Quantitative analysis method for carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consumption industry

Abstract

The invention discloses a high-energy-consumption industry carbon reduction potential quantitative analysis method, and belongs to the field of high-energy-consumption industry low-carbon transformation simulation analysis. The energy consumption mode, the production process, the carbon emission condition and the overall benefit to the environment and the society of the high-energy-consumption industry under different economic environments and policy backgrounds are investigated and analyzed, and the potential of each industry in the process of realizing the carbon emission reduction target is determined by quantifying key indexes such as the carbon reduction intensity and the marginal carbon reduction cost of the industry; secondly, a scientific and comprehensive carbon reduction potential evaluation index system is established by integrating the influences of economic benefits and environmental benefits on the carbon reduction willingness of the high-energy-consumption industry, the index system not only comprises economic indexes such as the annual profit rate and the annual return on investment, but also introduces brand new evaluation indexes such as the'carbon reduction index 'and the'standard marginal carbon reduction cost'; the carbon reduction capability and the cost-benefit relationship of each industry are accurately quantified; and finally, by constructing an analytic hierarchy model, carrying out comprehensive scoring and comparative analysis on the carbon reduction potentials of five types of typical high-energy-consumption industries (cement, steel, petrochemical engineering, electric power and coal industries), and evaluating relative priorities of various industries under different carbon reduction paths through a comprehensive scoring result to obtain the most potential carbon reduction path and strategy. In addition, in combination with expert evaluation and data analysis, selection of carbon reduction strategies is more scientific and practical.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of low-carbon transformation simulation analysis of high-energy-consuming industries, and specifically relates to a quantitative analysis method for the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries. Background Art

[0002] In today's society, energy demand is growing, the contradiction between energy supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent, and environmental pollution is becoming increasingly severe. How to cope with climate warming, alleviate the energy crisis, improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of energy, and reduce polluting gas emissions has become a social problem that needs to be solved urgently in my country and even in the world. In 2020, the total energy consumption of China's high-energy-consuming industries accounted for about 50% of the total energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions accounted for more than 70%. As an important pillar of the national economy, high-energy-consuming industries play an indispensable role in social development and economic growth, and should bear more responsibility for emission reduction. Therefore, how to scientifically and effectively measure the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries has become an important challenge for my country to achieve its carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.

[0003] In order to achieve green and low-carbon development and implement the national "dual carbon" strategy, my country has adopted a series of low-carbon emission reduction technologies to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in high-energy-consuming industries. These technologies not only help reduce carbon dioxide emissions, but also promote the efficient use of resources and the vigorous development of new energy industries. However, how to find the optimal balance between multiple technical paths, economic benefits and environmental benefits, and evaluate the carbon reduction potential through scientific quantitative methods, is a difficult problem that needs to be solved urgently. Therefore, how to comprehensively and systematically evaluate the carbon reduction potential of various high-energy-consuming industries through scientific and reasonable analysis methods, and provide decision support for government decision-making and corporate low-carbon transformation, has become the focus of current research.

[0004] However, there are still multiple difficulties in achieving accurate quantification and analysis of the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries. Existing studies have focused on single-dimensional analysis and have not fully covered the synergistic effects of multiple benefits. This limitation weakens the guiding value of the evaluation results in practical applications. Therefore, in order to accurately capture the all-round benefits of carbon emission reduction, the present invention takes into account both economic and environmental benefits from the perspective of comprehensive evaluation, and constructs an evaluation index system for the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries. Unlike previous evaluation systems that only focus on a single dimension, the model of the present invention comprehensively considers economic and environmental benefits, covering multi-dimensional indicators such as industry profit margins and carbon reduction ratios, and also incorporates two new indicators, "benchmark marginal carbon reduction cost" and "carbon reduction index", into the evaluation system, further improving the comprehensiveness of the evaluation. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of the deficiencies in the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for quantitatively analyzing the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries, thereby solving the problems in the prior art.

[0006] The purpose of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions:

[0007] A quantitative analysis method for carbon reduction potential in high energy-consuming industries.

[0008] Combining the actual production characteristics and CO2 emission reduction status of high-energy-consuming industries, a series of economic and environmental indicators are selected as the basis for evaluating the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries;

[0009] Based on the selected economic and environmental benefit indicators of each high-energy-consuming industry, an indicator system for analyzing and evaluating the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries is constructed. While ensuring the comprehensiveness of the evaluation, the logic and operability between the indicators are ensured, providing a solid theoretical framework for the quantitative analysis of the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries.

[0010] Using the analytic hierarchy process, the carbon reduction potential analysis process of high-energy-consuming industries is divided into multiple levels. By comprehensively scoring and comparing the carbon reduction potential of different high-energy-consuming industries, the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries can be quantitatively represented.

[0011] Furthermore, the method for quantitatively analyzing the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries is characterized in that the carbon reduction potential evaluation index system of high-energy-consuming industries is as follows:

[0012] The construction of the marginal carbon reduction cost curve for high-energy-consuming industries has economic, environmental and other benefits. In order to accurately capture the all-round benefits of carbon emission reduction, the present invention takes into account the economic and environmental benefits from the perspective of comprehensive evaluation, and constructs an evaluation index system for the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries. Different from the previous evaluation system that only focused on a single dimension, the model of the present invention comprehensively considers economic and environmental benefits, covering multi-dimensional indicators such as industry profit margins and carbon reduction ratios, and also incorporates two new indicators, "benchmark marginal carbon reduction cost" and "carbon reduction index", into the evaluation system, further improving the comprehensiveness of the evaluation. This evaluation system can not only quantify the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries, but also provide a more valuable theoretical basis for industry decision-making, filling the gap in existing research on the comprehensive evaluation of carbon reduction potential in high-energy-consuming industries. See Table 1 for specific indicators.

[0013] Table 1 Carbon reduction potential assessment system for high energy consumption industries

[0014]

[0015] Furthermore, the method for quantitatively analyzing the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries is characterized in that the calculation formula of the economic benefit index in the carbon reduction potential evaluation index of high-energy-consuming industries is as follows:

[0016] Carbon reduction measures are often accompanied by large initial investments and long-term maintenance costs. Without economic benefits, it is difficult for the industry to persist in emission reduction in the long term. In order to measure the economic benefits brought by energy-saving and emission reduction technologies in high-energy-consuming industries, 9 indicators are selected to form an economic benefit system. The calculation method of each indicator is as follows:

[0017] (1) Industry annual profit margin

[0018] The industry's annual profit rate refers to the ratio of the annual profit obtained by high-energy-consuming industries through production and operation activities in one year to their annual income. This indicator is used to measure the profitability of the industry and reflect its economic benefits in business operations. The specific values ​​can be found in the annual development reports of various industries.

[0019] (2) Benchmark values ​​of marginal carbon reduction costs under different carbon reduction ratios

[0020] According to the marginal emission reduction cost curve of each high-energy-consuming industry, the marginal emission reduction cost of each carbon reduction ratio can be calculated. The higher the carbon reduction ratio, the higher the corresponding carbon reduction benchmark value, and the industry's willingness to reduce emissions will decrease as the carbon reduction benchmark value increases. The fitting formula for the marginal emission reduction cost curve of high-energy-consuming industries is as follows:

[0021]

[0022] Where: R represents the emission reduction ratio, that is, the ratio of the industry’s emission reduction to the industry’s total CO2 emissions. Assuming that the industry’s total CO2 emissions are A Total , the industry emission reduction is C Total , the unit is 10,000 tons, then the emission reduction ratio can be expressed as C Total / A Total , unit is %.

[0023] (3) Average annual return on investment

[0024] For emission reduction technologies in various industries, the annual return on investment is defined as the ratio of the profit that the industry obtains each year from the capital invested in a certain emission reduction technology. This indicator is used to evaluate the capital utilization efficiency and investment return level of the industry, reflecting the relationship between the profit generated by the industry's annual operation and the initial investment. The mean is the average of the investment return rates of various emission reduction technologies selected by each industry, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0025]

[0026] Where: ROI AVR represents the average annual return on investment of the industry, in %; n represents the total number of emission reduction technologies screened by the industry; IC i It represents the annual income brought by emission reduction of technology i, in ten thousand yuan; IVC i Represents the total investment cost of technology i, in ten thousand yuan.

[0027] (4) Average annual energy saving benefits

[0028] Energy saving refers to the amount of energy saved by reducing energy consumption when meeting the same production needs. The use of advanced emission reduction technologies can effectively reduce energy usage and bring certain economic benefits. The mean is the average value of the energy saving benefits of various emission reduction technologies selected by high-energy-consuming industries. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0029]

[0030] (5) Average annual energy saving benefits

[0031] For the emission reduction technologies of various high-energy-consuming industries, the total annual emission reduction cost can be defined as the sum of the economic costs invested in emission reduction technologies by the industry in order to achieve the total emission reduction target within one year. This cost reflects the financial expenditure required by the industry to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and is an important indicator for evaluating the economic feasibility of emission reduction strategies. The calculation formulas for the average, maximum and minimum annual emission reduction costs used in this description are as follows:

[0032]

[0033] Where: TOER AVR ,TOER max and TOER min They represent the average, maximum and minimum annual emission reduction total cost respectively, in units of ten thousand yuan; year represents the average investment period of the technology, which is 15 years in this invention.

[0034] Furthermore, the method for quantitatively analyzing the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries is characterized in that the calculation formula of the environmental benefit index in the carbon reduction potential evaluation index of high-energy-consuming industries is as follows:

[0035] As the problem of climate change intensifies, high-energy-consuming industries are required to take into account ecological and environmental protection while pursuing economic benefits. Therefore, in order to quantify the actual impact of emission reduction measures on the ecological environment, it is crucial to design indicators at the environmental benefit level. The eight indicators of this invention constitute the environmental benefit assessment, and the specific calculation method of each indicator is as follows:

[0036] (1) Carbon Reduction Index

[0037] In order to quantify the relationship between carbon emission reduction, total emission reduction and marginal carbon reduction cost in the process of implementing carbon reduction measures in high-energy-consuming industries, a carbon reduction index is defined to represent the environmental benefits of additional emission reduction achieved by the industry at a specific carbon emission level. The expression is as follows:

[0038]

[0039] Where: D represents the carbon reduction index; b represents the fitting parameter; C nRepresents the total annual carbon emissions of the industry, in 10,000 tons.

[0040] (2) Average annual energy saving potential of the industry

[0041] Annual energy saving potential is defined as the maximum amount of energy saving that can be achieved by optimizing energy consumption through emission reduction technology in the next five years. This indicator helps to formulate reasonable energy-saving policies and promote the development of high-energy-consuming industries towards lower energy consumption and more environmentally friendly directions. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0042]

[0043] Where: ESP AVR and ESP i They represent the average annual energy-saving potential of the industry and the energy-saving potential of technology i, both in tce.

[0044] 3) Annual emission reduction potential of the industry

[0045] Annual emission reduction potential is defined as the maximum CO2 emission reduction that can be achieved by emission reduction technology in the next five years through technological innovation, management optimization and other means. This indicator helps promote low-carbon development in high-energy-consuming industries. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0046]

[0047] ERP max =max(ERP i ) (10)

[0048] ERP min =min(ERP i ) (11)

[0049] Where: ERP AVR , ERP max and ERP min They respectively represent the average, maximum and minimum values ​​of annual carbon reduction potential, in 10,000 tons.

[0050] 4) Annual carbon reduction ratio of the industry

[0051] The annual carbon reduction ratio is defined as the ratio of the CO2 emission reduction of the emission reduction technology in a specific year to the benchmark emissions of the industry in the same period. This ratio is used to measure the industry's effectiveness in carbon reduction and reflects the relationship between the emission reduction of the technology and the overall emission level. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0052]

[0053] Where: CRR AVR ,CRR max and CRR minRespectively represent the average, maximum and minimum values ​​of annual carbon reduction ratio, in %; CR i It represents the annual carbon reduction of technology i, in 10,000 tons.

[0054] Furthermore, the method for quantitatively analyzing the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries is characterized in that the steps of using the hierarchical analysis method to comprehensively score the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries are as follows:

[0055] (1) Determine the hierarchical model

[0056] In order to achieve a comprehensive evaluation of the emission reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries, the hierarchical structure after AHP analysis is shown in Figure 2. Figure 1 .

[0057] (2) Establishing a judgment matrix

[0058] Taking the emission reduction potential analysis of high-energy-consuming industries as the research goal, the expert scoring method was applied to obtain the judgment matrix.

[0059] (3) Consistency test and weight calculation

[0060] Matlab R2022a was used to perform consistency test on the above judgment matrix, and the weight of each indicator in the established high-energy-consuming industry emission reduction potential analysis system could be calculated.

[0061] After obtaining the weights, the judgment matrix needs to be tested for consistency. Matlab R2022a is still used to calculate the maximum eigenvalue, consistency index and consistency ratio of each judgment matrix.

[0062] In the energy-saving potential assessment system for high-energy-consuming industries, when the consistency test between the target layer and the criterion layer, and between the criterion layer and the solution layer are both less than 0.1, it indicates that the judgment matrix established by the present invention is scientific and effective, and has good internal consistency.

[0063] Beneficial effects of the present invention:

[0064] 1. This invention overcomes the problem of insufficient consideration of multi-dimensional emission reduction factors in traditional evaluation methods, comprehensively considers the impact of economic and environmental benefits on the willingness of high-energy-consuming industries to reduce carbon emissions, and establishes a comprehensive carbon reduction potential evaluation index system. Incorporating key economic indicators such as marginal emission reduction costs and industry profit margins into the evaluation index system makes up for the problem of insufficient consideration of economic factors such as marginal carbon reduction costs in previous evaluations.

[0065] 2. This invention proposes new evaluation indicators such as "carbon reduction index" and "benchmark marginal carbon reduction cost", which accurately quantify the industry's carbon reduction capacity and cost-benefit relationship.

[0066] 3. The present invention introduces a dynamic evaluation and analysis method for carbon reduction potential in high-energy-consuming industries, which can reflect the implementation effects of different carbon reduction measures in real time and predict the changing trend of carbon reduction potential in the future. This invention not only enhances the sensitivity to changes in economic and technical feasibility during the implementation of carbon reduction measures in high-energy-consuming industries, but also provides more forward-looking carbon reduction strategic support for industry decision makers. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0067] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, for ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative work.

[0068] Figure 1 This is a framework diagram for analyzing marginal carbon reduction costs in high energy consumption industries of the present invention;

[0069] Figure 2-Figure 4 It is a marginal carbon reduction cost curve fitting model diagram established by the present invention for five typical high-energy-consuming industries. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0070] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0071] A method for quantitatively analyzing the carbon reduction potential of high energy-consuming industries, comprising the following steps:

[0072] S1. Combined with the actual production characteristics and CO2 emission reduction status of high-energy-consuming industries, a series of economic and environmental indicators are selected as the basis for evaluating the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries; and based on the selected economic and environmental benefit indicators of each high-energy-consuming industry, a carbon reduction potential analysis and evaluation index system for high-energy-consuming industries is constructed. The specific carbon reduction potential evaluation index system is shown in Table 1.

[0073] Table 1 Carbon reduction potential assessment system for high energy consumption industries

[0074]

[0075] S2, using the hierarchical analysis method, the carbon reduction potential analysis process of high-energy-consuming industries is divided into multiple levels, a hierarchical model and a judgment matrix are established, and a consistency test is performed. After the consistency test and sorting, the weight ranking of each economic benefit indicator and environmental benefit indicator is obtained, as shown in Table 2.

[0076] Table 2 Comprehensive ranking results of evaluation indicators

[0077]

[0078]

[0079] It can be seen from the above table that at the economic benefit level, the importance of the nine indicators is ranked as follows: C9>C5>C4>C3>C2>C1>C8>C6>C7; at the environmental benefit level, the importance of the eight indicators is ranked as follows: C10>C13>C16>C17>C11>C12>C14>C15.

[0080] In terms of economic benefits, the industry's annual profit margin ranks first with an indicator weight of 0.3072, reflecting the importance of economic benefits in carbon reduction assessment. When the profit margin is higher, the industry's willingness to reduce emissions is higher. This is because higher profit margins provide more financial space for each company in the industry, allowing them to invest in emission reduction measures, thereby reducing long-term operating costs and making the industry's carbon emissions meet policy requirements; the marginal carbon reduction costs when the carbon reduction ratio is 1.5%, 1.0% and 0.5% are ranked 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively. This is because as the carbon reduction ratio increases, the marginal carbon reduction cost of the industry increases exponentially. Higher marginal carbon reduction costs usually inhibit the industry's willingness to reduce emissions, because companies are highly sensitive to cost increases when pursuing economic benefits. Therefore, if higher carbon reduction targets can be achieved at lower costs, it can not only reduce the economic burden of companies, but also reflect the flexibility of the industry in emission reduction.

[0081] In terms of environmental benefits, the carbon reduction index ranks first with its indicator weight of 0.3270, indicating that it has a more significant impact on the overall carbon reduction target. The larger the carbon reduction index, the higher the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries. This means that the industry can achieve a higher proportion of emission reduction under the same conditions, reflecting its high efficiency in carbon reduction.

[0082] S3, after weight analysis and calculation, five high-energy-consuming industries, namely cement, steel, petrochemicals, electricity and coal, were selected for comprehensive evaluation of emission reduction potential; before comprehensive evaluation, the data of each indicator needs to be positively processed.

[0083] (1) Data Positiveness

[0084] In the comprehensive evaluation, data positive processing is one of the keys to ensure the comparability and rationality of each indicator. The larger some indicators are, the greater the positive impact on the decision-making goals, while the smaller some indicators are, the better the positive impact on the decision-making goals; the goal of data positive processing is to unify the indicator values ​​in different directions into positive indicators for comprehensive analysis. In the above-mentioned carbon reduction potential assessment system for high-energy-consuming industries, the rate of return on investment, the benchmark value of the marginal carbon reduction cost of the industry, the average annual total cost of energy conservation and emission reduction, and the highest / lowest annual energy conservation and emission reduction cost are all minimum indicators, and they need to be converted into maximum indicators to ensure the rationality of the comprehensive evaluation. The formula is as follows:

[0085]

[0086] Where: Indicates the result after transformation.

[0087] (2) Data standardization

[0088] In order to eliminate the influence of data scale and dimension on the comprehensive evaluation results, it is necessary to standardize the data and convert each indicator into a unified standard range to make it comparable. The formula is as follows:

[0089]

[0090] Where: z i Indicates the results after standardization.

[0091] S4, after the data are processed positively, the carbon reduction potential indicator system of high energy-consuming industries can be systematically and standardizedly evaluated. The comprehensive evaluation results are shown in Table 3 and Figure 2 .

[0092] Table 3 Comprehensive evaluation of carbon emission reduction potential of five high energy-consuming industries

[0093]

[0094] From Table 3 and Figure 2 It can be seen that among the five high-energy-consuming industries, the petrochemical industry has the highest comprehensive score for carbon reduction potential, and the cement industry ranks second. This shows that the petrochemical and cement industries have obvious advantages in emission reduction potential and economic benefits; relatively speaking, the steel and electric power industries have lower comprehensive scores, indicating that their emission reduction advantages are weaker and they will face more challenges in the future emission reduction path.

[0095] S5, the comprehensive score of high energy consumption industries is decomposed into economic benefit score and environmental benefit score. The score results of each level are as follows: Figure 3 and Figure 4 shown.

[0096] Example

[0097] This embodiment consists of five typical high-energy-consuming industries, namely cement, steel, petrochemical, power and coal industries. This example analysis can be used to prove the effectiveness of the method proposed in the present invention.

[0098] According to the steps of the present invention, the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries is analyzed. Taking five typical high-energy-consuming industries as examples, the economic and environmental benefits are comprehensively considered, and a comprehensive high-energy-consuming industry carbon reduction potential evaluation index system is constructed. After comprehensive evaluation by the analytic hierarchy process, it can be obtained that among the five high-energy-consuming industries, the petrochemical industry has the highest comprehensive score of 0.5124 points, which is 9.68% higher than the cement industry (comprehensive score of 0.4628 points) ranked second, indicating that the industry has significant advantages in emission reduction potential, can face lower marginal carbon reduction costs when implementing carbon reduction measures, and improve the economy of emission reduction measures. At the same time, when adopting carbon reduction technology, it can achieve a higher carbon reduction ratio, making a positive contribution to environmental sustainability. The cement industry has the second comprehensive score, indicating that the cement industry also has good carbon reduction potential. Its lower marginal carbon reduction cost indicates that in the process of achieving emission reduction targets, it can more effectively control the reduction of economic costs. The higher carbon reduction index (1.0022) of the cement industry also reflects its enthusiasm in promoting emission reduction measures and technology applications. Relatively speaking, the comprehensive scores of the steel and electric power industries are relatively low, at 0.2951 and 0.2741 points respectively, which are 42.41% and 46.56% lower than the 0.5124 points of the petrochemical industry. This shows the shortcomings of the two in terms of emission reduction potential, indicating that they still face great challenges in improving the flexibility and effectiveness of carbon reduction capabilities. Therefore, for the steel and electric power industries, it is urgent to formulate more specific and scientific emission reduction policies, focus on improving the overall emission reduction capabilities of the industry, promote the efficient use of resources, and thus promote the sustainable development of the economy while achieving more efficient environmental protection goals. The present invention can achieve a comprehensive evaluation and comparative analysis of the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries, help identify the carbon reduction willingness and potential of various industries, and provide practical support for promoting policy formulation and implementation.

[0099] In the description of this specification, the description with reference to the terms "one embodiment", "example", "specific example", etc. means that the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described in conjunction with the embodiment or example are included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the schematic representation of the above terms does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Moreover, the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described can be combined in any one or more embodiments or examples in a suitable manner.

[0100] The above shows and describes the basic principles, main features and advantages of the present invention. Those skilled in the art should understand that the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and the above embodiments and descriptions are only for explaining the principles of the present invention. Without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, the present invention may have various changes and improvements, and these changes and improvements all fall within the scope of the present invention to be protected.

Claims

1. A quantitative analysis method for carbon reduction potential in high energy consumption industries, characterized in that: The method is specifically as follows: Combining the actual production characteristics and CO2 emission reduction status of high-energy-consuming industries, a series of economic and environmental indicators are selected as the basis for evaluating the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries; Based on the selected economic and environmental benefit indicators of each high-energy-consuming industry, an indicator system for analyzing and evaluating the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries is constructed. While ensuring the comprehensiveness of the evaluation, the logic and operability between the indicators are ensured, providing a solid theoretical framework for the quantitative analysis of the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries. Using the analytic hierarchy process, the carbon reduction potential analysis process of high-energy-consuming industries is divided into multiple levels. By comprehensively scoring and comparing the carbon reduction potential of different high-energy-consuming industries, the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries can be quantitatively represented.

2. The method for quantitative analysis of carbon reduction potential in high energy consumption industries according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The carbon reduction potential analysis and evaluation indicator system for high energy-consuming industries is as follows: The construction of the marginal carbon reduction cost curve for high-energy-consuming industries has multiple economic and environmental benefits. In order to accurately capture the all-round benefits of carbon emission reduction, from the perspective of comprehensive evaluation, considering the two levels of economic benefits and environmental benefits, a carbon reduction potential evaluation index system for high-energy-consuming industries was constructed. The model comprehensively considers economic and environmental benefits, covers multi-dimensional indicators of industry profit margin and carbon reduction ratio, and also incorporates two new indicators, "benchmark marginal carbon reduction cost" and "carbon reduction index", into the evaluation system. There are 17 specific indicators, including nine economic benefit indicators, including annual average energy-saving income, annual average return on investment, industry benchmark marginal cost at carbon reduction ratio of 0.5%, 1.0% and 1.5%, annual maximum, minimum and average total emission reduction cost, and industry annual profit margin; and eight environmental benefit indicators, including carbon reduction index, annual maximum, minimum and average carbon reduction ratio, annual maximum, minimum and average carbon reduction potential of the industry, and annual average energy-saving potential of the industry.

3. The method for quantitative analysis of carbon reduction potential in high energy consumption industries according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The calculation formula for the economic benefit index in the carbon reduction potential assessment index of high energy-consuming industries is as follows: Nine indicators are selected to form the economic benefit system, and the calculation method of each indicator is as follows: (1) Industry annual profit margin The industry's annual profit rate refers to the ratio of the annual profit obtained by high-energy-consuming industries through production and operation activities within one year to their annual income. This indicator is used to measure the profitability of the industry and reflect its economic benefits in business operations. The specific values ​​can be found in the annual development reports of various industries. (2) Benchmark values ​​of marginal carbon reduction costs under different carbon reduction ratios According to the marginal emission reduction cost curves of various high-energy-consuming industries, the marginal emission reduction costs of various carbon reduction ratios are calculated. The fitting formula of the marginal emission reduction cost curve of high-energy-consuming industries is as follows: Where: R represents the emission reduction ratio, that is, the ratio of the industry’s emission reduction to the industry’s total CO2 emissions. Assuming that the industry’s total CO2 emissions are A Total , the industry emission reduction is C Total , the unit is 10,000 tons, then the emission reduction ratio is expressed as C Total / A Total , the unit is %, (3) Average annual return on investment For emission reduction technologies in various industries, the annual return on investment is defined as the ratio of the profit that the industry obtains each year from the capital invested in a certain emission reduction technology. This indicator is used to evaluate the capital utilization efficiency and investment return level of the industry, reflecting the relationship between the profit generated by the industry's annual operation and the initial investment. The mean is the average of the investment return rates of various emission reduction technologies selected by each industry. The calculation formula is as follows: Where: ROI AVR represents the average annual return on investment of the industry, in %; n represents the total number of emission reduction technologies screened by the industry; IC i It represents the annual income brought by emission reduction of technology i, in ten thousand yuan; IVC i represents the total investment cost of technology i, in ten thousand yuan, (4) Average annual energy saving benefits The mean is the average value of the energy-saving benefits of various emission reduction technologies selected by high-energy-consuming industries, and the calculation formula is as follows: (5) Average annual energy saving benefits The calculation formulas for the average, maximum and minimum annual emission reduction total costs are as follows: Where: TOER AVR ,TOER max and TOER min They represent the average, maximum and minimum annual emission reduction costs respectively, in ten thousand yuan; year represents the average investment period of the technology, which is 15 years.

4. The method for quantitative analysis of carbon reduction potential in high energy consumption industries according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation formula of the environmental benefit index in the carbon reduction potential assessment index of the high energy-consuming industry is as follows: Eight indicators constitute the environmental benefit assessment. The specific calculation method of each indicator is as follows: (1) Carbon Reduction Index In order to quantify the relationship between carbon emission reduction, total emission reduction and marginal carbon reduction cost in the process of implementing carbon reduction measures in high-energy-consuming industries, a carbon reduction index is defined to represent the environmental benefits of additional emission reduction achieved by the industry at a specific carbon emission level. The expression is as follows: Where: D represents the carbon reduction index; b represents the fitting parameter; C n Indicates the total annual carbon emissions of the industry, in 10,000 tons. (2) Average annual energy saving potential of the industry The calculation formula is as follows: Where: ESP AVR and ESP i They represent the average annual energy saving potential of the industry and the energy saving potential of technology i, both in tce. 3) Annual emission reduction potential of the industry The calculation formula is as follows: ERP max =max(ERP i ) (10) ERP min =min(ERP i ) (11) Where: ERP AVR , ERP max and ERP min They represent the average, maximum and minimum annual carbon reduction potential, in 10,000 tons. 4) Annual carbon reduction ratio of the industry The calculation formula is as follows: Where: CRR AVR ,CRR max and CRR min Respectively represent the average, maximum and minimum values ​​of annual carbon reduction ratio, in %; CR i It represents the annual carbon reduction of technology i, in 10,000 tons.

5. The method for quantitative analysis of carbon reduction potential in high energy consumption industries according to claim 1, characterized in that: The steps for using the analytic hierarchy process to comprehensively score the carbon reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries are as follows: (1) Determine the hierarchical model, In order to achieve a comprehensive evaluation of the emission reduction potential of high-energy-consuming industries, the hierarchical structure after AHP analysis is adopted. (2) Establish a judgment matrix, Taking the emission reduction potential analysis of high-energy-consuming industries as the research goal, the expert scoring method was applied to obtain the judgment matrix. (3) Consistency test and weight calculation Matlab R2022a was used to perform consistency test on the above judgment matrix, and the weights of each indicator in the established high-energy-consuming industry emission reduction potential analysis system can be calculated. After obtaining the weights, the judgment matrix needs to be tested for consistency. Matlab R2022a is still used to calculate the maximum eigenvalue, consistency index and consistency ratio of each judgment matrix.

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