Water-carbon-economic regulation and control simulation method based on CGE and WAS models

Abstract

The invention discloses a water-carbon-economic regulation and control simulation method based on a CGE model and a WAS model, and relates to the technical field of water resource management, system modeling and simulation and environmental policy analysis. Comprising the steps of obtaining economic data, industry water consumption data, energy consumption data and carbon emission data, generating a basic data set, establishing a CGE model and a WAS model for expanding and improving a water-carbon related module, constructing a coupling module by taking regions, water sources and industry water quantities as coupling variables, generating a water-carbon-economic regulation and control simulation model, and establishing a water-carbon-economic regulation and control simulation model. And carrying out model verification to obtain a verified regulation and control simulation model, designing a regulation and control scene, and analyzing the regulation and control scene to obtain water consumption, carbon emission and economic quantity results under a regulation and control policy. According to the method, a quantitative policy analysis method is provided for water-carbon-economic regulation and control research.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical fields of water resource management, system modeling and simulation, and environmental policy analysis, and in particular to a water-carbon-economy regulation simulation method based on CGE and WAS models. Background Art

[0002] Existing water-carbon-economy regulation models are mostly based on economic models, water resources allocation models, etc. Among them, research based on economic models focuses on studying the impact of economic aspects such as added value and industrial structure under the influence of policies. There is a lack of description of the physical process of water supply and use, and it is difficult to finely characterize the impact of water under regulation on a spatial scale. Research based on water resources allocation models often fails to reflect the linkage relationship between water, carbon and economy. Building a coupling model is an effective way to solve the above problems. The coupling mechanism of the existing coupling model for economic models and water resources allocation models needs to be improved. It is urgent to solve the adaptation problems of simulation variables, spatial scales and time scales between models, and couple the flow process of water value between industries in an economic sense with the water resources supply and use process in a physical sense, so as to provide a quantitative policy analysis method for regulation research.

[0003] Therefore, it is an urgent problem for technical personnel in this field to propose a water-carbon-economy regulation simulation method based on CGE and WAS models, coupling the circulation process of water value among industries in the economic sense with the supply and use process of water resources in the physical sense, and realizing the linkage simulation of water-carbon-economy of regulatory policies. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of this, the present invention provides a water-carbon-economy regulation simulation method based on CGE and WAS models, which can achieve the effect of coupling water resources in economic and physical senses and provide a quantitative tool for research.

[0005] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solution:

[0006] A water-carbon-economy regulation simulation method based on CGE and WAS models includes the following steps:

[0007] Data acquisition steps: Obtain economic data, industry water use data, energy consumption data, and carbon emission data to generate basic data sets;

[0008] Model generation steps: Establish and expand the CGE model and WAS model of water-carbon related modules based on the basic data set;

[0009] Model coupling step: The CGE model and WAS model of the expanded and improved water-carbon related module are used to construct a coupling module with water volume by region, water source, and industry as coupling variables to generate a water-carbon-economy regulation simulation model, and the model is verified to obtain a verified regulation simulation model;

[0010] Strategy simulation steps: Design regulation scenarios based on the verified regulation simulation model, and analyze the regulation scenarios to obtain water consumption, carbon emissions and economic results under the regulation policy.

[0011] In the above method, optionally, in the model generation step, the CGE model of the water-carbon related modules is extended and improved, including: establishing a CGE model based on the basic data set, a water module and an energy module, a water-carbon accounting module and a water-carbon policy module, and combining them to generate an extended and improved CGE model of the water-carbon related modules.

[0012] In the above method, optionally, in the model generation step, the WAS model includes four modules: runoff simulation, river confluence, recycled water simulation and water resource allocation. The runoff simulation module and river confluence module are used for natural water cycle simulation, and the recycled water simulation module and water resource allocation module are used for social water cycle simulation.

[0013] In the above method, optionally, in the model coupling step, in order to solve the differences in simulation variable dimensions, spatial scales and time scales between the CGE model and the WAS model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module, a coupling module is constructed with water volume divided by region, water source and industry as coupling variables.

[0014] The above method optionally connects the intermediate input quantity of water commodities by water source and industry in the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module with the water consumption by water source and user in the WAS model in view of the differences in the dimensions of model simulation variables. When the water volume is transferred from the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module to the WAS model, the industry water volume of each region and each water source is summed up by industry, decomposed on the time scale according to the water use process curve, and decomposed on the spatial scale according to the spatial mapping relationship. When the water volume is fed back from the WAS model to the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module, the user water volume of each region and each water source is decomposed by industry and summed up on the time and space scales.

[0015] The above method, optionally, aims at the difference of model spatial scale, based on the spatial mapping relationship between the calculation units of the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module and the WAS model, establishes the relationship between the water volume of the calculation units at the scale of each provincial administrative region in the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module and the water volume of the calculation units formed by the superposition of the three-level water resource areas and the prefecture-level city administrative divisions in the WAS model; when the water volume is transferred from the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module to the WAS model, the water volume of the calculation units is decomposed; when the water volume is fed back from the WAS model to the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module, the water volume of the calculation units is summed up.

[0016] The above method optionally establishes the relationship between the total annual water consumption of the CGE model and the inter-decadal water consumption of the WAS model based on the water use process curve in view of the differences in the model time scales. When the water volume is transferred from the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module to the WAS model, the inter-annual water consumption is decomposed. When the water volume is fed back from the WAS model to the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module, the inter-decadal water consumption is summed up.

[0017] It can be seen from the above technical solution that, compared with the prior art, the present invention provides a water-carbon-economy regulation simulation method based on CGE and WAS models, which has the following beneficial effects:

[0018] The present invention aims at the problem that there is a lack of simulation methods and tools for water-carbon-economy regulation, especially the difficulty in quantitatively simulating water consumption by region, industry and water source under policy scenarios. A coupling module is constructed with water consumption by region, water source and industry as coupling variables, and the water module of the CGE model and the water resource allocation module of the WAS model are connected, so as to solve the difference problem between the CGE model and the WAS model in the simulation variable dimension, spatial scale and time scale, and realize the coupling of the flow process of water value between industries in the economic sense and the supply and use process of water resources in the physical sense. In addition, the present invention can analyze the changes in water-carbon-economy under regulatory policies, especially the changes in water consumption by region, industry and water source, and derive recommended solutions, thereby providing a quantitative simulation method for regulatory research. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0019] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on the provided drawings without paying creative work.

[0020] Figure 1 A flow chart of a water-carbon-economy regulation simulation method based on CGE and WAS models disclosed in the present invention;

[0021] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of a water-carbon-economy regulation simulation based on CGE and WAS models disclosed in the present invention;

[0022] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of model coupling disclosed in the present invention;

[0023] Figure 4a It is the regional added value impact diagram under the water control scenario disclosed in this embodiment;

[0024] Figure 4b This is a water consumption impact diagram under the water control scenario disclosed in this embodiment;

[0025] Figure 4c This is a graph showing the impact of carbon emissions under the water control scenario disclosed in this embodiment;

[0026] Figure 5a This is the regional added value impact diagram under the carbon control scenario disclosed in this embodiment;

[0027] Figure 5b This is a water consumption impact diagram under the carbon control scenario disclosed in this embodiment;

[0028] Figure 5c This is a graph showing the impact of carbon emissions under the carbon control scenario disclosed in this embodiment;

[0029] Figure 6a This is a regional added value impact diagram under the water-carbon joint control scenario disclosed in this embodiment;

[0030] Figure 6b This is a water consumption impact diagram under the water-carbon joint control scenario disclosed in this embodiment;

[0031] Figure 6c This is a graph showing the impact of carbon emissions under the water-carbon joint control scenario disclosed in this embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0032] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0033] Reference Figure 1 and Figure 2 As shown, the present invention discloses a water-carbon-economy regulation simulation method based on CGE and WAS models, comprising the following steps:

[0034] Data acquisition steps: Obtain economic data, industry water use data, energy consumption data, and carbon emission data to generate basic data sets;

[0035] Model generation steps: Establish and expand the CGE model and WAS model of water-carbon related modules based on the basic data set;

[0036] Model coupling step: The CGE model and WAS model of the expanded and improved water-carbon related module are used to construct a coupling module with water volume by region, water source, and industry as coupling variables to generate a water-carbon-economy regulation simulation model, and the model is verified to obtain a verified regulation simulation model;

[0037] Strategy simulation steps: Design regulation scenarios based on the verified regulation simulation model, and analyze the regulation scenarios to obtain water consumption, carbon emissions and economic results under the regulation policy.

[0038] Furthermore, in the model generation step, the CGE model of the water-carbon related modules is extended and improved, including: establishing a CGE model based on the basic data set, a water module and an energy module, a water-carbon accounting module and a water-carbon policy module, and combining them to generate an extended and improved CGE model of the water-carbon related modules.

[0039] Specifically, the constructed water module and energy module introduced a multi-water source structure and substitution mechanisms between various water sources and energy sources, reflecting the impact of regulatory policies on water and energy demand and industry output. The water-carbon accounting module realizes the statistical accounting of changes in water consumption and carbon emissions by region and industry. The water-carbon policy module realizes the simulation of regulatory policies with total water and carbon constraints.

[0040] The WAS model mainly includes four modules: runoff simulation, river confluence, recycled water simulation and water resource allocation. The runoff simulation module and river confluence module are used for natural water cycle simulation, and the recycled water simulation module and water resource allocation module are used for social water cycle simulation. Through real-time feedback between water resource allocation and natural water cycle process, the combined effect of natural water and water users’ water intake and drainage and the dynamic response of upstream and downstream water intake and use are realized, thus realizing the dynamic mutual feedback simulation and regulation of natural and social water resources. Among them, the social water cycle simulation process mainly includes supply, consumption, discharge and sewage treatment processes.

[0041] Further, see Figure 3 As shown in the figure, in the model coupling step, in order to solve the differences in simulation variable dimensions, spatial scales and time scales between the CGE model and the WAS model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module, a coupling module is constructed with water volume by region, water source and industry as coupling variables.

[0042] Furthermore, in view of the differences in the dimensions of model simulation variables, the intermediate input quantities of water commodities by water source and industry in the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module are connected with the water consumption by water source and user in the WAS model. When the water volume is transferred from the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module to the WAS model, the industry water volume of each region and each water source is summed up by industry, decomposed on the time scale according to the water use process curve, and decomposed on the spatial scale according to the spatial mapping relationship. When the water volume is fed back from the WAS model to the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module, the user water volume of each region and each water source is decomposed by industry and summed up on the time and space scales.

[0043] The calculation formula is as follows:

[0044]

[0045] Q CGE (ic,wt)=k ic *Q WAS (iw,wt),

[0046] Where: Q WAS (iw,wt) is the water consumption of iw users supplied by wt water source in the WAS model, Q CGE (ic,wt) is the amount of water commodity of wt water source in the CGE model that is input to the ic industry, icn is the total amount of ic industry in the CGE model corresponding to iw users in the WAS model, k ic It is the ratio coefficient of the water consumption of IC industry to the total water consumption of IW users in the CGE model.

[0047] Furthermore, in view of the differences in spatial scales of the models, based on the spatial mapping relationship between the calculation units of the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module and the WAS model, the relationship between the water volume of the calculation units at the scale of provincial administrative regions in the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module and the water consumption of the calculation units formed by the superposition of the three-level water resource areas and prefecture-level city administrative divisions in the WAS model was established. When the water volume was transferred from the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module to the WAS model, the water volume of the calculation unit was decomposed, and when the water volume was fed back from the WAS model to the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module, the water volume of the calculation unit was summed up.

[0048] Specifically, the calculation formula is as follows:

[0049] Q WAS (dw) = k dw *Q CGE (dc),

[0050]

[0051] Where: QWAS (dw) is the water consumption of the dw calculation unit in the WAS model, Q CGE (dc) is the water volume of the dc calculation unit in the CGE model, k dw is the ratio coefficient of the water consumption of the dw computing unit in the WAS model to the water consumption of the dc computing unit in the CGE model, and dwn is the total number of cu computing units in the WAS model corresponding to the dc computing unit in the CGE model.

[0052] Furthermore, in view of the differences in model time scales, the relationship between the total annual water consumption of the CGE model and the decadal water consumption of the WAS model was established based on the water use process curve. The interannual water consumption was decomposed when the water volume was transferred from the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module to the WAS model, and the decadal water consumption was summed up when the water volume was fed back from the WAS model to the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module.

[0053] Specifically, the calculation formula is as follows:

[0054] Q WAS (tw) = k tw *Q CGE (tc),

[0055]

[0056] Where: Q WAS (tw) is the water consumption in the tw period (ten-day period) in the WAS model, Q CGE (tc) is the amount of water in the tc period (interannual) in the CGE model, k tw It is the ratio coefficient of the water consumption in the tw period (decade) in the WAS model to the water consumption in the tc period (annual) in the CGE model, reflecting the characteristics of the water use process within the year. twn is the total amount of water in the tw period (decade) in the WAS model corresponding to the tc period (annual) in the CGE model. One year is 36 decades, that is, twn=36.

[0057] In summary, the study uses water volume by region, water source, and industry as coupling variables, connects the water module of the CGE model with the water resource allocation module of the WAS model, and constructs the calculation formula for the coupling module of the CGE model and the WAS model as follows:

[0058]

[0059] In a specific embodiment,

[0060] The present invention takes the area where the third-level water resource area above Datong Station in the Yangtze River Basin is located as the research area, establishes a water-carbon-economy regulation simulation model for the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and provides a model tool for the simulation and analysis of regulation scenarios. The CGE model uses provincial administrative regions as spatial calculation units and years as time scales, and the WAS model uses the third-level water resource area superimposed on the prefecture-level city administrative divisions as spatial calculation units and ten days as time scales. The constructed model is verified from the aspects of economy, water use, carbon emissions, etc. Combined with the analysis results of the key regulated industries and regulation paths in the previous article, a baseline scenario reflecting the natural development trend of the economy and society without the imposition of regulatory policies is established, as well as regulatory policy scenarios such as water control, carbon control, and water-carbon joint control.

[0061] In the data acquisition step, the study collected basic data on economy, water supply and use, energy, carbon emissions, etc. of each provincial administrative region in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, as shown in Table 1.

[0062] Table 1 Basic data of the model

[0063]

[0064]

[0065] In the model generation step, the study establishes a CGE model and a WAS model that expand and improve the water-carbon related modules based on the basic data set. The parameters of the CGE model mainly include the factor substitution elasticity, Armington elasticity, CET elasticity of the production function, the residents' demand expenditure elasticity, Frisch parameters, etc. of the consumption function. The present invention assigns the parameters of the model with reference to relevant literature. The parameters of the WAS model mainly include types such as evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsoil flow and underground runoff. The present invention refers to the relevant literature for the parameter setting results of the WAS model in the Yangtze River Basin.

[0066] In the model coupling step, the study coupled the CGE model with the WAS model as shown in Table 2, and verified the water consumption, carbon emissions and economic quantities of the coupled model.

[0067] Table 2 Simulation error of water-carbon-economy regulation simulation model

[0068]

[0069]

[0070] Judging from the simulation results, the simulation error of the coupled model in the added value of each region is between -2.95% and 3.79%, the simulation error of water consumption is between -6.96% and 8.57%, the simulation error of energy consumption is between -4.17% and 7.33%, and the simulation error of carbon emissions is between -4.62% and 6.99%, indicating that the constructed model has high accuracy and can be used to simulate regulatory policies.

[0071] In the strategy simulation step, the study used the constructed water-carbon-economy regulation simulation model to simulate the baseline and policy scenarios. The baseline scenario reflects the natural development trend of the economy and society in the study area without the impact of regulatory policies, and serves as the benchmark for policy scenario comparison. The design of the baseline scenario mainly refers to the International Monetary Fund's forecast and literature on China's economic growth rate, and combines the current status of the study area's economy, water use, energy consumption and carbon emissions to predict future growth trends. The policy scenarios include water control scenarios, carbon control scenarios and water-carbon joint control scenarios, as shown in Table 3.

[0072] Table 3 Policy scenario design

[0073]

[0074] Under the corresponding water control policy, compared with the changes in the baseline scenario, the simulation results show that the added value of residents, water consumption and carbon emissions in each province are as follows: Figure 4a-4c , as shown in Table 4, Table 5 and Table 6,

[0075] Table 4 Residents' added value under water control scenario

[0076]

[0077] Table 5 Residential water consumption under water control scenario

[0078]

[0079] Table 6 Residential carbon emissions under water control scenarios

[0080]

[0081]

[0082] Under the corresponding carbon control policy, compared with the changes in the baseline scenario, the simulation results show that the added value of residents, water consumption and carbon emissions in each province are as follows: Figure 5a-5c , as shown in Table 7, Table 8 and Table 9,

[0083] Table 7 Residents' added value under carbon control scenario

[0084]

[0085] Table 8 Residential water consumption under carbon control scenario

[0086]

[0087]

[0088] Table 9 Residential carbon emissions under carbon control scenarios

[0089]

[0090] Under the water-carbon joint control policy, compared with the changes in the baseline scenario, the simulation results show that the added value of residents, water consumption and carbon emissions in each province are as follows: Figure 6a-6c , as shown in Table 10, Table 11 and Table 12, Table 10 Residents’ added value under the water-carbon joint control scenario

[0091]

[0092] Table 11 Residential water consumption under the water-carbon joint control scenario

[0093]

[0094]

[0095] Table 12 Residential carbon emissions under the scenario of water-carbon joint control

[0096]

[0097] It can be seen from the scenario simulation results that the construction of the present invention can couple the flow process of water value between industries in the economic sense with the water supply and use process in the physical sense, and analyze the water consumption, carbon emissions and economic results of each region under the regulation policy. In particular, in terms of the water supply and use process, the water consumption changes of each calculation unit in each region are obtained. The present invention helps to provide a quantitative policy analysis method for water-carbon-economy regulation research.

[0098] The above description of the disclosed embodiments enables one skilled in the art to implement or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be apparent to one skilled in the art, and the general principles defined herein may be implemented in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention will not be limited to the embodiments shown herein, but rather to the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims

1. A water-carbon-economy regulation simulation method based on CGE and WAS models, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Data acquisition steps: Obtain economic data, industry water use data, energy consumption data, and carbon emission data to generate basic data sets; Model generation steps: Establish and expand the CGE model and WAS model of water-carbon related modules based on the basic data set; Model coupling step: The CGE model and WAS model of the expanded and improved water-carbon related modules are used to construct coupling modules with water volume by region, water source, and industry as coupling variables to generate a water-carbon-economy regulation simulation model, and the model is verified to obtain a verified regulation simulation model; Strategy simulation steps: Design regulation scenarios based on the verified regulation simulation model, and analyze the regulation scenarios to obtain water consumption, carbon emissions and economic results under the regulation policy.

2. The water-carbon-economy regulation simulation method based on CGE and WAS model according to claim 1, characterized in that: In the model generation step, the CGE model of the water-carbon related modules is extended and improved, including: establishing a CGE model based on the basic data set, a water module and an energy module, a water-carbon accounting module and a water-carbon policy module, and combining them to generate an extended and improved CGE model of the water-carbon related modules.

3. The water-carbon-economy regulation simulation method based on CGE and WAS model according to claim 1, characterized in that: In the model generation step, the WAS model includes four major modules: runoff simulation, river confluence, recycled water simulation and water resource allocation. Among them, the runoff simulation module and river confluence module are used for natural water cycle simulation, and the recycled water simulation module and water resource allocation module are used for social water cycle simulation.

4. The water-carbon-economy regulation simulation method based on CGE and WAS model according to claim 1, characterized in that: In the model coupling step, in order to address the differences in simulation variable dimensions, spatial scales and time scales between the CGE model and the WAS model of the expanded and improved water-carbon related module, a coupling module was constructed with water volume by region, water source and industry as coupling variables.

5. The water-carbon-economy regulation simulation method based on CGE and WAS model according to claim 4, characterized in that: In view of the differences in the dimensions of simulated variables in the model coupling step, the intermediate input quantities of water commodities by water source and industry in the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module are connected with the water consumption by water source and user in the WAS model. When the water volume is transferred from the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module to the WAS model, the industry water volume of each region and each water source is summed up by industry, decomposed on the time scale according to the water use process curve, and decomposed on the spatial scale according to the spatial mapping relationship. When the water volume is fed back from the WAS model to the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module, the user water volume of each region and each water source is decomposed by industry and summed up on the time and space scales.

6. The water-carbon-economy regulation simulation method based on CGE and WAS model according to claim 4, characterized in that: In view of the differences in spatial scales in the model coupling steps, based on the spatial mapping relationship between the calculation units of the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module and the WAS model, the relationship between the water volume of the calculation unit at the scale of each provincial administrative region in the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module and the water volume of the calculation unit formed by the superposition of the three-level water resource areas and the prefecture-level city administrative divisions in the WAS model was established. When the water volume was transferred from the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module to the WAS model, the water volume of the calculation unit was decomposed, and when the water volume was fed back from the WAS model to the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module, the water volume of the calculation unit was summed up.

7. The water-carbon-economy regulation simulation method based on CGE and WAS model according to claim 4, characterized in that: In view of the differences in time scales in the model coupling steps, the relationship between the total annual water use of the CGE model and the decadal water use of the WAS model was established based on the water use process curve. The interannual water use was decomposed when the water volume was transferred from the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module to the WAS model, and the decadal water use was summed up when the water volume was fed back from the WAS model to the CGE model of the extended and improved water-carbon related module.

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