Tailing pond instability dam break quantitative judgment method and device, terminal and storage medium

Abstract

The invention provides a quantitative judgment method and device for tailing pond instability dam break, a terminal and a storage medium. The method comprises the following steps: establishing an initial finite element model of the tailing pond by utilizing an initial geometrical shape and tailing material parameters of a target tailing pond; updating the tailing pond initial finite element model by utilizing the action effect of the target tailing pond to obtain a first tailing pond finite element model; adjusting the elastic modulus of the first tailings pond finite element model to obtain a target elastic modulus; adjusting the cohesive force and the friction angle of the updated first tailings pond finite element model to obtain a target cohesive force and a target friction angle; the first tailings pond finite element model is updated through the target elastic modulus, the target cohesive force and the target friction angle, a target tailings pond finite element model is obtained, and the safety coefficient and the plastic through area of the target tailings pond are obtained through a stability analysis method and the target tailings pond finite element model. According to the method, the safety coefficient of the tailings pond and the judgment accuracy of the potential dam break range can be improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of tailings pond safety monitoring, and in particular to a quantitative evaluation method, device, terminal and storage medium for the instability and dam break of a tailings pond. Background Art

[0002] Tailings ponds are a major source of danger. Safety monitoring of tailings ponds is an important method to ensure the safe operation of tailings ponds. Through the safety warning of the monitoring system, precious time can be provided for the safe evacuation of people and property downstream. Therefore, establishing reasonable warning conditions for tailings ponds through monitoring is the key to safety warning.

[0003] Displacement monitoring is an important monitoring content in tailings pond monitoring. Unlike ordinary slopes, the displacement of tailings ponds is affected by the heightening of the dam body and the change of the dry beach length during operation. The heightening of the dam body often leads to a large displacement, which leads to the phenomenon that the displacement monitoring value continues to increase. In ordinary slope monitoring, the continuous increase in displacement is often a precursor to slope instability. Therefore, the continuous increase in displacement can be used to judge the stability of the slope. In the tailings pond, the continuous increase in displacement may be the deformation caused by the increase in gravity and the consolidation of tailings during the heightening of the tailings pond. It is a continuous deformation under normal conditions and is not necessarily a precursor to the instability of the tailings pond. Therefore, unlike ordinary slopes and other buildings, the continuous increase in the displacement of the tailings pond cannot judge the safety of the tailings pond. Therefore, it is necessary to propose a new discrimination method to realize the safety of the tailings pond by monitoring the displacement to ensure the safety of the tailings pond.

[0004] At present, all tailings ponds have established online monitoring systems, and the system platforms have established digital models and displacement monitoring modules of the tailings ponds. However, there is currently no good method to fully utilize the digital models and displacement monitoring data in the online monitoring systems to quantitatively determine the safety factor and potential dam failure range of the tailings ponds.

[0005] With the development of computers and the Internet of Things, digital twin technology will be applied to tailings dam monitoring. Judging the safety of tailings dams based on the combination of digital model calculation and monitoring is the development trend of tailings dam safety monitoring in the future. Therefore, developing methods that can be applied to digital twin technology to quantitatively evaluate the safety of tailings dams and the scope of potential dam failure is of great significance to promoting the comprehensive application of numerical twins in tailings dams, but the technology is not yet mature. Summary of the invention

[0006] The present application provides a method, device, terminal and storage medium for quantitatively judging the instability and dam break of a tailings pond, so as to solve the problem of inaccurate safety assessment of tailings ponds in the prior art.

[0007] In the first aspect, the present application provides a quantitative evaluation method for the instability and dam failure of a tailings dam, comprising:

[0008] Establishing an initial finite element model of the tailings pond using the initial geometric shape and tailings material parameters of the target tailings pond, wherein the geometric shape includes the total volume and shape, and the tailings material parameters include the elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle;

[0009] Using the effect of the target tailings pond in the target monitoring period to update the initial finite element model of the tailings pond, and using the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond as the first tailings pond finite element model;

[0010] Adjusting the elastic modulus of the first tailings pond finite element model so that the total volume of the simulated geometric form of the first tailings pond finite element model is equal to the total volume of the measured geometric form, and taking the elastic modulus when the total volumes are equal as the target elastic modulus, the measured geometric form being the measured geometric form of the target tailings pond during the target monitoring period;

[0011] Adjusting the cohesion and friction angle of the updated first tailings pond finite element model so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape, and taking the cohesion when the shapes coincide as the target cohesion, and taking the friction angle when the shapes coincide as the target friction angle;

[0012] The target elastic modulus, the target cohesion and the target friction angle are used to update the elastic modulus, the cohesion and the friction angle of the first tailings pond finite element model respectively to obtain the target tailings pond finite element model, and the target tailings pond finite element model is analyzed by a stability analysis method to obtain the safety factor of the target tailings pond under the measured geometric shape and the corresponding plastic penetration area.

[0013] In a second aspect, the present application provides a quantitative evaluation device for instability and dam failure of a tailings dam, comprising:

[0014] An initial model building module is used to build an initial finite element model of the tailings pond using the initial geometric shape and tailings material parameters of the target tailings pond, wherein the geometric shape includes the total volume and shape, and the tailings material parameters include elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle;

[0015] A first model building module is used to update the initial finite element model of the tailings pond using the effect of the target tailings pond in the target monitoring period, and use the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond as the first tailings pond finite element model;

[0016] A first adjustment module is used to adjust the elastic modulus of the first tailings pond finite element model so that the total volume of the simulated geometric form of the first tailings pond finite element model is equal to the total volume of the measured geometric form, and the elastic modulus when the total volume is equal is used as the target elastic modulus, and the measured geometric form is the measured geometric form of the target tailings pond within the target monitoring period;

[0017] A second adjustment module is used to adjust the cohesion and friction angle of the updated first tailings pond finite element model so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape, and the cohesion when the shapes coincide is used as the target cohesion, and the friction angle when the shapes coincide is used as the target friction angle;

[0018] A determination module is used to update the elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle of the first tailings pond finite element model using the target elastic modulus, the target cohesion and the target friction angle respectively to obtain a target tailings pond finite element model, and to analyze the target tailings pond finite element model using a stability analysis method to obtain the safety factor of the target tailings pond under the measured geometric shape and the corresponding plastic penetration area.

[0019] In a third aspect, the present application provides a terminal comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the method described in the first aspect or any possible implementation of the first aspect are implemented.

[0020] In a fourth aspect, the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores a computer program. When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the method described in the first aspect or any possible implementation of the first aspect.

[0021] The present application provides a quantitative judgment method, device, terminal and storage medium for instability and dam breach of a tailings pond. The method includes establishing an initial finite element model of the tailings pond by using the initial geometric shape and tailings material parameters of a target tailings pond; updating the initial finite element model of the tailings pond by using the effect of the target tailings pond in a target monitoring period, and using the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond as a first finite element model of the tailings pond; adjusting the elastic modulus of the first finite element model of the tailings pond so that the total volume of the simulated geometric shape of the finite element model of the first tailings pond is equal to the total volume of the measured geometric shape, and using the elastic modulus when the total volume is equal as the target elastic modulus, and the measured geometric shape is the target tailings pond in the target monitoring period. the actual measured geometric shape during the period; adjusting the cohesion and friction angle of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond to make the simulated geometric shape of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond coincide with the shape of the measured geometric shape, and taking the cohesion when the shapes coincide as the target cohesion, and taking the friction angle when the shapes coincide as the target friction angle; updating the elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle of the finite element model of the first tailings pond using the target elastic modulus, target cohesion and target friction angle respectively to obtain the finite element model of the target tailings pond, and analyzing the finite element model of the target tailings pond using the stability analysis method to obtain the safety factor of the target tailings pond under the measured geometric shape and the corresponding plastic penetration area. The present application gradually adjusts the elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle of the finite element model of the tailings pond to make its simulated geometry highly matched with the measured geometry, so that the model can truly reflect the physical behavior of the tailings pond under specific action effects, and determine the safety factor and potential dam break range of the target tailings pond based on the measured geometry of the target tailings pond, thereby improving the accuracy of the assessment of the dam break risk of the tailings pond; at the same time, the present application uses the stability analysis method to analyze the finite element model of the target tailings pond, and can accurately calculate the safety factor and plastic penetration area of ​​the tailings pond, providing a reliable basis for the safety management and maintenance of the tailings pond. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0022] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative labor.

[0023] Figure 1 It is a flow chart for implementing a quantitative evaluation method for tailings pond instability and dam break provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0024] Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of the initial geometric form provided in the embodiment of the present application;

[0025] Figure 3is a schematic diagram comparing the simulated geometric shape and the measured geometric shape after the target monitoring period provided in the embodiment of the present application;

[0026] Figure 4 is a schematic diagram comparing the simulated geometric shape and the measured geometric shape after adjusting the elastic modulus provided in the embodiment of the present application;

[0027] Figure 5 is a schematic diagram of the sliding plastic displacement distribution area provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0028] Figure 6 is a distribution diagram of the plastic penetration area provided in the embodiment of the present application;

[0029] Figure 7 It is a schematic structural diagram of a quantitative evaluation device for tailings pond instability and dam break provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0030] Figure 8 It is a schematic diagram of a terminal provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0031] In the following description, specific details such as specific system structures, technologies, etc. are provided for the purpose of illustration rather than limitation, so as to provide a thorough understanding of the embodiments of the present application. However, it should be clear to those skilled in the art that the present application may also be implemented in other embodiments without these specific details. In other cases, detailed descriptions of well-known systems, devices, circuits, and methods are omitted to prevent unnecessary details from obstructing the description of the present application.

[0032] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the present application clearer, specific embodiments will be described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0033] At present, although all tailings ponds have established online monitoring systems and the system platforms have established digital models and displacement monitoring modules for the tailings ponds, there is currently no good method for making full use of the digital models and displacement monitoring data in the online monitoring systems to quantitatively determine the safety factor and potential dam failure range of the tailings ponds.

[0034] Moreover, with the development of computers and the Internet of Things, digital twin technology has begun to be applied in tailings ponds. However, there is currently no reasonable technology and algorithm for making full use of the digital model of the tailings pond in the digital twin technology and the perception technology of the displacement and deformation of the tailings pond to quantitatively evaluate the safety of the tailings pond.

[0035] Based on the above problems, the present application provides a quantitative evaluation method for tailings dam instability and dam break based on the combination of tailings dam digital model calculation and displacement monitoring, aiming to solve the key technical problem of the lack of "a method for quantitatively evaluating the safety factor and potential dam break range of the tailings dam corresponding to a certain monitoring displacement" in the tailings dam online monitoring system or digital twin platform.

[0036] The specific design principles of the quantitative evaluation method for tailings dam instability and dam break are as follows:

[0037] (1) Before the tailings pond undergoes sliding failure, local damage often occurs first in the dam body. The tailings material in this area is destroyed, thus producing a plastic zone. As the plastic zone expands, plastic sliding displacement is induced in the tailings pond. Plastic sliding displacement is a precursor to the collapse of the tailings pond. It can be seen that the potential damage zone of the tailings pond can be determined by plastic sliding displacement.

[0038] (2) In the deformation of the tailings pond under the effects of dry spreading length, dam heightening, etc., the plastic sliding displacement is a key parameter for determining the safety of the tailings pond. This type of deformation often causes local changes in the shape of the tailings pond dam surface, but has little effect on the total volume of the tailings pond. Therefore, according to the shape of the tailings pond determined by monitoring, the volume of the tailings after deformation is determined, and the shape of the tailings pond after deformation is calculated by adjusting the elastic parameters of the tailings material using elastic finite elements so that the calculated volume of the tailings pond is the same as the volume of the detected tailings pond. Then, the calculated shape of the tailings pond is compared with the shape of the tailings pond determined by monitoring, and the plastic sliding displacement and distribution area of ​​the tailings pond can be determined.

[0039] (3) Analyze the distribution pattern of plastic displacement zones and preliminarily identify the potential sliding areas of the tailings pond.

[0040] (4) If sliding plastic displacement occurs in a local area, an elastic-plastic finite element model is established, and the strength reduction method is used to determine the strength parameters of the tailings sand corresponding to the plastic displacement. Then, the safety factor and potential sliding range of the tailings pond under the strength parameters are calculated, and the relationship between the monitoring displacement and the safety factor is established. The safety factor of the tailings pond is judged by the displacement, and the potential sliding range of the tailings pond is determined. The early warning conditions of the tailings pond are given according to the safety factor.

[0041] Correspondingly, this application establishes the relationship between the displacement monitoring data of the tailings pond and the safety factor of the tailings pond, and can quantitatively judge the safety factor of the tailings pond and the potential dam break range by monitoring the displacement. Moreover, this application can be applied to the online monitoring system of the tailings pond and the digital twin technology of tailings. By embedding the technology of this application into the online monitoring system and the digital twin model of the tailings pond, the safety factor of the tailings pond and the potential dam break range can be determined to effectively evaluate the safety of the tailings pond. At the same time, this application can also be used for the safety early warning of the entire tailings pond (three-dimensional), and can also be used for the safety early warning of the typical longitudinal section of the tailings pond (two-dimensional).

[0042] Figure 1 The implementation flow chart of the quantitative evaluation method for the instability and dam-breaking of the tailings pond provided in the embodiment of the present application is described in detail as follows:

[0043] In step 101, an initial finite element model of the tailings pond is established using the initial geometric shape and tailings material parameters of the target tailings pond, wherein the geometric shape includes the total volume and shape, and the tailings material parameters include elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle.

[0044] In the embodiment of the present application, the initial geometry and tailings pond parameters of the target tailings pond are obtained, wherein the geometry includes the total volume and shape, and the tailings material parameters include elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle. Then, the initial finite element model of the tailings pond is established using the initial geometry and tailings parameters of the target tailings pond.

[0045] In a possible implementation, using the initial geometry of the target tailings pond and the tailings material parameters, an initial finite element model of the tailings pond is established, which may include:

[0046] Use 3D laser scanning or drone photography to obtain the initial geometry of the target tailings pond;

[0047] Use geological survey data to obtain tailings material parameters in the target tailings pond;

[0048] The initial finite element model of the tailings pond is established using the initial geometric shape of the target tailings pond and the tailings material parameters.

[0049] Optionally, according to the digital twin system of the target tailings pond, when the displacement monitoring of the target tailings pond begins, the initial geometric shape of the target tailings pond at this time is determined by using three-dimensional laser scanning or unmanned photography in the digital twin system. Figure 2 , including the initial geometry of the target tailings pond and the infiltration line.

[0050] Then, based on the geological survey data, the tailings material parameters in the target tailings pond are determined, including but not limited to the bulk density, elastic modulus, Poisson's ratio, cohesion, friction angle, permeability coefficient and the dry spread length of the tailings pond at this time.

[0051] Finally, the initial finite element model of the target tailings pond is established using the initial geometric shape and tailings material parameters of the target tailings pond.

[0052] In step 102, the initial finite element model of the tailings pond is updated using the effect of the target tailings pond within the target monitoring period, and the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond is used as the first finite element model of the tailings pond.

[0053] In an embodiment of the present application, the effects of the target tailings pond within the target monitoring period are obtained, such as changes in the dry spread length and heightening of the tailings pond caused by heavy rain, and the effects of the target tailings pond within the target monitoring period are obtained. Then, the initial finite element model of the tailings pond is updated using the effects to obtain a first finite element model of the tailings pond.

[0054] In a possible implementation, the initial finite element model of the tailings pond is updated by using the effect of the target tailings pond in the target monitoring period, and the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond is used as the first tailings pond finite element model, which may include:

[0055] Obtain the effects of the target tailings pond within the target monitoring period, including changes in dry-spread length and dam height;

[0056] Update the initial finite element model of the tailings pond using the action effects;

[0057] The cohesion of the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond is enlarged by a target multiple, and the tangent value of the friction angle of the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond is enlarged by a target multiple to obtain a first tailings pond finite element model.

[0058] Optionally, the initial finite element model of the tailings pond is used to simulate the effect, and the perception module in the digital twin system is used to record the effect of the target tailings pond in real time during the target monitoring period. The effect may include the change in the dry spread length of the tailings pond and the change in the height of the dam body. Then, the initial finite element model of the tailings pond is updated using the effect.

[0059] For example, if the effect is that heavy rain causes the dry spread length of the target tailings pond to change to ΔL and the dam body to be raised by ΔH, then if the effect is that heavy rain causes the change in the dry spread length, the dry spread length in the initial finite element model of the tailings pond is changed to (L+ΔL); if the effect is that heavy rain causes the dam body to be raised, then the initial finite element model of the tailings pond simulates the dam body heightening by ΔH, that is, the dam body height is (H+ΔH).

[0060] For specific dry-spread length and dam height change, refer to Figure 3 As shown, after the target monitoring period, there are differences in height and length between the initial geometry of the target tailings pond and the tailings pond profile monitored in real time.

[0061] Finally, the cohesion of the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond is enlarged by a target multiple, and the tangent value of the friction angle of the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond is also enlarged by a target multiple, so as to obtain the first tailings pond finite element model.

[0062] Exemplarily, if the target multiple is 1000, the cohesion of the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond is increased by 1000 times, and the tangent value of the friction angle of the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond is increased by 1000 times to ensure that the displacement calculated by the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond based on the action effect does not show plastic displacement.

[0063] In step 103, the elastic modulus of the finite element model of the first tailings pond is adjusted so that the total volume of the simulated geometric shape of the finite element model of the first tailings pond is equal to the total volume of the measured geometric shape, and the elastic modulus when the total volume is equal is used as the target elastic modulus, and the measured geometric shape is the measured geometric shape of the target tailings pond within the target monitoring period.

[0064] In an embodiment of the present application, after the tangent value of the friction angle and the cohesion of the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond are enlarged by the target multiples, the elastic modulus of the first tailings pond finite element model is adjusted, and the corresponding first tailings pond finite element model is used to obtain the simulated geometric form in the process of continuous adjustment, so that the total volume of the simulated geometric form of the first tailings pond finite element model and the measured geometric form of the target tailings pond after the target monitoring period is equal, and the elastic modulus at this time is recorded, and the elastic modulus at this time is used as the target elastic modulus. Among them, the measured geometric form of the target tailings pond is the measured geometric form of the target tailings within the target monitoring period.

[0065] After adjusting the elastic modulus, the updated simulation geometry of the first tailings pond finite element model is referenced Figure 4 shown.

[0066] In a possible implementation, after adjusting the elastic modulus of the first tailings pond finite element model so that the total volume of the simulated geometric form of the first tailings pond finite element model is equal to the total volume of the measured geometric form, and taking the elastic modulus when the total volumes are equal as the target elastic modulus, the method may further include:

[0067] Determining whether the shape of the simulated geometric form of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincides with the shape of the measured geometric form;

[0068] If the shape of the simulated geometric form of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond coincides with the shape of the measured geometric form, the target tailings pond is determined to be safe;

[0069] If the shape of the simulated geometric form of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond does not coincide with the shape of the measured geometric form, it is determined that sliding plastic displacement occurs in the target tailings pond;

[0070] Accordingly, adjusting the cohesion and friction angle of the updated first tailings pond finite element model so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape may include:

[0071] After determining that the target tailings pond has undergone sliding plastic displacement, the cohesion and friction angle of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond are adjusted so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape.

[0072] Optionally, after adjusting the elastic modulus of the finite element model of the first tailings pond, it is necessary to compare the simulated geometry of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond with the measured geometry of the target tailings pond to determine whether plastic sliding displacement occurs in the target tailings pond.

[0073] If the simulated geometry of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond coincides with the measured geometry of the target tailings pond, it is determined that the displacements of the target tailings pond are all elastic displacements and no plastic sliding displacements occur, which means that the target tailings pond is safe.

[0074] If the simulated geometry of the updated first tailings pond finite element model does not coincide with the measured geometry of the target tailings pond, Figure 5 As shown, local areas of the tailings dam surface are located above the dam surface of the updated simulated geometric shape of the first tailings pond, and local areas are located below the dam surface of the updated simulated geometric shape of the first tailings pond, indicating that sliding plastic displacement has occurred in the target tailings pond and there is a safety risk. At this time, the area where the plastic sliding displacement is concentrated is the potential sliding area of ​​the target tailings pond, from which the sliding range of the dam surface of the target tailings pond can be preliminarily determined, but it is still necessary to further judge the internal sliding area of ​​the target tailings pond and the safety of the target tailings pond, that is, to adjust the cohesion and friction angle of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape.

[0075] In a possible implementation, after determining whether the shape of the simulated geometric form of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincides with the shape of the measured geometric form, the method may further include:

[0076] If it is determined that the target tailings pond is safe, the display device will prompt that the current target tailings pond is safe.

[0077] If it is determined that sliding plastic displacement occurs in the target tailings pond, a display device will be used to indicate that there is a safety risk in the current target tailings pond.

[0078] In step 104, the cohesion and friction angle of the updated first tailings pond finite element model are adjusted so that the simulated geometric shape and the measured geometric shape of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincide with each other, and the cohesion when the shapes coincide is used as the target cohesion, and the friction angle when the shapes coincide is used as the target friction angle.

[0079] In an embodiment of the present application, after determining that the target tailings pond has plastic sliding displacement, the cohesion and friction angle of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond are adjusted, and the corresponding updated finite element model of the first tailings pond is used to obtain the simulated geometric shape during the continuous adjustment process, so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated first tailings pond finite element model and the measured geometric shape of the target tailings pond coincide with each other, that is, the plastic sliding displacement of the target tailings pond in the simulated geometric shape and the measured geometric shape is the same, the corresponding cohesion and friction angle at this time are recorded, and the corresponding cohesion at this time is used as the target cohesion, and the corresponding friction angle at this time is used as the target friction angle.

[0080] In a possible implementation, adjusting the cohesion and friction angle of the updated first tailings pond finite element model so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape may include:

[0081] The strength reduction method is used to adjust the cohesion and friction angle of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape.

[0082] Optionally, the embodiment of the present application adopts the strength reduction method to continuously adjust the cohesion and friction angle of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated finite element of the first tailings pond coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape of the target tailings pond.

[0083] In step 105, the elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle of the first tailings pond finite element model are updated using the target elastic modulus, target cohesion and target friction angle respectively to obtain the target tailings pond finite element model, and the target tailings pond finite element model is analyzed using a stability analysis method to obtain the safety factor of the target tailings pond under the measured geometric shape and the corresponding plastic penetration area.

[0084] In an embodiment of the present application, the target elastic modulus obtained in step 103 is used to update the elastic modulus of the initial finite element model of the tailings pond, the target cohesion obtained in step 104 is used to update the cohesion of the first tailings pond finite element model, and the target friction angle obtained in step 104 is used to update the friction angle of the first tailings pond finite element model, and the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond is used as the target tailings pond finite element model.

[0085] Then, the finite element model of the target tailings reservoir is analyzed using the stability analysis method to determine the safety factor of the target tailings reservoir under the measured geometric form and the plastic penetration area corresponding to the safety factor. Figure 6 shown.

[0086] Among them, the stability analysis method may include but is not limited to the strength reduction method and the limit equilibrium method, and the limit equilibrium method may also include the simplified Bishop method and the Swedish arc method.

[0087] In a possible implementation, after obtaining the safety factor of the target tailings pond and the corresponding plastic breakthrough area, the method may further include:

[0088] Determine the safety level of the target tailings pond according to the safety factor of the target tailings pond;

[0089] Based on the plastic breakthrough area, the potential sliding area when the target tailings pond fails within the current monitoring period is determined.

[0090] Optionally, the embodiment of the present application can use the safety factor of the target tailings pond to quantitatively evaluate the safety of the target tailings pond after a certain displacement deformation during the monitoring period. The plastic penetration area can also be used to determine the potential sliding area when the target tailings pond breaks during the monitoring period.

[0091] The embodiments of the present application solve the problem that it is difficult to achieve tailings pond safety warning based on tailings pond displacement monitoring data, which not only improves the technological progress in this field, but also improves the prediction effect of the safety level of tailings ponds.

[0092] After the target monitoring cycle is completed, the embodiment of the present application uses the target tailings pond finite element model obtained in the target monitoring cycle as the initial finite element model of the tailings pond for the next monitoring cycle, and updates the corresponding initial geometric shape with tailings material parameters. The execution is repeated to obtain the safety factor of the target tailings pond in different monitoring cycles and the corresponding plastic penetration area.

[0093] In a possible implementation, after obtaining the safety factor of the target tailings pond under the applied effect and the corresponding plastic penetration area, the method may further include:

[0094] The safety factor of the target tailings pond during the current monitoring period and the corresponding plastic breakthrough area are displayed through the display device for use by the staff.

[0095] The present application provides a quantitative judgment method for instability and dam breach of a tailings pond, which establishes an initial finite element model of the tailings pond by using the initial geometric shape and tailings material parameters of a target tailings pond; updates the initial finite element model of the tailings pond by using the effect of the target tailings pond in a target monitoring period, and uses the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond as a first finite element model of the tailings pond; adjusts the elastic modulus of the first tailings pond finite element model so that the total volume of the simulated geometric shape of the first tailings pond finite element model is equal to the total volume of the measured geometric shape, and uses the elastic modulus when the total volumes are equal as the target elastic modulus, and the measured geometric shape is the measured geometric shape of the target tailings pond in the target monitoring period. geometric shape; adjusting the cohesion and friction angle of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape, and taking the cohesion when the shapes coincide as the target cohesion, and taking the friction angle when the shapes coincide as the target friction angle; updating the elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle of the finite element model of the first tailings pond using the target elastic modulus, target cohesion and target friction angle respectively to obtain the finite element model of the target tailings pond, and analyzing the finite element model of the target tailings pond using the stability analysis method to obtain the safety factor of the target tailings pond under the measured geometric shape and the corresponding plastic penetration area. The present application gradually adjusts the elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle of the finite element model of the tailings pond to make its simulated geometry highly matched with the measured geometry, so that the model can truly reflect the physical behavior of the tailings pond under specific action effects, and determine the safety factor and potential dam break range of the target tailings pond based on the measured geometry of the target tailings pond, thereby improving the accuracy of the assessment of the dam break risk of the tailings pond; at the same time, the present application uses the stability analysis method to analyze the finite element model of the target tailings pond, and can accurately calculate the safety factor and plastic penetration area of ​​the tailings pond, providing a reliable basis for the safety management and maintenance of the tailings pond.

[0096] It should be understood that the size of the serial numbers of the steps in the above embodiments does not mean the order of execution. The execution order of each process should be determined by its function and internal logic, and should not constitute any limitation on the implementation process of the embodiments of the present application.

[0097] The following is an embodiment of the device of the present application. For details not described in detail, please refer to the corresponding method embodiment described above.

[0098] Figure 7 The schematic diagram of the structure of the quantitative evaluation device for the instability and dam-breaking of the tailings dam provided in the embodiment of the present application is shown. For the convenience of explanation, only the part related to the embodiment of the present application is shown, which is described in detail as follows:

[0099] like Figure 7 As shown, the quantitative evaluation device 7 for the instability and dam-breaking of the tailings pond includes:

[0100] An initial model building module 71 is used to build an initial finite element model of the tailings pond using the initial geometric shape and tailings material parameters of the target tailings pond, wherein the geometric shape includes the total volume and shape, and the tailings material parameters include elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle;

[0101] A first model building module 72 is used to update the initial finite element model of the tailings pond using the effect of the target tailings pond in the target monitoring period, and use the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond as the first tailings pond finite element model;

[0102] A first adjustment module 73 is used to adjust the elastic modulus of the first tailings pond finite element model so that the total volume of the simulated geometric form of the first tailings pond finite element model is equal to the total volume of the measured geometric form, and the elastic modulus when the total volume is equal is used as the target elastic modulus, and the measured geometric form is the measured geometric form of the target tailings pond within the target monitoring period;

[0103] The second adjustment module 74 is used to adjust the cohesion and friction angle of the updated first tailings pond finite element model so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincides with the measured geometric shape, and the cohesion when the shapes coincide is used as the target cohesion, and the friction angle when the shapes coincide is used as the target friction angle;

[0104] Determination module 75 is used to update the elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle of the first tailings pond finite element model using the target elastic modulus, target cohesion and target friction angle respectively to obtain the target tailings pond finite element model, and analyze the target tailings pond finite element model using the stability analysis method to obtain the safety factor of the target tailings pond under the measured geometric shape and the corresponding plastic penetration area.

[0105] The present application provides a quantitative evaluation device for instability and dam breach of a tailings pond, which establishes an initial finite element model of the tailings pond by using the initial geometric shape and tailings material parameters of a target tailings pond; updates the initial finite element model of the tailings pond by using the effect of the target tailings pond in a target monitoring period, and uses the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond as a first finite element model of the tailings pond; adjusts the elastic modulus of the first tailings pond finite element model so that the total volume of the simulated geometric shape of the first tailings pond finite element model is equal to the total volume of the measured geometric shape, and uses the elastic modulus when the total volumes are equal as the target elastic modulus, and the measured geometric shape is the measured geometric shape of the target tailings pond in the target monitoring period. geometric shape; adjusting the cohesion and friction angle of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape, and taking the cohesion when the shapes coincide as the target cohesion, and taking the friction angle when the shapes coincide as the target friction angle; updating the elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle of the finite element model of the first tailings pond using the target elastic modulus, target cohesion and target friction angle respectively to obtain the finite element model of the target tailings pond, and analyzing the finite element model of the target tailings pond using the stability analysis method to obtain the safety factor of the target tailings pond under the measured geometric shape and the corresponding plastic penetration area. The present application gradually adjusts the elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle of the finite element model of the tailings pond to make its simulated geometry highly matched with the measured geometry, so that the model can truly reflect the physical behavior of the tailings pond under specific action effects, and determine the safety factor and potential dam break range of the target tailings pond based on the measured geometry of the target tailings pond, thereby improving the accuracy of the assessment of the dam break risk of the tailings pond; at the same time, the present application uses the stability analysis method to analyze the finite element model of the target tailings pond, and can accurately calculate the safety factor and plastic penetration area of ​​the tailings pond, providing a reliable basis for the safety management and maintenance of the tailings pond.

[0106] In a possible implementation, the first model building module may be used to:

[0107] Obtain the effects of the target tailings pond within the target monitoring period, including changes in dry-spread length and dam height;

[0108] Update the initial finite element model of the tailings pond using the action effects;

[0109] The cohesion of the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond is enlarged by a target multiple, and the tangent value of the friction angle of the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond is enlarged by a target multiple to obtain a first tailings pond finite element model.

[0110] In a possible implementation, the device may further include a judgment module, which may be specifically used to:

[0111] Determining whether the shape of the simulated geometric form of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincides with the shape of the measured geometric form;

[0112] If the shape of the simulated geometric form of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond coincides with the shape of the measured geometric form, the target tailings pond is determined to be safe;

[0113] If the shape of the simulated geometric form of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond does not coincide with the shape of the measured geometric form, it is determined that sliding plastic displacement occurs in the target tailings pond;

[0114] Accordingly, the second adjustment module can be used to:

[0115] After determining that the target tailings pond has undergone sliding plastic displacement, the cohesion and friction angle of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond are adjusted so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape.

[0116] In a possible implementation, the second adjustment module may be specifically used to:

[0117] The strength reduction method is used to adjust the cohesion and friction angle of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape.

[0118] In a possible implementation, the stability analysis method may include a strength reduction method or a limit equilibrium method.

[0119] In a possible implementation, the device may further include an analysis module, which may be specifically used to:

[0120] Determine the safety level of the target tailings pond according to the safety factor of the target tailings pond;

[0121] Based on the plastic breakthrough area, the potential sliding area when the target tailings pond fails within the current monitoring period is determined.

[0122] In a possible implementation, the initial model building module may be specifically used for:

[0123] Use 3D laser scanning or drone photography to obtain the initial geometry of the target tailings pond;

[0124] Use geological survey data to obtain tailings material parameters in the target tailings pond;

[0125] The initial finite element model of the tailings pond is established using the initial geometric shape of the target tailings pond and the tailings material parameters.

[0126] Figure 8is a schematic diagram of a terminal provided in an embodiment of the present application. Figure 8 As shown, the terminal 8 of this embodiment includes: a processor 80, a memory 81, and a computer program 82 stored in the memory 81 and executable on the processor 80. When the processor 80 executes the computer program 82, the steps in the above-mentioned quantitative evaluation method for instability and dam-breaking of tailings dams are implemented, for example Figure 1 Alternatively, when the processor 80 executes the computer program 82, the functions of each module / unit in the above-mentioned device embodiments are realized, for example, Figure 7 The functions of each module are shown.

[0127] Exemplarily, the computer program 82 may be divided into one or more modules / units, which are stored in the memory 81 and executed by the processor 80 to complete the present application. The one or more modules / units may be a series of computer program instruction segments capable of completing specific functions, which are used to describe the execution process of the computer program 82 in the terminal 8. For example, the computer program 82 may be divided into Figure 7 The modules shown.

[0128] The terminal 8 may be a computing device such as a desktop computer, a notebook, a PDA, or a cloud server. The terminal 8 may include, but is not limited to, a processor 80 and a memory 81. Those skilled in the art will appreciate that Figure 8 It is only an example of terminal 8 and does not constitute a limitation on terminal 8. It may include more or fewer components than shown in the figure, or a combination of certain components, or different components. For example, the terminal may also include input and output devices, network access devices, buses, etc.

[0129] The processor 80 may be a central processing unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. A general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or any conventional processor, etc.

[0130] The memory 81 may be an internal storage unit of the terminal 8, such as a hard disk or memory of the terminal 8. The memory 81 may also be an external storage device of the terminal 8, such as a plug-in hard disk, a smart media card (SMC), a secure digital (SD) card, a flash card, etc. equipped on the terminal 8. Further, the memory 81 may also include both an internal storage unit of the terminal 8 and an external storage device. The memory 81 is used to store the computer program and other programs and data required by the terminal. The memory 81 may also be used to temporarily store data that has been output or is to be output.

[0131] The technicians in the relevant field can clearly understand that for the convenience and simplicity of description, only the division of the above-mentioned functional units and modules is used as an example for illustration. In practical applications, the above-mentioned function allocation can be completed by different functional units and modules as needed, that is, the internal structure of the device can be divided into different functional units or modules to complete all or part of the functions described above. The functional units and modules in the embodiment can be integrated in a processing unit, or each unit can exist physically separately, or two or more units can be integrated in one unit. The above-mentioned integrated unit can be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of software functional units. In addition, the specific names of the functional units and modules are only for the convenience of distinguishing each other, and are not used to limit the scope of protection of this application. The specific working process of the units and modules in the above-mentioned system can refer to the corresponding process in the aforementioned method embodiment, which will not be repeated here.

[0132] In the above embodiments, the description of each embodiment has its own emphasis. For parts that are not described or recorded in detail in a certain embodiment, reference can be made to the relevant descriptions of other embodiments.

[0133] Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the units and algorithm steps of each example described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented in electronic hardware, or a combination of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether these functions are performed in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Professional and technical personnel can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered to be beyond the scope of this application.

[0134] In the embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed devices / terminals and methods can be implemented in other ways. For example, the device / terminal embodiments described above are only schematic. For example, the division of the modules or units is only a logical function division. There may be other division methods in actual implementation, such as multiple units or components can be combined or integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored or not executed. Another point is that the mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed can be through some interfaces, indirect coupling or communication connection of devices or units, which can be electrical, mechanical or other forms.

[0135] The units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components shown as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place or distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the units may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.

[0136] In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present application may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may exist physically separately, or two or more units may be integrated into one unit. The above-mentioned integrated unit may be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of software functional units.

[0137] If the integrated module / unit is implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as an independent product, it can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the present application implements all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned embodiment method, and can also be completed by instructing the relevant hardware through a computer program. The computer program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed by the processor, the steps of the above-mentioned quantitative evaluation method embodiments of the instability and dam-breaking of each tailings pond can be implemented. Among them, the computer program includes computer program code, and the computer program code can be in source code form, object code form, executable file or some intermediate form. The computer-readable medium may include: any entity or device that can carry the computer program code, recording medium, U disk, mobile hard disk, disk, optical disk, computer memory, read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), electric carrier signal, telecommunication signal and software distribution medium, etc. It should be noted that the content contained in the computer-readable medium can be appropriately increased or decreased according to the requirements of legislation and patent practices in the jurisdiction. For example, in some jurisdictions, according to legislation and patent practices, computer-readable media does not include electrical carrier signals and telecommunication signals.

[0138] The embodiments described above are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, rather than to limit them. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, a person skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments may still be modified, or some of the technical features may be replaced by equivalents. Such modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, and should all be included in the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A quantitative evaluation method for the instability and dam break of a tailings pond, characterized in that: include: Establishing an initial finite element model of the tailings pond using the initial geometric shape and tailings material parameters of the target tailings pond, wherein the geometric shape includes the total volume and shape, and the tailings material parameters include the elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle; Using the effect of the target tailings pond in the target monitoring period to update the initial finite element model of the tailings pond, and using the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond as the first tailings pond finite element model; Adjusting the elastic modulus of the first tailings pond finite element model so that the total volume of the simulated geometric form of the first tailings pond finite element model is equal to the total volume of the measured geometric form, and taking the elastic modulus when the total volumes are equal as the target elastic modulus, the measured geometric form being the measured geometric form of the target tailings pond during the target monitoring period; Adjusting the cohesion and friction angle of the updated first tailings pond finite element model so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape, and taking the cohesion when the shapes coincide as the target cohesion, and taking the friction angle when the shapes coincide as the target friction angle; The target elastic modulus, the target cohesion and the target friction angle are used to update the elastic modulus, the cohesion and the friction angle of the first tailings pond finite element model respectively to obtain the target tailings pond finite element model, and the target tailings pond finite element model is analyzed by a stability analysis method to obtain the safety factor of the target tailings pond under the measured geometric shape and the corresponding plastic penetration area.

2. The quantitative evaluation method for tailings dam instability and dam break according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The method of updating the initial finite element model of the tailings pond by using the effect of the target tailings pond in the target monitoring period, and using the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond as the first finite element model of the tailings pond, comprises: Obtaining the effect of the target tailings pond during the target monitoring period, wherein the effect includes a change in dry spreading length and a change in dam body height; Using the action effect, updating the initial finite element model of the tailings pond; The cohesion of the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond is enlarged by a target multiple, and the tangent value of the friction angle of the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond is enlarged by the target multiple to obtain a first tailings pond finite element model.

3. The quantitative evaluation method for tailings dam instability and dam break according to claim 1 is characterized in that: After adjusting the elastic modulus of the first tailings pond finite element model so that the total volume of the simulated geometric form of the first tailings pond finite element model is equal to the total volume of the measured geometric form, and taking the elastic modulus when the total volumes are equal as the target elastic modulus, the method further includes: Determining whether the shape of the simulated geometric form of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincides with the shape of the measured geometric form; If the shape of the simulated geometric form of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincides with the shape of the measured geometric form, then determining that the target tailings pond is safe; If the shape of the simulated geometric form of the updated first tailings pond finite element model does not coincide with the shape of the measured geometric form, determining that sliding plastic displacement occurs in the target tailings pond; Accordingly, the adjusting the cohesion and friction angle of the updated first tailings pond finite element model so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape includes: After determining that the target tailings pond has undergone sliding plastic displacement, the cohesion and friction angle of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond are adjusted so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape.

4. The quantitative evaluation method for tailings dam instability and dam break according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The adjusting the cohesion and friction angle of the updated first tailings pond finite element model so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape includes: The strength reduction method is used to adjust the cohesion and friction angle of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated finite element model of the first tailings pond coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape.

5. The quantitative evaluation method for tailings dam instability and dam break according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The stability analysis method includes a strength reduction method or a limit equilibrium method.

6. The quantitative evaluation method for tailings dam instability and dam break according to claim 1 is characterized in that: After obtaining the safety factor of the target tailings pond and the corresponding plastic penetration area, the method further includes: Determining the safety level of the target tailings pond according to the safety factor of the target tailings pond; Based on the plastic breakthrough area, the potential sliding area when the target tailings pond breaks during the current monitoring period is determined.

7. The quantitative evaluation method for tailings dam instability and dam break according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The initial finite element model of the tailings pond is established by using the initial geometric shape of the target tailings pond and the tailings material parameters, including: Using 3D laser scanning or drone photography to obtain the initial geometric shape of the target tailings pond; Using geological survey data to obtain tailings material parameters in the target tailings pond; An initial finite element model of the tailings pond is established using the initial geometric shape and tailings material parameters of the target tailings pond.

8. A quantitative evaluation device for instability and dam break of tailings pond, characterized in that: include: An initial model building module is used to build an initial finite element model of the tailings pond using the initial geometric shape and tailings material parameters of the target tailings pond, wherein the geometric shape includes the total volume and shape, and the tailings material parameters include elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle; A first model building module is used to update the initial finite element model of the tailings pond using the effect of the target tailings pond in the target monitoring period, and use the updated initial finite element model of the tailings pond as the first tailings pond finite element model; A first adjustment module is used to adjust the elastic modulus of the first tailings pond finite element model so that the total volume of the simulated geometric form of the first tailings pond finite element model is equal to the total volume of the measured geometric form, and the elastic modulus when the total volume is equal is used as the target elastic modulus, and the measured geometric form is the measured geometric form of the target tailings pond within the target monitoring period; A second adjustment module is used to adjust the cohesion and friction angle of the updated first tailings pond finite element model so that the simulated geometric shape of the updated first tailings pond finite element model coincides with the shape of the measured geometric shape, and the cohesion when the shapes coincide is used as the target cohesion, and the friction angle when the shapes coincide is used as the target friction angle; A determination module is used to update the elastic modulus, cohesion and friction angle of the first tailings pond finite element model using the target elastic modulus, the target cohesion and the target friction angle respectively to obtain a target tailings pond finite element model, and to analyze the target tailings pond finite element model using a stability analysis method to obtain the safety factor of the target tailings pond under the measured geometric shape and the corresponding plastic penetration area.

9. A terminal comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that: When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the method for quantitatively evaluating the instability and dam failure of a tailings dam as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for quantitatively evaluating the instability and dam failure of a tailings dam as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

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