A method and system for predicting hydrogen demand in power systems under carbon emission constraints

Abstract

This invention discloses a method and system for predicting hydrogen demand in a power system under carbon emission constraints, belonging to the field of carbon assessment technology. The system includes: collecting basic data related to predicting hydrogen demand in a power system; calculating the carbon emissions of the power system based on the basic data; estimating the green hydrogen demand of coal-fired power generation and gas-fired power generation under carbon reduction targets based on the basic data and carbon emissions; and predicting the hydrogen demand of the power system under carbon emission constraints based on the green hydrogen demand of coal-fired power generation and gas-fired power generation under the carbon reduction targets. This invention is easy to implement and can effectively predict hydrogen demand.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of carbon assessment technology, and more specifically, to a method and system for predicting hydrogen demand in a power system under carbon emission constraints. Background Technology

[0002] Hydrogen energy is an abundant, green, low-carbon, and widely applicable secondary energy source, gradually becoming one of the important carriers for global energy transition and development. Hydrogen energy is a crucial component of the future national energy system. Its role as a vital carrier for the large-scale, efficient utilization of renewable energy, along with its advantages in large-scale, long-term energy storage, should be fully leveraged to promote the optimized allocation of heterogeneous energy sources across regions and seasons. This includes promoting the integration of hydrogen, electricity, and thermal energy systems to foster a diversified and complementary modern energy supply system. Furthermore, the potential of hydrogen energy for cross-sectoral applications should be explored, and diversified applications should be guided according to local conditions to drive energy consumption transformation in transportation, industry, and other energy-consuming sectors, promote green development in high-energy-consuming and high-emission industries, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

[0003] Hydrogen energy has a wide range of applications in the power system. On the power supply side, hydrogen production by electricity can improve the absorption of new energy sources and smooth out fluctuations in new energy output. On the grid side, hydrogen energy storage can solve the problem of unbalanced power supply and demand over several consecutive days, improve the grid inertia support, peak shaving and frequency regulation, and stability control capabilities of grids with a high proportion of new energy sources, and enhance the grid's emergency response capabilities as a black start power source. On the load side, hydrogen production by electricity can improve demand-side response capabilities, and hydrogen-containing heterogeneous energy coupling systems can improve energy utilization efficiency.

[0004] Currently, regarding the application of hydrogen energy in power systems, domestic and international research institutions, universities, and enterprises have conducted considerable research on the fundamental principles and technical characteristics of key electro-hydrogen coupling technologies. However, the focus is largely concentrated on hydrogen production through water electrolysis and hydrogen storage and transportation. Some experts and scholars have also proposed application scenarios for hydrogen energy in power systems and conducted some preliminary analyses from the perspectives of simulation models and control strategies. However, research on the macroscopic hydrogen demand of power systems has not yet been carried out, and no publicly published methods for predicting the hydrogen demand of power systems have been found. This technological gap remains. Summary of the Invention

[0005] To address the above problems, this invention proposes a method for predicting hydrogen demand in power systems under carbon emission constraints, comprising:

[0006] Collect basic data related to predicting hydrogen demand in the power system;

[0007] Based on the aforementioned basic data, the carbon emissions of the power system were calculated.

[0008] Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target were estimated.

[0009] Based on the green hydrogen demand of coal-fired power generation and gas-fired power generation under the aforementioned carbon emission reduction targets, the hydrogen energy demand of the power system under carbon emission constraints is predicted.

[0010] Optional, basic data include: relevant data required for power system carbon emission estimation, data related to green hydrogen / green ammonia conversion, data related to coal-fired power generation with ammonia, and data related to natural gas-fired power generation with hydrogen.

[0011] Optional, the relevant data required for estimating carbon emissions from the power system include:

[0012] Data on carbon emission constraints of the power system for the target year, installed capacity and power generation of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation, carbon emission intensity of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation, and grid loss rate of the power grid.

[0013] Optional data related to green hydrogen / green ammonia conversion include:

[0014] Data on the mass conversion relationship between green hydrogen and green ammonia production.

[0015] Optional data related to coal-fired power generation with ammonia blending includes:

[0016] Data on the ammonia blending ratio in coal-fired power generation and the ammonia demand per unit of electricity under a given ammonia blending ratio.

[0017] Optional data related to natural gas-blended hydrogen power generation includes:

[0018] Data on the hydrogen blending ratio for natural gas-fired power generation and the hydrogen demand per unit of electricity under a given hydrogen blending ratio.

[0019] Optionally, based on the aforementioned basic data, the carbon emissions of the power system are calculated, including:

[0020] Based on the aforementioned basic data, the carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation, natural gas power generation, and power grid transmission and distribution in the target year are calculated.

[0021] The carbon emissions of the power system are calculated based on the carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation, natural gas power generation, and power grid transmission and distribution in the target year.

[0022] Optionally, based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power generation under the carbon reduction target are estimated, including:

[0023] Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the target year's coal-fired power emission reduction is calculated. Based on the target year's coal-fired power emission reduction, the green ammonia demand for coal-fired power carbon emission reduction in the target year is calculated. Based on the target year's green ammonia demand for coal-fired power carbon emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target is estimated.

[0024] Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the target year's gas-fired power emission reduction is calculated. Based on the target year's gas-fired power emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power carbon emission reduction in the target year is calculated. Based on the target year's green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power carbon emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power generation is estimated.

[0025] Optionally, the hydrogen demand of the power system under carbon emission constraints is the sum of the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission reduction target of coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission reduction target of gas-fired power generation.

[0026] Furthermore, this invention also proposes a system for predicting the hydrogen demand of a power system under carbon emission constraints, comprising:

[0027] The data acquisition unit is used to collect basic data related to predicting the hydrogen energy demand of the power system.

[0028] The first calculation unit is used to calculate the carbon emissions of the power system based on the basic data.

[0029] The second calculation unit is used to estimate the green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target based on the basic data and carbon emissions.

[0030] The third calculation unit is used to predict the hydrogen demand of the power system under carbon emission constraints based on the green hydrogen demand of coal-fired power generation and gas-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target.

[0031] Optional, basic data include: relevant data required for power system carbon emission estimation, data related to green hydrogen / green ammonia conversion, data related to coal-fired power generation with ammonia, and data related to natural gas-fired power generation with hydrogen.

[0032] Optional, the relevant data required for estimating carbon emissions from the power system include:

[0033] Data on carbon emission constraints of the power system for the target year, installed capacity and power generation of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation, carbon emission intensity of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation, and grid loss rate of the power grid.

[0034] Optional data related to green hydrogen / green ammonia conversion include:

[0035] Data on the mass conversion relationship between green hydrogen and green ammonia production.

[0036] Optional data related to coal-fired power generation with ammonia blending includes:

[0037] Data on the ammonia blending ratio in coal-fired power generation and the ammonia demand per unit of electricity under a given ammonia blending ratio.

[0038] Optional data related to natural gas-blended hydrogen power generation includes:

[0039] Data on the hydrogen blending ratio for natural gas-fired power generation and the hydrogen demand per unit of electricity under a given hydrogen blending ratio.

[0040] Optionally, based on the aforementioned basic data, the carbon emissions of the power system are calculated, including:

[0041] Based on the aforementioned basic data, the carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation, natural gas power generation, and power grid transmission and distribution in the target year are calculated.

[0042] The carbon emissions of the power system are calculated based on the carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation, natural gas power generation, and power grid transmission and distribution in the target year.

[0043] Optionally, based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power generation under the carbon reduction target are estimated, including:

[0044] Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the target year's coal-fired power emission reduction is calculated. Based on the target year's coal-fired power emission reduction, the green ammonia demand for coal-fired power carbon emission reduction in the target year is calculated. Based on the target year's green ammonia demand for coal-fired power carbon emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target is estimated.

[0045] Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the target year's gas-fired power emission reduction is calculated. Based on the target year's gas-fired power emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power carbon emission reduction in the target year is calculated. Based on the target year's green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power carbon emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power generation is estimated.

[0046] Optionally, the hydrogen demand of the power system under carbon emission constraints is the sum of the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission reduction target of coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission reduction target of gas-fired power generation.

[0047] In another aspect, the present invention also provides a computing device, comprising: one or more processors;

[0048] A processor is used to execute one or more programs;

[0049] When the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the method described above is implemented.

[0050] In another aspect, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed, implements the method described above.

[0051] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows:

[0052] This invention provides a method for predicting hydrogen demand in a power system under carbon emission constraints, comprising: collecting basic data related to predicting hydrogen demand in the power system; calculating the carbon emissions of the power system based on the basic data; estimating the green hydrogen demand of coal-fired power generation and gas-fired power generation under carbon emission reduction targets based on the basic data and carbon emissions; and predicting the hydrogen demand of the power system under carbon emission constraints based on the green hydrogen demand of coal-fired power generation and gas-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction targets. This invention is easy to implement and can effectively predict hydrogen demand. Attached Figure Description

[0053] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the method of the present invention;

[0054] Figure 2 This is a structural diagram of the system of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0055] Exemplary embodiments of the invention will now be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, the invention may be embodied in many different forms and is not limited to the embodiments described herein. These embodiments are provided to fully and completely disclose the invention and to fully convey its scope to those skilled in the art. The terminology used in the exemplary embodiments illustrated in the drawings is not intended to limit the invention. In the drawings, the same units / elements are referred to by the same reference numerals.

[0056] Unless otherwise stated, the terms used herein (including technical terms) have their common meaning as understood by one of ordinary skill in the art. Furthermore, it is understood that terms defined in commonly used dictionaries should be understood to have a meaning consistent with the context of their relevant field, and not to be interpreted as having an idealized or overly formal meaning.

[0057] Example 1:

[0058] This invention proposes a method for predicting hydrogen demand in power systems under carbon emission constraints, such as... Figure 1 As shown, it includes:

[0059] Step 1: Collect basic data related to predicting hydrogen demand in the power system;

[0060] Step 2: Based on the aforementioned basic data, calculate the carbon emissions of the power system;

[0061] Step 3: Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, estimate the green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target.

[0062] Step 4: Based on the green hydrogen demand of coal-fired power generation and gas-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target, predict the hydrogen energy demand of the power system under carbon emission constraints.

[0063] The basic data includes: relevant data for estimating carbon emissions from the power system, relevant data for green hydrogen / green ammonia conversion, relevant data for coal-fired power generation with ammonia, and relevant data for natural gas-fired power generation with hydrogen.

[0064] The relevant data required for estimating carbon emissions from the power system include:

[0065] Data on carbon emission constraints of the power system for the target year, installed capacity and power generation of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation, carbon emission intensity of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation, and grid loss rate of the power grid.

[0066] The data related to green hydrogen / green ammonia conversion includes:

[0067] Data on the mass conversion relationship between green hydrogen and green ammonia production.

[0068] Among them, the relevant data on coal-fired power generation with ammonia blending includes:

[0069] Data on the ammonia blending ratio in coal-fired power generation and the ammonia demand per unit of electricity under a given ammonia blending ratio.

[0070] Among them, data related to natural gas-blended hydrogen power generation includes:

[0071] Data on the hydrogen blending ratio for natural gas-fired power generation and the hydrogen demand per unit of electricity under a given hydrogen blending ratio.

[0072] Based on the aforementioned basic data, the carbon emissions of the power system are calculated, including:

[0073] Based on the aforementioned basic data, the carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation, natural gas power generation, and power grid transmission and distribution in the target year are calculated.

[0074] The carbon emissions of the power system are calculated based on the carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation, natural gas power generation, and power grid transmission and distribution in the target year.

[0075] Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission reduction target for coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand of the power system under carbon emission constraints are estimated, including:

[0076] Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the target year's coal-fired power emission reduction is calculated. Based on the target year's coal-fired power emission reduction, the green ammonia demand for coal-fired power carbon emission reduction in the target year is calculated. Based on the target year's green ammonia demand for coal-fired power carbon emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the target of coal-fired power carbon emission reduction is estimated.

[0077] Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the target year's gas-fired power emission reduction is calculated. Based on the target year's gas-fired power emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power carbon emission reduction in the target year is calculated. Based on the target year's green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power carbon emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the target carbon emission reduction of gas-fired power generation is estimated.

[0078] This includes the sum of the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission reduction target for coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission reduction target for gas-fired power generation.

[0079] The present invention will be further described below with reference to embodiments:

[0080] The implementation steps include:

[0081] Step 1: Collection of basic data required for hydrogen demand forecasting in the power system;

[0082] Step 2: Calculation of carbon emissions from the power system;

[0083] Step 3: Estimation of green hydrogen demand under the carbon emission reduction target for coal-fired power generation;

[0084] Step 4: Estimation of green hydrogen demand under the carbon emission reduction target for natural gas power generation;

[0085] Step 5: Estimation of green hydrogen demand in the power system under carbon emission constraints.

[0086] Further, step 1 includes:

[0087] Step 1-1: Investigate the relevant data required for power system carbon emission estimation, including: power system carbon emission constraints for the target year, installed capacity and power generation of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation, carbon emission intensity of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation, and grid loss rate, etc.

[0088] Steps 1-2: Research relevant data on the conversion of green hydrogen and green ammonia, including: the conversion process of green hydrogen to green ammonia, the mass conversion relationship of green hydrogen to green ammonia, etc.

[0089] Steps 1-3: Investigate relevant data on coal-fired power generation with ammonia blending, including: the ammonia blending ratio in coal-fired power generation with ammonia blending, and the ammonia demand per unit of electricity under a determined ammonia blending ratio;

[0090] Steps 1-4: Research relevant data on natural gas-blended hydrogen power generation, including: the hydrogen blending ratio of natural gas-blended hydrogen power generation, and the hydrogen demand per unit of electricity under a determined blending ratio;

[0091] Further, step 2 includes:

[0092] Step 2-1: Based on the relevant data information of coal-fired power generation determined in Step 1-1, calculate the carbon emissions of coal-fired power generation in the power system for the target year. The specific calculation method is shown in Equation (1):

[0093] E gd·coal =S gd·coal W gd·coal (1)

[0094] In the formula, E gd·coal This represents the carbon dioxide emissions generated by coal-fired power units during the statistical period, expressed in tons of carbon dioxide (tCO2); S gd·coal This indicates the carbon emission intensity of coal-fired power generation, which is the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by each 1 MW·h of electricity supplied by a coal-fired power unit, expressed in tons of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour (tCO2 / MW·h); W gd·coal This indicates the amount of electricity supplied by coal-fired power plants, expressed in megawatt-hours (MW·h).

[0095] Step 2-2: Based on the relevant data information on natural gas power generation determined in Step 1-1, calculate the carbon emissions of natural gas power generation in the power system for the target year. The specific calculation method is shown in Equation (2):

[0096] E gd·gas =S gd·gas W gd·gas (2)

[0097] In the formula, E gd·gas This represents the carbon dioxide emissions generated by natural gas generating units during the statistical period, expressed in tons of carbon dioxide (tCO2); S gd·gas This indicates the carbon emission intensity of gas-fired power generation, specifically the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by a natural gas unit for every 1 MW·h of electricity supplied, expressed in tons of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour (tCO2 / MW·h). gd·gas This indicates the amount of electricity supplied by gas-fired power plants, measured in megawatt-hours (MW·h).

[0098] Step 2-3: Based on the relevant data information of power grid transmission and distribution determined in Step 1-1, calculate the carbon emissions of power system power grid transmission and distribution in the target year. The specific calculation method is shown in Equation (3):

[0099] E网损 =AD 网损 ×EF 电网 ×GWP CO2 (3)

[0100] In the formula, E 网损 This indicates emissions caused by transmission and distribution losses, expressed in tons of carbon dioxide (tCO2); AD 网损 This represents the power loss during transmission and distribution, expressed in megawatt-hours (MW·h); EF 电网 The regional power grid average emission factor is expressed in tons of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour (tCO2 / MW·h), and can be selected based on the carbon dioxide emission factor calculation results published by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment; GWP CO2 The global warming potential of carbon dioxide is represented by 1.

[0101] Step 2-4: Based on the calculation results of Step 2-1, Step 2-2, and Step 2-3, estimate the carbon emissions of the power system in the target year. The specific calculation method is shown in Equation (4):

[0102] E annual =E gd·coal +E gd·gas +E 网损 (4)

[0103] In the formula, E annual This represents the carbon emissions of the power system in the target year, expressed in tons of carbon dioxide (tCO2).

[0104] Further, step 3 includes:

[0105] Step 3-1: Based on the relevant data information such as the target year's power system carbon emission constraints and coal-fired power carbon emission reduction ratio determined in Step 1-1, calculate the target year's coal-fired power emission reduction. The specific calculation method is shown in Equation (5):

[0106] △E gd·coal =(E annual -E' annual )·k gd·coal (5)

[0107] In the formula, △E gd·coal E' represents the target annual carbon emission reduction from coal-fired power generation, expressed in tons of carbon dioxide (tCO2). annual This represents the target year's carbon emission constraints for the power system, expressed in tons of carbon dioxide (tCO2); k gd·coal This indicates the proportion of carbon dioxide emission reductions from coal-fired power plants in the target year's carbon dioxide emission reduction target.

[0108] Step 3-2: Based on the relevant data information of coal-fired power generation with ammonia blending determined in Step 1-3 and the coal-fired power emission reduction determined in Step 3-1, calculate the green ammonia demand for coal-fired power carbon emission reduction in the target year. The specific calculation method is shown in Equation (6):

[0109] M ammonia =(△E) gd·coal / E gd·coal )·W gd·coal / L ammonia (6)

[0110] In the formula, M ammonia L represents the total amount of green ammonia required to achieve the target carbon emission reduction for coal-fired power plants in the target year, expressed in tons (t). ammonia This indicates the amount of green ammonia consumed per kilowatt-hour, which is the mass of green ammonia required for a coal-fired power unit to supply 1 MW·h of electricity when the unit generates electricity by adding ammonia according to its calorific value. The unit is tons per megawatt-hour (t / MW·h).

[0111] Step 3-3: Based on the mass conversion data for green ammonia production from green hydrogen determined in Step 1-2, calculate the green hydrogen demand for carbon emission reduction from coal-fired power plants in the target year. The specific calculation method is shown in Equation (7):

[0112] M hydrogen·coal =M ammonia / f hydro-ammo (8)

[0113] In the formula, M hydrogen·coal This represents the total amount of green hydrogen required to achieve the target carbon emission reduction for coal-fired power generation in the target year, expressed in tons (t); f hydro-ammo This represents the conversion coefficient from green hydrogen to green ammonia, which is the mass of green ammonia that can be produced from one ton of green hydrogen.

[0114] Further, step 4 includes:

[0115] Step 4-1: Based on the relevant data information such as the target year's power system carbon emission constraints and gas-fired power carbon emission reduction ratio determined in Step 1-1, calculate the target year's gas-fired power emission reduction. The specific calculation method is shown in Equation (8):

[0116] △E gd·gas =(E annual -E' annual )·k gd·gas (8)

[0117] In the formula, △E gd·gas This represents the target annual carbon emission reduction from gas-fired power generation, expressed in tons of carbon dioxide (tCO2); k gd·gas This indicates the proportion of carbon dioxide emission reductions from gas-fired power generation within the target year's total carbon dioxide emission reductions.

[0118] Step 4-2: Based on the relevant data information of natural gas-blended hydrogen power generation determined in Step 1-4 and the emission reduction of gas power determined in Step 4-1, calculate the green hydrogen demand for carbon emission reduction of gas power in the target year. The specific calculation method is shown in Equation (9):

[0119] V hydrogen·gas =(△E) gd·gas / E gd·gas )·W gd·gas / L hydrogen (9)

[0120] In the formula, V hydrogen·gas This represents the total volume of green hydrogen required to achieve the carbon emission reduction target for gas-fired power generation in the target year, expressed in cubic meters (m³). 3 );L hydrogen This refers to the amount of green hydrogen consumed per kilowatt-hour (MWh) of electricity generated by a natural gas power plant when hydrogen is blended with the natural gas at a volume ratio. The unit is cubic meters per megawatt-hour (m³). 3 / MW·h).

[0121] Step 4-3: Calculate the mass of green hydrogen according to the volume requirement determined in Step 4-2. The specific calculation method is shown in Equation (10):

[0122] M hydrogen·gas =V hydrogen·gas ·ρ hydrogen (10)

[0123] In the formula, M hydrogen·gas ρ represents the total amount of green hydrogen required to achieve the carbon emission reduction target for gas-fired power generation in the target year, expressed in tons (t); hydrogen This indicates the density of hydrogen gas, with units of cubic meters (m³). 3 ).

[0124] Further, step 5 includes:

[0125] Step 5-1: Based on the green hydrogen demand for carbon emission reduction from coal-fired and gas-fired power plants in the target year determined in Steps 3-3 and 4-3, calculate the green hydrogen demand for carbon emission reduction from the power system in the target year. The specific calculation method is shown in Equation (11):

[0126] M hydrogen =M hydrogen·coal +M hydrogen·gas (11)

[0127] In the formula, M hydrogen This represents the total amount of green hydrogen required to achieve carbon emission reduction in the power system by implementing coal-fired power plant ammonia blending and natural gas-fired power plant hydrogen blending from the power source side, expressed in tons (t).

[0128] The beneficial effects of the present invention include:

[0129] To address the difficulty in quantifying the demand for hydrogen energy in the power system, a feasible and easy-to-implement solution is proposed from the perspective of hydrogen energy replacing coal and natural gas on the power supply side.

[0130] Currently, the application of hydrogen energy in the power system is in the top-level design and pilot demonstration stage. It is possible to conduct an analysis of the application potential of hydrogen energy in the power system based on the hydrogen energy demand forecasting method of the power system under carbon emission constraints. This can not only help macro policy researchers to look forward to the macro development prospects of hydrogen energy application in the power system, but also provide a reference for power system planners to study the future development pattern of the power system.

[0131] Example 2:

[0132] This invention also proposes a system 200 for predicting the hydrogen demand of a power system under carbon emission constraints, such as... Figure 2 As shown, it includes:

[0133] Data acquisition unit 201 is used to collect basic data related to predicting the hydrogen energy demand of the power system;

[0134] The first calculation unit 202 is used to calculate the carbon emissions of the power system based on the basic data;

[0135] The second calculation unit 203 is used to estimate the green hydrogen demand of coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand of gas-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target based on the basic data and carbon emissions.

[0136] The third calculation unit 204 is used to predict the hydrogen energy demand of the power system under carbon emission constraints based on the green hydrogen demand of coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand of gas-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target.

[0137] The basic data includes: relevant data for estimating carbon emissions from the power system, relevant data for green hydrogen / green ammonia conversion, relevant data for coal-fired power generation with ammonia, and relevant data for natural gas-fired power generation with hydrogen.

[0138] The relevant data required for estimating carbon emissions from the power system include:

[0139] Data on carbon emission constraints of the power system for the target year, installed capacity and power generation of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation, carbon emission intensity of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation, and grid loss rate of the power grid.

[0140] The data related to green hydrogen / green ammonia conversion includes:

[0141] Data on the mass conversion relationship between green hydrogen and green ammonia production.

[0142] Among them, the relevant data on coal-fired power generation with ammonia blending includes:

[0143] Data on the ammonia blending ratio in coal-fired power generation and the ammonia demand per unit of electricity under a given ammonia blending ratio.

[0144] Among them, data related to natural gas-blended hydrogen power generation includes:

[0145] Data on the hydrogen blending ratio for natural gas-fired power generation and the hydrogen demand per unit of electricity under a given hydrogen blending ratio.

[0146] Based on the aforementioned basic data, the carbon emissions of the power system are calculated, including:

[0147] Based on the aforementioned basic data, the carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation, natural gas power generation, and power grid transmission and distribution in the target year are calculated.

[0148] The carbon emissions of the power system are calculated based on the carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation, natural gas power generation, and power grid transmission and distribution in the target year.

[0149] Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target are estimated, including:

[0150] Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the target year's coal-fired power emission reduction is calculated. Based on the target year's coal-fired power emission reduction, the green ammonia demand for coal-fired power carbon emission reduction in the target year is calculated. Based on the target year's green ammonia demand for coal-fired power carbon emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target is estimated.

[0151] Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the target year's gas-fired power emission reduction is calculated. Based on the target year's gas-fired power emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power carbon emission reduction in the target year is calculated. Based on the target year's green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power carbon emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power generation is estimated.

[0152] Among them, the hydrogen demand of the power system under carbon emission constraints is the sum of the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission reduction target of coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission reduction target of gas-fired power generation.

[0153] This invention is easy to implement and can effectively predict hydrogen energy demand.

[0154] Example 3:

[0155] Based on the same inventive concept, this invention also provides a computer device, which includes a processor and a memory. The memory stores a computer program, which includes program instructions. The processor executes the program instructions stored in the computer storage medium. The processor may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSPs), application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. It is the computing and control core of the terminal, suitable for implementing one or more instructions, specifically suitable for loading and executing one or more instructions in the computer storage medium to implement corresponding method flows or corresponding functions, thereby implementing the steps of the methods in the above embodiments.

[0156] Example 4:

[0157] Based on the same inventive concept, this invention also provides a storage medium, specifically a computer-readable storage medium (Memory), which is a memory device in a computer device used to store programs and data. It is understood that the computer-readable storage medium here can include both the built-in storage medium in the computer device and extended storage media supported by the computer device. The computer-readable storage medium provides storage space that stores the terminal's operating system. Furthermore, this storage space also stores one or more instructions suitable for loading and execution by a processor. These instructions can be one or more computer programs (including program code). It should be noted that the computer-readable storage medium here can be high-speed RAM or non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk storage device. The processor can load and execute one or more instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium to implement the steps of the method in the above embodiments.

[0158] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of the present invention can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention can take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code. The solutions in the embodiments of the present invention can be implemented using various computer languages, such as the object-oriented programming language Java and the interpreted scripting language JavaScript.

[0159] This invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0160] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0161] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0162] Although the preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described, those skilled in the art may make additional changes and modifications to these embodiments once they have learned the basic creative concept. Therefore, the appended claims are intended to be interpreted as including the preferred embodiments and all changes and modifications that fall within the scope of the present invention.

[0163] Obviously, those skilled in the art may make various changes and modifications to the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Thus, if such changes and modifications fall within the scope of the claims and their equivalents, the present invention is intended to include such changes and modifications.

Claims

1. A method for predicting hydrogen demand in a power system under carbon emission constraints, characterized in that, The method includes: Collect basic data related to predicting hydrogen demand in the power system; Based on the aforementioned basic data, the carbon emissions of the power system were calculated. Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target were estimated. Based on the green hydrogen demand of coal-fired power generation and gas-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target, the hydrogen energy demand of the power system under carbon emission constraints is predicted. The basic data includes: relevant data required for estimating carbon emissions from the power system, relevant data for green hydrogen / green ammonia conversion, relevant data for coal-fired power generation with ammonia blending, and relevant data for natural gas-fired power generation with hydrogen blending; The estimation of green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation and gas-fired power generation under the carbon reduction target, based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, includes: Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the target year's coal-fired power emission reduction is calculated. Based on the target year's coal-fired power emission reduction, the green ammonia demand for coal-fired power carbon emission reduction in the target year is calculated. Based on the target year's green ammonia demand for coal-fired power carbon emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target is estimated. Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the target year's gas-fired power emission reduction is calculated. Based on the target year's gas-fired power emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power carbon emission reduction in the target year is calculated. Based on the target year's green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power carbon emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power generation is estimated. The hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission constraints is the sum of the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission reduction target of coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission reduction target of gas-fired power generation.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The relevant data required for estimating carbon emissions from the power system include: Data on carbon emission constraints of the power system for the target year, installed capacity and power generation of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation, carbon emission intensity of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation, and grid loss rate of the power grid.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The green hydrogen / green ammonia conversion related data includes: Data on the mass conversion relationship between green hydrogen and green ammonia production.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The relevant data for coal-fired power generation with ammonia blending includes: Data on the ammonia blending ratio in coal-fired power generation and the ammonia demand per unit of electricity under a given ammonia blending ratio.

5. The method according to claim 1, wherein The data related to natural gas-hydrogen blending power generation includes: Data on the hydrogen blending ratio for natural gas-fired power generation and the hydrogen demand per unit of electricity under a given hydrogen blending ratio.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The calculation of the carbon emissions of the power system based on the aforementioned basic data includes: Based on the aforementioned basic data, the carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation, natural gas power generation, and power grid transmission and distribution in the target year are calculated. The carbon emissions of the power system are calculated based on the carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation, natural gas power generation, and power grid transmission and distribution in the target year.

7. A system for predicting hydrogen demand in a power system under carbon emission constraints, characterized in that, The system includes: The data acquisition unit is used to collect basic data related to predicting the hydrogen energy demand of the power system. The first calculation unit is used to calculate the carbon emissions of the power system based on the basic data. The second calculation unit is used to estimate the green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target based on the basic data and carbon emissions. The third calculation unit is used to predict the hydrogen demand of the power system under carbon emission constraints based on the green hydrogen demand of coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand of gas-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target. The basic data includes: relevant data required for estimating carbon emissions from the power system, relevant data for green hydrogen / green ammonia conversion, relevant data for coal-fired power generation with ammonia blending, and relevant data for natural gas-fired power generation with hydrogen blending; The estimation of green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation and gas-fired power generation under the carbon reduction target, based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, includes: Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the target year's coal-fired power emission reduction is calculated. Based on the target year's coal-fired power emission reduction, the green ammonia demand for coal-fired power carbon emission reduction in the target year is calculated. Based on the target year's green ammonia demand for coal-fired power carbon emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for coal-fired power generation under the carbon emission reduction target is estimated. Based on the aforementioned basic data and carbon emissions, the target year's gas-fired power emission reduction is calculated. Based on the target year's gas-fired power emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power carbon emission reduction in the target year is calculated. Based on the target year's green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power carbon emission reduction, the green hydrogen demand for gas-fired power generation is estimated. The hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission constraints is the sum of the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission reduction target of coal-fired power generation and the green hydrogen demand of the power system under the carbon emission reduction target of gas-fired power generation.

8. The system according to claim 7, characterized in that, The relevant data required for estimating carbon emissions from the power system include: Data on carbon emission constraints of the power system for the target year, installed capacity and power generation of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation, carbon emission intensity of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation, and grid loss rate of the power grid.

9. The system according to claim 7, characterized in that, The green hydrogen / green ammonia conversion related data includes: Data on the mass conversion relationship between green hydrogen and green ammonia production.

10. The system according to claim 7, characterized in that, The relevant data for coal-fired power generation with ammonia blending includes: Data on the ammonia blending ratio in coal-fired power generation and the ammonia demand per unit of electricity under a given ammonia blending ratio.

11. The system according to claim 7, characterized in that, The data related to natural gas-hydrogen blending power generation includes: Data on the hydrogen blending ratio for natural gas-fired power generation and the hydrogen demand per unit of electricity under a given blending ratio.

12. The system according to claim 7, characterized in that, The calculation of the carbon emissions of the power system based on the aforementioned basic data includes: Based on the aforementioned basic data, the carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation, natural gas power generation, and power grid transmission and distribution in the target year are calculated. The carbon emissions of the power system are calculated based on the carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation, natural gas power generation, and power grid transmission and distribution in the target year.

13. A computer device, characterized in that, include: One or more processors; A processor is used to execute one or more programs; When the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the method described in any one of claims 1-6 is implemented.

14. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, It contains a computer program, which, when executed, implements the method as described in any one of claims 1-6.

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