Information processing device, information processing method, and program

Abstract

Acquisition of information relating to future water revenue and expenditure in a target area is requested. An information processing device (1), which is provided with: a monitoring information acquisition unit (143) that acquires monitoring information relating to environmental elements relating to the circulation state of water resources in a target region; a determination unit (145) that acquires monitoring information relating to environmental elements relating to the circulation state of water resources in the target region; an element value acquisition unit (147) that acquires information relating to the circulation state of water resources in the target region; and a determination unit (145) that determines whether or not a predetermined condition relating to a change in the monitoring information acquired by the monitoring information acquisition unit (143) has been satisfied, and that, when it is determined that the predetermined condition has been satisfied, acquires an imminent element value of a future predicted value of an environmental element relating to the change in the monitoring information. And a calculation unit (151) that acquires a water revenue / expenditure calculation value relating to the revenue / expenditure of the water resource in the target area on the basis of the future element value, and an output unit (160) that outputs information relating to the future circulation state of the water resource in the target area on the basis of the water revenue / expenditure calculation value.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to an information processing device, an information processing method, and a program that can be used when managing water resources in a space having an extended space of a certain range. Background Art

[0002] In recent years, when operating facilities such as factories, it is required to be aware of the amount of water resources in spatial units such as each facility unit or a basin unit containing the facility, which has a certain range of expansion space. For example, the amount of water resources in the target area is monitored, and the monitoring results are analyzed, and on this basis, the analysis results are effectively used in production activities, water resource operation management, or water resource protection activities. For such activities, it is hoped that future predictions that also take time scales into consideration can be made, thereby formulating effective future plans and implementing appropriate operation management.

[0003] That is, in the past, when production activities were carried out in factories, etc., a large amount of water resources were used for purposes such as boilers, raw materials, product processing, machine cleaning, machine cooling, temperature adjustment, and machine cleaning water, regardless of the type of products produced. Facilities that use water resources include facilities that own wells and draw water, and facilities that use tap water or industrial water purchased from the state or local governments. In any water-drawing method, water resources in the basin surrounding the facility or water resources near the facility are used.

[0004] Whether a facility can continue to operate depends on the sustainability of water resources in the basin surrounding the facility. In order to improve the sustainability of water resources, it is not only important to improve the efficiency of water resource utilization in the facility, but also to formulate a facility operation plan to reduce the impact on water resources in the basin surrounding the facility. Specifically, for example, when formulating a facility operation plan, it is necessary to pay attention to various water-related indicators such as river water levels, groundwater levels, and spring water volume. In addition, if it is estimated that the sustainability of water resources in the basin surrounding the facility is low, in order to protect water resources, it is necessary to formulate implementation plans such as paddy field conservation activities and forest protection activities.

[0005] However, it is not easy to accurately understand the behavior of water in the geosphere environment with a certain extension and range. Water repeatedly undergoes various behaviors such as evaporation, transpiration, rainfall, snowfall, river flow, infiltration, groundwater flow, and outflow between various systems such as the atmosphere, the surface, and even the underground. It is either conserved and stored as groundwater or flows out of the area.

[0006] Therefore, in order to ensure the sustainability of water resources in the facility unit and the river basin unit including the facility, the circulation state of water resources in the river basin needs to be regulated. In addition, the flow, storage and change of water resources in the facility unit and the river basin unit including the facility (hereinafter referred to as the water balance of the target area) need to be properly managed. It can also be said that the water balance of the target area is an indicator that represents the circulation state of water resources in the target area.

[0007] However, it is not realistic to grasp all environmental factors related to water balance in all locations within a river basin. In particular, when managing quantities that are difficult to directly observe, such as water conservation and groundwater flow in locations with poor connectivity such as hilly areas, it is difficult to obtain these observed values, making it difficult to manage appropriately.

[0008] With such a problem as the background, water cycle models have been used in some cases for water resource management in the past. Among such water cycle models, there are so-called centralized models and distributed water cycle models (for example, refer to Non-Patent Document 1).

[0009] The characteristics of the centralized model are that the amount of data required for calculation is small, the calculation can be performed relatively simply, and it is relatively easy to systematize. However, in the centralized model, it is sometimes difficult to improve the accuracy of reproducing or predicting the water cycle.

[0010] On the other hand, in the distributed water cycle model, the space as the object is divided into fine grids (mesh), and the water cycle in each grid can be reproduced according to the physical law of the water cycle. Therefore, it is possible to reproduce the phenomenon close to the actual water cycle with high accuracy. That is, the distributed water cycle model is suitable when the purpose is to manage the production capacity in the facility, etc. (refer to non-patent document 2 and non-patent document 3). As such a distributed water cycle model, there is a model described in patent document 1 or non-patent document 4, for example.

[0011] Patent Literature Patent Document 1: Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2011-13753

[0012] Non-patent literature Non-Patent Literature 1: Nissu Consulting Co., Ltd., “Distributed Flood Prediction Model Nissu Consulting Co., Ltd. - Towards a Wet Future”, online, (searched on June 12, 2020), Internet <URL: http: / / www.nissuicon.co.jp / jigyou / kasen / kouzui-yosoku / > Non-patent document 2: Hiroyuki Tosaka, Keiji Kojima, Akio Miki, Tsuyoshi Chino, Development of a 3D land water simulation method combining surface flow and groundwater flow, Journal of the Groundwater Society, 1996, Vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 253-267 Non-patent document 3: Yasuji Mori, Kazuhiro Tada, So Sato, Nobuko Kakizawa, Yoshimi Uchiyama, Naohide Yokoyama, Masanobu Yamane, 3D water cycle model for water source areas in Kanagawa Prefecture, Kanagawa Environmental Protection Journal 10 (2013) 215-223. Non-patent document 4: McDonald, Michael G. and Arlen W. Harbaugh. "A modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model." Techniques of water-resources investigations (1984) Summary of the invention

[0013] As described above, in the facility unit and the basin unit including the facility, in order to carry out production activities using the facility in a sustainable manner, appropriate decisions need to be made regarding the use of water resources. In order to make such decisions appropriately, it is necessary to obtain information on the future water balance of the target area and appropriately grasp the risks that may occur in the future.

[0014] An object of the present invention is to provide an information processing device, an information processing method, and a program capable of acquiring information on the future water balance circulation state of a target area.

[0015] The information processing device of the first invention comprises: a monitoring information acquisition unit, which acquires monitoring information related to environmental factors regarding the circulation state of water resources in the target area; a judgment unit, which judges whether a prescribed condition related to a change in the monitoring information acquired by the monitoring information acquisition unit is satisfied; an element value acquisition unit, which acquires a future predicted value, i.e., a future element value, of an environmental factor related to the change in the monitoring information when it is judged that the prescribed condition is satisfied; a calculation unit, which acquires a water balance calculation value related to the balance of water resources in the target area based on the future element value; and an output unit, which outputs information related to the future circulation state of water resources in the target area based on the water balance calculation value.

[0016] With such a configuration, it is possible to obtain information on the future water balance cycle state of the target area.

[0017] In addition, the information processing device of the second invention is as follows: with respect to the first invention, the monitoring information is related to two or more environmental factors, and when it is determined that the prescribed conditions have been met, the element value acquisition unit determines the environmental factors related to the changes in the monitoring information among the two or more environmental factors, and obtains the future element values ​​for the determined environmental factors.

[0018] With such a configuration, the future element value of the environmental element that causes the change is acquired, and information on the future circulation state of the target area can be easily acquired.

[0019] In addition, the information processing device of the third invention is as follows. With respect to the first or second invention, the calculation unit obtains a water balance calculation value using a distributed water circulation model that models the circulation state of water resources in the target area, and the distributed water circulation model is composed of a plurality of grids formed by applying values ​​respectively related to two or more environmental factors and dividing the target area in a grid shape.

[0020] With such a configuration, it is possible to obtain highly accurate information on the future water balance cycle state in the target area.

[0021] In addition, the information processing device of the fourth invention is as follows. With respect to any one of the first to third inventions, the element value acquisition unit also acquires information indicating the uncertainty of future element values, the calculation unit also acquires information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value based on the future element value and the information indicating its uncertainty, and the output unit outputs the water balance calculation value based on the information indicating its uncertainty.

[0022] With such a configuration, it is possible to acquire information on the future water balance circulation state of the target area based on information indicating the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value.

[0023] In addition, the information processing device of the fifth invention is as follows. With respect to the fourth invention, the element value acquisition unit obtains future element values ​​and information representing their uncertainties for two or more environmental elements respectively, and the calculation unit obtains primary information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value for each environmental element based on the information representing the uncertainty of the future element values ​​of each environmental element, and at the same time, the primary information obtained for the two or more environmental elements are synthesized (averaged) to obtain information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value.

[0024] With such a configuration, it is possible to acquire information on the future water balance circulation state of the target area based on information indicating the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value.

[0025] In addition, the information processing device of the sixth invention is as follows. With respect to any one of the first to fifth inventions, the calculation unit is configured to obtain a water balance calculation value based on values ​​related to two or more environmental factors, and is provided with an extraction unit, which enables the calculation unit to obtain the water balance calculation value by changing the value of each environmental factor, thereby performing a sensitivity analysis related to the influence of each environmental factor on the water balance calculation value in the target area, extracting environmental factors that have a greater influence on the water balance calculation value the more they meet a predetermined condition, and the monitoring information acquisition unit is configured to obtain monitoring information related to the environmental factors extracted by the extraction unit.

[0026] With such a configuration, future element values ​​are acquired with respect to environmental elements that may cause large fluctuations, and information on the future circulation state of the target area can be easily acquired.

[0027] In addition, the information processing method of the seventh invention is as follows, comprising: an acquisition step, acquiring monitoring information related to environmental factors regarding the circulation state of water resources in the target area; a judgment step, judging whether the prescribed conditions related to the changes in the monitoring information are met; an element value acquisition step, when it is judged that the prescribed conditions are met, acquiring the future predicted value of the environmental factor related to the change in the monitoring information, that is, the future element value; and a calculation step, obtaining a water balance calculation value related to the balance of water resources in the target area based on the future element value, which is adopted for the purpose of evaluating the risks related to the water resources in the target area or conducting research related to the implementation of superficial prevention measures for risks.

[0028] Such a method can evaluate the risk associated with water resources in the target area or conduct research on measures to prevent the risk from becoming apparent, using information on the future water balance cycle state of the target area.

[0029] In addition, the information processing method of the eighth invention is as follows. Regarding the seventh invention, in the element value acquisition step, information representing the uncertainty of the future element value is also acquired, and in the calculation step, information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value is also acquired based on the future element value and the information representing its uncertainty, and it also includes a comparison step of comparing the water balance calculation value with a specified threshold value based on the information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value.

[0030] Such a method makes it possible to evaluate the risk or conduct research on measures to prevent the risk based on information on the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value.

[0031] According to the information processing device and the like according to the present invention, it is possible to acquire information on the future circulation state of water balance in a target area. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0032] Figure 1 This is a diagram for explaining an example of a distributed water circulation model in one embodiment of the present invention. Figure 2 This is a flowchart for explaining the use of the distributed water cycle model. Figure 3 This is a block diagram of the information processing device in Embodiment 1 of the present invention. Figure 4 This is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the information processing device. Figure 5 This is a flowchart showing an example of a process of extracting a high-impact parameter by the information processing device. Figure 6 This is a flowchart showing an example of quantitative evaluation performed by the information processing device. Figure 7 It is a diagram showing the relationship between elements related to the water cycle in the target area involved in the application example of the present embodiment. Figure 8 This is a diagram showing an example of monitoring information related to this application example. Fig. 9 This is a diagram for explaining the determination of environmental elements involved in this application example. Fig.10 This is a diagram showing an example of temperature prediction data related to this application example. Fig.11 This is a diagram showing an example of information showing the circulation state of water resources in the future according to this application example. Fig.12 It is an external view of the computer system in the above-mentioned embodiment. Fig.13 is a block diagram of the computer system. Explanation of symbols 1-information processing device; 110-storage unit; 111-model information storage unit; 113-monitoring information storage unit; 115-extraction information storage unit; 130-receiving unit; 140-processing unit; 141-extraction unit; 143-monitoring information acquisition unit; 145-judgment unit; 147-element value acquisition unit; 151-calculation unit; 155-composition unit; 160-output unit; 1411-parameter setting unit; 1412-post-change calculation unit. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0033] Hereinafter, embodiments of the information processing device and the like will be described with reference to the drawings. In the embodiments, components denoted by the same reference numerals perform the same operations, and therefore, duplicate descriptions may be omitted.

[0034] Furthermore, the terms used below are generally defined as follows. Furthermore, the semantics of these terms should not always be interpreted as the meanings shown here, but should be interpreted with reference to the description thereof when they are described separately below, for example.

[0035] Water resources include, for example, groundwater, river water, stored water in lakes and the like, and spring water, but are not limited thereto.

[0036] An identifier for a certain item is a word or symbol that specifically represents the item. Symbols are, for example, English numbers or other signs, but are not limited to them. Although an identifier is, for example, a string of symbols that does not represent a specific meaning, its type is not limited as long as it is information that can identify the corresponding item. That is, an identifier can be the name of the item it represents, or it can be a combination of symbols in a specifically corresponding manner. A combination of two or more pieces of information (for example, attribute values ​​of records recorded in a database, etc.) can also be used as an identifier.

[0037] Acquisition may include acquisition of items input by a user or the like, and may also include acquisition of information stored in one's own device or other devices (which may be information that has been stored in advance or information generated by information processing in the device). Acquisition of information stored in other devices may include acquisition of information stored in other devices via an API or the like, and may also include acquisition of the contents of documents (including the contents of web pages, etc.) provided by other devices.

[0038] In addition, the acquisition of information can also utilize the so-called machine learning method. The utilization of the machine learning method can be done as follows, for example. That is, the machine learning method is used to construct a learning machine (learning information) that uses a specific type of input information as input and outputs the obtained type of output information as output. For example, more than two groups of input information and output information are prepared in advance, and the two or more groups of information are provided to the module used to constitute the learning machine for machine learning to constitute the learning machine, and the constructed learning machine is accumulated in the storage unit. In addition, the learning machine can also be referred to as a classifier. In addition, as a method of machine learning, there are, for example, deep learning, random forest, SVM, etc., and the types are not limited. In addition, in machine learning, for example, functions in various machine learning frameworks such as fastText, tinySVM, random forest, TensorFlow, and various existing program libraries can be used.

[0039] Furthermore, the learning machine is not limited to being obtained through machine learning. The learning machine may also be, for example, a table representing the correspondence between an input vector based on input information and output information. In this case, the output information corresponding to the feature vector based on the input information may be obtained from the table, or two or more input vectors in the table and parameters for weighting each input vector may be used to generate a vector that is similar to the feature vector based on the input information, and the final output information may be obtained using the output information and parameters corresponding to each input vector used in the generation. In addition, the learning machine may also be, for example, a function representing the relationship between an input vector based on input information and information used to generate output information. In this case, for example, the information corresponding to the feature vector based on the input information may be obtained through a function, and the output information may be obtained using the obtained information.

[0040] The output of information is a concept that includes display on a display, projection using a projector, typing using a printer, audio output, transmission to an external device, accumulation on a storage medium, transmission of processing results to other processing devices or other programs, etc. Specifically, it includes, for example, display of information on a web page, transmission as an e-mail, etc., or output of information for printing.

[0041] The acceptance of information is a concept that includes the acceptance of information input from input devices such as a keyboard, mouse, or touch screen, the reception of information sent from other devices via wired or wireless communication lines, or the acceptance of information read from storage media such as optical disks, magnetic disks, and semiconductor memories.

[0042] Regarding various information stored in an information processing device, etc., updating is a concept that includes not only changing the stored information but also adding new information to the stored information or deleting part or all of the stored information.

[0043] Implementation

[0044] In the present embodiment, the information processing device is configured to output information related to the circulation state of water resources in nature through a water cycle model, for example. The circulation state of water resources can also be referred to as a water cycle. In nature, water circulates in the form of precipitation from the air, conservation in the ground, outflow of groundwater to rivers and oceans, evaporation from the surface and oceans, and precipitation from the air. The water cycle model is to model the circulation state of such water resources in an object area including forests, rivers and other types of land. For example, the object area can be set in a factory unit or a basin unit including a factory. That is, the object area can be set in a spatial unit with an expansion space of a certain range. The water cycle model is, for example, a distributed water cycle model that divides the object area into unit areas.

[0045] Furthermore, the unit area may be an area called a grid constituting a model or an area divided by other methods. The unit area may also be an area divided in advance. For example, an area of ​​a specified width determined by longitude and latitude may be set as a unit area.

[0046] Figure 1 This is a diagram for explaining an example of a distributed water circulation model in one embodiment of the present invention.

[0047] like Figure 1 As shown, in the following embodiments, a parameter group including more than two parameters is used to construct a water cycle model. A distributed water cycle model is constructed using a plurality of grids and a parameter group, wherein the plurality of grids are constructed by dividing a unit area into a grid shape and correspond to position information for determining each position, and the parameter group includes parameters related to more than two water cycles applied to each grid (hereinafter, sometimes simply referred to as parameters). For each grid of the distributed water cycle model, by setting the value of the parameter, the circulation state of the water resources in the model can be simulated. Furthermore, the position information of each grid can be information indicating the relative positional relationship with an adjacent grid, or information indicating the position in a prescribed coordinate system, etc., indicating an absolute position. The information related to each grid can be constructed by corresponding the position information and the values ​​of each parameter to a grid identifier for identifying the grid, but is not limited thereto. Furthermore, the parameters of each unit area contained in a basin can also be set to the same values ​​as each other.

[0048] As a distributed water cycle model, for example, a known model such as "GETFLOWS (registered trademark)" or "MODFLOW" can be used, and "GETFLOWS (registered trademark)" is more preferred in the following embodiments. In addition, the water cycle model is not limited to a distributed model, and may be, for example, a centralized model.

[0049] Here, the parameters related to the water cycle include parameters that do not correspond to the water balance items in addition to the parameters that correspond to the water balance items. It can also be said that the parameters related to the water cycle are environmental factors related to the circulation state of water resources.

[0050] Water budget items refer to parameters that represent the amount of elements related to the water cycle. For example, precipitation, river flow, evaporation, pumping, storage, and their changes are consistent with water budget items. That is, in a certain area, it can be said that precipitation is roughly equal to the sum of changes in river flow, evaporation, pumping, and storage. It can be said that parameters related to the amount of water budget are water budget items. In addition, water budget items are not limited to these, and according to the purpose of understanding water budget, etc., the amount of water resources can also be appropriately defined.

[0051] On the other hand, it can be said that the parameters that do not correspond to the water budget items are parameters that express water potential rather than parameters that express water quantity. For example, the water permeability coefficient or groundwater level are parameters that do not correspond to the water budget items. It can also be said that the parameters that do not correspond to the water budget items are parameters that express the nature or state of the water cycle.

[0052] Furthermore, the parameters are not limited to these, but various selections can be made according to the type of water cycle model. For example, the parameters can be set to be related to the elements such as weather, surface, shallow layer and deep layer (for example, precipitation, temperature, topsoil, sediment, permeable layer, etc.) or related to human activities (for example, pumping or water intake, drainage, etc.) or other contents related to the properties specific to the location, etc. More specifically, for example, the parameters such as precipitation, river flow, evaporation, pumping, storage change, temperature, wind speed, sunshine time, relative humidity, canopy coverage, canopy storage, litter coverage, litter storage, snow accumulation and snowmelt temperature, albedo, overall transport coefficient, soil evaporation efficiency, groundwater flow, equivalent roughness coefficient, water permeability, effective porosity, solid phase compressibility, relative permeability, capillary pressure, fluid properties, fluid density, air density, fluid viscosity coefficient, air viscosity coefficient, etc. can be set.

[0053] Figure 2 This is a flowchart for explaining the use of the distributed water cycle model.

[0054] By using the distributed water cycle model as described above, users such as business operators can grasp information related to water balance in the target area. For example, the distributed water cycle model can be used in the following process. The following content is an example, and various modifications can exist depending on the structure or use of the distributed water cycle model.

[0055] (Step S1) That is, first, the target area for which information on water balance is to be obtained is determined. Specifically, for example, when obtaining water balance around a factory that uses water resources, the target area may include a conservation area such as a forest upstream of the factory, an area where the factory draws groundwater or river water downstream, and an area further downstream.

[0056] (Step S2) Information on topography, geology, vegetation, etc. is collected for the target area. Various methods can be used to collect information, such as conducting field surveys, and investigating documents or databases that record information.

[0057] (Step S3) Using the collected information, the target area is modeled as a distributed water cycle model.

[0058] (Step S4) Meteorological and external force data are input to the created distributed water cycle model to calculate the water balance.

[0059] (Step S5) Using the monitoring information, the reproducibility of the model is confirmed. In addition, the information collection and model adjustment are repeated to improve the reproducibility. In addition, such operations can be performed as needed.

[0060] (Step S6) When the available distributed water cycle model is completed, the water balance of the target area is calculated. The calculation can be performed using a computer using a known method according to the configuration of the distributed water cycle model to be adopted.

[0061] (Step S7) The parameter values ​​for a predetermined period are input into the distributed water cycle model, and the water balance for the period is calculated by integration.

[0062] (Step S8) Thus, using the information on the calculated water balance (calculated water balance value), it is possible to plan production activities and the like for a predetermined period in the target area.

[0063] Furthermore, as described later, the water balance calculation value may be calculated by a processing unit of an information processing device or the like, but the present invention is not limited thereto.

[0064] The above-described method of utilizing the distributed water cycle model is merely an example, and various modifications are possible depending on the configuration or application of the distributed water cycle model.

[0065] Furthermore, in this embodiment, the water balance calculation value is related to the flow amount, storage amount, or change amount of water resources in the target area. More specifically, the water balance calculation value may be related to the flow amount, storage amount, or change amount of groundwater in the target area. That is, water balance is a concept that refers to the flow amount, storage amount, and change amount of water resources in the target area, for example. The water balance calculation value may be calculated in each grid, for example, but may also be calculated in each specific location or in each partial area based on the calculation results in each grid.

[0066] For example, for the purpose of managing groundwater resources, as the flow of water resources, sometimes attention is paid to the parameter of water source protection, namely the conservation amount. The flow of water resources may include the conservation amount, for example. In other words, in the present embodiment, it can be said that the water balance calculation value is related to the conservation amount of groundwater in the target area. Here, conservation mainly refers to the supply of water from the surface to the groundwater surface, and the conservation amount refers to the supply of the water. In this way, when the conservation amount of groundwater in the target area is concerned, in connection with this, the amount of water conserved as groundwater, the amount of water flowing into a specific area as groundwater, or the groundwater level can be calculated and grasped as the water balance calculation value. In addition, the water balance calculation value is not limited to this, and the amount related to water resources can be appropriately defined according to the purpose of grasping the water balance, etc.

[0067] For example, in order to manage surface water resources such as river water, attention may be paid to the flow rate during low water periods. In such cases, the amount of water flowing out to the surface as spring water, the amount of water flowing out to rivers as river water, the amount of rain inside the forest relative to rain outside the forest, the outflow rate of water relative to rain outside the forest, or the outflow rate of water relative to rain inside the forest can be calculated and understood as water balance calculation values.

[0068] In addition, for example, for the purpose of managing soil water resources, attention may be paid to the amount of soil water used for agriculture, etc. In such a case, the amount of water that infiltrates as soil water, etc. may be calculated and grasped as a water balance calculation value.

[0069] In the present embodiment, the information processing device uses monitoring information related to environmental factors acting on the water cycle, and when the prescribed conditions related to the change of the monitoring information are met, the water balance calculation value in the target area is obtained based on the future factor value related to the environmental factor corresponding to the monitoring information. At this time, when the prescribed conditions related to the change of the monitoring information are met, the environmental factor related to the change of the monitoring information can also be determined. In obtaining the water balance calculation value, a process-based model that reproduces the circulation state of water resources in the target area, that is, a water cycle model, can be used. It is preferred to obtain information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value together with the water balance calculation value. It is preferred to take the environmental factors that have been selected as important indicators in the target area into consideration. The information processing device 1 thus constructed is described below.

[0070] Figure 3 This is a block diagram of information processing device 1 in Embodiment 1 of the present invention.

[0071] like Figure 3 As shown, the information processing device 1 includes a storage unit 110, an acceptance unit 130, a processing unit 140, and an output unit 160. The information processing device 1 is, for example, a personal computer, but is not limited thereto, and may also be a server device or a portable information terminal. The information processing device 1 may be composed of one server, or may be composed of a plurality of servers operating in cooperation with each other, or may be an electronic computer built into other equipment. Furthermore, the server may be a so-called cloud server or an ASP server, and its type is not limited.

[0072] The storage unit 110 includes a model information storage unit 111, a monitoring information storage unit 113, and an extracted information storage unit 115. Although it is preferred that the storage unit 110 is a non-volatile storage medium, it can also be implemented by a volatile storage medium. In each part of the storage unit 110, for example, information accepted by the acceptance unit 130 and information obtained by the processing unit 140 are stored, but the information stored in each part of the storage unit 110 or the process of storing the information is not limited to this. For example, information can be stored in the storage unit 110 via a storage medium, information sent via a communication line, etc. can be stored in the storage unit 110, or information input by an input device can be stored in the storage unit 110.

[0073] The model information storage unit 111 has information about the distributed water cycle model stored therein. The information about the distributed water cycle model includes, for example, information about each grid constituting the model. The model information storage unit 111 has stored values ​​of each environmental element (parameter) applied to each grid. In addition, the model information storage unit 111 has stored information about the position of each grid. Information about each model has been stored corresponding to the object area. That is, when information about two or more object areas is processed in the information processing device 1, information about the model of each object area can be distinguished and identified from other models.

[0074] Monitoring information related to various environmental factors regarding the circulation status of water resources in the target area has been stored in the monitoring information storage unit 113. Monitoring information is observation data obtained by observing the specified monitoring items. The monitoring information is, for example, data measured by a measuring instrument, data obtained through a field survey, or data obtained from an observation agency, etc., but is not limited to these. For example, each piece of monitoring information is stored in correspondence with an identifier that identifies the corresponding environmental factor. For example, the monitoring information corresponds to location information corresponding to the observation location, but is not limited to this. The location information can be information indicating the location or information that can determine the corresponding grid. In addition, the monitoring information corresponds to time information indicating the moment of observation, for example, but is not limited to this. The monitoring information can also be time series information, that is, information indicating the transition of the value of the environmental factor.

[0075] In this embodiment, for each target area, the monitoring information is associated with the environmental element corresponding thereto. The relationship between the environmental element and the monitoring information may not be one-to-one. For one piece of monitoring information, more than two environmental elements may be associated, or for more than two pieces of monitoring information, one environmental element may be associated. An example is described below. For example, the monitoring information of the monitoring item "precipitation" may be stored in correspondence with an identifier that can identify the environmental element "precipitation". In addition, the monitoring information of the monitoring item "air temperature" may be stored in correspondence with an identifier that can identify the environmental element "evaporation in a specified area". In addition, the monitoring information of the monitoring item "observed water level at a specified location" may be stored in correspondence with identifiers that can identify environmental elements such as "precipitation", "evaporation in a specified area", "properties of soil such as topsoil or roughness in a specified area", and "water pumping of facilities under management". In addition, the monitoring information of the monitoring item "self-society pumping" may be stored in correspondence with an identifier that can identify the environmental element "water pumping of facilities under management". The monitoring information or the environmental element corresponding thereto is not limited to this. The monitoring information used for each target area or the environmental factors to be considered may be different for each target area according to its characteristics, etc., or may be set uniformly for each target area.

[0076] Extraction information identifying environmental elements extracted by the screening evaluation is stored in the extraction information storage unit 115. The extraction information may correspond, for example, an identifier identifying an extracted environmental element (high impact parameter) to an identifier identifying a distributed water cycle model, but is not limited thereto.

[0077] The receiving unit 130 receives information inputted using an input means connected to the information processing device 1, or information inputted by input operation using a reading device (e.g., an encoder, etc.) connected to the information processing device 1 (e.g., also including information read by the device). The received information is stored in the storage unit 110, for example. The input means that can be used to input information that can be received by the receiving unit 130 can be any one of a numeric keypad, a keyboard, a mouse, or a menu screen. The receiving unit 130 can be realized by a device driver of an input means such as a numeric keypad or a keyboard, or control software of a menu screen, etc. In addition, the receiving unit 130 can also receive information such as sound inputted through a microphone, for example.

[0078] The processing unit 140 can be implemented by an MPU or memory. Usually, the processing sequence of the processing unit 140 is implemented by software, and the software is recorded in a storage medium such as a ROM. However, it can also be implemented by hardware (dedicated circuit). The processing unit 140 performs various processes. Various processes are, for example, processes performed by each part of the processing unit 140 as follows.

[0079] In the present embodiment, the processing unit 140 includes an extracting unit 141 , a monitoring information acquiring unit 143 , a determining unit 145 , an element value acquiring unit 147 , a calculating unit 151 , and a forming unit 155 .

[0080] The extraction unit 141 extracts environmental factors that have a greater impact on the water balance calculation value as the predetermined conditions are satisfied. It can also be said that environmental factors that have a greater impact on the water balance calculation value are high-impact parameters. High-impact parameters are extracted from the parameter group used in the distributed water cycle model. The high-impact parameter can be one or more than one.

[0081] Various conditions can be set as pre-determined conditions. In the present embodiment, for example, for each environmental factor, the extraction unit 141 determines whether the result of the sensitivity analysis satisfies a predetermined extraction condition. As an extraction condition, for example, it can be appropriately set that the ratio of the calculated values ​​of the water balance before and after the change in the value is greater than a predetermined threshold value.

[0082] In this embodiment, the extracting unit 141 performs sensitivity analysis on the influence of each parameter on the water balance calculation value to extract the high-impact parameter. The extracting unit 141 changes the value of each environmental element to allow the calculating unit 151 to obtain the water balance calculation value.

[0083] The extraction unit 141 includes a parameter setting unit 1411 and a post-change calculation unit 1412 .

[0084] The parameter setting unit 1411 obtains observation data related to one or more environmental factors and observation data related to one or more water balance items from the storage unit 110. The observation data may be information of a predetermined monitoring item stored in the monitoring information storage unit 113 as monitoring information, or may be information stored in the storage unit 110 as other observation data.

[0085] The parameter setting unit 1411 sets the value of each environmental element in such a manner that the water balance calculation value calculated by the processing unit 140 using the value of each environmental element corresponding to the acquired observation data and the value of other environmental elements corresponds to the observation data related to the acquired water balance item. That is, the parameter setting unit 1411 sets the value of each environmental element to a reasonable value by comparing it with the observation data. For example, for an environmental element having corresponding observation data, it is sufficient to set the value corresponding to the observation data, and for other parameter values, it is sufficient to set them within the range of possible values ​​of the environmental element in such a manner that the difference between the observation data of the water balance and the water balance calculation value is within a prescribed value using an analytical method such as Newton's method.

[0086] The changed calculation unit 1412 changes the value of the environmental factor set by the parameter setting unit 1411 for each environmental factor, thereby calculating the water balance. The calculated value of the water balance thus calculated is called the changed calculated value. That is, the changed calculation unit 1412 obtains the changed calculated value.

[0087] In this embodiment, the changed calculation unit 1412 changes the value of the environmental factor set by the parameter setting unit 1411 by only a predetermined ratio for each environmental factor, thereby obtaining a changed calculated value. Specifically, for example, for one environmental factor, the set value is increased or decreased by only 1%, and the changed value is used to calculate the changed calculated value. And the ratio of change is not limited to this. In addition, for each environmental factor, the set value can also be added or subtracted by a pre-set change amount, thereby obtaining a value used in the calculation of the changed calculated value.

[0088] The extraction unit 141 extracts high-impact parameters for each environmental factor based on the post-change calculation value calculated by the post-change calculation unit 1412. In the present embodiment, the extraction unit 141 obtains the water balance calculation value for each environmental factor using the environmental factor group set by the parameter setting unit 1411. Thereafter, the difference between the obtained water balance calculation value and the post-change calculation value calculated by the post-change calculation unit 1412 is obtained. When the obtained difference is greater than a prescribed threshold value, the environmental factor is extracted as a high-impact parameter. Furthermore, when the ratio of the water balance calculation value to the post-change calculation value is greater than a prescribed threshold value, the extraction unit 141 can also extract the environmental factor as a high-impact parameter.

[0089] The extraction unit 141 performs sensitivity analysis for each environmental factor by changing such a value, thereby extracting a high-impact parameter that has a greater impact on the water balance calculation value as the predetermined condition is satisfied, that is, an environmental factor with a higher responsiveness to the water balance. Since the sensitivity analysis is performed using a value changed from the value set by the parameter setting unit 1411, the sensitivity of the environmental factor near a value that is considered to have a high probability of being actually taken can be confirmed.

[0090] Furthermore, it is also possible to limit the environmental factors (parameters to be the object of sensitivity analysis) to be extracted by the extraction unit 141. For example, environmental factors for which corresponding observation data can be obtained may not be the object of sensitivity analysis.

[0091] For example, sensitivity analysis can also quickly extract environmental factors that have a greater impact on the water balance of the target area by assuming an equilibrium state (stable state) that gives the effective precipitation obtained from average meteorological conditions. In addition, as an environmental factor related to the actual phenomenon, that is, the state in which meteorological conditions change (unstable state), for example, effective void ratio can be cited. The sensitivity related to environmental factors such as the effective void ratio can be evaluated by evaluating the sensitivity of other environmental factors in a stable state and then performing sensitivity analysis in an unstable state.

[0092] Furthermore, the extraction unit 141 may also extract high-impact parameters, for example, as follows. That is, the changed calculation unit 1412 may also change the value of the environmental factor set by the parameter setting unit 1411 to the maximum value and the minimum value within the acceptable range for each environmental factor, thereby obtaining two changed calculated values. At this time, the extraction unit 141 may also extract the environmental factor as a high-impact parameter for each environmental factor when the difference or ratio between the two changed calculated values ​​is greater than a predetermined threshold. Specifically, for example, when the ratio of the two changed calculated values ​​is greater than 1%, the environmental factor may be extracted as a high-impact parameter, but the determination method using the threshold value or the two changed calculated values ​​is not limited to this. In addition, for example, a sensitivity analysis may also be performed based on a changed calculated value calculated based on either the maximum value or the minimum value of the environmental factor and a water balance calculated value obtained using the environmental factor group set by the parameter setting unit 1411.

[0093] The monitoring information acquisition unit 143 acquires monitoring information related to the environmental elements of the target area. The monitoring information acquisition unit 143 acquires monitoring information input by a user or acquires monitoring information from information acquired by an external device. The monitoring information acquisition unit 143 accumulates the acquired monitoring information in the monitoring information storage unit 113.

[0094] In this embodiment, the monitoring information acquisition unit 143 acquires monitoring information related to the environmental factors, i.e., the high-impact parameters, extracted in advance by the extraction unit 141. For example, for a target area, when the environmental factors of "precipitation" or "evaporation in a specified area" are extracted in advance as high-impact parameters, the monitoring information of the monitoring items corresponding to each environmental factor, i.e., "precipitation", "temperature", and "observed water level at a specified location", is acquired. Furthermore, the relationship between the environmental factors and the monitoring items, i.e., the acquired monitoring information, is not limited to this.

[0095] The judgment unit 145 judges whether the prescribed conditions related to the changes in the monitoring information obtained by the monitoring information acquisition unit 143 are satisfied. The prescribed conditions are, for example, conditions related to the relationship between the monitoring information for a specific monitoring item and a prescribed threshold value, or the monitoring information obtained for a specific monitoring item indicating that a prescribed phenomenon has occurred, etc., but are not limited to these. For example, prescribed conditions are set for each monitoring item, but there may also be conditions that are commonly applied to the monitoring information of each monitoring item. In addition, for example, prescribed conditions are set for each object area, but are not limited to this. There may also be conditions that are commonly used for each object area.

[0096] As the predetermined condition, it is preferable to set a condition that can be associated with a phenomenon that the amount of water conservation in a predetermined area decreases, the amount of groundwater decreases, or the flow rate of a river decreases. For example, the condition that the water level at a predetermined location is lower than a predetermined threshold value, the condition that the amount of precipitation in a predetermined period is lower than a predetermined threshold value, or the condition that the amount of water pumped in a managed facility in a predetermined period is higher than a predetermined threshold value can be used as a condition, but it is not limited to these.

[0097] When the determination unit 145 determines that the prescribed conditions have been met, the element value acquisition unit 147 acquires the future predicted value, i.e., the future element value, for the environmental element related to the change of the monitoring information. In the present embodiment, for the change of the monitoring information related to two or more environmental elements, when it is determined that the prescribed conditions have been met, the element value acquisition unit 147 determines the environmental element that is particularly related to the change among the two or more environmental elements related to the monitoring information. Thereafter, the element value acquisition unit 147 acquires the future element value for the determined environmental element. At this time, it is not necessary to acquire the future element value for the other environmental elements.

[0098] For example, when it is determined that the change in the monitoring information of the observed water level at a predetermined location satisfies the predetermined conditions, the element value acquisition unit 147 acquires the future predicted value for the environmental factor related to the change in the monitoring information of the observed water level. Here, when the monitoring information of the observed water level is related to environmental factors such as "precipitation", "water pumping amount of facilities under management", and "evaporation" for the target area, the element value acquisition unit 147 identifies the environmental factor that caused the change that satisfied the predetermined conditions, and acquires the future element value for the environmental factor.

[0099] The future element value is a predicted value for the environmental element in the future. It can be said that the future element value is the value of the environmental element predicted in a scenario related to a specified area that is envisioned in the future. The scenario related to the specified area can be related to the predicted climate or land use in the specified area or its surroundings, and can also be related to the prediction of environmental changes on a global scale. The future element value is, for example, time series information, but it can also be a predicted value at a specified time. The envisioned scenario may change with the passage of time, so the future element value may be different depending on the time it is obtained. When there are more than two envisioned scenarios, it is also possible to obtain a future element value related to an environmental element for each scenario.

[0100] The future factor value may be based on information disclosed by various agencies or documents, for example. In addition, the future factor value may be based on the result of simulation using a computer or the like by a predetermined method. In addition, it may be information obtained by inference based on input information different from information related to environmental factors using learning information formed by a machine learning method.

[0101] The calculation unit 151 uses the distributed water cycle model to obtain the water balance calculation value based on the values ​​of the applied environmental element group. In the present embodiment, the calculation unit 151 obtains the water balance calculation value based on the future element value obtained by the element value acquisition unit 147. That is, among the values ​​of the environmental elements that have been applied in advance to the distributed water cycle model, the values ​​of the environmental elements whose future element values ​​have been obtained are replaced with the future element values, and the water balance calculation value is obtained on this basis. That is, the future water balance calculation value is obtained by the calculation unit 151 for the environmental elements related to the changes in the monitoring information judged to meet the prescribed conditional degree using the future element values ​​of the scene predicted at that moment. It can be said that the future water balance calculation value obtained in this way more accurately represents the future situation than the future water balance calculation value that has been obtained for the target area in the past.

[0102] Furthermore, in the present embodiment, the calculation unit 151 is configured to obtain the water balance calculation value and the information about the uncertainty thereof together based on the information indicating the uncertainty of the future element value. The information indicating the uncertainty of the future element value can be obtained by the element value acquisition unit 147. The element value acquisition unit 147 is configured to acquire information such as the standard deviation and dispersion of the future element value as the information indicating the uncertainty thereof. For example, when the future element value of the environmental element "temperature" is acquired, the magnitude of the increase or decrease of the future element value and the information about the possibility thereof can be acquired.

[0103] The element value acquisition unit 147 can also be configured to acquire future element values ​​and information indicating their uncertainty for two or more environmental elements. In this case, the calculation unit 151 acquires information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value (uncertainty information caused by the future element value) for each environmental element based on the information indicating the uncertainty of the future element value of each environmental element acquired by the element value acquisition unit 147. Thereafter, for two or more environmental elements, the uncertainty information caused by the acquired future element values ​​is synthesized to acquire information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value. For example, the synthesized standard uncertainty when the uncertainty information of each environmental element is used as the standard uncertainty can be obtained as information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value, but the method is not limited to this.

[0104] Here, the uncertainty of the distributed water cycle model may be referred to to obtain information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value. That is, as shown below, the calculation unit 151 may also obtain information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value caused by the distributed water cycle model (uncertainty information caused by the model), and obtain information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value based on this. The acquisition of information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value may be performed based on only the uncertainty information caused by the future element value for each of two or more environmental elements, or based on only the uncertainty information caused by the model, or by synthesizing the two types of uncertainty information.

[0105] When the uncertainty information caused by the model is obtained, for example, the calculation unit 151 will include sample value groups within the range that each environmental factor can take, and make two or more groups in such a way that the sample values ​​of at least one environmental factor are different from each other. In this embodiment, the calculation unit 151 makes the sample values ​​of at least one high-impact parameter among the high-impact parameters extracted by the extraction unit 141 different from each other, and makes two or more groups of sample value groups. For example, a quantitative evaluation method, i.e., a Monte Carlo method or a Latin hypercube sampling method, etc., can be used to make a sample value group. More preferably, by using the Latin hypercube sampling method, a sample value group for efficient quantification can be made. In addition, the sample value group can also be made as follows: for each parameter as a different value, the value is changed from the minimum value to the maximum value of the range that can be taken, and the sample value group is made while changing the value by each specified difference, and various methods are used.

[0106] Next, the calculation unit 151 applies the two or more sample value groups that have been prepared to the distributed water cycle model to calculate the water balance. The calculated value of the water balance calculated in this way is called a sample calculated value. That is, the calculation unit 151 obtains the sample calculated value corresponding to each sample value group. The obtained sample calculated value is stored in the storage unit 110, for example.

[0107] After that, the calculation unit 151 obtains information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value obtained using the distributed water cycle model based on the sample calculation values ​​corresponding to each sample value group that have been obtained. In other words, the calculation unit 151 uses the sample calculation values ​​to evaluate the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value. For example, the calculation unit 151 performs statistical processing on two or more sample calculation values ​​that have been obtained using two or more sample value groups, calculates a value related to the deviation of the sample calculation values, and obtains it as information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value. Specifically, for example, as information related to the uncertainty, the value of the standard deviation calculated by statistical processing, the value calculated using the standard deviation, or the reliable interval, etc. may be obtained, but it is not limited to this.

[0108] Here, in the present embodiment, the calculation unit 151 obtains, for example, observation data related to one or more environmental factors and observation data related to one or more water balance items from the storage unit 110. The observation data can be obtained in the same manner as the method based on the parameter setting unit 1411 described above, but the present invention is not limited thereto. Then, the calculation unit 151 compares the sample value group and the sample calculated value corresponding thereto with the observation data, thereby confirming that the reproducibility with the observation data is ensured for the calculation of the sample calculated value from the sample value group. The judgment of ensuring the reproducibility can be made, for example, by judging that the difference between each observation data and the sample value and the sample calculated value is within a prescribed value, but the present invention is not limited thereto. Then, the calculation unit 151 obtains, as information related to the uncertainty, a value related to the deviation of the sample calculated value obtained by statistically processing the sample calculated value confirmed to have ensured the reproducibility. In this way, by using the sample calculated value confirmed to be reliable by comparing it with the observation data, the information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculated value can be obtained with higher accuracy.

[0109] Furthermore, when evaluating the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value of the target area, if the sample calculation value of the target area based on the water cycle model whose reproducibility is confirmed is insufficient, it is preferable to increase the number of sample value groups, i.e., the number of samples, and obtain a sufficient number of sample calculation values ​​to confirm that reproducibility is ensured. In this way, it is possible to obtain highly accurate information related to uncertainty.

[0110] When the calculation unit 151 has obtained the water balance calculation value, the formation unit 155 uses the water balance calculation value to form output data. That is, the formation unit 155 forms output data related to the future circulation state of water resources based on the future water balance calculation value. The output data can be, for example, the water balance calculation value itself, or information corresponding to the comparison result with a specified threshold value, or information related to the presence or absence of risk. The information corresponding to the comparison result with the specified threshold value can be, for example, information indicating the comparison result, information prepared in advance for each comparison result, or information such as a curve chart comparing the change of the water balance calculation value with a specified threshold value. The information related to the presence or absence of risk can be information indicating the presence or absence of risk, or information indicating the content of the risk, etc.

[0111] In this embodiment, when the calculation unit 151 has obtained information related to uncertainty, the formation unit 155 forms output data by associating the water balance calculation value with the information related to uncertainty. For example, when a 95% reliable interval is obtained as information related to uncertainty by the calculation unit 151, the output data formed by the formation unit 155 can be formed so that the water balance calculation value and its 95% reliable interval can be obtained. The output data is output by the output unit 160, etc., so that the user of the information processing device 1 can obtain the future water balance calculation value that is quantified including the reliable interval.

[0112] In this embodiment, the output unit 160 outputs information by, for example, displaying the information on a display device provided in the information processing apparatus 1. In this embodiment, the output unit 160 outputs, for example, output data configured using the configuration unit 155. That is, the output unit 160 can output information related to the future circulation state of water resources in the target area based on the water balance calculation value and the information indicating the uncertainty thereof.

[0113] Furthermore, the output unit 160 may be configured to output information by sending information to other devices via a network or the like using a transmission unit (not shown) or the like. The output unit 160 may be considered to include output devices such as a display or a speaker, or may be considered not to include them. The output unit 160 may be implemented by driver software of the output device or by the driver software of the output device and the output device or the like.

[0114] Furthermore, in this embodiment, the information processing device 1 can also be configured to reproduce the circulation state of water resources between grids through a distributed water cycle model, and connect the calculation results with the location information of each grid, and display them as geographic information to visualize the spatial distribution, thereby being able to determine locations that are important for water resource management. The monitoring information acquisition unit 143 can also be configured to acquire monitoring information related to locations that are important for water resource management based on the results.

[0115] That is, at this time, the composition unit 155 constitutes information related to the circulation state of water resources at each location in the specified area (hereinafter sometimes referred to as location information) as output data based on the water balance calculation value corresponding to each grid and the position information corresponding to each grid obtained by the calculation unit 151. The location information is, for example, information that corresponds the location information of each grid to the water balance calculation value. That is, the location information, for example, includes location information related to a plurality of grids in the specified area and the corresponding water balance calculation value. It can be said that such location information is information representing the spatial distribution of the water balance calculation value in the specified area. In addition, the location information is not limited to the information containing each grid, but can also include information of each location that is divided larger than the division of the grid. Such location information can also be constructed so that the information of each location is calculated by the composition unit 155 based on the location information of each grid and the water balance calculation value.

[0116] For example, information indicating the spatial distribution of various water balances can be used as location information. For example, the spatial distribution of water that infiltrates as soil water, the spatial distribution of water that is conserved as groundwater, the spatial distribution of water that flows into a specific area as groundwater, the spatial distribution of water that flows out to the surface as spring water, or the spatial distribution of water that flows out to a river as river water can be used as location information.

[0117] The configuration unit 155 may also obtain geographic information for visually displaying the shape of a specified area. The geographic information is, for example, information for displaying a map. The geographic information may be a two-dimensional map image, an aerial photograph, a satellite photograph, etc. of a specified area, or may be depiction information for rendering and displaying the shape of a specified area using specified software. The depiction information may be information representing a two-dimensional image, or may be information capable of depicting a three-dimensional shape. The geographic information is, for example, information that has been pre-stored in the storage unit 110, but is not limited thereto. For example, the processing unit 140 may also be configured to be able to obtain geographic information sent from an external server or the like that can communicate with the information processing device 1.

[0118] When the location information is constructed in this way, the output unit 160 outputs the constructed location information. For example, the output unit 160 outputs the location information together with the shape of the specified area corresponding to the geographic information based on the geographic information so that the user can visually confirm it. Outputting in a manner that can be visually confirmed refers to, for example, displaying on a display, etc., but it is not limited to this, and it can also be image formation on paper, etc., display on other devices, or sending information for image formation. By visually confirming the location information using the output unit 160, the user can easily grasp the spatial distribution of water balance. In addition, the output unit 160 can also output the location information without using the geographic information. Since the location information contains information corresponding to the location information of each location and the water balance calculation value, even in this case, the user can easily grasp the spatial distribution of the water balance. In addition, even in this case, the output unit 160 can also be configured so that the distribution of the water balance calculation value can be visually confirmed based on the location information of each location.

[0119] Furthermore, when outputting location information, it is preferred to display each location in a different form according to the size of the water balance calculation value at each location. For example, a heat map with different tones or shades corresponding to the size of the water balance calculation value, or a font size or thickness that is different according to the size of the water balance calculation value when the water balance calculation value is represented by a numerical value, or a bar chart that represents the water balance calculation value, etc., can be used to display each location in a different form. By outputting location information in such a display form, the user can more intuitively grasp the spatial distribution of the water balance.

[0120] The forming unit 155 may also obtain observation data related to the balance of water resources corresponding to one or more grids, and form location information based on the water balance calculation value, position information, and observation data obtained by the calculation unit 151. In this case, the location information may further include: the value of a predetermined parameter calculated by the forming unit 155 based on the water balance calculation value; and the value of a predetermined parameter based on the observation data.

[0121] In this way, when the location information is constructed based on the observation data, for example, for a location with observation data, more accurate observation data than the water balance calculation value is output, so that the user can grasp the spatial distribution of the water balance with higher accuracy. In addition, at this time, for a location with observation data, the water balance calculation value and the observation data can also be output in correspondence with each other. Thus, the user can easily confirm the degree of reproducibility of the distributed water cycle model, which can be used as a reference when using the location information.

[0122] By outputting the location information in this way, the user can easily grasp the spatial distribution of water balance in the specified area using the location information. By confirming the difference between the water balance of each location in the specified area and other locations, it is easy to determine the location to be focused when studying water resource management measures in the specified area.

[0123] Furthermore, the component 155 may also be configured to include information related to a comparison result in the location information, the comparison result being a comparison result between a value of a prescribed parameter representing the circulation state of water resources at each location and a prescribed threshold value. Here, the value of the prescribed parameter may be a water balance calculation value or a cumulative value of the water balance calculation value, or may be a value of another parameter. For example, the component 155 may also compare the water balance calculation value with a prescribed threshold value in each grid, and correspond the comparison result to the position information corresponding to the grid, thereby constituting the location information. By outputting such location information by the output unit 160, the user can easily grasp the spatial distribution at a location where the water balance calculation value exceeds the threshold value (or a location where the water balance calculation value is lower than the threshold value). By accurately setting the threshold value according to the purpose, the user can easily determine the location to be concerned when studying the management measures for water resources in the prescribed area. Moreover, even in this case, when the comparison result satisfies the prescribed conditions (when the value is positive, when the value is negative, etc.), or according to the magnitude of the comparison result, it is also preferred to make the display form of each location different.

[0124] Here, the predetermined threshold value may be, for example, a value corresponding to an average value of the values ​​of the predetermined parameter at each point in the predetermined area.

[0125] For example, the location information may also indicate information related to the comparison result of the effective precipitation value at each location and the effective precipitation per unit area of ​​a specified area (i.e., the average effective precipitation value at each location). In this case, when managing the conservation amount, for example, the location where the effective precipitation value exceeds the average value can be regarded as an important location and the user can pay attention to it.

[0126] In addition, for example, the location information may also indicate information related to the comparison result of the river flow value at each location and the river flow per unit drainage area of ​​a specified area (i.e., the average value of the river flow at each location of the river). In this case, when managing the river flow, the place where the river flow value exceeds the average value can be regarded as an important place to draw the user's attention.

[0127] Next, an example of the operation flow of the information processing device 1 will be described.

[0128] Figure 4 This is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the information processing device 1 .

[0129] (Step S11) The processing unit 140 acquires information related to the water cycle model for the target area. The acquired information is accumulated in, for example, the model information storage unit 111. Thus, the calculation unit 151 can acquire a calculated value of water balance in the target area using the water cycle model.

[0130] (Step S12 ) The processing unit 140 performs a process of extracting high-influence parameters.

[0131] Figure 5 1 is a flowchart showing an example of a process of extracting a high-impact parameter by the information processing device 1 .

[0132] (Step S21 ) The processing unit 140 sets the counter i to zero.

[0133] (Step S22) The processing unit 140 increments the counter i.

[0134] (Step S23 ) The processing unit 140 selects the i-th environmental factor for sensitivity analysis.

[0135] (Step S24 ) The processing unit 140 obtains the range of possible values ​​of the selected environmental factor.

[0136] (Step S25 ) The processing unit 140 changes the value of the selected environmental element and performs sensitivity analysis.

[0137] (Step S26) The processing unit 140 determines whether the result of the sensitivity analysis satisfies a predetermined extraction condition. As the extraction condition, for example, as described above, it is set that the ratio of the calculated values ​​of the water balance before and after the change is greater than a predetermined threshold value. If the extraction condition is satisfied, the process proceeds to step S27, otherwise, the process proceeds to step S28.

[0138] (Step S27) The processing unit 140 sets the selected environmental element as an extraction target. That is, the processing unit 140 extracts the selected environmental element as a high-impact parameter.

[0139] (Step S28) The processing unit 140 determines whether the count i is consistent with the total number of environmental factors for sensitivity analysis. If it is consistent, the extraction process ends and returns to the upper level process. If it is inconsistent, it returns to step S22.

[0140] (Step S13) Return Figure 4 , the processing unit 140 obtains the monitoring information.

[0141] (Step S14) The processing unit 140 determines whether a predetermined condition related to the change in the monitoring information is satisfied. If it is determined that the predetermined condition is satisfied, the process proceeds to step S15, otherwise, the process returns to step S13.

[0142] (Step S15) In response to the predetermined condition being satisfied, the processing unit 140 specifies an environmental factor. For example, the processing unit 140 can specify an environmental factor corresponding to the monitoring information that satisfies the predetermined condition.

[0143] (Step S16 ) The processing unit 140 obtains future element values ​​for the identified environmental elements.

[0144] (Step S17) The processing unit 140 obtains a future water balance calculation value in the target area using the future element value.

[0145] (Step S18 ) The processing unit 140 outputs information on the future circulation state of water resources based on the acquired water balance calculation value.

[0146] By executing the process of step S18, the user can obtain information on the future circulation state of water resources in the target area. The user can make use of the acquired information to study risks related to water resources or decide on actions to prevent risks from becoming apparent.

[0147] When executing such a series of processes in the information processing device 1, the information prepared by the user and input to the information processing device 1 may be appropriately used in a part of the processes. For example, the information processing device 1 may automatically obtain future element values ​​from an information source connectable via a network or the like through the processing unit 140, but values ​​obtained by the user through research on other scenarios or the like may also be used as future element values. In addition, the processing unit 140 may obtain monitoring information automatically input from a measuring device or the like, or may obtain monitoring information measured by the user and input to the information processing device 1.

[0148] Furthermore, the acquisition of monitoring information or the determination of whether the prescribed conditions related to its change are satisfied may be performed regularly, for example, every time a prescribed time has passed. The period may be shorter than the time until the environmental factor changes. For example, it may be performed regularly, for example, every time a prescribed number of days has passed or every year.

[0149] Furthermore, in the present embodiment, in order to obtain information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value by referring to the uncertainty of the distributed water cycle model as described above, it is sufficient to perform processing related to quantitative evaluation by the information processing device 1 as follows, for example. Such processing can be appropriately performed after obtaining the water cycle model in step S11 in the above-mentioned flowchart.

[0150] Figure 6 1 is a flowchart showing an example of quantitative evaluation performed by the information processing device 1 .

[0151] (Step S31 ) The processing unit 140 creates two or more groups of sample values ​​using, for example, the Latin hypercube sampling method.

[0152] (Step S32 ) The processing unit 140 performs analysis using the distributed water cycle model on each of the prepared sample value groups, and obtains sample calculated values.

[0153] (Step S33 ) The processing unit 140 checks whether each combination of the sample value group and the sample calculated value is suitable for the reproducibility index based on the observation data.

[0154] (Step S34 ) The processing unit 140 limits the number of sample calculation values ​​used for uncertainty evaluation based on the verification result related to reproducibility.

[0155] (Step S335) The processing unit 340 calculates the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value, that is, the range that the water balance calculation value can take, using the sample calculation value confirmed to be suitable for the reproducibility index. Thereafter, the quantitative evaluation ends.

[0156] By performing uncertainty evaluation in this manner, it is possible to obtain information indicating the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value caused by the uncertainty of the distributed water cycle model.

[0157] The characteristics of the system in which the water cycle occurs in nature are that it is an uncertain system for which sufficient information is basically not available, an unstable system that can change constantly, and an open system with unclear boundaries. It is impossible to obtain evaluation results based on a complete understanding of the phenomena related to the water cycle in nature, so it is important to be able to predict the phenomena occurring in the water cycle in nature with as high accuracy as possible.

[0158] In the past, when managing water resources, abnormalities were usually detected based on the measured values ​​of water balance items that were directly monitored. For example, when the measured value of the water level of a measurable pumping well was abnormal, detection of the abnormality was performed. Since the results of abnormalities related to the water cycle were monitored, it was impossible to prevent the risks related to the water cycle from surfacing in advance.

[0159] In this regard, in the present embodiment, monitoring information associated with environmental factors acting on the water cycle is used, and when the prescribed conditions related to the change of the monitoring information are satisfied, the water balance calculation value in the target area is obtained based on the future element value of the environmental factor corresponding to the monitoring information. Even in the case where the expected state of the environmental factor changes due to climate change or changes in the trend of surrounding land use, information related to the future circulation state of water resources reflecting the situation can be obtained at the stage where the change of the monitoring information satisfies the prescribed conditions. Thus, the user can flexibly apply the obtained information to the evaluation of the risk related to the water resources in the target area, or the research and decision-making related to the implementation of the risk surface prevention measures. In other words, by using the information processing device, the phenomenon occurring in the water cycle in nature can be predicted with high accuracy, and useful information for correctly grasping the risk related to the water resources in the target area or for implementing the risk surface prevention measures can be obtained.

[0160] By using such an information processing device or information processing method, preventive and adaptive efforts can be correctly made for the management of water resources. That is, in the target area, it is possible to detect at an early stage that a situation that was not envisioned in the initial forecast can be encountered, and improvement goals can be set to formulate a plan related to the use of water resources. In addition, with the completion of the plan related to the use of water resources, it is possible to scientifically and objectively verify whether the goal has been achieved based on observation data, and it can be appropriately fed back to the re-evaluation of the plan.

[0161] Information on the future circulation state of water resources is outputted together with information indicating the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value. Therefore, water resource management activities can be performed more reliably based on the quantified future water balance calculation value.

[0162] Furthermore, in each target area, there are different environmental factors that have a greater impact on its water cycle. In each target area, more dominant environmental factors or monitoring information associated therewith are used to detect changes in monitoring information or obtain corresponding water balance calculation values, so that users can flexibly apply more accurate information to carry out water resource management activities. In addition, only using more dominant environmental factors or monitoring information associated therewith to detect changes in monitoring information or obtain corresponding water balance calculation values ​​can reduce the burden required to obtain monitoring information, obtain future factor values, or obtain water balance calculation values, and can more easily obtain information that can be flexibly applied to water resource management activities.

[0163] Furthermore, the processing in this embodiment can also be implemented by software. Furthermore, the software can also be distributed by software downloading, etc. In addition, the software can also be recorded on a storage medium such as a CD and distributed.

[0164] Furthermore, the software for realizing the information processing device 1 in the present embodiment is the following program. That is, the program is a program executed by the computer of the information processing device 1, and is a program for causing the computer of the information processing device 1 to function as a monitoring information acquisition unit, a judgment unit, an element value acquisition unit, a calculation unit, and an output unit. The monitoring information acquisition unit acquires monitoring information related to environmental elements of the circulation state of water resources in the target area, the judgment unit judges whether a prescribed condition related to the change of the monitoring information acquired by the monitoring information acquisition unit is satisfied, when it is judged that the prescribed condition is satisfied, the element value acquisition unit acquires a future predicted value of the environmental element related to the change of the monitoring information, that is, a future element value, the calculation unit acquires a water balance calculation value related to the balance of water resources in the target area based on the future element value, and the output unit outputs information related to the future circulation state of water resources in the target area based on the water balance calculation value.

[0165] Furthermore, in the present embodiment, it can also be said that the information processing device 1 performs the following information processing method. That is, such an information processing method includes: an acquisition step of acquiring monitoring information related to environmental factors related to the circulation state of water resources in the target area; a judgment step of judging whether a prescribed condition related to the change of the monitoring information is satisfied; an element value acquisition step of acquiring a future predicted value of the environmental factor related to the change of the monitoring information, i.e., a future element value, when it is judged that the prescribed condition is satisfied; and a calculation step of acquiring a water balance calculation value related to the balance of water resources in the target area based on the future element value.

[0166] In such an information processing method, the element value acquisition step further acquires information indicating uncertainty of future element values, and the calculation step further acquires information related to uncertainty of water balance calculation values ​​based on future element values ​​and information indicating uncertainty thereof. In this case, the information processing method may further include a comparison step of comparing the water balance calculation value with a predetermined threshold value based on the information related to uncertainty of the water balance calculation value. Such an information processing method may be used to evaluate risks related to water resources in a target area or to conduct research related to implementation of preventive measures for the manifestation of such risks.

[0167] Furthermore, in such an information processing method, the steps performed by the information processing device 1 may be only a part of the steps. In this case, the other steps may be performed by other devices or by an operator, and the results are input to the information processing device 1, etc., and the part of the steps is performed. In addition, the part of the steps may be performed by the information processing device 1, and the other steps may be performed by other devices or by an operator using the results. For example, the calculation step may be performed by the information processing device 1, and the other steps may be performed by an operator using a measuring instrument or other computer as appropriate.

[0168] In the above-mentioned embodiments, it is also possible to extract highly influential parameters in the target area, obtain the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value caused by the water cycle model, or obtain the uncertainty of the future element value.

[0169] Hereinafter, application examples of the information processing device 1 and the information processing method according to the above-described embodiment will be described.

[0170] Figure 7 It is a diagram showing the relationship between elements related to the water cycle in the target area involved in the application example of the present embodiment.

[0171] In the figure, in one target area, matters related to an example of risk related to the water cycle, its elements, related environmental elements, and corresponding monitoring items are shown. In the figure, for example, in the target area, it is shown that the water level of the pumping well is abnormal, which has become a risk surface, and the use of groundwater by the facilities in the target area may be hindered.

[0172] Such factors that may affect the abnormal water level in the pumping well include, for example, climate change, measures such as land use by the local government in the target area, or business trends of companies (private companies, etc.) operating in the target area.

[0173] In this embodiment, in the target area, the environmental factors that have been extracted as high-impact parameters through sensitivity analysis are precipitation, evaporation in the specified area D, surface soil or roughness of each of the specified areas A, B, and C, and the amount of water pumped by the company. Among them, precipitation and evaporation can be said to be environmental factors affected by climate change, surface soil or roughness can be said to be environmental factors affected by measures taken by the local government, and the amount of water pumped by the company can be said to be an environmental factor affected by the company's business trends.

[0174] Corresponding monitoring items are set for these environmental factors. That is, precipitation corresponds to the environmental factor of precipitation. The monitoring item of temperature corresponds to evaporation. The monitoring items for observing water level correspond to precipitation, evaporation, surface soil or roughness, and water pumping. The monitoring item of self-pumping corresponds to the water pumping of the self-pumping.

[0175] As a result of setting the relationship between the elements related to the water cycle, in this embodiment, when the prescribed conditions related to the change of the monitoring item are satisfied, the environmental elements that affect the change of the monitoring item are determined. Thereafter, the future element values ​​are obtained for the determined environmental elements, and the future water balance calculation value is obtained based on the future element values. For example, the future groundwater level is obtained as the water balance calculation value. For example, scenario prediction can be performed to prepare the future element values.

[0176] Since the future groundwater level can be obtained in this way, it is possible to study the risk of abnormal water level in a pumping well or preventive measures for surfacing the risk, for example.

[0177] Figure 8 This is a diagram showing an example of monitoring information related to this application example.

[0178] The figure shows the water level of the observation data (groundwater level raw data, groundwater level annual average) involved in the groundwater level monitoring project. For this monitoring project, the groundwater level annual average is lower than the specified reference value as a specified condition. In the figure, the groundwater level annual average is lower than the reference value in 2013, so it is judged that the specified condition has been met in 2013. In addition, in this application example, the reference value is the value obtained by subtracting the standard deviation from the average value.

[0179] In this way, environmental factors are determined according to the change of groundwater level. Here, the monitoring items of groundwater level correspond to precipitation, evaporation, topsoil or roughness, and pumping amount, and the result can determine which environmental factor caused the change of groundwater level. In this embodiment, first, a tracking model of groundwater level with precipitation as a predicate variable is used to confirm whether precipitation is the cause. Afterwards, when precipitation cannot be said to be the cause, it is judged whether the groundwater level changes with the change of pumping amount, thereby confirming whether pumping amount is the cause. When it is still not possible to say that pumping amount is the cause, evaporation or land use is regarded as the cause to determine the environmental factor.

[0180] Fig. 9 This is a diagram for explaining the determination of environmental elements involved in this application example.

[0181] As shown in the figure, first, the tracking model of the groundwater level is analyzed using the precipitation at the specified location (well No. 1) as the predicate variable (step S81). Here, at the specified location, it is confirmed that the transition of the groundwater level obtained by the tracking model (circular mark) follows the actual observation data (thick solid line).

[0182] If it is confirmed that the groundwater level change at the specified location can be tracked by using the precipitation as a predicate variable, then at another location (well No. 2), analysis is performed by using the tracking model of the groundwater level using the precipitation as a predicate variable (step S82). Even here, at this location, it is confirmed that the transition of the groundwater level obtained by the tracking model (circular mark) follows the actual observation data (thick solid line). Therefore, since the precipitation is more strongly estimated to be the cause, the precipitation is determined as the environmental factor that becomes the cause.

[0183] And, if the observation data of precipitation is actually confirmed, a gentle decreasing trend will be found (step S83). Therefore, even from this point, it is known that the possibility that the decrease in precipitation is the cause is high.

[0184] If precipitation is determined as an environmental factor, the future element value of precipitation is obtained using data such as climate change prediction. As data such as climate change prediction, for example, data from the "Future Climate Change Policy Decision Database (d4PDF)" can be used. As a future element value, for example, information representing the frequency distribution of precipitation is obtained based on different future temperature increases. For example, a regression equation is prepared using the temperature increase value as a variable, and precipitation prediction data in the target area can be prepared using the prepared regression equation. At this time, it is preferred to obtain information representing the uncertainty of the precipitation prediction data using standard deviation or the like based on the uncertainty of the precipitation prediction data and the temperature prediction data.

[0185] Furthermore, several scenarios can be considered regarding future climate change.

[0186] Fig.10 This is a diagram showing an example of temperature prediction data related to this application example.

[0187] The figure shows the predicted results of the change in the world average surface temperature for different greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here, the temperature prediction results for two scenarios are shown: a low emission scenario in which GHG emissions are successfully reduced and a high emission scenario in which GHG emissions continue to be high. In each scenario, it is also possible to consider scenarios with higher temperatures and scenarios with lower temperatures, and the coloring indicates the range.

[0188] As shown in the figure, in the low emission scenario, the future temperature rise is relatively suppressed. On the other hand, in the high emission scenario, the future temperature rise continues. By obtaining the future element value of precipitation in each of these two scenarios, the future water balance calculation value in each scenario can be obtained.

[0189] Furthermore, if the temperature rises more, the precipitation in the target area decreases. Therefore, when the above two scenarios are assumed, only the future element value of the precipitation in the scenario that may cause a serious situation on the groundwater level can be obtained, and the future water balance calculation value can be obtained. In this case, the processing amount of the information processing device 1 can be reduced, and a study that takes more safety risks into consideration can be performed.

[0190] Fig.11 This is a diagram showing an example of information showing the circulation state of water resources in the future according to this application example.

[0191] The figure shows the results of future groundwater level prediction in the high emission scenario where GHG emission suppression fails. The solid line is the average scenario, and the thin dotted line is the scenario with more or less precipitation and the scenario at the boundary of the 68% confidence interval.

[0192] In the figure, the abnormal threshold value for judging the groundwater level as abnormal is indicated by a thick dotted line. As a result, it is found that the groundwater level is located above the abnormal threshold value even in the scene with less precipitation, as expected in the average scene. That is, from such information, it is known that the groundwater level is unlikely to reach an abnormal level even in the conceivable -1σ scene. Therefore, it can be confirmed that by continuing to manage water resources in the current form in the future, the water resources in the target area can be continuously used in a sustainable form.

[0193] Furthermore, in the above application example, although an example is shown in which precipitation is determined as the cause of the change in monitoring information, when other environmental factors are determined as the cause of the change in monitoring information, the future factor value may be obtained in the following form, for example.

[0194] For example, when the pumping amount (water use) in the target area is determined as the cause, the future element value can be obtained by estimating the value of the future pumping amount in the target area based on a scenario related to changes in water demand in the target area.

[0195] Changes in water demand in the target area may be caused by changes in population and industrial structure. Water use for domestic purposes may decrease due to a decrease in population or the popularization of water-saving equipment. In addition, for industrial water such as industry, agriculture, and aquaculture, the amount of use may change depending on the industry or market trends involved in its use. For example, such changes can sometimes be grasped through hydrological survey results, reports, or groundwater protection measures produced by local governments or public groups in the target area. By creating basic scenarios with such information, future element values ​​can be obtained.

[0196] In addition to the basic scenarios, scenarios are created for domestic water use that assume the population is maintained or increased due to the success of regional revitalization measures, and scenarios that assume market expansion or changes in demand trends are created for industrial water use, and future element values ​​can be obtained. In the creation of such scenarios, future element values ​​are prepared through plans and reports created by local governments, etc., and scenarios that intend to expand water use, and future water balance calculation values ​​are obtained, so that research that takes more safety risks into consideration can be conducted.

[0197] In addition, for example, when it is determined that environmental factors related to land use, such as topsoil, roughness, or evaporation in the target area are the cause, the values ​​representing the properties of the soil, such as topsoil or roughness in the target area, are estimated based on the scenario of changes in reference land use, thereby obtaining future element values.

[0198] Land use in the target area may change due to changes in population or industrial structure. Generally speaking, public plans such as master plans are established in various places to determine future land use policies based on changes in population or industrial structure. Based on such public plans, several scenarios can be created. For example, a scenario can be created in which the status quo is maintained, a scenario in which the master plan is successful but the land use status changes while maintaining the plan, and a scenario in which the master plan fails and forest or farmland is reduced or wasteland develops.

[0199] Furthermore, for each scenario related to such a change in land use, it is possible to create a scenario in which a landslide disaster occurs and the topsoil of the area specified in the disaster map is lost, as well as a scenario in which such a disaster does not occur. This is because when the topsoil is lost, the geology below it is the same as that of wasteland, and the roughness coefficient may change.

[0200] other

[0201] Fig.12 It is an external view of the computer system 800 in the above-mentioned embodiment. Fig.13 is a block diagram of the computer system 800 .

[0202] These figures show configuration examples of computers such as information processing devices that implement the above-described embodiments by executing the programs described in this specification. The above-described embodiments can be implemented by computer hardware and computer programs executed thereon.

[0203] The computer system 800 includes a computer 801 having an optical disk drive, a keyboard 802 , a mouse 803 , and a monitor 804 .

[0204] In addition to the optical disk drive (ODD) 8012, the computer 801 also includes: MPU 8013; bus 8014 connected to the optical disk drive 8012, etc.; ROM 8015 for storing programs such as a boot program; RAM 8016 connected to the MPU 8013 and used to temporarily store application commands and provide temporary storage space; and a hard disk (HDD) 8017 for storing application programs, system programs, and data. Although not shown in the figure, the computer 801 may also include a network card that provides connection to a LAN.

[0205] In the computer system 800, the program for executing the functions of the information processing device and the like of the above-mentioned embodiment can also be stored in the optical disk 8101, and further transferred to the hard disk 8017 by inserting it into the optical disk drive 8012. Alternatively, the program can also be sent to the computer 801 via a network (not shown) and stored in the hard disk 8017. The program is loaded into the RAM 8016 when it is executed. The program can also be directly loaded from the optical disk 8101 or the network.

[0206] The program may not necessarily include an operating system (OS) or a third-party program that enables the computer 801 to execute the functions of the information processing device of the above-mentioned embodiment. As long as the program calls appropriate functions (modules) in a controlled form and only includes the command part that can obtain the desired result, it will be sufficient. How the computer system 800 works is well known, and a detailed description is omitted.

[0207] Furthermore, in the above-mentioned program, the sending step of sending information or the receiving step of receiving information does not include processing performed by hardware, such as processing performed by a modem or an interface card in the sending step (processing that can only be performed by hardware).

[0208] In addition, the computer that executes the above program may be a single computer or multiple computers, that is, centralized processing or distributed processing may be performed.

[0209] Furthermore, in the above-described embodiments, two or more components present in one device may be physically realized by one medium.

[0210] In addition, in the above-mentioned embodiment, each processing (each function) can be implemented by a single device (system) through centralized processing, or can be implemented by multiple devices through distributed processing (in this case, the system composed of multiple devices performing distributed processing can be grasped as a whole as one "device").

[0211] In addition, in the above-mentioned embodiment, the handover of information between the constituent elements, for example, when the two constituent elements that perform the handover of the information are physically different, can be performed by the output of information from one constituent element and the acceptance of information from the other constituent element, or when the two constituent elements that perform the handover of the information are physically the same, it can also be performed by transferring from the processing phase corresponding to one constituent element to the processing phase corresponding to the other constituent element.

[0212] In addition, in the above-mentioned embodiment, even if it is not clearly described in the above description, information related to the processing performed by each component may be temporarily or long-term stored in a storage medium not shown in the figure, such as information accepted, acquired, selected, generated, sent, received by each component and information such as thresholds, formulas, addresses, etc. used by each component in the processing. In addition, each component or an accumulation unit not shown in the figure may also accumulate information in the storage medium not shown in the figure. In addition, each component or a reading unit not shown in the figure may also read information from the storage medium not shown in the figure.

[0213] In addition, in the above-mentioned embodiment, when the information used in each component, such as the threshold value or address, various setting values, etc. used in the processing of each component can be changed by the user, even if it is not clearly stated in the above description, the user can appropriately change this information, or may not change it. When the user can change this information, the change can be achieved, for example, by an unillustrated receiving unit that accepts a change instruction from the user and an unillustrated changing unit that changes the information according to the change instruction. The acceptance of the change instruction by the unillustrated receiving unit can be, for example, acceptance from an input device, or reception of information sent via a communication line, or acceptance of information read from a specified storage medium. In addition, in the processing and sequence shown in the above-mentioned flowchart, various deformations such as addition, deletion, deformation, and sequence change of steps can also be performed.

[0214] The present invention is not limited to the above-mentioned embodiments, but various modifications can be made, and the contents of the modifications are also included in the scope of the present invention. In addition, some components or functions in the above-mentioned embodiments may be omitted. Industrial Applicability

[0215] As described above, the information processing device according to the present invention has an effect of being able to acquire information on the future water balance circulation state of the target area, and is useful as an information processing device or the like.

Claims

1. An information processing device, characterized in that: The device comprises: a monitoring information acquisition unit for acquiring monitoring information related to environmental factors related to the circulation state of water resources in a target area; a determination unit that determines whether a predetermined condition related to a change in the monitoring information acquired by the monitoring information acquisition unit is satisfied; an element value acquisition unit, which acquires a future predicted value, i.e., a future element value, of the environmental element related to a change in the monitoring information when it is determined that the predetermined condition is satisfied; a calculation unit that obtains a water balance calculation value related to the balance of water resources in the target area based on the future element value; and an output unit that outputs information on a future circulation state of water resources in the target area based on the water balance calculation value.

2. The information processing device according to claim 1, characterized in that: The monitoring information is related to two or more environmental factors. When it is determined that the predetermined condition is satisfied, the element value acquisition unit specifies the environmental element related to the change in the monitoring information among the two or more environmental elements, and acquires the future element value for the specified environmental element.

3. The information processing device according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation unit obtains the water balance calculation value using a distributed water circulation model that models the circulation state of water resources in the target area, and the distributed water circulation model is composed of multiple grids formed by applying values ​​related to more than two environmental factors and dividing the target area in a grid shape.

4. The information processing device according to claim 1, characterized in that: The element value acquisition unit further acquires information indicating uncertainty of the future element value. The calculation unit further obtains information on the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value based on the future element value and the information indicating the uncertainty thereof. The output unit performs the output based on the water balance calculated value and information indicating the uncertainty thereof.

5. The information processing device according to claim 4, characterized in that: The element value acquisition unit acquires the future element value and information indicating the uncertainty thereof for each of the two or more environmental elements. The calculation unit obtains primary information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value for each of the environmental factors based on the information representing the uncertainty of the future factor value of each of the environmental factors, and simultaneously synthesizes, i.e., averages, the primary information obtained for two or more of the environmental factors to obtain information related to the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value.

6. The information processing device according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation unit is configured to obtain the water balance calculation value based on values ​​related to two or more of the environmental factors. The method comprises an extraction unit for causing the calculation unit to obtain the water balance calculation value by changing the value of each of the environmental factors, thereby performing a sensitivity analysis on the influence of each of the environmental factors on the water balance calculation value in the target area, and extracting the environmental factors that have a greater influence on the water balance calculation value as the predetermined condition is satisfied, The monitoring information acquisition unit is configured to acquire the monitoring information related to the environmental element extracted by the extraction unit.

7. An information processing method, characterized in that: The method comprises: an acquisition step of acquiring monitoring information related to environmental factors regarding the circulation status of water resources in the target area; A determination step of whether a specified condition related to a change in the monitoring information is satisfied; An element value acquisition step, when it is determined that the specified condition has been satisfied, acquiring a future predicted value of the environmental element related to the change of the monitoring information, that is, a future element value; and a calculation step of obtaining a water balance calculation value related to the balance of water resources in the target area based on the future element value, It is adopted to evaluate the risks related to water resources in the target area or to conduct research related to the implementation of preventive measures for the surface of the risks.

8. The information processing method according to claim 7, characterized in that: In the element value acquisition step, information indicating the uncertainty of the future element value is also acquired. In the calculation step, information on the uncertainty of the water balance calculation value is also obtained based on the future element value and the information indicating the uncertainty thereof. The method further includes a comparing step of comparing the calculated water balance value with a predetermined threshold value based on information on uncertainty of the calculated water balance value.

9. A program, characterized in that it causes a computer to function as a monitoring information acquisition unit, a determination unit, an element value acquisition unit, a calculation unit, and an output unit, The monitoring information acquisition unit acquires monitoring information related to environmental factors related to the circulation state of water resources in the target area. The determination unit determines whether a predetermined condition related to a change in the monitoring information acquired by the monitoring information acquisition unit is satisfied. When it is determined that the predetermined condition is satisfied, the element value acquisition unit acquires a future predicted value of the environmental element related to the change in the monitoring information, that is, a future element value. The calculation unit obtains a water balance calculation value related to the balance of water resources in the target area based on the future element value. The output unit outputs information on a future circulation state of water resources in the target area based on the water balance calculation value.

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