Deepwater oilfield development production prediction method, electronic device, apparatus, and storage medium

Abstract

The application discloses a deepwater oilfield development yield prediction method, an electronic device, an apparatus and a storage medium, wherein the method comprises: predicting the natural yield of old wells, the yield increasing potential of old wells, the yield of new wells, planned yield loss and non-planned yield loss for each prediction year respectively; wherein predicting the non-planned yield loss comprises: determining the development stage to which a well area belongs, wherein for the well area in the aging stage, a historical curve graph of the non-planned loss rate and time relationship is determined first, the non-planned loss rate in the prediction year is calculated by fitting the relationship between the non-planned yield loss rate and the production time of the aging stage in the curve graph, the non-planned loss rate in the prediction year is corrected by using a correction factor to determine the final non-planned loss rate in the prediction year, so as to determine the non-planned yield loss in the prediction year; and the deepwater oilfield development yield is calculated according to the above prediction results.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of petroleum extraction technology, and in particular to a method for predicting production in deepwater oilfields, electronic equipment, apparatus, and storage medium. Background Technology

[0002] Deepwater oilfields are mostly characterized by medium-to-high porosity, medium-to-high permeability, and edge / bottom water, and are developed using water injection and gas injection methods. However, drilling, FPSO platforms, and laying subsea pipelines and cables are costly. Furthermore, most oil companies expect to recover costs quickly; therefore, "fewer wells, higher production, and rapid extraction" is a consistent strategy for most deepwater oilfield development. Deepwater oilfield development faces challenges such as uncertainties in geological reservoir understanding, unique extraction methods, and instability of offshore engineering systems, all of which significantly impact production forecasting. Therefore, how to quickly and accurately predict oilfield production and rationally assess economic benefits is of practical significance for oilfield development.

[0003] Many methods exist for oilfield production forecasting, with reservoir engineering and numerical simulation being the most common. Reservoir engineering utilizes simple mathematical models of production-time relationships, such as Arps, the Ongsonian model, and the Logistic function, for production prediction. However, due to the instability of deepwater oilfield offshore systems, the significant proportion of planned and unplanned production losses, and the poor regularity of actual production data, conventional reservoir engineering methods are unsuitable for forecasting. Numerical simulation requires detailed geological modeling and extensive historical data fitting in the early stages. During annual oilfield production allocation, the simulation model and historical data fitting need to be continuously updated, making this method time-consuming.

[0004] Therefore, there is an urgent need for a process and method that is adapted to the characteristics of deepwater oilfields, takes into account all factors, and is highly operable for rapid production prediction in deepwater oilfields. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The purpose of this invention is to propose a method, electronic device, apparatus, and storage medium for predicting production in deepwater oilfields, which can quickly and accurately predict oilfield production and provide a basis for decision-making in production allocation for deepwater oilfield development.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides a method for predicting production in deepwater oilfields, comprising: determining the factors influencing production in the predicted year, wherein the influencing factors include: natural production of old wells, production potential of old wells, production of new wells, planned production loss, and unplanned production loss;

[0007] For each forecast year, predict the natural production of old wells, the production potential of old wells, the production of new wells, the planned production loss and the unplanned production loss.

[0008] The prediction of unplanned production loss includes: determining the development stage of the well area, which includes the break-in stage, stabilization stage, and aging stage; for well areas in the aging stage, firstly determining the historical curve of the relationship between the unplanned loss rate and time; by fitting the relationship between the unplanned production loss rate and production time in the aging stage curve, calculating the unplanned loss rate for the predicted year; and then correcting the unplanned loss rate using a correction factor to determine the final unplanned loss rate for the predicted year, thereby determining the unplanned production loss for the predicted year.

[0009] Calculate deepwater oilfield development output using the following formula:

[0010] Q(tr)=Qo(tr)+I(tr)+Qx(tr)-P(tr)-UP(tr)

[0011] Wherein, Q(tr) is the predicted deepwater oilfield development output, Qo(tr) is the predicted natural output of old wells, I(tr) is the predicted production potential of old wells, Qx(tr) is the predicted output of new wells, P(tr) is the predicted planned output loss, and UP(tr) is the predicted unplanned output loss.

[0012] According to a preferred embodiment of the present invention, when predicting the natural output of an old well, the outliers in the historical output data are first identified, and the outliers are corrected using the output loss data. The corrected data is then used as the natural output of the old well.

[0013] According to a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the formula for calculating the unplanned production loss is as follows:

[0014] B = A * λ * β(tr)

[0015] Where B represents the unplanned production loss in the forecast year; A represents the total production in the forecast year; λ is the correction factor; and β(tr) is the final unplanned loss rate in the forecast year.

[0016] According to a specific embodiment of the present invention, a method for predicting the production potential of an old well includes: predicting the production potential of the old well in the current year and future years based on production enhancement measures and the year in which the production enhancement measures are taken, wherein the production enhancement measures include: well workover, water shut-off and profile control, and refined reservoir management.

[0017] Specifically, methods for predicting new well production include: calculating new well production based on the new well commissioning schedule, initial designed production, and production profile.

[0018] According to a preferred embodiment of the present invention, a method for predicting the natural production of old wells includes: for old wells in the aging stage, selecting a period of time with relatively stable production operation system, and based on the judgment criteria of Arps decline type, regressing the production decline formula, and calculating the natural production of old wells in the predicted year according to the formula.

[0019] The present invention also provides an electronic device, comprising:

[0020] At least one processor; and,

[0021] A memory communicatively connected to the at least one processor; wherein,

[0022] The memory stores instructions that can be executed by the at least one processor, which enables the at least one processor to perform the aforementioned deepwater oilfield development production prediction method.

[0023] The present invention also provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing computer instructions for causing a computer to execute the above-described deepwater oilfield development production prediction method.

[0024] The present invention also provides a deepwater oilfield development production prediction device, comprising:

[0025] The old well natural yield prediction module is used to predict the natural yield of the old well in the predicted year;

[0026] The old well production potential prediction module is used to predict the production potential of old wells in the predicted year.

[0027] New well production prediction module, which is used to predict the production of new wells in the predicted year;

[0028] A planned production loss prediction module, which is used to predict the planned production loss in the predicted year;

[0029] An unplanned production loss prediction module is used to predict unplanned production losses in a predicted year. The module includes a fitting unit and a correction unit. The fitting unit is used to determine the development stage of the well area, and for well areas in the aging stage, to determine a historical curve of the relationship between the unplanned loss rate and time. By fitting the relationship between the unplanned production loss rate and production time in the aging stage curve, the unplanned loss rate for the predicted year is calculated.

[0030] The correction unit is used to correct the unplanned loss rate using a correction factor to determine the final unplanned loss rate for the forecast year, thereby determining the unplanned production loss for the forecast year.

[0031] The development production calculation module calculates the development production of the deepwater oilfield in the predicted year based on the predicted natural production of old wells in the predicted year, the production potential of old wells in the predicted year, the production of new wells in the predicted year, the planned production loss in the predicted year, and the unplanned production loss in the predicted year.

[0032] According to a specific embodiment of the present invention, the old well natural production prediction module includes an anomaly correction unit, which is used to identify anomalies in historical production data, correct the anomalies in production data using production loss data, and use the corrected data as the natural production of the old well.

[0033] The beneficial effects of this invention are as follows:

[0034] (1) This method takes into account the characteristics of deepwater oilfield development and provides a good basis for production prediction in deepwater oilfield development. It avoids the disadvantages of time-consuming geological modeling and historical fitting prediction to a certain extent and is suitable for the needs of many medium and deepwater oilfield projects to quickly and reasonably predict future production.

[0035] (2) This method has a good theoretical basis, is reasonable, and has simple and clear steps, which can make decisions quickly.

[0036] (3) This method is highly practical and can be applied to production forecasting in the development and production of overseas and domestic medium-deep water oilfield clusters, including operator and non-operator projects.

[0037] The present invention has other features and advantages, which will be apparent from or will be set forth in detail in the accompanying drawings and the following detailed description, which together serve to explain the particular principles of the invention. Attached Figure Description

[0038] The above and other objects, features and advantages of the present invention will become more apparent from the more detailed description of exemplary embodiments of the invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0039] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the relationship between unplanned production loss rate and time in a deepwater oilfield according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0040] Figure 2 This is a flowchart of a deepwater oilfield development production prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0041] Figure 3 This is a graph showing the relationship between the actual unplanned loss rate of deep-water block W and time, according to an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0042] Due to the large investment required for deepwater oilfields, the instability of offshore engineering systems, and the poor regularity of actual production data, rapid and accurate oilfield production forecasting has become a major challenge for production decision-makers in annual production allocation. Current forecasting methods include those applicable to areas with clear production decline patterns and small production losses, which can utilize common reservoir engineering methods. Other methods employ complex geological modeling and extensive historical data fitting, but these are too time-consuming and require large amounts of data, thus hindering effective and rapid forecasting. Against this backdrop, this invention, considering the characteristics of deepwater oilfields and comprehensively taking into account various factors affecting production, proposes a method for rapid production forecasting in deepwater oilfields, providing a basis for decision-making in deepwater oilfield development and production allocation.

[0043] The embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples, thereby enabling a full understanding of how the present invention uses technical means to solve technical problems and achieve technical effects, and allowing for implementation accordingly. It should be noted that, as long as there is no conflict, the various embodiments and features in each embodiment of the present invention can be combined with each other, and the resulting technical solutions are all within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0044] This embodiment discloses a method for predicting production in deepwater oilfield development, including: determining the factors affecting production in the predicted year, wherein the factors include: natural production of old wells, production potential of old wells, production of new wells, planned production loss, and unplanned production loss;

[0045] For each forecast year, predict the natural production of old wells, the production potential of old wells, the production of new wells, the planned production loss and the unplanned production loss.

[0046] The prediction of unplanned production loss includes: determining the development stage of the well area, which includes the break-in stage, stabilization stage, and aging stage; for well areas in the aging stage, firstly determining the historical curve of the relationship between the unplanned loss rate and time; by fitting the relationship between the unplanned production loss rate and production time in the aging stage curve, calculating the unplanned loss rate for the predicted year; and then correcting the unplanned loss rate using a correction factor to determine the final unplanned loss rate for the predicted year, thereby determining the unplanned production loss for the predicted year.

[0047] Calculate deepwater oilfield development output using the following formula:

[0048] Q(tr)=Qo(tr)+I(tr)+Qx(tr)-P(tr)-UP(tr)

[0049] Wherein, Q(tr) is the predicted deepwater oilfield development output, Qo(tr) is the predicted natural output of old wells, I(tr) is the predicted production potential of old wells, Qx(tr) is the predicted output of new wells, P(tr) is the predicted planned output loss, and UP(tr) is the predicted unplanned output loss.

[0050] Specifically, this invention is applied to rapid production prediction in deepwater oilfield production planning. It selects the target deepwater block for prediction, which includes multiple oil reservoirs, each sharing a single offshore system for production. This can be achieved through the following technical steps:

[0051] The first step is to identify the factors affecting production. This involves identifying all factors that affect deepwater oilfield production, including production from existing wells, the potential for increasing production from existing wells, production from new wells, planned production losses, and unplanned production losses.

[0052] The second step is to predict the natural production of old wells for each forecast year. All reservoirs in the deepwater target block are located within the same offshore system or FPSO. The natural production of old wells is predicted for each reservoir, analyzing the development stage of individual wells. Different prediction methods are used for different development stages. Furthermore, the instability of the offshore system leads to numerous outliers in historical production data. Production loss data is used to correct these outliers, and the corrected data is used as the natural production of the old wells. If production is in a stable production phase, the natural production for the forecast year is estimated based on the stable production years of the development design. If production is in a declining phase, a relatively stable production period is selected. Based on the Arps decline type criteria, a regression formula for declining production is used. Generally, a correlation coefficient greater than 0.85 for the decline curve is considered sufficient to calculate the natural production for the forecast year.

[0053] Table 1. Arps Decreasing Relationships

[0054]

[0055] In the formula, q0 represents the oil production at the end of the stable production period or when it begins to decline, and q represents the oil production at the beginning of the decline. t - Oil production at time t after the decline begins, n - Decline exponent, d i - Initial decrease rate, t - time.

[0056] The third step is to predict the production potential of old wells. The main production enhancement measures in deepwater oilfields include well workover, water shut-off and profile control, and refined reservoir management. The impact of the production enhancement measures in the predicted year on the production of the current year and future years is analyzed, and the production enhancement profile of the measures is reasonably evaluated based on the measures plan.

[0057] The fourth step is to predict the production of new wells. New wells in deepwater oilfields include scheme wells, infill wells, and adjustment wells. Based on the production schedule of new wells, the designed initial production, and the production profile, the production of new wells in the predicted year is calculated.

[0058] The fifth step is to predict planned production losses in the block. Production losses in deepwater oilfields are a very important factor affecting production, and these losses mainly include planned and unplanned production losses. Planned production losses refer to production losses caused by planned maintenance of offshore systems and working wells. These losses are caused by maintenance measures planned in advance when production is deployed. This type of loss data can be predicted based on the maintenance plan's timing, specific content, and the degree of production loss.

[0059] Step 6: Predict unplanned production losses in the block. Unplanned losses refer to production losses caused by various temporary failures, mainly including production losses caused by the cessation of production wells due to generator failures, compressor failures, operating system signal failures, pipeline failures, production well failures, and oil and gas export failures. This type of production loss accounts for a high proportion of the total production loss and total production, and its value is relatively difficult to assess.

[0060] The following evaluation method was applied. First, through literature review and case analysis, it was found that the relationship between the unplanned production loss rate β of the offshore engineering system and the production time t exhibits a concave curve shape (e.g., Figure 1 The unplanned production loss rate β is the ratio of unplanned production loss to natural production in an oilfield for a given year t. In the early operational phase of a deepwater oilfield, various offshore engineering equipment requires initial break-in, resulting in more malfunctions and a higher unplanned production loss rate. After the break-in period, the offshore system enters a relatively efficient and stable phase (peak system efficiency), and the unplanned production loss rate β(tr) for the predicted year tr should be a stable value. As the equipment gradually ages, the system enters the later aging phase, and the number of malfunctions gradually increases, leading to a rise in the unplanned production loss rate. During the early system break-in and later aging phases, the unplanned loss rate β(tr) decreases and increases with time tr. The unplanned loss rate β(tr) for the predicted year tr is calculated using a regression formula based on historical statistical curves (with a correlation coefficient greater than 0.85). In addition, since historical curves cannot fully reflect the operational capabilities and production management of the future offshore engineering system maintenance team, in the event of changes in the management team or maintenance conditions, relying solely on historical data may lead to inaccurate judgments. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis and prediction of the management and maintenance of offshore engineering equipment in the predicted year, and use the correction factor λ to further correct the unplanned loss rate β(tr) of the predicted year. Finally, the unplanned production loss of the predicted year is calculated using formula (1).

[0061] B=A*λ*β(tr) (1)

[0062] In the formula, B is the unplanned production loss in the predicted year; A is the total production in the predicted year, including the natural production of old wells, the production potential of old wells, and the production of new wells; λ is the correction factor; and β(tr) is the unplanned loss rate in the predicted year.

[0063] Step 7: Predict the overall production of the deepwater block. Based on step 2, calculate the sum of the predicted natural production of each reservoir's individual wells as the production of the old wells, Qo(tr). Based on step 3, calculate the production potential of the old wells, I(tr). Based on step 4, calculate the production of the new wells, Qx(tr). Based on steps 5 and 6, calculate the planned production loss P(tr) and the unplanned production loss UP(tr) of the block. Finally, calculate the overall block production Q(tr) for the predicted year using formula (2).

[0064] Q(tr)=Qo(tr)+I(tr)+Qx(tr)-P(tr)-UP(tr) (2)

[0065] This invention comprehensively considers the characteristics of deepwater oilfield development, providing a sound basis for production forecasting in deepwater oilfield development. It avoids, to some extent, the time-consuming drawbacks of geological modeling and historical data fitting prediction, and is suitable for the need for rapid and reasonable future production forecasting in numerous medium-deepwater oilfield projects. This invention has a sound theoretical foundation, is reasonable, and its steps are simple and clear, enabling rapid decision-making. This invention is highly practical and can be applied to production forecasting in the development and production allocation of both operator and non-operator projects in overseas and domestic medium-deepwater oilfield clusters.

[0066] Example 1

[0067] To illustrate the application effect of this invention in production prediction of deepwater oilfield blocks, a deepwater oilfield block W overseas is used as an example, and a detailed description is given below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0068] like Figure 2 As shown, Figure 2 The flowchart of a specific embodiment of the deepwater oilfield production prediction method of the present invention is as follows: In step S1, the target deepwater block W to be predicted is selected. The oil reservoir group contained in the block is developed using a single offshore engineering system (FPSO). Production prediction work is carried out, and the process proceeds to step S2.

[0069] In step S2, factors affecting production are preliminarily identified. Deepwater oilfield block W includes three reservoirs, A, B, and C, and is developed using a leased FPSO offshore platform. The factors preliminarily identified affecting the block's production are: natural production from existing wells, production potential of existing wells, production from new wells, planned production losses, and unplanned production losses.

[0070] In step S3, the natural production of old wells is predicted. Block W includes three reservoirs: A, B, and C. The historical production data of individual wells in the provided reservoirs are processed, and a period of relatively stable production is selected. Anomalies in production (caused by maintenance and malfunctions) are restored to obtain the natural production data of individual wells. All three reservoirs are in the middle and late stages of development, with water cuts of approximately 60%-70%. Based on the Arps decline type judgment criteria, a regression formula for the decline of natural production of individual wells is used. The correlation coefficients are all above 0.9. The natural production of individual wells in each reservoir in the predicted year (2020) is calculated using the decline formula. The natural production data of reservoirs A, B, and C are obtained by combining the natural production of each individual well, as detailed in Table 1.

[0071] In step S4, the production potential of old wells is predicted. In Block W, there were four well workovers for production enhancement in 2020, with production enhancement starting in July. The production enhancement profile after workover was determined by the workover plan. The predicted monthly production enhancement data are detailed in Table 1.

[0072] In step S5, the production of the new well is predicted. A new infill well was drilled at the end of 2019 and is expected to be put into production in January 2020, with an initial production of 6,000 barrels / day. According to the design plan for the new well, it is expected to maintain stable production in the first year of production. Therefore, the production of the new well in 2020 will remain at the initial production level.

[0073] In step S6, the planned production loss is predicted. Based on the maintenance measures expected to be carried out in the offshore engineering system in 2020, mainly including pipeline cleaning, pump inspection and well repair, production loss will occur. The planned monthly production loss of Block W is detailed in Table 2.

[0074] In step S7, unplanned production losses are predicted. Block W has been in operation for 13 years. The offshore engineering system experienced an early break-in period from 2006 to 2008, during which the unplanned loss rate decreased from 12% to 6.5%. From 2009 to 2015, it entered a highly efficient and stable phase, with the unplanned loss rate remaining around 6%. Since 2016, it has entered an aging phase, and the unplanned loss rate has gradually increased. Figure 3The predicted year 2020 is the late aging stage. By fitting the regression of the unplanned loss rate of the aging stage with the time curve segment (2017 to 2019), the annual increase rate of the unplanned production loss rate β is 10%, and the fitting correlation coefficient is greater than 0.9. Since the unplanned loss rate in 2019 was 11.4%, the unplanned loss rate in 2020 is predicted to be 12.5%. In addition, given that the operator's production management is stable, the maintenance measures of the offshore system were well implemented in 2019, and the maintenance strategy in 2020 is more proactive, it is predicted that the production situation in 2020 will be better and the failure rate will be reduced. A correction factor of 0.9 is given. The predicted total block production in 2020 (including the natural production of old wells, the production potential of old wells and the production of new wells) is 106.2 thousand barrels / day. Then, using formula (1), the estimated unplanned production loss value in 2020 is 11.9 thousand barrels / day.

[0075] In step S8, the block production is comprehensively predicted. By calculating the natural production of old wells, the production potential of old wells, the production of new wells, the planned production loss, and the unplanned production loss, the production to be deployed in 2020 is calculated using formula (2). The relative error between the actual production data and the actual production data is within 2.5%, indicating that this prediction method is relatively reasonable and reliable.

[0076] Table 2 Comparison of Forecasted Production Composition and Actual Production Value of Deepwater Oilfield Block W in 2020

[0077]

[0078] Example 2

[0079] This disclosure also provides an electronic device, which includes:

[0080] At least one processor; and,

[0081] A memory that is communicatively connected to at least one processor; wherein,

[0082] The memory stores instructions that can be executed by at least one processor, which enables the at least one processor to perform the aforementioned deepwater oilfield development production prediction method.

[0083] An electronic device according to an embodiment of the present disclosure includes a memory and a processor.

[0084] This memory is used to store non-transitory computer-readable instructions. Specifically, the memory may include one or more computer program products, which may include various forms of computer-readable storage media, such as volatile memory and / or non-volatile memory. The volatile memory may, for example, include random access memory (RAM) and / or cache memory. The non-volatile memory may, for example, include read-only memory (ROM), hard disk, flash memory, etc.

[0085] The processor may be a central processing unit (CPU) or other form of processing unit with data processing capabilities and / or instruction execution capabilities, and may control other components in the electronic device to perform desired functions. In one embodiment of this disclosure, the processor is used to execute computer-readable instructions stored in the memory.

[0086] Those skilled in the art will understand that, in order to solve the technical problem of how to achieve a good user experience, this embodiment may also include well-known structures such as communication buses and interfaces, and these well-known structures should also be included within the protection scope of this disclosure.

[0087] Example 3

[0088] This disclosure provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing computer instructions for causing a computer to execute the aforementioned deepwater oilfield development production prediction method.

[0089] A computer-readable storage medium according to embodiments of the present disclosure stores non-transitory computer-readable instructions. When these non-transitory computer-readable instructions are executed by a processor, all or part of the steps of the methods described in the foregoing embodiments of the present disclosure are performed.

[0090] The aforementioned computer-readable storage media include, but are not limited to: optical storage media (e.g., CD-ROM and DVD), magneto-optical storage media (e.g., MO), magnetic storage media (e.g., magnetic tape or portable hard drive), media with built-in rewritable non-volatile memory (e.g., memory card), and media with built-in ROM (e.g., ROM cartridge).

[0091] Example 4

[0092] This disclosure provides a deepwater oilfield development production prediction device, which includes:

[0093] The old well natural yield prediction module is used to predict the natural yield of the old well in the predicted year;

[0094] The old well production potential prediction module is used to predict the production potential of old wells in the predicted year.

[0095] New well production prediction module, which is used to predict the production of new wells in the predicted year;

[0096] A planned production loss prediction module, which is used to predict the planned production loss in the predicted year;

[0097] An unplanned production loss prediction module is provided to predict unplanned production losses for a predicted year. The module includes a fitting unit and a correction unit. The fitting unit determines the development stage of the well area, and for well areas in the aging stage, determines a historical curve showing the relationship between the unplanned loss rate and time. By fitting the relationship between the unplanned production loss rate and production time in the aging stage curve, the unplanned loss rate for the predicted year is calculated. The correction unit uses a correction factor to correct the unplanned loss rate, determining the final unplanned loss rate for the predicted year, thereby determining the unplanned production loss for the predicted year.

[0098] The development production calculation module calculates the development production of the deepwater oilfield in the predicted year based on the predicted natural production of old wells in the predicted year, the production potential of old wells in the predicted year, the production of new wells in the predicted year, the planned production loss in the predicted year, and the unplanned production loss in the predicted year.

[0099] In this embodiment, the old well natural production prediction module includes an anomaly correction unit. The anomaly correction unit is used to find anomalies in historical production data, correct the anomalies in production data using production loss data, and use the corrected data as the natural production of the old well.

[0100] The various embodiments of the present invention have been described above. These descriptions are exemplary and not exhaustive, nor are they limited to the disclosed embodiments. Many modifications and variations will be apparent to those skilled in the art without departing from the scope and spirit of the described embodiments.

Claims

1. A method for predicting production in deepwater oilfield development, characterized in that, include: The factors affecting the predicted production year are determined, including: natural production of old wells, production potential of old wells, production of new wells, planned production loss, and unplanned production loss; the planned production loss refers to the production loss caused by planned maintenance of offshore engineering systems and working wells. For each forecast year, predict the natural production of old wells, the production potential of old wells, the production of new wells, the planned production loss and the unplanned production loss. The prediction of unplanned production loss includes: determining the development stage of the well area, which includes a break-in stage, a stabilization stage, and an aging stage; for well areas in the aging stage, first determining a historical curve of the relationship between the unplanned loss rate and time; by fitting the relationship between the unplanned production loss rate and production time in the aging stage curve, calculating the unplanned loss rate for the predicted year; and then correcting the unplanned loss rate using a correction factor to determine the final unplanned loss rate for the predicted year, thereby determining the unplanned production loss for the predicted year. The formula for calculating the unplanned production loss is as follows: B = A * λ * β(tr) Where B represents the unplanned production loss in the forecast year; A represents the total production in the forecast year; λ is the correction factor; and β(tr) is the final unplanned loss rate in the forecast year. Calculate deepwater oilfield development output using the following formula: Q(tr)=Qo(tr)+I(tr)+Qx(tr)-P(tr)-UP(tr) Wherein, Q(tr) is the predicted deepwater oilfield development output, Qo(tr) is the predicted natural output of old wells, I(tr) is the predicted production potential of old wells, Qx(tr) is the predicted output of new wells, P(tr) is the predicted planned output loss, and UP(tr) is the predicted unplanned output loss.

2. The method for predicting production in deepwater oilfield development according to claim 1, characterized in that, in, When predicting the natural production of an old well, first identify outliers in historical production data, then use production loss data to correct these outliers, and use the corrected data as the natural production of the old well.

3. The method for predicting production in deepwater oilfield development according to claim 1, characterized in that, Methods for predicting the production potential of old wells include: predicting the production potential of old wells in the current year and future years based on production enhancement measures and the year in which the measures are taken. The production enhancement measures include: well workover, water shut-off and profile control, and refined reservoir management.

4. The method for predicting production in deepwater oilfield development according to claim 1, characterized in that, Methods for predicting new well production include: calculating new well production based on the new well commissioning schedule, initial designed production, and production profile.

5. The method for predicting production in deepwater oilfield development according to claim 1, characterized in that, Methods for predicting the natural yield of old wells include: For old wells in the aging stage, a period of relatively stable production operation is selected. Based on the judgment criteria of Arps decline type, the regression production decline formula is used to calculate the natural production of the old well in the predicted year according to the formula.

6. An electronic device, characterized in that, The electronic device includes: At least one processor; and, A memory communicatively connected to the at least one processor; wherein, The memory stores instructions that can be executed by the at least one processor to enable the at least one processor to perform the deepwater oilfield development production prediction method according to any one of claims 1-5.

7. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium stores computer instructions for causing a computer to execute the deepwater oilfield development production prediction method according to any one of claims 1-5.

8. A deepwater oilfield development production prediction device, characterized in that, include: The old well natural yield prediction module is used to predict the natural yield of the old well in the predicted year; The old well production potential prediction module is used to predict the production potential of old wells in the predicted year. New well production prediction module, which is used to predict the production of new wells in the predicted year; The planned production loss prediction module is used to predict the planned production loss for the predicted year; the planned production loss refers to the production loss caused by planned maintenance of offshore engineering systems and working wells. An unplanned production loss prediction module is used to predict unplanned production losses in a predicted year. The module includes a fitting unit and a correction unit. The fitting unit determines the development stage of the well area, and for well areas in the aging stage, determines a historical curve showing the relationship between the unplanned loss rate and time. By fitting the relationship between the unplanned production loss rate and production time in the aging stage curve, the module calculates the unplanned loss rate for the predicted year. The correction unit corrects the unplanned loss rate using a correction factor to determine the final unplanned loss rate for the predicted year, thus determining the unplanned production loss for that year. The formula for calculating the unplanned production loss is: B = A * λ * β(tr) Where B represents the unplanned production loss in the forecast year; A represents the total production in the forecast year; λ is the correction factor; and β(tr) is the final unplanned loss rate in the forecast year. A development production calculation module is provided, which calculates the development production of the deepwater oilfield in the predicted year based on the predicted natural production of old wells, the predicted production potential of old wells in the predicted year, the predicted production of new wells in the predicted year, the planned production loss in the predicted year, and the unplanned production loss in the predicted year. The development production of the deepwater oilfield is calculated according to the following formula: Q(tr)=Qo(tr)+I(tr)+Qx(tr)-P(tr)-UP(tr) Wherein, Q(tr) is the predicted deepwater oilfield development output, Qo(tr) is the predicted natural output of old wells, I(tr) is the predicted production potential of old wells, Qx(tr) is the predicted output of new wells, P(tr) is the predicted planned output loss, and UP(tr) is the predicted unplanned output loss.

9. The deepwater oilfield development production prediction device according to claim 8, characterized in that, The old well natural production prediction module includes an anomaly correction unit, which is used to identify anomalies in historical production data, correct the anomalies using production loss data, and use the corrected data as the natural production of the old well.

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