of the rate of change of permanent population is shown in Formula 2: Where b is the rate of change of permanent population, P m The number of permanent residents determined by the city master plan, P n is the current permanent population of the city, m is the planning year, and n is the current year.

3. The method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction according to claim 2, characterized in that: In step S3, the calculation of per capita residential area in a future year is shown in Formula 3: S i =S n +a×i Formula 3, In the formula, S i is the per capita residential area after year i, S n is the current per capita residential building area in the city, a is the rate of change of per capita residential building area, and i is the forecast period in years.

4. The method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction according to claim 3 is characterized in that: In step S4, the calculation of the number of permanent residents in a city in a future year is shown in Formula 4: P i =P n +b×i Formula 4, Where P i is the number of permanent residents in the city after year i, P n is the current number of permanent residents in the city, b is the rate of change of the permanent population, and i is the forecast period in years.

5. The method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction according to claim 4, characterized in that: In step S5, the total amount of future residential housing construction is calculated as shown in Formula 5: S 住宅i =S i ×P i Formula 5, In the formula, S 住宅i is the total amount of residential housing construction in the city after year i, S i is the per capita residential area after year i, P i is the number of permanent residents in the city after year i.

6. The method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction according to claim 5, characterized in that: In step S6, public buildings correspond to various types of land, including commercial and service land, public management and service land, and transportation land in land survey; The building area of ​​each type of land use is the floor area of ​​the building within each land use type; the average number of floors is calculated as follows: within the sample range, the total number of floors of the building within each land use type divided by the number of building floors within the corresponding land use type.

7. The method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction according to claim 6, characterized in that: In step S14, the total amount of housing buildings corresponding to all types of land in a certain year in the future is calculated as shown in Formula 14: T 公共建筑i =T 商i +T 公i +T 交i Formula 14, T 公共建筑i T is the total amount of public buildings in the city after year i, 商i T is the total number of buildings in the commercial and service areas of the city i years later, 公i T is the total amount of buildings in the public administration and service land of the city i years later, 交i It is the total amount of buildings within the city’s transportation land after i years.

8. The method for predicting the total amount of urban housing construction according to claim 7, characterized in that: In step S15, the total amount of urban buildings is calculated as shown in Formula 15: Q i =S 住宅i +T 公共建筑i Formula 15, In the formula, Q i S is the total housing construction volume in the city after year i, 住宅i T is the total residential housing construction in the city after year i, 公共建筑i is the total amount of public buildings in the city i years later, i is the time you want to predict, in years.

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