Method for identifying key sea temperature zone influencing continuous low-temperature rain and snow and related equipment
By calculating the sea temperature correlation between the target area and the target ocean area, and combining the global distribution field of climate state sea temperature and atmospheric pattern tests, the key sea temperature zones that affect persistent low temperature rain and snow were accurately identified, solving the problem of poor identification results in the existing technology, and quantifying the impact on different sea temperature zones was achieved.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202411772892.7
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2024-12-04
- Publication Date
- 2025-03-25
AI Technical Summary
The prior art is difficult to accurately identify the key sea temperature zones that affect persistent low temperature rain and snow, and it is impossible to effectively separate the respective impacts of sea temperature in different sea temperature zones on continuous low temperature rain and snow events.
By determining the cumulative number of days in which persistent low-temperature rain and snow events occur in the target period, the correlation with the target ocean area on the interannual scale is calculated, and the potential key sea temperature zone is determined based on the correlation calculation results and significance tests. Then, a global distribution field of climate state sea temperature is constructed based on the observed sea temperature data, and the global atmospheric mode is driven to conduct benchmark tests and sea temperature disturbance tests to quantify the impact of sea temperatures in different sea temperature areas on the persistent low-temperature rain and snow events in the target area.
Accurate identification of key sea temperature zones that affect continuous low temperature rain and snow is achieved, the impact of sea temperatures in different sea temperature zones on continuous low temperature rain and snow events in the target area is quantified, and the identification effect is improved.
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Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The present invention relates to the field of meteorological technology, and in particular to a method and related equipment for identifying a key sea temperature zone affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow. Background Art
[0002] At present, the method for studying the impact of sea temperature on persistent low temperature rain and snow events is mainly based on simple statistical analysis of observational data, that is, using the cumulative number of days of persistent low temperature rain and snow events in many years of observation data and the global distribution of sea temperature, the correlation between persistent low temperature rain and snow events in the area of concern and the sea temperature in different regions on the interannual scale is calculated, and the areas with high correlation and passing the significance test are identified as key sea temperature areas.
[0003] However, in the above method, since persistent low-temperature rain and snow events are affected by the joint effects of sea temperatures in different sea temperature zones, and since there is a correlation between the sea temperatures in different sea temperature zones, it is impossible to accurately separate the respective effects of sea temperatures in different sea temperature zones on persistent low-temperature rain and snow events based solely on observational analysis; at the same time, while persistent low-temperature rain and snow events are affected by sea temperature, they also change the sea temperature distribution in turn, so the above method based on observational analysis cannot directly derive the causal relationship between them; and low temperature and rain and snow are both necessary conditions for persistent low-temperature rain and snow events, and the key sea temperature zones of the two may be inconsistent, and the physical connection between them cannot be clarified based solely on observations. Summary of the invention
[0004] In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and related equipment for identifying key sea temperature areas that affect persistent low temperature rain and snow, so as to overcome the problem that the current identification of key sea temperature areas that affect persistent low temperature rain and snow is not effective.
[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:
[0006] In a first aspect, the present application provides a method for identifying a key sea temperature area affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow, comprising:
[0007] Determine the cumulative number of days in which persistent low-temperature rain and snow events occur in the target area during the target period;
[0008] Calculate the correlation between the cumulative number of days with persistent low-temperature rain and snow events in the target area during the target period and the sea temperature in the target ocean area on an interannual scale, and determine the potential key sea temperature area based on the correlation calculation results and significance test;
[0009] Based on the observed sea temperature data, a climatological sea temperature global distribution field is constructed, and a global atmospheric model is driven by the climatological sea temperature global distribution field to conduct a benchmark test;
[0010] In the climatological sea temperature global distribution field, sea temperature difference values are superimposed for the potential key sea temperature areas to construct a sea temperature disturbance field, and the global atmospheric model is driven by the sea temperature disturbance field to conduct a sea temperature disturbance test;
[0011] Based on the test result data of the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test, the key sea temperature area that affects the target area to produce continuous low-temperature rain and snow is determined from the potential key sea temperature areas.
[0012] Furthermore, in some embodiments of the present application, the continuous low-temperature rain and snow event is an event in which the average temperature of the day is lower than the target temperature value and the precipitation value of the day is greater than the target precipitation value for a consecutive target number of days.
[0013] Further, in some embodiments of the present application, determining the potential key sea temperature area based on the correlation calculation results and the significance test includes:
[0014] The target ocean area with high correlation and passing the significance test is determined as the potential key sea temperature area.
[0015] Further, in some embodiments of the present application, in the climatological sea temperature global distribution field, the sea temperature difference value is superimposed for the potential key sea temperature area to construct a sea temperature disturbance field, and the global atmospheric model is driven by the sea temperature disturbance field to conduct a sea temperature disturbance test, including:
[0016] The sea temperature difference in the potential key sea temperature zone corresponding to the positive abnormal year and the negative abnormal year of the cumulative number of days when continuous low-temperature rain and snow events occur in the target area is used as the sea temperature difference value.
[0017] Further, in some embodiments of the present application, the number of the potential critical sea temperature zones is multiple;
[0018] In the climatological sea temperature global distribution field, the sea temperature difference value is superimposed for the potential key sea temperature area to construct the sea temperature disturbance field, including:
[0019] For each potential key sea temperature area, the sea temperature difference value is superimposed on the climatological sea temperature global distribution field for the potential key sea temperature area to construct a sea temperature disturbance field for the potential key sea temperature area.
[0020] Furthermore, in some embodiments of the present application, the test result data includes temperature and precipitation output by the global atmospheric model.
[0021] Further, in some embodiments of the present application, the test result data based on the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test, determining the key sea temperature area that affects the target area to produce continuous low-temperature rain and snow from the potential key sea temperature areas, includes:
[0022] Based on the corresponding test result data, the cumulative number of days of continuous low-temperature rain and snow events corresponding to the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test are calculated respectively;
[0023] By calculating the difference in the cumulative number of days of persistent low-temperature rain and snow events corresponding to the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test, the impact of each potential key sea temperature zone on the occurrence of persistent low-temperature rain and snow in the target area is determined, and the key sea temperature zone is determined from among the potential key sea temperature zones.
[0024] Furthermore, in some embodiments of the present application, it also includes:
[0025] Statistical analysis methods are used to determine whether the impact of each potential key sea temperature area on the occurrence of persistent low-temperature rain and snow in the target area passes the significance test.
[0026] In a second aspect, the present application provides a device for identifying a key sea temperature zone affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow, comprising:
[0027] The first determination module is used to determine the cumulative number of days in which continuous low-temperature rain and snow events occur in the target area during the target period;
[0028] The second determination module is used to calculate the correlation between the cumulative number of days in which the target area has continuous low-temperature rain and snow events during the target period and the sea temperature of the target ocean area on an interannual scale, and determine the potential key sea temperature area based on the correlation calculation results and significance test;
[0029] The test module is used to construct a climatological sea temperature global distribution field based on the observed sea temperature data, and drive the global atmospheric model through the climatological sea temperature global distribution field to conduct a benchmark test; and superimpose the sea temperature difference value for the potential key sea temperature area in the climatological sea temperature global distribution field to construct a sea temperature disturbance field, and drive the global atmospheric model through the sea temperature disturbance field to conduct a sea temperature disturbance test;
[0030] The third determination module is used to determine the key sea temperature area that affects the target area to produce continuous low-temperature rain and snow from the potential key sea temperature areas based on the test result data of the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test.
[0031] In a third aspect, the present application provides a device for identifying a key sea temperature zone affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow, including a processor and a memory, wherein the processor is connected to the memory:
[0032] Wherein, the processor is used to call and execute the program stored in the memory;
[0033] The memory is used to store the program, and the program is at least used to execute the above-mentioned method for identifying the key sea temperature area affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow.
[0034] The present invention relates to the field of meteorological technology, and specifically discloses a method and related equipment for identifying a key sea temperature zone that affects persistent low-temperature rain and snow, the method comprising: determining the cumulative number of days that persistent low-temperature rain and snow events occur in a target area during a target period; calculating the correlation between the cumulative number of days that persistent low-temperature rain and snow events occur in the target area during the target period and the sea temperature of the target ocean area on an interannual scale, and determining the potential key sea temperature zone based on the correlation calculation result and the significance test; constructing a climatological sea temperature global distribution field based on the observed sea temperature data, and driving the global atmospheric model through the climatological sea temperature global distribution field to conduct a benchmark test; in the climatological sea temperature global distribution field, superimposing sea temperature difference values for potential key sea temperature zones to construct a sea temperature disturbance field, and driving the global atmospheric model through the sea temperature disturbance field to conduct a sea temperature disturbance test; based on the test result data of the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test, determining the key sea temperature zone that affects the target area to produce persistent low-temperature rain and snow from the potential key sea temperature zone. In this way, the influence of sea temperatures in different sea temperature zones on persistent low-temperature rain and snow events in the target area can be quantified, and the recognition effect can be improved. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0035] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.
[0036] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for identifying key sea temperature areas affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow provided by an embodiment of the present invention.
[0037] Figure 2 This is a spatial distribution map of the SST field regressed from the time series of the cumulative number of days of persistent low-temperature rain and snow events in southern my country as an example.
[0038] Figure 3 The method for identifying key sea temperature areas affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow provided by an embodiment of the present invention is used to obtain data from southern my country.
[0039] Figure 4 It is a schematic diagram of the structure of a device for identifying a key sea temperature zone affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow provided by an embodiment of the present invention.
[0040] Figure 5 It is a schematic diagram of the structure of a device for identifying key sea temperature areas affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0041] To make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solution of the present invention will be described in detail below. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other implementation methods obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work belong to the scope of protection of the present invention.
[0042] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for identifying key sea temperature areas affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1 , this embodiment may include the following steps:
[0043] S101. Determine the cumulative number of days in which continuous low-temperature rain and snow events occur in the target area during the target period.
[0044] Specifically, the accumulated days and accumulated number of occurrences of persistent low-temperature rain and snow events in the target area during the target period can be determined through the collected site data. The following is a detailed introduction to the method for identifying the key sea temperature zones affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow provided by this application, taking southern my country as the target area. It can be understood that the method for identifying the key sea temperature zones affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow provided by this application can also take other areas as target areas.
[0045] Taking southern my country as the target area, the daily temperature and precipitation station data across the country can be used to calculate the continuous low temperature rain and snow events that occurred from 1961 to 2018 (i.e. the target period), and then the cumulative number of days and cumulative number of occurrences of continuous low temperature rain and snow events in southern my country can be counted. It should be noted that the daily temperature and precipitation station data across the country used above are only because they are easy to obtain and have data for southern my country.
[0046] It should be noted that in this application, the definition of a continuous low temperature rain and snow event is an event in which the average temperature on the day is lower than the target temperature value and the precipitation value on the day is greater than the target precipitation value for the consecutive target days. For example, taking southern my country as an example: first, the daily 2-meter temperature in the target period such as southern my country (95°E-125°E; 15°E-30°E) from 1961 to 2018 is sorted in ascending order, and the temperature value corresponding to the 5% percentile is taken as the temperature threshold, i.e., the target temperature value; then the day with the daily average temperature lower than this threshold is recorded as a low temperature day, and at the same time, it is determined whether the precipitation value on that day is greater than the target precipitation value, such as 0.1mm / day, and then the low temperature rain and snow event is determined based on the temperature being lower than the target temperature value and precipitation occurring at the same time (and the precipitation value on that day is greater than the target precipitation value) to determine the low temperature rain and snow event, and if the number of days of the low temperature rain and snow event reaches the target number of days, such as 4 days or more, it is defined as a continuous low temperature rain and snow event.
[0047] S102. Calculate the correlation between the cumulative number of days with continuous low-temperature rain and snow events in the target area during the target period and the sea temperature in the target ocean area on an interannual scale, and determine the potential key sea temperature area based on the correlation calculation results and significance test.
[0048] Specifically, the correlation between the cumulative number of days of continuous low-temperature rain and snow events occurring in target areas such as southern my country and the sea temperature in different target ocean areas on an interannual scale is calculated, and areas with high correlation and passing significance tests are defined as potential key sea temperature areas.
[0049] Figure 2 Taking southern my country as an example, the time series of the cumulative number of days of persistent low-temperature rain and snow events is regressed to the spatial distribution map of the sea temperature field. The dotted area in the red frame is the one that passes the 95% confidence level significance test. Figure 2 It can be seen that for southern my country, based on the correlation calculation results and significance test, the potential key SST areas can include the South my country Sea (SCS) and the equatorial central and eastern Pacific (CEP).
[0050] S103. Construct a climatological sea temperature global distribution field based on observed sea temperature data, and drive the global atmospheric model through the climatological sea temperature global distribution field to conduct benchmark tests.
[0051] S104. In the global distribution field of climatological sea temperature, the sea temperature difference values are superimposed for potential key sea temperature areas to construct a sea temperature disturbance field, and the global atmospheric model is driven by the sea temperature disturbance field to conduct a sea temperature disturbance experiment.
[0052] S105. Based on the test result data of the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test, determine the key sea temperature areas that affect the target area to produce continuous low-temperature rain and snow from the potential key sea temperature areas.
[0053] Specifically, a climatological global sea temperature distribution field can be constructed based on the observed sea temperature data to drive the preset global atmospheric model to conduct basic experiments; and the sea temperature difference values can be superimposed on the potential key sea temperature areas in the climatological global sea temperature distribution field to construct a sea temperature disturbance field, and the global atmospheric model can be driven by the sea temperature disturbance field to conduct sea temperature disturbance experiments, so as to obtain test result data corresponding to the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance experiment, such as temperature and precipitation data, so as to obtain the impact of the sea temperature in the potential key sea temperature area on the target area to produce continuous low-temperature rain and snow, thereby more accurately determining the key sea temperature area that affects the target area to produce continuous low-temperature rain and snow.
[0054] For example, the observed sea temperature data is used to construct the global distribution field of climatological sea temperature from 1961 to 2018. The preset global atmospheric model is driven and run for 31 years to output test result data of meteorological variables including daily 2-meter temperature and precipitation. Then, the respective test result data are used to calculate the cumulative number of days and the cumulative number of occurrences of continuous low-temperature rain and snow events in the southern region, so as to determine the impact of sea temperature changes in potential key sea temperature areas on the occurrence of continuous low-temperature rain and snow in southern my country, and thus determine the key sea temperature areas with great influence among the potential key sea temperature areas.
[0055] The method for identifying the key sea temperature zone affecting persistent low temperature rain and snow of the present invention is as follows: by determining the cumulative number of days in which persistent low temperature rain and snow events occur in the target area during the target period; calculating the correlation between the cumulative number of days in which persistent low temperature rain and snow events occur in the target area during the target period and the sea temperature of the target ocean area on an interannual scale, and determining the potential key sea temperature zone based on the correlation calculation result and the significance test; constructing a climatological sea temperature global distribution field based on the observed sea temperature data, and driving the global atmospheric model through the climatological sea temperature global distribution field to conduct a benchmark test; in the climatological sea temperature global distribution field, superimposing the sea temperature difference value for the potential key sea temperature zone to construct a sea temperature disturbance field, and driving the global atmospheric model through the sea temperature disturbance field to conduct a sea temperature disturbance test; based on the test result data of the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test, determining the key sea temperature zone that affects the target area to produce persistent low temperature rain and snow from the potential key sea temperature zone. In this way, the influence of the sea temperature in different sea temperature zones on the persistent low temperature rain and snow events in the target area can be quantified, and the recognition effect can be improved.
[0056] Furthermore, in some embodiments of the present application, there are multiple potential key sea temperature zones. On this basis, in the climatological sea temperature global distribution field, sea temperature difference values are superimposed for the potential key sea temperature zones to construct a sea temperature disturbance field, including: for each potential key sea temperature zone, in the climatological sea temperature global distribution field, sea temperature difference values are superimposed for the potential key sea temperature zone to construct a sea temperature disturbance field for the potential key sea temperature zone.
[0057] Specifically, for each potential key SST area (for example, for the target area in southern my country, the potential key SST area can include the South my country Sea and the equatorial central and eastern Pacific), the SST difference between the positive anomaly year and the negative anomaly year of the cumulative number of days of persistent low-temperature rain and snow events in the target area can be calculated based on the observed data of persistent low-temperature rain and snow events (such as the cumulative number of days and the cumulative number of occurrences) and the SST data, and the SST difference value can be obtained; then, in the global distribution field of the climatological SST of the above-mentioned benchmark test, the above-mentioned SST difference value is superimposed in the potential SST area to construct the SST disturbance field. In this way, for multiple potential key SST areas in a target area, multiple SST disturbance fields corresponding to each potential key SST area can be obtained, and SST disturbance tests can be carried out separately to determine the impact of each potential key SST area on the occurrence of persistent low-temperature rain and snow events in the target area.
[0058] It should be noted that the positive abnormal years for the cumulative number of days of continuous low temperature rain and snow events in the above-mentioned target area refer to years with more cumulative days than ordinary years or the average cumulative number of days, and the negative abnormal years refer to years with less cumulative days than ordinary years or the average cumulative number of days.
[0059] In addition, in this field, the climatological sea temperature global distribution field is the climatological sea temperature distribution for the global ocean area over a period of time. For example, in the above-mentioned embodiment of the present application, the climatological sea temperature global distribution field from 1961 to 2018 constructed based on the observed sea temperature data may be cyclic data with a one-year cycle constructed with average data, that is, including the sea temperatures of 12 months in each ocean area, wherein the sea temperature of each month is obtained by the average value of the corresponding month of the ocean area from 1961 to 2018.
[0060] On this basis, for any potential key sea temperature zone, when constructing the sea temperature disturbance field, after determining the positive and negative abnormal years for the cumulative number of days when continuous low-temperature rain and snow events occur in the target area (both positive and negative abnormal years can include multiple), the sea temperature difference value of the corresponding month can be determined based on the average value of the sea temperature of the corresponding month in the positive and negative abnormal years of the potential key sea temperature zone, and then superimposed on the potential key sea temperature zone in the global distribution field of the climatological sea temperature of the above-mentioned benchmark test, so as to obtain the sea temperature disturbance field corresponding to the potential key sea temperature zone, so as to conduct a sea temperature disturbance test on the potential key sea temperature zone.
[0061] On this basis, by calculating the difference in the cumulative number of days of persistent low temperature rain and snow events corresponding to the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test, the influence of each potential key sea temperature zone on the occurrence of persistent low temperature rain and snow in the target area is determined, and the key sea temperature zone is determined from among the potential key sea temperature zones.
[0062] For example, based on the simulation results from December to February of the following year obtained based on the benchmark test and the sea temperature perturbation test, that is, the test result data, the cumulative number of days of persistent low temperature rain and snow events in each test is calculated; by comparing the difference in the cumulative number of days of persistent low temperature rain and snow events in the target area of the sea temperature perturbation test and the benchmark test, the respective influences of different potential key sea temperature zones are obtained, and then statistical analysis methods are used to determine whether the influence of each sea temperature zone passes the significance test, and the potential key sea temperature zones with large influence and that pass the test are identified as the key sea temperature zones that affect the persistent low temperature rain and snow in the target area.
[0063] Figure 3 The method for identifying the key sea temperature area affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow provided by the embodiment of the present invention is based on the data obtained in southern my country, namely the data obtained by the benchmark test (REF) and two groups of sea temperature disturbance tests (CEP and SCS), among which, Figure 3 In the figure, (a)-(c) are the cumulative days of continuous low-temperature rain and snow events, (d)-(f) are the cumulative number of times, (g)-(i) are the temperature intensity, i.e., the air temperature, and (j)-(l) are the precipitation intensity, i.e., the spatial distribution of precipitation. Among them, (a)(d)(g)(j) are the characteristics of each physical quantity in the benchmark test, (b)(e)(h)(k) are the differences between the characteristics of each physical quantity in the CEP test and the physical quantity in the benchmark test, and (c)(f)(i)(l) are the differences between the characteristics of each physical quantity in the SCS test and the physical quantity in the benchmark test.
[0064] From the above data and climate and geography knowledge, we can know that there are large differences in precipitation and temperature changes caused by the SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific and the South China Sea. The low-level wind field anomalies corresponding to the SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific are conducive to the southward movement of cold air from the middle and high latitudes, and are conducive to the westward transportation of water vapor to the Bay of Bengal and further northeastward transportation to southern my country, which significantly increases the intensity, frequency, cooling and precipitation intensity of persistent low-temperature rain and snow events in southern my country. In contrast, the SST anomaly in the South China Sea is not conducive to the southward movement of cold air to southwest my country, but a certain amount of cold air is transported to southeast my country, which makes the intensity, frequency, cooling and precipitation intensity of persistent low-temperature rain and snow events in southern my country have east-west reverse variation characteristics.
[0065] The method provided in this application for identifying key sea temperature zones that affect persistent low temperature rain and snow quantifies the impact of sea temperatures in different sea temperature zones on persistent low temperature rain and snow events in the target area through numerical simulation (i.e., global atmospheric model) experiments. This can more accurately identify key sea temperature zones for persistent low temperature rain and snow events in the target area, and help to formulate more effective prevention strategies for persistent low temperature rain and snow events.
[0066] Based on the same inventive concept, the present application also provides a device for identifying key sea temperature areas that affect persistent low-temperature rain and snow. Figure 4is a schematic diagram of the structure of a device for identifying a key sea temperature zone affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow provided by an embodiment of the present invention, such as Figure 4 As shown, the device comprises:
[0067] The first determination module 11 is used to determine the cumulative number of days when continuous low-temperature rain and snow events occur in the target area during the target period; the second determination module 12 is used to calculate the correlation between the cumulative number of days when continuous low-temperature rain and snow events occur in the target area during the target period and the sea temperature of the target ocean area on the interannual scale, and determine the potential key sea temperature area based on the correlation calculation results and significance test; the test module 13 is used to construct a climatological sea temperature global distribution field based on the observed sea temperature data, and drive the global atmospheric model through the climatological sea temperature global distribution field to conduct a benchmark test; and in the climatological sea temperature global distribution field, superimpose sea temperature difference values for potential key sea temperature areas to construct a sea temperature disturbance field, and drive the global atmospheric model through the sea temperature disturbance field to conduct a sea temperature disturbance test; the third determination module 14 is used to determine the key sea temperature area that affects the generation of continuous low-temperature rain and snow in the target area from the potential key sea temperature areas based on the test result data of the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test.
[0068] Regarding the device in the above embodiment, the specific manner in which each module performs operations has been described in detail in the embodiment of the method, and will not be elaborated here.
[0069] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a device for identifying key sea temperature areas that affect persistent low-temperature rain and snow, used to implement the above method embodiment. Figure 5 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a device for identifying a key sea temperature zone affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow provided by an embodiment of the present invention, such as Figure 5 As shown, the device for identifying the key sea temperature zone affecting persistent low temperature rain and snow in this embodiment includes a processor 21 and a memory 22, and the processor 21 is connected to the memory 22. The processor 21 is used to call and execute the program stored in the memory 22; the memory 22 is used to store the program, and the program is at least used to execute the method for identifying the key sea temperature zone affecting persistent low temperature rain and snow in the above embodiment.
[0070] The specific implementation scheme of the device for identifying the key sea temperature zone affecting persistent low temperature rain and snow provided in the embodiment of the present application can refer to the implementation scheme of the method for identifying the key sea temperature zone affecting persistent low temperature rain and snow in any of the above embodiments, which will not be repeated here.
[0071] It can be understood that the same or similar parts of the above embodiments can be referenced to each other, and the contents not described in detail in some embodiments can refer to the same or similar contents in other embodiments.
[0072] It should be noted that, in the description of the present invention, the terms "first", "second", etc. are only used for descriptive purposes and cannot be understood as indicating or implying relative importance. In addition, in the description of the present invention, unless otherwise specified, the meaning of "plurality" refers to at least two.
[0073] Any process or method description in a flowchart or otherwise described herein may be understood to represent a module, segment or portion of code that includes one or more executable instructions for implementing the steps of a specific logical function or process, and the scope of the preferred embodiments of the present invention includes alternative implementations in which functions may not be performed in the order shown or discussed, including performing functions in a substantially simultaneous manner or in the reverse order depending on the functions involved, which should be understood by those skilled in the art to which the embodiments of the present invention belong.
[0074] It should be understood that the various parts of the present invention can be implemented by hardware, software, firmware or a combination thereof. In the above-mentioned embodiments, a plurality of steps or methods can be implemented by software or firmware stored in a memory and executed by a suitable instruction execution system. For example, if implemented by hardware, as in another embodiment, it can be implemented by any one of the following technologies known in the art or their combination: a discrete logic circuit having a logic gate circuit for implementing a logic function for a data signal, a dedicated integrated circuit having a suitable combination of logic gate circuits, a programmable gate array (PGA), a field programmable gate array (FPGA), etc.
[0075] A person skilled in the art may understand that all or part of the steps in the method for implementing the above-mentioned embodiment may be completed by instructing related hardware through a program, and the program may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, which, when executed, includes one or a combination of the steps of the method embodiment.
[0076] In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present invention may be integrated into a processing module, or each unit may exist physically separately, or two or more units may be integrated into one module. The above-mentioned integrated module may be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of a software functional module. If the integrated module is implemented in the form of a software functional module and sold or used as an independent product, it may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium.
[0077] The storage medium mentioned above can be a read-only memory, a magnetic disk or an optical disk, etc.
[0078] In the description of this specification, the description with reference to the terms "one embodiment", "some embodiments", "examples", "specific examples", or "some examples" means that the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described in conjunction with the embodiment or example are included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the schematic representation of the above terms does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Moreover, the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described may be combined in any one or more embodiments or examples in a suitable manner.
[0079] Although the embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it is to be understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and are not to be construed as limitations of the present invention. A person skilled in the art may change, modify, replace and vary the above embodiments within the scope of the present invention.
Claims
1. A method for identifying key sea temperature areas affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow, characterized in that: include: Determine the cumulative number of days in which persistent low-temperature rain and snow events occur in the target area during the target period; Calculate the correlation between the cumulative number of days with persistent low-temperature rain and snow events in the target area during the target period and the sea temperature in the target ocean area on an interannual scale, and determine the potential key sea temperature area based on the correlation calculation results and significance test; Based on the observed sea temperature data, a climatological sea temperature global distribution field is constructed, and a global atmospheric model is driven by the climatological sea temperature global distribution field to conduct a benchmark test; In the climatological sea temperature global distribution field, sea temperature difference values are superimposed for the potential key sea temperature area to construct a sea temperature disturbance field, and the global atmospheric model is driven by the sea temperature disturbance field to conduct a sea temperature disturbance test; Based on the test result data of the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test, the key sea temperature area that affects the target area to produce continuous low-temperature rain and snow is determined from the potential key sea temperature areas.
2. The method for identifying the key sea temperature area affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow according to claim 1, characterized in that: The continuous low temperature rain and snow event is an event in which the average temperature on the day is lower than the target temperature value and the precipitation value on the day is greater than the target precipitation value for a consecutive number of target days.
3. The method for identifying the key sea temperature area affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow according to claim 1, characterized in that: The potential key SST areas are determined based on the correlation calculation results and significance test, including: The target ocean area with high correlation and passing the significance test is determined as the potential key sea temperature area.
4. The method for identifying the key sea temperature area affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow according to claim 1, characterized in that: In the climatological sea temperature global distribution field, the sea temperature difference value is superimposed for the potential key sea temperature area to construct a sea temperature disturbance field, and the global atmospheric model is driven by the sea temperature disturbance field to conduct a sea temperature disturbance test, including: The sea temperature difference in the potential key sea temperature zone corresponding to the positive abnormal year and the negative abnormal year of the cumulative number of days when continuous low-temperature rain and snow events occur in the target area is used as the sea temperature difference value.
5. The method for identifying the key sea temperature area affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow according to claim 1, characterized in that: The number of the potential critical sea temperature areas is multiple; In the climatological sea temperature global distribution field, the sea temperature difference value is superimposed for the potential key sea temperature area to construct the sea temperature disturbance field, including: For each potential key sea temperature area, the sea temperature difference value is superimposed on the climatological sea temperature global distribution field for the potential key sea temperature area to construct a sea temperature disturbance field for the potential key sea temperature area.
6. The method for identifying the key sea temperature area affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow according to claim 5, characterized in that: The test result data include temperature and precipitation output by the global atmospheric model.
7. The method for identifying the key sea temperature area affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow according to claim 6, characterized in that: The test result data based on the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test, determining the key sea temperature area that affects the target area to produce persistent low-temperature rain and snow from the potential key sea temperature areas, includes: Based on the corresponding test result data, the cumulative number of days of continuous low-temperature rain and snow events corresponding to the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test are calculated respectively; By calculating the difference in the cumulative number of days of persistent low-temperature rain and snow events corresponding to the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test, the impact of each potential key sea temperature zone on the occurrence of persistent low-temperature rain and snow in the target area is determined, and the key sea temperature zone is determined from among the potential key sea temperature zones.
8. The method for identifying the key sea temperature area affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow according to claim 7, characterized in that: Also includes: Statistical analysis methods are used to determine whether the impact of each potential key sea temperature area on the occurrence of persistent low-temperature rain and snow in the target area passes the significance test.
9. A device for identifying key sea temperature areas affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow, characterized in that: include: The first determination module is used to determine the cumulative number of days in which continuous low-temperature rain and snow events occur in the target area during the target period; The second determination module is used to calculate the correlation between the cumulative number of days in which the target area has continuous low-temperature rain and snow events during the target period and the sea temperature of the target ocean area on an interannual scale, and determine the potential key sea temperature area based on the correlation calculation results and significance test; The test module is used to construct a climatological sea temperature global distribution field based on the observed sea temperature data, and drive the global atmospheric model through the climatological sea temperature global distribution field to conduct a benchmark test; and superimpose the sea temperature difference value for the potential key sea temperature area in the climatological sea temperature global distribution field to construct a sea temperature disturbance field, and drive the global atmospheric model through the sea temperature disturbance field to conduct a sea temperature disturbance test; The third determination module is used to determine the key sea temperature area that affects the target area to produce continuous low-temperature rain and snow from the potential key sea temperature areas based on the test result data of the benchmark test and the sea temperature disturbance test.
10. A device for identifying key sea temperature areas affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow, characterized in that: The invention comprises a processor and a memory, wherein the processor is connected to the memory: Wherein, the processor is used to call and execute the program stored in the memory; The memory is used to store the program, and the program is used at least to execute the method for identifying the key sea temperature area affecting persistent low-temperature rain and snow as described in any one of claims 1-8.