Coastal region production operation risk assessment method and system under sea fog influence

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of sea fog risk assessment, and discloses a coastal region production operation risk assessment method and system under the influence of sea fog, and the method comprises the steps: determining an assessment region, carrying out the grid division, and calculating the grid resolution; determining production operation types in the grids, and calculating space-time density and weight of each type of operation; calculating the visibility weight of each level in each grid, and determining the visibility distribution characteristics of each grid; dividing the influence risk level of each level of visibility on each type of production operation, and determining the influence risk value of each level of visibility for each type of production operation; and calculating the visibility risk degree value in each grid to obtain the space and time distribution of the coastal region production operation risk degree under the influence of the sea fog. By evaluating the feasibility of different production operations in different areas under the influence of sea fog, a basis can be provided for organization and deployment of the production operations, and the influence of the sea fog in the areas on various production operations is effectively evaluated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of sea fog risk assessment, and in particular relates to a method and system for assessing the risks of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog. Background Art

[0002] Risk assessments of production operations in coastal areas are mostly risk assessments for single offshore production operations, such as offshore oil production, offshore wind power platforms, and offshore rescue towing operations. Existing sea fog risk assessments are based on coastline distance, population density, and road distribution, without considering the different needs of production operations in different seasons, nor the different degrees of sea fog impact in different seasons. In the existing sea fog risk assessment technology, only a single level of visibility below 1,000 meters is considered for the weather phenomenon of sea fog, without considering the different sensitivities of different production operations to different levels of visibility; at the same time, using "foggy days" as the minimum time unit and using district and county-level administrative areas as the basic research unit, the assessment results are relatively rough, lacking in precision, and the data is less representative. In addition, the data used in meteorological disaster risk assessment technology are mostly reanalysis grid data, which have low resolution and cannot accurately reflect the actual characteristics of meteorological elements in different regions.

[0003] Through the above analysis, the problems and defects of the existing technology are as follows: the current risk assessment of production operations in coastal areas is mostly for risk assessment of single offshore production operations. The existing sea fog risk assessment does not take into account the needs of different production operations, nor does it take into account the different degrees of impact of sea fog in different seasons. At the same time, the data used in the existing assessment method has low accuracy and precision, and cannot accurately reflect the changes in the degree of impact of sea fog at different levels in different seasons on various production operations, and cannot provide refined production allocation suggestions. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to overcome the problems existing in the related art, the disclosed embodiment of the present invention provides a method and system for risk assessment of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog. The technical solution is as follows:

[0005] The present invention is implemented in this way: a method for assessing the risk of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog comprises:

[0006] S1, analysis of production operation distribution characteristics: determine the assessment area and divide it into grids, calculate the grid resolution; determine the types of production operations within the grid, and calculate the spatiotemporal density and weight of each operation;

[0007] S2, visibility distribution feature extraction: calculate the visibility weight of each level in each grid; calculate the product of the weight and the impact level to determine the visibility distribution characteristics of each grid in the assessment area;

[0008] S3, risk level division: divide the risk level of each level of visibility on each type of production operation, obtain the risk level assessment result, and determine the risk value of each type of production operation on each level of visibility;

[0009] S4, risk calculation and evaluation: calculate the visibility risk value of each level in each grid in each month, and obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of the risk of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog.

[0010] In step S1, the grid resolution is calculated, including:

[0011] Determine the assessment area, determine the grid division of the assessment area according to the distribution density of the visibility observation station network, and calculate the grid resolution D, which is expressed as:

[0012]

[0013] Where, d min is the minimum distance between adjacent visibility observation sites. The center of the grid is the location of this visibility observation site. The overlapping and blank parts of the grids are divided by the line connecting the minimum distances between the boundaries of adjacent grids.

[0014] In step S1, the spatiotemporal density of each operation is calculated, including:

[0015] Analyze the distribution of production operations in each grid area and determine the types of production operations and the number of each type n in the grid i , calculate the density S of each operation space i , the expression is:

[0016]

[0017] In the formula, i is the serial number of each production operation in the grid;

[0018] Analyze each production operation and determine the number of operating days in each month of the yeara ij and duration of work ij , calculate the operation time density s ij , the expression is:

[0019] s ij =a ij ×b ij

[0020] Where j is the month number.

[0021] In step S1, the weight of each job is calculated, and the expression is:

[0022]

[0023] In the formula, Gij is the weight of each industry in the grid for each month, and N is the total number of job types in the grid.

[0024] In step S2, the visibility weight of each level in each grid is calculated, including:

[0025] The sea fog visibility station observation data are divided into 6 levels: no fog > 10km, light fog 1-10km, heavy fog 0.5-1km, dense fog 0.2-0.5km, extremely dense fog 0.05-0.2km and extremely dense fog 0-0.05km, with impact levels of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively.

[0026] Furthermore, the calculation of visibility weights at each level in each grid includes:

[0027] Analyze historical observation data to determine the visibility weight g of each level in each grid each month j ;

[0028]

[0029] In the formula, f j is the number of times a single level of visibility occurs at all stations in the grid each month in the hourly visibility observation data, M j It is the total amount of visibility data of all stations in the grid in each month.

[0030] In step S3, the risk level of each level of visibility affecting each type of production operation is divided into:

[0031] The impact risk of each level of visibility on each type of production operation is set as: no impact, very small impact, small impact, strong impact, very strong impact and unable to operate, and the risk levels are 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively.

[0032] In step S3, the risk level assessment result is obtained, including:

[0033] Design an expert scoring table to investigate various types of production operations and obtain the risk level assessment results of each visibility level affecting the production operations of that category;

[0034] Take the average of the visibility impact risk scores of all levels of this type of production operation as the visibility impact risk value X of this type of production operation at each level. i .

[0035] In step S4, the risk calculation and evaluation includes:

[0036] According to the production operation weight G ij , visibility affects risk value X i and the visibility weight g j, calculate the visibility risk value X of each level of each type of production operation in each grid in each month ij , the expression is:

[0037] X ij =G ij × i ×g j

[0038] The sum of visibility risk values ​​at all levels is calculated to obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of production operation risks in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog.

[0039] Another object of the invention is to provide a risk assessment system for production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog, which is used to regulate the risk assessment method for production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog, and the system comprises:

[0040] The production operation distribution characteristics analysis module is used to determine the evaluation area and divide it into grid points, calculate the grid resolution; determine the types of production operations within the grid, and calculate the spatiotemporal density and weight of each operation;

[0041] The visibility distribution feature extraction module is used to calculate the visibility weight of each level in each grid; calculate the product of the weight and the impact level to determine the visibility distribution feature of each grid in the assessment area;

[0042] The risk level classification module is used to classify the risk level of each level of visibility, obtain the risk level assessment results of each expert, and determine the risk value of the impact of this type of production operation on each level of visibility;

[0043] The risk calculation and evaluation module is used to calculate the visibility risk value of each grid point at each level in each month, and finally obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of the risk of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog.

[0044] Combining all the above technical solutions, the advantages and positive effects of the present invention are as follows:

[0045] The present invention provides a sea fog risk assessment method for various regional production operations and the risks of different levels of visibility, so as to assess the risks of different production operations at different times caused by different levels of visibility, and provide a more refined reference for the arrangement of land and sea production operations in coastal areas. The present invention investigates and analyzes the distribution of production operation types, the spatial and temporal characteristics of multi-level visibility distribution, and the risk of each level of visibility affecting various production operations, calculates the regional grid risk distribution, and thus gives the refined production operation risk under the influence of sea fog in the assessment area, thereby providing a basis for the annual arrangement of production operations.

[0046] This method is a quantitative risk assessment method, which evaluates the feasibility of different production operations in different regions under the influence of sea fog, can provide a basis for the organization and deployment of production operations, effectively evaluate the impact of sea fog in the region on various production operations, and strengthen the risk management of production operations in seasons and regions with frequent sea fog. By providing refined risk assessment products for various types of production operations, it can provide a reference basis for production schedule scheduling, resource allocation, energy efficiency management, etc. for the production industry in the sea fog-affected area, which can effectively save production resources and improve production efficiency. The present invention provides a refined meteorological disaster risk assessment method for coastal areas, provides a new regional division scheme for the efficient use of high-precision observation data, and performs graded risk assessment on a single meteorological disaster (sea fog), which is significantly optimized on the basis of the binary assessment of risk "yes or no", and the risk is graded and quantified, which can be combined with observation and forecast products to provide a risk assessment basis for the production industry to effectively avoid potential risks and effectively improve production efficiency in low-risk areas.

[0047] The present invention classifies and quantifies the risks of sea fog to production operations, and clearly points out the potential risks of sea fog to some low-risk industries. For example, for hoisting operations in coastal ports, production enterprises generally believe that sea fog has no effect on their operations. However, according to the survey of the present invention, when visibility is less than 100 meters, it will cause great risks to overhead hoisting operations. Therefore, for the sea fog phenomenon with an impact level of 5 (the highest level) in the present invention, the risk level will also reach level 5 (the highest level), and for low visibility phenomena below level 4, the risk level is also lower. Therefore, in coastal port areas, areas with a higher visibility weight of level 5 need to carefully arrange overhead hoisting operations in months with higher visibility risk values; in addition, the present method also provides a basis for relaxing the production time period restrictions on some industries with high sea fog impact and improving production efficiency. For example, for highway transportation industries in areas with frequent sea fog, temporary speed limits or route adjustments are often made due to fog. However, the survey of the present method shows that the risk of high-speed driving in sea fog phenomena with visibility impact levels of 0-2 is low, and no production adjustments are required to prevent reduced production efficiency. The present invention improves the precision of sea fog risk assessment by quantifying the risks of different levels of sea fog to production operations at different times, and overcomes the technical bias that has no application effect on sea fog risk assessment in the past. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0048] The accompanying drawings herein are incorporated in and constitute a part of the specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the present disclosure, and together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the present disclosure;

[0049] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for risk assessment of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0050] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the specific embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. In the following description, many specific details are set forth to facilitate a full understanding of the present invention. However, the present invention can be implemented in many other ways different from those described herein, and those skilled in the art can make similar improvements without violating the connotation of the present invention, so the present invention is not limited by the specific implementation disclosed below.

[0051] The innovation of the present invention is that the present invention includes the spatial distribution and temporal characteristics of different levels of sea fog, calculates the multi-level sea fog risk in space and time, and provides the spatiotemporal characteristics of different levels of sea fog risk for various production operations, providing a more refined reference for the arrangement of production operations. First, the grid division method makes the most of the observation data of all visibility stations, and performs irregular grid division according to the station distribution to make the calculation results more accurate. Secondly, the comprehensive calculation of the impact of various operations and various levels of low visibility can accurately give the degree of impact on different types of production operations in different regions and at different times, providing a refined basis for the arrangement of the operation area and operation period of the production operation.

[0052] Embodiment 1, as Figure 1 As shown, the risk assessment method for production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog provided by the embodiment of the present invention specifically includes the following steps:

[0053] S1, analysis of production operation distribution characteristics: determine the assessment area and divide it into grids, calculate the grid resolution; determine the types of production operations within the grid, and calculate the spatiotemporal density and weight of each operation;

[0054] S2, visibility distribution feature extraction: calculate the visibility weight of each level in each grid; calculate the product of the weight and the impact level to determine the visibility distribution characteristics of each grid in the assessment area;

[0055] S3, risk level division: divide the risk level of each level of visibility on each type of production operation, obtain the risk level assessment result, and determine the risk value of each type of production operation on each level of visibility;

[0056] S4, risk calculation and evaluation: calculate the visibility risk value of each level in each grid in each month, and obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of the risk of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog.

[0057] Take the lifting operation in a port area of ​​Jiaozhou Bay as an example. Its location is on the south side of the Qingdao undersea tunnel.

[0058] S1, according to the distribution of visibility observation stations in Qingdao, this location is divided into a station grid (the distance between the station and the station is about 6km); the distribution density of this type of production operation in the grid is relatively high, and it is about 15% after investigation; the operation time density is relatively evenly distributed throughout the year, with no seasonal changes, and the operation time density is about 36 hours in each month; therefore, the weight of this industry in this grid each month is 5.4.

[0059] S2, using the hourly visibility observation data from 2015 to 2023, the visibility weights of six levels are calculated, and the results are shown in Table 1.

[0060] Table 1 Visibility weights for each level

[0061]

[0062] S3, for this industry, the design experts’ scores are shown in Table 2.

[0063] Table 2 Expert scoring table

[0064]

[0065] Three experts were selected from the lifting operation management personnel in the port area to give scores, and the average scores are shown in Table 3 below.

[0066] Table 3 Expert scoring table

[0067]

[0068] S4, combined with industry weight, visibility weight, and visibility impact risk, the final calculation results show that the time distribution of the risk of hoisting operations in the port area within the grid under the influence of sea fog is shown in Table 4.

[0069] Table 4 Time distribution of operation risk

[0070]

[0071] S1, Investigation on distribution characteristics of production operations.

[0072] 1.1 Determine the assessment area. According to the distribution density of visibility observation data, determine the grid division of the assessment area and calculate the grid resolution D in km:

[0073]

[0074] Where, d min is the minimum distance between adjacent visibility observation sites. The center of the grid is the location of this visibility observation site. The overlapping and blank parts of the grids are divided by the line connecting the minimum distances between the boundaries of adjacent grids.

[0075] This regional grid division method is a dynamic grid division method based on the minimum distance dmin between irregularly scattered visibility stations. The area is divided into grids of indefinite number and size. For areas without stations within the 20km*20km range, no grid division is performed and no evaluation is performed.

[0076] The calculation formula of the grid resolution D is first created by the present invention, and can dynamically divide the grid according to the distribution of visibility sites, and can be applied to all visibility observation site data to the maximum extent.

[0077] 1.2 Investigate the distribution of production operations in each grid area and determine the types of production operations and the number of each type n in the grid i , calculate the density S of each operation space i , the expression is:

[0078]

[0079] In the formula, i is the serial number of each production operation in the grid;

[0080] Using each working space density S i It can show the distribution density of each production operation in the grid.

[0081] 1.3 Analyze each production operation and determine the number of working days in each month of the year. ij and duration of work ij , calculate the operation time density s ij , the expression is:

[0082] s ij =a ij ×b ij

[0083] Where j is the month number.

[0084] 1.4 Calculate the weight of each job, the expression is:

[0085]

[0086] In the formula, G ij is the weight of each industry in the grid for each month, N is the total number of job types in the grid; using the weight G ij The concentration of each production operation within the grid is represented by combining space and time.

[0087] S2, Investigation of visibility distribution characteristics.

[0088] 2.1 According to my country's standards, the sea fog visibility station observation data is divided into 6 levels: no fog>10km, light fog 1-10km, heavy fog 0.5-1km, dense fog 0.2-0.5km, strong dense fog 0.05-0.2km, and extremely strong dense fog 0-0.05km, with impact levels of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively;

[0089] 2.2 Organize historical observation data and determine the visibility weight g of each level in each grid each month j ;

[0090]

[0091] In the formula, f j is the number of times a single level of visibility occurs at all stations in the grid each month in the hourly visibility observation data, M j It is the total amount of visibility data of all stations in the grid in each month.

[0092] Using the visibility weight g of each level in each grid each month j , which can show the frequency / impact frequency of each level of low visibility phenomenon in the grid.

[0093] 2.3 Calculate the product of the weight and the impact level to determine the monthly visibility distribution characteristics of each grid in the assessment area.

[0094] S3, risk level classification.

[0095] 3.1 Set the risk of each level of visibility affecting each type of production operation to four levels: 0. No impact, 1. Very small impact, 2. Small impact, 3. Strong impact, 4. Very strong impact, 5. Unable to operate;

[0096] 3.2 Design an expert scoring table, conduct expert surveys on various types of production operations, and obtain the risk level assessment results of each expert on the impact of each visibility level on the type of production operations;

[0097] 3.3 Take the average value of the risk scores of all experts on the visibility impact of this level of production operation as the risk value x of the visibility impact of this type of production operation on each level.

[0098] S4, risk calculation and evaluation.

[0099] According to the production operation weight G ij , visibility affects risk value X i and the visibility weight g j , calculate the visibility risk value X of each level of each type of production operation in each grid in each month ij , the expression is:

[0100] Xij =G ij × i ×g j

[0101] The sum of visibility risk values ​​at all levels is calculated to obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of production operation risks in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog.

[0102] The method of calculating the visibility risk value using the three weights in the present invention is proposed for the first time.

[0103] Embodiment 2, the risk assessment system for production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog provided by the embodiment of the present invention comprises:

[0104] The production operation distribution characteristics analysis module is used to determine the evaluation area and divide it into grid points, calculate the grid resolution; determine the types of production operations within the grid, and calculate the spatiotemporal density and weight of each operation;

[0105] The visibility distribution feature extraction module is used to calculate the visibility weight of each level in each grid; calculate the product of the weight and the impact level to determine the visibility distribution feature of each grid in the assessment area;

[0106] The risk level classification module is used to classify the risk level of each level of visibility, obtain the risk level assessment results of each expert, and determine the risk value of the impact of this type of production operation on each level of visibility;

[0107] The risk calculation and evaluation module is used to calculate the visibility risk value of each grid point at each level in each month, and finally obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of the risk of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog.

[0108] The above description is only a preferred specific implementation manner of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements made by any technician familiar with the technical field within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention and within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be covered within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for risk assessment of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog, characterized in that: The method includes: S1, analysis of production operation distribution characteristics: determine the assessment area and divide it into grids, calculate the grid resolution; determine the types of production operations within the grid, and calculate the spatiotemporal density and weight of each operation; S2, visibility distribution feature extraction: calculate the visibility weight of each level in each grid; calculate the product of the weight and the impact level to determine the visibility distribution characteristics of each grid in the assessment area; S3, risk level division: divide the risk level of each level of visibility on each type of production operation, obtain the risk level assessment result, and determine the risk value of each type of production operation on each level of visibility; S4, risk calculation and evaluation: calculate the visibility risk value of each level in each grid in each month, and obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of the risk of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog.

2. The method for risk assessment of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step S1, the grid resolution is calculated, including: Determine the assessment area, determine the grid division of the assessment area according to the distribution density of the visibility observation station network, and calculate the grid resolution D, which is expressed as: Where, d min is the minimum distance between adjacent visibility observation sites. The center of the grid is the location of this visibility observation site. The overlapping and blank parts of the grids are divided by the line connecting the minimum distances between the boundaries of adjacent grids.

3. The method for risk assessment of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog according to claim 2 is characterized in that: In step S1, the spatiotemporal density of each operation is calculated, including: Analyze the distribution of production operations in each grid area and determine the types of production operations and the number of each type n in the grid i , calculate the density S of each operation space i , the expression is: In the formula, i is the serial number of each production operation in the grid; Analyze each production operation and determine the number of operating days in each month of the yeara ij and duration of work ij , calculate the operation time density s ij , the expression is: s ij =a ij ×b ij Where j is the month number.

4. The method for risk assessment of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog according to claim 3 is characterized in that: In step S1, the weight of each job is calculated, and the expression is: In the formula, G ij is the weight of each industry in the grid for each month, and N is the total number of job types in the grid.

5. The method for risk assessment of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step S2, the visibility weight of each level in each grid is calculated, including: The sea fog visibility station observation data are divided into 6 levels: no fog > 10km, light fog 1-10km, heavy fog 0.5-1km, dense fog 0.2-0.5km, extremely dense fog 0.05-0.2km and extremely dense fog 0-0.05km, with impact levels of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively.

6. The method for risk assessment of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog according to claim 5 is characterized in that: The calculation of visibility weights at each level in each grid includes: Analyze historical observation data to determine the visibility weight g of each level in each grid each month j ; In the formula, f j is the number of times a single level of visibility occurs at all stations in the grid each month in the hourly visibility observation data, M j It is the total amount of visibility data of all stations in the grid in each month.

7. The method for risk assessment of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step S3, the risk level of each level of visibility affecting each type of production operation is divided into: The impact risk of each level of visibility on each type of production operation is set as: no impact, very small impact, small impact, strong impact, very strong impact and unable to operate, and the risk levels are 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively.

8. The method for risk assessment of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step S3, the risk level assessment result is obtained, including: Design an expert scoring table to investigate various types of production operations and obtain the risk level assessment results of each visibility level affecting the production operations of that category; Take the average of the visibility impact risk scores of all levels of this type of production operation as the visibility impact risk value X of this type of production operation at each level. i .

9. The method for risk assessment of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S4, the risk calculation and evaluation includes: According to the production operation weight G ij , visibility affects risk value X i and the visibility weight g j , calculate the visibility risk value X of each level of each type of production operation in each grid in each month ij , the expression is: X ij =G ij ×x i ×g j The sum of visibility risk values ​​at all levels is calculated to obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of production operation risks in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog.

10. A risk assessment system for production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog, characterized in that: The system is used to regulate the risk assessment method for production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog as described in any one of claims 1 to 9, and the system comprises: The production operation distribution characteristics analysis module is used to determine the evaluation area and divide it into grid points, calculate the grid resolution; determine the types of production operations within the grid, and calculate the spatiotemporal density and weight of each operation; The visibility distribution feature extraction module is used to calculate the visibility weight of each level in each grid; calculate the product of the weight and the impact level to determine the visibility distribution feature of each grid in the assessment area; The risk level classification module is used to classify the risk level of each level of visibility, obtain the risk level assessment results of each expert, and determine the risk value of the impact of this type of production operation on each level of visibility; The risk calculation and evaluation module is used to calculate the visibility risk value of each grid point at each level in each month, and finally obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of the risk of production operations in coastal areas under the influence of sea fog.

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