A method and system for evaluating equipment battle damage status level probability

Abstract

The present invention provides a method and system for evaluating the probability of equipment battle damage status level, which relates to the technical field of reliability evaluation, including: establishing a strike failure grid model according to the components in the target device and their connection relationships; obtaining the first probability of each node in the strike failure grid model being hit and failing once, and determining the second probability of each connection being hit and failing once according to each first probability; combining the first probabilities and the second probabilities corresponding to the single hit, determining the state transfer matrix after a preset number of hits, the state transfer matrix is ​​characterized as a set of probabilities that the strike failure grid model changes from one failure state to another failure state; evaluating the battle damage state of the target device after the preset number of hits according to the state transfer matrix. The present invention solves the problems of low granularity and missing details in the prior art when conducting battle damage evaluation on ship devices.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of reliability assessment, and in particular to a method and system for assessing the probability of equipment battle damage status level. Background Art

[0002] When ships are performing combat missions, they are often unable to complete their missions due to damage caused by attacks, and shipboard equipment may also be directly or indirectly affected and lose their working ability. In particular, the power system is responsible for providing power, electricity and other energy for the entire ship. Once the power of the ship is lost, its maneuverability and survivability will be out of the question, and the consequences will be disastrous. In order to scientifically formulate emergency response plans for battle damage, reasonably predict the demand for emergency response spare parts in wartime, and improve the battlefield survivability and vitality of ships, it is of great significance to study the battle damage level probability assessment method and evaluate the battle damage level probability of key equipment in the power system.

[0003] At present, the commonly used methods for equipment battlefield damage analysis and assessment include expert scoring method, decision tree method, hierarchical analysis method, neural network method and Bayesian network method. In the prior art, there is a model for evaluating the vitality of ship power systems under multiple weapon attacks and multiple hits based on random simulation. There is also a failure probability calculation method for the two-dimensional distribution of three-dimensional damage of ship systems based on the Monte Carlo random simulation method, and calculations have been performed on real ships. There is also a battle damage analysis of the ship's main power equipment based on the Bayesian network method, and the battle damage location reasoning is realized through the Bayesian network.

[0004] With the high-tech development of weapons and equipment and the complexity of battlefield environment, the timeliness and effectiveness of the repair and disposal of damaged equipment are of great significance to the ships' completion of combat missions.

[0005] However, the above-mentioned previous studies focused on the battle damage assessment of in-service components, and the research on the probability assessment of battle damage levels in the design stage is relatively scarce. The coupling relationship between components will lead to problems such as low granularity and lack of details when conducting battle damage assessment of ship equipment. Summary of the invention

[0006] In view of the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a method and system for evaluating the probability of equipment damage status level, which solves the problem that there is a relative lack of research on the probability evaluation of damage levels in the design stage in the prior art, resulting in problems such as low granularity and missing details when conducting damage assessment on ship equipment.

[0007] At least one embodiment of the present invention provides a method for evaluating equipment battle damage status level probability, comprising:

[0008] According to the components in the target device and their connection relationships, a strike failure grid model is established, wherein the failure grid model includes a plurality of nodes, each node corresponds to a component, and the connection lines between the nodes are determined according to the preset connection relationships between the components;

[0009] Obtaining a first probability that each of the nodes in the strike failure grid model is hit once and fails, and determining a second probability that each of the links is hit once and fails according to each of the first probabilities;

[0010] Combining the first probabilities and the second probabilities corresponding to a single hit, determining a state transfer matrix after a preset number of hits, wherein the state transfer matrix is ​​characterized as a set of probabilities of the hit failure grid model changing from one failure state to another failure state;

[0011] According to the state transfer matrix, the damage state of the target device after a preset number of strikes is evaluated.

[0012] The technical solution disclosed in the present invention has at least the following beneficial effects:

[0013] The present invention establishes a strike failure grid model and obtains a state transfer matrix by solving it to determine the probability and related curve of the damage state level of the ship power system under a preset strike, and thereby evaluates the damage state of the target device after the preset strike.

[0014] In the above process, the main components of the ship's power system are taken as important nodes, and the connections between components are taken as lines. By considering the failure of the lines, the coupling effect caused by the failure of the components is avoided, making the evaluation results more granular and accurate.

[0015] At least one embodiment of the present invention further provides a system for evaluating equipment battle damage status level probability, comprising:

[0016] A grid model generation module, which establishes a strike failure grid model according to the components in the target device and their connection relationships, wherein the failure grid model includes a plurality of nodes, each node corresponds to a component, and the connection between the nodes is determined according to the preset connection relationship between the components;

[0017] A failure probability determination module is configured to obtain a first probability that each node in the strike failure grid model is hit once and fails, and determine a second probability that each connection is hit once and fails according to each of the first probabilities;

[0018] A matrix calculation module, combining the first probabilities and the second probabilities corresponding to a single hit, to determine a state transfer matrix after a preset number of hits, wherein the state transfer matrix is ​​characterized as a set of probabilities that the hit failure grid model changes from one failure state to another failure state;

[0019] An evaluation module evaluates the damage state of the target device after a preset number of strikes based on the state transfer matrix.

[0020] At least one embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, wherein instructions are stored in the computer-readable storage medium. When the instructions are executed on a terminal device, the terminal device executes the steps of a method for probabilistically assessing the level of equipment damage status as described above.

[0021] At least one embodiment of the present invention also provides an electronic device, including a memory, a processor, and a program stored in the memory and running on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the program, the steps of the above-mentioned method for probability assessment of equipment battle damage status level are implemented. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0022] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a flow chart of a method for evaluating the probability of equipment battle damage status level provided by the present invention;

[0023] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the connection relationship between the components in the supply system;

[0024] Figure 3 It is the distribution diagram of each component in the supply system in the unit grid;

[0025] Figure 4 This is a grid model diagram for the failure of the supply system;

[0026] Figure 5 A flow chart for solving the transition probability of transferring from a first failure state to a second failure state;

[0027] Figure 6 The basic functional structure diagram of the steam turbine generator described in Example 2;

[0028] Figure 7 A grid model diagram of a steam turbine generator set that fails in an impact according to Example 2;

[0029] Figure 8 A schematic diagram of the connection relationship of the components of the steam turbine generator set described in Example 3;

[0030] Fig. 9 A grid model diagram of a blow failure established for the steam turbine generator set described in Example 3;

[0031] Fig.10 is the probability distribution of the failure state of each group of connections after multiple attacks in Example 3;

[0032] Fig.11The probability distribution and evolution of equipment damage status level under multiple attacks in Example 3;

[0033] Fig.12 The probability distribution and evolution of equipment damage status level in Example 3, when the connection 5 is in a "light" damage state and then subjected to multiple attacks;

[0034] Fig.13 is the contribution of each connection in Example 3;

[0035] Fig.14 A schematic diagram of the flow of a probability assessment system for equipment battle damage status level provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0036] The principles and features of the present invention are described below. The examples given are only used to explain the present invention and are not used to limit the scope of the present invention.

[0037] Furthermore, those skilled in the art may combine and associate different embodiments or examples and features of different embodiments or examples described in this specification without mutual contradiction.

[0038] The present invention is explained by taking a ship power system as an example. Since the ship power system is large and complex, the components are closely connected and influence each other. When considering the failure of a component, the negative impact brought by the failure of the component should be further taken into account.

[0039] The present invention provides a method for evaluating the probability of equipment damage status level. Figure 1 The embodiment 1 shown is used as an example for schematic description, including:

[0040] According to the components in the target device and their connection relationships, a strike failure grid model is established, wherein the failure grid model includes a plurality of nodes, each node corresponds to a component, and the connection lines between the nodes are determined according to the preset connection relationships between the components;

[0041] Obtaining a first probability of each node in the strike failure grid model being hit once and failing, and determining a second probability of each link being hit once and failing according to each first probability;

[0042] Combining the first probabilities and the second probabilities corresponding to a single hit, determining a state transfer matrix after a preset number of hits, wherein the state transfer matrix is ​​characterized as a set of probabilities that the hit failure grid model changes from one failure state to another failure state;

[0043] According to the state transfer matrix, the damage state of the target device after the preset strike is evaluated.

[0044] Specifically, the target device in this embodiment is a ship, such as Figure 2 The supply system shown in FIG. 1 is used as an example for schematic illustration. In the above supply system, four components are included, namely: water supply equipment A, water supply valve B, device C requiring water cooling, and device D generating steam, wherein the water supply device A is connected to the water supply valve B, and the water supply valve B is respectively connected to the device C requiring water cooling and the device D generating steam;

[0045] Determine the connection between each node according to the preset connection relationship between each component. Figure 3 As shown, in Figure 3 In the figure, water supply equipment A corresponds to node A, water supply valve B corresponds to node B, device C requiring water cooling corresponds to node C, and device D generating steam corresponds to node D. The above preset connection relationship means that water supply equipment A is connected to water supply valve B and provides water supply, and water supply valve B is respectively connected to device C requiring water cooling and device D generating steam to control the water supply to device C requiring water cooling and device D generating steam.

[0046] The connection between the water supply equipment A, the water supply valve B, the device C requiring water cooling and the device D generating steam is used as the connection between the nodes, that is, node A is connected to node B as connection 1, node B is connected to node C as connection 2, and node B is connected to node C as connection 3, and the following is obtained: Figure 4 The strike failure grid model corresponding to the above supply system is shown;

[0047] The present invention regards the main components of the ship power system as important nodes, and the connections between the components as lines, and considers the failure of the lines to avoid the coupling effect caused by the failure of the components.

[0048] The Markov process theory is applied to solve the state transfer matrix and classify the damage status of the main functions involved in the connection. The probability and related curve of the damage status level of the ship power system under the preset strikes are obtained, and the damage status of the target device after the preset strikes is evaluated.

[0049] More preferably, obtaining the first probability of each node in the strike failure grid model being hit and failing once, and determining the second probability of each link being hit and failing once according to each first probability, including:

[0050] The first probability of each node being hit and failing in the hit failure grid model is determined by using prior data;

[0051] The sum of the first probabilities of all nodes connected to each link is used as the second probability of the corresponding link being hit and failing once.

[0052] Specifically, according to the probability f of each component being hit in the prior informationhit , where the prior information refers to historical real data information. Based on multiple historical real data, the probability of each component being hit is combined. This combination can be implemented by algorithms such as average value or variance, and the probability of each component being hit applied to this system can be obtained. hit Of course, the probability of each component being hit is f hit It can also be determined by the occupied area or space volume of the corresponding component; by combining the probability of failure of each component when it is hit, the probability of failure of each component when it is hit is determined according to the hitting method. This embodiment does not discuss the hitting method because it can be considered that the probability is 1, that is, the equipment fails immediately after being hit. The probability of each component being hit is f hit is equal to the first probability of the component being hit and failing;

[0053] The second probability of a connection being hit and failing is defined as any node on the connection being hit and failing, that is:

[0054]

[0055] Among them, P 连线 represents the second probability of the connection being hit and failing, P 节点i represents the first probability of node i being hit and failing;

[0056] Assume that each node fails immediately after being hit, and the probability of each node being hit is the same, that is, P 节点 =1 / 16.

[0057] Then the second probability of link 1 being hit and failing is the sum of the first probabilities of nodes A and B being hit and failing, that is, 1 / 8.

[0058] Specifically, combining the first probabilities and the second probabilities corresponding to a single hit, determining the state transition matrix after a preset number of hits includes:

[0059] A variety of failure states of different degrees are preset. It should be understood that the damage status level of the target device is mainly divided according to its usage characteristics and equipment support characteristics. The damage status level of the target device in a certain damage state is determined according to the established assessment criteria.

[0060] According to traditional practices, the present invention qualitatively divides the battle damage status levels of target devices into several levels: "no damage, slight damage, severe damage, and scrapped damage".

[0061] In such Figure 2 as well as Figure 3In the supply system shown, when the water supply equipment A or the water supply valve B fails, the entire system will fail completely due to the loss of water supply. When each component is used as the basic unit of failure, 16 state combinations are generated, and it is difficult to distinguish the coupling effect caused by the failure of the water supply valve B. Using 3 connecting lines as the basic unit of failure generates 8 state combinations, and there is no coupling relationship between the failure states;

[0062] Table 1 System failure status and corresponding battle damage status level

[0063]

[0064] Among them, the connection status is 1, and the failure is 0. LS1, LS2, LS3, LS4, LS5, LS6, LS7 and LS8 represent 8 different failure states respectively;

[0065] In the case of failure of connection 1 or connection 1, the supply end of the system fails, which will cause all other functions of the structure to fail; when only connection 2 fails, the function of node C and the device C representing water cooling will also fail; when only connection 3 fails, the function of node D and the steam generating device represented by it will fail.

[0066] Then, according to the first probability of a failed node and the second probability of a failed link in each failure state, an initial failure probability of each failure state is determined;

[0067] The initial failure probability of each failure state is shown as follows:

[0068]

[0069] Among them, P i represents the initial failure probability corresponding to the failure state, ∑P 节点 represents the sum of the first probabilities of all nodes contained in all failed links in the failure state, It represents the sum of the first probabilities of the common nodes connected by the failed links and the non-failed links among all the above nodes.

[0070] At this time, when the first failure state is transferred to the second failure state, the transfer probability after a single attack is determined according to the first probability of the corresponding failed node and the second probability of the connection, as well as the initial failure probability of the first failure state;

[0071] According to each transition probability, the state transition matrix after the preset number of strikes is determined.

[0072] Specifically, the Markov process is a random process with no aftereffect, that is, the future state depends only on the current state and has nothing to do with the past state. When a system contains N independent states, its one-step state transfer matrix can be written as:

[0073]

[0074] In the formula, N represents the state number of the system; P i·j It represents the probability that the system will transfer from state i to state j after a hit; T(1) represents the one-step state transfer matrix.

[0075] According to the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation, the state transfer matrix after K hits has the following relationship with the one-step transfer matrix:

[0076] T(K)=[T(1)] K

[0077] Wherein, T(K) represents the state transition matrix after K hits. Then, the transition probability after a single hit can be determined according to the first probability of the corresponding failed node and the second probability of the connection, as well as the initial failure probability of the first failure state, including:

[0078] First, determine the initial failure probability P of the first failure state LSi before the transfer i , and identify the second failure state LSj after the transfer to determine the failed connections and common nodes during the transfer process;

[0079] Please refer to here Figure 5 As shown, P 连线 Both refer to the second probability that the corresponding link is hit and fails. LSi is a subset of LSj, which refers to the inclusion relationship between link failure states. For example, in Table 1, LS3 (only link 2 fails) is a subset of LS4 (link 2 and link 3 fail together).

[0080] Of course, if the connection line of the second failure state LSj after the transfer is inconsistent with the first failure state LSi before the transfer, that is, the second failure state LSj after the transfer does not completely include the first failure state LSi before the transfer, which is obviously impossible, then it is considered that the transfer probability P i·j is 0;

[0081] If there is no failed connection during the transfer process, when i is equal to 1, the initial failure probability P of the first failed state LSi before the transfer is i As the corresponding transition probability P i·j , if i is not equal to 1, the initial failure probability P1 corresponding to the failure state LS1 is compared with the initial failure probability P corresponding to the first failure state LSi. iThe sum is taken as the corresponding transition probability P i·j ;

[0082] If the number of failed links during the transfer process is one, and if the new failed link has a common node R with the first failed state LSi, then only the failed state of the new failed link will be included. Figure 5 LSk is used to represent the initial failure probability corresponding to the failure state. Figure 5 China-Israel k It indicates that the first probability P of the public node R being attacked and failing is 公共节点R The sum of is the corresponding transition probability P i·j If the new failed link has no common nodes with LSi, then the initial failure probability P corresponding to the failed link is k As the corresponding transition probability P i·j , where the common nodes are characterized as nodes connected with different links;

[0083] If the number of failed links during the transfer process is greater than one, and if there is no common node among the links in the realized state LSk, it is impossible to occur, and the corresponding transfer probability P is considered i·j is 0. If the failure state LSk has a common node G with the failure state LSi, then the initial failure probability P corresponding to the failure state LSk is k And the first probability P of all public nodes G being attacked and failing 公共节点G The sum of is the corresponding transition probability P i·j If the failure state LSk does not have a common node with the failure state LSi, then the initial failure probability P corresponding to the failure state LSk is k As the corresponding transition probability P i·j .

[0084] After solving the one-step state transfer matrix of the target device according to the above formula, the failure state probability matrix S of the target device under the preset strike is solved, so as to solve the probability of the damage state level of the equipment, that is:

[0085]

[0086] Among them, P K rank is the probability of the damage status level of the equipment, rank is the specific level, K is the number of strikes, and m belongs to the collection of failure states of the failure link. For example, in the probability of "scrap" in Table 1, m belongs to the set {LS5, LS6, LS7, LS8}.

[0087] Specifically, based on the state transfer matrix, the damage state of the target device after the preset strike is evaluated, including:

[0088] Based on the importance of the connection relationship between the components corresponding to each connection line to the operation of the target device, multiple battle damage status levels corresponding to different failure states are established, namely "mild", "moderate", "severe" and "scrap" in Table 1;

[0089] Selecting the transition probability of the failure state corresponding to each battle damage state level from the failure transition matrix to determine the probability of occurrence of each battle damage state level after a preset number of strikes;

[0090] According to the occurrence probability corresponding to each damage status level, the damage status of the target device after the preset number of strikes is evaluated.

[0091] Furthermore, in order to more intuitively count the damage status of the target device after a preset number of strikes, the present invention can also obtain the initial failure status of the target device and establish an initial status matrix;

[0092] The initial matrix and the state transfer matrix are multiplied to obtain the probability of occurrence of each battle damage state level after a preset number of strikes, so as to evaluate the battle damage state of the target device after the preset number of strikes;

[0093] The formula is as follows:

[0094] S(K)=S(0)T(K)

[0095] Where S(K) is the failure state probability matrix of the target device, and S(0) is the initial state probability matrix of the target device, which is generally defined as the initial state is intact, that is:

[0096] S(0)=[1 0 … 0]

[0097] Among them, each element in S(0) corresponds to a failure state;

[0098] Therefore, when S(0) is known, the probability of each damage state of the target device under any K strikes can be obtained.

[0099] That is, after the state transfer matrix is ​​obtained, the initial state of the target device can be linked to divide the target device into battle loss failure state levels and solve the battle loss failure state level probability.

[0100] The present invention illustrates the above method with Example 2:

[0101] Specifically, a ship steam turbine generator set is used as the target device for schematic illustration:

[0102] The ship power system ensures the ship's maneuverability and provides the required energy for other systems. As an important part of the power system, the steam turbine generator set supplies electrical energy for the ship's propulsion power, weapons, ship support systems, etc.

[0103] The steam turbine generator set of a ship is mainly composed of a steam turbine, a reducer, a turning gear, a synchronous generator, a steam seal system, a lubricating oil system, etc., and is installed on a vibration isolation base as a whole. Assume that the main structures and their connections considered when establishing the impact failure grid model are as follows: Figure 6 As shown;

[0104] The steam turbine converts the steam thermal energy from the boiler or steam generator into the mechanical energy of the rotor, driving the generator to generate electricity; the reducer is used to reduce the speed of the steam turbine and transmit torque to the generator. As one of the important parts of the steam turbine generator set, the steam turbine used on ships is also required to be able to work continuously and reliably for a long time, with high vitality and good maneuverability; the turning equipment is used to drive the rotor to rotate at a low speed when the unit is started so that the rotor is evenly heated, or to drive the rotor to rotate after shutdown to keep the rotor evenly cooled and reduce the possibility of rotor deformation.

[0105] In order to simplify the calculation of the probability of failure of the turbine generator set due to war, the following Figure 7 The grid model of the steam turbine generator set failure is shown;

[0106] Each node, including the intersection of the dotted line and the straight line, represents an independent space. Each line is composed of nodes passing through it. Considering that some components are closely connected or in the same physical space, they are simplified into a grid space and are not considered separately during grid modeling. Figure 7 In the figure, A-1 indicates the turbine bearing, A-2 indicates the circulation part, A-3 indicates the steam seal, A-4 indicates the quick-closing valve, A-5 indicates the steam distribution mechanism, B-1 indicates the reducer housing, B-2 indicates the planetary gear, B-3 indicates the reducer bearing, C indicates the turning device, CP-1 and CP-2 indicate the couplings connecting different devices on the main shaft, as indicates the functional node, which is used to disconnect the connection between the turbine bearing A-1, the coupling CP-1 and the turning device C, D-1 indicates the generator body, and D-2 indicates the excitation Magnetic and voltage adjustment system, D-3 represents the frequency and load adjustment device, E represents the steam seal system, among which, the turbine bearing A-1 is closely related to the steam seal A-3, and the two are modeled as a node; the quick-closing valve A-4 is closely related to the steam distribution mechanism A-5, and the two are modeled as a node; the planetary gear B-2 is closely related to the reducer housing B-1, and the two are modeled as a node; the generator body D-1 is closely related to the excitation and voltage adjustment system D-2, and the two are modeled as a node.

[0107] Since the components between the couplings are directly connected to the main shaft and there are no additional structural branches, it is better to use nodes with at least 3 lines as target nodes and nodes with less than 3 lines as non-target nodes to simplify subsequent calculations;

[0108] Determining the connection between nodes according to the preset connection relationship between components also includes:

[0109] When a line between two target nodes contains only non-target nodes, a new line is used to connect the two target nodes and all non-target nodes;

[0110] It should be understood that the above situation is only applicable to non-target nodes and target nodes that are in the middle of the strike failure grid model. If all nodes between the target node and the endpoint are non-target nodes, a new line can also be used to connect the target node to the endpoint.

[0111] Of course, the above method is only an implementation method for simplifying the calculation amount. If a more intuitive display of the structural composition of the actual target device is required, multiple connected non-target nodes can also be disconnected, that is, two target nodes and all non-target nodes are connected with two lines. There is no limitation here.

[0112] Specifically, in subsequent calculations, the connection line between the two couplings is set as one to further reduce the number of connections and simplify the calculations. That is, the six connections from A to CP-1, CP-1 to B-3, B-3 to B-2, B-2 to B-3, B-3 to CP-2, and CP-2 to D-1 are regarded as a whole of connection 4 and participate in subsequent calculations. It should be understood that due to the objective existence of various components and nodes, when calculating the second probability of connection 4 being hit and failing, all nodes contained in the above six connections still need to be considered.

[0113] 1. Each node of the steam turbine generator set represents an independent space, and the lines between nodes represent the physical or functional connections.

[0114] 2. A single attack only makes one node invalid, and the probability of acting on each node is the same. The first probability of each node being hit and invalid is independent of each other.

[0115] 3. When any node on a connection fails, the connection fails. When a common node on a connection fails, other connections that share the node fail as well.

[0116] Taking into account the contribution of each component to its main function, its own reliability and sensitivity to external attacks in the ship's steam turbine power generation group, the attack probability function assumptions of the nodes in the model are shown in Table 2. At the same time, the attack probability functions of the nodes in the model can also be obtained through historical prior data.

[0117] Table 2. Strike failure grid model common nodes and connection line strike probability function

[0118]

[0119]

[0120] It should be noted that in Table 2, the failed links include common nodes, and some common nodes are calculated repeatedly. For example, the connections involved in common node A-2 include link 1 and link 2, that is, the hit probability functions of link 1 and link 2 both include node A-2.

[0121] according to Figure 7 The grid model of the steam turbine generator set impact failure is mainly distributed and includes 14 main nodes. The line between node CP-1 and node D-1 is recorded as 1 to simplify the calculation, with a total of 9 lines, namely, line 1 corresponds to node A-1 to node A-2, line 2 corresponds to node A-2 to node A-1, line 3 corresponds to node A-1 to node as, line 4 corresponds to node as to node D-1, line 5 corresponds to node D-1 to node D-3, line 6 corresponds to node as to node C, line 7 corresponds to node A-2 to node A-4, line 8 corresponds to node A-1 to node E, and line 9 corresponds to node E to node A-1.

[0122] Theoretically, initially, there are 2 steam turbine generator sets. 9 There are several connection failure states, and the failure states of some connections are shown in Table 3.

[0123] Table 3 Failure status of steam turbine generator set

[0124]

[0125] In the above table, it is obvious that failure state LS9, that is, the situation where connection 8 fails alone does not exist, but there is a possibility that connection 8 and connection 9 fail at the same time, such as failure state LS46 in Table 3. Therefore, the connection failure state transfer matrix can be further simplified.

[0126] Further, according to Figure 5 The process in the figure calculates the state transition probability after a strike. 9 There are connection failure states, so the connection failure state transfer matrix size is 2 9 ×2 9 When the steam turbine generator set is hit once, the connection failure state transfer matrix is:

[0127]

[0128] Among them, considering the power generation function of the steam turbine generator set, the state of the damaged connection of the above steam turbine generator set is divided into four levels: "no damage", "mild", "severe" and "scrapped". Among them, "mild" is the state set where the main connection is not damaged, which is the initial state in the example of this paper; "moderate" is the state where only one non-main shaft connection is damaged, that is, connection 5, connection 6, connection 7, connection 8, and connection 9 are damaged separately, and the damage and failure have little impact on the power generation function of the steam turbine generator in an instant; "severe" means that two or more non-main shaft connections are damaged and failed, which has a certain impact on the steam input and output and power generation function of the steam turbine generator set; "scrap" means that the part of the steam turbine generator main shaft that transmits torque is damaged. In this state, the steam turbine generator cannot continue to generate electricity normally.

[0129] Define the initial damage status:

[0130] S(0)=[1 0 … 0]

[0131] The probability of connection failure under preset multiple strikes can be obtained, and the probability of damage level of the steam turbine generator set can be solved to obtain the probability of occurrence of each level.

[0132] The turbine generator set strike failure grid model established in this paper only considers the damage of the turbine generator, that is, once hit, the model is damaged and transferred from the initial state to other damage state levels.

[0133] This article takes another steam turbine generator set as Example 3 and performs calculations:

[0134] At this time, the main considerations are the structures and their connections. Figure 8 As shown, and established as Fig. 9 Failure strike mesh model shown;

[0135] The transition probability from the initial no-connection-damaged state to other failure states can be obtained, as shown in Table 4.

[0136] Table 4 Transition probability of transferring to other failure states without damaged connection

[0137]

[0138]

[0139] In Table 4, the sum of the probabilities of transitioning from the unconnected state LS1 to other connection state combinations is 1, and the probability of the initial state transition not listed in the table is 0. The connection failure state transition matrix can be further calculated, and the size of the matrix is ​​2 8 ×2 8 .

[0140]

[0141] By exponentiating the matrix, we can obtain the probability distribution of transitioning from the initial state (no damage) to other failure states under multiple attacks. The probability distribution of the failure state of each group of connections under multiple attacks is as follows: Fig.10 shown.

[0142] Depend on Fig.10 It can be seen that the probability of a single link failing ( Fig.10 The probability of "only connection 2 failure" in the above figure decreases rapidly with the increase of the number of strikes. The probability of failure state transition of other parts of the connection failure battle damage increases first and then decreases with the increase of the number of strikes. The failure state probability of battle damage is generally at a low level, and more attention should be paid to the probability of battle damage state level in the process of allocating maintenance resources.

[0143] Considering the power generation function of the steam turbine generator set, the state of the damaged connection of the above steam turbine generator set is divided into four levels: "no damage", "mild", "severe" and "scrapped", and the failed connection state is combined and counted. Among them, "no damage" refers to the state set where the main connection is not damaged. In the example of this paper, it is the blank node in the failure grid model that is hit; "mild" means that any function of the steam seal system, the turning device or the lubricating oil system is failed; "severe" means that two or more functions of the steam seal system, the turning device or the lubricating oil system fail, which has a certain impact on the steam input and output and power generation function of the steam turbine generator set; "scrapped" means that the torque transmitted by the main shaft of the steam turbine generator is partially damaged, that is, the connection 1 and the connection 2 are hit and fail. In this state, the steam turbine generator cannot continue to generate electricity normally.

[0144] Depend on Fig.11 It can be seen that as the number of weapon hits increases, the probability of the steam turbine generator set being in an intact state becomes smaller, and the probability of being scrapped rises rapidly. The probabilities of the other two levels increase first and then decrease.

[0145] When the initial state is defined as:

[0146]

[0147] The steam turbine generator set is in a "mild" state, and at this moment, the connection 5 fails, and the following can be obtained: Fig.12 The probability distribution and evolution of equipment damage status level under the multiple strikes described above.

[0148] Obviously, when the steam turbine generator set is hit again, it is impossible for the state to transfer to the intact state, so the "intact" state level probability is always 0. Except for the slightly damaged state level probability, which decreases rapidly during the increase in the number of hits, the other two level probabilities are compared with the initial state of "intact", and the changes of the two are small, indicating that the contribution of line 5 to the "scrap" state level probability is small.

[0149] Considering that the number of times a ship is hit in wartime is mainly within 3 times, the contribution of the connection line to the probability of different failure state levels under 3 hits is analyzed below.

[0150] The connection contribution is defined as the rate of change of the probability of the damage status level when the failure of the connection is not considered. The status of a public node on a connection will affect the status of other connections. Therefore, when analyzing the contribution of a connection, only the failure of the non-public nodes of the connection is not considered.

[0151] The failure of link 4 involves a common node, so it is difficult to analyze the contribution of link 4 alone. Links 5, 6, 7, and 8 are all related to the lubricating oil system and have certain similarities. Therefore, only the contribution of links 1, 2, 3, and 5 is calculated and analyzed. Fig.13 shown.

[0152] by Fig.13 Taking the contribution of link 1 in (a) as an example, after the equipment is hit once, without considering the failure of link 1, the probability of the equipment being at the "intact" level increases by 10.59% compared with the failure of link 1. As the number of hits increases, the contribution of link 1 to the "intact" status level also shows an obvious upward trend. Considering that links 1 and 2 are directly related to the "scrap" level, without considering the failure of link 1 or link 2, the probability of the "scrap" level is reduced, so the contribution of links 1 and 2 to the "scrap" level is negative. At the same time, links 3 and 5 are not directly related to the "scrap" status level, so the corresponding contributions in the figure are relatively small.

[0153] Therefore, in order to prevent the steam turbine generator set from entering the "scrapped" status level after multiple attacks, it is necessary to take certain optimization measures for connection 1 and connection 2, that is, the main shaft of the steam turbine generator set in the early design stage. During the execution of combat missions, measures need to be taken to protect the main shaft of the steam turbine generator set to ensure that it can successfully complete the combat mission.

[0154] The present invention conducts a battle damage analysis on the steam turbine generator set, which is the main power equipment of the ship, based on the basic theory of Markov process, and calculates the probability of different battle damage status levels under multiple attacks. In the solution process, the steam turbine generator set is modeled with a strike failure grid, which simplifies the types and number of variables that need to be considered in the battle damage analysis process, and reduces the data requirements for the early assessment and prediction of the battle damage of the steam turbine generator set. Considering the basic functions and roles of the steam turbine generator set in performing tasks, the functional losses that may occur under the battle damage model are quantitatively divided into different battle damage status levels, and specific definitions are made according to the functions of the related connections, and finally a predicted probability curve of the battle damage status level of the ship's main steam turbine set is obtained, which provides decision support for the subsequent repair method analysis and emergency repair resource analysis of the ship's main steam turbine set.

[0155] The present invention also provides a probability assessment system for equipment damage status level, please refer to Fig.14 As shown, including:

[0156] A grid model generation module, which establishes a strike failure grid model according to the components in the target device and their connection relationships, wherein the failure grid model includes a plurality of nodes, each node corresponds to a component, and the connection between the nodes is determined according to the preset connection relationship between the components;

[0157] A failure probability determination module is configured to obtain a first probability that each node in the strike failure grid model is hit once and fails, and determine a second probability that each connection is hit once and fails according to each of the first probabilities;

[0158] A matrix calculation module, combining the first probabilities and the second probabilities corresponding to a single hit, to determine a state transfer matrix after a preset number of hits, wherein the state transfer matrix is ​​characterized as a set of probabilities that the hit failure grid model changes from one failure state to another failure state;

[0159] An evaluation module evaluates the damage state of the target device after a preset number of strikes based on the state transfer matrix.

[0160] Further, nodes connected with at least three of the links are taken as target nodes, and nodes connected with less than three links are taken as non-target nodes;

[0161] The mesh model generation module also includes:

[0162] When a line between two target nodes only includes the non-target nodes, a new line is used to connect the two target nodes and all the non-target nodes.

[0163] Similarly, the above situation is only applicable to non-target nodes and target nodes that are in the middle of the strike failure grid model. If all nodes between the target node and the endpoint are non-target nodes, a new line can also be used to connect the target node to the endpoint.

[0164] Of course, the above method is only an implementation method for simplifying the calculation amount. If a more intuitive display of the structural composition of the actual target device is required, multiple connected non-target nodes can also be disconnected, that is, two target nodes and all non-target nodes are connected with two lines. There is no limitation here.

[0165] Furthermore, the failure probability determination module specifically includes:

[0166] Determine the first probability of each node in the strike failure grid model being struck and failing by using prior data;

[0167] The sum of the first probabilities of all the nodes connected to each of the links is used as the second probability of the corresponding link being hit once and failing.

[0168] Furthermore, the matrix calculation module specifically includes:

[0169] Preset a plurality of failure states of different degrees, and determine an initial failure probability of each failure state according to a first probability of the node failing in each failure state and a second probability of the link failing;

[0170] When the first failure state is transferred to the second failure state, the transfer probability after a single attack is determined according to the first probability of the corresponding failed node and the second probability of the link, as well as the initial failure probability of the first failure state;

[0171] According to each transition probability, the state transition matrix after the preset number of strikes is determined.

[0172] Furthermore, the evaluation module specifically includes:

[0173] Based on the importance of the connection relationship between the components corresponding to each of the connection lines to the operation of the target device, a plurality of battle damage status levels corresponding to different failure states are established;

[0174] Selecting the transition probability of the failure state corresponding to each battle damage state level from the failure transfer matrix to determine the probability of occurrence of each battle damage state level after a preset number of strikes;

[0175] According to the occurrence probability corresponding to each of the damage status levels, the damage status of the target device after a preset number of strikes is evaluated.

[0176] Furthermore, the evaluation module specifically includes:

[0177] Determine the initial failure state of the target device and establish an initial state matrix;

[0178] The initial matrix and the state transfer matrix are multiplied to obtain the probability of occurrence of each damage state level after a preset number of strikes, so as to evaluate the damage state of the target device after the preset number of strikes.

[0179] The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, in which instructions are stored. When the instructions are executed on a terminal device, the terminal device executes the steps of the above-mentioned method for probability assessment of equipment battle damage status level.

[0180] The present invention also provides an electronic device, including a memory, a processor, and a program stored in the memory and running on the processor. When the processor executes the program, the steps of a method for probability assessment of equipment battle damage status level as described above are implemented.

[0181] Although the embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it is to be understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and are not to be construed as limitations of the present invention. A person skilled in the art may change, modify, replace and vary the above embodiments within the scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the probability of equipment damage status level, characterized in that: include: According to the components in the target device and their connection relationships, a strike failure grid model is established, wherein the failure grid model includes a plurality of nodes, each node corresponds to a component, and the connection lines between the nodes are determined according to the preset connection relationships between the components; Obtaining a first probability that each of the nodes in the strike failure grid model is hit once and fails, and determining a second probability that each of the links is hit once and fails according to each of the first probabilities; Combining the first probabilities and the second probabilities corresponding to a single hit, determining a state transfer matrix after a preset number of hits, wherein the state transfer matrix is ​​characterized as a set of probabilities of the hit failure grid model changing from one failure state to another failure state; According to the state transfer matrix, evaluating the damage state of the target device after a preset number of strikes; Obtaining a first probability that each of the nodes in the strike failure grid model is hit once and fails, and determining a second probability that each of the links is hit once and fails according to each of the first probabilities, including: Determine the first probability of each node in the strike failure grid model being struck and failing by using prior data; The sum of the first probabilities of all the nodes connected to each of the links is used as the second probability that the corresponding link is hit once and becomes invalid; Combining the first probabilities and the second probabilities corresponding to a single hit, determining a state transfer matrix after a preset number of hits, includes: Preset multiple failure states of different degrees, and determine the initial failure probability of each failure state according to the first probability of all the nodes failing in each failure state and the second probability of all the links failing; When the first failure state is transferred to the second failure state, the transfer probability after a single attack is determined according to the first probability of all the nodes corresponding to the failure and the second probability of the connection, as well as the initial failure probability of the first failure state; Determine the initial failure probability P of the first failure state LSi before the transfer i , and identify the second failure state LSj after the transfer to determine the failed connections and common nodes during the transfer process; If the second failure state LSj after the transfer does not completely include the first failure state LSi before the transfer, then the transfer probability P i·j is 0; If there is no failed connection during the transfer process, and when i is equal to 1, the initial failure probability P of the first failed state LSi before the transfer is i As the corresponding transition probability P i·j , if i is not equal to 1, the initial failure probability P1 corresponding to the failure state LS1 is compared with the initial failure probability P corresponding to the first failure state LSi. i The sum is taken as the corresponding transition probability P i·j ; If the number of failed links during the transfer process is one, and if the new failed link has a common node R with the first failed state LSi, then only the failure state of the new failed link will be included, and the first probability P of the common node R being hit and failing will be included. 公共节点R The sum of is the corresponding transition probability P i·j If the new failed link has no common nodes with the first failed state LSi, then the initial failure probability P corresponding to the failed link is k As the corresponding transition probability P i·j , where the common nodes are characterized as nodes connected with different links; If the number of failed links in the transfer process is greater than one, and if there is no common node among the links in the failed state LSk, then the corresponding transfer probability P i·j is 0. If the failure state LSk has a common node G with the failure state LSi, then the initial failure probability P corresponding to the failure state LSk is k And the first probability P of all public nodes G being attacked and failing 公共节点G The sum of is the corresponding transition probability P i·j If the failure state LSk does not have a common node with the failure state LSi, then the initial failure probability P corresponding to the failure state LSk is k As the corresponding transition probability P i·j ; According to each transition probability, the state transition matrix after the preset number of strikes is determined.

2. The method for evaluating equipment battle damage status level probability according to claim 1, characterized in that: Nodes connected to at least three of the lines are regarded as target nodes, and nodes connected to less than three lines are regarded as non-target nodes; Determining the connection between nodes according to the preset connection relationship between components also includes: When a line between two target nodes only includes the non-target nodes, a new line is used to connect the two target nodes and all the non-target nodes.

3. The method for evaluating equipment battle damage status level probability according to claim 1, characterized in that: According to the state transfer matrix, evaluating the damage state of the target device after a preset strike, including: Based on the importance of the connection relationship between the components corresponding to each of the connection lines to the operation of the target device, a plurality of battle damage status levels corresponding to different failure states are established; Selecting the transition probability of the failure state corresponding to each battle damage state level from the failure transition matrix to determine the probability of occurrence of each battle damage state level after a preset number of strikes; According to the occurrence probability corresponding to each of the damage status levels, the damage status of the target device after a preset number of strikes is evaluated.

4. The method for evaluating equipment battle damage status level probability according to claim 3 is characterized in that: Selecting the transition probability of the failure state corresponding to each of the battle damage state levels from the failure transfer matrix to determine the occurrence probability of each of the battle damage state levels after a preset number of strikes, and evaluating the battle damage state of the target device after the preset number of strikes according to the occurrence probability corresponding to each of the battle damage state levels, including: Determine the initial failure state of the target device and establish an initial state matrix; The initial matrix and the state transfer matrix are multiplied to obtain the probability of occurrence of each damage state level after a preset number of strikes, so as to evaluate the damage state of the target device after the preset number of strikes.

5. A probability assessment system for equipment damage status level, characterized in that: include: A grid model generation module, which establishes a strike failure grid model according to the components in the target device and their connection relationships, wherein the failure grid model includes a plurality of nodes, each node corresponds to a component, and the connection between the nodes is determined according to the preset connection relationship between the components; A failure probability determination module is configured to obtain a first probability that each node in the strike failure grid model is hit once and fails, and determine a second probability that each connection is hit once and fails according to each of the first probabilities; A matrix calculation module, combining the first probabilities and the second probabilities corresponding to a single hit, to determine a state transfer matrix after a preset number of hits, wherein the state transfer matrix is ​​characterized as a set of probabilities that the hit failure grid model changes from one failure state to another failure state; An evaluation module, which evaluates the damage state of the target device after a preset number of strikes according to the state transfer matrix; The failure probability determination module specifically includes: Determine the first probability of each node in the strike failure grid model being struck and failing by using prior data; The sum of the first probabilities of all the nodes connected to each of the links is used as the second probability that the corresponding link is hit once and becomes invalid; The matrix calculation module specifically includes: Preset a plurality of failure states of different degrees, and determine an initial failure probability of each failure state according to a first probability of the node failing in each failure state and a second probability of the link failing; When the first failure state is transferred to the second failure state, the transfer probability after a single attack is determined according to the first probability of the corresponding failed node and the second probability of the link, as well as the initial failure probability of the first failure state; When the first failure state is transferred to the second failure state, the transfer probability after a single attack is determined according to the first probability of all the nodes corresponding to the failure and the second probability of the connection, as well as the initial failure probability of the first failure state; Determine the initial failure probability P of the first failure state LSi before the transfer i , and identify the second failure state LSj after the transfer to determine the failed connections and common nodes during the transfer process; If the second failure state LSj after the transfer does not completely include the first failure state LSi before the transfer, then the transfer probability P i·j is 0; If there is no failed connection during the transfer process, and when i is equal to 1, the initial failure probability P of the first failed state LSi before the transfer is i As the corresponding transition probability P i·j , if i is not equal to 1, the initial failure probability P1 corresponding to the failure state LS1 is compared with the initial failure probability P corresponding to the first failure state LSi. i The sum is taken as the corresponding transition probability P i·j ; If the number of failed links during the transfer process is one, and if the new failed link has a common node R with the first failed state LSi, then only the failure state of the new failed link will be included, and the first probability P of the common node R being hit and failing will be included. 公共节点R The sum of is the corresponding transition probability P i·j If the new failed link has no common nodes with the first failed state LSi, then the initial failure probability P corresponding to the failed link is k As the corresponding transition probability P i·j , where the common nodes are characterized as nodes connected with different links; If the number of failed links in the transfer process is greater than one, and if there is no common node among the links in the failed state LSk, then the corresponding transfer probability P i·j is 0. If the failure state LSk has a common node G with the failure state LSi, then the initial failure probability P corresponding to the failure state LSk is k And the first probability P of all public nodes G being attacked and failing 公共节点G The sum of is the corresponding transition probability P i·j If the failure state LSk does not have a common node with the failure state LSi, then the initial failure probability P corresponding to the failure state LSk is k As the corresponding transition probability P i·j ; According to each of the transition probabilities, a state transition matrix after a preset number of strikes is determined.

6. The equipment battle damage status level probability assessment system according to claim 5 is characterized in that: Nodes connected to at least three of the lines are regarded as target nodes, and nodes connected to less than three lines are regarded as non-target nodes; The grid model generation module also includes: When a line between two target nodes only includes the non-target nodes, a new line is used to connect the two target nodes and all the non-target nodes.

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