A method for managing operational risks and compliance analysis in a power market

Abstract

This invention provides a management method that combines risk and compliance analysis in the power market, comprising the following steps: Step 1: Establishing a comprehensive market risk evaluation and analysis model; Step 2: Establishing a comprehensive market operation compliance evaluation and analysis model; Step 3: Establishing a compliance and risk management information sharing platform. This enhances the synergistic effect of risk and compliance management and allows for timely collection and feedback of control effects and issues.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of management technology for power market operation institutions, and in particular to a management method that combines power market operation risk and compliance analysis. Background Technology

[0002] Electricity market operating institutions are organizations responsible for organizing and implementing electricity transactions, providing public services, and supervising and managing market activities in the electricity market. They are a core component of the electricity market, and their management level and capabilities directly impact the stability, fairness, transparency, and efficiency of the electricity market.

[0003] The existing technology still has the following shortcomings:

[0004] (1) The internal compliance behavior evaluation system is not perfect. The existing management and control system of the power market lacks an internal compliance behavior evaluation system based on objective data. Most of them rely on subjective human evaluation, which is subjective.

[0005] (2) Internal compliance and external risk management are relatively independent. The existing control system operates with relatively independent decision-making and execution processes for internal compliance and external risk management in market operations.

[0006] (3) Poor coordination, communication and feedback capabilities. The existing control system lacks effective coordination and communication with internal departments and external stakeholders, making it difficult to form a synergistic effect in risk and compliance management, and also making it difficult to collect and provide timely feedback on control effects and problems. Summary of the Invention

[0007] In view of this, the purpose of this invention is to provide a management method that combines risk and compliance analysis in the operation of the power market, enhances the synergy between risk and compliance management, and collects and reports control effects and problems in a timely manner.

[0008] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention adopts the following technical solution: a management method combining power market operation risk and compliance analysis, comprising the following steps:

[0009] Step 1: Establish a comprehensive market risk assessment and analysis model;

[0010] Step 2: Establish a comprehensive evaluation and analysis model for market operation compliance;

[0011] Step 3: Establish a compliance and risk management information sharing platform.

[0012] In a preferred embodiment, step 1 specifically includes: establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system that fully reflects the risks of the electricity market, distinguishing the index layers that affect the risks of the electricity market, and dividing them into primary indicators and secondary indicators;

[0013] When conducting an evaluation, the original values ​​(scores) of the indicators first need to be processed to conform to the trend. Generally, this involves converting negative and moderate indicators into positive indicators, thus obtaining y. ij ;

[0014] The formula for turning a contrarian indicator into a positive one is:

[0015] y ij =max{x ij}-x ij or y ij =-x ij

[0016] In the formula: x ij y represents the j-th secondary indicator within the i-th primary indicator; ij This indicates a positive indicator after indicator processing.

[0017] The formula for positiveizing the appropriateness index is:

[0018] y ij =max|x ij -k|-|x ij -k|or y ij =-|x ij -k|

[0019] In the formula: k is the processing constant.

[0020] Construct a comparison matrix, using the mean value a of each indicator. ij As the final score, we get:

[0021]

[0022] In the formula: A ij To compare matrices, a ij This represents the average score obtained by comparing the factors of the indicators; i represents the primary indicator, j represents the secondary indicator, and a ij =0 indicates that indicator j is more important than indicator i; a ij =0.5 indicates that indicator j and indicator i are equally important; a ij =1 indicates that indicator i is more important than indicator j.

[0023] Construct a judgment matrix, and compare matrix A. ij Construct matrix U ij =(u ij ) n×n And perform row-by-row summation, where s represents the summation value. Where U ij To determine the matrix, n is the dimension of the matrix, u ij For the judgment matrix U ij The value in the i-th row and j-th column, i = 1, 2, 3, ..., n, j = 1, 2, 3, ..., n.

[0024]

[0025] In the formula: a ij s is the mean score obtained by comparing the indicator factors. i To compare matrix A ij The i-th row a ij The lines and s min For all s i The minimum value in, s max For all s i The maximum value in.

[0026] The constraints are:

[0027]

[0028] In the formula: s i To compare matrix A ij The i-th row a ij The lines and s j To compare matrix A ij column j of the middle ij The column sum, where c is the comparison factor, satisfies

[0029] Judgment matrix U ij u in ij satisfy:

[0030]

[0031] In the formula: u ii with u jj For the judgment matrix U ij The main diagonal element in the text, u ji For the judgment matrix U ij The value in the j-th row and i-th column.

[0032] The weighted eigenvector ω can be obtained as:

[0033] ω=[ω1,ω2,ω3,...,ω n ] T

[0034] Where ω i Let ω be the weight vector of each indicator layer. 11 ,ω 12 ,…,ω 17 The weighting coefficients of the secondary indicators under the current primary indicator are as follows: ω1 = [ω 11 ,ω 12 ,…,ω 17 ] T ω iThe calculation method is as follows:

[0035]

[0036] In the formula: u ij For the judgment matrix U ij The value in the i-th row and j-th column of the matrix, where n is the dimension of the matrix and i is the value of U. ij The number of rows in the matrix, j is U ij The number of columns in the matrix, i = 1, 2, 3, ..., n, j = 1, 2, 3, ..., n.

[0037] In a preferred embodiment, step 2 specifically includes: First, collecting various behavioral data of the electricity market, including the frequency of information disclosure by operating agencies, the timeliness rate of periodic reports, the accuracy rate of report content, the disclosure time of major events, the disclosure time of governance documents of operating agencies, and the frequency of rule formulation and updates; the data is processed through step 1 to obtain the corresponding ω. i And based on the weighting coefficients, identify the key compliance indicators ω to focus on. ij .

[0038] In a preferred embodiment, step 3 specifically includes:

[0039] When the market risk comprehensive evaluation and analysis model identifies a certain secondary indicator Bi, i = 1, 2, 3…, with significant ω below it… ij The risk weights i,j,k = 1,2,3… are higher than ω. ik If i,j,k=1,2,3…, then it means that Cij is a risk warning that needs to be paid attention to under the current secondary indicator Bi. This result will also be fed back to the information sharing platform of the market operation institution in a timely manner.

[0040] When the market risk comprehensive evaluation and analysis model identifies a certain secondary indicator Bi, i = 1, 2, 3…, with significant ω below it… ij i,j,k=1,2,3…, the risk weight values ​​are higher than ω ik If i,j,k=1,2,3…, then Cij is a risk warning that needs to be paid attention to under the current secondary indicator Bi. This result will also be fed back to the information sharing platform of the market operation institution in a timely manner.

[0041] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0042] This invention provides a management method that combines risk and compliance analysis in the operation of the power market. It can comprehensively, timely and accurately collect and analyze various risks and compliance factors existing in the operation of the power market, thereby improving the efficiency and effectiveness of control.

[0043] This invention employs an improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weights of various risk and compliance indicators in the electricity market, thereby enhancing the objectivity and comprehensiveness of the evaluation model.

[0044] This invention improves the risk and compliance management level of power market operators. By establishing a comprehensive market risk evaluation and analysis model and a comprehensive market operation compliance evaluation and analysis model, it is possible to comprehensively, timely, and accurately collect and analyze various risks and compliance factors existing in power market operation, providing power market operators with scientific, objective, and comprehensive evaluation results and decision-making basis.

[0045] This invention enables effective coordination and communication among internal departments and external stakeholders. By establishing a compliance and risk management information sharing platform, the outputs of the two models are integrated into an online collaborative work platform, facilitating collaboration and coordination among internal departments, breaking down information barriers between external regulatory agencies and internal compliance agencies, improving work efficiency and quality, and enhancing internal and external trust and cooperation.

[0046] This invention proposes an information sharing platform to enhance the synergy between risk and compliance management, and to collect and report control effectiveness and issues in a timely manner. Through this platform, departments can clearly understand current external risks and receive immediate warnings of internal risks, while also facilitating information exchange and resource sharing with other departments. The platform also enables the timely collection and feedback of control effectiveness and issues, achieving continuous improvement in risk and compliance management. Detailed Implementation

[0047] The present invention will be further described below with reference to the embodiments.

[0048] It should be noted that the following detailed descriptions are illustrative and intended to provide further explanation of this application. Unless otherwise specified, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application pertains.

[0049] It should be noted that the terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular implementations only and is not intended to limit the exemplary implementations according to this application; as used herein, the singular form is intended to include the plural form as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise; furthermore, it should be understood that when the terms “comprising” and / or “including” are used in this specification, they indicate the presence of features, steps, operations, devices, components and / or combinations thereof.

[0050] A management approach that combines risk and compliance analysis in the power market includes the following steps:

[0051] The first step is to propose a comprehensive market risk evaluation and analysis model to analyze various risks existing in the operation of the electricity market, including price risk and market power risk. In comprehensively evaluating electricity market risks, this invention proposes to use the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to compare the importance of influencing factors. The steps are as follows:

[0052] First, establish a comprehensive evaluation index system that fully reflects the risks in the electricity market, and distinguish the indexes that affect the risks in the electricity market, dividing them into primary indicators and secondary indicators.

[0053] Table 1: Market Risk Comprehensive Evaluation and Analysis Model Indicator System and Parameters

[0054]

[0055]

[0056]

[0057] When conducting an evaluation, the original values ​​(scores) of the indicators first need to be processed to conform to the trend. Generally, this involves converting negative and moderate indicators into positive indicators, thus obtaining y. ij .

[0058] Establish a comprehensive market risk assessment and analysis model. Taking a regional power market operator as an example, firstly, it is necessary to collect various operational data of the power market, including but not limited to power trading volume, power prices, power demand, and supply. Then, the raw values ​​of the indicator data are processed to conform to trends, generally transforming inverse and moderate indicators into positive indicators, hence the term "indicator positivity."

[0059] Table 2: Processed Values

[0060]

[0061] The formula for turning a contrarian indicator into a positive one is:

[0062] y ij =max{x ij}-x ij or y ij =-x ij

[0063] In the formula: x ij y represents the j-th secondary indicator within the i-th primary indicator; ij This indicates a positive indicator after indicator processing.

[0064] The formula for positiveizing the appropriateness index is:

[0065] y ij =max|xij -k|-|x ij -k|or y ij =-|x ij -k|

[0066] In the formula: k is the processing constant.

[0067] Construct a comparison matrix, using the mean a of each score as an example. ij As the final score, we get:

[0068]

[0069] In the formula: A ij To compare matrices, a ij This represents the average score obtained by comparing the factors of the indicators; i represents the primary indicator, j represents the secondary indicator, and a ij =0 indicates that indicator j is more important than indicator i; a ij =0.5 indicates that indicator j and indicator i are equally important; a ij =1 indicates that indicator i is more important than indicator j.

[0070] Construct a judgment matrix, and compare matrix A. ij Construct matrix U ij =(u ij ) n×n And perform row-by-row summation, where s represents the summation value. Where U ij To determine the matrix, n is the dimension of the matrix, u ij For the judgment matrix U ij The value in the i-th row and j-th column, i = 1, 2, 3, ..., n, j = 1, 2, 3, ..., n.

[0071]

[0072] In the formula: a ij s is the mean score obtained by comparing the indicator factors. i To compare matrix A ij The i-th row a ij The lines and s min For all s i The minimum value in, s max For all s i The maximum value in.

[0073] The constraints are:

[0074]

[0075] In the formula: s i To compare matrix A ij The i-th row a ij The lines and sj To compare matrix A ij column j of the middle ij The column sum, where c is the comparison factor, satisfies

[0076] Judgment matrix U ij u in ij satisfy:

[0077]

[0078] In the formula: u ii with u jj For the judgment matrix U ij The main diagonal element in the text, u ji For the judgment matrix U ij The value in the j-th row and i-th column.

[0079] The weighted eigenvector ω can be obtained as:

[0080] ω=[ω1,ω2,ω3,...,ω n ] T

[0081] Where ω i Let ω be the weight vector of each indicator layer. 11 ,ω 12 ,…,ω 17 The weighting coefficients of the secondary indicators under the current primary indicator are as follows: ω1 = [ω 11 ,ω 12 ,…,ω 17 ] T ω i The calculation method is as follows:

[0082]

[0083] In the formula: u ij For the judgment matrix U ij The value in the i-th row and j-th column of the matrix, where n is the dimension of the matrix and i is the value of U. ij The number of rows in the matrix, j is U ij The number of columns in the matrix, i = 1, 2, 3, ..., n, j = 1, 2, 3, ..., n.

[0084] Table 3: Weight Calculation Results

[0085]

[0086] Based on the calculated weighting coefficients, compare the same secondary indicators, such as

[0087] ω1=[0.34,0.26,0.10,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06]T , such as ω 11 To ω 17 In the weight values, there exists ω 11 The largest value indicates the highest risk level in dimension C1 under the B1 risk indicator, thus requiring attention to the risk posed by C1 price volatility. Using the above method, the key risk indicator ω is identified based on the weighting coefficients. ij .

[0088] The second step involves proposing a market operation compliance analysis model to analyze various compliance behaviors involved in the operation of the electricity market. First, it is necessary to collect various behavioral data from the electricity market, including but not limited to the frequency of information disclosure by operating institutions, the timeliness rate of periodic reports, the accuracy rate of report content, the disclosure time of major events, the disclosure time of governance documents by operating institutions, and the frequency of rule formulation and updates. The data is then processed as described above to obtain the corresponding ω. i And based on the weighting coefficients, identify the key compliance indicators ω to focus on. ij .

[0089] Table 4: Market Operation Compliance Comprehensive Evaluation and Analysis Model Indicator System and Parameters

[0090]

[0091]

[0092]

[0093] The main function of this model is to analyze various compliance behaviors involved in the operation of the electricity market, evaluate the internal control level and effectiveness of market operators, and thus establish a comprehensive evaluation index system that fully reflects the compliance situation of the electricity market. This system includes 16 primary indicators and 28 secondary indicators, such as transaction and settlement risk, information security and protection, market competition and compliance, risk management and strategy, risk awareness at the decision-making level, internal audit, periodic reporting, disclosure of major events, corporate governance disclosure, market transaction rules, transaction data monitoring and analysis, investigation and handling of illegal transaction behaviors, fairness of the transaction market, safety production management, risk management and assessment, and disaster emergency response and recovery.

[0094] The main purposes of this indicator system are: to monitor and control transaction and settlement risks, and improve transaction and settlement quality; to monitor and improve information security and protection levels, and enhance information security management capabilities; to assess and optimize market competition and compliance levels, and enhance market competition management capabilities; to cultivate and enhance risk awareness at the decision-making level, and enhance risk management support at the decision-making level; and to standardize and optimize periodic reporting work, and improve the quality of periodic reports.

[0095] The third step is to establish a compliance and risk management information sharing platform. This involves integrating the outputs of the two models into a single information sharing platform. Specifically, when the market risk comprehensive evaluation and analysis model identifies a significant ω under a certain secondary indicator Bi (i = 1, 2, 3…),… ij (i,j,k=1,2,3…) The risk weight value is higher than ω. ik (i,j,k=1,2,3…), then it indicates that Cij is a risk warning that urgently needs attention under the current secondary indicator Bi; when the market risk comprehensive evaluation and analysis model identifies a significant ω under a certain secondary indicator Bi (i=1,2,3…), ij (i,j,k=1,2,3…) The risk weight value is higher than ω. ik If (i,j,k=1,2,3…), then Cij represents a risk warning that urgently needs attention under the current secondary indicator Bi. The outputs of these two models will be shared in real time to the enterprise's online collaborative work platform or an internal network system. Based on this platform, effective coordination and communication between internal departments and external stakeholders can be achieved. The following are examples of application scenarios for the compliance and risk management information sharing platform:

[0096] For example, when the market risk comprehensive assessment and analysis model identifies the price volatility weight as the highest among the price risk indicators, it indicates that price volatility is the most critical risk factor to monitor. This result will be immediately fed back to the information sharing platform. Relevant departments on the platform can then adjust their electricity trading strategies accordingly, employing hedging, futures-spot integration, and other methods to mitigate price volatility risk. Simultaneously, other departments on the platform can also access information about current market price fluctuations, enabling them to intervene in external risks promptly and enhance their risk awareness and response capabilities.

[0097] When the market operation compliance comprehensive evaluation and analysis model identifies the safety accident incidence rate as having the highest weight value among safety production management indicators, it indicates that the safety accident incidence rate is the compliance factor most in need of improvement. This result will be immediately fed back to the information sharing platform. Relevant departments on the platform will receive immediate alerts and can use this information to analyze the causes and impacts of safety accidents, formulate and implement corresponding safety measures and training plans, improve safety production levels and awareness, and thus optimize the management of internal operational issues within the operating organization. Simultaneously, other departments on the platform can also understand the current safety production status, adjust their current operations in a timely manner, prevent further safety accidents, and strengthen internal collaboration between departments.

Claims

1. A method of managing the operational risks and compliance analysis of an electricity market, characterized in that The method comprises the following steps: Step 1: establishing a market risk comprehensive evaluation analysis model; Step 2: establishing a market operation compliance comprehensive evaluation analysis model; Step 3: establishing a compliance and risk management information sharing platform; The step 1 specifically comprises: establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system which comprehensively reflects the power market risk, and distinguishing the index layer which influences the power market risk into a first-level index and a second-level index; In the evaluation, first need to index on the original value of the score, that is, the same trend, generally is the reverse index and moderate index into a positive index, get ; The reverse index positive formula is: wherein: x ij represents the jth secondary indicator in the ith primary indicator; y ij represents the positive indicator after the indicator processing; The moderate index positive formula is: In the formula, k is a processing constant; A comparison matrix is constructed to average the values of each indicator As the final score, we get: wherein: A ij is a comparison matrix, is the average of the scores obtained by comparing the indicator with the indicator factor; i represents the first-level indicator, and j represents the second-level indicator, = 0 indicates that the indicator j is more important than the indicator i; = 0.5 indicates that the indicator j and the indicator i are equally important; = 1 indicates that the indicator i is more important than the indicator j; Constructing judgment matrix, comparing matrix A ij Constructing matrix , and performing row-by-row summation, s represents the summation value; wherein, U ij is the judgment matrix, n is the dimension of the matrix, u ij is the value of the i-th row and the j-th column in the judgment matrix U ij , i=1,2,3,…,n, j=1,2,3,…,n; In the formula: s is the mean score obtained by comparing the indicator factors. i To compare matrix A ij The i-th row The lines and s min For all s i The minimum value in, s max For all s i The maximum value in; The constraint condition is: where s is the sum of the elements in the ith row of the comparison matrix A i where s is the sum of the elements in the ith row of the comparison matrix A ij where s is the sum of the elements in the ith row of the comparison matrix A where s is the sum of the elements in the ith row of the comparison matrix A j where s is the sum of the elements in the ith row of the comparison matrix A ij where s is the sum of the elements in the ith row of the comparison matrix A where s is the sum of the elements in the ith row of the comparison matrix A where s is the sum of the elements in Judgment Matrix In satisfy: where: u ii and u jj are the main diagonal elements of the judgment matrix U ij and u ji is the value of the judgment matrix U ij in the i-th column of the j-th row. Available weight feature vector For: In the formula: is the weight vector of each index layer, and the element is the weight coefficient of the secondary index under the current primary index, and is in the form of: , The calculation method is as follows: ； where: u ij is the value in the ith row and jth column of the matrix U ij , n is the dimension of the matrix, i is the row number of U ij , j is the column number of U ij , i = 1, 2, 3,..., n, j = 1, 2, 3,..., n.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the method further comprises: The step 2 specifically comprises: firstly, various behavior data of the electricity market need to be collected, including the information disclosure frequency of the operating agency, the punctuality rate of the regular report, the accuracy rate of the report content, the disclosure time of the major event, the disclosure time of the governance document of the operating agency, and the frequency of rule making and updating; the data is processed through step 1 to obtain the corresponding , and the compliance indicators that need to be focused on are identified according to the weight coefficient result .

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the method further comprises: The step 3 specifically comprises: When the market risk comprehensive evaluation analysis model identifies a certain secondary indicator Bi, i = 1, 2, 3…, there is a significant , i, j, k = 1, 2, 3…, the risk weight value is higher than , i, j, k = 1, 2, 3…, then it means that Cij is the risk prompt that needs to be paid attention to under the current secondary indicator Bi, and this result will also be fed back to the information sharing platform of the market operation agency.

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