Construction scheme cost evaluation method and system for technical improvement project of power grid

Abstract

The invention relates to a construction scheme cost evaluation method and system for a power grid technical improvement project, which can fully consider different cost factors related to the power grid production technical improvement project, including equipment purchase cost, construction installation cost and debugging cost by determining the total cost by adopting a parameter estimation method, and can evaluate the construction scheme cost of the power grid technical improvement project by finely analyzing the cost factors. The total cost of the project can be accurately estimated, a reliable data basis is provided for subsequent cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment, the cost-benefit is analyzed through the NPV model, the implementability index of the scheme is calculated through the NPV value, and the implementability can be adjusted according to the condition of the net profit by introducing the net profit adjustment coefficient. And on the basis of considering the net present value, the influence of the net profit on the implementation of the scheme is also considered.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to a construction plan cost evaluation method for a power grid technical transformation project, and belongs to the technical field of power grid technical transformation. Background Art

[0002] With the rapid development of the economy and the continuous growth of electricity demand, the safe and stable operation of the power grid is of vital importance. The power grid production technical transformation project is an important measure to carry out technical transformation and upgrading of the existing power grid, aiming to improve the reliability, safety, and intelligence level of the power grid and adapt to the ever-changing power market demand.

[0003] However, the power grid production technical transformation project involves many links and complex technical requirements, including equipment updates, line modifications, system upgrades, etc. Before the construction of the power grid production technical transformation project is carried out, the cost of the construction plan needs to be evaluated.

[0004] When using existing evaluation methods, on the one hand, they lack comprehensiveness. Cost evaluation methods often only focus on direct costs such as equipment procurement costs, while ignoring other indirect costs. This makes the cost evaluation results inaccurate and unable to fully reflect the actual cost of power grid production technical transformation projects; on the other hand, they lack dynamism. When one of the cost factors in the construction plan changes, the traditional cost evaluation method uses empirical estimates or simple calculation formulas to evaluate the cost. It is usually difficult to timely judge the impact of the change in the cost factor on the net present value and feasibility of the total cost, which is not convenient for timely adjustment of the plan and is not conducive to discovering potential optimization space between sub-projects. Summary of the invention

[0005] In order to solve the problems existing in the prior art, the present invention provides a construction plan cost evaluation method which takes various cost factors into consideration.

[0006] In order to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the technical solution proposed by the present invention is: a construction plan cost evaluation method for a power grid technical transformation project, comprising:

[0007] Estimate the total annual cost during the project life cycle based on the parameters of the construction plan to be evaluated for the power grid technical transformation project, and calculate the corresponding total benefits;

[0008] Calculate the net present value (NPV) and net profit adjustment factor (k) based on the estimated total costs and total benefits;

[0009]

[0010] Among them, S is net profit, TU t represents the total benefit in year t, TC t represents the total cost in year t, where T is the project life;

[0011] The feasibility q of the construction plan to be evaluated is obtained by using the net present value NPV and the net profit adjustment coefficient k;

[0012]

[0013] The construction plan to be evaluated is evaluated through feasibility q.

[0014] A further design of the above technical solution is: the calculation method of the net present value NPV is:

[0015]

[0016] Here, a is the discount rate.

[0017] The total cost TC is calculated as follows:

[0018] TC=(C×Q)+P+(Pl×L)+R

[0019] Among them, C is the unit cost of power grid equipment, Q is the number of equipment, P is the labor cost, L is the construction time, l is the unit construction time, Pl is the labor cost per unit construction time, and R is the commissioning cost.

[0020] The calculation method of the unit cost C of the power grid equipment is:

[0021] Assume that the purchase cost of the first year in the last three years is X, the purchase cost of the second year is Y, and the purchase cost of the third year is Z, then:

[0022]

[0023] Among them, M is the wholesale cost in the local market, N is the wholesale cost in the foreign market, n is the cross-regional transportation cost, G=N+n is the sum of the wholesale cost and the transportation cost, and w1, w2 and w3 are the weights corresponding to the first year, the second year and the third year respectively.

[0024] The net profit S = TU-TC,

[0025] Among them, TC is the total cost and TU is the total benefit.

[0026] The scheme to be evaluated for the power grid production technical transformation project is divided into multiple sub-projects, and the net present value (NPV) of each sub-project is calculated separately: the net present value of the i-th sub-project is:

[0027]

[0028] Among them, TCi t represents the benefit of subproject i in year t, TUi t represents the cost of subproject i in year t, a is the discount rate, and T is the project life;

[0029] The total net present value TotalNPV is:

[0030]

[0031] When the power grid production technical transformation project to be evaluated includes multiple sub-projects, the total net profit

[0032] Net profit adjustment factor

[0033] Feasibility of the construction plan to be evaluated

[0034] When 0.5≤q<1, the scheme evaluation is passed. When 0<q<0.5, the parameters of the construction scheme to be evaluated are revised and re-evaluated.

[0035] A construction plan cost evaluation system for a power grid technical transformation project, comprising:

[0036] The cost estimation module is used to estimate the total annual cost during the life of the project based on the parameters of the construction plan to be evaluated for the power grid technical transformation project, and calculate the corresponding total benefits;

[0037] A feasibility analysis module, used to calculate the feasibility q of the construction scheme to be evaluated according to the estimated total cost and total benefit by using the method described in any one of claims 1 to 7;

[0038] The evaluation module is used to evaluate the construction plan to be evaluated according to its feasibility q.

[0039] A computer-readable storage medium storing one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs include instructions, which, when executed by a computing device, enable the computing device to execute the construction plan cost assessment method for the above-mentioned power grid technical transformation project.

[0040] A computing device comprises: one or more processors, a memory and one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and are configured to be executed by the one or more processors, and the one or more programs include instructions for executing the construction plan cost assessment method for the above-mentioned power grid technical improvement project.

[0041] The beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0042] The present invention determines various costs by adopting parameter estimation method, which can fully consider the different cost factors involved in the power grid production technical transformation project, including equipment procurement cost, construction and installation cost, commissioning cost, etc. Through the careful analysis of these cost factors, the total cost of the project can be accurately estimated, providing a reliable data basis for subsequent cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment. At the same time, the cost-benefit is analyzed through the NPV model, and the feasibility of the plan is reflected through the NPV value. The introduction of the net profit adjustment coefficient can adjust the feasibility according to the net profit situation. On the basis of considering the net present value, the influence of the net profit on the feasibility of the plan is also taken into account.

[0043] The present invention first calculates the net present value and feasibility of the total cost through the cost evaluation system, and can understand the economic feasibility and implementation value of the entire power grid production technical transformation project plan from a macro level, which provides a holistic judgment basis for decision makers and helps to quickly determine whether the plan is worth further in-depth analysis. Then, the net present value and feasibility of each sub-project are calculated, which can go deep into the specific project components. This hierarchical evaluation method makes the decision more accurate and can adjust and optimize the plan in a targeted manner. When a sub-project changes, since the net present value and feasibility of each sub-project have been calculated, the impact of the change on the sub-project itself and the entire plan can be quickly evaluated. In addition, at different stages of the project, the demand for flexibility is also different. In the early stage of the project, it may be necessary to consider the overall feasibility and adjustability of the plan more, and in the process of project implementation, it may be necessary to pay more attention to the changes and optimization of the sub-projects. The method of first calculating the net present value and feasibility of the total cost and then calculating the net present value and feasibility of the sub-project can meet the needs of different project stages and provide strong support for the smooth implementation of the project. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0044] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the process of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0045] The present invention is described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0046] Embodiment 1

[0047] This embodiment relates to a construction plan cost evaluation method for a power grid technical transformation project. Figure 1 As shown, the method first determines the cost estimation model and benefit analysis model related to the cost of the power grid technical transformation project, and then uses the above models to conduct cost evaluation; specifically, it includes:

[0048] Step 1: The cost estimation model adopts parameter estimation method to estimate the total cost of each year during the project life cycle according to the key parameters of the construction plan to be evaluated of the power grid technical transformation project, and calculate the corresponding total benefits;

[0049] 1.1. First, clarify the number and type of equipment that needs to be replaced and upgraded in the power grid technical transformation production project, determine the unit cost and the total cost of purchasing equipment, and then clarify the length of line laying, the number of poles and towers, and the workload of equipment installation in the power grid technical transformation production project, and determine the unit cost and construction and installation cost. Finally, determine the commissioning cost based on the actual situation; use the parameter estimation method to estimate the total cost of the key parameters in each cost factor in the construction plan.

[0050] The key parameters of the construction plan to be evaluated include the unit cost of power grid equipment (C), the number of equipment (Q), labor cost (P), construction time (L), unit construction time (l), labor cost per unit construction time (Pl), and commissioning cost (R); the commissioning cost R includes the additional costs such as rework and repair caused by the failure of project quality to meet the standards due to lax cost control, waste, or unclear quality standards in actual situations, which can be determined by analyzing historical data of similar projects.

[0051] The total cost TC is calculated as:

[0052] TC=(C×Q)+P+(Pl×L)+R

[0053] The calculation method of the unit cost C of power grid equipment is:

[0054] Assume that the purchase cost of the first year in the last three years is X, the purchase cost of the second year is Y, and the purchase cost of the third year is Z. The wholesale cost of the local market is M, the wholesale cost of the foreign market is N, and the cross-regional transportation cost is n. Based on the combination of the wholesale cost N of the foreign market and the transportation cost n, the unit cost C of equipment procurement is obtained;

[0055] Assuming the sum of wholesale cost and transportation cost is G=N+n, then the calculation formula of unit cost C after combining all factors is:

[0056]

[0057] Among them, w1, w2 and w3 are the weights corresponding to the first year, the second year and the third year respectively.

[0058] 1.2. Total benefit TU = benefit of improving power supply reliability + benefit of reducing energy consumption + benefit of improving power grid security.

[0059] Step 2: The cost-benefit analysis model calculates the net present value (NPV) and the net profit adjustment factor (k) based on the estimated total cost and total benefit;

[0060] 2.1 Net Present Value

[0061] Among them, a is the discount rate, which is determined based on the return rate of similar projects in the market.

[0062] 2.2. This embodiment takes into account the estimated net profit and introduces a net profit adjustment coefficient k, which reflects the proportion of net profit in the difference between total benefits and total costs;

[0063]

[0064] Among them, S is the net profit, S = TU-TC, TC is the total cost, TU is the total benefit, TU t represents the total benefit in year t, TC t represents the total cost in year t, where T is the project life.

[0065] Step 3: Use the net present value NPV and the net profit adjustment coefficient k to obtain the feasibility q of the construction plan to be evaluated;

[0066]

[0067] When NPV>0, the value of q will approach 1 as NPV increases, indicating that the scheme is highly feasible; when NPV<0, the value of q will approach 0 as NPV decreases, indicating that the scheme is not feasible; at the same time, the net profit adjustment coefficient k will adjust q according to the net profit situation, taking into account the impact of net profit on the feasibility of the scheme while considering the net present value.

[0068] Specifically, when 0.5≤q<1, it is considered that the plan can be implemented and put into construction of the power grid production technical transformation project; when 0<q<0.5, the key parameters in the construction plan need to be revised. This embodiment sets the numerical range according to the actual construction plan of the power grid production technical transformation project, and then screens the data according to this range to eliminate the waste data outside the range. The numerical range can be modified according to the specific construction situation, and the revised key parameters are re-evaluated.

[0069] Embodiment 2

[0070] The method of this embodiment is basically the same as that of the embodiment, except that: in this embodiment, the scheme to be evaluated for the power grid production technical transformation project is divided into multiple sub-projects. When calculating the feasibility q, the net present value NPV of each sub-project is first calculated respectively: the net present value of the i-th sub-project is:

[0071]

[0072] Among them, TCi t represents the benefit of subproject i in year t, TUi t represents the cost of subproject i in year t, a is the discount rate, and T is the project life;

[0073] The total net present value TotalNPV is:

[0074]

[0075] Total net profit

[0076] Net profit adjustment factor

[0077] Feasibility of the construction plan to be evaluated

[0078] The method of this embodiment comprehensively considers the costs and benefits of each sub-project, and evaluates the feasibility of the plan by using a broad net present value and introducing a net profit adjustment factor.

[0079] Embodiment 3

[0080] This embodiment provides a construction plan cost evaluation system for a power grid technical transformation project, including a cost estimation module, a feasibility analysis module and an evaluation module:

[0081] A cost estimation module, used to estimate the total annual cost of the construction scheme to be evaluated during the project life cycle using the method of the first embodiment, and calculate the corresponding total benefit;

[0082] A feasibility analysis module, used to calculate the feasibility q of the construction scheme to be evaluated according to the estimated total cost and total benefit using the method of the first embodiment;

[0083] The evaluation module is used to evaluate the construction plan to be evaluated according to the feasibility q using the method of the first embodiment.

[0084] Embodiment 4

[0085] This embodiment relates to a computer-readable storage medium storing one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs include instructions, which, when executed by a computing device, enable the computing device to execute the construction plan cost assessment method for a power grid technical improvement project described in Example 1.

[0086] This embodiment also relates to a computing device, comprising: one or more processors, a memory and one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, and the one or more programs include instructions for executing the construction plan cost assessment method for the power grid technical improvement project described in Example 1.

[0087] The technical solutions of the present invention are not limited to the above-mentioned embodiments, and any technical solutions obtained by equivalent replacement methods fall within the scope of protection required by the present invention.

Claims

1. A construction plan cost assessment method for a power grid technical transformation project, characterized in that: include: Estimate the total annual cost during the project life cycle based on the parameters of the construction plan to be evaluated for the power grid technical transformation project, and calculate the corresponding total benefits; Calculate the net present value (NPV) and net profit adjustment factor (k) based on the estimated total costs and total benefits; Among them, S is net profit, TU t represents the total benefit in year t, TC t represents the total cost in year t, where T is the project life; The feasibility q of the construction plan to be evaluated is obtained by using the net present value NPV and the net profit adjustment coefficient k; The construction plan to be evaluated is evaluated through feasibility q.

2. The construction plan cost evaluation method for a power grid technical transformation project according to claim 1 is characterized by: The calculation method of the net present value NPV is: Where a is the discount rate.

3. The construction plan cost evaluation method for a power grid technical transformation project according to claim 2 is characterized by: The total cost TC is calculated as follows: TC=(C×Q)+P+(Pl×L)+R Among them, C is the unit cost of power grid equipment, Q is the number of equipment, P is the labor cost, L is the construction time, l is the unit construction time, Pl is the labor cost per unit construction time, and R is the commissioning cost.

4. The construction plan cost evaluation method for a power grid technical transformation project according to claim 3 is characterized by: The calculation method of the unit cost C of the power grid equipment is: Assume that the purchase cost of the first year in the last three years is X, the purchase cost of the second year is Y, and the purchase cost of the third year is Z, then: Among them, M is the wholesale cost in the local market, N is the wholesale cost in the foreign market, n is the cross-regional transportation cost, G=N+n is the sum of the wholesale cost and the transportation cost, and w1, w2 and w3 are the weights corresponding to the first year, the second year and the third year respectively.

5. The construction plan cost evaluation method for a power grid technical transformation project according to claim 4 is characterized by: The net profit S = TU-TC, Among them, TC is the total cost and TU is the total benefit.

6. The construction plan cost evaluation method for a power grid technical transformation project according to claim 5 is characterized by: The scheme to be evaluated for the power grid production technical transformation project is divided into multiple sub-projects, and the net present value (NPV) of each sub-project is calculated separately: the net present value of the i-th sub-project is: Among them, TC t represents the benefit of subproject i in year t, TUi t represents the cost of subproject i in year t, a is the discount rate, and T is the project life; The total net present value TotalNPV is: When the power grid production technical transformation project to be evaluated includes multiple sub-projects, the total net profit Net profit adjustment factor Feasibility of the construction plan to be evaluated 7. The construction plan cost evaluation method for a power grid technical transformation project according to claim 6 is characterized by: When 0.5≤q<1, the scheme evaluation is passed. When 0<q<0.5, the parameters of the construction scheme to be evaluated are revised and re-evaluated.

8. A construction plan cost evaluation system for a power grid technical transformation project, characterized in that: include: The cost estimation module is used to estimate the total annual cost during the life of the project based on the parameters of the construction plan to be evaluated for the power grid technical transformation project, and calculate the corresponding total benefits; A feasibility analysis module, used to calculate the feasibility q of the construction scheme to be evaluated according to the estimated total cost and total benefit by using the method described in any one of claims 1 to 7; The evaluation module is used to evaluate the construction plan to be evaluated according to its feasibility q.

9. A computer-readable storage medium storing one or more programs, characterized in that: The one or more programs include instructions, which, when executed by a computing device, enable the computing device to execute the construction plan cost assessment method for a power grid technical improvement project as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computing device, characterized in that include: One or more processors, a memory and one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, and the one or more programs include instructions for executing the construction plan cost assessment method for a power grid technical improvement project as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

Images