Method, device, equipment and medium for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population

Abstract

The present application discloses a method, device, equipment and medium for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population. The method comprises: obtaining the monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitation information of the candidate population in the target area, as well as the demographic indicators of the target area; determining the initial number of the target category population in the target area; inputting the demographic indicators and the initial number of the target category population into a pre-constructed monkeypox development trend prediction model to obtain the development trend prediction result of monkeypox in the population in the target area, and the development trend prediction result includes the number changes of the target category population in the historical time, the first preset time period and the second preset time period respectively. According to the embodiment of the present application, the development trend of monkeypox in the population in the target area is analyzed based on the model, which can provide more accurate data support and guidance for the actual prevention and control of the monkeypox epidemic.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application belongs to the field of computer technology, and in particular, relates to a method, device, equipment and medium for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population. Background Art

[0002] The World Health Organization (WHO, 2023) describes monkeypox as an animal-borne disease similar to smallpox. In addition to rodents transmitting to humans, monkeypox may also be transmitted between humans. In order to effectively control the monkeypox epidemic, research is needed to evaluate accurate monkeypox-related data and development patterns in order to analyze and adopt targeted prevention and control strategies and measures, which cannot be achieved by simply relying on published data.

[0003] However, the current methods for predicting the development and spread of monkeypox epidemics simulate the spread dynamics of monkeypox in human and non-human populations, without considering that the transmission of rodents to humans is negligible and that local epidemics occur only among humans. Therefore, the existing methods for predicting the trend of monkeypox epidemics are of low reference value. Summary of the invention

[0004] The embodiments of the present application provide a method, device, equipment and medium for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population, so as to at least solve the problem of low reference value of monkeypox epidemic trend prediction in related technologies.

[0005] In a first aspect, the present application provides a method for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population, comprising:

[0006] Obtaining monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information, and vaccine hesitancy information of candidate populations in a target area, as well as demographic indicators of the target area, wherein the vaccination history information includes whether monkeypox vaccine and / or smallpox vaccine have been vaccinated, and the vaccine hesitancy information is whether the candidate population is willing to receive monkeypox vaccine within a first preset time period or a second preset time period;

[0007] Determining an initial number of people in the target category in the target area based on the monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information, and vaccine hesitancy information;

[0008] The demographic indicators and the initial number of people in the target category are input into a pre-constructed monkeypox development trend prediction model to obtain a development trend prediction result of monkeypox in the population in the target area, wherein the development trend prediction result includes the changes in the number of people in the target category in historical time, a first preset time period, and a second preset time period.

[0009] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a device for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population, the device comprising:

[0010] An acquisition module is used to acquire monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitancy information of candidate populations in a target area, as well as demographic indicators of the target area, wherein the vaccination history information includes whether monkeypox vaccine and / or smallpox vaccine have been vaccinated, and the vaccine hesitancy information is whether the candidate population is willing to receive monkeypox vaccine within a first preset time period or a second preset time period;

[0011] A determination module, for determining an initial number of people in a target category in a target area based on the monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information, and vaccine hesitancy information;

[0012] An input module is used to input the demographic indicators and the initial number of people in the target category into a pre-constructed monkeypox development trend prediction model to obtain a development trend prediction result of monkeypox in the population in the target area, wherein the development trend prediction result includes the changes in the number of people in the target category in historical time, a first preset time period, and a second preset time period.

[0013] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides an electronic device, comprising: a processor and a memory storing computer program instructions; when the processor executes the computer program instructions, the steps of the method for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population as described in any one of the embodiments of the first aspect are implemented.

[0014] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium having computer program instructions stored thereon. When the computer program instructions are executed by a processor, the steps of the method for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population as described in any one of the embodiments of the first aspect are implemented.

[0015] The method, apparatus, device and medium for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population according to the embodiments of the present application determine the input data of a pre-constructed monkeypox development trend prediction model, i.e., the demographic indicators of the target area and the initial number of people in the target category, by obtaining the monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitation information of the candidate population in the target area; the model is no longer divided into rodent and human parts, but only the dynamic conversion occurring in the human population is considered, and the development trend of monkeypox in the population in the target area is analyzed based on the model and the corresponding transmission data is calculated to obtain the development trend prediction result, thereby providing more accurate data support and guidance for the actual prevention and control of the monkeypox epidemic. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0016] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the embodiments of the present application, the following is a brief introduction to the drawings required for use in the embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without any creative work.

[0017] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0018] Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the input of a monkeypox development trend prediction model provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0019] Figure 3A is a schematic diagram of predicting the development of monkeypox in historical time based on the first vaccination rate provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0020] Figure 3B is a schematic diagram of predicting the development of monkeypox within a first preset time period based on a second vaccination rate provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0021] Figure 3C is a schematic diagram of predicting the development of monkeypox within a second preset time period based on a third vaccination rate provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0022] Figure 4A is a schematic diagram of the development of monkeypox in susceptible individuals provided in the examples of the present application;

[0023] Figure 4B is a schematic diagram of the development of monkeypox in an exposed person provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0024] Figure 4C is a schematic diagram of the development of monkeypox in an infected person provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0025] Figure 4D is a schematic diagram of the development of monkeypox in a recovered patient provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0026] Figure 4E is a schematic diagram of the development of monkeypox in a vaccinee provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0027] Figure 5 It is a schematic diagram of the structure of a device for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0028] Figure 6 It is a structural schematic diagram of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present application.

[0029] Reference numerals:

[0030] The device 500 for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population includes an acquisition module 501, a determination module 502, an input module 503,

[0031] Electronic device 600 , processor 601 , memory 602 , communication interface 603 , bus 610 . DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0032] The features and exemplary embodiments of various aspects of the present application will be described in detail below. In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the present application clearer, the present application will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only intended to explain the present application, rather than to limit the present application. For those skilled in the art, the present application can be implemented without the need for some of these specific details. The following description of the embodiments is only to provide a better understanding of the present application by illustrating the examples of the present application.

[0033] It should be noted that, in this article, relational terms such as first and second, etc. are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or any other variants thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or device including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or device. In the absence of further restrictions, the elements defined by the statement "include..." do not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or device including the elements.

[0034] The frequency of monkeypox outbreaks and their expected size in communities are both increasing (Rimoin et al., 2010). The World Health Organization (WHO, 2023) describes monkeypox as a zoonotic disease similar to smallpox. The main symptom of monkeypox is a rash. In addition, there are symptoms such as fever, swollen lymph nodes, headache, and back pain. The main difference between the symptoms of monkeypox and smallpox is that smallpox does not cause lymphadenopathy, which is swollen lymph nodes (CDC, 2023b). In addition to rodent-to-human transmission, monkeypox can also be transmitted from person to person. Direct contact with the body fluids of infected animals can result in animal-to-human transmission. Skin-to-skin contact, including direct contact with rashes and scabs and direct contact during intimate contact, can result in human-to-human transmission.

[0035] The incubation period of monkeypox can range from 5 to 21 days, and patients may experience mild symptoms before a skin outbreak (WHO, 2023). In addition to preventing transmission from animals to humans, the best way to control this outbreak is through vaccination. Studies have shown that the smallpox vaccine is effective against monkeypox because it has similar characteristics to smallpox. Once a person is infected with monkeypox, they become immune after recovery. The clinical effectiveness of the monkeypox vaccine was shown to be approximately 85% in a study in Central Africa (Poland et al., 2022). However, the effectiveness of the vaccine should be combined with an effective vaccination rate to maximize its effect.

[0036] In order to effectively control the monkeypox epidemic, research is needed to evaluate accurate monkeypox-related data and development patterns in order to analyze and adopt targeted prevention and control strategies and measures. This cannot be achieved by simply relying on published data. However, the current means of predicting the development and spread of monkeypox epidemics simulates the spread dynamics of monkeypox in human and non-human populations, without considering that the transmission of rodents to humans is negligible, and local epidemics only occur among humans. Therefore, the existing methods for predicting the trend of monkeypox epidemics are of low reference value.

[0037] Based on the SIR epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick, more variables are added to the dynamic system by taking into account disease exposure, recovery, isolation and vaccination. In the COVID-19 pandemic, the SEIR model was used to simulate the spread of the epidemic in various regions. By analyzing the stability and reproduction number of the model, scholars have derived early prevention measures for the COVID-19 outbreak (Annas et al., 2020). Compared with COVID-19, monkeypox is a relatively less aggressive endemic epidemic and is transmitted between humans and animals (especially rodents). Previous studies applied the SIR model to simulate the transmission dynamics of monkeypox in human and non-human populations (Bhunu and Mushayabasa, 2011). It introduced the spread of monkeypox in the human population by using the transmission of animals to humans as a parameter in the SIR model.

[0038] In order to solve the problems of the related art, the embodiments of the present application provide a method, device, equipment and medium for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population.

[0039] The following, in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, describes in detail the method for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in the population provided by the embodiment of the present application through specific embodiments and their application scenarios.

[0040] Figure 1 FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method 100 for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population according to an embodiment of the present application. Figure 1As shown, the method 100 for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population may specifically include the following steps:

[0041] S101, obtaining monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitancy information of candidate populations in a target area, as well as demographic indicators of the target area, wherein the vaccination history information includes whether monkeypox vaccine and / or smallpox vaccine have been vaccinated, and the vaccine hesitancy information is whether the candidate population is willing to receive monkeypox vaccine within a first preset time period or a second preset time period;

[0042] S102, determining the initial number of people in the target category in the target area based on the monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitancy information;

[0043] S103, inputting the demographic indicators and the initial number of people in the target category into a pre-constructed monkeypox development trend prediction model to obtain a development trend prediction result of monkeypox in the population in the target area, wherein the development trend prediction result includes the number changes of people in the target category in historical time, in a first preset time period, and in a second preset time period.

[0044] Therefore, by obtaining the monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitancy information of the candidate population in the target area, the input data of the pre-constructed monkeypox development trend prediction model, namely the demographic indicators of the target area and the initial number of the target category population, is determined; the model is no longer divided into rodent and human parts, but only considers the dynamic transformations occurring within the human population, and uses the model as a basis to analyze the development trend of monkeypox within the population in the target area and calculate the corresponding transmission data to obtain the development trend prediction results, thereby providing more accurate data support and guidance for the actual prevention and control of the monkeypox epidemic.

[0045] The specific implementation methods of the above steps are introduced below.

[0046] In some embodiments, in S101, a questionnaire is collected from the candidate population in the target area to obtain the monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitation information of the candidate population, wherein the vaccination history information includes whether the monkeypox vaccine and / or smallpox vaccine have been vaccinated, and the vaccine hesitation information is whether the monkeypox vaccine is willing to be vaccinated within the first preset time period or the second preset time period. It should be noted that the embodiment of the present application is applied to the prediction of the development trend of monkeypox in the American population, that is, the target area is the United States, and the candidate population is the population within the scope of the questionnaire collection.

[0047] In specific implementation, the monkeypox infection history and current symptom information of the candidate population are collected to determine the current monkeypox infection rate; vaccination history information can include the current monkeypox vaccination information (vaccine brand and number of doses) of the candidate population, and whether they have been vaccinated with smallpox vaccine. In order to determine whether an individual has been vaccinated with smallpox, the birth year and place of origin of the candidate population can be collected and matched with the vaccination policies of different states in the United States. In this way, rather than simply asking about the smallpox vaccination status, memory bias can be reduced. In addition, by comparing whether the vaccination date of individuals in the candidate population occurred before or after they were infected with monkeypox. Although monkeypox patients may gain lifelong immunity after recovery, it is still necessary to cover this possibility.

[0048] In specific implementation, the prediction of the development trend of monkeypox in the population can include three stages: historical time, first preset time period and second preset time period. Optionally, six months is determined as the preset period, then the first preset time period can be within the next six months, and the second preset time period can be after the next six months. In other words, it is divided into three stages: before the questionnaire collection, within six months and after six months, which correspond to the different times when individuals in the candidate population are vaccinated or hope to be vaccinated with monkeypox vaccine.

[0049] Furthermore, in view of the data on monkeypox vaccination hesitation among the candidate population, we obtained whether the candidate population was willing to receive the monkeypox vaccine within the first preset time period or the second preset time period (i.e., willingness to receive the vaccine within the next six months or in the future), as well as the factors that influenced their vaccination decision and ranked these factors by degree of influence. In this way, we studied the confidence and attitude of the candidate population towards the current monkeypox vaccine, and added internal logic during the questionnaire collection process to ensure that specific questions were asked to specific types of participants.

[0050] In some optional embodiments, the target population categories include: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), recovered (R), and vaccinated (V). Demographic indicators include: birth rate ( )、Natural mortality rate( ), monkeypox-related mortality ( )、Recovery rate( )、Infection rate( ) and transmission rate ( ).

[0051] Optionally, demographic indicators may also include: the first vaccination rate corresponding to the historical time ( ), the second vaccination rate corresponding to the first preset time period ( ) and the third vaccination rate corresponding to the second preset time period ( Specifically, the first vaccination rate corresponding to the historical time can be calculated according to the number of candidate populations, vaccination history information, and vaccine hesitation information ( ), the second vaccination rate corresponding to the first preset time period ( ) and the third vaccination rate corresponding to the second preset time period ( ). In other words, the vaccination rate is calculated based on the data collected from the questionnaire, by dividing the number of people vaccinated by the total sample size per unit time.

[0052] Specifically, the birth rate ( ) and natural mortality rate ( ), are used to represent the natural human birth rate and death rate that are not related to monkeypox endemic disease; the recovery rate ( ), expressed as 1 / recovery period, where the recovery period is the time from the onset of infection to the time when the patient is no longer contagious; infection rate ( ), which is used to express the ratio of contacts between monkeypox infected and uninfected people; the transmission rate ( ), which is used to indicate the ratio of uninfected persons becoming infected persons after the incubation period, that is, the ratio of exposed persons (E) becoming infected persons (I). See Table 1 below for details.

[0053] Table 1

[0054]

[0055] * =1 / recovery period; †0.01812 is the median value.

[0056] Further, in some embodiments, in S102, the initial number of susceptible persons in the target area is determined as a first preset value, and the initial number of recovered persons in the target area is determined as a second preset value; the initial number of infected persons in the target area is determined based on the first preset value, the number of alternative populations and the monkeypox infection history information; the initial number of vaccinated persons in the target area is determined based on the first preset value, the number of alternative populations and the vaccination history information.

[0057] That is, S(0) is an assumed value. The initial value of the exposed person (E) is obtained by calculating the potential group that has contact with the infected (I) case. Specifically, the initial value of the exposed person can be calculated based on the basic reproduction number R0 as the rounded value of E(0) =R0*I(0). The initial value of the infected person is calculated by multiplying the infection ratio obtained by analyzing the questionnaire data by S(0), and R(0) is equal to zero. V(0) is calculated by multiplying the proportion of participants currently vaccinated in the questionnaire data by the initial susceptible population S(0). For specific values, please refer to the following Table 2.

[0058] Table 2

[0059]

[0060] In some embodiments, the monkeypox development trend prediction model comprises:

[0061] (1)

[0062] in, represents the total population; Indicates susceptible person; Indicates exposed person; Indicates an infected person; It means a person who has recovered; indicates the vaccine recipient; represents the birth rate; represents the natural mortality rate; represents monkeypox-related mortality; represents the recovery rate; represents the infection rate; represents vaccination rate; Represents the transmission rate.

[0063] It should be noted that the monkeypox development trend prediction model in this embodiment is no longer divided into rodents and humans, but only considers the dynamic transformation within the human population. That is, this embodiment assumes that the transmission of rodents to humans is negligible, and local epidemics only occur among humans. In addition, the total population (N) is divided into susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), recovered (R) and vaccinated (V).

[0064] For the specific implementation of S103, please refer to Figure 2 , which is a schematic diagram of the input of the monkeypox development trend prediction model. It should also be noted that the monkeypox development trend prediction model in this embodiment has the following non-negative initial conditions: S(0)≥0, E(0)≥0, I(0)≥0, R(0)≥0, V(0)≥0.

[0065] Additionally, in some embodiments, the basic reproduction number of the monkeypox development trend prediction model is determined based on demographic indicators using the following formula: Based on the basic reproduction number, stability conditions for the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point of the monkeypox development trend prediction model are determined;

[0066] ; (2)

[0067] in, represents the natural mortality rate; represents monkeypox-related mortality; represents the recovery rate; represents the infection rate; represents vaccination rate; Represents the transmission rate.

[0068] In the specific implementation, the equilibrium points after and during the epidemic are analyzed. The solution of the monkeypox development trend prediction model is uniformly bounded in the subset Ω, where:

[0069] ; (3)

[0070] This can be found by taking the derivative of the first equation in the model with respect to N:

[0071]

[0072]

[0073] (4)

[0074] When I ≥ 0, ,therefore According to this inequality, the following conclusions can be drawn about time t:

[0075] ; (5)

[0076] Since N(t)≥0, it can be deduced that 0≤N≤ ,when . Therefore, by definition, if N(0)≤ ,but is an upper bound on N(t). This indicates that the solution of the model lies within the region Ω, so the model is feasible and can be analyzed.

[0077] In order to find the equilibrium point of the dynamic system (i.e. the monkeypox development trend prediction model), we first find the solution of the following system:

[0078] (6)

[0079] You can get:

[0080] (7)

[0081] Through algebraic operations, the disease-free equilibrium point can be derived Balance point with endemic diseases Among them, the endemic disease balance point It only exists when R0>1. In the disease-free state, E=I=R=0, and the solution of (6) applied to the system gives the following result:

[0082] (8)

[0083] Balance point for endemic diseases , the number of each population group is not zero, so we can first Substitute to simplify the equation. At the endemic equilibrium In the case of , according to solution (7), we can know:

[0084] (9)

[0085] By substituting it into the other groups, we get:

[0086] (10)

[0087] as well as,

[0088]

[0089] (11)

[0090] Furthermore, the basic reproduction number R0 is proposed in the general group disease transmission model based on the ordinary differential equation system. Its practical significance is the expected number of secondary cases generated by a typical infected individual in a completely susceptible population. The reproduction number shows that if R0<1, then during its infectious period, an infected individual will produce less than one new infected individual on average, and the infection cannot grow, which means that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable; and if R0>1, then each infected individual will produce more than one new infection from the susceptible population on average, and the disease can invade the population, which means that the disease-free equilibrium is unstable. Therefore, R0 is a threshold parameter for the monkeypox development trend prediction model.

[0091] Specifically, the matrix and matrix denote the rates of entry and exit from the infected group, respectively. The matrices F and V are their partial derivatives. R0 is defined as the matrix FV −1 The spectral radius or maximum eigenvalue of .

[0092] For the model system, the susceptible population has a rate Enter the exposed group, therefore:

[0093] ; (12)

[0094] but:

[0095] ; (13)

[0096] Through matrix operations:

[0097] ; (14)

[0098] Then, you can use =0, the maximum eigenvalue R0 is obtained, as shown below:

[0099] ; (15)

[0100] Furthermore, in some embodiments, in order to find the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point, the Jacobian matrix of the model is first derived:

[0101] (16)

[0102] Then, to find the eigenvalues, convert the Jacobian matrix to an upper triangular matrix and use it to get the eigenvalues:

[0103]

[0104]

[0105]

[0106]

[0107] (17)

[0108] The theorem states that a dynamic system with continuous time is asymptotically stable when the real parts of all its eigenvalues ​​are negative. Therefore, it can be concluded that when R0<1, both the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are locally asymptotically stable; when R0>1, they are unstable.

[0109] In addition, in some embodiments, in order to elaborate on the effect of parameter changes on the basic reproduction number R0, a sensitivity index is applied. That is, the normalized forward sensitivity index of the variable τ that depends on the parameter p is defined as:

[0110] (18)

[0111] Then, using the parameters in Table 1, the sensitivity index values ​​of the model parameters in Table 3 can be calculated as follows:

[0112] Table 3

[0113]

[0114] It can be understood that in the sensitivity index, negative values ​​indicate that an increase in the parameter leads to a decrease in R0, while positive values ​​indicate the opposite. As can be seen from Table 3, increasing both the vaccination rate and the recovery rate will lead to a decrease in R0, thereby limiting the spread of the disease. In this case, the recovery rate can be understood as the efficiency of the treatment provided to monkeypox patients.

[0115] Further, according to formula (2), the values ​​of the basic reproduction number under different vaccination rates are calculated, as shown in Table 4 below (* in Table 4 is the estimated vaccination rate after six months, for reference only). As shown in Table 4, for the vaccination rates in the next six months and the future corresponding to R0<1, the disease free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable both locally and globally, while the local equilibrium point is asymptotically stable locally. This shows the reliability of the monkeypox development trend prediction model provided in this embodiment in predicting the development of monkeypox.

[0116] Table 4

[0117]

[0118] Therefore, by calling the objective function using the monkeypox development trend prediction model, the development trend prediction results of monkeypox in the population in the target area can be obtained, including the changes in the number of people in the target category in historical time, the first preset time period, and the second preset time period.

[0119] Further, in some embodiments, according to the development trend prediction results, a development trend diagram of monkeypox in the target area can be drawn. Specifically, the development trend diagram includes at least: time-quantity change curves of susceptible persons in the target area in historical time, first preset time period and second preset time period, time-quantity change curves of exposed persons in the target area in historical time, first preset time period and second preset time period, time-quantity change curves of infected persons in the target area in historical time, first preset time period and second preset time period, time-quantity change curves of recovered persons in the target area in historical time, first preset time period and second preset time period, and time-quantity change curves of vaccinated persons in the target area in historical time, first preset time period and second preset time period.

[0120] refer to Figure 3A , Figure 3B and Figure 3C , based on different vaccination rate values / / Predict the development of monkeypox in historical time or in a first preset time period or in a second preset time period. It should be understood that the local development in reality is milder than the prediction results of this embodiment, and the vaccination rate and initial population obtained by analyzing the questionnaire data are higher than the actual data. The prediction results of this embodiment can be used to observe the overall development trend of the monkeypox epidemic and the impact of parameter changes.

[0121] like Figure 3AAs shown, assuming current vaccination rates are maintained for six months, the susceptible population (S) declines exponentially over the first 40 days and approaches zero over time. From the model's perspective, people in the susceptible group are either vaccinated (V) or exposed to the virus (E). Despite continued births and natural deaths, the impact ultimately proves to be negligible. The contact (E) population is relatively small due to the low transmission rate of monkeypox. Figure 3A The graph shows a slight peak around day 18, which then tapers off to zero. The peak in the infected (I) population can be explained by the rapid progression of contacts (E) to infected people after the incubation period of monkeypox (approximately 2 weeks) is over. As the susceptible and contact populations decrease and more people get vaccinated, it is expected that the cases will disappear within three months. The outcome for infected people can be recovery (R) or death. For the vaccinated (V) population, more and more people got vaccinated at the beginning of the epidemic, but after the epidemic ended, fewer people paid attention to vaccination and their vaccine hesitancy increased. In addition, deaths also contribute to the downward trend of the curve.

[0122] like Figure 3B and Figure 3C As shown, assuming more people are vaccinated in the next six months and six months later, Figure 3A In comparison, the peaks of the contact and infected groups were earlier and smaller, indicating that the local epidemic will end earlier and involve fewer people. In addition, as the vaccination rate increased in relation to the contact and infected groups, the maximum value of the recovered group also decreased. After increasing the vaccination rate, the vaccinated group increased significantly, and the high population covered a longer period of time.

[0123] Furthermore, the target populations were separated into different groups to form a monkeypox trend chart, so as to better compare the impact of different vaccination rates on the prediction results. Figure 4A , Figure 4B , Figure 4C , Figure 4D and Figure 4E ( / / Corresponding to the red, yellow and green curves in the drawing respectively). That is, the development of monkeypox corresponding to susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and vaccinated people respectively.

[0124] like Figure 4A As shown in Figure 2, the susceptible population declines faster when vaccination coverage is higher, suggesting that the time to reach the maximum number of vaccinated people is shortened. FIG. 4B to FIG. 4E It can be observed that in That is, at the lowest vaccination rate, the peaks in the population for each group were much higher than at the other two vaccination rates. This trend is difficult to observe in the combined graph, but is very obvious when separated. This suggests that if vaccination were carried out within six months, the number of people exposed to monkeypox and infected would be reduced by about 50%, as estimated by the questionnaire results. By looking at Figure 4C Within the next six months, endemic diseases will reach disease-free status at about half the current vaccination rate. Figure 4D ,Although , The recovery rate is slower, but under the current vaccination conditions, the number of people who need to recover is approximately between 10% and 20%.

[0125] Thus, by focusing only on transmission between humans, the monkeypox development trend prediction model of this embodiment shows that at the current vaccination rate, the infected population will disappear within six months, and if more people are vaccinated within the first preset time period, this time can even be halved. The vaccination rates in all five compartments in the model vary significantly, demonstrating the huge impact of vaccination rates on dealing with relatively low R0 endemic diseases. Through stability analysis, it was found that both the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are asymptotically stable when R0<1, demonstrating the mathematical feasibility of the model. Sensitivity analysis showed that the treatment parameters (recovery rate) ) and vaccination parameters (vaccination coverage ) and the basic reproduction number R0, which suggests that improving treatment efficiency and increasing vaccination rates have a positive impact on limiting disease spread.

[0126] In addition, based on the above-mentioned prediction results of the development trend of monkeypox in the population in the target area, the monkeypox prevention and control strategy can be further determined. Figure 3A It is known that vaccine hesitancy increases when the number of infections decreases, so vaccine management is needed to prevent the re-emergence of endemic diseases; Figure 3B and Figure 3C It can be seen that vaccination can help eliminate local epidemics faster and better protect communities. According to the prediction results, more than twice the current number of people are expected to be vaccinated and the impact of monkeypox will be further reduced. It can be seen that with the improvement of vaccination rates, according to the model prediction, the monkeypox epidemic is expected to be eliminated. Participants who delayed vaccination underestimated the risk of monkeypox infection for themselves and those around them. Therefore, it is still important to promote monkeypox vaccination and corresponding preventive measures to increase awareness of monkeypox, correct misunderstandings and build trust in existing monkeypox vaccines.

[0127] It can be understood that the model prediction of this embodiment can be used as a reference for similar endemic diseases, that is, they can be quickly ended through an efficient vaccination program.

[0128] It should be noted that the above describes some embodiments of the present application. Other embodiments are within the scope of the appended claims. In some cases, the actions or steps recorded in the claims can be performed in an order different from that in the above embodiments and still achieve the desired results. In addition, the processes depicted in the accompanying drawings do not necessarily require the specific order or continuous order shown to achieve the desired results. In some embodiments, multitasking and parallel processing are also possible or may be advantageous.

[0129] Based on the same technical concept, corresponding to any of the above-mentioned embodiments and methods, the present application also provides a device 500 for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in the population.

[0130] like Figure 5 As shown, the device 500 for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population may include:

[0131] An acquisition module 501 is used to acquire monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitancy information of candidate populations in a target area, as well as demographic indicators of the target area, wherein the vaccination history information includes whether monkeypox vaccine and / or smallpox vaccine have been vaccinated, and the vaccine hesitancy information is whether the candidate population is willing to receive monkeypox vaccine within a first preset time period or a second preset time period;

[0132] A determination module 502 is used to determine the initial number of people in the target category in the target area based on the monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitancy information;

[0133] The input module 503 is used to input the demographic indicators and the initial number of people in the target category into a pre-constructed monkeypox development trend prediction model to obtain a development trend prediction result of monkeypox in the population in the target area, wherein the development trend prediction result includes the changes in the number of people in the target category in historical time, in a first preset time period, and in a second preset time period.

[0134] In some embodiments, the demographic indicators include a first vaccination rate corresponding to a historical time, a second vaccination rate corresponding to a first preset time period, and a third vaccination rate corresponding to a second preset time period.

[0135] In some embodiments, the acquisition module 501 is specifically used to collect questionnaires from candidate populations in the target area to obtain monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitation information of the candidate population; based on the number of candidate populations, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitation information, the first vaccination rate corresponding to the historical time, the second vaccination rate corresponding to the first preset time period and the third vaccination rate corresponding to the second preset time period are calculated respectively.

[0136] In some embodiments, the demographic indicators also include: birth rate, natural mortality rate, monkeypox-related mortality rate, recovery rate, infection rate and transmission rate; the target population categories include: susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and vaccinated.

[0137] In some embodiments, the development trend prediction device 500 further includes a stability condition module ( Figure 5 ), for determining the basic reproduction number of the monkeypox development trend prediction model according to demographic indicators using the following formula: According to the basic reproduction number, determining the stability conditions of the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point of the monkeypox development trend prediction model;

[0138] ;

[0139] in, represents the natural mortality rate; represents monkeypox-related mortality; represents the recovery rate; represents the infection rate; represents vaccination rate; Represents the transmission rate.

[0140] In some embodiments, the development trend prediction device 500 further includes a drawing module ( Figure 5 (not shown) is used to draw a development trend diagram of monkeypox in the population in the target area according to the development trend prediction result; the development trend diagram at least includes: time-quantity change curves of susceptible persons in the target area in historical time, first preset time period and second preset time period respectively, time-quantity change curves of exposed persons in the target area in historical time, first preset time period and second preset time period respectively, time-quantity change curves of infected persons in the target area in historical time, first preset time period and second preset time period respectively, time-quantity change curves of recovered persons in the target area in historical time, first preset time period and second preset time period respectively, time-quantity change curves of vaccinated persons in the target area in historical time, first preset time period and second preset time period respectively.

[0141] In some embodiments, the determination module 502 is specifically used to determine the initial number of susceptible persons in the target area as a first preset value, and the initial number of recovered persons in the target area as a second preset value; determine the initial number of infected persons in the target area according to the first preset value, the number of the alternative population and the monkeypox infection history information; determine the initial number of vaccinated persons in the target area according to the first preset value, the number of the alternative population and the vaccination history information.

[0142] In some embodiments, the monkeypox development trend prediction model comprises:

[0143]

[0144] in, represents the total population; Indicates susceptible person; Indicates exposed person; Indicates an infected person; It means a person who has recovered; indicates the vaccine recipient; represents the birth rate; represents the natural mortality rate; represents monkeypox-related mortality; represents the recovery rate; represents the infection rate; represents vaccination rate; Represents the transmission rate.

[0145] It should be noted that, for the convenience of description, the above device is described in various modules according to their functions. Of course, when implementing this application, the functions of each module can be implemented in the same or multiple software and / or hardware.

[0146] The device of the above embodiment is used to implement the corresponding method for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in the population in any of the above embodiments, and has the beneficial effects of the corresponding method embodiment, which will not be repeated here.

[0147] Based on the same technical concept, corresponding to any of the above-mentioned embodiment methods, the present application also provides an electronic device.

[0148] Figure 6 A more specific schematic diagram of the hardware structure of an electronic device provided by this embodiment is shown.

[0149] The electronic device 600 may include a processor 601 and a memory 602 storing computer program instructions.

[0150] Specifically, the processor 601 may include a central processing unit (CPU), or an application specific integrated circuit (ASIC), or may be configured to implement one or more integrated circuits of the embodiments of the present application.

[0151] The memory 602 may include a large capacity memory for data or instructions. By way of example and not limitation, the memory 602 may include a hard disk drive (HDD), a floppy disk drive, a flash memory, an optical disk, a magneto-optical disk, a magnetic tape, or a universal serial bus (USB) drive or a combination of two or more of these. In appropriate cases, the memory 602 may include a removable or non-removable (or fixed) medium. In appropriate cases, the memory 602 may be inside or outside the integrated gateway disaster recovery device. In a specific embodiment, the memory 602 is a non-volatile solid-state memory.

[0152] In certain embodiments, the memory may include a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a magnetic disk storage media device, an optical storage media device, a flash memory device, an electrical, optical or other physical / tangible memory storage device. Thus, typically, the memory includes one or more tangible (non-transitory) computer-readable storage media (e.g., a memory device) encoded with software including computer-executable instructions, and when the software is executed (e.g., by one or more processors), it is operable to perform the operations described with reference to the method according to an aspect of the present application.

[0153] The processor 601 reads and executes the computer program instructions stored in the memory 602 to implement any one of the methods for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population in the above embodiments.

[0154] In some examples, the electronic device 600 may further include a communication interface 603 and a bus 610. Figure 6 As shown, the processor 601, the memory 602, and the communication interface 603 are connected via a bus 610 and communicate with each other.

[0155] The communication interface 603 is mainly used to implement communication between various modules, devices, units and / or equipment in the embodiments of the present application.

[0156] Bus 610 includes hardware, software or both, and couples the components of online data traffic billing equipment to each other. For example, but not limitation, bus 610 may include accelerated graphics port (AGP) or other graphics bus, enhanced industrial standard architecture (EISA) bus, front-side bus (FSB), hypertransport (HT) interconnection, industrial standard architecture (ISA) bus, infinite bandwidth interconnection, low pin count (LPC) bus, memory bus, micro channel architecture (MCA) bus, peripheral component interconnect (PCI) bus, PCI-Express (PCI-X) bus, serial advanced technology attachment (SATA) bus, video electronics standard association local (VLB) bus or other suitable bus or two or more of these combinations. Where appropriate, bus 610 may include one or more buses. Although the present application embodiment describes and shows a specific bus, the present application considers any suitable bus or interconnection.

[0157] Exemplarily, the electronic device 600 may be a mobile phone, a tablet computer, a laptop computer, a PDA, an in-vehicle electronic device, an ultra-mobile personal computer (UMPC), a netbook, or a personal digital assistant (PDA).

[0158] Based on the same technical concept, corresponding to any of the above-mentioned embodiments, the present application also provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium. Computer program instructions are stored on the computer-readable storage medium; when the computer program instructions are executed by the processor, any of the above-mentioned methods for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in the population is implemented. Examples of computer-readable storage media include non-transitory computer-readable storage media, such as portable disks, hard disks, random access memories (RAM), read-only memories (ROM), erasable programmable read-only memories (EPROM or flash memory), portable compact disk read-only memories (CD-ROM), optical storage devices, magnetic storage devices, etc.

[0159] Based on the same technical concept, corresponding to any of the above-mentioned embodiments, the present application also provides a computer program product, which includes computer program instructions. In some embodiments, the computer program instructions can be executed by one or more processors of a computer so that the computer and / or the processor execute the method for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population. Corresponding to the execution subject corresponding to each step in each embodiment of the method for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population, the processor that executes the corresponding step may belong to the corresponding execution subject.

[0160] It should be clear that the present application is not limited to the specific configuration and processing described above and shown in the figures. For the sake of simplicity, a detailed description of the known method is omitted here. In the above embodiments, several specific steps are described and shown as examples. However, the method process of the present application is not limited to the specific steps described and shown, and those skilled in the art can make various changes, modifications and additions, or change the order between the steps after understanding the spirit of the present application.

[0161] The functional blocks shown in the structural block diagram described above can be implemented as hardware, software, firmware or a combination thereof. When implemented in hardware, it can be, for example, an electronic circuit, an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), appropriate firmware, a plug-in, a function card, etc. When implemented in software, the elements of the present application are programs or code segments used to perform the required tasks. The program or code segment can be stored in a machine-readable medium, or transmitted on a transmission medium or a communication link by a data signal carried in a carrier. "Machine-readable medium" may include any medium capable of storing or transmitting information. Examples of machine-readable media include electronic circuits, semiconductor memory devices, ROMs, flash memories, erasable ROMs (EROMs), floppy disks, CD-ROMs, optical disks, hard disks, optical fiber media, radio frequency (RF) links, etc. The code segment can be downloaded via a computer network such as the Internet, an intranet, etc.

[0162] It should also be noted that the exemplary embodiments mentioned in this application describe some methods or systems based on a series of steps or devices. However, this application is not limited to the order of the above steps, that is, the steps can be performed in the order mentioned in the embodiment, or in a different order from the embodiment, or several steps can be performed simultaneously.

[0163] The above describes various aspects of the present application with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems) and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each box in the flowchart and / or block diagram and the combination of each box in the flowchart and / or block diagram can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine so that these instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device enable the implementation of the functions / actions specified in one or more boxes of the flowchart and / or block diagram. Such a processor can be, but is not limited to, a general-purpose processor, a special-purpose processor, a special application processor, or a field programmable logic circuit. It can also be understood that each box in the block diagram and / or flowchart and the combination of boxes in the block diagram and / or flowchart can also be implemented by dedicated hardware that performs a specified function or action, or can be implemented by a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions.

[0164] The above is only a specific implementation of the present application. Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that for the convenience and simplicity of description, the specific working processes of the systems, modules and units described above can refer to the corresponding processes in the aforementioned method embodiments, and will not be repeated here. It should be understood that the protection scope of the present application is not limited to this. Any technician familiar with the technical field can easily think of various equivalent modifications or replacements within the technical scope disclosed in this application, and these modifications or replacements should be included in the protection scope of this application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population, characterized in that: include: Obtain monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitancy information of candidate populations in the target area, as well as demographic indicators of the target area, wherein the vaccination history information includes whether monkeypox vaccine and / or smallpox vaccine have been vaccinated, the vaccine hesitancy information is whether there is a willingness to receive monkeypox vaccine within a first preset time period or a second preset time period, and the demographic indicators include a first vaccination rate corresponding to the historical time, a second vaccination rate corresponding to the first preset time period, and a third vaccination rate corresponding to the second preset time period, as well as birth rate, natural mortality rate, monkeypox-related mortality rate, recovery rate, infection rate and transmission rate; Determining the initial number of target category populations in the target area based on the monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information, and vaccine hesitancy information, wherein the target category populations include susceptible persons, exposed persons, infected persons, recovered persons, and vaccinated persons; According to the number of candidate populations, vaccination history information, and vaccine hesitancy information, respectively calculating a first vaccination rate corresponding to the historical time, a second vaccination rate corresponding to the first preset time period, and a third vaccination rate corresponding to the second preset time period; Inputting the demographic indicators and the initial number of people in the target category into a pre-constructed monkeypox development trend prediction model to obtain a development trend prediction result of monkeypox in the population in the target area, wherein the development trend prediction result includes changes in the number of people in the target category in historical time, in a first preset time period, and in a second preset time period; The monkeypox development trend prediction model includes: in, represents the total population; Indicates susceptible person; Indicates exposed person; Indicates an infected person; It means a person who has recovered; indicates the vaccine recipient; represents the birth rate; represents the natural mortality rate; represents monkeypox-related mortality; represents the recovery rate; represents the infection rate; represents vaccination rate; Represents the transmission rate.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The method of obtaining monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitancy information of candidate populations in the target area, as well as demographic indicators of the target area, includes: Questionnaires are collected from candidate populations in the target area to obtain information on monkeypox infection history, vaccination history, and vaccine hesitancy of the candidate populations.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Before inputting the demographic indicators and the initial number of people in the target category into a pre-constructed monkeypox development trend prediction model to obtain a prediction result of the development trend of monkeypox in the population in the target area, the method further includes: Based on demographic indicators, the basic reproduction number of the monkeypox development trend prediction model is determined using the following formula: : ； in, represents the natural mortality rate; represents monkeypox-related mortality; represents the recovery rate; represents the infection rate; represents vaccination rate; represents the transmission rate; According to the basic reproduction number, the stability conditions of the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point of the monkeypox development trend prediction model are determined.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: After inputting the demographic indicators and the initial number of people in the target category into a pre-constructed monkeypox development trend prediction model to obtain a prediction result of the development trend of monkeypox in the population in the target area, the method further includes: According to the development trend prediction result, drawing a development trend diagram of monkeypox in the population in the target area; The development trend graph at least includes: time-quantity change curves of susceptible persons in the target area in historical time, the first preset time period and the second preset time period respectively, time-quantity change curves of exposed persons in the target area in historical time, the first preset time period and the second preset time period respectively, time-quantity change curves of infected persons in the target area in historical time, the first preset time period and the second preset time period respectively, time-quantity change curves of recovered persons in the target area in historical time, the first preset time period and the second preset time period respectively, time-quantity change curves of vaccinated persons in the target area in historical time, the first preset time period and the second preset time period respectively.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Determining the initial number of people in the target category in the target area based on the monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitancy information includes: Determine the initial number of susceptible persons in the target area as a first preset value, and determine the initial number of recovered persons in the target area as a second preset value; Determining the initial number of infected persons in the target area according to the first preset value, the number of the candidate population and the monkeypox infection history information; The initial number of vaccinees in the target area is determined based on the first preset value, the number of candidate populations and vaccination history information.

6. A device for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population, characterized in that: The device comprises: an acquisition module, for acquiring monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitancy information of a candidate population in a target area, as well as demographic indicators of the target area, wherein the vaccination history information includes whether monkeypox vaccine and / or smallpox vaccine have been vaccinated, the vaccine hesitancy information is whether there is a willingness to receive monkeypox vaccine within a first preset time period or a second preset time period, and the demographic indicators include a first vaccination rate corresponding to a historical time, a second vaccination rate corresponding to a first preset time period, and a third vaccination rate corresponding to a second preset time period, as well as birth rate, natural mortality rate, monkeypox-related mortality rate, recovery rate, infection rate and transmission rate; A determination module, for determining an initial number of target category populations in a target area based on the monkeypox infection history information, vaccination history information, and vaccine hesitancy information, wherein the target category populations include susceptible persons, exposed persons, infected persons, recovered persons, and vaccinated persons; A calculation module, for calculating, according to the number of candidate populations, vaccination history information and vaccine hesitation information, a first vaccination rate corresponding to the historical time, a second vaccination rate corresponding to the first preset time period, and a third vaccination rate corresponding to the second preset time period; An input module, used for inputting the demographic indicators and the initial number of the target category population into a pre-constructed monkeypox development trend prediction model to obtain a development trend prediction result of monkeypox in the population in the target area, wherein the development trend prediction result includes the number changes of the target category population in historical time, in a first preset time period, and in a second preset time period; The monkeypox development trend prediction model includes: in, represents the total population; Indicates susceptible person; Indicates exposed person; Indicates an infected person; It means a person who has recovered; indicates the vaccine recipient; represents the birth rate; represents the natural mortality rate; represents monkeypox-related mortality; represents the recovery rate; represents the infection rate; represents vaccination rate; Represents the transmission rate.

7. An electronic device, characterized in that: The device comprises: a processor and a memory storing computer program instructions; when the processor calls the computer program instructions, the method for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population as described in any one of claims 1 to 5 is implemented.

8. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores computer program instructions, which, when called by a processor, implement the method for predicting the development trend of monkeypox in a population as described in any one of claims 1 to 5.

Images