A method for quantitatively analyzing a bilateral relationship based on an event stream

Abstract

The application provides a kind of bilateral relationship quantitative analysis method based on event stream, the method comprises: selecting data source, collating the bilateral event of interest;According to the coding system established or selected in advance, the event is converted into corresponding event score;Based on the bilateral relationship score before the event occurs, the influence score of the event on the bilateral relationship is determined;The bilateral relationship score after the event occurs is calculated.According to the above scheme of the application, the bilateral relationship is updated by the scale of a single event, and the historical accumulation of the bilateral relationship and the different influence of the event score on the bilateral relationship are considered, which is an effective supplement and improvement to the existing event data analysis method, especially suitable for the rapid growth of event quantity in the big data era.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of data processing, and in particular to a method for quantitative analysis of bilateral relationships based on event flow. Background Technology

[0002] In international strategic competition, bilateral relations between the participating parties are a key focus of strategic research. By studying bilateral relations, the development process of strategic issues can be analyzed, and to some extent, their development trends can be predicted. Early international relations studies primarily focused on the changing nature of state relations. Researchers, leveraging their insights and employing relatively mature theoretical paradigms, accumulated experience in international relations through historical retrospection and case studies, using this experience to analyze the present and predict the future. In the 1960s, research on state relations shifted from primarily qualitative analysis to primarily quantitative analysis. Since bilateral relations are manifested through events between two countries (regions or organizations), event data analysis is the fundamental method for quantitatively measuring bilateral relations.

[0003] There is a lack of solutions for current bilateral relationship measurement based on event data analysis. Summary of the Invention

[0004] To address the aforementioned technical problems, this invention proposes a quantitative analysis method for bilateral relationships based on event flow, which overcomes the limitations of existing methods for analyzing bilateral relationships based on event data.

[0005] This invention provides a method for quantitative analysis of bilateral relationships based on event flow, the method comprising the following steps:

[0006] A quantitative analysis method for bilateral relationships based on event flow, the method comprising the following steps:

[0007] Step S101: Select a data source, obtain target data, and obtain the bilateral event data of interest based on the target data;

[0008] Step S102: Encode the obtained bilateral event data of interest to obtain the event score of the bilateral event data of interest;

[0009] Step S103: Obtain the bilateral relationship score before the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest, and determine the influence score of the bilateral event of interest on the bilateral relationship;

[0010] Step S104: Calculate the bilateral relationship score after the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest, based on the bilateral relationship score before the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest and the influence score of the bilateral event of interest on the bilateral relationship.

[0011] In one embodiment, the data sources include media data and open-source event databases;

[0012] The process of selecting data sources, acquiring target data, and obtaining bilateral event data of interest includes: deduplicating the media data and filtering out bilateral event data of interest; or setting the time, source country, target country, and message release source for the data obtained from the open-source event database and filtering out bilateral event data of interest.

[0013] In one embodiment, encoding the obtained bilateral event data of interest to obtain the event score of the bilateral event data of interest includes:

[0014] The obtained bilateral event data of interest are encoded through an encoding system; the encoding system includes quantitative standards and scoring criteria for the bilateral events of interest.

[0015] In one embodiment, step S103, which involves obtaining the bilateral relationship score before the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest and determining the influence score of the bilateral event of interest on the bilateral relationship, includes:

[0016] For the event The formula for calculating the influence score on bilateral relations is as follows:

[0017] (1);

[0018] Where t is the time of occurrence, k is the event number, and the events that occurred on that day are numbered, with a range of... ;in, Let be the total number of events that occurred on day t. The score is the event score, and its value ranges from [-N, N]. For the event The bilateral relationship score before the incident It is a proportionality coefficient;

[0019] like Then the influence score for ;

[0020] like and Then the influence score =0;

[0021] like and Then the influence score for ;

[0022] In one embodiment, calculating the bilateral relationship score after the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest, based on the bilateral relationship score before the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest and the influence score of the bilateral event of interest on the bilateral relationship, includes:

[0023] The formula for calculating the bilateral relationship score after the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest is as follows:

[0024] (2);

[0025] The score represents the impact of the event on bilateral relations; Let be the score of the bilateral relationship after the last event on day t, so the bilateral relationship on day t is considered to be equal to . ;

[0026] At the same time, the agreement That is, if no event occurs, the bilateral relationship value for that day will be the same as the previous day.

[0027] This invention updates bilateral relations at the scale of individual events, taking into account both the historical accumulation of bilateral relations and the different impacts of event scores on bilateral relations. It is an effective supplement and improvement to existing event data analysis methods, and is especially suitable for situations where the number of events is growing rapidly in the era of big data. Attached Figure Description

[0028] The accompanying drawings, which form part of this invention, are used to provide a further understanding of the invention, and the invention is illustrated by the following drawings. In the drawings:

[0029] Figure 1 A flowchart illustrating a bilateral relationship quantitative analysis method based on event flow, according to one embodiment of the present invention;

[0030] Figure 2 This is an auxiliary diagram for calculating the influence score of an event on bilateral relations in one embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0031] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this invention clearer, the technical solutions of this invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with specific embodiments and corresponding drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of this invention, and not all of them. Based on the embodiments of this invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of this invention.

[0032] In one embodiment, please refer to [the relevant documentation / reference]. Figure 1It provides a flowchart of a method for quantitative analysis of bilateral relationships based on event flow;

[0033] A quantitative analysis method for bilateral relationships based on event flow, the method comprising the following steps:

[0034] Step S101: Select a data source, obtain target data, and obtain the bilateral event data of interest based on the target data;

[0035] Step S102: Encode the obtained bilateral event data of interest to obtain the event score of the bilateral event data of interest;

[0036] Step S103: Obtain the bilateral relationship score before the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest, and determine the influence score of the bilateral event of interest on the bilateral relationship;

[0037] Step S104: Calculate the bilateral relationship score after the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest, based on the bilateral relationship score before the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest and the influence score of the bilateral event of interest on the bilateral relationship.

[0038] In one embodiment, the data sources include media data and open-source event databases;

[0039] The process of selecting data sources, acquiring target data, and obtaining the bilateral event data of interest includes deduplicating the media data and filtering out the bilateral event data of interest.

[0040] Alternatively, data obtained from the open-source event database can be categorized by time, source country, target country, and news source, and then filtered to identify bilateral events of interest. Specifically, data sources are selected, and the bilateral events of interest are organized; the data sources can be several authoritative media outlets or an open-source event database, wherein:

[0041] The bilateral events that researchers are interested in are events that occur between two countries (regions or organizations) that the researchers are studying. If the data source is several authoritative media outlets, it is necessary to remove duplicate events. If the data source is an open-source event database, it is also necessary to set the time, source country, target country, and source of information release to filter out the required event data.

[0042] In one embodiment, encoding the obtained bilateral event data of interest to obtain the event score of the bilateral event data of interest includes:

[0043] The obtained bilateral event data of interest are encoded through an encoding system; the encoding system includes quantitative standards and scoring criteria for the bilateral events of interest.

[0044] Specifically, according to a pre-established or selected coding system, an event is converted into a corresponding event score; the coding system mainly includes standards for quantifying various events, which can be developed by the researchers themselves or selected from publicly available coding systems on the internet, wherein:

[0045] The coding system primarily serves as the basis for scoring events, including the range of event scores and the score values ​​for typical events. Open-source event databases have already assigned values ​​to their events according to the corresponding coding system, which can be directly used as event scores.

[0046] Specifically, based on the bilateral relationship score before the event, an influence score on the bilateral relationship is determined; the bilateral relationship score is a quantitative representation of the bilateral relationship; the influence score is jointly determined by the bilateral relationship score before the event and the event score, wherein:

[0047] After step S102, an event structure can be extracted, as shown in Table 1. We only need to consider the event occurrence time, event number, and event score. The event score g(t,k) and the range N are related to the specific coding system used.

[0048] Table 1 Event Structure

[0049]

[0050] In one embodiment, step S103, which involves obtaining the bilateral relationship score before the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest and determining the influence score of the bilateral event of interest on the bilateral relationship, includes:

[0051] For the event The formula for calculating the influence score on bilateral relations is as follows:

[0052] (1);

[0053] Where t is the time of occurrence, k is the event number, and the events that occurred on that day are numbered, with a range of... ;in, Let be the total number of events that occurred on day t. The score is the event score, and its value ranges from [-N, N]. For the event The bilateral relationship score before the incident It is a proportionality coefficient.

[0054] like Then the influence score for ;

[0055] like and Then the influence score =0;

[0056] like and Then the influence score for ;

[0057] Specifically, the following is combined with Figure 2 The principle and logic of formula (1) will be explained.

[0058] exist Figure 2 In this context, -N and N represent the boundary values ​​for the bilateral relationship score and the event score, respectively. We assume the bilateral relationship score before the event occurs is... Its location is shown in the figure. Event The score has three typical locations, as shown in points 1, 2, and 3 in the figure. When the event... When the score is at point 1, the event will have a negative impact on bilateral relations; the magnitude of the impact score depends on the event. It is related to the score value, and is When the event When the score is at point 2, it means the event's score is lower than the original bilateral relationship value, and it can be considered that the event will not affect the bilateral relationship; the influence score is 0. When the score is at point 3, the event will have a positive impact on bilateral relations. The magnitude of the impact score depends on the event. and The difference between them is related to, for .when The analysis process is similar at that time.

[0059] In one embodiment, calculating the bilateral relationship score after the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest, based on the bilateral relationship score before the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest and the influence score of the bilateral event of interest on the bilateral relationship, includes:

[0060] The formula for calculating the bilateral relationship score after the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest is as follows:

[0061] (2);

[0062] The score represents the impact of the event on bilateral relations; Let be the score of the bilateral relationship after the last event on day t, so the bilateral relationship on day t is considered to be equal to . ;

[0063] At the same time, the agreement That is, if no event occurs, the bilateral relationship value for that day will be the same as the previous day.

[0064] Specifically, the bilateral relationship score after the event is calculated; the bilateral relationship score after the event is obtained by adding the bilateral relationship score before the event and the influence score of the event on the bilateral relationship.

[0065] As a specific implementation method, the event flow-based bilateral relationship quantitative analysis method includes the following steps:

[0066] Select data sources and compile the bilateral events of interest; the data sources can be several authoritative media outlets or open-source event databases;

[0067] According to a pre-established or selected coding system, an event is converted into a corresponding event score; the coding system mainly includes standards for quantifying various events, which can be formulated by the researchers themselves or selected from publicly available coding systems on the Internet;

[0068] Based on the bilateral relationship score before the event, the influence score of the event on the bilateral relationship is determined; the bilateral relationship score is a quantitative representation of the bilateral relationship; the influence score is jointly determined by the bilateral relationship score before the event and the event score.

[0069] Calculate the bilateral relationship score after the event occurs; the bilateral relationship score after the event occurs is obtained by adding the bilateral relationship score before the event occurs and the influence score of the event on the bilateral relationship.

[0070] The above description is merely a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention in any way. Any simple modifications, equivalent changes, and alterations made to the above embodiments based on the technical essence of the present invention shall still fall within the scope of the technical solution of the present invention.

Claims

1. A quantitative analysis method for bilateral relationships based on event flow, the method comprising the following steps: Step S101: Select a data source, obtain target data, and obtain the bilateral event data of interest based on the target data; Step S102: Encode the obtained bilateral event data of interest to obtain the event score of the bilateral event data of interest; Step S103: Obtain the bilateral relationship score before the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest, and determine the influence score of the bilateral event of interest on the bilateral relationship; specifically including: For the event The formula for calculating the influence score on bilateral relations is as follows: Where t is the time of occurrence, k is the event number, and the events that occurred on that day are numbered, with a range of... ;in, Let be the total number of events that occurred on day t. The score is the event score, and its value ranges from [-N, N]. For the event The bilateral relationship score before the incident It is a proportionality coefficient; like Then the influence score for ; like and Then the influence score =0; like and Then the influence score for ; Step S104: Calculate the bilateral relationship score after the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest, based on the bilateral relationship score before the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest and the influence score of the bilateral event of interest on the bilateral relationship.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The data sources include media data and open-source event databases; The process of selecting data sources, acquiring target data, and obtaining the bilateral event data of interest includes deduplicating the media data and filtering out the bilateral event data of interest. Alternatively, the data obtained from the open-source event database can be set with time, source country, target country, and message publication source, and bilateral event data of interest can be filtered out.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that, The step of encoding the obtained bilateral event data of interest to obtain the event score of the bilateral event data of interest includes: encoding the obtained bilateral event data of interest through an encoding system; the encoding system includes quantitative standards and scoring criteria for the bilateral events of interest.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The calculation of the bilateral relationship score after the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest, based on the bilateral relationship score before the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest and the influence score of the bilateral event of interest on the bilateral relationship, includes: The formula for calculating the bilateral relationship score after the occurrence of the bilateral event of interest is as follows: ； The score represents the impact of the event on bilateral relations; Let be the score of the bilateral relationship after the last event on day t, so the bilateral relationship on day t is considered to be equal to . ; At the same time, the agreement That is, if no event occurs, the bilateral relationship value for that day will be the same as the previous day.

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