User loss early warning method and system
By setting the churn analysis cycle and repurchase analysis interval, automatically monitoring the user's flight ticket purchase behavior, and performing retention operations according to the user value level, the problem of difficult user churn in the existing technology is solved, and efficient user churn warning and retention effects are achieved.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202411773184.5
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2024-12-04
- Publication Date
- 2025-03-25
AI Technical Summary
The existing technology lacks effective automation systems to early warning of user loss and implement retention measures, which makes it difficult to capture and respond to user loss in a timely manner.
By setting the churn analysis cycle and repurchase analysis interval, the user's flight ticket purchase success record is obtained, the user's churn time threshold is calculated, and user behavior is automatically monitored during the churn monitoring cycle. When the user does not record the successful flight ticket purchase during the churn monitoring cycle, the user data is transmitted to the churn user warning pool and the retention operation is performed according to the user value level.
Accurate prediction and timely monitoring of user churn is achieved, the accuracy of user churn warning is improved, manual intervention is reduced, retention efficiency is improved, user churn rate is reduced, and user retention rate is increased.
Smart Images
Figure CN119693029A_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of user management, and in particular to a user loss early warning method and system. Background Art
[0002] With the rapid development of Internet business, the growth of user base has brought about the problem of user churn. User churn not only affects the market share of the business, but may also lead to a reduction in revenue. Although enterprises have realized the seriousness of user churn, there is currently a lack of an effective automated system in the market to warn of user churn and implement retention measures. Existing user management strategies often rely on manual analysis and judgment, which is not only inefficient, but also difficult to capture the signs of user churn in a timely manner. Summary of the invention
[0003] In order to solve the technical problems existing in the background technology, the present invention proposes a user churn early warning method and system.
[0004] The present invention provides a user churn early warning method, comprising:
[0005] Obtain the churn analysis cycle and the preset repurchase analysis interval, and determine the time node and the churn analysis interval according to the current time, the churn analysis cycle and the preset repurchase analysis interval;
[0006] Obtain all successful flight ticket purchase records of the user within the churn analysis interval, and extract the first type of successful flight ticket purchase records whose purchase time is closest to the time node from all successful flight ticket purchase records;
[0007] Calculate the time difference between the purchase time and the time node of the successful purchase record of the first type of flight ticket, and use the time difference as the time threshold of user churn of the user;
[0008] After the user successfully purchases a flight ticket, churn monitoring is started with a time threshold as the churn monitoring cycle;
[0009] When no successful flight ticket purchase record of the user is obtained within the churn monitoring period, the user data corresponding to the user is transmitted to a preset churn user warning pool.
[0010] Preferably, it also includes: obtaining the value level corresponding to each user in the preset churn user warning pool one by one, and performing retention operations on the users in the churn user warning pool according to the preset retention strategy and the value level corresponding to the user.
[0011] Preferably, the preset retention strategy specifically includes:
[0012] Trigger push of multiple retention content corresponding to the user's corresponding value level;
[0013] After receiving the user's first click on the retention content, the corresponding discounts are pushed to the user in batches within a preset time period until the user places an order or the preset retention period is reached, and the retention operation is ended.
[0014] Preferably, determining the time node and the churn analysis interval according to the current time, the churn analysis cycle and the preset repurchase analysis interval specifically includes:
[0015] Taking the current time as the starting point, the difference between the calculated current time and the preset repurchase analysis interval is used as the time node;
[0016] The interval before the time node in the churn analysis cycle is used as the churn analysis interval.
[0017] Preferably, it also includes:
[0018] After the retention operation is performed, if a successful ticket purchase record of the corresponding user is received within a preset time period, the user data corresponding to the user is removed from the preset churn user warning pool, and a new churn monitoring cycle is obtained again.
[0019] Preferably, it also includes:
[0020] After the retention operation is performed, if no successful ticket purchase record of the corresponding user is received within the preset time period, the user data corresponding to the user is transferred to the preset user churn pool.
[0021] The present invention provides a user churn early warning system, comprising:
[0022] The cycle setting module is used to obtain the churn analysis cycle and the preset repurchase analysis interval, and determine the time node and the churn analysis interval according to the current time, the churn analysis cycle and the preset repurchase analysis interval;
[0023] A data acquisition module is used to acquire all successful flight ticket purchase records of users within the churn analysis interval, and extract the first type of successful flight ticket purchase records with the purchase time closest to the time node from all successful flight ticket purchase records;
[0024] A data processing module, used to calculate the time difference between the purchase time and the time node of the successful purchase record of the first type of flight ticket, and use the time difference as the time threshold of user churn of the user;
[0025] The data monitoring module is used to start churn monitoring with a time threshold as the churn monitoring cycle after the user successfully purchases the flight ticket;
[0026] The churn warning module is used to transmit the user data corresponding to the user to a preset churn user warning pool when no successful flight ticket purchase record of the user is obtained within the churn monitoring period.
[0027] Preferably, it also includes:
[0028] The retention module is used to obtain the value level corresponding to each user in the preset churn user warning pool one by one, and perform retention operations on the users in the churn user warning pool according to the preset retention strategy and the value level corresponding to the user.
[0029] In the present invention, the proposed user churn warning method and system can accurately predict the user churn time by setting the churn analysis cycle and the repurchase analysis interval, and effectively monitor and warn before the user churns. By automatically analyzing user behavior, the accuracy of user churn warning is improved. By automatically executing the retention strategy, manual intervention is reduced, the retention efficiency is improved, the user churn rate is reduced, and the user retention rate is increased. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0030] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of the work flow structure of a user churn early warning method proposed by the present invention;
[0031] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the structure of a churn analysis cycle of a user churn early warning method proposed by the present invention;
[0032] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the system architecture of a user churn early warning system proposed by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0033] Reference Figure 1-3 The present invention proposes a user churn early warning method, comprising:
[0034] S1. Obtain a churn analysis cycle and a preset repurchase analysis interval, and determine a time node and a churn analysis interval according to the current time, the churn analysis cycle, and the preset repurchase analysis interval.
[0035] In this embodiment, the time node and the churn analysis interval are determined according to the current time, the churn analysis cycle and the preset repurchase analysis interval, specifically including: taking the current time as the starting point, and taking the calculated difference between the current time and the preset repurchase analysis interval as the time node; taking the interval before the time node in the churn analysis cycle as the churn analysis interval.
[0036] S2. Obtain all the successful flight ticket purchase records of the user within the churn analysis interval, and extract the first type of successful flight ticket purchase records whose purchase time is closest to the time node from all the successful flight ticket purchase records.
[0037] S3. Calculate the time difference between the purchase time and the time node of the successful purchase record of the first type of flight ticket, and use the time difference as the time threshold of user churn of the user.
[0038] S4. After the user successfully purchases a flight ticket, churn monitoring is started with a time threshold as the churn monitoring period.
[0039] S5. When no successful flight ticket purchase record of the user is obtained within the churn monitoring period, the user data corresponding to the user is transmitted to a preset churn user warning pool.
[0040] In this embodiment, a churn warning pool is established, and data is calculated at zero o'clock every day. Users who meet the definition of churn are added to the warning pool, and then retention strategies are implemented for pre-churn users, and feedback from reached users is continuously paid attention to. For example: if the reached user returns within 30 days, the user is added to the ordinary user pool; if the reached user does not return within 30 days, the user is added to the churn pool, and the churn user recall strategy is implemented for the churn pool users.
[0041] S6. For the users in the preset churn user warning pool, the value levels corresponding to the users are obtained one by one, and retention operations are performed on the users in the churn user warning pool according to the preset retention strategy and the value levels corresponding to the users.
[0042] In this embodiment, the preset retention strategy specifically includes: triggering the push of corresponding multiple retention contents according to the user's corresponding value level; after receiving the user's first click on the retention content, pushing the corresponding discounts to the user in batches within a preset time period, until the user places an order or the preset retention period is reached, and then the retention operation is ended.
[0043] Specifically, the value level corresponding to the user can be formulated according to the actual situation of the business. We believe that the higher the income contributed by the user to the business, the higher the value of the user. Remove users with negative income, sort the remaining users by their contribution to the business, and use quartiles to determine the threshold of each user's value level; use the first quartile as the threshold of high-value users, and use the third quartile as the threshold of general-value users, and divide users into different value levels: high-value users, general-value users, and low-value users.
[0044] Specifically, differentiated retention strategies are formulated based on the user's value level. For high-value users, retention content is specifically high-value coupons or exclusive services; for average-value and low-value users, retention content is specifically relatively low-value coupons.
[0045] Specifically, in the process of pushing retention content, users need to be contacted multiple times, and different strategies are adopted based on the user feedback after each contact; for example, if the user contacted for the first time clicks on the retention content, the user will be given a discount coupon when contacted for the second time 3 days later. If the user does not receive the coupon, the user will be given a free threshold coupon when contacted for the third time 7 days later. The user will be reminded to sign in and receive the points reward when contacted for the fourth time 14 days later. , in order to further enhance user rights. The termination condition for contacting users is that the user places an order, receives a coupon, or the retention period reaches 14 days.
[0046] In this embodiment, it also includes: after executing the retention operation, if a successful ticket purchase record of the corresponding user is received within a preset time period, the user data corresponding to the user is removed from the preset churn user warning pool, and a new churn monitoring cycle is re-acquired; after executing the retention operation, if no successful ticket purchase record of the corresponding user is received within the preset time period, the user data corresponding to the user is transferred to the preset user churn pool.
[0047] Reference Figure 1-3 The present invention proposes a user churn early warning system, comprising:
[0048] The cycle setting module is used to obtain the churn analysis cycle and the preset repurchase analysis interval, and determine the time node and the churn analysis interval according to the current time, the churn analysis cycle and the preset repurchase analysis interval.
[0049] The data acquisition module is used to obtain all the successful flight ticket purchase records of the user within the churn analysis interval, and extract the first type of successful flight ticket purchase records with the purchase time closest to the time node from all the successful flight ticket purchase records.
[0050] The data processing module is used to calculate the time difference between the purchase time and the time node of the successful purchase record of the first type of flight ticket, and use the time difference as the time threshold of user churn of the user.
[0051] The data monitoring module is used to start churn monitoring with a time threshold as the churn monitoring period after the user successfully purchases a flight ticket.
[0052] The churn warning module is used to transmit the user data corresponding to the user to a preset churn user warning pool when no successful flight ticket purchase record of the user is obtained within the churn monitoring period.
[0053] The retention module is used to obtain the value level corresponding to each user in the preset churn user warning pool one by one, and perform retention operations on the users in the churn user warning pool according to the preset retention strategy and the value level corresponding to the user.
[0054] The above description is only a preferred specific implementation manner of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any technician familiar with the technical field can make equivalent replacements or changes according to the technical scheme and inventive concept of the present invention within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, which should be covered by the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims
1. A user churn early warning method, characterized in that: include: Obtain the churn analysis cycle and the preset repurchase analysis interval, and determine the time node and the churn analysis interval according to the current time, the churn analysis cycle and the preset repurchase analysis interval; Obtain all successful flight ticket purchase records of the user within the churn analysis interval, and extract the first type of successful flight ticket purchase records whose purchase time is closest to the time node from all successful flight ticket purchase records; Calculate the time difference between the purchase time and the time node of the successful purchase record of the first type of flight ticket, and use the time difference as the time threshold of user churn of the user; After the user successfully purchases a flight ticket, churn monitoring is started with a time threshold as the churn monitoring cycle; When no successful flight ticket purchase record of the user is obtained within the churn monitoring period, the user data corresponding to the user is transmitted to a preset churn user warning pool.
2. The user churn early warning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Also includes: For the users in the preset churn user warning pool, the value levels corresponding to the users are obtained one by one, and retention operations are performed on the users in the churn user warning pool according to the preset retention strategies and the value levels corresponding to the users.
3. The user churn warning method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The preset retention strategy specifically includes: Trigger push of multiple retention content corresponding to the user's corresponding value level; After receiving the user's first click on the retention content, the corresponding discounts are pushed to the user in batches within a preset time period until the user places an order or the preset retention period is reached, and the retention operation is ended.
4. The user churn early warning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Determining the time node and the churn analysis interval according to the current time, the churn analysis cycle, and the preset repurchase analysis interval specifically includes: Taking the current time as the starting point, the difference between the calculated current time and the preset repurchase analysis interval is used as the time node; The interval before the time node in the churn analysis cycle is used as the churn analysis interval.
5. The user churn early warning method according to claim 2, characterized in that: Also includes: After the retention operation is performed, if a successful ticket purchase record of the corresponding user is received within a preset time period, the user data corresponding to the user is removed from the preset churn user warning pool, and a new churn monitoring cycle is obtained again.
6. The user churn early warning method according to claim 2, characterized in that: Also includes: After the retention operation is performed, if no successful ticket purchase record of the corresponding user is received within the preset time period, the user data corresponding to the user is transferred to the preset user churn pool.
7. A user churn warning system, characterized in that: include: The cycle setting module is used to obtain the churn analysis cycle and the preset repurchase analysis interval, and determine the time node and the churn analysis interval according to the current time, the churn analysis cycle and the preset repurchase analysis interval; A data acquisition module is used to acquire all successful flight ticket purchase records of users within the churn analysis interval, and extract the first type of successful flight ticket purchase records with the purchase time closest to the time node from all successful flight ticket purchase records; A data processing module, used to calculate the time difference between the purchase time and the time node of the successful purchase record of the first type of flight ticket, and use the time difference as the time threshold of user churn of the user; The data monitoring module is used to start churn monitoring with a time threshold as the churn monitoring cycle after the user successfully purchases the flight ticket; The churn warning module is used to transmit the user data corresponding to the user to a preset churn user warning pool when no successful flight ticket purchase record of the user is obtained within the churn monitoring period.
8. The user churn warning system according to claim 7, characterized in that: Also includes: The retention module is used to obtain the value level corresponding to each user in the preset churn user warning pool one by one, and perform retention operations on the users in the churn user warning pool according to the preset retention strategy and the value level corresponding to the user.