Project economic risk dynamic supervision method based on contract mode

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of engineering project economic dynamic management, in particular to a project economic risk dynamic supervision method based on a contract mode. According to the scheme, the project economic risk is dynamically supervised, real-time collection, standardized processing, conversion and analysis of business data and financial data are realized, and the automation level and accuracy of project management are effectively improved. Potential economic risks such as fund transfer excess, project progress abnormity and fund chain fracture risks can be found and warned in time by monitoring key indexes such as fund outflow rate and project progress. In addition, the scheme also provides targeted analysis and regulation measures, including generation of an analysis report, regulation of project progress, setting of a balance point and the like, so as to ensure stable operation of the project. The project economic risk dynamic supervision method based on the contract mode not only enhances the fund management capability of the project, but also improves the overall operation efficiency and risk prevention and control level of the project.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of dynamic economic management of engineering projects, and in particular to a method for dynamic supervision of project economic risks based on a contracting model. Background Art

[0002] At present, after construction companies in the construction industry win the bid for engineering projects, they usually hand over the project to the project manager for implementation and management in the form of project contracting, and the company will then extract the corresponding management fee from the engineering project. In the contracting process, the biggest management difficulty for the company lies in the prevention and control of profit and loss risks, cash flow risks and investment risks. In order to ensure the continuous and stable operation of the project, the company usually requires the contractor to pay self-raised funds as project receipts to reduce the company's own project contracting risks. For the project itself, the contractor's self-raised funds are external funds and need to be returned. Therefore, companies often treat self-raised funds as project debts. This way of returning the contractor's self-raised funds has great hidden dangers for the company. Improper handling will lead to the risk of a vicious cycle such as the project being too big to be dropped.

[0003] In addition, in terms of capital flow and project progress control, traditional project management methods often rely on post-audit and evaluation, which is not only inefficient, but also difficult to detect and respond to potential economic risks in a timely manner. With the development of information technology, more and more companies are beginning to seek more efficient and dynamic project supervision methods to achieve real-time monitoring and management of project economic risks. Summary of the invention

[0004] The technical problem solved by the present invention is to provide a dynamic supervision platform and method for project economic risks based on a contracting model, so as to solve the problem that traditional project management methods are overly dependent on post-audit and evaluation, are inefficient, and have difficulty in timely discovering and responding to potential economic risks.

[0005] The basic solution provided by the present invention is a method for dynamic supervision of project economic risks based on a contracting model, comprising the following steps:

[0006] S1: Collect business data and financial data; the business data includes project expected cost data, and the financial data includes collection data and payment data;

[0007] S2: Combined with financial specifications, based on data format, data type, data content and corresponding preset range, it determines whether the collected data complies with the specifications and issues an alarm for non-standard data; if the alarm information is not processed, the next step of automatic processing of business data and financial data cannot be carried out;

[0008] S3: Convert the business data and financial data matched based on financial specifications into three statements of information: balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement;

[0009] S4: Divide project types according to project scale and project cycle duration; and analyze the capital outflow rate of the three tables of information in different project types in historical data at each project stage;

[0010] S5: When the capital outflow rate exceeds the preset change range of this stage, the capital change is determined to be abnormal, the project capital flow is analyzed and regulated, and the profit data pool, capital data pool and project equity data pool are updated according to the preset balance relationship, integrating business data and financial data into engineering management data.

[0011] Further, the analysis and regulation in S5 includes the steps of:

[0012] S501: Compare the deviation value between the actual fund transfer time and the corresponding fund outflow time in the three-table information in this stage with the preset deviation threshold value. When the deviation value reaches the deviation threshold value, it is determined that the fund transfer record is unqualified and an analysis report is generated and sent to the management personnel;

[0013] S502: comparing the actual funds mobilized in the current phase with a preset funds mobilization threshold, and determining that the funds are over-mobilized when the actual funds mobilized reach the funds mobilization threshold;

[0014] S503: Compare the engineering progress of the stage with the historical engineering progress of the project type at the stage to obtain an engineering progress deviation value; when the engineering progress is lower than the preset engineering progress and the engineering progress deviation reaches the preset progress deviation threshold, it is determined that the engineering progress is low; when the engineering progress is higher than the preset engineering progress and the engineering progress deviation reaches the preset progress deviation threshold, it is determined that the engineering progress is high;

[0015] S504: Generate a corresponding analysis report based on the determination result and send it to the management personnel.

[0016] Further, the S503 includes:

[0017] Project progress calculation: collect subcontract measurement data, obtain the completed project volume and the to-be-completed project volume according to the completion status of the project volume of each subcontract contract; obtain the project progress from the ratio of the completed project volume to the total project volume;

[0018] Deviation calculation: There is a preset project progress, which is the average progress of this type of project at the same stage. The current stage's project progress is compared with the preset project progress, and the progress deviation between the two is calculated. If the current project's project progress is lower than the historical average, it is considered to have a negative deviation; otherwise, it is a positive deviation.

[0019] Threshold judgment: When the negative deviation reaches the preset progress deviation threshold, it is judged that the project progress is low; when the positive deviation reaches the preset progress deviation threshold, it is judged that the project progress is high;

[0020] Fund analysis: Calculate the ratio of fund inflow and outflow. When the project progress is high and the fund flow ratio is lower than the preset safety ratio, it is determined that there is a risk of fund chain rupture and a risk alert is issued to the management personnel.

[0021] Progress control: When there is a risk of a capital chain break, adjust the project progress so that the accounts receivable at the current stage reach the preset accounts receivable turnover rate threshold to ensure sufficient funds.

[0022] Furthermore, it also includes S505:

[0023] When the judgment results in the analysis report include excessive fund mobilization or too fast project progress, the fund balance and due debts are obtained based on the information in the three statements. When the fund balance is lower than the due debts, it is judged that the project cash flow is insufficient, and the contractor is prompted to pay additional self-raised funds. By setting a balance point through payment and collection, the contractor can replenish funds in time to ensure stable operation of the project.

[0024] Furthermore, S6 also includes:

[0025] Analyze the capital inflow rate of the three tables of information in different project types in historical data at each project stage. When the capital inflow rate is lower than the preset inflow threshold, it is determined that the collection funds are insufficient, and a corresponding analysis report is generated and sent to the management personnel.

[0026] Furthermore, S3 also includes: verifying the correctness of the data in the three tables according to the data balance relationship between the tables; the data balance relationship between the tables is: project profit = project equity - self-raised funds = fund balance + debt balance - self-raised funds, self-raised funds are the funds that the contractor should invest and are part of the collection data.

[0027] Furthermore, S7 also includes:

[0028] S701: Determine the risk of project loss based on the profit or loss of the project;

[0029] S702: Determine whether the subcontractor and supplier can be fulfilled and the due debts can be dealt with based on the fund balance, thereby determining the performance risk;

[0030] S703: Determine investment risk based on project equity;

[0031] S704: Generate a project risk report based on project loss risk, performance risk and investment risk.

[0032] The principles and advantages of the present invention are:

[0033] This solution realizes the real-time collection, standardized processing, conversion and analysis of business data and financial data through dynamic supervision of project economic risks, effectively improving the automation level and accuracy of project management. By monitoring key indicators such as capital outflow rate and project progress, potential economic risks such as excessive capital mobilization, abnormal project progress and capital chain rupture risks can be discovered and warned in a timely manner. In addition, the solution also provides targeted analysis and control measures, including generating analysis reports, adjusting project progress, setting balance points, etc., to ensure the stable operation of the project. This dynamic supervision method of project economic risks based on the contracting model not only enhances the project's capital management capabilities, but also improves the overall operational efficiency and risk prevention and control level of the project. In addition, this solution classifies the contractor's self-raised funds as collection data, which transforms the traditional "determining expenditures based on revenue" into "collecting expenditures based on expenditures". When the available funds cannot repay the due debts, the contractor remits the self-raised funds to repay the debts, which improves the stability and security of the project operation. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0034] Figure 1 The present invention is a flowchart of the steps of an embodiment of a method for dynamic supervision of project economic risks based on a contracting model. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0035] The following is further described in detail through specific implementation methods:

[0036] The specific implementation process is as follows:

[0037] Embodiment 1

[0038] Embodiment 1 is as attached Figure 1 As shown in the figure, a dynamic supervision method for project economic risks based on the contracting model collects business data and financial data in real time, normalizes the data in combination with financial specifications, and converts the data into three statements of information: balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement. By monitoring and analyzing these key indicators, potential economic risks can be discovered and warned in a timely manner, such as excessive fund mobilization, abnormal project progress, and risk of broken capital chain. Specifically, this method includes the steps of:

[0039] S1: Collect business data and financial data; the business data includes project expected cost data, and the financial data includes collection data and payment data;

[0040] S2: Combined with financial specifications, based on data format, data type, data content and corresponding preset range, it determines whether the collected data complies with the specifications and issues an alarm for non-standard data; if the alarm information is not processed, the next step of automatic processing of business data and financial data cannot be carried out;

[0041] S3: Convert the business data and financial data matched based on financial specifications into three statements of information: balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement;

[0042] S4: Divide project types according to project scale and project cycle duration; and analyze the capital outflow rate of the three tables of information in different project types in historical data at each project stage;

[0043] S5: When the capital outflow rate exceeds the preset change range of this stage, the capital change is determined to be abnormal, the project capital flow is analyzed and regulated, and the profit data pool, capital data pool and project equity data pool are updated according to the preset balance relationship, integrating business data and financial data into engineering management data.

[0044] In this embodiment, each project is divided into four stages: the start-up stage, the execution stage, the monitoring stage, and the closing stage. For example, the capital outflow rate analysis of project A includes:

[0045] Start-up phase (0-6 months): The capital outflow is large, with the average daily capital outflow rate being RMB / day.

[0046] Implementation phase (7-18 months): The capital outflow is stable, with an average daily capital outflow rate of RMB / day.

[0047] Monitoring stage (19-22 months): The capital outflow increased slightly, and the average daily capital outflow rate was yuan / day.

[0048] Closing stage (23-24 months): The amount of capital outflow decreases, and the average daily capital outflow rate is yuan / day.

[0049] The preset variation range is ±15% of the average capital outflow rate of multiple groups of similar projects in that stage. When the capital outflow rate exceeds the preset variation range in that stage, the capital change is judged to be abnormal, and the capital flow of the project is analyzed and regulated accordingly.

[0050] This solution realizes the real-time collection, standardized processing, conversion and analysis of business data and financial data through dynamic supervision of project economic risks, effectively improving the automation level and accuracy of project management. By monitoring key indicators such as capital outflow rate and project progress, it can timely discover and warn of potential economic risks, such as excessive capital mobilization, abnormal project progress, and capital chain rupture risks. In addition, the solution also provides targeted analysis and control measures, including generating analysis reports, adjusting project progress, setting balance points, etc., to ensure the stable operation of the project. This dynamic supervision method of project economic risks based on the contracting model not only enhances the project's capital management capabilities, but also improves the overall operational efficiency and risk prevention and control level of the project.

[0051] Specifically, in this embodiment, S3 also includes: verifying the correctness of the data in the three tables according to the data balance relationship between the tables; the data balance relationship between the tables is: project profit = project equity - self-raised funds = fund balance + debt balance - self-raised funds, self-raised funds are the funds that the contractor should invest, and are part of the collection data. By verifying the correctness of the data in the three tables, the accuracy and consistency of the financial data are ensured, the possibility of human errors is reduced, and the efficiency and reliability of financial management are improved. Classifying the contractor's self-raised funds as collection data is to transform the traditional "spending based on revenue" into "collection based on expenditure". When the available funds cannot repay the due debts, the contractor remits self-raised funds to repay the debts, thereby improving the stability and security of the project operation.

[0052] The analysis control in S5 includes the following steps:

[0053] S501: Compare the deviation value between the actual fund transfer time and the corresponding fund outflow time in the three-table information in this stage with the preset deviation threshold value. When the deviation value reaches the deviation threshold value, it is determined that the fund transfer record is unqualified and an analysis report is generated and sent to the management personnel;

[0054] S502: comparing the actual funds mobilized in the current phase with a preset funds mobilization threshold, and determining that the funds are over-mobilized when the actual funds mobilized reach the funds mobilization threshold;

[0055] S503: Compare the engineering progress of the stage with the historical engineering progress of the project type at the stage to obtain an engineering progress deviation value; when the engineering progress is lower than the preset engineering progress and the engineering progress deviation reaches the preset progress deviation threshold, it is determined that the engineering progress is low; when the engineering progress is higher than the preset engineering progress and the engineering progress deviation reaches the preset progress deviation threshold, it is determined that the engineering progress is high;

[0056] S504: Generate a corresponding analysis report based on the determination result and send it to the management personnel.

[0057] By analyzing the deviation between the actual fund transfer time and the planned time, the present invention can identify problems in fund management, such as delayed or premature fund use, and whether fund transfer is excessive. This helps managers to adjust strategies in a timely manner and optimize fund allocation.

[0058] S505:

[0059] When the judgment results in the analysis report include excessive fund mobilization or too fast project progress, the fund balance and due debts are obtained based on the information in the three statements. When the fund balance is lower than the due debts, it is judged that the project cash flow is insufficient, and the contractor is prompted to pay additional self-raised funds. By setting a balance point through payment and collection, the contractor can replenish funds in time to ensure stable operation of the project.

[0060] By analyzing the deviation between the actual fund transfer time and the planned time, problems in fund management can be identified, such as delayed or early fund use, and whether fund transfer is excessive. This helps managers adjust strategies in a timely manner and optimize fund allocation. For example, if the actual fund transfer time for project B is T+5 days (T is the planned time), and the preset deviation threshold is ±3 days, the system will determine that the fund transfer record is unqualified, and generate an analysis report to point out the problem, reminding managers to pay attention.

[0061] Especially many, among which S503 includes the steps:

[0062] Project progress calculation: collect subcontract measurement data, obtain the completed project volume and the to-be-completed project volume according to the completion status of the project volume of each subcontract contract; obtain the project progress from the ratio of the completed project volume to the total project volume;

[0063] Deviation calculation: There is a preset project progress, which is the average progress of this type of project at the same stage. The current stage's project progress is compared with the preset project progress, and the progress deviation between the two is calculated. If the current project's project progress is lower than the historical average, it is considered to have a negative deviation; otherwise, it is a positive deviation.

[0064] Threshold judgment: When the negative deviation reaches the preset progress deviation threshold, it is judged that the project progress is low; when the positive deviation reaches the preset progress deviation threshold, it is judged that the project progress is high;

[0065] Fund analysis: Calculate the ratio of fund inflow and outflow. When the project progress is high and the fund flow ratio is lower than the preset safety ratio, it is determined that there is a risk of fund chain rupture and a risk alert is issued to the management personnel.

[0066] Progress control: When there is a risk of a capital chain break, adjust the project progress so that the accounts receivable at the current stage reach the preset accounts receivable turnover rate threshold to ensure sufficient funds.

[0067] By comparing the current project progress with historical data, we can accurately determine the speed of the project progress, promptly detect progress deviations, and evaluate whether there is a low or high project progress according to the preset threshold. In addition, combined with the analysis of the capital inflow and outflow ratio, it can also warn of the risk of capital chain rupture and ensure the financial security of the project. For example, for Project A, if the current stage of the project progress is 70%, and the historical average progress of similar projects is 65%, there is a 5% positive deviation; if the capital inflow and outflow ratio of this stage is lower than the preset safety ratio (for example, 1:0.8), the system will determine that there is a risk of capital chain rupture and issue an alarm.

[0068] In S505, when it is found that the funds are over-mobilized or the project progress is too fast, this solution can calculate the fund balance based on the information of the three tables, and compare it with the due debts, and promptly remind the contractor to supplement the self-raised funds to prevent project interruption or default due to insufficient cash flow. For example, the fund balance of Project A at a certain moment is 500,000 yuan, and the debt due is 600,000 yuan. Based on this situation, the system will determine that the project cash flow is insufficient, and automatically remind the contractor to add at least 100,000 yuan of self-raised funds to maintain the normal operation of the project.

[0069] In addition, it also includes S6: analyzing the capital inflow rate of the three tables of information in different project types in the historical data at each project stage. When the capital inflow rate is lower than the preset inflow threshold, it is determined that the collection funds are insufficient, and a corresponding analysis report is generated and sent to the management personnel. By analyzing the capital inflow rate of different project types at different stages, the present invention can issue an alarm in time when the collection funds are insufficient, helping the management personnel to take measures to improve the collection efficiency and ensure the capital supply of the project. If the capital inflow rate of project A in the second stage drops to 50,000 yuan per month, which is lower than the preset inflow threshold of 80,000 yuan / month, the system will determine that the collection funds are insufficient, and generate an analysis report to notify the management personnel so that they can take collection measures or other remedial measures.

[0070] Also includes S7:

[0071] S701: Determine the risk of project loss based on the profit or loss of the project. Analyze and evaluate the project profits in the profit data pool based on the preset profit and loss analysis model and algorithm. If the project profit is lower than the preset threshold or a negative value appears, it can be determined that the project has a risk of loss.

[0072] S702: Determine whether the subcontractor and supplier can perform the contract and deal with the due debts based on the fund balance, thereby determining the performance risk: Analyze and evaluate the fund balance in the fund data pool based on the preset performance capacity analysis model and algorithm. If the fund balance is lower than the preset threshold or cannot meet the demand for payables, it can be determined that the project has performance risk.

[0073] S703: Determine investment risk based on project equity. In this embodiment, the project equity in the project equity data pool can be analyzed and evaluated based on a preset investment analysis model and algorithm. If the project equity is lower than a preset threshold or there are other unfavorable factors, it can be determined that the project has investment risk.

[0074] S704: Generate a risk report based on the project's loss risk, performance risk, and investment risk. According to the preset report template and generation rules, the determined loss risk, performance risk, and investment risk are summarized and sorted to generate a corresponding risk report. The risk report can be provided to the contractor and other relevant parties for reference and use, helping them understand the risk status of the project and take appropriate measures to manage and control it.

[0075] In summary, this solution collects business data and financial data in real time, and uses the data filtering module to determine and filter the data standardization to improve data accuracy. After that, through dynamic supervision of the balance relationship between business data and financial data, it can timely discover the risk points of the project, thereby helping users to take corresponding measures to control and manage in a timely manner and reduce the overall risk of the project. In addition, through risk monitoring and management of financial data, users can grasp the financial status of the project in real time, reasonably arrange the use and allocation of funds, and improve the efficiency of fund utilization. The conversion of financial terms of business data and financial data into engineering management terms has solved the problems of information islands and untimely data collaboration in existing offices.

[0076] The above are only embodiments of the present invention. Common knowledge such as the known specific structures and characteristics in the scheme is not described in detail here. Ordinary technicians in the relevant field know all the common technical knowledge in the technical field to which the invention belongs before the application date or priority date, can obtain all the existing technologies in the field, and have the ability to apply conventional experimental means before that date. Ordinary technicians in the relevant field can improve and implement this scheme in combination with their own abilities under the enlightenment given by this application. Some typical known structures or known methods should not become obstacles for ordinary technicians in the relevant field to implement this application. It should be pointed out that for those skilled in the art, without departing from the structure of the present invention, several deformations and improvements can be made, which should also be regarded as the scope of protection of the present invention, and these will not affect the effect of the implementation of the present invention and the practicality of the patent. The scope of protection required by this application shall be based on the content of its claims, and the specific implementation methods and other records in the specification can be used to interpret the content of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for dynamic supervision of project economic risks based on contracting mode, characterized in that: Includes steps: S1: Collect business data and financial data; the business data includes project expected cost data, and the financial data includes collection data and payment data; S2: Combined with financial specifications, based on data format, data type, data content and corresponding preset range, it determines whether the collected data complies with the specifications and issues an alarm for non-standard data; if the alarm information is not processed, the next step of automatic processing of business data and financial data cannot be carried out; S3: Convert the business data and financial data matched based on financial specifications into three statements of information: balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement; S4: Divide project types according to project scale and project cycle duration; and analyze the capital outflow rate of the three tables of information in different project types in historical data at each project stage; S5: When the capital outflow rate exceeds the preset change range of this stage, the capital change is determined to be abnormal, the project capital flow is analyzed and regulated, and the profit data pool, capital data pool and project equity data pool are updated according to the preset balance relationship, integrating business data and financial data into engineering management data.

2. According to claim 1, a method for dynamic supervision of project economic risks based on contracting mode is characterized in that: The analysis and regulation in S5 comprises the steps of: S501: Compare the deviation value between the actual fund transfer time and the corresponding fund outflow time in the three-table information in this stage with the preset deviation threshold value. When the deviation value reaches the deviation threshold value, it is determined that the fund transfer record is unqualified and an analysis report is generated and sent to the management personnel; S502: comparing the actual funds mobilized in the current phase with a preset funds mobilization threshold, and determining that the funds are over-mobilized when the actual funds mobilized reach the funds mobilization threshold; S503: Compare the engineering progress of the stage with the historical engineering progress of the project type at the stage to obtain an engineering progress deviation value; when the engineering progress is lower than the preset engineering progress and the engineering progress deviation reaches the preset progress deviation threshold, it is determined that the engineering progress is low; when the engineering progress is higher than the preset engineering progress and the engineering progress deviation reaches the preset progress deviation threshold, it is determined that the engineering progress is high; S504: Generate a corresponding analysis report based on the determination result and send it to the management personnel.

3. A method for dynamic supervision of project economic risks based on contracting model according to claim 2, characterized in that: The S503 includes: Project progress calculation: collect subcontract measurement data, obtain the completed project volume and the to-be-completed project volume according to the completion status of the project volume of each subcontract contract; obtain the project progress from the ratio of the completed project volume to the total project volume; Deviation calculation: There is a preset project progress, which is the average progress of this type of project at the same stage. The current stage's project progress is compared with the preset project progress, and the progress deviation between the two is calculated. If the current project's project progress is lower than the historical average, it is considered to have a negative deviation; otherwise, it is a positive deviation. Threshold judgment: When the negative deviation reaches the preset progress deviation threshold, it is judged that the project progress is low; when the positive deviation reaches the preset progress deviation threshold, it is judged that the project progress is high; Fund analysis: Calculate the ratio of fund inflow and outflow. When the project progress is high and the fund flow ratio is lower than the preset safety ratio, it is determined that there is a risk of fund chain rupture and a risk alert is issued to the management personnel. Progress control: When there is a risk of a capital chain break, adjust the project progress so that the accounts receivable at the current stage reach the preset accounts receivable turnover rate threshold to ensure sufficient funds.

4. According to claim 3, a method for dynamic supervision of project economic risks based on contracting mode is characterized in that: Also includes S505: When the judgment results in the analysis report include excessive fund mobilization or too fast project progress, the fund balance and due debts are obtained based on the information in the three statements. When the fund balance is lower than the due debts, it is judged that the project cash flow is insufficient, and the contractor is prompted to pay additional self-raised funds. By setting a balance point through payment and collection, the contractor can replenish funds in time to ensure stable operation of the project.

5. According to claim 3, a method for dynamic supervision of project economic risks based on contracting mode is characterized in that: Also includes S6: Analyze the capital inflow rate of the three tables of information in different project types in historical data at each project stage. When the capital inflow rate is lower than the preset inflow threshold, it is determined that the collection funds are insufficient, and a corresponding analysis report is generated and sent to the management personnel.

6. The method for dynamic supervision of project economic risks based on contracting mode according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The S3 also includes: verifying the correctness of the data in the three tables according to the data balance relationship between the tables; the data balance relationship between the tables is: project profit = project equity - self-raised funds = fund balance + debt balance - self-raised funds, self-raised funds are the funds that the contractor should invest and are part of the collection data.

7. A method for dynamic supervision of project economic risks based on contracting mode according to claim 6, characterized in that: Also includes S7: S701: Determine the risk of project loss based on the profit or loss of the project; S702: Determine whether the subcontractor and supplier can be fulfilled and the due debts can be dealt with based on the fund balance, thereby determining the performance risk; S703: Determine investment risk based on project equity; S704: Generate a project risk report based on project loss risk, performance risk and investment risk.

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