A provincial-level regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and evaluation system

Abstract

A provincial-level regional "dual carbon" comprehensive analysis and assessment system includes a system data bus, an energy utilization analysis subsystem, a carbon emission trend analysis subsystem, a dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem, a carbon sink analysis and assessment subsystem, and a carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem. The energy utilization analysis subsystem implements a comprehensive assessment of the utilization level of clean energy and new energy; the carbon emission trend analysis subsystem implements sector-specific carbon emission reduction path planning and decision-making; and the dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem implements "dual carbon" trend forecasting. Compared with the existing technology, the provincial-level regional comprehensive analysis and assessment system for "dual carbon" provided by the present invention integrates data resources from all industries in the province and region, provides users with information analysis tools for optimizing their "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" paths, and provides intuitive data basis for policy formulation.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of data processing technology, relates to the analysis and evaluation of data, and is a provincial regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and evaluation system. Background Art

[0002] Dual carbon refers to carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Existing technologies related to the dual carbon goals include: industry-wide carbon emissions monitoring and statistics, energy planning implemented by power grid companies within their dispatching and marketing systems, statistical analysis of new energy and conventional energy generation and load data, annual statistics on ecosystem scale, industrial structure, and economic policies within provincial big data centers, and demonstrations of CCUS (carbon capture and use) technology across various regions. However, these functions are often distributed across systems, industries, and regions. The statistical calibers for indicators such as carbon emissions, carbon sinks, and production and consumption vary significantly across these systems, making it impossible to provide a direct data source for provincial-level dual carbon goal analysis, forecasting, and path planning through simple statistical integration. Consequently, existing systems related to carbon emission trend analysis can only estimate future carbon emission trends based on reference factors from the IPCC or other international organizations or small-scale carbon emission measurements. These systems fail to reflect potential progress in achieving the dual carbon goals, including increased utilization of new energy, optimized industrial structure, enhanced carbon sink capacity, and green policies through carbon trading. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis and evaluation system for dual carbon is needed, which can aggregate carbon emission data from the production, transportation, storage, and consumption of various energy sources in provincial regions, as well as related energy planning, industrial structure, meteorological environment, economic policies, ecological carbon sinks and other data resources. It is particularly important to use the progress in the above aspects as indicators to quantitatively analyze and predict dual carbon trends, and provide a digital and intelligent comprehensive analysis and evaluation platform for dual carbon target planning and construction. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is: the existing technology lacks a digital platform that can comprehensively display the calculation, analysis and decision-making of provincial regional carbon data. The current analysis method of carbon data can only analyze existing data, or predict small-scale carbon emission trends. There is a lack of analysis and consideration of the dynamic changes of relevant data, and it is impossible to predict the impact of changes in industries and related production activities on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, especially the impact prediction and analysis of changes in industries and related production activities over a large range and for a long time. It is necessary to study and provide a comprehensive analysis and evaluation system for various business functions related to the provincial regions and dual carbon goals.

[0004] The technical solution of the present invention is: a provincial-level regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and assessment system, which includes an energy utilization analysis subsystem, a carbon emission situation analysis subsystem, a dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem, a carbon sink analysis and assessment subsystem, and a carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem connected via a system data bus; the dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem uses the output data of the carbon emission situation analysis subsystem, the carbon sink analysis and assessment subsystem, the energy utilization analysis subsystem, and the carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem as input indicators to achieve dual-carbon trend prediction in multiple scenarios; each subsystem is implemented by a computer program configured in a data processing device;

[0005] The energy utilization analysis subsystem is connected to the provincial power company's dispatching and marketing system and the hydrogen station project system to obtain energy structure data, new energy data and hydrogen station project data, and output an evaluation of the clean energy and new energy utilization level of the province; the carbon emission trend analysis subsystem is used to monitor and count carbon emissions and analyze carbon emission reduction costs in different departments of the province, and make carbon emission trend forecasts and carbon emission reduction path planning decisions in the province; the carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem is used to realize provincial carbon sink potential analysis and carbon sink volume change trend forecasts; the carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem is used to realize carbon trading information statistical analysis and carbon emission quota information trend analysis; the dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem is used to integrate the output indicators of other subsystems, through multi-indicator comprehensive calculation, and obtain a provincial dual-carbon trend prediction model based on historical data fitting, and simulate different scenarios by adjusting the model parameters to predict and evaluate the dual-carbon trends under different scenarios; the system data bus is a channel for data interaction between subsystems, providing a data access interface for each system to call, and realizing interoperability between subsystems.

[0006] The beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0007] (1) The present invention provides a provincial-level regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and evaluation system, which provides a quantitative analysis method for carbon peak and carbon neutrality. It aggregates carbon emission data from various links of energy production, transportation, storage, and consumption in the provincial region, as well as relevant energy planning, industrial structure, meteorological environment, economic policy, ecological carbon sink and other industry-wide data as input, and realizes the prediction of carbon peak and carbon neutrality trends for multiple scenarios, providing indispensable integrated data support and analysis capability support for the analysis and evaluation of big data related to dual-carbon goals;

[0008] (2) The provincial regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and evaluation system provided by the present invention realizes quantitative modeling description of carbon neutrality indicators, carbon emission trends, new energy carbon emission reduction status, carbon emission rights trading volume and carbon sink development trends through refined analysis and mining of big data resources such as energy, industry, environment, economic policies, and ecological carbon sinks, providing a knowledge base and analysis tools for carbon peak and carbon neutrality trend prediction and path optimization.

[0009] (3) The provincial-level regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and evaluation system provided by the present invention integrates carbon peak and carbon neutrality and serves the entire industry, all services, and the entire value chain resources to provide an information analysis tool for the optimization of dual-carbon data paths. It can realize annual data forecast analysis and provide intuitive data basis for annual decision-making, thereby helping to achieve the goals of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality". BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0010] Figure 1 2 is a system architecture diagram in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0011] Figure 2 This is an architecture diagram of the energy utilization analysis subsystem in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0012] Figure 3 This is an architecture diagram of the carbon emission situation analysis subsystem in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0013] Figure 4 This is an architecture diagram of the carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0014] Figure 5 This is an architecture diagram of the carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0015] Figure 6 This is an architecture diagram of the dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0016] Figure 7 2 is a diagram of the system data bus architecture in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0017] The present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0018] like Figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a provincial-level regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and evaluation system, including an energy utilization analysis subsystem, a carbon emission situation analysis subsystem, a dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem, a carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem, and a carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem connected through a system data bus. Figure 1 An architecture diagram of a provincial-level regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and evaluation system in this implementation case is shown. The provincial-level regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and evaluation system includes an energy utilization analysis subsystem, a carbon emission trend analysis subsystem, a dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem, a carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem, and a carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem connected through a system data bus; the dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem uses the output data of the carbon emission trend analysis subsystem, the carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem, the energy utilization subsystem, and the carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem as input indicators to realize dual-carbon trend prediction in multiple scenarios; each subsystem is implemented through a computer program configured in a data processing device.

[0019] The energy utilization analysis subsystem is connected to the provincial power company's dispatching and marketing system and the hydrogen station project system to obtain energy structure data, new energy data and hydrogen station project data, and output an evaluation of the clean energy and new energy utilization level of the province; the carbon emission trend analysis subsystem is used to monitor and count carbon emissions and analyze carbon emission reduction costs in different departments of the province, and make carbon emission trend forecasts and carbon emission reduction path planning decisions in the province; the carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem is used to realize provincial carbon sink potential analysis and carbon sink volume change trend forecasts; the carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem is used to realize carbon trading information statistical analysis and carbon emission quota information trend analysis; the dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem is used to integrate the output indicators of other subsystems, through multi-indicator comprehensive calculation, and obtain a provincial dual-carbon trend prediction model based on historical data fitting, and simulate different scenarios by adjusting the model parameters to predict and evaluate the dual-carbon trends under different scenarios; the system data bus is a channel for data interaction between subsystems, providing a data access interface for each system to call, and realizing interoperability between subsystems.

[0020] External system platforms with data access to the system of the present invention include: the industry carbon emission monitoring system connected to the carbon emission trend analysis subsystem; the provincial big data center connected to the carbon emission trend analysis subsystem and the carbon sink analysis and assessment subsystem; the CCUS project system connected to the carbon sink analysis and assessment subsystem; the hydrogen station project system and the provincial power company dispatching and marketing system connected to the energy utilization analysis subsystem; and the provincial carbon trading platform connected to the carbon trading statistics and analysis subsystem. These external system platforms are existing technology data platforms and will not be described in detail.

[0021] The following is a detailed introduction to the various subsystems of the system of the present invention.

[0022] Figure 2 The energy utilization analysis subsystem architecture diagram in the implementation case of the present invention is shown, including a provincial new energy resource assessment module, a provincial new energy consumption and carrying capacity analysis module, and a provincial new energy utilization potential assessment module.

[0023] The provincial new energy resource assessment module accesses energy structure data and meteorological resource data from the provincial power company's dispatching system and marketing system, compiles statistics on the distribution of clean energy resources by time, space and region, evaluates and calculates new energy power generation resources, and outputs the assessment results of the province's new energy power generation resource developable installed capacity to the provincial new energy consumption and carrying capacity analysis module.

[0024] The provincial new energy consumption and carrying capacity analysis module is connected to the grid structure of the provincial power company's dispatching system and new energy data such as wind power photovoltaics, electrochemical energy storage, pumped storage, and electric vehicles. It is connected to hydrogen station statistical data from the third-party hydrogen station project system, and the new energy power generation resource assessment results are input from the provincial clean energy resource assessment module to perform new energy theoretical power generation calculations, new energy consumption analysis, regional new energy carrying capacity assessments, and rating index calculations.

[0025] The provincial new energy utilization potential assessment module is connected to the output results of the new energy power generation resource assessment and the regional new energy carrying capacity, and provides the provincial new energy utilization potential assessment and new energy emission reduction situation analysis functions. The provincial new energy utilization potential is calculated by formula (1), that is, the amount of new energy that can be developed in the province in the future.

[0026] PO=min(RE,BR)-DE (1)

[0027] Among them, PO is the province's new energy utilization potential in megawatts, RE is the province's theoretical developable installed capacity of new energy power generation in megawatts, which is output by the clean energy power generation resource assessment module, DE is the province's developed installed capacity of new energy power generation in megawatts, which can be calculated through statistical data from the power grid dispatching and marketing departments, BR is the province's power grid's new energy carrying capacity in megawatts, which is calculated and output by the province's new energy consumption and carrying capacity analysis module, and min(RE,BR) represents the province's actual developable amount of new energy power generation, taking the smaller value between RE and BR.

[0028] The total annual emission reduction of new energy in a province or region is calculated by formula (2):

[0029] CR t =DE t ×1000×24×365×η×γ ,DE t ≤DE t-1 +PO t-1 (2)

[0030] Among them, CR t The unit of annual emission reduction of new energy in the province in year t is tons, DE t is the total installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in the province, η is the efficiency coefficient of renewable energy power generation in the province, dimensionless, DE t ×1000×24×365×η is the total annual power generation of renewable energy in the province or region, in kilowatt-hours; γ is the conversion coefficient of renewable energy power generation minus carbon dioxide emission reduction, in tons / kilowatt-hour.

[0031] Formula (1) and formula (2) are calculation methods newly designed by the present invention based on the actual domestic dual-carbon situation. When using formula (2) to predict the total annual emission reduction of new energy in a province or region, the constraint condition is that the predicted value of the total installed capacity of new energy power generation in the province or region in the tth year cannot be greater than the sum of the total installed capacity developed in the t-1st year and the new energy utilization potential of the province or region in the t-1st year.

[0032] Figure 3 The carbon emission situation analysis subsystem architecture diagram in this implementation case is shown, including the provincial and regional industry carbon emission monitoring and analysis module and the provincial and regional carbon emission situation analysis module.

[0033] The provincial and regional industry carbon emission monitoring and analysis module accesses the industry carbon emission monitoring data of the industry carbon emission monitoring system, and outputs the annual statistics of provincial and regional industry-wide carbon emission monitoring.

[0034] The provincial carbon emission trend analysis module is connected to the annual statistics of carbon emission monitoring for each industry and the entire industry output by the provincial industry carbon emission monitoring and analysis module and the industrial structure data of the provincial big data center. The present invention designs formulas (3), (4) and (5) to realize the analysis of the evolution relationship between industrial structure and carbon emission intensity, and realizes a quantitative analysis method for different scenarios.

[0035]

[0036] Among them, CI represents the carbon emission intensity of the entire industry in the province, that is, the carbon emission per unit GDP, CE is the statistical value of carbon emission of the entire industry, GDP i and CE i They represent the gross domestic product of industry i and the annual statistics of carbon emissions, S i It represents the proportion of GDP of industry i to GDP of the whole industry, i.e., industrial structure. i It represents the carbon emission intensity in industry i, that is, the carbon emission level of the industry.

[0037] In this embodiment, different S i and I i By setting the estimated value of industrial structure S in a certain year in the future, different scenarios can be constructed to achieve quantitative analysis and prediction of the development trend of carbon emission intensity under multiple scenarios. i (Reflecting the proportion of low-carbon industries in the future) and the estimated carbon emission intensity within the industry I i (Reflecting the progress of carbon emission reduction technology in the industry), to construct different scenarios, the carbon emission intensity CI of the entire industry in the future year can be predicted by formula (3). For example, if S i The average annual increase is 5%, setting I i The average annual growth rate is 0%, which can be used to predict the development trend of carbon emission intensity in all industries in the province and region under the baseline scenario with minor industrial structure adjustments and no improvement in industry carbon emission levels.

[0038] Figure 4 The carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem architecture diagram in this implementation case is shown, including a regional annual carbon sink statistical analysis module and a regional carbon sink potential analysis module.

[0039] The regional annual carbon sink statistical analysis module is connected to the ecological carbon sink data of the provincial big data center and the CCUS carbon capture project monitoring statistical data, providing regional annual carbon sink statistical analysis functions.

[0040] The regional carbon sink potential analysis module is connected to the ecological carbon sink planning data of the provincial big data center, providing the regional carbon sink potential analysis function of the ecosystem, outputting the future annual sink increase, and then combining it with the annual carbon sink statistical data output by the regional annual carbon sink statistical analysis module to output the future carbon sink development trend forecast. The quantitative relationship is as shown in formula (6):

[0041] CC t =CC t-1 +ΔCC (6)

[0042] Among them CC t is the predicted value of regional carbon sequestration in the tth year, CC t-1 is the regional carbon sink statistical value in year t-1, in tons, and ΔCC is the regional annual incremental sink, in tons. The annual incremental storage volume of various regional ecosystems (forests, farmland) is obtained from the agricultural and forestry departments. Combined with the carbon sink volume per unit of storage volume for each ecosystem, ΔCC can be calculated for each year. This calculation method follows existing methods and will not be detailed here.

[0043] In the final system prediction analysis of this embodiment, different ΔCCs can be set to calculate the development trend of provincial carbon sinks under different scenarios. For example, by setting ΔCC to 2%, the development trend of provincial annual carbon sinks can be calculated under the baseline scenario where the annual increase in ecological carbon sinks and other carbon sinks is low.

[0044] Figure 5 The carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem architecture diagram in this implementation case is shown, including the carbon verification information statistical analysis module and the carbon trading information statistical analysis module.

[0045] The carbon verification information statistical analysis module is connected to the industry-specific carbon verification data of the provincial carbon trading platform, and provides query, statistical analysis and information on carbon verification results of key enterprises in different industries.

[0046] The carbon trading information statistical analysis module accesses the online carbon trading data and offline statistical data of the provincial carbon trading platform, provides functions such as carbon emission rights trading information statistical analysis, CCER trading information statistical analysis, and carbon emission rights quota information trend analysis, and outputs provincial carbon quota and carbon trading volume statistics.

[0047] In this embodiment, the inter-annual variation trends of provincial carbon quotas and carbon trading volumes under different scenarios can be calculated by setting the average annual variation of provincial carbon quotas and carbon trading volumes, for example, setting the average annual variation under the baseline scenario to 5%.

[0048] Figure 6 The architecture diagram of the dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem in this implementation case is shown, including a multi-scenario parameter configuration module and a carbon peak and carbon neutrality trend prediction module.

[0049] The multi-scenario parameter configuration module is connected to the mid-year carbon emission intensity forecast of the carbon emission trend analysis subsystem, the mid-year carbon sink trend analysis results of the carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem, the carbon trading and carbon quota data in the carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem, and the new energy carbon emission reduction in the energy utilization level analysis subsystem, and provides the dimension, order of magnitude integration and scenario parameter configuration functions of the above data, providing integrated input data for the carbon peak and carbon neutrality trend prediction module.

[0050] The parameters of the scenario parameter configuration include: industrial structure, industry carbon emission level, annual carbon sink increment, total annual emission reduction of new energy, annual carbon trading volume, annual carbon quota, etc. By setting different values of these parameters, different estimates of the dual carbon trend such as standard scenario (pessimistic) and radical scenario (optimistic) can be reflected. In this embodiment, different values of the input factors related to the calculation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality trends are configured in this module to construct different scenarios and realize the prediction of carbon peak and carbon neutrality trends under multiple scenarios. As shown in the following table:

[0051] Table 1 Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Scenario Parameter Configuration Table

[0052]

[0053] The carbon peak and carbon neutrality trend forecast module provides a scenario-based carbon peak and carbon neutrality trend forecast function. The total carbon emissions forecast value GCE for the entire industry in the province in year t can be calculated using formula (7). t ,

[0054] GCE t =f(CI t ,CR t ,QU t ,TR t ) (7)

[0055] Among them, CI t The carbon emission intensity of the year is calculated by the carbon emission trend analysis subsystem, CR t The total annual emission reduction of new energy in the province in that year is calculated by the energy utilization level analysis subsystem by setting different scenario parameters. t and TR tThe carbon quota and carbon trading volume of the year are calculated by the carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem, and historical data are accumulated. The f(CI t ,CR t ,QU t ,TR t ) expression.

[0056] In this embodiment, the STIRPAT model is used for ridge regression modeling, and the fitting formula is formula (8):

[0057] GCE t =αCI t β CR t ζ QU t δ ,TR t θ (8)

[0058] Using 20 years of historical data, we fit the values of α, β, ζ, δ, and θ and calculate GCE. t The value of the independent variable CI t ,CR t ,QU t ,TR t After the multi-scenario parameter configuration module sets different scenario parameters, the above-mentioned other subsystems calculate and output them.

[0059] when When the tth year is the carbon peak year of the province, the corresponding GCE t This is the peak carbon emissions of all industries in the province;

[0060] When GCE t -CC t = 0, the tth year is the carbon neutral year for the province, where CC t The carbon sink analysis and assessment subsystem calculates the predicted carbon sink for the province in year t by setting different scenario parameters. Its physical meaning is that carbon neutrality is achieved when the annual carbon emissions and annual carbon sinks of all industries in the province are equal. The prediction and assessment results of different scenarios provide intuitive data basis for provincial dual carbon work decision-making, which will facilitate the planning and arrangement of future dual carbon work.

[0061] The existing carbon emission accounting methods include the macro emission factor method and the mass balance method, as well as the micro measurement method. The macro methods all use the emission measurement methods given by international organizations such as the IPCC and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency based on their respective experimental scopes. There are problems with the timeliness of their statistical indicators and their applicability to China's actual industrial situation. The micro method is only applicable to small-scale experiments, tends to be theoretically verified, and is not applicable to the analysis of actual large-scale real environments. The above methods are only based on static indicators or small-scale monitoring of international authoritative organizations for the measurement and prediction of carbon emissions, and do not take into account the actual industrial production and social life. In terms of future improvements in the level of new energy utilization, optimization of industrial structure, enhancement of carbon sequestration capacity, and green policies reflected through carbon trading, the progress may be made. The present invention re-analyzes and defines the quantitative indicators of various aspects of dual-carbon factors in actual production, and sets different scenario parameters to achieve a comprehensive and integrated analysis and prediction of future development trends of carbon emissions.

[0062] The analysis and calculation results of the above subsystems can be shared with other subsystems through the system data bus. Figure 7 The system data bus architecture diagram in this implementation case is shown, including a service interface module, a message queue module, and a bus configuration and authentication module.

[0063] The service interface module provides a data calling interface between systems for the energy utilization analysis subsystem, carbon emission situation analysis subsystem, dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem, carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem, and carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem based on the web service protocol.

[0064] The message queue module is based on RabbitMQ technology and provides inter-system asynchronous message transmission function for the energy utilization analysis subsystem, carbon emission situation analysis subsystem, dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem, carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem, and carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem.

[0065] The bus configuration and authentication module provides functions for viewing, retrieving, registering, and configuring web service call interfaces between systems; provides functions such as message topic subscription and message queue parameter configuration for RabbitMQ message queues; and provides bus message queue and service interface access security authentication services based on the Shiro security framework.

[0066] Finally, it should be noted that the embodiments described are only part of the embodiments of this application, not all of them. Based on the embodiments in this application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making any creative efforts are within the scope of protection of this application.

Claims

1. A provincial-level regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and assessment system, characterized by: The provincial regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and assessment system includes an energy utilization analysis subsystem, a carbon emission situation analysis subsystem, a dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem, a carbon sink analysis and assessment subsystem, and a carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem, which are connected through a system data bus; The dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem uses the output data of the carbon emission situation analysis subsystem, carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem, energy utilization analysis subsystem, and carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem as input indicators to achieve dual-carbon trend prediction in multiple scenarios; Each subsystem is implemented by a computer program configured in a data processing device; The energy utilization analysis subsystem is connected to the provincial power company's dispatching and marketing system and the hydrogenation station project system to obtain energy structure data, new energy data, and hydrogenation station project data, and output an evaluation of the clean energy and new energy utilization level of the province. The carbon emission trend analysis subsystem is used to monitor and count carbon emissions and analyze carbon emission reduction costs for each department in the province, and to predict carbon emission trends and make decisions on carbon emission reduction paths in the province. The carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem is used to analyze the carbon sink potential of the province and predict the trend of carbon sink changes. The carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem is used to implement statistical analysis of carbon trading information and trend analysis of carbon emission quota information; The dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem is used to integrate the output indicators of other subsystems, calculate multiple indicators, and obtain a provincial and regional dual-carbon trend prediction model based on historical data fitting. By adjusting the model parameters, different scenarios are simulated to predict and evaluate the dual-carbon trends under different scenarios. The system data bus is a channel for data exchange between the subsystems, providing a data access interface for each system to call and realize interoperability between the subsystems. The energy utilization analysis subsystem includes a provincial new energy resource assessment module, a provincial new energy consumption and carrying capacity analysis module, and a provincial new energy utilization potential assessment module. The provincial new energy resource assessment module obtains energy structure data and meteorological resource data of the provincial power company to realize the statistics of new energy resource distribution and new energy power generation resource assessment according to time, space and region; The provincial new energy consumption and carrying capacity analysis module obtains the grid structure, new energy power generation data and hydrogen station project statistics of the provincial power company dispatching system, and performs new energy theoretical power generation calculation, regional new energy carrying capacity assessment and rating index calculation. The provincial new energy utilization potential assessment module receives the output results of the provincial new energy power generation resource assessment module and the provincial new energy consumption and carrying capacity module, and performs provincial new energy utilization potential assessment and new energy emission reduction situation analysis, including: The new energy utilization potential of a province or region is calculated by formula (1), that is, the amount of new energy that can be developed in the province or region in the future. PO=min(RE,BR)-DE (1) Among them, PO is the province's new energy utilization potential, in megawatts; RE is the province's new energy power generation resources that can be developed, in megawatts. RE is output by the province's new energy resource assessment module; DE is the province's new energy power generation installed capacity that has been developed, in megawatts, calculated through statistical data from the power grid dispatching department and marketing department; BR is the province's new energy power grid's new energy carrying capacity, in megawatts, calculated and output by the province's new energy consumption and carrying capacity analysis module. The total annual emission reduction of new energy in a province or region is calculated by formula (2): CR t =DE t ×1000×24×365×η×γ ,DE t ≤DE t-1 +PO t-1 (2) Among them, CR t is the total annual emission reduction of new energy in the province in year t, in tons, DE t is the total installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in the province, η is the efficiency coefficient of renewable energy power generation in the province, dimensionless, DE t ×1000×24×365×η is the total annual power generation of renewable energy in the province, in kilowatt-hours; γ is the conversion coefficient of renewable energy power generation minus carbon dioxide emission reduction, in tons / kilowatt-hours. The constraint condition is that the total installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in the province in year t cannot be greater than the sum of the total installed capacity in year t-1 and the potential for renewable energy utilization in the province in year t-1.

2. A provincial-level regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and assessment system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The carbon emission situation analysis subsystem includes a provincial and regional industry carbon emission monitoring and analysis module and a provincial and regional carbon emission situation prediction module. The provincial and regional industry carbon emission monitoring and analysis module obtains the industry carbon emission monitoring data of the industry carbon emission monitoring system and outputs the annual statistics of carbon emission monitoring of the province, industry and the whole industry. The provincial carbon emission trend prediction module obtains the annual statistics of carbon emission monitoring for each industry and the entire industry output by the provincial industry carbon emission monitoring and analysis module, as well as the industrial structure data obtained by the provincial big data center, and realizes the evolution relationship analysis between industrial structure and carbon emission intensity through formulas (3), (4) and (5). Among them, CI represents the carbon emission intensity of the entire industry in the province, that is, the carbon emissions per unit GDP, CE is the statistical value of carbon emissions of the entire industry, GDP i and CE i They represent the gross domestic product of industry i and the annual statistics of carbon emissions, S i It represents the proportion of GDP of industry i to the GDP of the whole industry, i.e., the industrial structure, I i represents the carbon emission intensity within industry i, By setting different S i and I i Different scenarios are constructed based on the carbon emission values to achieve quantitative analysis and prediction of the development trend of carbon emission intensity under multiple scenarios.

3. The provincial-level regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and assessment system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The carbon sink analysis and assessment subsystem includes a regional annual carbon sink statistical analysis module and a regional carbon sink potential analysis module. The regional annual carbon sink statistical analysis module obtains ecological carbon sink inventory data from the provincial big data center and CCUS carbon capture project monitoring statistics to conduct regional annual carbon sink statistical analysis. The regional carbon sink potential analysis module obtains the ecological carbon sink planning data from the provincial big data center, performs regional carbon sink potential analysis on the ecosystem, outputs the future annual sink increase, and then combines the annual carbon sink statistical data output by the regional annual carbon sink statistical analysis module to output the future carbon sink development trend forecast. The quantitative relationship is as shown in formula (6): CC t =CC t-1 +ΔCC (6) Among them CC t is the predicted value of regional carbon sequestration in the tth year, CC t-1 is the statistical value of regional carbon sequestration in year t-1, ΔCC is the annual increase in regional sequestration, both in tons, which is converted from the annual added accumulation data of various regional ecosystem plans, including forests and farmland.

4. The provincial-level regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and assessment system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem includes a carbon verification information statistical analysis module and a carbon trading information statistical analysis module. The carbon verification information statistical analysis module obtains the carbon verification data of different industries from the provincial carbon trading platform and conducts query and statistical analysis on the carbon verification results of key enterprises in different industries. The carbon trading information statistical analysis module obtains online carbon trading data and offline statistical data from the provincial carbon trading platform, and conducts statistical analysis of carbon emission rights trading information, CCER trading information, and carbon emission rights quota information trend analysis. The analysis results of the carbon verification information statistical analysis module and the carbon trading information statistical analysis module are transmitted to the dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem through the system data bus.

5. The provincial-level regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and assessment system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The dual-carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem includes a multi-scenario parameter configuration module and a carbon peak and carbon neutrality trend prediction module. The multi-scenario parameter configuration module receives the annual carbon emission intensity forecast data of the carbon emission situation analysis subsystem, the annual carbon sink trend analysis results of the carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem, the carbon trading and carbon quota data of the carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem, and the new energy carbon emission reduction data of the energy utilization analysis subsystem, integrates the dimensions and orders of magnitude of the received data, and configures the scenario parameters to provide integrated input data for the carbon peak and carbon neutrality trend prediction module. The carbon peak and carbon neutrality trend forecast module provides a scenario-based carbon peak and carbon neutrality trend forecast function, and calculates the total carbon emissions forecast value GCE for the entire industry in the province in year t through formula (7): t , GCE t =f(CI t ,CR t ,WHAT t ,TR t ) (7) Among them, CI t The carbon emission intensity of the year is calculated by the carbon emission trend analysis subsystem, CR t is the total annual emission reduction of new energy in the province in year t, which is calculated by the energy utilization analysis subsystem by setting different scenario parameters. t and TR t The carbon quota and carbon trading volume of the year are calculated by the carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem; historical data are accumulated and the f(CI t ,CR t ,QU t ,TR t ), when When the tth year is the carbon peak year of the province, the corresponding GCE t That is the peak carbon emissions of all industries in the province. When GCE t -CC t = 0, the tth year is the carbon neutral year for the province, where CC t It is the predicted value of the carbon sink in the province in year t, which is calculated by the carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem by setting different scenario parameters. Its physical meaning is that carbon neutrality is achieved when the annual carbon emissions and annual carbon sinks of all industries in the province are equal.

6. The provincial-level regional dual-carbon comprehensive analysis and assessment system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The system data bus includes: service interface module, message queue module, bus configuration and authentication module, The service interface module provides a data calling interface between systems for the energy utilization analysis subsystem, carbon emission situation analysis subsystem, dual carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem, carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem, and carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem in the form of web services. The message queue module provides asynchronous message transmission between systems for the energy utilization analysis subsystem, carbon emission situation analysis subsystem, dual carbon comprehensive analysis subsystem, carbon sink analysis and evaluation subsystem, and carbon trading statistical analysis subsystem in the form of message queues. The bus configuration and authentication module provides functions of viewing, retrieving, registering and configuring service call interfaces between systems; provides message topic subscription and message queue parameter configuration functions for message queues; and provides bus message queue and service interface access security authority authentication services.

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