Power balancing method for large-scale access scenario based on capacity value of new energy

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of large-scale access scene power balance method based on new energy capacity value, for planning personnel to evaluate system installation sufficient level and operation scheduling provide reference, promote grid and power healthy coordinated development.The application includes the following steps: step (1): annual analysis is carried out, water and fire power maintenance plan is arranged, and the minimum day of system sufficiency is determined as power balance control day;Step (2): according to the operation result of energy storage power supply, whether its electric quantity reaches the requirement of participating in balance is judged;Step (3): the construction of power balance scene: the construction of power balance scene is divided into new energy power balance scene construction, the selection of new energy standby capacity and the production operation simulation of power balance scene with the minimum power gap as objective function.Step (4): according to the production operation simulation result, the power output of peak period is determined, and power balance table is prepared.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to a power balancing method, specifically a power balancing method that considers the capacity value of new energy sources in scenarios involving large-scale integration of new energy sources. Background Technology

[0002] Traditional power sources possess capacity value. However, due to their randomness, volatility, and intermittency, wind and solar power contribute relatively little to the reliability of power generation. When wind and solar power participate in power balancing, they are often considered power sources with only energy value and no capacity value. But as the scale of intermittent power sources increases, neglecting their capacity value can lead to significant errors in system planning and operational analysis, particularly in economic assessments. Therefore, in recent years, planning departments have begun to focus on methods for intermittent power sources such as wind and solar power to participate in power balancing.

[0003] Existing balancing methods have gone through the following three stages:

[0004] (1) The scale of new energy is small, so the power balance is not considered. The power balance is considered according to the traditional balance method. New energy participates in the power balance according to the annual utilization hours.

[0005] (2) Once the scale of new energy sources is large enough, the probability of new energy output during peak hours is statistically analyzed to determine the reliable capacity of new energy sources, which is then used to participate in power balancing. In Qinghai, the peak load on the power grid occurs at night, when photovoltaic output is zero, and wind power participates in power balancing based on its reliable capacity. This method is currently used in most power balancing systems.

[0006] The first method ignores the capacity value of intermittent power sources, leading to serious resource waste, and the low economic value also hinders the large-scale development of wind and solar power. The second method statistically analyzes the output characteristics of new energy sources during peak hours, reflecting the capacity value of intermittent power sources to some extent, but it does not consider the power transfer role of hydropower and energy storage. New energy sources are also gradually shifting from supplementary energy to alternative energy. However, because wind and solar power have different output characteristics than conventional hydropower and thermal power, their power output depends on uncontrollable external factors such as wind and solar power, exhibiting significant randomness and volatility. The high proportion of new energy sources presents a significant challenge to planners and operators in assessing the adequacy of installed capacity and in operational scheduling. Summary of the Invention

[0007] The technical problem to be solved by this invention is to provide a power balance method for large-scale access scenarios based on the value of new energy capacity, which addresses the shortcomings of the prior art and provides a reference for planners to assess the adequacy of system installed capacity and operation scheduling, thereby promoting the healthy and coordinated development of the power grid and power sources.

[0008] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention employs the following technical solution:

[0009] A power balance method for large-scale grid integration scenarios based on the value of renewable energy capacity includes the following steps:

[0010] Step (1): Conduct a year-round analysis, arrange maintenance plans for hydropower and thermal power plants, and determine the day with the minimum system adequacy as the power balance control day;

[0011] Step (2): Based on the operation results of the energy storage power source, determine whether its power volume meets the requirements for participating in the balance; when the energy storage scale or hydropower regulation capacity is strong, the power of new energy during off-peak hours can be transferred to peak hours for power generation through energy storage, and at this time, a power balance scenario is constructed.

[0012] Step (3): Constructing a power balance scenario: The construction of a power balance scenario is divided into the construction of a new energy power balance scenario, the selection of new energy reserve capacity, and the simulation of power balance scenario production and operation with the minimum power gap as the objective function.

[0013] Step (4): Based on the production operation simulation results, determine the power output during peak hours and compile a power balance sheet.

[0014] As a preferred embodiment of the balancing method disclosed in this invention,

[0015] In step (3), the construction of the new energy power balance scenario is specifically as follows:

[0016] The power balance scenario is a 24-hour day on the power balance control day. Power balance is the balance at the moment of maximum load in this scenario.

[0017] The construction of a new energy power balance scenario is divided into the selection of new energy guarantee rate, selection of typical daily curve, daily power conversion, and peak-hour output correction, which are carried out in the following steps:

[0018] S301: Select the new energy guarantee rate, and based on the characteristics of new energy power generation and the planned annual wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity, consider the coupling of wind and solar power output, and calculate the planned annual wind and solar superimposed power output.

[0019] S302: The method for selecting the typical daily power output curve is to select the full-day power output data with a 100% guarantee rate as the typical daily curve;

[0020] S303: Based on the combined wind and solar power output of the planned year, and under the selected renewable energy guarantee rate, calculate the daily power generation and peak load output of the renewable energy corresponding to the guarantee rate;

[0021] S304: Correct the peak output on the typical daily power output curve and convert it to other times other than the peak time according to the daily power difference, so as to obtain the new energy power balance scenario under the guarantee rate.

[0022] As a preferred embodiment of the balancing method disclosed in this invention,

[0023] In step (3), the selection process for the reserve capacity of new energy sources is as follows:

[0024] In addition to meeting the system's minimum backup requirements, additional backup capacity is provided for the portion of renewable energy output that is damaged. The minimum backup capacity is the backup capacity required by the system to meet the minimum renewable energy power generation scenario under extreme weather conditions, assuming a 100% renewable energy guarantee rate.

[0025] The reserve capacity of new energy sources is the additional reserve capacity required by the system to cope with the uncertainty of the output of new energy sources when other guarantee rates are selected.

[0026] The power output of new energy sources that is damaged is the power output of new energy sources that exceeds the design guarantee rate of the new energy sources.

[0027] The calculation method for the reserve capacity of new energy sources is as follows: First, determine the difference between the power loss caused by the new energy source and the peak output of the new energy source during the peak period of the 100% guaranteed daily power generation. Then, calculate the reserve capacity that the system needs to provide for this part of the power loss caused by the new energy source.

[0028] As a preferred embodiment of the balancing method disclosed in this invention,

[0029] In step (1), the power balance control day is the day with the maximum load in winter.

[0030] As a preferred embodiment of the balancing method disclosed in this invention,

[0031] Step S301 further includes the steps of calculating the annual maximum power generation hours (T), daily power generation (E) under different conditions, and power output (P) under different conditions.

[0032] Step S302 further includes the step of integrating the typical sunrise force (P) into a typical sunrise force curve.

[0033] In step S303, the daily power consumption-cumulative frequency (f) is calculated. e ) and daily electricity consumption - cumulative electricity consumption (Q E The calculation of ) lays the groundwork for correcting the peak output on the typical daily output curve in the next step.

[0034] In step S304, the hourly output-cumulative frequency (f) is calculated. P ) and hourly output - cumulative power (Q)p The calculation is performed to determine the output at peak times on a typical daily power output curve, and then proportionally converts the output to other times other than peak times according to the daily power difference, thereby obtaining the new energy power balance scenario under this guarantee rate.

[0035] As a preferred embodiment of the balancing method disclosed in this invention, the annual maximum power generation hours (T) is the ratio of the annual power generation of new energy to the installed capacity of new energy, which is used to reflect the overall power generation level of new energy.

[0036]

[0037] In equation (1), T represents the maximum annual power generation hours; Q y Annual power generation from new energy sources; C represents installed capacity of new energy sources.

[0038] Daily electricity generation (E) is the ratio of daily power generation from new energy sources to the installed capacity of new energy sources;

[0039]

[0040] In equation (2), E represents daily electricity consumption; Q d C represents the daily power generation of new energy sources; C represents the installed capacity of new energy sources.

[0041] Maximum daily electricity consumption (E) 最大 The maximum daily electricity consumption is E, and the minimum daily electricity consumption is E. 最小 The minimum daily electricity consumption throughout the year is represented by the average daily electricity consumption (E). 平均 The total annual electricity consumption is calculated by dividing the total number of days in the year.

[0042] Daily effective electricity consumption (E) 有效 () represents the daily electricity consumption corresponding to a certain cumulative electricity consumption on the daily electricity consumption-cumulative electricity consumption curve. Typically, the daily electricity consumption value at 95% of the cumulative electricity consumption is selected, representing that the daily electricity consumption of new energy sources does not exceed E. 有效 The accumulated battery level reached 95%;

[0043] Daily guaranteed power consumption (E) 保证 The value represents the daily electricity consumption at a certain cumulative frequency on the daily electricity consumption-cumulative frequency curve. Usually, the electricity consumption value at the 95% cumulative frequency is selected, which means that the daily electricity consumption of new energy sources is not less than this value on 95% of the days, and the confidence level is 95% for the daily electricity consumption of new energy sources.

[0044] Maximum output (P) 最大 ) represents the maximum hourly output throughout the year, and the minimum output (P) represents the maximum output throughout the year. 最小 ) represents the minimum hourly output throughout the year, and the average output (P) 平均 The total annual electricity consumption is divided by the total number of hours consumed throughout the year.

[0045] Effective capacity (P)有效 The output corresponding to a certain cumulative energy consumption on the hourly output-cumulative energy consumption curve is usually selected as the output value at 95% of the cumulative energy consumption, representing that the output of new energy sources does not exceed P. 有效 The accumulated battery level reached 95%;

[0046] Guaranteed output (P) 保证 The output corresponding to a certain cumulative frequency on the hourly output-cumulative frequency curve is usually selected as the output value at 95% of the cumulative frequency. This means that the output of new energy is not less than this value for 95% of the time, which is also the confidence level of the new energy power generation output at 95%.

[0047] In the monthly electricity consumption distribution curve, the monthly electricity consumption distribution is used to reflect the monthly changes in electricity consumption, that is:

[0048]

[0049] In equation (3), T m Monthly electricity consumption for new energy sources; Q m Actual monthly power generation from new energy sources; C represents installed capacity of new energy sources;

[0050] Daily electricity consumption - cumulative frequency (f e () is the ratio of the number of days in the year that a certain day's power generation hours occur to the total number of days in the year;

[0051]

[0052] In equation (4), f e Daily electricity consumption - cumulative frequency, D pr Daily electricity consumption E (d) In E (d)≥ E (1) The number of days in the interval throughout the year, where D is the total number of days in the year;

[0053] Daily electricity consumption - Cumulative electricity consumption (Q) E () is the ratio of the total number of hours of power generation on a certain day to the total annual power generation.

[0054]

[0055] Q E =Q E1 +Q E2 (6)

[0056] Hourly output - cumulative frequency (f) P The ratio of the number of times a certain output occurs throughout the year to the total number of hours throughout the year represents the output that a new energy source can achieve at this frequency.

[0057]

[0058] In equation (6), N PR Contributing to new energy P (t) In P (t) ≥P (1) The number of times the interval appears throughout the year, where H is the number of hours throughout the year;

[0059] Hourly output - cumulative power consumption (Q) p This represents the ratio of the total output of new energy sources less than or equal to a certain output to the annual electricity consumption, indicating the cumulative electricity consumption percentage of new energy sources not exceeding a certain output.

[0060]

[0061] Q p =Q P1 +Q P2 (8)

[0062] The beneficial effects of this invention are:

[0063] In the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system under the "dual carbon" background, the method of this invention calculates the value of new energy capacity in the new power system, that is, its contribution to power generation reliability. It establishes a calculation method for new energy to participate in power balance and provides a reference for planners to evaluate the system's installed capacity adequacy level and operation scheduling, thus promoting the healthy and coordinated development of the power grid and power sources.

[0064] This invention addresses the scenario of large-scale renewable energy integration by constructing a more systematic power balance calculation method. It determines the power balance control day, constructs a power balance scenario based on the operating results of energy storage power sources, and finally compiles a power balance table based on production operation simulation results. This provides a clear and systematic calculation process for power balance analysis in complex renewable energy integration scenarios.

[0065] In constructing a new energy supply guarantee scenario, the method of this invention combines the characteristics of new energy power generation to select the guarantee rate of new energy power and output, and uses multiple calculation parameters and output curves to jointly support the construction of the scenario, which has parameter support and a wider range of applications. Attached Figure Description

[0066] Figure 1 A flowchart for new energy sources participating in power balancing;

[0067] Figure 2 Flowchart for building a new energy power balance scenario;

[0068] Figure 3 The calculation process for reserve capacity of new energy sources. Detailed Implementation

[0069] The specific embodiments of the present invention are described below with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples:

[0070] Example 1: The specific implementation process of the present invention is as follows

[0071] (1) Conduct a year-round analysis, arrange maintenance plans for hydropower and thermal power plants, and determine the day with the minimum system adequacy as the power balance control day. For the Qinghai power grid, the power balance control day is the day with the maximum load in winter.

[0072] (2) Based on the operation results of the energy storage power source, determine whether its power volume meets the requirements for participating in the power balancing. When the energy storage scale or hydropower regulation capacity is strong, the power volume of new energy sources during off-peak hours can also be transferred to peak hours for power generation through energy storage, which requires the construction of a power balancing scenario.

[0073] (3) The construction of power balance scenarios is divided into the construction of new energy power balance scenarios, the selection of new energy reserve capacity, and the simulation of power balance scenario production and operation with the minimum power gap as the objective function.

[0074] (4) Based on the production operation simulation results, determine the power output during peak hours and compile a power balance sheet. The calculation process is as follows: Figure 1 .

[0075] In the construction of the new energy power balance scenario in the above embodiments:

[0076] The power balance scenario is a 24-hour period on a power balance control day. Power balance is the balance at the moment of maximum load in this scenario.

[0077] The construction of a new energy power balance scenario can be divided into the selection of new energy guarantee rate, selection of typical daily curve, daily power conversion, and peak-hour output correction, which are carried out in the following steps:

[0078] First, the new energy guarantee rate is selected, and based on the characteristics of new energy power generation and the planned annual wind and solar power installation capacity, the combined wind and solar power output is calculated considering the coupling of wind and solar power output.

[0079] Then, the method for selecting the typical daily power output curve is to select the full-day power output data with a 100% guarantee rate as the typical daily curve.

[0080] Secondly, based on the combined wind and solar power output of the planned year, and under the selected renewable energy guarantee rate, the daily power generation and peak load output of the renewable energy corresponding to that guarantee rate are calculated.

[0081] Finally, peak-hour output is adjusted on a typical daily output curve, and then proportionally converted to other times outside of peak hours according to the daily power difference, thus obtaining the renewable energy power balance scenario under this guarantee rate. The process for constructing the renewable energy power balance scenario is described below. Figure 2 .

[0082] In the specific embodiments of the present invention described above, the standby capacity is calculated as follows:

[0083] In addition to meeting the system's minimum backup requirements, additional backup capacity is needed to cover the portion of renewable energy output that is disrupted. The minimum backup capacity refers to the system's required backup capacity to meet the minimum renewable energy generation scenario under extreme weather conditions, assuming a 100% renewable energy guarantee rate. The renewable energy backup capacity refers to the additional backup capacity required to address the uncertainty of renewable energy output when other guarantee rates are selected. The disrupted renewable energy output / power refers to the renewable energy output / power exceeding the renewable energy design guarantee rate (100% guarantee rate).

[0084] The calculation method for renewable energy reserve capacity is as follows: First, determine the difference between the renewable energy's depleted electricity / power (daily electricity / peak-hour output in renewable energy supply scenarios) and the renewable energy's daily electricity / peak-hour output at 100% guarantee rate. Then, calculate the reserve capacity that the system needs to provide for this portion of renewable energy's depleted electricity / power. The renewable energy reserve capacity calculation process is as follows: Figure 3 .

[0085] The calculation process for some specific parameters in the above embodiments is as follows:

[0086] (1) Annual maximum power generation hours (T)

[0087] The annual maximum generating hours is the ratio of the annual power generation of new energy sources to the installed capacity of new energy sources, which is used to reflect the overall power generation level of new energy sources.

[0088]

[0089] In the formula, T represents the maximum annual power generation hours; Q y Annual power generation from new energy sources; C represents installed capacity of new energy sources.

[0090] Due to weather conditions, the number of hours of power generation from new energy sources varies from year to year. Data from typical years should be selected through analysis of data from multiple years.

[0091] (2) Maximum daily electricity consumption (E) 最大 Daily effective electricity consumption (E) 有效 ), average daily electricity consumption (E) 平均 Daily guaranteed power consumption (E) 保证 ), minimum daily power consumption (E) 最小 Daily electricity generation (E) is the ratio of daily power generation from new energy sources to installed capacity of new energy sources.

[0092]

[0093] In the formula, E represents the daily electricity consumption; Q d C represents the daily power generation of new energy sources; C represents the installed capacity of new energy sources.

[0094] Maximum daily electricity consumption (E) 最大The maximum daily electricity consumption is E, and the minimum daily electricity consumption is E. 最小 The minimum daily electricity consumption throughout the year is represented by the average daily electricity consumption (E). 平均 The total annual electricity consumption is calculated by dividing the total number of days in the year by the total annual electricity consumption.

[0095] Daily effective electricity consumption (E) 有效 () represents the daily electricity consumption corresponding to a certain cumulative electricity consumption on the daily electricity consumption-cumulative electricity consumption curve. Typically, the daily electricity consumption value at 95% of the cumulative electricity consumption is selected, representing that the daily electricity consumption of new energy sources does not exceed E. 有效 The cumulative electricity consumption reached 95%. It is mainly used for selecting the transmission capacity of new energy transmission projects and calculating the peak-shaving balance of new energy grid acceptance.

[0096] Daily guaranteed power consumption (E) 保证 This represents the daily electricity consumption corresponding to a specific cumulative frequency on the daily electricity consumption-cumulative frequency curve. Typically, the electricity value at 95% cumulative frequency is selected, meaning that the daily electricity consumption of new energy sources is not less than this value on 95% of the days, i.e., the daily power generation of new energy sources with a 95% confidence level. It is used to measure the value of new energy sources under conditions of guaranteed power supply, generally referring to the amount of electricity that can replace conventional power sources under the condition of unchanged reliability.

[0097] The daily electricity consumption characteristic indicators are arranged from largest to smallest as follows: Maximum daily electricity consumption (E) 最大 Daily effective electricity consumption (E) 有效 ), average daily electricity consumption (E) 平均 Daily guaranteed power consumption (E) 保证 ), minimum daily power consumption (E) 最小 ).

[0098] Maximum output (P) 最大 ), effective capacity (P) 有效 Average output (P) 平均 ), guaranteed output (P) 保证 Minimum output (P) 最小 )

[0099] Maximum output (P) 最大 ) represents the maximum hourly output throughout the year, and the minimum output (P) represents the maximum output throughout the year. 最小 ) represents the minimum hourly output throughout the year, and the average output (P) 平均 The total annual electricity consumption is divided by the total number of hours consumed throughout the year.

[0100] Effective capacity (P) 有效 The output corresponding to a certain cumulative energy consumption on the hourly output-cumulative energy consumption curve is usually selected as the output value at 95% of the cumulative energy consumption, representing that the output of new energy sources does not exceed P. 有效 The accumulated battery level reached 95%.

[0101] Guaranteed output (P) 保证The output corresponding to a certain cumulative frequency on the hourly output-cumulative frequency curve is usually selected as the output value at 95% cumulative frequency, which means that the output of new energy is not less than this value for 95% of the time, that is, the output of new energy power generation with a confidence level of 95%.

[0102] (4) Monthly electricity distribution curve

[0103] Monthly electricity consumption distribution is used to reflect the monthly changes in electricity consumption, that is:

[0104]

[0105] In the formula, T m Monthly electricity consumption for new energy sources; Q m Actual monthly power generation from new energy sources; C represents installed capacity of new energy sources.

[0106] (5) Daily electricity consumption - cumulative frequency (f e )

[0107] Daily power generation-cumulative frequency is the ratio of the number of days in the year that a certain day's power generation hours occur to the total number of days in the year.

[0108]

[0109] In the formula, f e Daily electricity consumption - cumulative frequency, D pr Daily electricity consumption E (d) In E (d)≥ E (1) The interval represents the number of days in the whole year, where D is the total number of days in the whole year.

[0110] (6) Daily electricity consumption - cumulative electricity consumption (Q) E )

[0111] Daily electricity consumption - cumulative electricity consumption is the ratio of the total electricity consumption of a certain day to the total electricity consumption of the whole year.

[0112]

[0113] (7) Hourly output - cumulative frequency (f) P )

[0114] Hourly output-cumulative frequency is the ratio of the number of times a certain output occurs throughout the year to the total number of hours throughout the year. It represents the output that a new energy source can achieve at this frequency.

[0115]

[0116] In the formula, N PR Contributing to new energy P (t) In P (t) ≥P (1)The number of times the interval appears throughout the year, where H is the number of hours throughout the year.

[0117] (8) Hourly output - Cumulative power (Q) p )

[0118] Hourly output - cumulative electricity is the ratio of the total output of new energy sources less than or equal to a certain output to the annual electricity, indicating the percentage of cumulative electricity generated by new energy sources that does not exceed a certain output.

[0119]

[0120] The preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail above with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments. Within the scope of knowledge possessed by those skilled in the art, various changes can be made without departing from the spirit of the present invention. These changes involve related technologies well known to those skilled in the art, and all of them fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0121] Many other changes and modifications can be made without departing from the concept and scope of this invention. It should be understood that this invention is not limited to the specific embodiments, and the scope of this invention is defined by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A power balance method for large-scale grid integration scenarios based on the value of renewable energy capacity, characterized in that, It includes the following steps: Step (1): Conduct a year-round analysis, arrange maintenance plans for hydropower and thermal power plants, and determine the day with the minimum system adequacy as the power balance control day; Step (2): Based on the operation results of the energy storage power source, determine whether its power volume meets the requirements for participating in the balance; when the energy storage scale or hydropower regulation capacity is strong, the power of new energy during off-peak hours is transferred to peak hours for power generation through energy storage, and at this time, a power balance scenario is constructed. Step (3): Constructing a power balance scenario: The construction of a power balance scenario is divided into the construction of a new energy power balance scenario, the selection of new energy reserve capacity, and the simulation of power balance scenario production and operation with the minimum power gap as the objective function; Step (4): Based on the production operation simulation results, determine the power output during peak hours and compile a power balance sheet; In step (3), the construction of the new energy power balance scenario is specifically as follows: The power balance scenario is a 24-hour day on the power balance control day. Power balance is the balance at the moment of maximum load in this scenario. The construction of a new energy power balance scenario is divided into the selection of new energy guarantee rate, selection of typical daily curve, daily power conversion, and peak-hour output correction, which are carried out in the following steps: S301: Select the new energy guarantee rate, and based on the characteristics of new energy power generation and the planned annual wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity, consider the coupling of wind and solar power output, and calculate the planned annual wind and solar superimposed power output. S302: The method for selecting the typical daily power output curve is to select the full-day power output data with a 100% guarantee rate as the typical daily curve; S303: Based on the combined wind and solar power output of the planned year, and under the selected renewable energy guarantee rate, calculate the daily power generation and peak load output of the renewable energy corresponding to the guarantee rate; S304: Correct the peak output on the typical daily power output curve and convert it to other times other than the peak time according to the daily power difference, so as to obtain the new energy power balance scenario under this guarantee rate. Step S301 further includes the steps of calculating the annual maximum power generation hours T, the daily power generation E under different conditions, and the power output P under different conditions. Step S302 also includes the step of integrating the typical sunrise force P into a typical sunrise force curve. In step S303, the daily electricity consumption-cumulative frequency f is calculated. e Daily power consumption - cumulative power consumption Q E The calculation lays the groundwork for correcting the peak output on the typical daily output curve in the next step. In step S304, the hourly output - cumulative frequency f is calculated. P Output per hour - Cumulative power Q p The calculations are performed to determine the output at peak times on a typical daily power output curve, and then proportionally convert the output to other times besides peak times according to the daily power difference, thereby obtaining the new energy power balance scenario under this guarantee rate. In the annual maximum power generation hours T, the annual maximum power generation hours is the ratio of the annual power generation of new energy to the installed capacity of new energy, which is used to reflect the overall power generation level of new energy. （1）； In equation (1), T represents the maximum annual power generation hours; Q y Annual power generation from new energy sources; C represents installed capacity of new energy sources; Daily electricity E is the ratio of daily power generation from new energy sources to the installed capacity of new energy sources; （2）； In equation (2), E represents daily electricity consumption; Q d C represents the daily power generation of new energy sources; C represents the installed capacity of new energy sources. Maximum daily electricity consumption E 最大 The maximum daily electricity consumption for the entire year, and the minimum daily electricity consumption E. 最小 The minimum daily electricity consumption throughout the year, E is the average daily electricity consumption. 平均 The total annual electricity consumption is divided by the number of days in the year. Daily effective electricity E 有效 To determine the daily electricity consumption corresponding to a certain cumulative electricity consumption on the daily electricity consumption-cumulative electricity consumption curve, the daily electricity consumption value at 95% of the cumulative electricity consumption is selected, representing that the daily electricity consumption of new energy sources does not exceed E. 有效 The accumulated battery level reached 95%; Daily guaranteed power E 保证 To determine the daily electricity consumption at a certain cumulative frequency on the daily electricity consumption-cumulative frequency curve, the electricity value at 95% cumulative frequency is selected. This means that the daily electricity consumption of new energy sources is not less than this value on 95% of the days, which is equivalent to the daily electricity consumption of new energy sources with a confidence level of 95%. Maximum output P 最大 The maximum output per hour throughout the year, and the minimum output P. 最小 The minimum hourly output throughout the year, average output P 平均 The total annual electricity consumption is divided by the total number of hours consumed throughout the year. Effective capacity P 有效 On the hourly output-cumulative power curve, the output corresponding to a certain cumulative power is selected, and the output value at 95% of the cumulative power is taken, representing that the output of new energy does not exceed P. 有效 The accumulated battery level reached 95%; Guarantee output P 保证 The output corresponding to a certain cumulative frequency on the hourly output-cumulative frequency curve is selected as the output value at 95% cumulative frequency. This means that the output of new energy is not less than this value for 95% of the time, which is the confidence level of new energy power generation output at 95%. In the monthly electricity consumption distribution curve, the monthly electricity consumption distribution is used to reflect the monthly changes in electricity consumption, that is: （3）； In equation (3), T m Monthly electricity consumption for new energy sources; Q m Actual monthly power generation from new energy sources; C represents installed capacity of new energy sources; Daily electricity consumption - cumulative frequency f e It is the ratio of the number of days in the year that a certain day's power generation hours occur to the total number of days in the year; （4）； In equation (4), f e Daily electricity consumption - cumulative frequency, D pr Daily electricity consumption E (d) In E (d) ≥E (1) The number of days in the interval throughout the year, where D is the total number of days in the year; Daily electricity consumption - Cumulative electricity consumption Q E It is the ratio of the total number of hours of power generation on a certain day (less than or equal to) to the total annual electricity generation. （5）； Q E =Q E1 +Q E2 Hourly output - cumulative frequency f P The ratio of the number of times a certain output occurs throughout the year to the total number of hours throughout the year is greater than or equal to the output of a new energy source. This indicates the output that the new energy source can achieve at this frequency. （6）； In equation (6), N pr Contributing to new energy P (t) In P (t) ≥P (1) The number of times the interval appears throughout the year, where H is the number of hours throughout the year; Hourly output - cumulative power Q p This is the ratio of the total output of new energy sources to the annual electricity consumption, where the output of new energy sources does not exceed a certain amount. （7）； Q p =Q P1 +Q P2 (8)。 2. The power balancing method for large-scale grid connection scenarios based on the value of new energy capacity as described in claim 1, characterized in that: In step (3), the selection process for the reserve capacity of new energy sources is as follows: In addition to meeting the system's minimum backup requirements, additional backup capacity is provided for the portion of renewable energy output that is damaged. The minimum backup capacity is the backup capacity required by the system to meet the minimum renewable energy power generation scenario under extreme weather conditions, assuming a 100% renewable energy guarantee rate. The reserve capacity of new energy sources is the additional reserve capacity required by the system to cope with the uncertainty of the output of new energy sources when other guarantee rates are selected. The power output of new energy sources that is damaged is the power output of new energy sources that exceeds the design guarantee rate of the new energy sources. The calculation method for the reserve capacity of new energy sources is as follows: First, determine the difference between the power output of the new energy sources that is damaged and the peak output of the new energy sources during the peak period when the power output is 100% guaranteed. Then, calculate the reserve capacity that the system needs to provide for this part of the power output of the new energy sources that is damaged.

3. The power balancing method for large-scale grid integration scenarios based on the value of renewable energy capacity as described in claim 1, characterized in that: In step (1), the power balance control day is the day with the maximum load in winter.

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