Methods, devices, equipment and media for water resource allocation planning based on adaptive land use and climate change

Abstract

The embodiments of the present application disclose a method, device, equipment, and medium for water resource allocation planning that is adaptive to land use and climate change. The method includes: acquiring data, constructing a distributed water resource simulation and allocation model, and performing hydrological simulation and parameter calibration on a set area based on hydrological and meteorological data; predicting the future evolution and range of water resources in the basin based on climate model outputs and land use change scenarios under different future emission scenarios; conducting water demand forecast analysis for different industries in future planning years; performing water resource allocation analysis and calculation based on the distributed water resource simulation and allocation model according to the evolution of water resources under different future emission scenarios and the water demand forecast results for different industries; constructing a water resource allocation adaptive controller to output a water resource allocation planning scheme while meeting the water resource allocation planning objectives. The present application can provide a more scientific basis for water resource decision-making in response to future changing conditions.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to a method, device, equipment and medium for water resource allocation planning that is adaptive to land use and climate change, and belongs to the technical field of climate change and water resource allocation. Background Art

[0002] Climate change has accelerated the global water cycle, causing changes in the spatiotemporal pattern of water resources. At the same time, human activities, especially changes in land use, have changed the characteristics of the underlying surface, affecting the process of runoff generation and convergence in the basin, further affecting the spatiotemporal distribution of regional water resources, and bringing challenges to the water use for economic and social development and ecological and environmental protection in the basin. Water resources allocation planning is the process of orderly arranging and utilizing water resources in a region or basin. It is an important means to achieve the rational utilization and efficient allocation of water resources and ensure that the needs of economic and social development and ecological and environmental protection are met. Carrying out water resources allocation planning under land use and climate change conditions is of great significance for promoting the sustainable use of water resources, reducing water supply risks, and improving water resources security.

[0003] According to literature research, traditional water resource allocation planning is generally based on historical hydrological data, water demand forecasts for the planned horizontal year, and water supply project conditions in the study area. Water resource supply and demand balance analysis is performed through simulation models or optimization models to obtain working condition analysis results that meet the requirements of water supply guarantee rate. Its essence is based on supply and demand analysis under steady-state hydrological conditions that have occurred. However, under the influence of land use and climate change conditions, the water resource system is a complex and dynamically changing non-steady-state system. There is great uncertainty in the evolution of its internal elements. This uncertainty is not only reflected in hydrological supply, but also in water demand conditions, engineering construction and operation, etc. Traditional studies mostly consider the hydrological response under the influence of land use and climate change conditions, but rarely consider the adaptive water resource allocation strategy under the non-steady-state conditions of hydrological processes caused by the changing environment in water resource allocation planning. It belongs to static water resource allocation planning and lacks dynamic adaptive characteristics, which makes it difficult for water resource allocation planning to better respond to the rapid changes in the needs of sustainable economic and social development and ecological and environmental protection. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to solve the above technical problems, the embodiments of the present application respectively provide a method, device, equipment, and medium for water resource allocation planning that is adaptive to land use and climate change, so as to further consider the impact of land use and climate change on the water cycle in the river basin, combine the water demand for regional economic and social development and ecological environmental protection, and improve the design of water resource allocation planning methods while fully considering the uncertainty of future water resource dynamic systems.

[0005] Other features and advantages of the present application will become apparent from the following detailed description, or may be learned in part by the practice of the present application.

[0006] According to one aspect of an embodiment of the present application, a method for water resource allocation planning based on adaptive land use and climate change is provided, wherein the method comprises:

[0007] Step 1, obtaining data, the data including basic geographic information data, underlying surface data, hydrological and meteorological data, water supply project data, social and economic indicator data, and water resources bulletin statistical data within the set area;

[0008] Step 2, constructing a distributed water resources simulation and allocation model, and performing hydrological simulation and parameter calibration on a set area based on the hydrological and meteorological data;

[0009] Step 3: predict the future evolution and range of water resources in the basin based on climate model outputs and land use change scenarios under different future emission scenarios;

[0010] Step 4, conducting a forecast analysis of water demand for different industries in the future planning year, wherein the water demand for different industries includes urban living water demand, rural living water demand, urban production water demand, and rural production water demand;

[0011] Step 5: According to the evolution of water resources under different emission scenarios in the future and the water demand forecast results of different industries, water resources allocation analysis and calculation are carried out based on the distributed water resources simulation and allocation model;

[0012] Step 6, set the water resource allocation planning target, build a water resource allocation adaptive controller, and repeat steps 4 and 5 when the water resource allocation planning target is not met. When the water resource allocation planning target is met, output the water resource allocation planning scheme.

[0013] Furthermore, the basic geographic information data include digital elevation model data, river system data, and spatial distribution vector data of hydrological and meteorological stations; the underlying surface data include current land use data, soil type data, and future predicted land use data; the hydrological and meteorological data include flow observation data from a series of major hydrological stations in the study area, meteorological observation data from a series of meteorological stations, and climate forecast data for future different emission scenarios output by climate models; the water supply project data include water supply projects in a set area; the socio-economic indicator data include population data, gross national product data, and irrigated cultivated land data under current conditions; and the water resources bulletin statistical data include water supply data and water use data for a set area.

[0014] Furthermore, the distributed water resources simulation and allocation model is constructed, and hydrological simulation and parameter calibration are performed on a set area based on the hydrological and meteorological data, including:

[0015] Based on the digital elevation model and river system data, the sub-basins are divided, and the hydrological response units are divided according to the underlying land use and soil type data, and the natural water cycle simulation network structure of runoff simulation node-confluence simulation path is established;

[0016] Based on the water inflow-supply-intake-use-return relationship of flow simulation nodes, water supply project nodes, water use nodes, and river nodes, a social water cycle simulation network structure is added to the natural water cycle simulation network structure to construct a distributed water resource simulation and allocation natural-social water flow full path structure, and a distributed water resource simulation and allocation model is obtained;

[0017] Based on the historical meteorological data, the distributed water resources model is driven to simulate the historical natural-society coupled water cycle process and compared with the measured runoff. The efficiency coefficient, relative error and correlation coefficient are used as model evaluation indicators to calibrate the parameters.

[0018] The efficiency coefficient, relative error and correlation coefficient are calculated by the following formula:

[0019]

[0020] In the formula, NSE, PBIAS, and R are efficiency coefficient, relative error, and correlation coefficient, respectively. m,i ,Q s,i are the measured flow rate and the simulated flow rate, respectively. are the measured average flow and the simulated average flow respectively, i and n are the data sequence number and the total number of data respectively.

[0021] Furthermore, the prediction of the evolution and range of water resources in the basin in the future based on climate model outputs and land use change scenarios under different future emission scenarios includes:

[0022] The climate prediction results output by the global climate model are downscaled to a uniform resolution using the bilinear interpolation method. Based on the historical data of site observations, the quantile mapping method is used to correct the deviation of the meteorological elements output by the model, and the climate prediction data of different climate models under different emission scenarios in the future are obtained. The climate prediction data include precipitation, temperature, wind speed, humidity, and radiation.

[0023] Predict low-emission and high-emission land use data based on different future emission scenarios;

[0024] The distributed water resources simulation and allocation model calibrated in step 2 is driven by climate forecast data and land use data under different future emission scenarios to simulate the future water cycle response process of the basin and predict the future water resources evolution and change range of the basin under different scenarios.

[0025] Furthermore, the water demand forecast analysis for different industries in the future planning year includes:

[0026] Set the planning horizon year for water resources allocation planning;

[0027] Under the macro background of different emission scenarios in the future, combined with the regional economic and social development plan, based on the historical socio-economic indicator data of the set region, the economic indicator forecast analysis of the basic scenario of the set regional planning level year is carried out;

[0028] Based on the current water use analysis data from the Water Resources Bulletin, combined with the role of water prices, water conservation levels, and water conservation projects, the following formula is used to predict the economic and social water demand outside the river in the basic scenario of the planning level year:

[0029]

[0030] Where W urb ,W rur ,W ind ,W irr They are respectively urban living water demand, rural living water demand, urban production water demand, and rural production water demand, C urb ,C rur ,C ind ,C irr The net urban residents’ living water quota, rural residents’ water quota, urban production water quota, and rural production water quota are POP urb ,POP rur are respectively the population of urban residents and rural residents, GDP ind Adding value to industry, IRA irr is the irrigation area, α is the water-saving awareness coefficient, β urb ,β rur ,β ind ,β irr are the water price impact coefficients for urban residents’ water use, rural residents’ water use, industrial water use, and irrigation water use, respectively, and η urb ,η rur ,η irr ,η cal are respectively the leakage rate of urban water supply network, the leakage rate of rural water supply network, the leakage rate of field irrigation, and the leakage rate of irrigation canal system, γ ind is the industrial water reuse coefficient.

[0031] Furthermore, according to the evolution of water resources under different emission scenarios in the future and the water demand forecast results of different industries, water resources allocation analysis and calculation are performed based on the distributed water resources simulation and allocation model, including:

[0032] Based on the distributed water resources simulation and allocation model, the water inflow process predicted under future land use and climate change conditions is input into the river or water supply node, and the long series of water demand forecast results under the basic scenario are input into each off-river water use node in the distributed water resources simulation and allocation model. The off-river water use nodes include urban domestic water, rural domestic water, urban production water, and rural production water nodes. At the same time, the long series of ecological flow results are input into the ecological control node;

[0033] According to the construction situation of water conservancy projects, the input storage project regulates the reservoir capacity, water intake channels, the water transfer capacity of the water withdrawal channels, as well as the water supply priority of each water supply project node, the water intake priority of water use nodes, and the ecological water use priority, to carry out water resource allocation analysis and calculation in the planning level year.

[0034] Further, the water resource allocation planning target is set, and a water resource allocation adaptive controller is constructed. When the water resource allocation planning target is not met, steps 4 and 5 are repeated. When the water resource allocation planning target is met, a water resource allocation planning scheme is output, including:

[0035] The input-output benefit ratio is taken as the target, where the input includes the engineering input of newly built regulating reservoir capacity and water intake channel scale, and the output benefit includes social and economic benefits and ecological benefits. The social and economic benefits are based on the additional water supply for economic and social development, and the ecological benefits are based on the additional water supply for ecological environmental water demand.

[0036] Constructing a water resource configuration adaptive controller to automatically adjust water demand parameters and water supply parameters to adapt to changes in water resource situations under future land use and climate change conditions, wherein the control parameters of the water resource configuration adaptive controller include water demand regulation control parameters and water supply regulation control parameters, wherein the water demand regulation control parameters include water price regulation parameters, water-saving awareness parameters, and water-saving transformation parameters, and the water supply regulation control parameters include regulation and storage project parameters and water delivery project parameters;

[0037] According to the changes in water resources under different scenarios predicted by the water resources simulation allocation model driven by the climate model, the water resources allocation adaptive controller is used to automatically adjust the water supply and demand parameters and repeat steps 4 and 5, calculate the input-output benefit ratio until the requirements are met, and output the water resources allocation planning scheme;

[0038] The calculation formula of the input-output benefit ratio is:

[0039]

[0040] In the formula, ROI w is the input-output efficiency ratio, W s is the additional water supply, I d ,I sThey are investment in reducing water demand and investment in new water supply projects. To ensure the degree of water supply security.

[0041] According to one aspect of an embodiment of the present application, a water resource allocation planning device that is adaptive to land use and climate change is provided, the device comprising:

[0042] A data acquisition module is configured to acquire data, wherein the data includes basic geographic information data, underlying surface data, hydrological and meteorological data, water supply project data, social and economic indicator data, and water resources bulletin statistical data within a set area;

[0043] A model building module is configured to build a distributed water resource simulation and deployment model, and perform hydrological simulation and parameter calibration on a set area based on the hydrological and meteorological data;

[0044] The evolution prediction module is configured to predict the future evolution and range of water resources in the basin based on climate model outputs and land use change scenarios under different future emission scenarios;

[0045] A water demand forecasting module is configured to conduct forecasting analysis of water demand for different industries in future planning years, wherein the water demand for different industries includes urban living water demand, rural living water demand, urban production water demand, and rural production water demand;

[0046] The configuration analysis module is configured to perform water resource configuration analysis and calculation based on the distributed water resource simulation and allocation model according to the evolution of water resources in different future emission scenarios and the water demand forecast results of different industries;

[0047] The scheme configuration module is configured to set water resource allocation planning targets, construct a water resource allocation adaptive controller, and output a water resource allocation planning scheme when the water resource allocation planning targets are met.

[0048] According to one aspect of an embodiment of the present application, there is also provided an electronic device, including: a controller; and a memory for storing one or more programs, wherein when the one or more programs are executed by the controller, the controller implements the method as described above.

[0049] According to one aspect of an embodiment of the present application, a computer-readable storage medium is further provided, on which computer-readable instructions are stored. When the computer-readable instructions are executed by a processor of a computer, the computer executes the method as described above.

[0050] The technical solution provided in the embodiments of the present application has at least the following advantages:

[0051] 1. This application fully considers the impact of the uncertainty of hydrological variations caused by future land use and climate change on water resources allocation planning. Compared with the traditional water resources supply and demand analysis under the assumption of steady-state hydrological conditions, it can provide a more scientific basis for water resources decision-making under future changing conditions.

[0052] 2. This application fully considers the dynamics of the water resources system, including the different changes in hydrological supply, water demand conditions, and engineering construction, and proposes an adaptive dynamic configuration plan, which can more effectively propose adaptive strategies for the rapidly changing water needs for future economic and social sustainable development and ecological and environmental protection.

[0053] It is to be understood that the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory only and are not restrictive of the present application. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0054] The drawings herein are incorporated into the specification and constitute a part of the specification, showing embodiments consistent with the present application, and together with the specification, are used to explain the principles of the present application. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application, and for those of ordinary skill in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work. In the drawings:

[0055] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a method for water resource allocation planning for adaptive land use and climate change shown in an exemplary embodiment of the present application;

[0056] Figure 2 is a network diagram of a water resources simulation and allocation system in a research area shown in an exemplary embodiment of the present application;

[0057] Figure 3 is a comparison diagram of simulated and measured flow rates at Beibei Station in the study area shown in an exemplary embodiment of the present application;

[0058] Figure 4 is a graph showing the change in water resources in future years under the conditions of land use and climate change in the study area as shown in an exemplary embodiment of the present application;

[0059] Figure 5 It is a spatial distribution map of the supply and demand results of the adaptive water resources allocation in the planning horizontal year of the study area shown in an exemplary embodiment of the present application;

[0060] Figure 6 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a water resources allocation planning device for adaptive land use and climate change shown in an exemplary embodiment of the present application;

[0061] Figure 7 It is a structural diagram of a computer system of an electronic device shown in an exemplary embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0062] Here, exemplary embodiments will be described in detail, examples of which are shown in the accompanying drawings. When the following description refers to the drawings, unless otherwise indicated, the same numbers in different drawings represent the same or similar elements. The implementations described in the following exemplary embodiments do not represent all implementations consistent with the present application. Instead, they are only examples of devices and methods consistent with some aspects of the present application as detailed in the attached claims.

[0063] The block diagrams shown in the accompanying drawings are merely functional entities and do not necessarily correspond to physically independent entities. That is, these functional entities may be implemented in software form, or in one or more hardware modules or integrated circuits, or in different networks and / or processor devices and / or microcontroller devices.

[0064] The flowcharts shown in the accompanying drawings are only exemplary and do not necessarily include all the contents and operations / steps, nor must they be executed in the order described. For example, some operations / steps can be decomposed, and some operations / steps can be combined or partially combined, so the actual execution order may change according to actual conditions.

[0065] The term "multiple" as used in this application refers to two or more than two. "And / or" describes the relationship between related objects, indicating that three relationships can exist. For example, A and / or B can mean: A exists alone, A and B exist at the same time, and B exists alone. The character " / " generally indicates that the related objects are in an "or" relationship.

[0066] First, see Figure 1 , Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for water resource allocation planning for adaptive land use and climate change involved in this application. One aspect of an embodiment of this application provides a method for water resource allocation planning for adaptive land use and climate change, the method comprising the following steps:

[0067] Step 1: Data preparation: collect and organize basic geographic information data, underlying surface data, hydrological and meteorological data, water supply project data, socio-economic indicator data, and water resources bulletin statistical data within the set area.

[0068] The basic geographic information data collected and organized in the set area include digital elevation model data, river system data, and spatial distribution vector data of hydrological and meteorological stations; the underlying surface data include current land use data, soil type data, and future predicted land use data; the hydrological and meteorological data include flow observation data from the main hydrological station series in the set area, meteorological observation data from the meteorological station series, and climate forecast data for different future emission scenarios output by the climate model; the water supply project data include the main water supply projects in the set area, etc.; the socio-economic indicator data include population data under current conditions, gross national product data, and irrigated cultivated land area data, etc.; the water resources bulletin statistical data include water supply data and water use data in the study area, etc.

[0069] It should be noted that the set area described in this article is an area where water resources allocation is required. The embodiment of the present application takes the Jialing River Basin as an example of a set area, which is hereinafter referred to as the "study area".

[0070] For example, the Jialing River Basin is taken as the study area (set area), and the basic geographic information data in the study area are collected and sorted, including 30m resolution digital elevation model raster data, river system vector data, and spatial distribution vector data of hydrological and meteorological stations; the underlying surface data include the current 1km resolution land use data from 1980 to 2020, 1km resolution soil type data, and future predictions of different emission scenarios, including 1km land use data under low emission SSP1-2.6 and high emission SSP5-8.5 scenarios; the hydrological and meteorological data include the flow observation series of the six main hydrological stations in the study area from 1960 to 2015 data, meteorological observations of precipitation, temperature, wind speed, humidity, sunshine time and other data from 26 meteorological station chiefs from 1960 to 2015, and predicted precipitation, temperature, wind speed, humidity, radiation and other data under different emission scenarios in the future output by climate models; water supply project data include data on reservoirs, ponds and other water storage projects of different sizes in the study area, water diversion projects, water transfer projects, groundwater project wells, etc.; socio-economic indicator data include population data, gross national product data, and irrigated farmland data under the current base year conditions; water resources bulletin statistical data include water supply data of different types of projects in the study area in recent years, and water use data of different industries, etc.

[0071] Step 2: Construct a distributed water resources simulation and allocation model, and conduct hydrological simulation and parameter calibration for the study area based on hydrological and meteorological data.

[0072] The distributed water resources simulation and allocation model of the study area is constructed, and its core is the coupling of hydrological and water resources with real-time mutual feedback between distributed water cycle simulation and water resources allocation. First, the sub-basins are divided based on the digital elevation model, river system and other data, and the hydrological response units are divided according to the underlying land use and soil type data, and the natural water cycle simulation network structure of runoff simulation node-confluence simulation path is established; secondly, based on the water supply-water intake-water use-water withdrawal relationship of runoff simulation nodes, water supply project nodes, water use nodes, and river nodes, the social water cycle simulation network structure is added to the natural water cycle simulation network structure to construct a distributed water resources simulation allocation natural-social water flow full path structure; based on the historical meteorological data to drive the distributed water resources model, the historical natural-social coupled water cycle process is simulated and compared with the measured runoff, the efficiency coefficient, relative error and correlation coefficient are used as model evaluation indicators, and the model parameters are calibrated using the optimization algorithm.

[0073]

[0074] In the formula, NSE, PBIAS, and R are efficiency coefficient, relative error, and correlation coefficient, respectively. m,i ,Q s,i are the measured flow rate and the simulated flow rate, respectively. are the measured average flow and the simulated average flow respectively, i and n are the data sequence number and the total number of data respectively.

[0075] The embodiment of the present application takes the Jialing River Basin as an example to construct a distributed water resources simulation and allocation model for the study area, which is divided into 106 sub-basins, 636 hydrological response units, 124 water user nodes, 37 reservoir nodes, and 50 other water supply project nodes. The network diagram of the water resources simulation and allocation system in the study area is shown in Figure 2 Based on historical hydrological and meteorological data, the water cycle simulation and parameter calibration of the Jialing River Basin were carried out. The simulation results of the main stations are shown in Table 1. The comparison between the simulated and measured flow of the typical station Beibei Station is shown in Figure 3 .

[0076] Table 1 Water cycle simulation results of main sites

[0077]

[0078]

[0079] Step 3: Combine climate model outputs and land use change scenarios under different future emission scenarios to predict the future evolution of water resources in the basin and its range of change.

[0080] First, different emission scenarios in the future are selected, including low-emission SSP1-2.6 and high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The climate prediction results output by the global climate model are downscaled to a uniform resolution using the bilinear interpolation method. Based on the historical data of site observations, the quantile mapping method is used to correct the deviation of the meteorological elements output by the model, and the long series of data such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed, humidity, and radiation of different climate models under different emission scenarios in the future are obtained. Second, according to different emission scenarios in the future, the changes in land use under low and high emissions are predicted. Third, the climate prediction data and land use data under different emission scenarios in the future are driven by the distributed water resources simulation and allocation model calibrated in step 2 to simulate the future water cycle response process of the basin and predict the future water resources evolution and its range of change in the basin under different scenarios.

[0081] In the embodiment of the present application, the climate prediction results output by 12 global climate models are selected and downscaled and bias corrected, as shown in Table 2. Two emission scenarios of high emission and low emission in the future are selected to predict the evolution characteristics of water resources in the Jialing River Basin under different scenarios in the future. The range of changes in water resources in the Jialing River Basin under different emission scenarios is shown in Table 2. Figure 4 shown.

[0082] Table 2 Basic information of climate model

[0083] Serial number Mode Name Number of grids Serial number Mode Name Number of grids 1 ACCESS-CM2 144×192 7 MIROC6 128×256 2 CESM2 192×288 8 MPI-ESM1-2-HR 192×384 3 CanESM5 64×128 9 MPI-ESM1-2-LR 96×192 4 EC-Earth3 256×512 10 MRI-ESM2-0 160×320 5 FGOALS-g3 80×180 11 NorESM2-LM 96×144 6 IPSL-CM6A-LR 143×144 12 NorESM2-MM 192×288

[0084] Step 4: Carry out forecast analysis of water demand in different industries in future planning years, where the water demand of different industries includes living, production, and ecological water.

[0085] Carry out forecast analysis of water demand for different industries in the future planning year. First, set the planning year of the water resources allocation plan; second, under the macro background of different emission scenarios in the future, combined with the regional economic and social development plan, based on the historical socio-economic indicator data of the study area, carry out forecast analysis of economic indicators in the basic scenario of the planning year of the study area, including urban population, rural population, regional GDP and its tertiary industry structure, irrigation area, livestock breeding, etc. Third, carry out forecast of water demand for life, production, and ecology in the planning year. Based on the current water use analysis data of the water resources bulletin, combined with the role of water prices, water-saving levels, and water-saving projects, forecast of economic and social water demand outside the river channel for the basic scenario of the planning year is carried out, including four categories: urban life, urban production, rural life, and rural production. At the same time, Q90 and other methods are used to carry out analysis and calculation of ecological environment water demand in the river channel. The main calculation formula for forecasting water demand for economic and social development outside the river channel is as follows:

[0086]

[0087] Where W urb ,W rur ,Wind ,W irr They are respectively urban living water demand, rural living water demand, urban production water demand, and rural production water demand, C urb ,C rur ,C ind ,C irr The net urban residents’ living water quota, rural residents’ water quota, urban production water quota, and rural production water quota are POP urb ,POP rur are respectively the population of urban residents and rural residents, GDP ind Adding value to industry, IRA irr is the irrigation area, α is the water-saving awareness coefficient, β urb ,β rur ,β ind ,β irr are the water price impact coefficients for urban residents’ water use, rural residents’ water use, industrial water use, and irrigation water use, respectively, and η urb ,η rur ,η irr ,η cal are respectively the leakage rate of urban water supply network, the leakage rate of rural water supply network, the leakage rate of field irrigation, and the leakage rate of irrigation canal system, γ ind is the industrial water reuse coefficient.

[0088] The embodiment of the present application calculates the water demand for the future planning year 2035 in the study area. Under the macro background of different emission scenarios in the future, combined with the economic and social development plans of the urban and county levels in the Jialing River Basin, social and economic indicators are predicted. On this basis, the economic and social water demand outside the river channel for the basic scenario of the planning year 2035 is predicted, including four categories: urban life, urban production, rural life, and rural production. The Q90 and other methods are used to analyze and calculate the ecological environment water demand of the main control nodes in the river channel. The results of the water demand prediction for the basic scenario of the planning year 2035 are shown in Table 3.

[0089] Table 3 Water demand forecast results for the basic scenario in the planning year 2035 in the study area

[0090] Water resources level 3 area Town Life Rural life Town production Rural production total Main stream Guangyuan Zhaohua and above 3.1 0.63 1.71 3.44 8.88 Fujiang River 12.62 1.44 10.87 21.17 46.09 Qujiang 17.11 2.17 14.52 16.42 50.20 Main stream Guangyuan Zhaohua below 7.05 0.95 5.64 11.09 24.72 Basin Total 39.87 5.19 32.73 52.11 129.90

[0091] Step 5: According to the evolution of water resources under different emission scenarios in the future and the water demand forecast results of different industries, water resource allocation analysis and calculation are carried out based on the distributed water resource simulation and allocation model.

[0092] First, based on the distributed water resources simulation and allocation model, the water inflow process predicted under future land use and climate change conditions is input into the river or water supply node, and the long-series water demand forecast results under the basic scenario are input into the water use nodes outside the river in the water resources simulation and allocation network structure, including urban domestic water use, rural domestic water use, urban production water use, and rural production water use nodes. At the same time, the long-series ecological flow results are input into the ecological control node; secondly, according to the construction of water conservancy projects, the reservoir capacity of the water storage project regulation, water intake channels, and water withdrawal channel water transfer capacity, as well as the water supply priority of each water supply project node, the water intake priority of the water use node, the ecological water use priority, etc., are input to carry out water resources allocation analysis and calculation in the planning year.

[0093] This application example analyzes and calculates the water resource allocation in the study area in 2035, considering the addition of new water supply projects on the basis of the current projects. The results of the water resource allocation supply and demand analysis for the future basic scenario are shown in Table 4. The total water demand is 12.99 billion m 3 The total water supply is 11.171 billion m 3 , the water shortage is 1.818 billion m 3 .

[0094] Table 4 Results of water resources allocation scheme for future basic scenario (unit: 10,000 m 3 )

[0095] Water resources level 3 area Water requirement Water supply Water shortage Water shortage rate Main stream Guangyuan Zhaohua and above 8.88 6.73 2.14 24.14％ Fujiang River 46.09 39.28 6.82 14.79％ Qujiang 50.20 44.27 5.94 11.82％ Main stream Guangyuan Zhaohua below 24.72 21.44 3.29 13.29％ Basin Total 129.90 111.71 18.18 14.00％

[0096] Step 6: Set the water resource allocation planning target, build a water resource allocation adaptive controller, repeat steps 4 and 5 if the target is not met, until the target is met, and output the water resource allocation planning scheme.

[0097] First, the input-output benefit ratio is taken as the goal, where the input calculation includes the engineering input of the newly built regulating reservoir capacity and the scale of the water intake channel, and the input to reduce water demand includes the transformation of water-saving projects and the improvement of water-saving awareness; the output benefits include social and economic benefits and ecological benefits. The social and economic benefits are based on the additional water supply for economic and social development, and the ecological benefits are based on the additional water supply for ecological environmental water demand. Secondly, a water resource allocation adaptive controller is constructed to automatically adjust the water demand parameters and water supply parameters to adapt to the changes in the water resource situation under the conditions of future land use and climate change, and the required input-output benefit ratio has been achieved. The control parameters include water demand regulation control parameters and water supply regulation control parameters. The water demand regulation control parameters include water price regulation parameters, water-saving awareness parameters, and water-saving transformation parameters, and the water supply regulation control parameters include storage engineering parameters and water transfer engineering parameters. Third, based on the changes in water resources under different future scenarios predicted by the water resources simulation and allocation model driven by the climate model, an adaptive water resources allocation controller is used to automatically adjust the water supply and demand parameters and repeat steps 4 and 5. On the premise of meeting a certain level of water supply security, the input-output benefit ratio is calculated until the requirements are met, and the water resources allocation planning scheme is output.

[0098] The calculation formula of input-output benefit ratio is:

[0099]

[0100] In the formula, ROI w is the input-output efficiency ratio, W s is the additional water supply, I d ,I s They are investment in reducing water demand and investment in new water supply projects. To ensure the degree of water supply security.

[0101] This example considers the uncertainty of water resource changes under the conditions of future land use and climate change, selects the output results of any climate model to drive the distributed water resource allocation model, and simulates the water resource allocation in the Jialing River Basin by automatically adjusting the water demand control parameters and water supply control parameters. Under the condition that the water supply guarantee degree is not less than 90%, the input-output benefit ratio is not less than 150m 3 / 10,000 yuan, and the feasible solution that meets the conditions is output. The adaptive water resource allocation scheme is shown in Table 4. The total water demand under this scheme is 12.007 billion m 3 The total water supply is 10.954 billion m 3 , the water shortage is 1.054 billion m 3 The water supply security level is 91.2%, and the input-output efficiency ratio is 160m 3 / 10,000 yuan, the spatial distribution of the supply and demand results of adaptive water resources allocation in the study area in the planning level year is shown in Figure 5 shown.

[0102] Table 4 Results of adaptive water resources allocation scheme in the planning level year (Unit: 10,000 m 3 )

[0103] Water resources level 3 area Water requirement Water supply Water shortage Water shortage rate Main stream Guangyuan Zhaohua and above 8.24 7.63 0.61 7.40％ Fujiang River 42.97 38.77 4.2 9.77％ Qujiang 45.79 42.02 3.77 8.23％ Main stream Guangyuan Zhaohua below 23.08 21.12 1.96 8.49％ Basin Total 120.08 109.54 10.54 8.78％

[0104] See also Figure 6 , Figure 6 1 is a schematic diagram of a water resource allocation planning device for adaptive land use and climate change involved in the present application. One aspect of the embodiment of the present application also provides a water resource allocation planning device for adaptive land use and climate change, the device 600 comprising:

[0105] The data acquisition module 601 is configured to acquire data, including basic geographic information data, underlying surface data, hydrological and meteorological data, water supply project data, social and economic indicator data, and water resources bulletin statistical data within a set area;

[0106] The model building module 602 is configured to build a distributed water resource simulation and deployment model, and perform hydrological simulation and parameter calibration on a set area based on the hydrological and meteorological data;

[0107] The evolution prediction module 603 is configured to predict the future evolution and range of water resources in the basin based on the climate model output and land use change scenarios under different future emission scenarios;

[0108] The water demand forecasting module 604 is configured to perform water demand forecasting analysis for different industries in the future planning year, wherein the water demand for different industries includes urban living water demand, rural living water demand, urban production water demand, and rural production water demand;

[0109] The configuration analysis module 605 is configured to perform water resource configuration analysis and calculation based on the distributed water resource simulation and allocation model according to the water resource evolution of different emission scenarios in the future and the water demand forecast results of different industries;

[0110] The scheme configuration module 606 is configured to set water resource allocation planning targets, construct a water resource allocation adaptive controller, and output a water resource allocation planning scheme when the water resource allocation planning targets are met.

[0111] In an exemplary embodiment, the basic geographic information data includes digital elevation model data, river system data, and spatial distribution vector data of hydrological and meteorological stations; the underlying surface data includes current land use data, soil type data, and future predicted land use data; the hydrological and meteorological data include flow observation data from a series of major hydrological stations in the study area, meteorological observation data from a series of meteorological stations, and climate forecast data for different future emission scenarios output by climate models; the water supply project data include water supply projects in a set area; the socio-economic indicator data include population data, gross national product data, and irrigated cultivated land area data under current conditions; and the water resources bulletin statistical data include water supply data and water use data for a set area.

[0112] In an exemplary embodiment, the model building module is further configured to:

[0113] Based on the digital elevation model and river system data, the sub-basins are divided, and the hydrological response units are divided according to the underlying land use and soil type data, and the natural water cycle simulation network structure of runoff simulation node-confluence simulation path is established;

[0114] Based on the water inflow-supply-intake-use-return relationship of flow simulation nodes, water supply project nodes, water use nodes, and river nodes, a social water cycle simulation network structure is added to the natural water cycle simulation network structure to construct a distributed water resource simulation and allocation natural-social water flow full path structure, and a distributed water resource simulation and allocation model is obtained;

[0115] Based on the historical meteorological data, the distributed water resources model is driven to simulate the historical natural-society coupled water cycle process and compared with the measured runoff. The efficiency coefficient, relative error and correlation coefficient are used as model evaluation indicators to calibrate the parameters.

[0116] The efficiency coefficient, relative error and correlation coefficient are calculated by the following formula:

[0117]

[0118]

[0119] In the formula, NSE, PBIAS, and R are efficiency coefficient, relative error, and correlation coefficient, respectively. m,i ,Q s,i are the measured flow rate and the simulated flow rate, respectively. are the measured average flow and the simulated average flow respectively, i and n are the data sequence number and the total number of data respectively.

[0120] In an exemplary embodiment, the evolution prediction module is further configured to:

[0121] The climate prediction results output by the global climate model are downscaled to a uniform resolution using the bilinear interpolation method. Based on the historical data of site observations, the quantile mapping method is used to correct the deviation of the meteorological elements output by the model, and the climate prediction data of different climate models under different emission scenarios in the future are obtained. The climate prediction data include precipitation, temperature, wind speed, humidity, and radiation.

[0122] Predict low-emission and high-emission land use data based on different future emission scenarios;

[0123] The distributed water resources simulation and allocation model calibrated in step 2 is driven by climate forecast data and land use data under different future emission scenarios to simulate the future water cycle response process of the basin and predict the future water resources evolution and change range of the basin under different scenarios.

[0124] In an exemplary embodiment, the water demand prediction module is further configured to:

[0125] Set the planning horizon year for water resources allocation planning;

[0126] Under the macro background of different emission scenarios in the future, combined with the regional economic and social development plan, based on the historical socio-economic indicator data of the set region, the economic indicator forecast analysis of the basic scenario of the set regional planning level year is carried out;

[0127] Based on the current water use analysis data from the Water Resources Bulletin, combined with the role of water prices, water conservation levels, and water conservation projects, the following formula is used to predict the economic and social water demand outside the river in the basic scenario of the planning level year:

[0128]

[0129] Where W urb ,W rur ,W ind ,W irr They are respectively urban living water demand, rural living water demand, urban production water demand, and rural production water demand, C urb ,C rur ,C ind ,C irr The net urban residents’ living water quota, rural residents’ water quota, urban production water quota, and rural production water quota are POP urb ,POP rur are respectively the population of urban residents and rural residents, GDP ind Adding value to industry, IRA irr is the irrigation area, α is the water-saving awareness coefficient, β urb ,β rur ,β ind ,β irrare the water price impact coefficients for urban residents’ water use, rural residents’ water use, industrial water use, and irrigation water use, respectively, and η urb ,η rur ,η irr ,η cal are respectively the leakage rate of urban water supply network, the leakage rate of rural water supply network, the leakage rate of field irrigation, and the leakage rate of irrigation canal system, γ ind is the industrial water reuse coefficient.

[0130] In an exemplary embodiment, the configuration analysis module is further configured to:

[0131] Based on the distributed water resources simulation and allocation model, the water inflow process predicted under future land use and climate change conditions is input into the river or water supply node, and the long series of water demand forecast results under the basic scenario are input into each off-river water use node in the distributed water resources simulation and allocation model. The off-river water use nodes include urban domestic water, rural domestic water, urban production water, and rural production water nodes. At the same time, the long series of ecological flow results are input into the ecological control node;

[0132] According to the construction situation of water conservancy projects, the input storage project regulates the reservoir capacity, water intake channels, the water transfer capacity of the water withdrawal channels, as well as the water supply priority of each water supply project node, the water intake priority of water use nodes, and the ecological water use priority, to carry out water resource allocation analysis and calculation in the planning level year.

[0133] In an exemplary embodiment, the solution configuration module is further configured to:

[0134] The input-output benefit ratio is taken as the target, where the input includes the engineering input of newly built regulating reservoir capacity and water intake channel scale, and the output benefit includes social and economic benefits and ecological benefits. The social and economic benefits are based on the additional water supply for economic and social development, and the ecological benefits are based on the additional water supply for ecological environmental water demand.

[0135] Constructing a water resource configuration adaptive controller to automatically adjust water demand parameters and water supply parameters to adapt to changes in water resource situations under future land use and climate change conditions, wherein the control parameters of the water resource configuration adaptive controller include water demand regulation control parameters and water supply regulation control parameters, wherein the water demand regulation control parameters include water price regulation parameters, water-saving awareness parameters, and water-saving transformation parameters, and the water supply regulation control parameters include regulation and storage project parameters and water delivery project parameters;

[0136] According to the changes in water resources under different scenarios predicted by the water resources simulation and allocation model driven by the climate model, the water resources allocation adaptive controller is used to automatically adjust the water supply and demand parameters to repeatedly run the water demand prediction module and the configuration analysis module, calculate the input-output benefit ratio until it meets the requirements, and output the water resources allocation planning scheme;

[0137] The calculation formula of the input-output benefit ratio is:

[0138]

[0139] In the formula, ROI w is the input-output efficiency ratio, W s is the additional water supply, I d ,I s They are investment in reducing water demand and investment in new water supply projects. To ensure the degree of water supply security.

[0140] Another aspect of the present application provides an electronic device, including: a controller; and a memory for storing one or more programs, which, when executed by the controller, executes the methods described in the above embodiments.

[0141] See also Figure 7 , Figure 7 1 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a computer system of an electronic device shown in an exemplary embodiment of the present application, which shows a schematic diagram of the structure of a computer system of an electronic device suitable for implementing an embodiment of the present application.

[0142] It should be noted that Figure 7 The computer system 700 of the electronic device shown is only an example and should not bring any limitation to the functions and scope of use of the embodiments of the present application.

[0143] like Figure 7 As shown, the computer system 700 includes a central processing unit (CPU) 701, which can perform various appropriate actions and processes according to the program stored in the read-only memory (ROM) 702 or the program loaded from the storage part 709 to the random access memory (RAM) 703, such as executing the method in the above embodiment. In the RAM 703, various programs and data required for system operation are also stored. The CPU 701, ROM 702 and RAM 703 are connected to each other through a bus 704. An input / output (I / O) interface 905 is also connected to the bus 704.

[0144] The following components are connected to the I / O interface 705: an input section 706 including a keyboard, a mouse, etc.; an output section 707 including a cathode ray tube (CRT), a liquid crystal display (LCD), etc., and a speaker, etc.; a storage section 709 including a hard disk, etc.; and a communication section 709 including a network interface card such as a LAN (Local Area Network) card, a modem, etc. The communication section 709 performs communication processing via a network such as the Internet. A drive 710 is also connected to the I / O interface 705 as needed. A removable medium 711, such as a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a magneto-optical disk, a semiconductor memory, etc., is installed on the drive 710 as needed so that a computer program read therefrom is installed into the storage section 709 as needed.

[0145] In particular, according to an embodiment of the present application, the process described above with reference to the flowchart can be implemented as a computer software program. For example, an embodiment of the present application includes a computer program product, which includes a computer program carried on a computer-readable medium, and the computer program includes a computer program for executing the method shown in the flowchart. In such an embodiment, the computer program can be downloaded and installed from a network through a communication section 709, and / or installed from a removable medium 711. When the computer program is executed by a central processing unit (CPU) 701, various functions defined in the system of the present application are executed.

[0146] It should be noted that the computer-readable medium shown in the embodiment of the present application can be a computer-readable signal medium or a computer-readable storage medium or any combination of the above two. The computer-readable storage medium can be, for example, an electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, device or device, or any combination of the above. More specific examples of computer-readable storage media can include, but are not limited to: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM), a flash memory, an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the above. In the present application, a computer-readable storage medium can be any tangible medium containing or storing a program, which can be used by an instruction execution system, device or device or used in combination with it. In the present application, a computer-readable signal medium can include a data signal propagated in a baseband or as a part of a carrier wave, wherein a computer-readable computer program is carried. Such propagated data signals may take a variety of forms, including but not limited to electromagnetic signals, optical signals, or any suitable combination of the above. Computer-readable signal media may also be any computer-readable medium other than computer-readable storage media, which may send, propagate, or transmit programs for use by or in conjunction with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device. The computer program contained on the computer-readable medium may be transmitted using any appropriate medium, including but not limited to: wireless, wired, etc., or any suitable combination of the above.

[0147] The flowchart and block diagram in the accompanying drawings illustrate the possible architecture, functions and operations of the system, method and computer program product according to various embodiments of the present application. Wherein, each box in the flowchart or block diagram can represent a module, a program segment, or a part of the code, and the above-mentioned module, program segment, or a part of the code contains one or more executable instructions for realizing the specified logical function. It should also be noted that in some alternative implementations, the functions marked in the box can also occur in a different order than the order marked in the accompanying drawings. For example, two boxes represented in succession can actually be executed substantially in parallel, and they can sometimes be executed in the opposite order, depending on the functions involved. It should also be noted that each box in the block diagram or flowchart, and the combination of boxes in the block diagram or flowchart can be implemented with a dedicated hardware-based system that performs a specified function or operation, or can be implemented with a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions.

[0148] The units or modules involved in the embodiments described in this application may be implemented by software or hardware, and the units described may also be set in a processor. The names of these units do not, in some cases, constitute limitations on the units themselves.

[0149] Another aspect of the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements a method for water resource allocation planning for adaptive land use and climate change, namely Figure 1 The steps shown are consistent with the method steps executed by the controller in the electronic device, and are not described in detail here. The computer-readable storage medium may be included in the electronic device described in the above embodiment, or may exist independently without being assembled into the electronic device.

[0150] Another aspect of the present application provides a computer program product or a computer program, the computer program product or the computer program comprising computer instructions, the computer instructions being stored in a computer-readable storage medium. A processor of a computer device reads the computer instructions from the computer-readable storage medium, and the processor executes the computer instructions, so that the computer device executes the method for adaptive land use and climate change water resource allocation planning provided in the above-mentioned various embodiments, namely Figure 1 The steps shown are consistent with the method steps executed by the controller in the electronic device and are not described in detail here.

[0151] The above content is only a preferred exemplary embodiment of the present application and is not intended to limit the implementation scheme of the present application. A person skilled in the art can easily make corresponding changes or modifications based on the main concept and spirit of the present application. Therefore, the scope of protection of the present application shall be based on the scope of protection required by the claims.

Claims

1. A water resources allocation planning method for adaptive land use and climate change, characterized in that: The method comprises: Step 1, obtaining data, the data including basic geographic information data, underlying surface data, hydrological and meteorological data, water supply project data, social and economic indicator data and water resources bulletin statistical data within the set area; Step 2, constructing a distributed water resources simulation and allocation model, and performing hydrological simulation and parameter calibration on a set area based on the hydrological and meteorological data; Step 3: predict the future evolution and range of water resources in the basin based on climate model outputs and land use change scenarios under different future emission scenarios; Step 4, conducting a forecast analysis of water demand for different industries in the future planning year, wherein the water demand for different industries includes urban living water demand, rural living water demand, urban production water demand and / or rural production water demand; Step 5: According to the evolution of water resources under different emission scenarios in the future and the water demand forecast results of different industries, water resources allocation analysis and calculation are carried out based on the distributed water resources simulation and allocation model; Step 6, setting a water resource allocation planning target, constructing a water resource allocation adaptive controller, repeating steps 4 and 5 when the water resource allocation planning target is not met, and outputting a water resource allocation planning scheme when the water resource allocation planning target is met; The step of setting a water resource allocation planning target, constructing a water resource allocation adaptive controller, and repeating steps 4 and 5 when the water resource allocation planning target is not met, and outputting a water resource allocation planning scheme when the water resource allocation planning target is met, includes: The input-output benefit ratio is taken as the target, where the input includes the engineering input of newly built regulating reservoir capacity and / or water intake channel scale, and the output benefit includes social and economic benefits and ecological benefits. The social and economic benefits are based on the additional water supply for economic and social development, and the ecological benefits are based on the additional water supply for ecological environmental water demand. Constructing a water resource configuration adaptive controller to automatically adjust water demand parameters and water supply parameters to adapt to changes in water resource situations under future land use and climate change conditions, wherein the control parameters of the water resource configuration adaptive controller include water demand regulation control parameters and water supply regulation control parameters, wherein the water demand regulation control parameters include water price regulation parameters, water-saving awareness parameters and / or water-saving transformation parameters, and the water supply regulation control parameters include regulation and storage project parameters and / or water transfer project parameters; According to the changes in water resources under different scenarios predicted by the water resources simulation allocation model driven by the climate model, the water resources allocation adaptive controller is used to automatically adjust the water supply and demand parameters and repeat steps 4 and 5, calculate the input-output benefit ratio until the requirements are met, and output the water resources allocation planning scheme; The calculation formula of the input-output benefit ratio is: In the formula, ROI w is the input-output efficiency ratio, W s is the additional water supply, I d ,I s They are investment in reducing water demand and investment in new water supply projects. To ensure the degree of water supply security.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The basic geographic information data include digital elevation model data, river system data and spatial distribution vector data of hydrological and meteorological stations; the underlying surface data include current land use data, soil type data and future predicted land use data; the hydrological and meteorological data include flow observation data from a series of main hydrological stations in the study area, meteorological observation data from a series of meteorological stations and climate forecast data for different future emission scenarios output by climate models; the water supply project data include water supply projects in a set area; the socio-economic indicator data include population data, gross national product data and irrigated farmland data under current conditions; the water resources bulletin statistical data include water supply data and water use data for a set area.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The distributed water resources simulation and deployment model is constructed to perform hydrological simulation and parameter calibration on a set area based on the hydrological and meteorological data, including: Based on the digital elevation model and river system data, the sub-basins are divided, and the hydrological response units are divided according to the underlying land use and soil type data, and the natural water cycle simulation network structure of runoff simulation node-confluence simulation path is established; Based on the water inflow-supply-intake-use-return relationship of flow simulation nodes, water supply project nodes, water use nodes and river nodes, the social water cycle simulation network structure is added to the natural water cycle simulation network structure, and the distributed water resources simulation and allocation of the natural-social water flow full path structure is constructed to obtain the distributed water resources simulation and allocation model. Based on the historical meteorological data, the distributed water resources model is driven to simulate the historical natural-society coupled water cycle process and compared with the measured runoff. The efficiency coefficient, relative error and correlation coefficient are used as model evaluation indicators to calibrate the parameters. The efficiency coefficient, relative error and correlation coefficient are calculated by the following formula: In the formula, NSE, PBIAS, and R are efficiency coefficient, relative error, and correlation coefficient, respectively. m,i ,Q s,i are the measured flow rate and the simulated flow rate, respectively. are the measured average flow and the simulated average flow respectively, i and n are the data sequence number and the total number of data respectively.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The above-mentioned prediction of the evolution and range of water resources in the basin in the future based on the climate model output and land use change scenarios under different future emission scenarios includes: The climate prediction results output by the global climate model are downscaled to a uniform resolution using the bilinear interpolation method. Based on the historical data of site observations, the quantile mapping method is used to correct the deviation of the meteorological elements output by the model, and the climate prediction data of different climate models under different emission scenarios in the future are obtained. The climate prediction data include precipitation, temperature, wind speed, humidity and radiation. Project low-emission and high-emission land use data based on different future emission scenarios; The distributed water resources simulation and allocation model calibrated in step 2 is driven by climate prediction data and land use data under different future emission scenarios to simulate the future water cycle response process of the basin and predict the future water resources evolution and change range of the basin under different scenarios.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The water demand forecast analysis for different industries in the future planning level year includes: Set the planning horizon year for water resources allocation planning; Under the macro background of different emission scenarios in the future, combined with the regional economic and social development plan, based on the historical socio-economic indicator data of the set region, the economic indicator forecast analysis of the basic scenario of the set regional planning level year is carried out; Based on the current water use analysis data from the Water Resources Bulletin, combined with the role of water prices, water conservation levels and water conservation projects, the following formula is used to predict the economic and social water demand outside the river in the basic scenario of the planning level year: Where W urb ,W rur ,W ind ,W irr They are respectively urban living water demand, rural living water demand, urban production water demand, and rural production water demand, C urb ,C rur ,C ind ,C irr The net urban residents’ living water quota, rural residents’ water quota, urban production water quota, and rural production water quota are POP urb ,POP rur are respectively the population of urban residents and rural residents, GDP ind Adding value to industry, IRA irr is the irrigation area, α is the water-saving awareness coefficient, β urb ,β rur ,β ind ,β irr are the water price impact coefficients for urban residents’ water use, rural residents’ water use, industrial water use, and irrigation water use, respectively, and η urb ,η rur ,η irr ,η cal are respectively the leakage rate of urban water supply network, the leakage rate of rural water supply network, the leakage rate of field irrigation, and the leakage rate of irrigation canal system, γ ind is the industrial water reuse coefficient.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that According to the evolution of water resources under different emission scenarios in the future and the water demand forecast results of different industries, water resources allocation analysis and calculation are carried out based on the distributed water resources simulation and allocation model, including: Based on the distributed water resources simulation and allocation model, the water inflow process predicted under future land use and climate change conditions is input into the river or water supply node, and the long series of water demand forecast results under the basic scenario are input into each off-river water use node in the distributed water resources simulation and allocation model. The off-river water use nodes include urban domestic water, rural domestic water, urban production water and / or rural production water nodes. At the same time, the long series of ecological flow results are input into the ecological control node; According to the construction situation of water conservancy projects, the water storage project is input to regulate the reservoir capacity, the water intake channel and the water discharge channel water transfer capacity, as well as the water supply priority of each water supply project node, the water intake priority of the water use node and the ecological water use priority, to carry out water resource allocation analysis and calculation in the planning level year.

7. A water resources allocation planning device that is adaptive to land use and climate change, characterized in that: The device comprises: A data acquisition module is configured to acquire data, wherein the data includes basic geographic information data, underlying surface data, hydrological and meteorological data, water supply project data, social and economic indicator data, and water resources bulletin statistical data within a set area; A model building module is configured to build a distributed water resources simulation and deployment model, and perform hydrological simulation and parameter calibration on a set area based on the hydrological and meteorological data; The evolution prediction module is configured to predict the future evolution and range of water resources in the basin based on climate model outputs and land use change scenarios under different future emission scenarios; A water demand forecasting module is configured to perform water demand forecasting analysis for different industries in future planning years, wherein the water demand for different industries includes urban living water demand, rural living water demand, urban production water demand and / or rural production water demand; The configuration analysis module is configured to perform water resource configuration analysis and calculation based on the distributed water resource simulation and allocation model according to the evolution of water resources in different future emission scenarios and the water demand forecast results of different industries; A scheme configuration module is configured to set a water resource allocation planning target, construct a water resource allocation adaptive controller, and output a water resource allocation planning scheme when the water resource allocation planning target is met; The scheme configuration module is further configured as follows: The input-output benefit ratio is taken as the target, where the input includes the engineering input of newly built regulating reservoir capacity and / or water intake channel scale, and the output benefit includes social and economic benefits and ecological benefits. The social and economic benefits are based on the additional water supply for economic and social development, and the ecological benefits are based on the additional water supply for ecological environmental water demand. Constructing a water resource configuration adaptive controller to automatically adjust water demand parameters and water supply parameters to adapt to changes in water resource situations under future land use and climate change conditions, wherein the control parameters of the water resource configuration adaptive controller include water demand regulation control parameters and water supply regulation control parameters, wherein the water demand regulation control parameters include water price regulation parameters, water-saving awareness parameters and / or water-saving transformation parameters, and the water supply regulation control parameters include regulation and storage project parameters and / or water transfer project parameters; According to the changes in water resources under different scenarios predicted by the water resources simulation and allocation model driven by the climate model, the water resources allocation adaptive controller is used to automatically adjust the water supply and demand parameters to repeatedly run the water demand prediction module and the configuration analysis module, calculate the input-output benefit ratio until it meets the requirements, and output the water resources allocation planning scheme; The calculation formula of the input-output benefit ratio is: In the formula, ROI w is the input-output efficiency ratio, W s is the additional water supply, I d ,I s They are investment in reducing water demand and investment in new water supply projects. To ensure the degree of water supply security.

8. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: Controller; A memory for storing one or more programs, which, when executed by the controller, enables the controller to implement the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

9. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: Computer-readable instructions are stored thereon, and when the computer-readable instructions are executed by a processor of a computer, the computer is caused to execute the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

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