Evaluation method of emergency rescue material reserve plan based on risk

Abstract

The present application relates to the field of emergency management technology, and discloses a risk-based evaluation method for emergency rescue material reserve plans. The core of the evaluation method is to comprehensively evaluate various storage modes based on the premise that the quantity and arrival time of rescue materials meet the needs of accident rescue, taking into account the probability of accidents, and taking maximizing benefits as the goal. Furthermore, the best emergency rescue material reserve plan for accident risks can be selected based on the evaluation results. Specifically, it includes: obtaining the basic parameters of the accident subject and the material sharing reserve base and the initial reserve plan as the material reserve plan; establishing an evaluation model for the material reserve plan based on the input information, the goal of the evaluation model includes minimizing the accident emergency rescue losses; solving the evaluation model based on the goal to obtain a reference reserve plan; and conducting a comparative analysis of the initial reserve plan and the reference reserve plan.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the field of emergency management technology, and in particular to a risk-based evaluation method for emergency rescue material reserve plans. Background Art

[0002] The shared reserve model of specific emergency rescue materials can effectively improve the utilization rate of specific emergency rescue materials and reduce the cost investment of related enterprises (such as coal mining enterprises) in emergency rescue materials. Taking coal mining enterprises as an example, the decision-making method for the reserve level of specific emergency rescue materials jointly reserved by coal mining enterprises and sharing centers is based on the premise that the reserve level of specific emergency rescue materials can fully guarantee the quantity demand of materials in the event of an accident in coal mining enterprises and the efficiency of specific emergency rescue materials in rescue. On this basis, by optimizing the storage, transportation and use costs of coal mining enterprises and shared reserve centers, the shared reserve plan of specific emergency rescue materials is determined. This method only considers the cost of material storage, transportation and use as an evaluation indicator, which is not comprehensive and accurate enough. Summary of the invention

[0003] The purpose of this application is to at least provide a risk-based evaluation method for emergency rescue material reserve plans, which can at least solve the problems of insufficient accuracy and / or comprehensiveness of the evaluation method for emergency rescue material reserve plans.

[0004] First, a risk-based evaluation method for emergency rescue material reserve plans is provided, including:

[0005] Obtaining basic parameters of the accident subject and the shared material reserve base and an initial reserve plan as a material reserve plan, wherein the basic parameters include the location distribution information of the accident subject and the shared material reserve base, and the initial reserve plan includes a shared reserve mode, and respective material reserve information of the accident subject and the shared material reserve base, wherein the material reserve information includes at least the type of the reserved materials, the quantity of each type of the reserved materials, and the shelf life of each of the reserved materials;

[0006] An evaluation model for a material reserve plan is established based on input information, wherein the goal of the evaluation model includes minimizing accident emergency rescue losses, the input information includes the basic parameters and the initial reserve plan, and the accident emergency rescue losses include at least one of material dispatch losses, near-expiry sales losses, delay penalty losses, and transportation losses; the evaluation model is solved based on the goal to obtain a reference reserve plan;

[0007] A comparative analysis is performed on the initial reserve plan and the reference reserve plan in terms of at least one of the following: emergency rescue material reserve level, accident rescue efficiency, accident emergency rescue losses, emergency rescue material investment costs, and material reserve redundancy.

[0008] In a second aspect, a risk-based evaluation device for emergency rescue material reserve plans is provided, comprising:

[0009] An acquisition module, used to acquire basic parameters of the accident subject and the shared material reserve base and an initial reserve plan as a material reserve plan, wherein the basic parameters include the location distribution information of the accident subject and the shared material reserve base, and the initial reserve plan includes a shared reserve mode, and respective material reserve information of the accident subject and the shared material reserve base, wherein the material reserve information includes at least the type of the reserved materials, the quantity of each type of the reserved materials, and the shelf life of each of the reserved materials;

[0010] Establishing a module, for establishing an evaluation model of a material reserve plan based on input information, wherein the goal of the evaluation model includes minimizing accident emergency rescue losses, the input information includes the basic parameters and the initial reserve plan, and the accident emergency rescue losses include at least one of material dispatch losses, near-expiry sales losses, delay penalty losses, and transportation losses; solving the evaluation model based on the goal to obtain a reference reserve plan;

[0011] The analysis module is used to compare and analyze the initial reserve plan and the reference reserve plan in terms of at least one of the following: emergency rescue material reserve level, accident rescue efficiency, accident emergency rescue losses, emergency rescue material investment costs, and material reserve redundancy.

[0012] In a third aspect, an electronic device is provided, comprising: at least one processor; and a memory communicatively connected to the at least one processor; wherein the memory stores instructions executable by the at least one processor, and the instructions are executed by the at least one processor so that the at least one processor can perform the above-mentioned evaluation method.

[0013] In a fourth aspect, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, which stores a computer program, and the computer program implements the above-mentioned evaluation method when executed by a processor.

[0014] In a fifth aspect, a computer program product is provided, comprising computer program instructions, which implement the above-mentioned evaluation method when executed by a processor. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0015] One or more embodiments are exemplarily described by the pictures in the corresponding drawings, and these exemplary descriptions do not constitute limitations on the embodiments.

[0016] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a risk-based evaluation method for emergency rescue material reserve plans in some embodiments of the present application;

[0017] Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of a prediction process of a time probability distribution of emergency rescue material demand in some embodiments of the present application;

[0018] Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of a prediction process of probability distribution of the quantity of emergency rescue supplies required in some embodiments of the present application;

[0019] Figure 4 is a block diagram of a device for evaluating a risk-based emergency rescue material reserve plan in some embodiments of the present application;

[0020] Figure 5 is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device in some embodiments of the present application;

[0021] Figure 6 is a schematic diagram of an initial reserve scheme in some embodiments of the present application;

[0022] Figure 7a is a schematic diagram comparing reserve levels in different sharing modes in some embodiments of the present application;

[0023] Figure 7b is a comparative schematic diagram of emergency rescue losses in different sharing modes in some embodiments of the present application;

[0024] Figure 7c is a comparative schematic diagram of emergency rescue losses in different sharing modes in some embodiments of the present application;

[0025] Figure 7d It is a comparative schematic diagram of material reserve redundancy in different sharing modes in some embodiments of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0026] To make the purpose, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the embodiments of the present application will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. However, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that in the present application, many technical details are proposed in order to enable the reader to better understand the present application. However, even without these technical details and various changes and modifications based on the following embodiments, the technical scheme claimed in the present application can also be implemented. The division of the following embodiments is for the convenience of description, and the specific implementation of the present application should not be construed as any limitation, and the various embodiments can be combined and referenced with each other under the premise of no contradiction.

[0027] The shared reserve mode of specific emergency rescue materials can effectively improve the utilization rate of specific emergency rescue materials and reduce the cost investment of related enterprises (such as coal mining enterprises) in emergency rescue materials. Taking coal mining enterprises as an example, the decision-making method for the reserve level of specific emergency rescue materials jointly reserved by coal mining enterprises and sharing centers is based on the premise that the reserve level of specific emergency rescue materials can fully guarantee the material quantity demand of coal mining enterprises when accidents occur and the efficiency of specific emergency rescue materials in rescue. On this basis, by optimizing the storage, transportation and use costs of coal mining enterprises and shared reserve centers, the specific emergency rescue materials shared reserve plan is determined. This method only considers the cost of material storage, transportation and use as an evaluation indicator, which has problems such as incompleteness and accuracy. Moreover, this method does not consider the possibility of accidents and the rescue losses that may be caused after accidents. Given that accidents are low-probability events, materials will be idle for a long time due to long-term non-application. If the redundancy of material reserves is too large, the storage cost of emergency materials will increase. Therefore, based on the above technical problems, the inventors of the present invention propose the material storage evaluation method of the present invention that fully considers the risk of accidents, further optimizes the emergency material storage plan, and maximizes benefits.

[0028] Specifically, the inventors of the present invention comprehensively considered the factors such as the rescue response speed, the reserve level of specific emergency rescue materials, the accident emergency rescue losses and the redundancy of the reserve level of materials under the specific emergency rescue material sharing reserve plan, and established a risk-based specific emergency rescue material sharing reserve plan evaluation model. According to the solution results of the evaluation model, the original specific emergency rescue material sharing reserve plan was compared with the best reserve plan obtained by solving the evaluation model, and then the specific emergency rescue material storage level, accident rescue efficiency, accident emergency rescue losses, specific emergency rescue material input costs and redundancy were comprehensively analyzed to achieve the evaluation of the rationality of the specific emergency rescue material reserve plan, and the evaluation results are more reliable and accurate. In addition, it can provide a basis for proposing directions and improvement measures that should be further improved in the plan.

[0029] In order to evaluate the existing shared reserve schemes, the present invention establishes an evaluation model with the purpose of minimizing the accident rescue losses. The evaluation models proposed in the present invention are mainly divided into two categories.

[0030] The first category covers situations when there is no shared reserve base, that is, after an accident occurs in a coal mine enterprise, the emergency rescue materials in its own reserve are consumed first. If there is a shortage of materials, the materials are dispatched. At this time, the accident rescue losses include: material dispatch losses, near-expiry sales losses, delayed satisfaction penalties, and transportation losses. This method does not rely on a shared reserve base, has stronger versatility, and has higher autonomy, which also increases the convenience for emergency rescue material reserves and emergency rescue itself.

[0031] The second type introduces the concept of sharing, so that each coal mining enterprise and the shared reserve base form a system. At this time, the total amount of its material reserves can meet the accident rescue material needs of these coal mining enterprises. In this case, there is only material dispatch within the system, and there is no rescue loss caused by shortage. Therefore, the accident rescue losses under the sharing model mainly include three aspects: near-expiry sales losses, delayed satisfaction penalties, and transportation losses.

[0032] Furthermore, the evaluation method of the present application proposes an evaluation model in which the accident subject reserves emergency rescue materials according to the maximum demand, that is, there is no material sharing reserve base to share reserve materials with the accident subject and the accident subject reserves emergency rescue materials according to the maximum material demand. In this case, the emergency rescue materials reserved by each coal mining enterprise can meet its own accident rescue needs and will not cause shortages. Therefore, there is no material dispatch loss, delay penalty loss and transportation loss. The emergency rescue materials reserved by the accident subject only have near-expiry sales losses due to the expiration of emergency rescue materials.

[0033] The evaluation method of the present application can be applied to, but not limited to, the evaluation of emergency rescue material reserve plans of coal mining enterprises, and can also be applied to the evaluation of emergency rescue material reserve plans of other similar enterprises. Each evaluation model proposed by the inventor of the present invention will be described in detail below.

[0034] In this application, the types of emergency rescue materials in reserve need to be determined based on the accident risk, and may vary according to different accident risks. There are specific emergency rescue materials for each accident risk. For example, taking the risk of flooding accidents in coal mines as an example, specific emergency rescue materials may include mine drainage pumps.

[0035] In addition, those skilled in the art can understand that the amount of emergency rescue materials that need to be reserved is different for different accident risks. In this application, "emergency rescue material reserve information" is used to describe the emergency rescue material reserve level, which is used to indicate the adequacy of emergency rescue material reserves, and can reflect the ability to deal with accident risks to a certain extent. For example, "emergency rescue material reserve information" can include the types of emergency rescue materials, the quantity of each type of materials, and the shelf life of each rescue material. For example, taking the emergency rescue material reserve of a coal mining enterprise to deal with the risk of flooding accidents as an example, the emergency rescue material is a mine drainage pump, and the number of pumps within the shelf life is 4. According to the relevant standards of the coal mining industry, each coal mine should be equipped with at least 3 or more drainage pumps. This example is given only for the sake of ease of understanding, and is not limited to this in practical applications. Those skilled in the art can know that different accident risks, different enterprise scales, etc. may correspond to different types and required quantities of emergency rescue materials. Therefore, the term "emergency rescue material reserve level" that appears in this article represents the adequacy of the emergency rescue materials in reserve, which needs to be determined according to different situations.

[0036] The implementation details of the evaluation method of the present application are described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. The following content is only provided for ease of understanding and is not necessary for implementing the present solution.

[0037] The evaluation method of the embodiment of the present application can be applied to electronic devices with communication, computing and data storage capabilities.

[0038] like Figure 1 As shown, the evaluation method of the risk-based emergency rescue material reserve plan according to the embodiment of the present application includes:

[0039] Step S110, obtaining basic parameters of the accident subject and the shared material reserve base and an initial reserve plan as a material reserve plan, wherein the basic parameters include the location distribution information of the accident subject and the shared material reserve base, and the initial reserve plan includes a shared reserve mode, and respective material reserve information of the accident subject and the shared material reserve base, wherein the material reserve information includes at least the type of the reserved materials, the quantity of each type of the reserved materials, and the shelf life of each of the reserved materials;

[0040] Step S120: establishing an evaluation model for a material reserve plan based on input information, wherein the goal of the evaluation model includes minimizing accident emergency rescue losses, the input information includes the basic parameters and the initial reserve plan, and the accident emergency rescue losses include at least one of material dispatch losses, near-expiry sales losses, delay penalty losses, and transportation losses;

[0041] Step S130, solving the evaluation model based on the target to obtain a reference reserve plan;

[0042] Step S140, performing comparative analysis on the initial reserve plan and the reference reserve plan in terms of at least one of the following: emergency rescue material reserve level, accident rescue efficiency, accident emergency rescue loss, emergency rescue material investment cost, and material reserve redundancy.

[0043] Therefore, accident emergency rescue losses are used as the objective function of the material reserve plan evaluation model. From the perspective of accident rescue, the accident emergency rescue losses in the accident rescue process are taken as the research object, and the degree of rescue losses is used to reflect the deficiencies in accident rescue. This is used as the basis for evaluating the emergency rescue material sharing reserve plan, and then the rationality and feasibility of the emergency rescue material sharing reserve plan can be judged from the perspective of rescue losses of accident emergency rescue. In addition, a more comprehensive evaluation is conducted in combination with the emergency rescue material reserve level, accident rescue efficiency, emergency rescue material investment cost and material reserve redundancy, thereby improving the reliability, accuracy and comprehensiveness of the evaluation results.

[0044] Here, the accident subject may be a subject that may have an accident risk, such as a coal mining enterprise. For the sake of ease of understanding and description, the accident subject is taken as an example of a coal mining enterprise.

[0045] In some embodiments, the location distribution information of the accident subject and the shared material reserve base may include the location information of the accident subject (e.g., longitude and latitude coordinates), the location information of the shared material reserve base (e.g., longitude and latitude coordinates), and the distance between the accident subject and the shared material reserve base. However, the location distribution information of the accident subject and the shared material reserve base is not limited to the example given here for the sake of ease of understanding.

[0046] In some embodiments, the basic parameters further include accident risk characteristic information for characterizing accident risk characteristics, so as to determine the corresponding emergency rescue material reserve level based on the accident risk characteristic information, wherein the accident risk characteristic information is extracted from historical accident data.

[0047] Here, the accident risk characteristics include, for example, at least one characteristic indicator that has a greater impact on the accident. Information related to the accident risk characteristics (simplified as "accident risk characteristic information" in this article) can be extracted from historical accident data. For different types of accidents, historical accident data can be analyzed from the dimension of accident risk characteristics to obtain accident risk characteristic information. Taking the water seepage accident as an example, the accident risk characteristics of the accident may include the water pressure, aquifer type, aquiclude thickness, floor damage depth and fault drop of each mine. These indicators are characteristic parameters that have a greater impact on the amount of water seepage when a water seepage accident occurs in the mine, so they can be used as characteristic indicators, that is, as accident risk characteristics. The specific values ​​of these indicators in the collected historical accident data can be used as accident risk characteristic information. Those skilled in the art should understand that for different types of accidents, the accident risk characteristics are different, and the information used to characterize the accident risk characteristics is of course different.

[0048] In some embodiments, the shared reserve mode may include: a sharing mode with a shared reserve base for materials and a sharing mode with a shared reserve base for materials and multiple accident entities.

[0049] The sharing model with a material sharing reserve base refers to a material sharing reserve base providing shared reserve materials to multiple corresponding accident entities, that is, the "one sharing to multiple accident entities" sharing model.

[0050] The material sharing reserve base and the multi-accident subject sharing model refers to a material sharing reserve base and multiple accident subjects providing shared reserve materials to one accident subject, that is, the "multiple sharing to one accident subject" sharing model. In other words, the accident subjects around the accident subject also store specific emergency rescue materials. In the absence of an accident, they can also serve as a material sharing reserve base to dispatch emergency rescue materials to the accident subject to respond to accident rescue.

[0051] Under the above two sharing modes, the accident subject and the shared material reserve base constitute a system, and the entire system is taken as the evaluation and analysis object. In this case, since the total amount of material reserves can meet the needs of accident rescue, after the accident occurs, the accident emergency rescue losses only consider the near-expiry sales losses caused by the expiration of the reserved emergency rescue materials during the accident rescue, that is, the material scheduling losses, delay penalty losses and transportation losses are all 0, thereby establishing the objective function of the material reserve plan evaluation model under such a sharing mode.

[0052] In addition, the shared reserve model can also include: a shared model without a shared reserve base for materials, and a shared model with the maximum reserve quantity of the accident subject (that is, the accident subject reserves materials according to the maximum demand).

[0053] The sharing model without a shared material reserve base refers to the situation where there is no shared material reserve base to share reserve materials with the accident subject or the shared material reserve base does not share reserve materials with the accident subject. That is, after an accident occurs in a coal mining enterprise, it first consumes its own reserve emergency rescue materials. If there is a shortage of materials, the materials will be dispatched. At this time, the accident emergency rescue losses include: material dispatch losses, near-expiry sales losses, delayed satisfaction penalties and transportation losses.

[0054] The sharing mode of the maximum reserve quantity of the accident subject means that there is no situation where the material sharing reserve base shares reserve materials with the accident subject, and the accident subject reserves emergency rescue materials according to the maximum material demand. In this case, the emergency rescue materials reserved by each coal mining enterprise can meet its own accident rescue needs, and there will be no shortage of materials. Therefore, there is no loss of material dispatch, delay penalty loss and transportation loss. The emergency rescue materials reserved by the accident subject only have the loss of near-expiry sales due to the expiration of emergency rescue materials.

[0055] In some embodiments, the solution of the evaluation model may also include the numerical values ​​of the following items corresponding to the initial reserve plan and the reference reserve plan: the quantity of emergency rescue material reserves, accident rescue efficiency, accident emergency rescue losses, emergency rescue material investment costs and material reserve redundancy, so as to facilitate rapid comparative analysis of the initial reserve plan and the reference reserve plan.

[0056] In some embodiments, the material reserve plan decision model can be used to determine the emergency rescue material reserve plan, with the constraint conditions of fully ensuring the material quantity demand when an accident occurs in a coal mining enterprise and the efficiency of the rescue of specific emergency rescue materials, and with the goal of minimizing the total investment cost of the accident subject and the material sharing reserve base.

[0057] Taking the coal mining enterprise as the main body of the accident as an example, in the reserve plan for the coal mining enterprise and the material sharing reserve base to jointly reserve specific emergency rescue materials (referred to as the "initial reserve plan" in this article), only the material sharing reserve base will conduct accident rescue and dispatch emergency rescue materials to the accident site after an accident occurs in a certain coal mining enterprise. However, the coal mining enterprises around the accident coal mining enterprise also store specific emergency rescue materials. In the absence of an accident, they can also be regarded as a material sharing reserve base to dispatch emergency rescue materials to the accident coal mining enterprise to respond to the accident rescue. Therefore, the accident rescue mode of "one sharing for multiple coal mines" can be transformed into "multiple sharing for one coal mine". The transformation of this mode can not only reduce the overall material reserve level and optimize the redundancy of the material reserve level, but also reduce the overall material input level to a certain extent.

[0058] Therefore, by changing the accident rescue mode to "multiple sharing for one accident subject", not only can the overall material reserve level be reduced and the redundancy of the material reserve level be optimized, but also the overall material input level can be reduced to a certain extent. And through the evaluation method of this application, the initial reserve plan can be comprehensively and reliably evaluated from multiple aspects such as the number of emergency rescue material reserves, accident rescue efficiency, accident emergency rescue losses, emergency rescue material input costs and material reserve redundancy.

[0059] In the present application, the total investment cost of multiple accident entities and a shared material reserve base includes the storage, transportation and use costs of all materials of the multiple accident entities and the shared material reserve base.

[0060] According to some embodiments of the present application, step S110, obtaining an initial reserve plan for the accident subject and the shared reserve base for materials, includes:

[0061] Taking the reduction of the total material reserve quantity of multiple accident entities and material sharing reserve bases as the constraint condition and minimizing the total input cost of multiple accident entities and material sharing reserve bases as the goal, the material reserve plan decision model is adjusted, in which the material sharing reserve base can share the reserve materials with the accident entities;

[0062] Obtain the initial reserve plan for the accident subject and the material shared reserve base determined by the adjusted material reserve plan decision model.

[0063] The core of the evaluation method according to the embodiment of the present application is to comprehensively evaluate various storage modes based on the premise that the quantity and arrival time of rescue materials meet the needs of accident rescue, taking into account the probability of accidents, and taking the goal of maximizing benefits. Furthermore, based on the evaluation results, the best emergency rescue material storage plan for accident risks can be selected.

[0064] According to some embodiments of the present application, the evaluation model of the material reserve plan may include a first evaluation model for the material reserve plan without a shared center. The first evaluation model is an inventory decision model that adopts a material scheduling strategy and a near-expiry sales strategy. The first evaluation model is solved to obtain a first reference reserve plan. The shared reserve mode of the first reference reserve plan is that the material sharing reserve base does not share the reserve materials with the accident subject. The goal of the first evaluation model includes minimizing the loss of material scheduling. Loss of sales near expiration , Delay penalty loss and transportation losses : That is, min ( ). Due to the lack of sharing, the coal mining enterprise's own material reserves can be increased compared to the case of a shared center, but with higher versatility.

[0065] When the material sharing reserve base does not exist or the material sharing reserve base does not share the reserve materials with the accident subject, the first evaluation model of the specific emergency rescue material reserve plan is established, and the expiration sales strategy is adopted to avoid the expiration risk. When the emergency materials have a remaining validity period, the supply information is released or the emergency demand information is accepted from other coal mining enterprises, so as to reduce the accident emergency rescue losses caused by the expiration of specific emergency rescue materials. Each coal mining enterprise optimizes the inventory by strategies such as price reduction promotion, return and recycling of the remaining inventory. For a certain type of specific emergency rescue materials of coal mining enterprises, when the specific emergency rescue materials have a remaining validity period, the supply information is released or the emergency demand information is accepted from other enterprises, and the expiration sales strategy is used to avoid the expiration risk.

[0066] The evaluation model of the joint reserve plan for specific emergency rescue materials in this mode refers to an inventory decision model that adopts material scheduling strategy and near-expiry sales strategy. The objective function is to minimize the loss of emergency rescue. :

[0067]

[0068] in, , the upper bound of the random demand for emergency relief supplies and the lower bound is , the amount of material reserves of coal mining enterprises is .

[0069] The inventory decision model includes three scenarios:

[0070] (1) The latest time for selling goods When demand occurs within a certain time and the demand is small, a rotation will be performed due to the surplus of specific emergency relief supplies. The rotation processing volume is , the value loss caused by the sale of unit materials is , The quantity of emergency rescue materials required during the accident rescue process. is the unit material rescue value rate, r is the unit material market value rate, T is the time when the accident occurred, t The time when the accident occurred.

[0071] (2) When When demand occurs within a certain time period and the physical reserves cannot meet the demand, shared scheduling occurs, and the shared scheduling loss of the unit shortage material is , the scheduling quantity is , unit delayed satisfaction penalty , unit transportation loss .

[0072] (3) When When no emergency occurs within a certain period of time, the strategy of selling the specific emergency relief materials in physical reserve is adopted. This situation can be further subdivided into the following: (i) If there is a small demand during the time period, the inventory Specific emergency relief supplies There is rescue value inside. The rescue value is reflected in the unit, and the value loss caused by the sale of materials is , and the number The supplies are The rescue value is reflected in the content, and the loss of unit material sales value is ; (ii) When there is a large demand during a period of time and the physical reserves cannot meet the demand, the sales of goods before expiration will be Quantity of specific emergency relief supplies The value of the unit material sales is ,because Restock at all times, and the shared scheduling quantity is , the shared scheduling loss is , unit delayed satisfaction penalty , unit transportation loss (iii) No emergency occurs within the time window, and all quantities of specific emergency relief supplies expire and therefore have no rescue value. The unit sales loss value of the supplies is .

[0073] According to some embodiments of the present application, the evaluation model of the material reserve plan may also include a second evaluation model of the material reserve plan under the sharing situation of the material sharing reserve base. The second evaluation model is solved to obtain a second reference reserve plan. The shared reserve mode of the second reference reserve plan is that the material sharing reserve base can share the reserve materials with the accident subject. The goal of the second evaluation model includes minimizing the loss of near-expiry sales: that is, min .

[0074] Because of sharing (one sharing center, i.e., material sharing reserve base, can correspond to multiple coal mining enterprises), the quantity of material reserves is reduced, but the redundancy of material reserves needs to be considered.

[0075] Under the material sharing model of establishing a material sharing reserve base, when an accident occurs, only material transportation occurs within the entire system, and the emergency material sharing reserve base transports emergency rescue materials to the coal mining enterprise where the accident occurred. Since the coal mining enterprise and the sharing center are regarded as a whole, the sensitivity to the material transportation time during the accident rescue is low, so the material loss caused by the material time is not considered. At this time, the coal mining enterprise and the material sharing reserve base are a system, and the material reserves are sufficient to meet the rescue, and there will be no shortage of goods. Therefore, in this case, the emergency rescue losses mainly include the loss of near-expiry sales.

[0076] According to some embodiments of the present application, the evaluation model of the material reserve plan may include a third evaluation model of the material reserve plan under the situation of multi-coal mine material sharing. The third evaluation model is solved to obtain a third reference reserve plan. The sharing mode of the third reference reserve plan is that multiple accident subjects can share reserve materials with each other, and the material sharing reserve base can share reserve materials with multiple accident subjects. The goal of the third evaluation model includes minimizing the loss of near-expiry sales: min .

[0077] If we only consider the coal mining enterprise after the accident, only the material sharing reserve base will share materials to meet the emergency rescue process for specific emergency rescue materials. In this case, the material sharing reserve base needs to reserve a large amount of materials, which will cause excess reserves of materials to a certain extent, leading to resource waste. However, by introducing a sharing method for multiple coal mining enterprises to share specific emergency rescue materials, without considering the sensitivity of material demand, by introducing a multi-coal mine sharing model, the material reserve amount of the material sharing reserve base can be reduced, the overall material reserve level redundancy can be reduced, resources can be saved, and resource utilization can be improved. In other words, the present invention expands the concept of material sharing reserve bases sharing materials with multiple coal mining enterprises to include material sharing reserve bases sharing materials with multiple coal mining enterprises and sharing materials between multiple coal mining enterprises.

[0078] When establishing an emergency rescue material reserve plan shared by multiple coal mines, multiple coal mines are regarded as a whole, a system, and the entire system is taken as the evaluation and analysis object. In this case, since the total amount of material reserves can meet accident rescue, after an accident occurs, the accident emergency rescue losses only consider the near-expiry sales losses caused by the expiration of the reserved emergency rescue materials, that is, the material dispatch loss, delay penalty loss and transportation loss are all 0.

[0079] According to some embodiments of the present application, the evaluation model of the material reserve plan may also include a fourth evaluation model of the material reserve plan under the condition of the maximum number of material reserves of the coal mining enterprise. The fourth evaluation model is solved to obtain a fourth reference reserve plan, the sharing mode of the fourth reference reserve plan is that the material sharing reserve base does not share the reserve materials with the accident subject, and the material reserve quantity of the accident subject is the maximum reserve quantity, and the goal of the fourth evaluation model includes minimizing the loss of near-expiry sales: that is, min .

[0080] In order to compare and analyze the advantages of the shared center emergency rescue material sharing model and the multi-coal mine sharing model during accident rescue, the situation of no sharing and each coal mine enterprise reserves emergency rescue materials according to the maximum material demand is introduced when evaluating the shared reserve plan (corresponding to the fourth evaluation model). In this case, the emergency rescue materials reserved by each coal mine enterprise can meet its own accident rescue needs, and there will be no shortage of materials. Therefore, there is no loss of material dispatch, delay penalty loss and transportation loss. The emergency rescue materials reserved by each coal mine enterprise only have the loss of near-expiry sales due to the expiration of emergency rescue materials.

[0081] In some embodiments, the function of accident emergency rescue loss includes the following parameters:

[0082] The quantity of materials stored by the accident subject and the shared material storage base; the probability distribution function of the time when the accident occurs ,in, t is the time when the accident occurred; the demand quantity distribution function of emergency rescue materials during the accident rescue process ,in, is the demand quantity of emergency rescue materials during the accident rescue process; the upper bound of the random demand time of emergency rescue materials and lower bound ; The upper bound of the random demand for emergency relief supplies c and lower bound d ; Unit material expiration loss rate ; Unit material rescue value rate ; Shelf life of materials T ;Unit price of materials S ;Latest sales time ; The latest sales time ratio of materials ; Unit material market value rate r ; Share the value of dispatching materials p ; Penalty for delayed delivery of unit materials ; Average speed of material dispatch v tr ; Emergency dispatch time tr .

[0083] Considering a coal mine enterprise's specific emergency rescue material single-cycle inventory management system, the research object is the same batch of specific emergency rescue materials, the decision-making subject is the coal mine specific emergency rescue material reserve, and the decision-making subject needs to be made on the specific emergency rescue material reserve quantity. The decision-making environment is characterized by the time required for specific emergency relief supplies. Specific emergency relief supplies required The high uncertainty of is the value of the random variable of the time when the emergency demand occurs. , b As the upper and lower bounds of the random demand time, ; is the value of the random variable of the emergency demand quantity, , As the upper and lower bounds of the random demand quantity, .

[0084] The rescue value rate of specific emergency rescue materials is determined by the unit price and shelf life, and has a nonlinear effect on the optimal inventory level and the minimum expected loss. When the rescue value rate of specific emergency rescue materials is small, the shelf life of specific emergency rescue materials is long, the expiration loss is small, and the baseline model that maintains a high inventory level has an advantage. However, as the rescue value rate of specific emergency rescue materials increases, the expiration loss of specific emergency rescue materials increases. The shared scheduling strategy can reduce the risk of out-of-stock at a lower shared scheduling cost and balance the increased expiration loss by reducing the inventory level. Under the mixed strategy of shared scheduling and near-expiry sales, specific emergency rescue materials can avoid expiration risks through near-expiry sales strategies, so the ability to balance the increase in expiration losses is greater, and the total expected loss increases with the increase in the rescue value rate. Small increments.

[0085] The shelf life of specific emergency relief supplies As the time window of the study, the emergency rescue value of specific emergency rescue materials is evenly distributed within the time window, and the unit material rescue value rate is Defined as the price of goods S and time window T Ratio of:

[0086] .

[0087] The market value of specific emergency relief supplies decreases with the storage time. If there is no demand within the time window, the specific emergency relief supplies in stock will expire. A higher unit material expiration loss rate is set. , market value rate Satisfy the following formula:

[0088] .

[0089] After an emergency occurs, an inventory management strategy is implemented to rotate specific emergency rescue materials. The emergency rescue losses within the time window are caused by the shortage and expiration of the reserve level of this batch of specific emergency rescue materials. The objective function is to minimize the emergency rescue losses. The study does not consider the cost of inventory. Since the impact of unit inventory cost on the optimal inventory decision is linear, the inventory cost can be transferred to the emergency rescue value calculation.

[0090] An evaluation method for a storage plan for specific emergency rescue materials jointly stored by a coal mining enterprise and a material sharing reserve base proposed in an embodiment of the present application fully considers the waste of specific emergency rescue material resources and the resulting economic losses caused by the storage cycle and validity period of the specific emergency rescue materials. In order to mitigate the size of this loss, when evaluating and analyzing the storage plan for specific emergency rescue materials jointly stored by coal mining enterprises and shared bases, measures such as near-expiry sales are considered to mitigate economic losses during the storage process. The basic parameter of the latest sales ratio is introduced here, and the latest sales ratio is a key influencing factor in the near-expiry sales strategy. For a certain type of specific emergency rescue materials of coal mining enterprises, when the specific emergency rescue materials release supply information or accept emergency demand information released by other enterprises when there is a period of validity left, a near-expiry sales strategy is used to avoid expiration risks. Because the specific emergency rescue materials sold at the near-expiry date face conventional demand, the remaining shelf life of the materials cannot be less than a period of time, which is defined as the latest sales time , the supplier releases the supply information and completes the supply and demand matching within the latest sales time, is the latest sales time ratio value, as a decision variable, there are In the market environment, it is possible to The market value rate at the moment is:

[0091] .

[0092] Due to the randomness of coal mine emergencies, the demand range of emergency materials is estimated, and it is found that the upper bound of random demand time has a nonlinear effect on the minimum expected loss. And under the benchmark model and the shared scheduling-imminent sales model, the upper bound of demand time has a linear effect on the optimal inventory level.

[0093] The smaller the upper bound of demand time is, the higher the probability of sudden time occurring in the inventory cycle is, and a higher inventory level needs to be maintained to avoid the risk of out-of-stock. The larger the upper bound of demand time is, the lower the probability of sudden time occurring in the inventory cycle is, and the optimal inventory level is reduced accordingly to avoid the risk of expiration.

[0094] In some embodiments, the total loss of accident emergency rescue is used as the objective function of a specific emergency rescue material evaluation model, which mainly includes four aspects: material dispatch loss, near-expiry sales loss, delayed satisfaction penalty and transportation loss.

[0095] When coal mine enterprises have material needs after an accident, due to the insufficient material reserves of the coal mine enterprises themselves, when the coal mine enterprises have exhausted their own specific emergency rescue materials, they will have a demand for specific emergency rescue materials reserved in other material reserve bases, and at this time, the dispatch of specific emergency rescue materials will be generated. When dispatching specific emergency rescue materials, the specific emergency rescue materials of other material reserve bases play a role, that is, the specific emergency rescue materials reserved in other material reserve bases play their own value. From the preparation and storage of the material reserves of the reserve base to the transportation of the specific emergency rescue materials to the coal mine in need, the shared dispatch loss can be roughly understood as the loss of the coal mine enterprises replenishing the specific emergency rescue materials from the material reserve base at a lower purchase loss; since the market value of specific emergency rescue materials will decrease with the increase of reserve time, the market value of the specific emergency rescue materials dispatched from the reserve base is difficult to determine. During the effective period of the reserve of specific emergency rescue materials, the decreasing value of its own value can be roughly understood as a linear relationship related to the reserve time.

[0096] Market value of materials in the material reserve base:

[0097] .

[0098] in: : represents the market value of materials in the material sharing reserve base; T : Shelf life of specific emergency relief supplies; t : Represents the reserve time of specific emergency relief supplies.

[0099] If 30% of the material call compensation is taken into account, the value of shared dispatch materials can be defined as ; Some relevant studies have set the purchase price of specific emergency rescue materials during accident rescue as This patent takes the most unfavorable situation into consideration when conducting accident rescue analysis, so the expiration purchase price of specific emergency rescue materials is pessimistic situation.

[0100] Taking the shelf life T of specific emergency rescue materials as the research object, the dispatch of emergency rescue materials can be divided into two situations:

[0101] (1) If a coal mining enterprise sells the specific emergency relief supplies before the latest sales date, When demand occurs within a certain period of time and the amount of emergency materials stored by the coal mining enterprise itself cannot meet the demand, shared scheduling will occur. The loss of shared scheduling of unit shortage materials is , the scheduling quantity is ;

[0102] (2) If the coal mining enterprise sells the specific emergency relief materials before the latest sales date, No demand occurs during the time When there is a large demand during a period of time and the coal mining enterprise’s own reserve materials cannot meet the demand, the coal mining enterprise will sell the materials at the expiration date. Quantity of specific emergency relief supplies The value of the unit material sales is ,because Restock at all times, and the shared dispatch quantity is , the shared scheduling loss is ;

[0103] In summary: Losses in dispatching emergency rescue materials It can be expressed as:

[0104]

[0105] However, under the material sharing model, each coal mining enterprise and the shared reserve base are regarded as an integral system. In this case, in the existing shared reserve plan, the total reserve of specific emergency rescue materials is sufficient to meet the accident rescue material needs of all coal mining enterprises, so there is no material dispatch loss in the entire sharing system.

[0106] In coal mining enterprises, near-expiry sales losses can be specifically reflected in the management of the reserve of specific emergency rescue materials. For example, certain specific emergency rescue materials (such as medicines and rescue equipment) have an expiration date. If they are not used in time, they may become ineffective or expired, resulting in inventory losses. In order to reduce this loss, coal mining enterprises should regularly check the expiration date of materials, rationally plan reserves, and ensure that the materials can be used within the validity period. When specific emergency rescue materials are approaching their shelf life, coal mining enterprises or shared bases may need to sell them at a discount to avoid losses caused by expiration, thereby affecting profits. Here, near-expiry sales losses specifically refer to the losses caused by the release of supply information or the acceptance of emergency demand information released by other enterprises when specific emergency rescue materials have a remaining validity period, and the low-price sales.

[0107] Under the specific emergency relief material sharing model, the loss of sales of specific accident rescue emergency relief materials will occur as follows:

[0108] (1) When When demand occurs within a certain time and the demand is small, a rotation will be performed due to the surplus of specific emergency relief supplies. The rotation processing volume is , the value loss caused by the sale of unit materials is .

[0109] (2) When If no emergency occurs in coal mining enterprises within a certain period of time, the strategy of selling the specific emergency rescue materials in physical reserve will be adopted. If there is a small demand during the time period, the inventory Specific emergency relief supplies There is rescue value inside. The rescue value is reflected in the unit, and the value loss caused by the sale of materials is , and the number The supplies are The rescue value is reflected in the content, and the loss of unit material sales value is ;

[0110] (3) If no emergency occurs within the time window T, all specific emergency relief supplies will expire and therefore have no rescue value. The unit material sales loss value is .

[0111] In summary, the near-expiry sales losses generated under the shared reserve model of specific emergency relief supplies can be expressed as:

[0112]

[0113] From the perspective of emergency rescue situations, it is necessary to consider the impact of the material dispatch time of the shared reserve base and the distance between shared reserve entities on emergency rescue activities after the accident. Only when the material demand is met in a timely manner through various means during the emergency stage, can the ideal effect of specific emergency rescue materials be achieved. Therefore, the penalty for delayed satisfaction will increase over time. The timeliness and shortage loss of specific emergency rescue materials determine the size of the penalty for delayed satisfaction. Assuming that an emergency occurs at time 0, The emergency response phase corresponding to the moment generates specific demand for emergency rescue supplies. The specific emergency relief supplies lose their effectiveness and the upper limit of the loss due to shortage occurs at that moment , is the material importance coefficient, then the unit delays the satisfaction penalty Emergency dispatch time The relationship is as follows.

[0114]

[0115] After an accident occurs in a coal mining enterprise, the losses caused by transportation time are mainly manifested in the following aspects:

[0116] (1) If a coal mining enterprise sells the specific emergency relief supplies before the latest sales date, When demand occurs within a certain period of time and the amount of emergency materials stored by the coal mining enterprise itself cannot meet the demand, shared scheduling will occur, and the amount of materials scheduled is , the penalty for delayed satisfaction is ;

[0117] (2) If the coal mining enterprise sells the specific emergency relief materials before the latest sales date, No demand occurs during the time When there is a large demand during a period of time and the coal mining enterprise’s own reserve materials cannot meet the demand, the coal mining enterprise will sell the materials at the expiration date. Quantity of specific emergency relief supplies The value of the unit material sales is ,because Restock at all times, and the quantity of shared dispatched materials is , the penalty for delayed satisfaction is ;

[0118] In summary, the penalty loss for delayed emergency rescue for a specific accident can be expressed as:

[0119]

[0120] Set a shipping loss cost Used to indicate the economic expenditure incurred in the transportation of specific emergency relief materials.

[0121]

[0122] Where: To schedule transportation distance; For road freight; The weight of specific emergency relief supplies.

[0123] Taking vehicle dispatch as the mode of transport, the average travel speed is , the specific emergency relief material loading and unloading time is set to , the emergency dispatch time meets:

[0124]

[0125] During the accident rescue process, the transportation costs mainly include the following situations:

[0126] (1) If a coal mining enterprise sells the specific emergency relief supplies before the latest sales date, When demand occurs within a certain period of time and the amount of emergency materials stored by the coal mining enterprise itself cannot meet the demand, shared dispatching behavior will occur, dispatching a specific amount of emergency rescue materials. , unit transportation loss ;

[0127] (2) If the coal mining enterprise sells the specific emergency relief materials before the latest sales date, No demand occurs during the time When there is a large demand during a period of time and the coal mining enterprise’s own reserve materials cannot meet the demand, the coal mining enterprise will sell the materials at the expiration date. Quantity of specific emergency relief supplies The value of the unit material sales is ,because Restock at all times and share the specific emergency relief supplies in quantity , unit transportation loss ;

[0128] In summary, the loss of emergency rescue transportation for a specific accident can be expressed as:

[0129] =

[0130]

[0131] Loss of sales near expiration The function is:

[0132] ;

[0133] Delay Penalty Loss The function is:

[0134] ,in, The quantity of materials to be sold at the expiration date, and the penalty for delayed materials sold by the unit c l The function is:

[0135] , where an emergency occurs at time 0, The emergency response phase corresponding to the moment generates demand for emergency rescue supplies. The emergency rescue supplies lose their function and the loss limit is generated when there is a shortage of supplies , is the material importance coefficient;

[0136] Transportation loss The function is:

[0137] =

[0138] ,

[0139] in, The loss of unit material transportation, , To schedule transportation distance; For road freight; is the unit material weight, The quantity of materials that are about to be sold.

[0140] According to some embodiments of the present application, obtaining the probability distribution function of the time of the accident and the distribution function of the quantity of emergency rescue materials required during the accident rescue process includes:

[0141] Acquire historical accident related data, including historical accident types, historical accident occurrence times, and historical accident rescue material demand data;

[0142] Based on the historical accident types and the time of historical accident occurrence, determine the time probability distribution function of the accident occurrence;

[0143] Based on the relevant data on the demand for emergency rescue materials during historical accident rescue processes, the demand quantity distribution function for emergency rescue materials during accident rescue processes is determined.

[0144] The occurrence of coal mine accidents is highly uncertain. Therefore, when conducting accident rescue for coal mine accidents, the preparation of specific emergency rescue materials involved in accident rescue must fully consider the uncertainty of accidents. Considering the low probability of coal mine emergencies and the short shelf life of specific emergency rescue materials, it is assumed that at most one coal mine emergency occurs within the shelf life of specific emergency rescue materials to avoid the complexity of solving the problem caused by the "dimensional disaster".

[0145] The high uncertainty of the occurrence of accidents also determines the uncertainty of the demand for specific emergency rescue materials during accident rescue, which is mainly manifested in two aspects, namely: the uncertainty of the time of demand for specific emergency rescue materials and the uncertainty of the quantity of specific emergency rescue materials required during accident rescue. Therefore, in view of the uncertainty of coal mine emergencies, the present invention uses random demand time function and random demand quantity function to simulate the specific emergency rescue material demand of coal mining enterprises. In this application, by collecting historical data on coal mine accidents, analyzing, sorting and fitting the historical data, a probability distribution function that can reflect the probability of accident occurrence and the probability of material demand is obtained in the study, providing a basic basis for further evaluation of shared reserve plans.

[0146] When considering and analyzing from the perspective of time, the demand of coal mining enterprises for specific emergency rescue materials is directly related to the occurrence of coal mine accidents. Therefore, analyzing the demand for specific emergency rescue materials for accident rescue in the time dimension is equivalent to analyzing the probability of accidents occurring in coal mining enterprises in the time dimension.

[0147] When analyzing the probability of an accident in a particular coal mine enterprise, historical data such as the number of accidents and the time of accident occurrence in recent years of each coal mine enterprise and coal mine enterprises of the same or similar size are collected. By analyzing the historical data, the law of accident development is determined, and the functional relationship between accident occurrence and coal mine production time is obtained. , thereby realizing the prediction of the probability of target coal mine accidents. Figure 2 As shown, the specific steps are as follows:

[0148] (1) Historical data collection and analysis. By collecting relevant data on specific accidents that have occurred in coal mining enterprises in the past (such as coal mine floods, gas accidents, etc.), such as the number of accidents, the specific time of accidents, the frequency of accidents, and the time interval between accidents, etc., and conducting statistical analysis on historical data, a preliminary probability distribution model of the time required for accident rescue is established. Further analysis is conducted on the time patterns of historical events, the time required for specific emergency rescue materials in accident rescue, and other data, which are used as the basis for establishing the model.

[0149] (2) Analysis of demand time uncertainty. The uncertainty of demand time mainly comes from the unpredictability of coal mine emergencies. The demand time of specific emergency rescue materials can be assumed to obey a certain probability distribution, such as negative exponential distribution, normal distribution or Poisson distribution. By conducting statistical analysis on the time interval between accidents, a basis for determining the demand time distribution can be provided. Function hypothesis and test: Common probability distribution functions (such as normal distribution, uniform distribution, negative exponential distribution) can be used to model the time interval between coal mine accidents. According to the actual characteristics of coal mine accident emergency response, an appropriate probability distribution is selected and verified and simulated.

[0150] (3) Demand time probability distribution function Forecast model adjustment. To cope with the uncertainty of demand time, robust optimization methods can be used to build a robust model through the distribution assumptions under the most unfavorable conditions. This method helps to ensure the stability and feasibility of the model solution when the emergency rescue demand time is uncertain; through parameter values ​​such as time intervals, mean and variance of demand quantity, to optimize inventory and material reserve strategies.

[0151] The specific emergency rescue materials stored by coal mining enterprises and shared bases are idle when no accidents occur. Only after a specific accident occurs in the coal mining enterprises will there be a demand for the stored specific emergency rescue materials. That is, during the entire storage cycle of the specific emergency rescue materials, after a specific accident occurs, there will be a demand for the specific emergency rescue materials only during the accident rescue period, and the demand for materials is within a certain range.

[0152] The random forest model is used to analyze time series data, and the time dependency in the data is captured by creating lag features to predict the demand for specific emergency rescue materials during the accident rescue process. The prediction results are fitted with function distributions (including negative exponential distribution, normal distribution, or Poisson distribution, etc.) to obtain the parameters of the demand probability distribution function, thereby quantifying the uncertainty of the prediction. The method of data statistical induction can be used to evaluate the accuracy of the model by comparing actual demand with predicted demand. During the accident rescue process, the demand pattern of specific emergency rescue materials is determined by statistically analyzing the historical data on the demand for specific emergency rescue materials. Figure 3 As shown, the specific steps are as follows:

[0153] (1) Collection and analysis of historical data: First, it is necessary to collect material demand data from previous emergency events, especially the specific quantity of relief materials required. By analyzing these historical data, we can obtain some statistical characteristics, including the mean, maximum, minimum, fluctuation range and variance of the quantity required. These data characteristics provide a basis for the subsequent probability distribution hypothesis and prediction, and can help us find a suitable distribution form to characterize the changing trend of the quantity required.

[0154] (2) Probability distribution of demand quantity Assumption: In determining the probability distribution of the demand quantity When using the Poisson distribution, common assumptions include Poisson distribution, normal distribution, and uniform distribution. The specific distribution form should be selected according to the characteristics of historical data: Poisson distribution is usually suitable for describing the scenario of the number of events, especially when the number of material demands is random and the intervals are short. This distribution is very suitable for scenarios with high frequency of demand for emergency materials in a short period of time. Normal distribution is suitable for situations where the demand quantity is concentrated near a certain value, with small fluctuations but still a certain degree of randomness. Uniform distribution can be used when there is no obvious pattern or the data is sparse, assuming that the demand quantity is randomly distributed within a certain range.

[0155] (3) Parameter estimation and optimization: In order to make the probability distribution of demand quantity The model is more accurate, and the distribution parameters of the demand quantity need to be estimated according to the actual situation. Common estimation methods include maximum likelihood estimation and least squares method. If historical data is limited, these parameters can be reasonably estimated in combination with expert opinions or industry standards. For example, based on actual operating experience, the upper and lower limits, mean and standard deviation of the demand quantity can be determined.

[0156] (4) Robust optimization and worst-case scenario considerations: The uncertainty of emergency material demand is often related to the complexity of disaster events. Therefore, a robust optimization method can be introduced during modeling, assuming the worst-case demand scenario. This method can ensure that when there are large fluctuations in the quantity of material demand, the model can still provide a solution with a certain degree of robustness, thereby ensuring the safety and flexibility of inventory decisions.

[0157] (5) Simulation and model adjustment: Finally, different demand distribution assumptions are tested and verified through simulation tools to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of the model. Simulation can help identify deficiencies in the demand quantity distribution model, especially its ability to cope with extreme scenarios. Model parameters are continuously optimized based on simulation results to ensure that the demand probability distribution model can match the actual emergency demand.

[0158] In some embodiments, MATLAB can be used, for example, to solve and obtain reference reserve plans under different evaluation models. Then, based on the evaluation index, the initial reserve plan and the reference reserve plan are compared and analyzed in the following items.

[0159] Evaluation indicators may include the amount of emergency rescue material reserves, accident rescue efficiency, accident emergency rescue losses, emergency rescue material input costs, and material reserve redundancy. Among them, the material reserve quantity of coal mining enterprises in the initial reserve plan can be brought into the evaluation model to calculate the size of accident emergency rescue losses caused by specific emergency materials for each coal mining enterprise under the reserve quantity of the initial reserve plan.

[0160] Regarding the quantity of emergency rescue materials reserves, according to the solution results of the evaluation model, the reserve quantity of specific emergency rescue materials of each coal mining enterprise under the scenario of only considering the minimum loss of accident emergency rescue is compared with the reserve quantity of specific emergency rescue materials of each coal mining enterprise in the initial reserve plan, and the gap is compared to evaluate the rationality of the initial reserve plan.

[0161] In view of the accident emergency rescue losses, the shared reserve quantity of each coal mining enterprise in the initial reserve plan is brought into the evaluation model, and the size of the accident emergency rescue losses caused by specific emergency materials of each coal mining enterprise under the reserve quantity of the initial reserve plan is calculated. It is then compared with the accident emergency rescue losses of the reference reserve plan solved by each coal mining enterprise under the condition of only considering the accident emergency rescue losses, so as to evaluate the rationality of the level of specific emergency rescue materials in the initial reserve plan from the perspective of accident emergency rescue losses.

[0162] Regarding the input cost of emergency rescue materials, based on the solution results of the evaluation model, the input cost of the specific emergency rescue materials in the initial reserve plan is calculated, and it is compared with the material input cost of the reference shared reserve level obtained by only considering the accident emergency rescue losses. The advantages of the initial reserve plan are analyzed from the perspective of economic cost, and its rationality and feasibility are further evaluated.

[0163] The redundancy of material reserves refers to a certain percentage of material reserves added to the normal emergency rescue material reserves. The purpose of this redundant reserve is to cope with uncertainties and emergencies, to ensure that there is sufficient supply of materials in emergency rescue operations to meet rescue needs and ensure the smooth progress of rescue operations.

[0164] The redundancy can be calculated using the following formula:

[0165]

[0166] The reference reserve plan that only considers the accident emergency rescue losses obtained by solving the evaluation model is compared with the initial reserve plan. By comparing the reserve quantity of specific emergency rescue materials of each coal mining enterprise, the investment cost of specific emergency rescue materials, the size of the rescue losses during accident rescue, and the redundancy of the reserve quantity of specific emergency rescue materials for each coal mining enterprise, the above factors are comprehensively considered to evaluate the initial reserve plan, evaluate the rationality, economy and feasibility of its shared reserve level, and provide guidance for further improvement of the plan based on the evaluation results and model solution results.

[0167] like Figure 4 As shown, according to some embodiments of the present application, an evaluation device 400 for an emergency rescue material reserve plan is provided, comprising:

[0168] The acquisition module 410 is used to acquire basic parameters of the accident subject and the shared material reserve base and an initial reserve plan as a material reserve plan, wherein the basic parameters include the location distribution information of the accident subject and the shared material reserve base, and the initial reserve plan includes a shared reserve mode, and the respective material reserve information of the accident subject and the shared material reserve base, wherein the material reserve information at least includes the types of the reserved materials, the quantity of each type of the reserved materials, and the shelf life of each of the reserved materials;

[0169] Establishing module 420, for establishing an evaluation model of a material reserve plan based on input information, wherein the goal of the evaluation model includes minimizing accident emergency rescue losses, the input information includes the basic parameters and the initial reserve plan, and the accident emergency rescue losses include at least one of material dispatch losses, near-expiry sales losses, delay penalty losses, and transportation losses;

[0170] A solution module 430, configured to solve the evaluation model based on the target to obtain a reference reserve plan;

[0171] The analysis module 440 is used to compare and analyze the initial reserve plan and the reference reserve plan in at least one of the following aspects: emergency rescue material reserve level, accident rescue efficiency, accident emergency rescue loss, emergency rescue material investment cost and material reserve redundancy.

[0172] The core of the evaluation device of this application is to comprehensively evaluate various storage modes based on the premise that the quantity and arrival time of rescue materials meet the needs of accident rescue, taking into account the probability of accidents, and taking the goal of maximizing benefits. Furthermore, based on the comprehensive evaluation, the best emergency rescue material storage plan with accident risk is selected.

[0173] It is worth mentioning that all modules involved in this embodiment are logic modules. In practical applications, a logic unit can be a physical unit, a part of a physical unit, or a combination of multiple physical units. In addition, in order to highlight the innovative part of this application, this embodiment does not introduce units that are not closely related to solving the technical problems proposed by this application, but this does not mean that there are no other units in this embodiment.

[0174] According to some embodiments of the present application, an electronic device is provided, such as Figure 5 As shown, it includes: at least one processor 501; and a memory 502 that is communicatively connected to the at least one processor 501; wherein the memory 502 stores instructions that can be executed by the at least one processor 501, and the instructions are executed by the at least one processor 501 so that the at least one processor 501 can execute the evaluation method in the above-mentioned embodiments.

[0175] Among them, the memory and the processor are connected in a bus manner, and the bus may include any number of interconnected buses and bridges, and the bus connects various circuits of one or more processors and memories together. The bus can also connect various other circuits such as peripherals, voltage regulators, and power management circuits, which are well known in the art and are therefore not further described herein. The bus interface provides an interface between the bus and the transceiver. The transceiver can be one element or multiple elements, such as multiple receivers and transmitters, providing a unit for communicating with various other devices on a transmission medium. The data processed by the processor is transmitted on a wireless medium via an antenna, and further, the antenna also receives data and transmits the data to the processor.

[0176] The processor is responsible for managing the bus and general processing, and can also provide various functions, including timing, peripheral interfaces, voltage regulation, power management, and other control functions. Memory can be used to store data used by the processor when performing operations.

[0177] In one example, the electronic device may further include: an input device 503 and an output device 504 , and these components are interconnected via a bus system and / or other forms of connection mechanisms (not shown).

[0178] In addition, the input device 503 may include, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, and the like.

[0179] The output device 504 can output various information to the outside, including the determined distance information, direction information, etc. The output device can include, for example, a display, a speaker, a printer, a communication network and a remote output device connected thereto, and the like.

[0180] Of course, to simplify, Figure 5 Only some of the components related to the present disclosure in the electronic device are shown, and components such as a bus, an input / output interface, etc. are omitted. In addition, according to specific application situations, the electronic device may further include any other appropriate components.

[0181] According to some embodiments of the present application, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, which stores a computer program. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the evaluation method in each of the above embodiments is implemented.

[0182] Computer readable storage media can adopt any combination of one or more readable media. The readable medium can be a readable signal medium or a readable storage medium. The readable storage medium can include, for example, but is not limited to, a system, device or device of electricity, magnetism, light, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor, or any combination of the above. More specific examples (non-exhaustive list) of readable storage media include: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the above.

[0183] Those skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the steps in the above-mentioned embodiment method can be completed by instructing the relevant hardware through a program, and the program is stored in a storage medium, including a number of instructions to enable a device (which can be a single-chip microcomputer, chip, etc.) or a processor to execute all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present application. The aforementioned storage medium includes: U disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (Read-Only Memory, referred to as: ROM), random access memory (Random Access Memory, referred to as: RAM), disk or optical disk and other media that can store program codes.

[0184] According to some embodiments of the present application, a computer program product is also provided, which includes computer program instructions. When the computer program instructions are executed by a processor, the processor executes the evaluation method in the above embodiments.

[0185] The following is a specific example to illustrate the implementation steps of the technical solution in the embodiment of the present application. Those skilled in the art should understand that the steps and details in the example are only for a more thorough explanation of the technical solution of the present application, and should not be regarded as limiting the scope of protection of the present application.

[0186] In this example, the common storage plan of specific emergency rescue materials for mine drainage pumps proposed by five coal mining enterprises under a coal group is used as the evaluation and analysis object. Taking the flooding accident as an example, the plan analyzes the reserve level of specific emergency rescue materials for mine drainage pumps and evaluates the shared reserve plan for mine drainage pumps proposed by the plan.

[0187] It is known that the shared reserve plan (initial reserve plan) for specific emergency rescue materials is as follows: the number of mining dewatering pumps stored in the shared base is 19; the number of specific emergency dewatering pumps stored in the five coal mining enterprises is 3, 3, 10, 5, and 6 respectively. The shared reserve plan for specific emergency rescue materials can be found in Figure 6Among them, the location distribution of coal mining enterprises and shared reserve bases is shown in Table 1.

[0188] Table 1 Location distribution of coal mining enterprises and shared material reserve bases

[0189]

[0190] Assuming the time required for specific emergency relief supplies It satisfies the truncated normal distribution, and its mean and variance can be determined according to the upper and lower limits of the demand time, that is:

[0191]

[0192] in:

[0193]

[0194]

[0195] Assuming the quantity of specific emergency relief supplies required It satisfies the truncated normal distribution, and its mean and variance are determined according to the upper and lower limits of the required quantity.

[0196]

[0197] in:

[0198]

[0199]

[0200] In this case analysis, taking the coal mine flooding accident as an example, the basic parameters of the specific emergency material mine drainage pump are set, and the pump flow rate is 80m 3 / h, power 15KW, head 25m, weight 220kg, water pump price 42000 yuan, the rotation cycle of the drainage pump is set to 10 years.

[0201] The construction cost of the shared base is 600,000 yuan, the storage cost of the shared base for specific emergency materials is 100 yuan / piece / year, the unit price of transportation is 0.565 yuan / (km*ton), the construction cost of the coal mine enterprise's own material reserve is 350,000 yuan, the material storage costs of the coal mine enterprise are 120 yuan / piece / year, 150 yuan / piece / year, 106 yuan / piece / year, 130 yuan / piece / year, and 120 yuan / piece / year, respectively, the material storage time is 20 years, the transportation speed during material dispatch is 40km / h, and the total loading and unloading time of the shared base materials is 1.5h. The maximum demand for mine drainage pumps in the event of water seepage accidents in the five coal mine enterprises is 12, 17, 29, 14, and 25 respectively; and according to the relevant standards of the coal mine industry, each coal mine is equipped with at least 3 or more drainage pumps. In the implementation of this case, the number of drainage pumps reserved by the coal mine enterprise itself is set to be no less than 3.

[0202] According to the reserve level (i.e., reserve quantity) of the specific emergency rescue material sharing reserve plan (initial reserve plan) formulated by the original coal mining enterprises and the shared base, the reserve quantity of each coal mining enterprise is brought into the evaluation model of the specific emergency rescue material sharing reserve plan, and the size of the emergency rescue loss of each coal mining enterprise in the specific emergency rescue material sharing reserve plan between the original coal mining enterprises and the shared base is solved; and the reserve level of the specific emergency rescue material reference reserve plan that only considers the lowest emergency rescue loss is calculated, and it is compared with the reserve level of the initial reserve plan to evaluate the specific emergency rescue material reserve plan of the original coal mining enterprises and the shared base.

[0203] See Table 2. The results of the model solution are as follows. In the table, Q represents the material reserve level of the original specific emergency relief material sharing reserve plan (initial reserve plan); Represents the reserve level of the reference reserve plan obtained by solving the evaluation model when only emergency rescue losses are considered; Represents the reserve level of the reference reserve scheme obtained by solving the evaluation model under the multi-coal mine participation sharing mode; Represents the magnitude of the loss of emergency rescue caused by the accident when there is no shared base for material sharing in the original specific emergency rescue material reserve plan; Represents the size of the accident emergency rescue loss in the case of material sharing under the original specific emergency rescue material reserve plan; It represents the size of the accident emergency rescue loss when only the reserve plan is considered in the emergency rescue situation; Represents the magnitude of accident emergency rescue losses under the sharing model of multiple coal mines; Representing coal mining enterprises in the event of accident emergency rescue losses when storing materials at the maximum demand; It represents the total cost of purchasing materials under the original specific emergency relief material sharing reserve plan; The representative only considers the total cost of purchasing specific emergency relief materials under the reserve plan in emergency rescue situations; It represents the total cost of purchasing specific emergency rescue material reserves under the sharing mode of multiple coal mines; R1 represents the redundancy of the material reserve level of the original specific emergency rescue material sharing reserve plan for each coal mine; R2 represents the redundancy of the reserve level for each coal mine under the reserve plan considering only the emergency rescue situation; R3 represents the redundancy of the optimal reserve level for each coal mine under the mode of multiple coal mines sharing.

[0204] Table 2 Solution results of the evaluation model

[0205]

[0206] The reserve level of specific emergency rescue materials reserve plan of coal mining enterprises and shared bases is brought into the evaluation model, and the accident emergency rescue losses under the two situations of shared bases participating in sharing and not participating in sharing when the original specific emergency rescue materials reserve plan is applied to accident rescue are analyzed. The specific emergency rescue materials reserve level is compared with the specific emergency rescue materials reserve level when only considering the accident emergency rescue losses. The difference in accident emergency rescue losses, specific emergency rescue materials investment level, and material reserve redundancy is compared, and the feasibility of the specific emergency rescue materials shared reserve plan is comprehensively evaluated from multiple aspects.

[0207] From the solution results, it can be seen that by comparative analysis Figure 7a It can be seen that under the sharing model that only considers the lowest emergency rescue loss, the quantity of specific emergency rescue materials reserved by coal mining enterprises themselves is relatively high. This is mainly because the level of specific emergency rescue materials reserved by coal mining enterprises themselves is relatively high, which can effectively avoid emergency rescue losses caused by insufficient material reserves; the material reserve level obtained for the purpose of reducing the total reserve of specific emergency rescue materials is not much different from the material reserve level of the original material reserve plan, and when considering reducing the total storage level, the amount of materials reserved by each coal mining enterprise itself has increased, and the amount of material reserves in the shared reserve base has decreased.

[0208] From the analysis of the accident emergency rescue losses during the accident rescue process, by comparative analysis Figure 7bIt can be seen that by comparing and analyzing the accident emergency rescue losses in the original shared reserve plan under the following situations: material sharing in a shared base, material sharing without a shared base, material reserves only considering the accident emergency rescue losses, and material reserves for multiple coal mines, it can be seen that under the original specific emergency rescue material reserve plan, the shared material reserve base participates in material supply, compared with the situation without a shared base, and the size of the emergency rescue losses of accident rescue is greatly reduced. It can be seen that the shared reserve model plays a great role in accident rescue; compared with the material reserve level of the original specific emergency rescue material reserve plan that only considers the accident emergency rescue losses, the original material reserve plan has a higher accident emergency rescue loss, which is mainly due to The higher the coal mine enterprise's own material reserve level, the less shortage will be when an accident occurs, and the resulting emergency rescue will be lower; under the sharing mode, the original emergency rescue material sharing reserve plan is compared with the material reserve plan under the multi-coal mine sharing mode. The material rescue losses in these two situations are not much different, and the material rescue losses shared by coal mine enterprises 3 and coal mine enterprise 5 are relatively high. The other three coal mines have higher accident emergency rescue losses under the original material reserve plan. It can be seen that the original specific emergency rescue material reserve plan can be further optimized in terms of material reserves, and at the same time, a sharing model of multi-coal mine sharing can be introduced, which can not only reduce the total material reserve level, but also further reduce the accident emergency rescue losses.

[0209] By comparative analysis Figure 7c It can be seen that through comparative analysis of the accident emergency rescue losses under the original shared reserve plan of material sharing in shared bases, material sharing without shared bases, and reserve emergency materials with the maximum material demand, it can be seen that after the establishment of the shared base, the material reserve volume has been greatly reduced, and at the same time, the accident emergency rescue losses have also been greatly reduced. It can be seen that the introduction of the model of shared reserve emergency rescue materials is of great benefit to accident rescue.

[0210] By comparative analysis Figure 7dIt can be seen that from the perspective of the redundancy of material reserves, the total reserve of mine drainage pumps in the original specific emergency rescue material sharing reserve plan is 46 units, of which the material reserve redundancy for coal mine enterprise 1 is 283%, the material reserve redundancy for coal mine enterprise 2 is 171%, the material reserve redundancy for coal mine enterprise 3 is 59%, the material reserve redundancy for coal mine enterprise 4 is 229%, and the material reserve redundancy for coal mine enterprise 5 is 84%. When considering the material reserve level of only specific emergency rescue losses, the total material reserve for mine drainage pumps is 54 units, and the material reserve redundancy for coal mine enterprise 1 is 350%, the material reserve redundancy for coal mine enterprise 2 is 218%, the material reserve redundancy for coal mine enterprise 3 is 86%, the material reserve redundancy for coal mine enterprise 4 is 286%, and the material reserve redundancy for coal mine enterprise 5 is 116%. When considering the sharing of multiple coal mines, the total material reserve is 29, the material reserve redundancy for coal mine enterprise 1 is 142%, and the material reserve redundancy for coal mine enterprise 2 is 286%. 71%, the redundancy of material reserves for coal mine enterprise 3 is 0%, the redundancy of material reserves for coal mine enterprise 4 is 107%, and the redundancy of material reserves for coal mine enterprise 5 is 16%. It can be seen that the original specific emergency rescue material reserve plan and the reserve plan obtained by only considering the accident emergency rescue losses have certain deficiencies in the material reserve level. The excessive redundancy of material reserves will cause waste of material resources to a certain extent. After considering the sharing of multiple coal mines, the total material reserve level is controlled within a certain range, the total material reserve level of coal mine enterprises decreases, and the redundancy of material reserves is optimized. Considering the redundancy of material reserve levels, the original plan needs to be further analyzed and improved on the reserve level of specific emergency rescue materials, optimize the sharing mode, enable multiple coal mines to participate in material sharing, and reduce the total material reserve level, so as to achieve the effect of reducing the redundancy of material reserve levels and avoid waste of resources caused by excess reserve materials.

[0211] According to the solution analysis results, it can be seen that after the introduction of the shared reserve mode of emergency rescue materials, the total amount of material reserves has been greatly reduced, and the loss of accident emergency rescue has also been greatly reduced; under the original specific emergency rescue material reserve plan, the shared material reserve base participates in the material supply, compared with the situation without a shared base, the emergency rescue loss of accident rescue has been greatly reduced. It can be seen that the shared reserve model plays a great role in accident rescue; and the specific rescue material reserve plan of the original coal mine enterprise and the shared base jointly reserves emergency rescue materials from the aspects of material reserve level and accident emergency rescue loss, has certain feasibility, but the redundancy in the number of material reserves is high, and the material reserve level needs further optimization. According to the above model solution results, the original material shared reserve plan can further optimize the material sharing model, so that multiple coal mine enterprises can participate in material sharing together. Under this sharing model, the total reserve level of specific emergency rescue materials can be effectively reduced, thereby reducing the redundancy in the number of material reserves.

[0212] The specific rescue material reserve plan for the joint reserve of emergency rescue materials by the original coal mining enterprises and shared bases still needs further in-depth analysis and optimization in terms of the emergency material reserve level, and improve the original shared reserve model, from the "shared base for multiple demand coal mining enterprises" to the "multiple coal mining enterprises and shared bases for one demand enterprise" model transformation, which can not only reduce the total material reserve level and reduce the redundancy of material reserves, but also to a certain extent avoid the excessive level of material input, resulting in emergency rescue losses due to insufficient material reserves; in the implementation of this model, it is also necessary to further improve and adjust the material reserve level of each coal mining enterprise to avoid waste of resources caused by excess resources of specific emergency rescue materials.

[0213] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the above embodiments are specific embodiments for implementing the present application, and in actual applications, various changes may be made thereto in form and detail without departing from the spirit and scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A risk-based evaluation method for emergency rescue material reserve plans, characterized in that: include: For specific emergency rescue materials corresponding to specific accident risks, basic parameters of the accident subject and the material sharing reserve base and an initial reserve plan as a material reserve plan are obtained, the basic parameters include the location distribution information of the accident subject and the material sharing reserve base, the initial reserve plan includes a shared reserve mode, the material reserve information of each of the accident subject and the material sharing reserve base, the material reserve information includes at least the types of reserved materials, the quantity of each type of materials reserved and the shelf life of each reserved material, the shared reserve mode includes: a sharing mode with a material sharing reserve base, a sharing mode of a material sharing reserve base and multiple accident subjects, a sharing mode without a material sharing reserve base and a sharing mode with a maximum reserve quantity of the accident subject; wherein, the sharing mode with a material sharing reserve base refers to a mode in which a material sharing reserve base provides shared reserve materials to corresponding multiple accident subjects, the material sharing reserve base and multiple accident subjects share the same reserve base. The sharing mode refers to a mode in which a material sharing reserve base and multiple accident entities provide shared reserve materials to one accident entity. In the sharing mode with a material sharing reserve base and the sharing mode of the material sharing reserve base and multiple accident entities, the accident entity and the material sharing reserve base constitute a system, and the total material reserve can meet the needs of accident rescue; the sharing mode without a material sharing reserve base refers to a mode in which the material sharing reserve base does not share reserve materials with the accident entity. In the sharing mode without a material sharing reserve base, the emergency rescue materials reserved by the accident entity itself are consumed first, and if there is a shortage of materials, the materials are dispatched; the sharing mode with the maximum reserve quantity of the accident entity refers to a mode in which there is no material sharing reserve base to share reserve materials with the accident entity, and the accident entity reserves emergency rescue materials according to the maximum material demand. In the sharing mode with the maximum reserve quantity of the accident entity, the emergency rescue materials reserved by the accident entity itself can meet its own accident rescue needs; An evaluation model for a material reserve plan is established based on input information, wherein the goal of the evaluation model includes minimizing accident emergency rescue losses, the input information includes the basic parameters and the initial reserve plan, the accident emergency rescue losses include at least one of material dispatch losses, near-expiry sales losses, delay penalty losses, and transportation losses, wherein the accident emergency rescue loss item included in the evaluation model and / or the goal of the evaluation model is determined according to the shared reserve mode in the initial reserve plan; Solving the evaluation model based on the target to obtain a reference reserve plan; Comparative analysis of the initial reserve plan and the reference reserve plan on at least one of the following: emergency rescue material reserve level, accident rescue efficiency, accident emergency rescue losses, emergency rescue material input costs, and material reserve redundancy; The evaluation model includes a first evaluation model, the solution of the first evaluation model obtains a first reference reserve plan, the shared reserve mode of the first reference reserve plan is that the material shared reserve base does not share the reserve materials with the accident subject, the first evaluation model is an inventory decision model that adopts a material scheduling strategy and a near-expiry sales strategy, and the objectives of the first evaluation model include minimizing material scheduling losses, near-expiry sales losses, delay penalty losses, and transportation losses; The evaluation model includes a second evaluation model, the second evaluation model is solved to obtain a second reference reserve plan, the shared reserve mode of the second reference reserve plan is that the material shared reserve base can share the reserve materials with the accident subject, and the goal of the second evaluation model includes minimizing the loss of near-expiry sales; The evaluation model includes a third evaluation model, the third evaluation model is solved to obtain a third reference reserve plan, the shared reserve mode of the third reference reserve plan is that the material sharing reserve base can share reserve materials with multiple accident subjects, and the multiple accident subjects can share reserve materials with each other, and the goal of the third evaluation model includes minimizing the loss of near-expiry sales; The evaluation model includes a fourth evaluation model, and the fourth evaluation model is solved to obtain a fourth reference reserve plan. The sharing mode of the fourth reference reserve plan is that the material sharing reserve base does not share reserve materials with the accident subject, and the material reserve quantity of the accident subject is the maximum reserve quantity. The goal of the fourth evaluation model includes minimizing near-expiry sales losses.

2. The evaluation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The initial reserve plan for obtaining the accident subject and the shared reserve base for materials includes: Taking the reduction of the total material reserve quantity of multiple accident entities and material sharing reserve bases as a constraint condition and minimizing the total input cost of multiple accident entities and material sharing reserve bases as a goal, the material reserve plan decision model is adjusted, wherein the material sharing reserve base can share the reserve materials with the multiple accident entities; The initial reserve plan for multiple accident entities and material shared reserve bases determined by the adjusted material reserve plan decision model is obtained.

3. The evaluation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The function of accident emergency rescue loss includes the following parameters: The amount of materials stored in the accident entity and the shared material storage base ; Accident time probability distribution function , where t is the time when the accident occurred; The demand quantity distribution function for emergency rescue materials during accident rescue ,in, The quantity of emergency rescue materials required during the accident rescue process; The upper bound of the random demand time for emergency relief supplies and lower bound b; The upper bound c and lower bound d of the random demand quantity of emergency relief supplies; Unit material expiration loss rate ; Unit material rescue value rate ; The shelf life of the material is T; Unit material price S; Latest sales time ; The latest sales time ratio of materials ; Unit material market value rate ; The value of shared dispatched materials p; Unit Material Delay Penalty ; Average travel speed vtr of material dispatch; Emergency dispatch time tr, Among them, the material dispatch loss mentioned in the accident emergency rescue loss The function is: ； Loss of sales near expiration The function is: ； Delay Penalty Loss The function is: ,in, is the quantity of materials to be sold before the expiration date, and the function of the penalty cl for delayed materials per unit is: , where an emergency occurs at time 0, The emergency response phase corresponding to the moment generates demand for emergency rescue supplies. The emergency rescue supplies lose their function and the loss limit is generated when there is a shortage of supplies , is the material importance coefficient; Transportation loss The function is: = ， in, The loss of unit material transportation, , To schedule the transport distance, For road freight, is the unit material weight, The quantity of materials that are about to be sold.

4. The evaluation method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The evaluation method further comprises: Obtaining the probability distribution function of the time when an accident occurs and the distribution function of the demand quantity of emergency rescue materials during the accident rescue process, specifically including: obtaining historical accident-related data, the historical accident-related data including historical accident types, historical accident occurrence times, and historical accident rescue demand quantity-related data; determining the probability distribution function of the time when an accident occurs based on historical accident types and historical accident occurrence times; and determining the demand quantity distribution function of emergency rescue materials during the accident rescue process based on historical accident types and historical accident occurrence times.

5. The evaluation method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that: The evaluation method further comprises: Based on the result of the comparative analysis of the initial reserve plan and the reference reserve plan, determining whether the initial reserve plan needs to be adjusted; In case such adjustment is necessary, the reserve level of emergency relief materials of the initial reserve plan is optimized.

6. The evaluation method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that: The basic parameters also include accident risk characteristic information for characterizing accident risk characteristics, so as to determine the corresponding emergency rescue material reserve level based on the accident risk characteristic information, wherein the accident risk characteristic information is extracted from historical accident data.

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