A prediction method and prediction system for wind turbine operating status

Abstract

The present invention discloses a prediction method and prediction system for the operating status of a wind turbine generator set, and the present invention relates to the technical field of wind turbine generator set prediction. The present invention implements full-process coverage from basic data acquisition to operating status prediction by performing multi-dimensional monitoring and evaluation on the rotation speed of a wind rotor, vibration of a gear box, and transmission performance of a high-speed shaft; the method combines a dual evaluation mechanism of a risk operating coefficient and a safety conversion coefficient, and provides an accurate and quantitative tool for state prediction of a wind turbine generator set, which can capture potential anomalies in real time and significantly improve operational safety and stability; the overall solution has high flexibility and adaptability, and key parameters can be adjusted according to the design characteristics of different wind turbine generator sets; by introducing a multi-level risk warning mechanism, not only the sensitivity of fault prediction is improved, but also a decision-making basis is provided for the efficient operation and maintenance of wind turbine generator sets; the method and system can effectively reduce equipment operation risks and maintenance costs.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of wind turbine prediction, and in particular to a method and system for predicting the operating state of a wind turbine. Background Art

[0002] As a clean and renewable energy source, wind power has become an important part of the global energy transformation. In a wind turbine, the gearbox is the core component that connects the wind rotor and the generator. Its main function is to convert the low-speed, high-torque rotation of the wind rotor into the high-speed, low-torque rotation required by the generator. However, since the gearbox needs to withstand complex loads and continuous operating conditions, it is one of the components with the highest failure rate in wind turbines. At present, the monitoring methods for the operating status of wind turbines mainly focus on the statistical analysis of macro indicators such as power generation and speed. There is a lack of refined monitoring and prediction of the operating status of the gearbox, resulting in gearbox failures often being discovered only after the problem accumulates to a serious stage, thereby causing unit shutdown or significant losses.

[0003] The operating status of the gearbox is directly related to the overall performance and power generation efficiency of the wind turbine. On the one hand, the vibration characteristics, transmission efficiency and mechanical wear of the gearbox are important indicators to measure its health status. On the other hand, due to the changeable operating environment and complex working conditions of wind turbines, changes in the wind rotor speed, transmission ratio and high-speed shaft speed may have a significant impact on the performance of the gearbox. However, the existing technology has problems of incomplete monitoring and inaccurate evaluation in terms of processing gearbox status data under different working conditions and predicting its correlation with the operating status. Therefore, how to effectively conduct accurate risk assessment and operating status prediction of the core component gearbox in the wind turbine has become a technical problem that needs to be solved urgently. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a method and system for predicting the operating status of a wind turbine generator set, which solve the problems in the background technology.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention is implemented through the following technical solutions: A method for predicting the operating status of a wind turbine generator set, comprising:

[0006] Step 1: First, obtain the speed at which the wind rotor is driven to rotate when the current blades rotate, and determine the current wind rotor rotation speed by dividing the wind rotor speed stage according to the pre-set wind rotor speed stage division rule, wherein the division results of the pre-set wind rotor speed stage division rule include: low speed stage, low-medium speed stage, medium speed stage and high speed stage;

[0007] Step 2: Install a vibration sensor in the gearbox, and obtain the corresponding reference vibration range threshold according to the different speed stages of the wind rotor rotation speed; then determine the speed stage of the current wind rotor rotation speed, obtain the corresponding reference vibration range threshold, and obtain the vibration data of the current gearbox at the same time, and determine the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox according to the vibration data of the current gearbox and the corresponding reference vibration range;

[0008] Step 3: Then obtain the speed of the wind wheel at the current moment, calculate the theoretical value of the high-speed shaft speed according to the transmission ratio of the gear box, and obtain the current high-speed shaft speed in real time, compare the current high-speed shaft speed with the theoretical high-speed shaft speed, and determine the safety conversion factor of the gear box;

[0009] Step 4: Evaluate the gearbox according to its risk operation coefficient and its conversion coefficient to obtain the overall safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox, judge the gearbox safety factor evaluation value, and predict the operating status of the wind turbine.

[0010] As a further solution of the present invention: in the step 2, the specific method of obtaining the corresponding reference vibration range threshold is as follows: AS1: determine the historical data set, and determine the speed stage of the wind wheel rotation speed, extract the vibration data set corresponding to the speed stage from the historical data set, and record it as , ,in, is the vibration value of a single measurement, n is the total number of vibration data in the vibration data set; Perform denoising and normalization: ,in, and The mean and standard deviation of the vibration sensor recorded data are: , ;AS2: OK Vibration data set after denoising and normalization ; Calculate vibration data set The average value of , ; Calculate vibration data set The standard deviation of , ; Then preliminarily determine the normal vibration data range : in, is the first sensitivity coefficient; for the vibration data set Sort the data in the table from small to large and remove the data that exceeds the normal vibration range. Vibration data of; get the vibration data set after elimination ;AS3: Based on the vibration data set after elimination Sort the data in from small to large and determine the first quartile of the data and the third quartile ; Calculate the interquartile range : , then get the outlier judgment range : ,in, is the second sensitivity coefficient; in the vibration data set In the process, remove outliers beyond the judgment range. Vibration data of the filter is obtained to obtain the vibration data set after elimination ;AS4: Vibration data set after elimination , calculate the vibration data set The mean and standard deviation , and finally determine the baseline vibration range threshold as: ,in, is the reference vibration range threshold, is the third sensitivity coefficient.

[0011] As a further solution of the present invention: in the step AS1, the historical data set includes a vibration data set of a low speed stage, a low-medium speed stage, a medium speed stage and a high speed stage.

[0012] As a further solution of the present invention: the speed stage of the current wind wheel rotation speed is determined, the corresponding reference vibration range threshold is obtained, and the vibration data of the current gearbox is obtained. According to the vibration data of the current gearbox and the corresponding reference vibration range, the specific method of determining the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox is as follows: BS1: Obtain the vibration data of the current gearbox and mark it as ; At the same time, obtain the corresponding reference vibration range , reference vibration range The range is ,in, , ; BS2: Set a deviation tolerance ;BS3: Determine the risk operating factor of the gearbox through the following steps :BS31: If : BS32: If or : ,in, is the center value of the reference range, and ; is the deviation weight coefficient; BS33: If or : ,in, Indicates the boundary point beyond the reference vibration range, or ; is the significant deviation weight coefficient, To control the risk growth rate.

[0013] As a further solution of the present invention: in the step 3, the speed of the wind wheel at the current moment is obtained, and the theoretical value of the high-speed shaft speed is calculated according to the transmission ratio of the gear box, and the current high-speed shaft speed is obtained in real time, and the current high-speed shaft speed is compared with the theoretical high-speed shaft speed. The specific method for determining the safety conversion factor of the gear box is as follows: CS1: The theoretical value of the high-speed shaft speed is calculated by the speed of the wind wheel at the current moment and the transmission ratio of the gear box, and marked as: ; At the same time, get the current high-speed shaft speed and mark it as: ; CS2: Calculate the deviation value by the following formula: , the deviation percentage is calculated by the following formula: , CS3: Set the risk deviation interval and determine the safety conversion factor of the gearbox based on the risk deviation interval.

[0014] As a further solution of the present invention: the specific method of determining the safety conversion factor of the gearbox according to the risk deviation interval is: CS31: Setting the low deviation interval: When The safety conversion factor of the gearbox is determined by the following formula: ,in, is the safety conversion factor of the gearbox, is the low deviation weight coefficient; CS32: set the medium deviation interval: when The safety conversion factor of the gearbox is determined by the following formula: ,in, is the medium deviation weight coefficient; CS33: Set the high deviation interval: when The safety conversion factor of the gearbox is determined by the following formula: ,in, is the high deviation weight coefficient, is the risk growth factor; and , These are preset values.

[0015] As a further solution of the present invention: in the step 4, the gearbox is evaluated according to the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox and the conversion coefficient of the gearbox to obtain the overall safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox, and the safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox is judged. The specific method for predicting the operating state of the wind turbine is as follows: DS1: The overall safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox is determined by the following formula: ,in, and is the weight coefficient, which indicates the relative influence of the risk operation coefficient and the safety conversion coefficient on the overall safety; DS2: based on the overall safety factor of the gearbox , and make graded predictions on the operating status of the gearbox.

[0016] As a further solution of the present invention: the step of performing graded prediction on the operating state of the gearbox comprises: if When the gearbox is in a safe operating state, it means that the wind turbine is operating normally; if If the gearbox has a slight abnormality, please pay attention to monitoring; if When the gearbox is in a high-risk state, it needs to be repaired immediately. and They are the safety status threshold and risk status threshold respectively.

[0017] A prediction system for the operating status of a wind turbine generator set, comprising:

[0018] The wind rotor speed stage division module is used to obtain the speed at which the wind rotor is driven to rotate when the current blades rotate, and to determine the wind rotor speed stage division of the current wind rotor rotation speed according to the pre-set wind rotor speed stage division rule, wherein the division results of the pre-set wind rotor speed stage division rule include: low speed stage, low-medium speed stage, medium speed stage and high speed stage;

[0019] A reference vibration range threshold determination module is used to install a vibration sensor in the gearbox and obtain a corresponding reference vibration range threshold according to the wind wheel rotation speed being in different speed stages;

[0020] Risk operation coefficient determination module: used to determine the speed stage of the current wind wheel rotation speed, obtain the corresponding reference vibration range threshold, and obtain the vibration data of the current gearbox. According to the vibration data of the current gearbox and the corresponding reference vibration range, the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox is determined;

[0021] Safety conversion factor determination module: used to obtain the speed of the wind wheel at the current moment, calculate the theoretical value of the high-speed shaft speed according to the transmission ratio of the gearbox, obtain the current high-speed shaft speed in real time, compare the current high-speed shaft speed with the theoretical high-speed shaft speed, and determine the safety conversion factor of the gearbox;

[0022] Safety factor prediction module: used to evaluate the gearbox according to the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox and the conversion coefficient of the gearbox, obtain the overall safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox, judge the safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox, and predict the operating status of the wind turbine.

[0023] The present invention provides a prediction method and system for the operating status of a wind turbine generator set. Compared with the prior art, the method and system have the following beneficial effects:

[0024] The present invention proposes a prediction method and prediction system for the operating status of a wind turbine. By performing multi-dimensional monitoring and evaluation on the rotor speed, gearbox vibration, and high-speed shaft transmission performance, the whole process from basic data collection to operating status prediction is covered. The method combines the dual evaluation mechanism of risk operation coefficient and safety conversion coefficient, provides an accurate and quantitative tool for the state prediction of wind turbines, can capture potential anomalies in real time, and significantly improves the safety and stability of operation.

[0025] The overall solution has high flexibility and adaptability, and key parameters can be adjusted according to the design characteristics of different wind turbines. By introducing a multi-level risk warning mechanism, it not only improves the sensitivity of fault prediction, but also provides a decision-making basis for the efficient operation and maintenance of wind turbines. This method and system can effectively reduce equipment operation risks and maintenance costs. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0026] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0027] Figure 1 A flowchart of the steps of a method for predicting the operating status of a wind turbine generator set according to the present invention;

[0028] Figure 2 The present invention is a structural framework diagram of a system for predicting the operating status of a wind turbine generator set. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0029] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0030] Example 1: Please refer to Figure 1 , the present invention provides a method for predicting the operating status of a wind turbine generator set, comprising:

[0031] Step 1: First, obtain the speed at which the wind rotor is driven to rotate when the current blades rotate, and determine the current wind rotor rotation speed by dividing the wind rotor speed stage according to the pre-set wind rotor speed stage division rule, wherein the division results of the pre-set wind rotor speed stage division rule include: low speed stage, low-medium speed stage, medium speed stage and high speed stage;

[0032] It should be noted that the pre-set wind rotor speed stage division rules are set by professional staff and can be set differently according to wind turbines of different design types; generally speaking, for large wind turbines (1MW and above), they usually use larger blades to obtain more energy by slow rotation. The speed of such wind rotors generally does not exceed 20 revolutions per minute. Then, the range of such wind rotor speeds is 0-20 revolutions per minute. It can be stipulated that if the current wind rotor speed is in the range of 0-5 revolutions per minute, the current wind rotor speed is stipulated as a low speed stage; if the current wind rotor speed is in the range of 5-10 revolutions per minute, the current wind rotor speed is stipulated as a medium-low speed stage; if the current wind rotor speed is in the range of 10-15 revolutions per minute, the current wind rotor speed is stipulated as a medium speed stage; if the current wind rotor speed is in the range of 15-20 revolutions per minute, the current wind rotor speed is stipulated as a high speed stage;

[0033] By presetting the wind rotor speed stage division rules, the current wind rotor speed is accurately divided, so that the wind rotor speed characteristics are more in line with the actual working conditions; the use of different stages of division (low speed, low medium speed, medium speed, high speed) can flexibly adapt to the design requirements of different types of wind turbines, such as the low speed and high energy capture characteristics of large wind turbines; this division method not only enhances the applicability of the prediction method, but also lays a solid foundation for subsequent vibration data analysis, effectively improving the scientificity and accuracy of data processing;

[0034] Step 2: Install a vibration sensor in the gearbox, and obtain the corresponding reference vibration range threshold according to the different speed stages of the wind rotor rotation speed; then determine the speed stage of the current wind rotor rotation speed, obtain the corresponding reference vibration range threshold, and obtain the vibration data of the current gearbox at the same time, and determine the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox according to the vibration data of the current gearbox and the corresponding reference vibration range;

[0035] It should be noted that the vibration sensor is installed at a suitable position in the gearbox. When the gearbox is in operation, the vibration sensor collects and records the vibration information of the gearbox as a whole. Generally speaking, there may be different vibration data at different speed stages. For example, at a low speed stage, the vibration data is generally smaller, and at a high speed stage, the vibration data is generally larger. Based on this principle, by analyzing the vibration data set at different speed stages, the baseline vibration range threshold of each stage is obtained.

[0036] The specific method of obtaining the corresponding reference vibration range threshold is as follows: AS1: determine the historical data set and the speed stage of the wind wheel rotation speed, extract the vibration data set corresponding to the speed stage from the historical data set, and record it as , ,in, is the vibration value of a single measurement, n is the total number of vibration data in the vibration data set; Perform denoising and normalization: ,in, and The mean and standard deviation of the vibration sensor recorded data are: , ; It should be noted that the historical data set includes vibration data sets of low speed stage, low-medium speed stage, medium speed stage and high speed stage; AS2: Determine Vibration data set after denoising and normalization ; Calculate vibration data set The average value of , ; Calculate vibration data set The standard deviation of , ; Then preliminarily determine the normal vibration data range : ,in, is the first sensitivity coefficient; for the vibration data set Sort the data in the table from small to large and remove the data that exceeds the normal vibration range. Vibration data of; get the vibration data set after elimination ;AS3: Based on the vibration data set after elimination Sort the data in from small to large and determine the first quartile of the data and the third quartile ; Calculate the interquartile range : , then get the outlier judgment range : ,in, is the second sensitivity coefficient; in the vibration data set In the process, remove outliers beyond the judgment range. Vibration data of the filter is obtained to obtain the vibration data set after elimination ;AS4: Vibration data set after elimination , calculate the vibration data set The mean and standard deviation , and finally determine the baseline vibration range threshold as: ,in, is the reference vibration range threshold, is the third sensitivity coefficient;

[0037] The specific method of determining the speed stage of the current wind wheel rotation speed, obtaining the corresponding reference vibration range threshold, and obtaining the vibration data of the current gearbox, and determining the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox according to the vibration data of the current gearbox and the corresponding reference vibration range is as follows: BS1: Obtain the vibration data of the current gearbox and mark it as ; At the same time, obtain the corresponding reference vibration range , reference vibration range The range is ,in, , ; BS2: Set a deviation tolerance , specific deviation tolerance The setting is set by professional staff; BS3: Determine the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox through the following steps :BS31: If : BS32: If or : ,in, is the center value of the reference range, and ; is the deviation weight coefficient; usually BS33: If or : ,in, Indicates the boundary point beyond the reference vibration range, or ; is the significant deviation weight coefficient, usually taking the value , In order to control the risk growth rate, it is usually ; Vibration sensors are installed in the gearbox, and the benchmark vibration range thresholds for each speed stage are established through the collection of vibration data, analysis of historical data, and standardized processing; this process can better capture the dynamic characteristics of the gearbox operation. After eliminating abnormal and outlier data, the resulting benchmark range is more accurate, which significantly improves the reliability of vibration assessment; in addition, the introduction of risk operation coefficients to quantify the health status of the gearbox can identify potential risks in a timely manner, reduce the probability of gearbox failure, and thus improve the overall operational reliability of the wind turbine;

[0038] Step 3: Then obtain the speed of the wind wheel at the current moment, calculate the theoretical value of the high-speed shaft speed according to the transmission ratio of the gear box, and obtain the current high-speed shaft speed in real time, compare the current high-speed shaft speed with the theoretical high-speed shaft speed, and determine the safety conversion factor of the gear box;

[0039] It should be noted that the internal structure of the gearbox in the wind turbine includes an input shaft, a transmission gear set and an output shaft. The input shaft is also called a low-speed shaft. The wind shaft can be connected to the input shaft of the gearbox. The transmission gear set contains multiple gears of different sizes (planetary gears, cylindrical gears, bevel gears, etc.) for speed conversion. The design and structure of the gear set determine the conversion ratio (i.e., the multiple of the speed increase). For example, a transmission ratio of 1:100 or 1:150 means that for every 100 turns of the input shaft, the output shaft will rotate 100 times. The output shaft is also called a low-speed shaft and a high-speed shaft. The high-speed shaft is one of the core parts of the gearbox, and its main function is to provide sufficient speed to drive the generator; it is connected to the low-speed shaft of the wind rotor through a gearbox; at the same time, the current high-speed shaft speed is obtained in real time by installing a sensor to monitor the real-time speed of the high-speed shaft;

[0040] The specific method of obtaining the speed of the wind wheel at the current moment, calculating the theoretical value of the high-speed shaft speed according to the transmission ratio of the gear box, obtaining the current high-speed shaft speed in real time, and comparing the current high-speed shaft speed with the theoretical high-speed shaft speed to determine the safety conversion factor of the gear box is as follows: CS1: The theoretical value of the high-speed shaft speed is calculated by the speed of the wind wheel at the current moment and the transmission ratio of the gear box, and marked as: ; At the same time, get the current high-speed shaft speed and mark it as: ; CS2: Calculate the deviation value by the following formula: , the deviation percentage is calculated by the following formula: , CS3: Set the risk deviation interval, and determine the safety conversion factor of the gearbox according to the risk deviation interval: CS31: Set the low deviation interval: When When the deviation is considered to be within the acceptable range, the safety conversion factor of the gearbox is determined by the following formula: ,in, is the safety conversion factor of the gearbox, is a low bias weight coefficient, usually taken ;CS32: Set the deviation interval: when The safety conversion factor of the gearbox is determined by the following formula: ,in, is the medium deviation weight coefficient, usually taking the value ;CS33: Set high deviation interval: When The safety conversion factor of the gearbox is determined by the following formula: ,in, is the high deviation weight coefficient, usually taken , is the risk growth rate coefficient, usually ; Specifically, , These are all preset values, and the specific values ​​are determined by professional staff based on experience;

[0041] Combined with the above steps CS31-CS33, the safety conversion factor of the gearbox The comprehensive calculation formula is:

[0042] ;

[0043] By calculating the deviation value and deviation percentage between the theoretical speed and the actual speed of the high-speed shaft, and dividing the level of the safety conversion coefficient based on the risk deviation range, this step provides real-time monitoring capabilities for the gearbox transmission performance; the method of calculating the theoretical speed by transmission ratio and comparing it can accurately capture the subtle abnormalities in the internal operation of the gearbox, and adjust the weight coefficient through sensitivity, providing a more flexible and sophisticated risk assessment method; this method not only enhances the sensitivity of the gearbox operating status assessment, but also provides accurate data support for the safety monitoring of the overall wind turbine set;

[0044] Step 4: Evaluate the gearbox according to its risk operation coefficient and its conversion coefficient, obtain the overall safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox, judge the safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox, and predict the operation status of the wind turbine;

[0045] The gearbox is evaluated according to the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox and the conversion coefficient of the gearbox to obtain the overall safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox, and the gearbox safety factor evaluation value is judged to predict the specific method of the wind turbine operating state:

[0046] DS1: The overall safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox is determined by the following formula: ,in, and is the weight coefficient, which indicates the relative influence of the risk operation coefficient and the safety conversion coefficient on the overall safety. The higher the value, the greater the risk. The conversion factor of the gearbox The higher the value, the more stable the transmission performance;

[0047] DS2: Based on the overall safety factor of the gearbox , to make a graded prediction of the gearbox operating status, including: When the gearbox is in a safe operating state, it means that the wind turbine is operating normally; if If the gearbox has a slight abnormality, please pay attention to monitoring; if When the gearbox is in a high-risk state, it needs to be repaired immediately. and are the safety state threshold and risk state threshold respectively, and and The specific value of is set by professional staff. In the embodiment, Typically set to: ; Typically set to: ; Combined with the risk operation coefficient and the safety conversion coefficient, the overall safety of the gearbox is comprehensively evaluated. This step effectively realizes the graded prediction of the operating status; by introducing the safety status threshold and the risk status threshold, the operating status of the gearbox is clearly classified, thereby providing a graded early warning mechanism for safety, minor abnormalities and high risks; this method can not only effectively prevent the occurrence of major failures, but also provide a scientific basis for the decision-making of operation and maintenance personnel, making the operation and maintenance of wind turbines more efficient and intelligent, and significantly improving the operating safety of wind turbines.

[0048] Example 2: Please refer to Figure 2 In the specific implementation process, this embodiment is based on the first embodiment and is different from the first embodiment in that this embodiment further provides a prediction system for the operating status of a wind turbine generator set, including:

[0049] The wind rotor speed stage division module is used to obtain the speed at which the wind rotor is driven to rotate when the current blades rotate, and to determine the wind rotor speed stage division of the current wind rotor rotation speed according to the pre-set wind rotor speed stage division rule, wherein the division results of the pre-set wind rotor speed stage division rule include: low speed stage, low-medium speed stage, medium speed stage and high speed stage;

[0050] A reference vibration range threshold determination module is used to install a vibration sensor in the gearbox and obtain a corresponding reference vibration range threshold according to the wind wheel rotation speed being in different speed stages;

[0051] Risk operation coefficient determination module: used to determine the speed stage of the current wind wheel rotation speed, obtain the corresponding reference vibration range threshold, and obtain the vibration data of the current gearbox. According to the vibration data of the current gearbox and the corresponding reference vibration range, the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox is determined;

[0052] Safety conversion factor determination module: used to obtain the speed of the wind wheel at the current moment, calculate the theoretical value of the high-speed shaft speed according to the transmission ratio of the gearbox, obtain the current high-speed shaft speed in real time, compare the current high-speed shaft speed with the theoretical high-speed shaft speed, and determine the safety conversion factor of the gearbox;

[0053] Safety factor prediction module: used to evaluate the gearbox according to the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox and the conversion coefficient of the gearbox, obtain the overall safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox, judge the safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox, and predict the operating status of the wind turbine.

[0054] Embodiment 3: This embodiment includes the entire implementation process of the above two groups of embodiments in its specific implementation process.

[0055] Some of the data in the above formulas are dimensionless and numerically calculated. Meanwhile, the contents not described in detail in this specification belong to the prior art known to those skilled in the art.

[0056] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical method of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical method of the present invention may be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical method of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the operating status of a wind turbine generator set, characterized in that: include: Step 1: First, obtain the speed at which the wind rotor is driven to rotate when the current blades rotate, and determine the current wind rotor rotation speed by dividing the wind rotor speed stage according to the pre-set wind rotor speed stage division rule, wherein the division results of the pre-set wind rotor speed stage division rule include: low speed stage, low-medium speed stage, medium speed stage and high speed stage; Step 2: Install a vibration sensor in the gearbox, and obtain the corresponding reference vibration range threshold according to the different speed stages of the wind rotor rotation speed; then determine the speed stage of the current wind rotor rotation speed, obtain the corresponding reference vibration range threshold, and obtain the vibration data of the current gearbox at the same time, and determine the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox according to the vibration data of the current gearbox and the corresponding reference vibration range; The specific method of obtaining the corresponding reference vibration range threshold is: AS1: Determine the historical data set and the speed stage of the wind wheel rotation speed, extract the vibration data set corresponding to the speed stage from the historical data set and record it as , ,in, is the vibration value of a single measurement, n is the total number of vibration data in the vibration data set; Perform denoising and normalization: ,in, and The mean and standard deviation of the vibration sensor recorded data are: , ; The historical data set includes a vibration data set of a low speed stage, a low-medium speed stage, a medium speed stage and a high speed stage; AS2: OK Vibration data set after denoising and normalization ; Calculate vibration data set The average value of , ; Calculate vibration data set The standard deviation of , ; Then preliminarily determine the normal vibration data range : ,in, is the first sensitivity coefficient; for the vibration data set Sort the data in the table from small to large and remove the data that exceeds the normal vibration range. Vibration data of; get the vibration data set after elimination ; AS3: Based on the vibration data set after elimination Sort the data in from small to large and determine the first quartile of the data and the third quartile ; Calculate the interquartile range : , then get the outlier judgment range : ,in, is the second sensitivity coefficient; in the vibration data set In the process, remove outliers beyond the judgment range. Vibration data of the filter is obtained to obtain the vibration data set after elimination ; AS4: Vibration data set after elimination , calculate the vibration data set The mean and standard deviation , and finally determine the baseline vibration range threshold as: in, is the reference vibration range threshold, is the third sensitivity coefficient; Step 3: Then obtain the speed of the wind wheel at the current moment, calculate the theoretical value of the high-speed shaft speed according to the transmission ratio of the gear box, and obtain the current high-speed shaft speed in real time, compare the current high-speed shaft speed with the theoretical high-speed shaft speed, and determine the safety conversion factor of the gear box; Step 4: Evaluate the gearbox according to its risk operation coefficient and its conversion coefficient to obtain the overall safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox, judge the gearbox safety factor evaluation value, and predict the operating status of the wind turbine.

2. A method for predicting the operating status of a wind turbine according to claim 1, characterized in that: The specific method of determining the speed stage of the current wind wheel rotation speed, obtaining the corresponding reference vibration range threshold, and obtaining the vibration data of the current gearbox, and determining the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox according to the vibration data of the current gearbox and the corresponding reference vibration range is as follows: BS1: Obtain the vibration data of the current gearbox and mark it as ; At the same time, obtain the corresponding reference vibration range , reference vibration range The range is ,in, , ; BS2: Set a deviation tolerance ;BS3: Determine the risk operating factor of the gearbox through the following steps :BS31: If : BS32: If or : ,in, is the center value of the reference range, and ; is the deviation weight coefficient; BS33: If or : ,in, Indicates the boundary point beyond the reference vibration range, or ; is the significant deviation weight coefficient, To control the risk growth rate.

3. A method for predicting the operating status of a wind turbine according to claim 2, characterized in that: In the step 3, the speed of the wind wheel at the current moment is obtained, and the theoretical value of the high-speed shaft speed is calculated according to the transmission ratio of the gear box, and the current high-speed shaft speed is obtained in real time, and the current high-speed shaft speed is compared with the theoretical high-speed shaft speed. The specific method for determining the safety conversion factor of the gear box is as follows: CS1: The theoretical value of the high-speed shaft speed is calculated by the speed of the wind wheel at the current moment and the transmission ratio of the gear box, and marked as: ; At the same time, get the current high-speed shaft speed and mark it as: ; CS2: Calculate the deviation value by the following formula: ; The deviation percentage is calculated by the following formula: : Set the risk deviation range and determine the safety conversion factor of the gearbox based on the risk deviation range.

4. A method for predicting the operating status of a wind turbine according to claim 3, characterized in that: The specific method of determining the safety conversion factor of the gearbox according to the risk deviation interval is as follows: CS31: Setting the low deviation interval: When The safety conversion factor of the gearbox is determined by the following formula: The safety conversion factor of the gearbox is determined by the following formula: in, is the safety conversion factor of the gearbox, is the low deviation weight coefficient; CS32: set the medium deviation interval: when The safety conversion factor of the gearbox is determined by the following formula: ,in, is the medium deviation weight coefficient; CS33: Set the high deviation interval: when The safety conversion factor of the gearbox is determined by the following formula: ,in, is the high deviation weight coefficient, is the risk growth factor; and , These are preset values.

5. A method for predicting the operating status of a wind turbine according to claim 4, characterized in that: In step 4, the gearbox is evaluated according to the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox and the conversion coefficient of the gearbox to obtain the overall safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox, and the safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox is judged. The specific method for predicting the operating state of the wind turbine is as follows: DS1: The overall safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox is determined by the following formula: ,in, and is the weight coefficient, which indicates the relative influence of the risk operation coefficient and the safety conversion coefficient on the overall safety; DS2: based on the overall safety factor of the gearbox is the weight coefficient, which indicates the relative influence of the risk operation coefficient and the safety conversion coefficient on the overall safety; DS2: based on the overall safety factor of the gearbox.

6. A method for predicting the operating status of a wind turbine according to claim 5, characterized in that: The step of performing graded prediction on the operating state of the gearbox comprises: if When the gearbox is in a safe operating state, it means that the wind turbine is operating normally; if If the gearbox has a slight abnormality, please pay attention to monitoring; When the gearbox is in a high-risk state, it needs to be repaired immediately. and They are the safety status threshold and risk status threshold respectively.

7. A prediction system for the operating status of a wind turbine generator set, applied to a prediction method for the operating status of a wind turbine generator set according to any one of claims 1 to 6, characterized in that: include: The wind rotor speed stage division module is used to obtain the speed at which the wind rotor is driven to rotate when the current blades rotate, and the wind rotor speed stage division is determined by the pre-set wind rotor speed stage division rules, wherein the division results of the pre-set wind rotor speed stage division rules are: low speed stage, low medium speed stage, medium speed stage and high speed stage; the reference vibration range threshold determination module is used to install a vibration sensor in the gearbox, and obtain the corresponding reference vibration range threshold according to the wind rotor rotation speed in different speed stages; the risk operation coefficient determination module is used to determine the speed stage of the current wind rotor rotation speed, obtain the corresponding reference vibration range threshold, and obtain the current The vibration data of the front gearbox is used to determine the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox according to the current gearbox vibration data and the corresponding reference vibration range; the safety conversion factor determination module is used to obtain the speed of the wind wheel at the current moment, calculate the theoretical value of the high-speed shaft speed according to the transmission ratio of the gearbox, and obtain the current high-speed shaft speed in real time, compare the current high-speed shaft speed with the theoretical high-speed shaft speed, and determine the safety conversion factor of the gearbox; the safety factor prediction module is used to evaluate the gearbox according to the risk operation coefficient of the gearbox and the conversion coefficient of the gearbox, obtain the overall safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox, judge the safety factor evaluation value of the gearbox, and predict the operating status of the wind turbine.

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