Prediction method, device, electronic equipment and medium for EUR of tight oil horizontal well

Abstract

The present invention proposes a prediction method, device, electronic equipment and medium for the EUR of a tight oil horizontal well, which is applicable to the field of oil extraction technology, including: accumulating the basic data of the tight oil horizontal well twice, that is, the j-th primary accumulated data includes accumulating the dimensionless data of the basic data of the first j time units in n time units according to the cumulative production and each main controlling factor, and the j-th secondary accumulated data includes accumulating the primary accumulated data of the first j time units in n time units according to the cumulative production and each main controlling factor, so as to weaken the adverse effects of the randomness of historical data, and establish a tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model based on the secondary accumulated data, which can accurately describe the correspondence between the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and the main controlling factors, so as to predict the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the next time unit, thereby improving the accuracy of predicting the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of oil production, and in particular relates to a method, device, electronic equipment and medium for predicting the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of a tight oil horizontal well. Background Art

[0002] The changes in oilfield development production are controlled by many factors, such as geological factors, fluid properties, mining methods, well network formats, production-increasing measures and management factors. All these factors appear "obvious and obscure" and play a "sometimes strong, sometimes weak" role. The oilfield production defined by equal time intervals (oilfield production statistics at equal intervals of time units, such as daily production, monthly production, annual production, etc.) is a comprehensive reflection of these factors. Using reservoir engineering methods to study the changing trend of oilfield production requires a large amount of observation data, as well as a comprehensive study of various undetermined factors and complicated calculations, which are mainly manifested in the natural decline of newly built production capacity and old oilfields, making oilfield production prediction, especially continuity prediction, somewhat difficult in practice.

[0003] Research on oilfield production prediction is currently very active, and numerous prediction methods have been proposed. For example, the production decline method is only applicable after an oilfield's production enters the decline phase. The waterflood curve method is only applicable to oilfields developed through waterflooding, and after the combined water cut reaches 50%. The Poisson regression production prediction model, while effective, relies on the product of a power function of time and an exponential function. Therefore, determining the parameters of the model function through real-world data fitting often presents difficulties. These methods require insufficient or incomplete raw data, making accurate predictions difficult.

[0004] In other words, existing single-well production predictions are mostly made through empirical formulas. This method is greatly affected by human factors, sample factors, and historical data, resulting in poor prediction accuracy. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The present invention provides a method, device, electronic equipment and medium for predicting the EUR of a tight oil horizontal well, which can effectively improve the accuracy of the EUR prediction of the tight oil horizontal well.

[0006] In view of the above problems, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0007] In a first aspect, a method for predicting the EUR of a tight oil horizontal well is provided, comprising:

[0008] Obtain basic data, including the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells and multiple main controlling factors affecting the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells. The cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells includes the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells for n consecutive time units, where n is a natural number and n>2;

[0009] Determine the primary accumulated data of the basic data, where the jth primary accumulated data includes the result of accumulating the dimensionless data of the basic data of the first j time units according to the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and each main controlling factor, respectively. The dimensionless data of the basic data includes the production proportion and the main controlling factor proportion of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit, the production proportion of the jth time unit is the ratio of the production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit to the total actual production of the tight oil horizontal well in n consecutive time units, and the main controlling factor proportion of the jth time unit is the ratio of the main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit to the total main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well in n consecutive time units, where j is a natural number, 1≤j≤n;

[0010] Determine the secondary cumulative data of the basic data, where the j-th secondary cumulative data includes the result of accumulating the primary cumulative data of the previous j time units according to the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and each main controlling factor;

[0011] A tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model is established based on secondary cumulative data. The tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model is used to describe the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, the corresponding relationship between the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the previous n time units and multiple main controlling factors;

[0012] Based on the cumulative production prediction model of tight oil horizontal wells, the cumulative production of tight oil wells in the n+1th time unit is determined.

[0013] Optionally, before obtaining basic data, the following is also included:

[0014] Based on the historical production information of tight oil horizontal wells, the sample screening rules and multiple main controlling factors of tight oil horizontal wells are determined;

[0015] The sample screening rules include removing tight oil horizontal wells with the following characteristics: missing data, production time less than or equal to a first number of time units (the first number of time units refers to 8 months. According to historical experience, production basically tends to be stable after 8 months, and the production data is reliable), the production increase ratio of two adjacent time units is greater than or equal to the increase ratio threshold or less than or equal to the decrease ratio threshold, and the deviation between the production of at least one time unit and the average production of all time units is greater than or equal to the production deviation threshold;

[0016] The main controlling factors include: reservoir quality, horizontal section length, fracturing stage, total fluid volume, sand addition volume, oil layer thickness, oil saturation, well spacing, and formation pressure;

[0017] Obtain basic data, including:

[0018] Based on the sample screening rules, basic data are determined from the historical production information of tight oil horizontal wells.

[0019] Optionally, a tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model is established based on the secondary cumulative data, including:

[0020] The quadratic cumulative data is input into the differential simulation model, and the influencing factors of the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells and the influencing factors of multiple main controlling factors are solved by the least square method;

[0021] Based on the influencing factors of the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells and the influencing factors of multiple main controlling factors, a cumulative production prediction model for tight oil horizontal wells is established.

[0022] Furthermore, the cumulative production prediction model for tight oil horizontal wells satisfies:

[0023] [Q (2) (t)]'=aQ (2) (t)+BU (2) (t),

[0024] Among them, [Q (2) (t)]' is the secondary cumulative production Q of tight oil horizontal wells (2) (t) the derivative of time t, U (2) (t) is the vector of the secondary cumulative factors including multiple main controlling factors, a is the influencing factor of the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells, B is the vector of the influencing factors including multiple main controlling factors of tight oil horizontal wells, B and U (2) (t) respectively satisfy:

[0025] B={b1,b2,...,b m},

[0026]

[0027] Among them, b i is the influencing factor of the i-th main controlling factor of tight oil horizontal wells, is the i-th main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well, i is a natural number, 1≤i≤m, and m is the number of main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well.

[0028] Optionally, based on the cumulative production prediction model of the tight oil horizontal well, determining the cumulative production of the tight oil well in the (n+1)th time unit includes:

[0029] Determine the discretization expression of the cumulative production prediction model of tight oil horizontal wells, where the discrete step length of the discretization expression is 1 time unit;

[0030] Based on the discretized expression, the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit is determined. The quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit is related to the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the first n consecutive time units and multiple main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit.

[0031] The secondary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit is subtracted once to obtain the primary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit;

[0032] The dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit is obtained by performing a second cumulative subtraction on the first cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit;

[0033] The dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit is reduced to a dimension, and the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit is obtained.

[0034] Furthermore, the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0035]

[0036] The cumulative production of a tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0037]

[0038] The dimensionless production of a tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0039]

[0040] The cumulative production of a tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0041]

[0042]

[0043] in, is the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the nth time unit, a is the influencing factor of the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well, b i is the influencing factor of the i-th main controlling factor of tight oil horizontal well, is the quadratic accumulation result of the i-th main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1-th time unit, i is a natural number, 1≤i≤m, and m is the number of main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well;

[0044] is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the nth time unit, is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit;

[0045] is the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit;

[0046] Q n+1 is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, Q j is the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells in the jth time unit.

[0047] In a second aspect, a prediction device for EUR of a tight oil horizontal well is provided, comprising: an acquisition module, a determination module, and an establishment module; wherein,

[0048] An acquisition module is used to acquire basic data, including the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells and multiple main controlling factors affecting the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells. The cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells includes the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells for n consecutive time units, where n is a natural number and n>2;

[0049] a determination module, configured to determine primary accumulated data of basic data, wherein the jth primary accumulated data includes a result of accumulating dimensionless data of basic data of the first j time units according to the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and each main controlling factor, respectively; the dimensionless data of the basic data includes a production proportion and a main controlling factor proportion of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit; the production proportion of the jth time unit is a ratio of the production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit to the total actual production of the tight oil horizontal well in n consecutive time units; the main controlling factor proportion of the jth time unit is a ratio of the main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit to the total main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well in n consecutive time units, where j is a natural number, 1≤j≤n;

[0050] The determination module is further used to determine secondary cumulative data of the basic data, where the jth secondary cumulative data includes the result of accumulating the primary cumulative data of the previous j time units according to the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and each main controlling factor;

[0051] Establish a module for establishing a cumulative production prediction model for tight oil horizontal wells based on secondary cumulative data. The cumulative production prediction model for tight oil horizontal wells is used to describe the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, the corresponding relationship between the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the previous n time units and multiple main controlling factors;

[0052] The determination module is further used to determine the cumulative production of the tight oil well in the n+1th time unit based on the cumulative production prediction model of the tight oil horizontal well.

[0053] Optionally, the determination module is further configured to determine, before acquiring the basic data, sample screening rules and a plurality of main controlling factors for the tight oil horizontal wells based on historical production information of the tight oil horizontal wells;

[0054] The sample screening rule includes removing tight oil horizontal wells with the following characteristics: missing data, production time less than or equal to a first number of time units, a production increase ratio of two adjacent time units greater than or equal to an increase ratio threshold or less than or equal to a decrease ratio threshold, and a deviation between the production of at least one time unit and the average production of all time units greater than or equal to a production deviation threshold;

[0055] The main controlling factors include: reservoir quality, horizontal section length, fracturing stage, total fluid volume, sand addition volume, oil layer thickness, oil saturation, well spacing, and formation pressure;

[0056] The determination module is also used to determine basic data from historical production information of tight oil horizontal wells based on sample screening rules.

[0057] Optionally, a module is established, further configured to input the quadratic cumulative data into a differential simulation model, and solve the influencing factors of the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and the influencing factors of the multiple main controlling factors by the least square method;

[0058] The establishment module is also used to establish a cumulative production prediction model for tight oil horizontal wells based on the influencing factors of the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells and the influencing factors of multiple main controlling factors.

[0059] Furthermore, the cumulative production prediction model for tight oil horizontal wells satisfies:

[0060] [Q (2) (t)]'=aQ (2) (t)+BU (2) (t),

[0061] Among them, [Q (2) (t)]' is the secondary cumulative production Q of tight oil horizontal wells (2) (t) the derivative of time t, U (2)(t) is the vector of the secondary cumulative factors including multiple main controlling factors, a is the influencing factor of the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells, B is the vector of the influencing factors including multiple main controlling factors of tight oil horizontal wells, B and U (2) (t) respectively satisfy:

[0062] B={b1,b2,...,b m},

[0063]

[0064] Among them, b i is the influencing factor of the i-th main controlling factor of tight oil horizontal wells, is the i-th main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well, i is a natural number, 1≤i≤m, and m is the number of main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well.

[0065] Optionally, the determination module is further configured to determine a discretized expression of a tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model, wherein the discrete step length of the discretized expression is 1 time unit;

[0066] The determination module is further used to determine the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit based on the discretized expression, the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit being related to the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the first n consecutive time units and multiple main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit;

[0067] The determination module is further used to perform a cumulative subtraction on the secondary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit to obtain the primary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit;

[0068] The determination module is further used to perform a secondary cumulative subtraction on the primary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit to obtain the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit;

[0069] The determination module is further used to perform dimensional reduction processing on the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit to obtain the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit.

[0070] Furthermore, the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0071]

[0072] The cumulative production of a tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0073]

[0074] The dimensionless production of a tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0075]

[0076] The cumulative production of a tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0077]

[0078]

[0079] in, is the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the nth time unit, a is the influencing factor of the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well, b i is the influencing factor of the i-th main controlling factor of tight oil horizontal well, is the quadratic accumulation result of the i-th main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1-th time unit, i is a natural number, 1≤i≤m, and m is the number of main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well;

[0080] is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the nth time unit, is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit;

[0081] is the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit;

[0082] Q n+1 is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, Q j is the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells in the jth time unit.

[0083] In a third aspect, an electronic device is provided, comprising: a processor coupled to a memory;

[0084] The processor is used to read and execute the program or instructions stored in the memory, so that the electronic device executes the method as described in the first aspect.

[0085] In a fourth aspect, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, which stores a program or instruction. When a computer reads and executes the program or instruction, the computer executes the method described in the first aspect.

[0086] Based on the method, device, electronic equipment and medium for EUR of tight oil horizontal wells provided by the present invention, the basic data of tight oil horizontal wells can be accumulated twice, that is, the j-th primary accumulated data includes the dimensionless data of the basic data of the first j time units in n time units according to the cumulative production and each main controlling factor, and the j-th secondary accumulated data includes the primary accumulated data of the first j time units in n time units according to the cumulative production and each main controlling factor, so as to weaken the adverse effects of the randomness of historical data, and establish a tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model based on the secondary accumulated data, which can accurately describe the correspondence between the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and the main controlling factors, so as to predict the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the next time unit. In other words, this prediction method determines the main controlling factors of the cumulative production of a single tight oil well based on reservoir engineering principles and experience, and uses an adaptive learning simulation method based on historical data to predict the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells. The advantages are: the prediction calculation process is theoretically rigorous; the dimensionless processing of various physical variables eliminates the need to consider the complex physical background in the calculation process; and the data accumulation processing reduces the adverse effects of the randomness of historical data, thereby improving the accuracy of predicting the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells.

[0087] Other features and advantages of the present invention will be described in the following description, and in part will become apparent from the description, or will be understood by practicing the present invention. The purpose and other advantages of the present invention can be realized and obtained by the structures pointed out in the description, claims and drawings. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0088] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following is a brief introduction to the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative work.

[0089] Figure 1 A schematic flow chart of a method for predicting EUR of a tight oil horizontal well provided in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0090] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the average percentage error of sample fitting provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0091] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the structure of a prediction device for tight oil horizontal well EUR provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0092] Figure 4 A schematic structural diagram of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0093] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more clear, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative efforts shall fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0094] First combine Figure 1-Figure 2 , detailed description of the embodiment of the present invention provides an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting EUR of a tight oil horizontal well.

[0095] For example, Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for predicting EUR of a tight oil horizontal well provided in an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0096] S101, obtaining basic data.

[0097] Among them, the basic data include the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells and multiple main controlling factors affecting the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells. The cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells includes the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells for n consecutive time units, where n is a natural number and n>2.

[0098] Among them, the basic data refers to the historical production of tight oil horizontal wells and the observed values ​​of various main controlling factors affecting the historical production. The basic data of the most recent n consecutive time units can be selected. The time unit can be a month, quarter, half year, year, etc., which is not limited in the embodiment of the present invention.

[0099] Optionally, before S101, obtaining basic data, the following steps are further included:

[0100] Based on the historical production information of tight oil horizontal wells, the sample screening rules and multiple main controlling factors of tight oil horizontal wells are determined.

[0101] Specifically, the sample screening rules include removing tight oil horizontal wells with the following characteristics: missing data, production time less than or equal to a first number of time units (the first number of time units refers to 8 months. According to historical experience, production basically tends to be stable after 8 months, and the production data is reliable), the production increase ratio of two adjacent time units is greater than or equal to the increase ratio threshold or less than or equal to the decrease ratio threshold, and the deviation between the production of at least one time unit and the average production of all time units is greater than or equal to the production deviation threshold.

[0102] Among them, data missing refers to the lack of observation data on the cumulative production of certain time units and / or the main controlling factors of tight oil horizontal wells in certain time units.

[0103] Time units with a production time less than or equal to the first number refer to tight oil horizontal wells with a short production time or that have not yet been put into production, such as those with a production time of less than 8 months. The first number can be determined based on actual needs, such as 10 months, 12 months, etc.

[0104] The production increase ratio of two adjacent time units is greater than or equal to the increase ratio threshold or less than or equal to the decrease ratio threshold, which means that the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal wells in the two previous and subsequent time units has increased or decreased sharply, such as greater than 2 times or less than 1 / 2.

[0105] Multiple controlling factors include: reservoir quality (reservoir quality is equal to the square root of (K / φ), K is permeability, φ is porosity), horizontal section length, fracturing stage, total fluid volume injected into the well, sand addition volume, oil layer thickness, oil saturation, well spacing, and formation pressure.

[0106] Accordingly, S101, obtaining basic data, includes:

[0107] Based on the sample screening rules, basic data are determined from the historical production information of tight oil horizontal wells to improve the sample quality.

[0108] According to the chronological order of the horizontal wells being put into production and the above sample screening rules, a table of basic data in the format shown in Table 1 below can be determined.

[0109] Table 1

[0110]

[0111] Among them, u ij is the parameter of the i-th main control factor in the j-th month of production (i=1,2,...,m;j=1,2,...,n), Q j is the average production of sample wells in the jth month of production. This is a two-dimensional data table with the cumulative production of tight horizontal wells as the state variable (or output variable) and the main controlling factors 1 to m as input variables, such as reservoir quality, horizontal section length, fracturing stage number, total fluid volume injected, sand injection volume, reservoir thickness, oil saturation, well spacing, and formation pressure.

[0112] S102, determining the primary accumulated data of the basic data.

[0113] Among them, the j-th cumulative data includes the results of accumulating the dimensionless data of the basic data of the first j time units according to the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and each main controlling factor. The dimensionless data of the basic data include the production proportion and main controlling factor proportion of the tight oil horizontal well in the j-th time unit. The production proportion of the j-th time unit is the ratio of the production of the tight oil horizontal well in the j-th time unit to the total actual production of the tight oil horizontal well in n consecutive time units. The main controlling factor proportion of the j-th time unit is the ratio of the main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well in the j-th time unit to the total main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well in n consecutive time units. j is a natural number, 1≤j≤n.

[0114] First, the basic data in Table 1 were dimensionlessly processed to obtain the dimensionless data of the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells and the main controlling factors, as shown in Table 2.

[0115] Table 2

[0116]

[0117] The calculation formula from Table 1 to Table 2 is as follows:

[0118]

[0119] in,

[0120]

[0121] in,

[0122]

[0123] It can be seen that the data in Table 2 are no longer dimensioned, but retain the input-output correlation information between the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells and the main controlling factors.

[0124] Then, Table 2 is accumulated once to obtain dimensionless data, as shown in Table 3.

[0125] Table 3

[0126]

[0127] There are two purposes for accumulating Table 2 to obtain Table 3: first, it can prepare for the establishment of a corresponding relationship model between the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells and the main controlling factors; second, it can weaken the adverse impact of the randomness of historical data on the accuracy of the prediction results. The calculation formula for a single accumulation is as follows:

[0128]

[0129]

[0130] S103, determining secondary accumulated data of basic data.

[0131] The j-th secondary cumulative data includes the result of accumulating the primary cumulative data of the previous j time units according to the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and each main controlling factor.

[0132] Similar to the first accumulation, Table 3 can be accumulated again (i.e., second accumulation) to obtain the secondary accumulation data of the basic data, as shown in Table 4.

[0133] Table 4

[0134]

[0135]

[0136] The purpose of adding Table 3 again (secondary accumulation) to obtain Table 4 is also to further prepare for model building and weaken the randomness of historical data. The calculation formula for the secondary accumulation is as follows:

[0137]

[0138]

[0139] It should be noted that the number of accumulations is not limited to two times, and may be one, three, four, etc., as long as the prediction accuracy can be met, and the embodiment of the present invention does not limit this.

[0140] S104: Establish a tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model based on the secondary accumulation data.

[0141] Among them, the cumulative production prediction model of tight oil horizontal wells is used to describe the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells in the n+1th time unit, the corresponding relationship between the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells in the previous n time units and multiple main controlling factors.

[0142] Optionally, S104, establishing a tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model based on the secondary accumulated data, including:

[0143] The quadratic cumulative data is input into the differential simulation model, and the influencing factor a of the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells and the influencing factors b1, b2, ..., b of multiple main controlling factors are solved by the least squares method. m ;

[0144] The influencing factor a of the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells and the influencing factors b1, b2, ..., b of multiple main controlling factors m , establish a cumulative production prediction model for tight oil horizontal wells.

[0145] Among them, the cumulative production prediction model of tight oil horizontal wells meets the following requirements:

[0146] [Q (2) (t)]'=aQ (2) (t)+BU (2) (t),

[0147] Among them, [Q (2) (t)]' is the secondary cumulative production Q of tight oil horizontal wells (2) (t) the derivative of time t, U (2) (t) is the vector of the secondary cumulative factors including multiple main controlling factors, a is the influencing factor of the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells, B is the vector of the influencing factors including multiple main controlling factors of tight oil horizontal wells, B and U (2) (t) respectively satisfy:

[0148] B={b1,b2,...,b m},

[0149]

[0150] Among them, b i is the influencing factor of the i-th main controlling factor of tight oil horizontal wells, is the i-th main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well, i is a natural number, 1≤i≤m, and m is the number of main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well.

[0151] S105 , determining the cumulative production of the tight oil well in the (n+1)th time unit based on the cumulative production prediction model of the tight oil horizontal well.

[0152] Optionally, S105, determining the cumulative production of the tight oil well in the (n+1)th time unit based on the cumulative production prediction model of the tight oil horizontal well, includes:

[0153] Determine the discretization expression of the cumulative production prediction model of tight oil horizontal wells, where the discrete step length of the discretization expression is 1 time unit;

[0154] Based on the discretized expression, the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the first n consecutive time units, and multiple main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit (which can be obtained based on existing estimation methods) are determined;

[0155] The secondary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit is subtracted once to obtain the primary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit;

[0156] The dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit is obtained by performing a second cumulative subtraction on the first cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit;

[0157] The dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit is reduced to a dimension, and the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit is obtained.

[0158] Specifically, [Q (2) (t)]′=aQ (2) (t)+BU (2) (t) According to the first-order approximate discretization of time, the discretization expression of the cumulative production prediction model of tight oil horizontal wells is obtained, as shown in the following formula:

[0159]

[0160] Among them, t (k+1) It represents the next time point after t. The time length between two adjacent time points is a discrete step length, which can be minutes, hours, months, quarters, half years, years, etc.

[0161] (1) To Q (2) (t k+1 ) Do a cumulative subtraction to get Q (1) (t k+1 ), as shown below:

[0162]

[0163] (3) Q (1) (t k+1 ) Do another cumulative subtraction to get Q (0) (t k+1 ), as shown below:

[0164]

[0165] Taking the discrete step length as the above time unit, the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0166]

[0167] The cumulative production of a tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0168]

[0169] The dimensionless production of a tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0170]

[0171] The cumulative production of a tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0172]

[0173]

[0174] in, is the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the nth time unit, a is the influencing factor of the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well, b i is the influencing factor of the i-th main controlling factor of tight oil horizontal well, is the quadratic accumulation result of the i-th main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1-th time unit, i is a natural number, 1≤i≤m, and m is the number of main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well;

[0175] is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the nth time unit, is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit;

[0176] is the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit;

[0177] Q n+1 is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, Q j is the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells in the jth time unit.

[0178] Among them, the first cumulative reduction is the inverse process of the above-mentioned second cumulative addition, the second cumulative reduction is the inverse process of the above-mentioned first cumulative addition, and the dimensional reduction is the inverse process of the above-mentioned dimensionless reduction.

[0179] The following is a detailed explanation with an example.

[0180] In the first step, 201 qualified wells were selected according to the sample screening rules; the main controlling factors of the cumulative production of single tight oil horizontal wells were determined to be the total oil layer length, surface crude oil viscosity, porosity, oil saturation, brittleness index, number of single-stage clusters, number of fracturing stages per 100-meter oil layer, amount of liquid entering the ground per 100-meter oil layer, and amount of sand added per 100-meter oil layer.

[0181] The second step is to obtain the basic data of the cumulative production of single tight oil horizontal wells and the main controlling factors, as shown in Table 5.

[0182] Table 5

[0183]

[0184] The third step is to process the data.

[0185] (1) Assign specific values ​​to Table 5 to obtain basic data, as shown in Table 6.

[0186] Table 6

[0187]

[0188] (2) The basic data in Table 6 are dimensionlessly processed to obtain the dimensionless data of the basic data, as shown in Table 7.

[0189] Table 7

[0190]

[0191] It can be seen that the data in Table 7 are no longer dimensioned, but the correlation information between the cumulative production of single tight oil horizontal wells and the main controlling factors is retained.

[0192] (3) Accumulate the dimensionless data in Table 7 to obtain the accumulated data of the basic data, as shown in Table 8.

[0193] Table 8

[0194]

[0195] (4) Perform secondary accumulation on the primary accumulated data in Table 8 to obtain the secondary accumulated data of the basic data, as shown in Table 9.

[0196] Table 9

[0197]

[0198] The fourth step is to establish a tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model based on the secondary cumulative data in Table 9, and fit the parameters a and b j , and the training simulation parameters are obtained, as shown in Table 10.

[0199] Table 10

[0200] a <![CDATA[b1]]> <![CDATA[b2]]> <![CDATA[b3]]> <![CDATA[b4]]> <![CDATA[b5]]> <![CDATA[b6]]> <![CDATA[b7]]> <![CDATA[b8]]> <![CDATA[b9]]> 0.8736 0.52094 -12.2129 1.8813 0.8791 0.8811 0.9003 0.9946 1.8533 4.4556

[0201] Step 5: Substitute Table 10 into a and B obtained through simulation training to obtain the formula for the cumulative production prediction model of tight oil horizontal wells:

[0202]

[0203] The formula fits the historical data as follows: Figure 2 As shown. Figure 2It can be seen that the fitting error percentage is between -2% and +3%, and the prediction error can meet the requirements.

[0204] (1) Substitute into Table 9 get in

[0205] (2) By Do a cumulative subtraction to get

[0206]

[0207] get

[0208] (3) By Do the cumulative subtraction again to get

[0209]

[0210] get

[0211] (4) Dimension reduction

[0212] Depend on Conclusion Solve for Q 121 =110.96 (tons / month).

[0213] Extrapolating sequentially, we can get Q 122 , Q 123 ..., until the life cycle threshold (12 tons / month), Q is predicted EUR =35,234 tons.

[0214] The single-well EUR results predicted by this method under specific conditions are basically consistent with the actual single-well EUR of tight oil, and the fitting accuracy between the predicted and actual values ​​of single wells is greater than 90%. It is more accurate and convenient than existing prediction methods.

[0215] Based on the prediction method of EUR of tight oil horizontal wells provided by the present invention, the basic data of tight oil horizontal wells can be accumulated twice, that is, the j-th primary accumulated data includes the dimensionless data of the basic data of the first j time units in n time units according to the cumulative production and each main controlling factor, and the j-th secondary accumulated data includes the primary accumulated data of the first j time units in n time units according to the cumulative production and each main controlling factor, so as to weaken the adverse effects of the randomness of historical data, and establish a tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model based on the secondary accumulated data, which can accurately describe the correspondence between the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and the main controlling factors, so as to predict the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the next time unit. In other words, this prediction method determines the main controlling factors of the cumulative production of a single tight oil well based on reservoir engineering principles and experience, and uses an adaptive learning simulation method based on historical data to predict the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells. The advantages are: the prediction calculation process is theoretically rigorous; the dimensionless processing of various physical variables eliminates the need to consider the complex physical background in the calculation process; and the data accumulation processing reduces the adverse effects of the randomness of historical data, thereby improving the accuracy of predicting the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells.

[0216] Combined with the above Figure 1-Figure 2 The prediction method of tight oil horizontal well EUR provided by the embodiment of the present invention is described in detail. Figure 3 and Figure 4 The device and electronic device provided by the embodiments of the present invention are respectively described.

[0217] For example, Figure 3 The present invention also provides a schematic diagram of a device for predicting the EUR of a tight oil horizontal well. The device can execute the method described in the above method embodiment.

[0218] like Figure 3 As shown, the apparatus 300 includes: an acquisition module 301, a determination module 302 and an establishment module 303; wherein,

[0219] An acquisition module 301 is configured to acquire basic data, including the cumulative production of a tight oil horizontal well and multiple main controlling factors affecting the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well. The cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well includes the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well for n consecutive time units, where n is a natural number and n>2.

[0220] Determination module 302 is used to determine primary accumulated data of basic data, where the jth primary accumulated data includes the result of accumulating dimensionless data of basic data of the first j time units according to the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and each main controlling factor, respectively. The dimensionless data of the basic data includes the production proportion and main controlling factor proportion of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit, where the production proportion of the jth time unit is the ratio of the production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit to the total actual production of the tight oil horizontal well in n consecutive time units, and the main controlling factor proportion of the jth time unit is the ratio of the main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit to the total main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well in n consecutive time units, where j is a natural number, 1≤j≤n;

[0221] The determination module 302 is further configured to determine secondary accumulated data of the basic data, wherein the j-th secondary accumulated data includes the result of accumulating the primary accumulated data of the previous j time units according to the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and each main controlling factor;

[0222] Establishing module 303, for establishing a tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model based on the secondary accumulated data, wherein the tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model is used to describe the correspondence between the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the previous n time units, and multiple main controlling factors;

[0223] The determination module 302 is further configured to determine the cumulative production of the tight oil well in the (n+1)th time unit based on the cumulative production prediction model of the tight oil horizontal well.

[0224] Optionally, the determination module 302 is further configured to determine, before acquiring the basic data, a sample screening rule and a plurality of main controlling factors for the tight oil horizontal wells based on the historical production information of the tight oil horizontal wells;

[0225] The sample screening rules include removing tight oil horizontal wells with the following characteristics: missing data, production time less than or equal to a first number of time units (the first number of time units refers to 8 months. According to historical experience, production basically tends to be stable after 8 months, and the production data is reliable), the production increase ratio of two adjacent time units is greater than or equal to the increase ratio threshold or less than or equal to the decrease ratio threshold, and the deviation between the production of at least one time unit and the average production of all time units is greater than or equal to the production deviation threshold;

[0226] The main controlling factors include: reservoir quality, horizontal section length, fracturing stage, total fluid volume, sand addition volume, oil layer thickness, oil saturation, well spacing, and formation pressure;

[0227] The determination module 302 is further configured to determine basic data from the historical production information of the tight oil horizontal wells based on sample screening rules.

[0228] Optionally, the module 303 is further configured to input the secondary accumulated data into a differential simulation model, and solve the influencing factors of the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and the influencing factors of multiple main controlling factors by the least square method;

[0229] The building module 303 is further used to build a cumulative production prediction model for tight oil horizontal wells based on the influencing factors of the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells and the influencing factors of multiple main controlling factors.

[0230] Furthermore, the cumulative production prediction model for tight oil horizontal wells satisfies:

[0231] [Q (2) (t)]'=aQ (2) (t)+BU (2) (t),

[0232] Among them, [Q (2) (t)]' is the secondary cumulative production Q of tight oil horizontal wells (2) (t) the derivative of time t, U (2) (t) is the vector of the secondary cumulative factors including multiple main controlling factors, a is the influencing factor of the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells, B is the vector of the influencing factors including multiple main controlling factors of tight oil horizontal wells, B and U (2) (t) respectively satisfy:

[0233] B={b1,b2,...,b m},

[0234]

[0235] Among them, b i is the influencing factor of the i-th main controlling factor of tight oil horizontal wells, is the i-th main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well, i is a natural number, 1≤i≤m, and m is the number of main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well.

[0236] Optionally, the determination module 302 is further configured to determine a discretized expression of a tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model, wherein the discrete step length of the discretized expression is 1 time unit;

[0237] The determination module 302 is further configured to determine, based on the discretized expression, the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, where the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit is related to the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the first n consecutive time units and a plurality of main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit;

[0238] The determination module 302 is further configured to perform a cumulative subtraction on the secondary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit to obtain the primary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit;

[0239] The determination module 302 is further configured to perform a secondary cumulative subtraction on the primary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit to obtain the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit;

[0240] The determination module 302 is further configured to perform dimensionality reduction processing on the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the (n+1)th time unit to obtain the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the (n+1)th time unit.

[0241] Furthermore, the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0242]

[0243] The cumulative production of a tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0244]

[0245] The dimensionless production of a tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0246]

[0247] The cumulative production of a tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies:

[0248]

[0249]

[0250] in, is the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the nth time unit, a is the influencing factor of the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well, b i is the influencing factor of the i-th main controlling factor of tight oil horizontal well, is the quadratic accumulation result of the i-th main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1-th time unit, i is a natural number, 1≤i≤m, and m is the number of main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well;

[0251] is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the nth time unit, is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit;

[0252] is the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit;

[0253] Q n+1 is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, Q j is the cumulative production of tight oil horizontal wells in the jth time unit.

[0254] For example, Figure 4 A schematic structural diagram of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0255] like Figure 4 As shown, the electronic device 400 includes: a processor 401, the processor 401 is coupled to a memory 402;

[0256] The processor 401 is configured to read and execute the program or instruction stored in the memory 402 , so that the electronic device 400 executes the method described in the above method embodiment.

[0257] Optionally, the electronic device 400 may further include a transceiver 403 for the electronic device 400 to communicate with other devices.

[0258] It should be noted that, for the sake of convenience, Figure 3 and Figure 4 Only the main components of the distributed photovoltaic power distribution network output prediction device 300 and the electronic device 400 are shown. In actual applications, the distributed photovoltaic power distribution network output prediction device 300 and the electronic device 400 may also include components or assemblies not shown in the figures.

[0259] An embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores a program or instruction. When a computer reads and executes the program or instruction, the computer executes the method described in the above method embodiment.

[0260] Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein; and these modifications or replacements do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting EUR of a tight oil horizontal well, characterized in that: include: Obtaining basic data, the basic data including a cumulative production of a tight oil horizontal well and a plurality of main controlling factors affecting the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well, the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well including the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well for n consecutive time units, where n is a natural number and n>2; Determine primary accumulated data of the basic data, the jth primary accumulated data including a result of accumulating dimensionless data of the basic data of the first j time units according to the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and each main controlling factor, the dimensionless data of the basic data including a production proportion and a main controlling factor proportion of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit, the production proportion of the jth time unit being a ratio of the production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit to the sum of actual productions of the tight oil horizontal well in n consecutive time units, the main controlling factor proportion of the jth time unit being a ratio of the main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit to the sum of the main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well in n consecutive time units, where j is a natural number, 1≤j≤n; Determining secondary accumulated data of the basic data, wherein the j-th secondary accumulated data includes a result of accumulating the primary accumulated data of the previous j time units according to the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and each main controlling factor; Establishing the cumulative production prediction model of the tight oil horizontal well based on the secondary accumulated data, the cumulative production prediction model of the tight oil horizontal well is used to describe the corresponding relationship between the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the previous n time units, and the plurality of the main controlling factors; Based on the cumulative production prediction model of the tight oil horizontal well, the cumulative production of the tight oil well in the (n+1)th time unit is determined.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Before obtaining the basic data, the method further includes: Determining a sample screening rule for the tight oil horizontal well and a plurality of the main controlling factors according to historical production information of the tight oil horizontal well; The sample screening rule includes removing tight oil horizontal wells having the following characteristics: missing data, production time less than or equal to a first number of time units, a production increase ratio of two adjacent time units greater than or equal to an increase ratio threshold or less than or equal to a decrease ratio threshold, and a deviation between the production of at least one time unit and the average production of all time units greater than or equal to a production deviation threshold; The main controlling factors include: reservoir quality, horizontal section length, fracturing stage, total fluid volume, sand addition volume, oil layer thickness, oil saturation, well spacing, and formation pressure; The obtaining of basic data includes: Based on the sample screening rule, the basic data is determined from the historical production information of the tight oil horizontal well.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The method of establishing the tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model based on the secondary accumulated data includes: Inputting the quadratic cumulative data into a differential simulation model, and solving the influencing factors of the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and the influencing factors of multiple main controlling factors by the least square method; Based on the influencing factors of the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and the influencing factors of multiple main controlling factors, a cumulative production prediction model for the tight oil horizontal well is established.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The cumulative production prediction model for tight oil horizontal wells satisfies the following requirements: [Q (2) (t)]'=aQ (2) (t)+BU (2) (t), Among them, [Q (2) (t)]' is the secondary cumulative production Q of the tight oil horizontal well (2) (t) the derivative of time t, U (2) (t) is a vector of secondary cumulative factors including multiple main controlling factors, a is the influencing factor of the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well, B is a vector of influencing factors including multiple main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well, B and U (2) (t) respectively satisfy: B={b1,b2,...,b m }, Among them, b i is the influencing factor of the i-th main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well, u i (2) (t) is the i-th main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well, i is a natural number, 1≤i≤m, and m is the number of main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that Determining the cumulative production of the tight oil well in the (n+1)th time unit based on the cumulative production prediction model of the tight oil horizontal well includes: Determining a discretized expression of the tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model, wherein the discrete step length of the discretized expression is 1 time unit; Determining, based on the discretized expression, the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, where the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit is related to the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the first n consecutive time units and a plurality of main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit; Performing a cumulative subtraction on the secondary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit to obtain a primary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit; Performing a second cumulative subtraction on the first cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit to obtain the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit; The dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the (n+1)th time unit is subjected to dimension reduction processing to obtain the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the (n+1)th time unit.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies: The cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies: The dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies: The cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies: in, is the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, Q n (2) is the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the nth time unit, a is the influencing factor of the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well, b i is the influencing factor of the i-th main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well, is the quadratic accumulation result of the ith main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, i is a natural number, 1≤i≤m, and m is the number of the main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well; is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the nth time unit, is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit; is the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit; Q n+1 is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, Q j is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit.

7. A prediction device for EUR of a tight oil horizontal well, characterized by: include: Acquire module, determine module and establish module; wherein, The acquisition module is configured to acquire basic data, wherein the basic data includes a cumulative production of a tight oil horizontal well and a plurality of main controlling factors affecting the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well, wherein the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well includes the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well for n consecutive time units, where n is a natural number and n>2; The determination module is configured to determine primary accumulated data of the basic data, wherein the jth primary accumulated data includes a result of accumulating dimensionless data of the basic data of the first j time units according to the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and each main controlling factor, the dimensionless data of the basic data including a production proportion and a main controlling factor proportion of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit, the production proportion of the jth time unit being a ratio of the production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit to the sum of actual productions of the tight oil horizontal well in n consecutive time units, the main controlling factor proportion of the jth time unit being a ratio of the main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit to the sum of main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well in n consecutive time units, where j is a natural number, 1≤j≤n; The determining module is further configured to determine secondary accumulated data of the basic data, wherein the j-th secondary accumulated data includes a result of accumulating the primary accumulated data of the previous j time units according to the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and each main controlling factor; The establishment module is used to establish the cumulative production prediction model of the tight oil horizontal well based on the secondary accumulated data, and the cumulative production prediction model of the tight oil horizontal well is used to describe the corresponding relationship between the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the previous n time units, and the multiple main controlling factors; The determination module is further configured to determine the cumulative production of the tight oil well in the (n+1)th time unit based on the cumulative production prediction model of the tight oil horizontal well.

8. The device according to claim 7, characterized in that The determination module is further configured to determine, before acquiring the basic data, a sample screening rule for the tight oil horizontal well and a plurality of the main controlling factors based on historical production information of the tight oil horizontal well; The sample screening rule includes removing tight oil horizontal wells having the following characteristics: missing data, production time less than or equal to a first number of time units, a production increase ratio of two adjacent time units greater than or equal to an increase ratio threshold or less than or equal to a decrease ratio threshold, and a deviation between the production of at least one time unit and the average production of all time units greater than or equal to a production deviation threshold; The main controlling factors include: reservoir quality, horizontal section length, fracturing stage, total fluid volume, sand addition volume, oil layer thickness, oil saturation, well spacing, and formation pressure; The determination module is further configured to determine the basic data from the historical production information of the tight oil horizontal well based on the sample screening rule.

9. The device according to claim 8, characterized in that The establishment module is further configured to input the secondary accumulated data into a differential simulation model, and solve the influencing factors of the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and the influencing factors of multiple main controlling factors by the least square method; The establishment module is further used to establish a cumulative production prediction model for the tight oil horizontal well based on the influencing factors of the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well and the influencing factors of multiple main controlling factors.

10. The device according to claim 9, characterized in that The cumulative production prediction model for tight oil horizontal wells satisfies the following requirements: [Q (2) (t)]'=aQ (2) (t)+BU (2) (t), Among them, [Q (2) (t)]' is the secondary cumulative production Q of the tight oil horizontal well (2) (t) the derivative of time t, U (2) (t) is a vector of secondary cumulative factors including multiple main controlling factors, a is the influencing factor of the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well, B is a vector of influencing factors including multiple main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well, B and U (2) (t) respectively satisfy: B={b1,b2,...,b m }, Among them, b i is the influencing factor of the i-th main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well, is the i-th main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well, i is a natural number, 1≤i≤m, and m is the number of main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well.

11. The device according to claim 10, characterized in that The determination module is further configured to determine a discretized expression of the tight oil horizontal well cumulative production prediction model, wherein the discrete step length of the discretized expression is 1 time unit; The determination module is further configured to determine, based on the discretized expression, a quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, wherein the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit is related to the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the first n consecutive time units and a plurality of main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit; The determination module is further configured to perform a cumulative subtraction on the secondary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the (n+1)th time unit to obtain the primary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the (n+1)th time unit; The determination module is further configured to perform a secondary cumulative subtraction on the primary cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit to obtain the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit; The determination module is further configured to perform dimensional reduction processing on the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit to obtain the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit.

12. The device according to claim 11, characterized in that The quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies: The cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies: The dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies: The cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit satisfies: in, is the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the quadratic cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the nth time unit, a is the influencing factor of the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well, b i is the influencing factor of the i-th main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well, is the quadratic accumulation result of the ith main controlling factor of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, i is a natural number, 1≤i≤m, and m is the number of the main controlling factors of the tight oil horizontal well; is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the nth time unit, is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit; is the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, is the dimensionless production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit; Q n+1 is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the n+1th time unit, Q j is the cumulative production of the tight oil horizontal well in the jth time unit.

13. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: a processor coupled to the memory; The processor is configured to read and execute the program or instruction stored in the memory, so that the electronic device executes the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

14. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that A program or instruction is stored, and when a computer reads and executes the program or instruction, the computer is caused to execute the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

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