A technology maturity prediction method and algorithm implementation based on a growth model

Abstract

This application relates to the field of information technology, specifically to an information processing method, comprising: obtaining the name of a specified technical field; based on the name of the specified technical field, obtaining technical keywords of the specified technical field from a first website using targeted search technology; obtaining technical field classification information from a second website; based on the name of the technical field, obtaining technical field categories from the technical field classification information; based on the technical keywords and technical field categories, obtaining technical documents from the second website using targeted search technology; and performing data cleaning processing on the technical documents to obtain technical documents with generation time characteristics and technical field characteristics.

Description

[0001] This application claims priority to Chinese patent application No. 202011640951.7. Technical Field

[0002] This application relates to the field of information technology, specifically to an information processing method, apparatus, and electronic device. Background Technology

[0003] In today's era of booming development across all industries, assessing future development trends in a specific technological field is of practical and strategic significance. Traditional methods require experts to comprehensively calculate and evaluate a vast amount of data and information, resulting in lengthy lead times and a tendency to incorporate too much subjective bias and judgment from the analysts, thus lacking objectivity. Summary of the Invention

[0004] Based on this, this application provides an information processing method that makes the assessment of future development trends in a certain technical field more efficient and objective.

[0005] According to one aspect of this application, an information processing method is proposed, comprising:

[0006] Obtain the name of the specified technical field;

[0007] Based on the name of the specified technical field, technical keywords of the specified technical field are obtained from a first website using targeted search technology;

[0008] Obtain technical category information from a second website;

[0009] Based on the name of the technical field, the technical field category is obtained from the technical field classification information;

[0010] Based on the aforementioned technical keywords and technical field categories, technical documents are obtained from the second website using targeted search technology;

[0011] The technical documents are cleaned to obtain technical documents with generation time characteristics and technical field characteristics.

[0012] According to some embodiments, the aforementioned method further includes: constructing a development mathematical model of the specified technical field based on the technical document having generation time characteristics and technical field characteristics.

[0013] According to some embodiments, constructing a development mathematical model for a specified technical field based on the technical document having generation time characteristics and technical field characteristics includes: obtaining the generation time of the technical document; statistically determining the year and number of the technical document based on the generation time; and constructing a development mathematical model for the specified technical field based on the year and number of the document.

[0014] According to some embodiments, constructing a data model for the technical document based on the input time and the number of years includes: fitting the year and the number of years into a Gompertz model to obtain a mathematical model for the development of the specified technical field.

[0015] According to some embodiments, the step of fitting the input time and number of years into a Gompertz model to obtain a development mathematical model for the specified technical field includes:

[0016] S1: The Gompertz model is:

[0017]

[0018] Where t represents the t-th year, C t Let represent the number of technical documents in year t, and k, a, and b be the coefficients of the Gompertz model.

[0019] S2: Based on the year and number of years of the technical documents, the coefficients k, a, and b of the Gompertz model are calculated:

[0020]

[0021]

[0022]

[0023] in T represents the number of years.

[0024]

[0025]

[0026] When T = 3r

[0027]

[0028] When T = 3r + 1

[0029]

[0030] When T = 3r + 2

[0031]

[0032] S3: Substitute the coefficients k, a, and b of the Gompertz model obtained in S2 into the Gompertz model to obtain the development mathematical model of the specified technical field.

[0033] According to some embodiments, the data cleaning process for the technical documents includes: identifying and filtering the technical documents using natural language processing machine learning methods.

[0034] According to some embodiments, the aforementioned method further includes: evaluating the development trend of the specified technical field based on a development mathematical model of the specified technical field.

[0035] According to one aspect of this application, an apparatus for information processing is provided, comprising:

[0036] The module retrieves the name of the specified technical field.

[0037] The search module, based on the name of the specified technical field, uses targeted search technology to obtain technical keywords of the specified technical field from the first website;

[0038] The acquisition module also acquires technical field classification information from the second website;

[0039] The matching module obtains the technical field category from the technical field classification information based on the name of the technical field.

[0040] The search module, based on the technical keywords and technical field categories, uses targeted search technology to obtain technical documents from the second website;

[0041] The data cleaning module performs data cleaning processing on the technical documents to obtain technical documents with generation time characteristics and technical field characteristics.

[0042] According to one aspect of this application, an electronic device is provided, comprising: one or more processors; a storage device for storing one or more programs; wherein when the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors perform the method as described in any of the foregoing descriptions.

[0043] According to one aspect of this application, a computer-readable storage medium is provided that stores computer-readable instructions thereon, which, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform the method as described in any of the preceding claims.

[0044] The beneficial effects of this application are:

[0045] According to some embodiments, this application uses targeted search and data cleaning methods to obtain filtered and accurate technical keywords, technical field categories, technical documents, and other information for a specified technical field.

[0046] According to some embodiments, this application utilizes information from relevant technical documents to construct a mathematical model of the development of the technical field, which can efficiently and accurately assess future development trends in the technical field. Attached Figure Description

[0047] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application, the accompanying drawings used in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the accompanying drawings described below are only some embodiments of this application. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings, without exceeding the scope of protection claimed by this application.

[0048] Figure 1 A flowchart of an information processing method according to an example embodiment is shown.

[0049] Figure 2 A block diagram of an apparatus for information processing according to an example embodiment is shown.

[0050] Figure 3 This diagram illustrates an information processing method according to an exemplary embodiment.

[0051] Figure 4 A block diagram of an electronic device according to an exemplary embodiment is shown. Detailed Implementation

[0052] Exemplary embodiments will now be described more fully with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, these exemplary embodiments can be implemented in many forms and should not be construed as limited to the embodiments set forth herein; rather, they are provided so that this application will be thorough and complete, and will fully convey the concept of the exemplary embodiments to those skilled in the art. The same reference numerals in the drawings denote the same or similar parts, and therefore repeated descriptions of them will be omitted.

[0053] The described features, structures, or characteristics can be combined in any suitable manner in one or more embodiments. Numerous specific details are provided in the following description to give a full understanding of embodiments of this disclosure. However, those skilled in the art will recognize that the technical solutions of this disclosure can be practiced without one or more of these specific details, or other methods, components, materials, devices, or the like. In these cases, well-known structures, methods, devices, implementations, materials, or operations will not be shown or described in detail.

[0054] The flowcharts shown in the accompanying drawings are merely illustrative and do not necessarily include all content and operations / steps, nor do they necessarily have to be performed in the described order. For example, some operations / steps can be broken down, while others can be combined or partially combined; therefore, the actual execution order may change depending on the specific circumstances.

[0055] The terms "first," "second," etc., in the specification, claims, and accompanying drawings of this application are used to distinguish different objects, not to describe a specific order. Furthermore, the terms "comprising" and "having," and any variations thereof, are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion. For example, a process, method, system, product, or apparatus that includes a series of steps or units is not limited to the listed steps or units, but may optionally include steps or units not listed, or may optionally include other steps or units inherent to these processes, methods, products, or apparatuses.

[0056] Assessing future development trends in a specific technology field requires analytical experts to comprehensively calculate and evaluate numerous data and information. The results are obtained over a long period and are prone to incorporating too much subjective factor and judgment from the analytical experts, lacking objectivity.

[0057] This application proposes an information processing method that extracts technical keywords from a specified technical field, locates specific classification information for these keywords on relevant authoritative technical literature websites, and obtains historical literature information for the specified technical field based on the technical keywords and specific classification information. A Gompertz model is then used to fit the literature information to obtain a mathematical model of the growth trend of the specified technical field. This mathematical model can be used to assess the future development trend of the specified technical field, exhibiting high efficiency and objectivity.

[0058] Figure 1 A flowchart of an information processing method according to an example embodiment is shown.

[0059] See Figure 1 In S101, the name of the specified technical field is obtained.

[0060] According to the example embodiment, in this step, the name of the technical field to be predicted is obtained, the scope of which may be general or specific.

[0061] According to one embodiment, the technical field may be referred to as "electric vehicle".

[0062] In S103, based on the name of the specified technical field, technical keywords of the specified technical field are obtained from the first website.

[0063] According to one embodiment, the first website may be, for example, a forum or news site related to the technology, or an information aggregation website for content related to the technology field using a search engine.

[0064] According to one embodiment, the technical keywords can be obtained using, for example, targeted search techniques.

[0065] According to one embodiment, a plurality of technical keyword results may be obtained through targeted search. Data cleaning techniques can be used to filter the obtained technical keywords. After analyzing the results based on methods such as natural language processing machine learning, deduplication, merging, and removal of erroneous results can be performed.

[0066] According to the example embodiment, technical keywords are used to explore the technical field vertically in subsequent steps to obtain more specific and comprehensive search results.

[0067] According to one embodiment, the term "electric vehicle" in the aforementioned technical field may include technical keywords such as "battery," "motor," and "vehicle controller."

[0068] In S105, obtain technical category information from the second website.

[0069] According to one embodiment, the second website is an authoritative website that collects a large amount of literature related to the field of technology, such as a paper search website or a patent search website.

[0070] According to one embodiment, the authoritative websites of the aforementioned technical fields all have very detailed, scientific and comprehensive classification system information, and this classification information is obtained as technical field classification information.

[0071] In S107, the technical field category is obtained from the technical field classification information based on the name of the technical field.

[0072] In S109, based on technical keywords and technical field categories, multiple technical documents are obtained from a second website using targeted search technology.

[0073] According to one embodiment, searching a second website using only the aforementioned technical keywords will yield many results that correspond to the keywords but not to the specific technical fields. For example, the technical field of "electric vehicle" may include technical keywords such as "battery." Searching the second website using only "battery" will predictably yield excessive redundant information, such as "mobile phone battery," etc.

[0074] According to the example implementation, combining technical keywords and technical classification information to derive technical field categories can make subsequent search results more accurate.

[0075] According to the example embodiment, all technical documents can be obtained from the second website by searching based on technical keywords and technical field categories.

[0076] According to one embodiment, as described above, relevant publicly published journal articles can be obtained from, for example, a paper search website, and relevant published patents can also be obtained from, for example, a patent search website.

[0077] In S111, the technical documents are cleaned to obtain technical documents with generation time characteristics and technical field characteristics.

[0078] According to the example embodiment, the search results obtained after the aforementioned steps may also contain a large number of duplicate or incorrectly retrieved contents.

[0079] According to one embodiment, the technical document dataset of search results can be automatically cleaned using, for example, natural language processing machine learning methods. It can also be filtered by adding additional conditions, such as time range, to obtain valid technical document results that meet the conditions, and add its generation time characteristics and technical field characteristics.

[0080] According to one embodiment, the generation time of the technical document can be, for example, the submission time or publication time of a paper or journal article, or, for example, the application time or publication time of a patent document.

[0081] According to one embodiment, the generation time of the aforementioned technical document is processed to obtain the year of the corresponding technical document, i.e., the year of generation.

[0082] According to one embodiment, the number of technical documents belonging to the same technical field in the same year is counted to obtain the year-specific number of technical documents in that technical field for each year.

[0083] According to one embodiment, the Gompertz model can be used to process the year and number of technical documents in the technical field obtained in the aforementioned steps, and fit a development mathematical model that can reflect the development trend of the technical field.

[0084] According to the example embodiment, refer to Figure 3 The reference figure shows that the Gompertz model is a time-series-based S-function (Sigmoid Function), which reflects the natural laws of change of a thing over time. This is common knowledge in the field and will not be elaborated here.

[0085] According to one embodiment, the fitting method is as follows:

[0086] S1: The Gompertz model is:

[0087]

[0088] Where t is the independent variable, representing time;

[0089] k represents C t The limit value of C, that is, when t takes infinitely large. t The possible values ​​of ;

[0090] ka represents the initial value when t = 0;

[0091] b is the shape factor. The larger b is, the slower the reliability increases and the slower the rate at which the limit value is reached.

[0092] C t It represents the total number of technical documents in the specified technical field in year t.

[0093] S2: Taking the logarithm of both sides of the aforementioned equation, we get:

[0094] lnC t =lnk+b t lna.

[0095] S3: An improved three-stage estimation method is used to estimate the coefficients. Let T be the number of historical data sets, i.e., the number of years. For example, if the year distribution of the obtained technical documents is from 2011 to 2016, then T is 6.

[0096] make There are three cases: (1) T is a multiple of 3, i.e., T = 3r; (2) T leaves a remainder of 1 when divided by 3, i.e., T = 3r + 1; (3) T leaves a remainder of 2 when divided by 3, i.e., T = 3r + 2.

[0097] S4: Based on the aforementioned three-segment estimation method, the number of technical documents obtained above by year is divided into three groups according to year. First, the number of documents by year is sorted to obtain a sequence. The first group is from year 1 to year r in the sequence, the second group is from year r+1 to year 2r, and the third group is from year 2r+1 to year T.

[0098] S5: Summate the logarithms of each of the preceding groups:

[0099]

[0100]

[0101]

[0102] Among them, C i This is to count the number of technical documents for the i-th year in the aforementioned sequence.

[0103] S6: Based on the three equations in S5, the three coefficients k, a, and b are obtained:

[0104]

[0105]

[0106]

[0107] S7: Substituting the three coefficients k, a, and b into the Gompertz model, we obtain the mathematical model for the development of this technological field:

[0108]

[0109] Here, T+1 represents the year following the year represented by T, and so on.

[0110] According to one embodiment, based on the aforementioned mathematical model for the development of the technical field, the number of papers or patents generated each year in the following years can be estimated, thereby evaluating the development trend of the technical field based on this data.

[0111] According to one embodiment, based on the aforementioned mathematical model of technological development, it is also possible to assess the current stage of development of the technological field.

[0112] Figure 2 A block diagram of an apparatus for information processing according to an example embodiment is shown.

[0113] See Figure 2 The device for information processing includes: an acquisition module 201, a search module 203, a matching module 205, and a data cleaning module 207, wherein:

[0114] Module 201 obtains the name of the specified technical field;

[0115] Search module 203 obtains technical keywords for the specified technical field from the first website based on the name of the specified technical field and using targeted search technology.

[0116] Module 201 also retrieves technical field category information from a second website;

[0117] Matching module 205 obtains the technical field category from the technical field classification information based on the name of the technical field;

[0118] Search module 203 uses targeted search technology to obtain technical documents from a second website based on technical keywords and technical field categories.

[0119] The data cleaning module 207 performs data cleaning processing on the technical documents to obtain technical documents with generation time characteristics and technical field characteristics.

[0120] The device performs functions similar to those described above; other functions are described in the preceding descriptions and will not be repeated here.

[0121] Figure 4 A block diagram of an electronic device according to an exemplary embodiment is shown.

[0122] The following reference Figure 4 To describe an electronic device 400 according to this embodiment of the present application. Figure 4The electronic device 400 shown is merely an example and should not impose any limitations on the functionality and scope of use of the embodiments of this application.

[0123] like Figure 4 As shown, the electronic device 400 is presented in the form of a general-purpose computing device. The components of the electronic device 400 may include, but are not limited to: at least one processing unit 410, at least one storage unit 420, a bus 430 connecting different system components (including storage unit 420 and processing unit 410), a display unit 440, etc.

[0124] The storage unit stores program code, which can be executed by the processing unit 410 to perform the methods described in this specification according to various exemplary embodiments of this application. For example, the processing unit 410 can perform the methods described above.

[0125] Storage unit 420 may include a readable medium in the form of a volatile storage unit, such as random access memory (RAM) 4201 and / or cache memory 4202, and may further include a read-only memory (ROM) 4203.

[0126] Storage unit 420 may also include a program / utility 4204 having a set (at least one) program module 4205, such program module 4205 including but not limited to: operating system, one or more application programs, other program modules and program data, each or some combination of these examples may include an implementation of a network environment.

[0127] Bus 430 can represent one or more of several types of bus structures, including a memory cell bus or memory cell controller, a peripheral bus, a graphics acceleration port, a processing unit, or a local bus using any of the various bus structures.

[0128] Electronic device 400 can also communicate with one or more external devices 4001 (e.g., keyboard, pointing device, Bluetooth device, etc.), and with one or more devices that enable a user to interact with electronic device 400, and / or with any device that enables electronic device 400 to communicate with one or more other computing devices (e.g., router, modem, etc.). This communication can be performed via input / output (I / O) interface 450. Furthermore, electronic device 400 can also communicate with one or more networks (e.g., local area network (LAN), wide area network (WAN), and / or public networks, such as the Internet) via network adapter 460. Network adapter 460 can communicate with other modules of electronic device 400 via bus 430. It should be understood that, although not shown in the figures, other hardware and / or software modules can be used in conjunction with electronic device 400, including but not limited to: microcode, device drivers, redundant processing units, external disk drive arrays, RAID systems, tape drives, and data backup storage systems.

[0129] Through the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art will readily understand that the exemplary embodiments described herein can be implemented by software or by combining software with necessary hardware. The technical solutions according to the embodiments of this application can be embodied in the form of a software product, which can be stored in a non-volatile storage medium (such as a CD-ROM, USB flash drive, external hard drive, etc.) or on a network, including several instructions to cause a computing device (such as a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to execute the methods described above according to the embodiments of this application.

[0130] Software products may employ any combination of one or more readable media. A readable medium may be a readable signal medium or a readable storage medium. A readable storage medium may be, for example,, but not limited to, an electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, apparatus, or device, or any combination thereof. More specific examples of readable storage media (a non-exhaustive list) include: electrical connections with one or more wires, portable disks, hard disks, random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), optical fiber, portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), optical storage devices, magnetic storage devices, or any suitable combination thereof.

[0131] Computer-readable storage media may include data signals propagated in baseband or as part of a carrier wave, carrying readable program code. Such propagated data signals may take various forms, including but not limited to electromagnetic signals, optical signals, or any suitable combination thereof. A readable storage medium may also be any readable medium other than a readable storage medium that can transmit, propagate, or transfer a program for use by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device. The program code contained on the readable storage medium may be transmitted using any suitable medium, including but not limited to wireless, wired, optical fiber, RF, etc., or any suitable combination thereof.

[0132] Program code for performing the operations of this application can be written in any combination of one or more programming languages, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Java and C++, and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as C or similar languages. The program code can execute entirely on the user's computing device, partially on the user's computing device, as a standalone software package, partially on the user's computing device and partially on a remote computing device, or entirely on a remote computing device or server. In cases involving remote computing devices, the remote computing device can be connected to the user's computing device via any type of network, including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN), or it can be connected to an external computing device (e.g., via the Internet using an Internet service provider).

[0133] The aforementioned computer-readable medium carries one or more programs, which, when executed by a device, cause the computer-readable medium to perform the aforementioned functions.

[0134] Those skilled in the art will understand that the above modules can be distributed in the device as described in the embodiments, or they can be modified accordingly and placed in one or more devices that are unique to this embodiment. The modules in the above embodiments can be combined into one module, or they can be further divided into multiple sub-modules.

[0135] Through the description of the above embodiments, those skilled in the art will readily understand that the exemplary embodiments described herein can be implemented by software or by combining software with necessary hardware. Therefore, the technical solutions according to the embodiments of this application can be embodied in the form of a software product, which can be stored in a non-volatile storage medium (such as a CD-ROM, USB flash drive, external hard drive, etc.) or on a network, including several instructions to cause a computing device (such as a personal computer, server, mobile terminal, or network device, etc.) to execute the methods according to the embodiments of this application.

[0136] In another aspect, this application also provides a computer-readable medium, which may be included in the apparatus described in the above embodiments; or it may exist independently and not assembled into the apparatus. The computer-readable medium carries one or more programs, which, when executed by the apparatus, cause the apparatus to: obtain the name of a specified technical field; based on the name of the specified technical field, obtain technical keywords of the specified technical field from a first website using targeted search technology; obtain technical field classification information from a second website; based on the name of the technical field, obtain a technical field category from the technical field classification information; based on the technical keywords and technical field category, obtain a technical document from the second website using targeted search technology; and perform data cleaning processing on the technical document to obtain a technical document with generation time characteristics and technical field characteristics.

[0137] The embodiments of this application have been described in detail above. Specific examples have been used to illustrate the principles and implementation methods of this application. The descriptions of the embodiments above are only for the purpose of helping to understand the method and core ideas of this application. Furthermore, any changes or modifications made by those skilled in the art based on the ideas of this application, and on the specific implementation methods and application scope of this application, are all within the scope of protection of this application. Therefore, the content of this specification should not be construed as a limitation of this application.

Claims

1. An information processing method, comprising: Obtain the name of the specified technical field; Based on the name of the specified technical field, technical keywords of the specified technical field are obtained from a first website using targeted search technology; Obtain technical category information from a second website; Based on the name of the technical field, the technical field category is obtained from the technical field classification information; Based on the aforementioned technical keywords and technical field categories, technical documents are obtained from the second website using targeted search technology; The technical documents are cleaned to obtain technical documents with generation time characteristics and technical field characteristics; Constructing a development mathematical model for the specified technical field based on the technical documents having generation time characteristics and technical field characteristics includes: constructing a development mathematical model for the specified technical field based on the year and number of the technical documents; The specific year and its quantity are then fitted into the Gompertz model to obtain a mathematical model for the development of the specified technical field, including: The S1:Gompertz model is: Where t represents the t-th year, C t Let represent the number of technical documents in year t, and k, a, and b be the coefficients of the Gompertz model. S2: Based on the year and number of years of the technical documents, calculate the coefficients k, a, and b of the Gompertz model, including: in T represents the number of years. When T = 3r When T = 3r + 1 When T = 3r + 2 Among them, C i To count the number of technical documents for the i-th year in the obtained sequence, the sequence is obtained by sorting the number of years by year; S3: Substitute the coefficients k, a, and b of the Gompertz model obtained in S2 into the Gompertz model to obtain the development mathematical model of the specified technical field.

2. The method as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The construction of a development mathematical model for the specified technical field based on the technical documents having generation time characteristics and technical field characteristics includes: Obtain the generation time of the technical document; The year and number of the technical documents obtained based on the generation time statistics; Based on the year and the number of years, a development mathematical model for the specified technical field is constructed.

3. The method as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The data cleaning process for the technical documents includes: The technical documents are identified and filtered using natural language processing machine learning methods.

4. The method as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Also includes: Based on the development mathematical model of the specified technical field, the development trend of the specified technical field is evaluated.

5. An apparatus for information processing, characterized in that, The apparatus is used to perform the method as described in any one of claims 1-4, the apparatus comprising: The module retrieves the name of the specified technical field. The search module, based on the name of the specified technical field, uses targeted search technology to obtain technical keywords of the specified technical field from the first website; The acquisition module also acquires technical field classification information from the second website; The matching module obtains the technical field category from the technical field classification information based on the name of the technical field. The search module, based on the technical keywords and technical field categories, uses targeted search technology to obtain technical documents from the second website; The data cleaning module performs data cleaning processing on the technical documents to obtain technical documents with generation time characteristics and technical field characteristics.

6. An electronic device, characterized in that, include: One or more processors; Storage device for storing one or more programs; When the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors implement the method as described in any one of claims 1-4.

7. A computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon computer-readable instructions that, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform the method as described in any one of claims 1-4.

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