Community fire-fighting toughness evaluation method and system based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP

Abstract

The invention discloses a community fire-fighting toughness evaluation method and system based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP, and the method comprises the steps: analyzing factors which affect the community fire-fighting toughness based on a disaster-adaptive toughness idea in combination with historical fire cases, and building a community fire-fighting toughness evaluation index system; a DEMATEL-ISM method is adopted to determine importance and causal attributes of community fire-fighting toughness evaluation indexes, a multi-level hierarchical structure model is constructed, and a hierarchical relationship among influence factors is determined; on the basis of the hierarchical relationship among the influence factors, the community fire-fighting toughness evaluation index weight is calculated by adopting ANP; and on the basis, a management and control scheme for community fire-fighting toughness evaluation is established. According to the method, key elements influencing the community fire-fighting toughness level and a hierarchical structure among the factors can be determined, a systematic community fire-fighting toughness evaluation and management and control method is established, and a scientific basis and an effective strategy are provided for community fire-fighting toughness construction.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of public safety technology, and more specifically relates to a community fire resilience assessment method and system based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP. Background Art

[0002] Scientifically assessing the level of community fire resilience and identifying the key influencing factors of community fire resilience are of great significance to reducing the occurrence of community fire accidents, protecting people's lives and reducing property losses. However, there are many factors that affect community fire resilience, and community fire resilience assessment faces many challenges, such as incomplete risk identification and lack of effectiveness of control measures. In particular, there are obvious deficiencies in identification and control in terms of fire awareness and self-rescue ability of community personnel, fire resistance and design layout of buildings, and the perfection of fire safety management. There is still a lack of an effective community fire resilience assessment method and system.

[0003] Existing community fire resilience assessment methods often focus on monitoring and analyzing the specific parameters of one or several factors such as fire equipment and facilities, ignoring the causal relationship and impact intensity between various factors in the community fire system. These factors are intertwined and the hierarchy is fuzzy, making it difficult to determine the key factors and their hierarchical structure, and it is impossible to clarify the degree of influence of each factor on the level of fire resilience. At the same time, the traditional indicator system relies on expert scoring in determining weights, which is highly subjective and does not consider the mutual influence and feedback mechanism between various factors, making it difficult to effectively promote relevant assessment methods and systems in practical applications. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a community fire resilience assessment method and system based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP. Based on the concept of disaster resilience and combined with historical fire cases, the factors affecting community fire resilience are analyzed, and a community fire resilience assessment index system is established from three aspects: personnel safety resilience, facility safety resilience and management safety resilience. The DEMATEL method is used to calculate the influence, influence, centrality and cause of the factors affecting community fire resilience, determine the importance and causal attributes of the community fire resilience assessment index, and use the ISM model to classify the influencing factors, clarify the relationship and hierarchical structure between the influencing factors, and combine ANP to calculate the weights of the influencing factors. Finally, a management and control plan for community fire resilience assessment is established to provide a scientific basis and effective strategy for community fire resilience construction.

[0005] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solution: the method comprises:

[0006] Establish a community fire resilience assessment indicator system and analyze the factors that affect community fire resilience;

[0007] A multi-level hierarchical model was constructed, and the decision laboratory analysis and interpretation structural model methods were used to determine the importance and causal properties of community fire resilience assessment indicators and clarify the hierarchical relationship between influencing factors;

[0008] According to DEMATEL, the influence, influence, centrality and causality of the factors affecting community fire resilience are calculated to determine the importance and causal properties of community fire resilience assessment indicators; by analyzing the overall influence matrix and reachability matrix, the influencing factors are divided into levels to clarify the hierarchical relationship between the influencing factors;

[0009] Based on the hierarchical relationship between the influencing factors, the network analysis method is used to calculate the weight of the community fire resilience assessment index;

[0010] A judgment matrix is ​​constructed through the hierarchical relationship of the influencing factors, and a consistency check is performed to construct an unweighted supermatrix, a weighted supermatrix is ​​calculated based on the unweighted supermatrix, and then a limit supermatrix is ​​calculated to obtain the weights of the influencing factors;

[0011] Based on the DEMATEL-ISM method and the ANP model analysis results, a management and control plan for community fire resilience assessment is established.

[0012] In one plan, the factors affecting community fire resilience include three aspects: personnel safety resilience, facility safety resilience, and management safety resilience, and a community fire resilience assessment index system was established.

[0013] In one embodiment, the construction of a multi-level hierarchical model includes:

[0014] The initial direct impact matrix Z of the impact degree between the community fire resilience assessment indicators is constructed, and the expression is:

[0015]

[0016] Among them, a ij Representation factor X i X j The degree of influence of ij =0;

[0017] Normalize the initial direct influence matrix Z to obtain the canonical influence matrix B; the canonical influence matrix is ​​used to ensure the convergence of subsequent operations, and the expression is:

[0018]

[0019] Calculate the comprehensive impact matrix T; the comprehensive impact matrix is ​​to further analyze the dimensions of each indicator, and the expression is:

[0020]

[0021] Where E is the identity matrix, t ij Represents the elements of the comprehensive impact matrix T;

[0022] Calculate the influence D i The influence degree refers to the direct influence of one factor on other factors, and the corresponding expression is:

[0023]

[0024] Calculate the influence C i The degree of influence refers to the degree to which an element is affected by other elements, and the corresponding expression is:

[0025]

[0026] Calculate the centrality M i The centrality is a measure of the importance of an element in the system, which is obtained by adding the influence and the influence. The larger the centrality, the more important the position of the element in the system, and the higher the degree of association with other elements. The corresponding expression is:

[0027] M i =D i +C i , i=1,2,3...,n

[0028] Calculate the causal degree R i ; The causality refers to whether an element is more likely to be a cause or a result in the system, and the corresponding expression is:

[0029] R i =D i -C i , i=1,2,3...,n

[0030] Calculate the overall influence matrix H, the expression is:

[0031] H=T+E

[0032] Where E is the identity matrix;

[0033] Calculate the reachable matrix K. By setting the threshold λ, remove the indicators whose influence degree is lower than the preset threshold in the overall influence matrix, and obtain the reachable matrix K as follows:

[0034]

[0035] Among them, k ij Represents the elements of the reachable matrix K;

[0036] Determine the reachable set K and the predecessor set Q; the reachable set reflects all the elements that a certain element can directly or indirectly affect in the system, and the predecessor set reflects all the elements that can directly or indirectly affect a certain element in the system; determine the level according to K∩Q, and draw the ISM diagram based on the regional and inter-level decomposition results.

[0037] In one embodiment, the factors affecting community fire resilience include influence, influence, centrality, and causality.

[0038] The elements are divided into two parts: the control factor layer and the network layer; the control factor layer includes the overall goal of the study and the decision criteria, and its elements are p1, p2, ..., p s ,…,p m ; All decision criteria are independent of each other and are only influenced by the overall research goal; the network layer is composed of all factors affected by the control factor layer, and its elements are c1, c2, ..., c i , …, c n , where c i Contains element e i1 , e i2 ,…,e ik ,…,e in , the relationship between the elements is not like the independence of the criteria between the control factor layers, but rather they influence, depend on and dominate each other;

[0039] Use the expert scoring method and the nine-point method to compare the importance of related indicators or indicator groups to obtain the ANP judgment matrix;

[0040] Calculate the unweighted super matrix; Calculate the normalized eigenvectors of each judgment matrix The results are summarized into a matrix, which is the unweighted supermatrix:

[0041]

[0042] Calculate the weight supermatrix; for the element group e jk The importance of is compared pairwise, and the weight matrix V is obtained as follows:

[0043]

[0044] Calculate the weighted supermatrix; add the weight matrix V to the unweighted supermatrix W ij Multiply them together to get the weighted super matrix

[0045]

[0046] Calculate the limit supermatrix; by Perform matrix square operation to get the two-step dominance, and so on, perform cubic, quartic, ..., n-th power operation to get 3, 4, ..., n-step dominance; when the iterative operation tends to infinity, the limit supermatrix W is obtained ∞ :

[0047]

[0048] The value in each row of the matrix is ​​the weight vector of the corresponding element. After sorting, the weight value of each influencing factor in the system is obtained.

[0049] In one scheme, after the relative weights of the indicators are determined, a consistency check needs to be performed according to the following formula. If CR is greater than 1, it means that the judgment matrix is ​​not consistent and the judgment matrix should be adjusted appropriately. On the contrary, if CR is less than 0.1, the consistency check is passed, and the relative weights of the indicators are determined;

[0050] CR=CI / RI<0.1

[0051] Among them, CR stands for consistency ratio, CI stands for consistency index, and RI stands for random consistency index.

[0052] In one solution, the degree of influence between the indicators is quantified into four levels, including strong correlation, medium correlation, weak correlation and no direct influence relationship, and values ​​are assigned to them, corresponding to 3, 2, 1 and 0 respectively.

[0053] In another aspect, a community fire resilience assessment system based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP is provided, wherein the system is applicable to the method described, and the system comprises:

[0054] The indicator system construction module is based on the concept of disaster resilience and combines historical fire cases to analyze the factors affecting community fire resilience and establish an indicator system for evaluating community fire resilience;

[0055] The factor hierarchical division module uses the DEMATEL-ISM method to determine the importance and causal properties of community fire resilience assessment indicators, build a multi-level hierarchical structure model, and clarify the hierarchical relationship between influencing factors;

[0056] An ANP calculation weight module, which uses ANP to calculate the weight of the community fire resilience assessment index based on the hierarchical relationship between the influencing factors;

[0057] The control plan establishment module establishes a control plan for community fire resilience assessment based on the DEMATEL-ISM method and the ANP model analysis results.

[0058] Beneficial effects of the present invention:

[0059] The method of the present invention has the advantages of enhanced comprehensive evaluation capabilities, improved evaluation efficiency, optimized decision support functions, improved adaptability and scalability, and intelligence, and can effectively improve the level of community fire resilience. By introducing the DEMATEL method, this method effectively identifies the impact intensity between various influencing factors of community fire resilience, and deeply analyzes the causal properties between them. At the same time, combined with the application of ISM, it further reveals the hierarchy and dependency relationship between these influencing factors, making the logical relationship between the influencing factors clear. In addition, the introduction of ANP further considers the network relationship and nonlinear influence between the influencing factors, obtains the weight of each influencing factor, and provides a clear direction for formulating effective management and control plans. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0060] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a community fire resilience assessment method based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0061] Figure 2 This is a community fire resilience assessment index system diagram of an embodiment of the present invention.

[0062] Figure 3 4 is a diagram of the calculated values ​​of the centrality and the causal degree according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0063] Figure 4 It is a schematic diagram of the ISM hierarchy relationship of an embodiment of the present invention.

[0064] Figure 5 It is a community fire resilience assessment index system and weight diagram of an embodiment of the present invention.

[0065] Figure 6 It is a schematic diagram of the structural composition of a community fire resilience assessment system based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0066] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solution of the present invention is described clearly and completely below. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0067] Example 1

[0068] like Figure 1 As shown, the community fire resilience assessment method based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP in this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0069] Step S1: Based on the concept of disaster resilience and combined with historical fire cases, analyze the factors affecting community fire resilience and establish a community fire resilience assessment index system;

[0070] The factors that affect community fire resilience include: personnel safety resilience, facility safety resilience, and management safety resilience. A community fire resilience assessment index system has been established.

[0071] Step S2, using the DEMATEL-ISM method, determine the importance and causal attributes of community fire resilience assessment indicators, build a multi-level hierarchical model, and clarify the hierarchical relationship between influencing factors;

[0072] According to DEMATEL, the influence, influence, centrality and causality of the factors affecting community fire resilience are calculated to determine the importance and causal properties of community fire resilience assessment indicators; by analyzing the overall influence matrix and reachability matrix, the influencing factors are divided into levels to clarify the hierarchical relationship between the influencing factors;

[0073] Step S3, based on the hierarchical relationship between the influencing factors, using ANP to calculate the weight of the community fire resilience assessment index;

[0074] A judgment matrix is ​​constructed through the hierarchical relationship of the influencing factors, and a consistency check is performed to construct an unweighted supermatrix, a weighted supermatrix is ​​calculated based on the unweighted supermatrix, and then a limit supermatrix is ​​calculated to obtain the weights of the influencing factors;

[0075] Step S4: establishing a management and control plan for community fire resilience assessment based on the DEMATEL-ISM method and the ANP model analysis results.

[0076] It should be noted that in order to complete the collection, cleaning and storage of data related to factors affecting community fire resilience, this study collected 146 domestic community-related fire accident investigation reports, analyzed the causes of the accidents, the occurrence and development process, etc., preliminarily clarified the whole chain process of community fire evolution, and formed an accident case data set. At the same time, we visited the community to understand the emergency rescue situation, clarified the key elements of community fire prevention and control and emergency rescue, further understood the key and difficult points of community fire prevention and control, and mastered the level of grassroots fire management. The data analysis and interview results were summarized and sorted out, and the factors affecting the level of community fire resilience were studied and analyzed from three aspects: personnel safety resilience, facility safety resilience, and management safety resilience. A community fire resilience assessment index system was established, including 10 third-level indicators and 39 fourth-level indicators.

[0077] like Figure 2As shown in the figure, personnel safety resilience, facility safety resilience and management safety resilience are the main factors affecting community fire resilience; the main influencing factors of community fire resilience at the personnel safety resilience level include basic population attributes, safety level, participation preparation, etc.; in addition to the influencing factors of community personnel themselves, community facility safety resilience also produces new influencing factors including construction projects, fire protection facilities and equipment, emergency support facilities, and other facilities; in addition, the influencing factors at the community management safety resilience level, such as management system construction, prevention and response, support and guarantee investment, etc., are also important influencing factors affecting community fire resilience.

[0078] After establishing the community fire resilience assessment index system, the process of determining the importance of community fire resilience assessment indicators and the hierarchical relationship between causal attributes and influencing factors specifically includes:

[0079] Based on the factors affecting community fire resilience determined in step S1, the mutual influence relationship between the factors is described. The degree of influence between the indicators is quantified into 4 levels, including strong correlation, medium correlation, weak correlation and no direct influence relationship, and they are assigned values ​​​​corresponding to 3, 2, 1, and 0 respectively. Using the expert scoring method, the number of expert scores is established in the form of an n×n matrix to construct a direct influence matrix between influencing factors. For the resilience factor index system established by the present invention, the row and column elements of the direct influence matrix are the four-level indicators shown in Table 1, that is, a 39×39 direct influence matrix Z is established:

[0080]

[0081] Normalize the initial direct influence matrix Z, divide each influencing factor by the maximum value of the sum of the influencing factors in each row, and obtain the standard influence matrix B; the standard influence matrix is ​​to ensure the convergence of subsequent operations, and the expression is:

[0082]

[0083] Determine the comprehensive influence matrix from the normalized direct influence matrix. Multiply the normalized direct influence matrix B obtained in the previous step by itself n times, and add these n+1 matrices to get the comprehensive influence matrix T:

[0084]

[0085] According to the comprehensive influence matrix, the influence, influence, centrality and causality of each influencing factor are determined. The centrality and causality are determined by the influence and influence of the system factors. The influence indicates the degree of influence of the factor on other factors, and the influence indicates the degree of influence of the factor by other factors. The calculation formulas of the influence and influence are as follows:

[0086]

[0087]

[0088] The centrality is a measure of the importance of an element in the system, which is obtained by adding the influence and the influence. The larger the centrality, the more important the position of the element in the system, and the higher the degree of association with other elements. The corresponding expression is:

[0089] M i =D i +C i , i=1,2,3...,n

[0090] The causal degree refers to whether an element is more inclined to be a cause or a result in the system. It is obtained by subtracting the influence degree from the influence degree. When the causal degree is a positive number, it means that the element is more inclined to be a cause in the system, that is, its influence on other elements is greater than the influence of other elements; when the causal degree is a negative number, it means that the element is more inclined to be a result in the system, that is, it is influenced by other elements more than its influence on other elements. The corresponding expression is:

[0091] R i =D i -C i , i=1,2,3...,n

[0092] Table 1 shows the results of the DEMATEL model with high centrality. It should be noted that in this embodiment, considering the large number of factors, only the top 6 factors with the highest centrality are shown. As can be seen from Table 1, whether a post-disaster equipment maintenance and replenishment system is formulated C15, whether a micro fire station is established B31, whether a post-disaster resident resettlement system is formulated C14, whether the fire safety system is sound C11, the number of firefighters in the community (per thousand people in the community) A31, and the coverage rate of smart fire equipment C25 have a large centrality. These factors have a more important position in the system and are more closely related to other factors.

[0093] Table 1 Results of DEMATEL model with high centrality

[0094]

[0095]

[0096] In order to more intuitively see the relationship between the factors affecting resilience, the centrality and causality coordinates are as follows Figure 3As shown in the figure, among them, the density of permanent population, residents' fire safety quality, residents' fire-using methods and habits, residents' escape ability, the number of firefighters in the community (per thousand people in the community), whether the fire separation in the building meets the specifications, the degree of aging of electrical lines, fire load density, the width and smoothness of evacuation passages and safety exits, whether emergency evacuation lighting and evacuation signs can be used normally, whether the configuration of fire-fighting facilities and equipment meets the standards, whether fire-fighting facilities and equipment are used normally, whether the fire truck passage is occupied, whether a micro fire station is established, the number of beds in medical and health institutions (per thousand people in the community), the number of fire brigades that can reach the community within 5 minutes, whether the charging facilities are installed in accordance with the specifications, whether the fire safety system is sound, whether a post-disaster resident resettlement system is formulated, whether a post-disaster equipment maintenance and replenishment system is formulated, and the coverage rate of smart fire-fighting equipment are more inclined to be causes; while the remaining resilience influencing factors are more inclined to be results.

[0097] Since the DEMATEL algorithm assumes that a factor itself has no effect on itself, this default setting is contrary to the ISM setting idea. Therefore, the comprehensive influence matrix T obtained in step 3 is processed, and the comprehensive influence matrix T is added with an n-order unit matrix E to obtain a new overall influence matrix H, so that the DEMATEL and ISM methods can be integrated and the subsequent steps can be calculated. The calculation of the matrix H is as follows:

[0098] H=T+E

[0099] Where E is the identity matrix;

[0100] The threshold set is obtained by removing zeros and duplicates from all elements in the overall impact matrix. In the uncertain explanatory structural model, when the uncertain value is represented by a measure, it can be processed by the idea of ​​clamping. The clamping idea defines polarization when processing the uncertain matrix, and the operation is to take the intercept. Through a large number of experiments and combined with expert evaluation opinions, the present invention finally determines that the threshold λ is 0.03, sets the values ​​greater than or equal to λ in the matrix to 1, and sets the values ​​less than λ to 0, thereby obtaining a reachable matrix.

[0101] After calculating the reachable matrix M, MATLAB software was used to classify the influencing factors of community fire resilience in the reachable matrix M. The top-level influencing factors represent the deep factors that affect community fire resilience, and the influence of the influencing factors at the lower levels decreases. The index classification results are shown in the following table.

[0102] Table 2 Index classification results

[0103] Level 1 Elements A22 A31 B32 C14 C15 C25 Level 2 Elements A11 A23 B13 B16 B17 B18 B21 B22 B23 B33 Level 3 Elements A12 B31 C11 Level 4 Elements A21 B15 B41 Level 5 Elements B42 C13 C18 C19 C31 Level 6 Elements B11 C12 C16 C17 C21 C22 C23 C24 C26 Level 7 Elements A32 B12 B14

[0104] According to the above analysis, based on the index stratification results, the ISM hierarchical relationship diagram is established as follows: Figure 4 As shown. Figure 4It can be seen that the system of factors influencing community fire resilience is a multi-dimensional and multi-level complex system. It has seven basic levels. Each level carries different influencing factors that work together on the community's fire resilience level.

[0105] The first level, the surface factor level, covers six key indicators, such as residents' fire-use methods and habits (A22), the number of firefighters in the community (per 1,000 people in the community) (A31), which directly reflect the current status of the community's fire resilience level. Among them, the number of beds in medical and health institutions (per 1,000 people in the community) (B32) is an important factor affecting the efficiency of rescue when a fire occurs. In addition, whether a post-disaster resident resettlement system is formulated (C14), whether a post-disaster equipment maintenance and replenishment system is formulated (C15), and the coverage rate of smart firefighting equipment (C25) are also important yardsticks for measuring the level of community fire resilience.

[0106] The second to sixth levels, as transition factor levels, include 30 indicators. Although they do not directly affect the level of fire resilience, they play an indirect role by affecting the indicators of the surface factor level. For example, the proportion of vulnerable population (A12) and residents' fire safety quality (A21) determine the residents' ability to save themselves in a fire; whether the fire separation in the building complies with the regulations (B13) and the degree of aging of electrical lines (B15) affect the probability of fire and the speed of its spread. In addition, the frequency of emergency plan drills (C24) and the maintenance frequency of firefighting facilities and equipment (C17) are also an indispensable part of improving the level of community fire resilience.

[0107] The seventh level, the deep factor level, includes three core indicators that have a profound impact on all other factors. The proportion of qualified firefighters (A32) determines the community's emergency response capabilities when a fire occurs; whether the fire separation distance meets the specifications (B12) and whether the fire resistance level of building or decoration materials meets the specifications (B14) reflect the overall level of the community in terms of construction. Controlling these fundamental factors can improve the community's fire resilience level from the source and provide a more solid guarantee for the safety of residents' lives and property.

[0108] After obtaining the hierarchical relationship of community fire resilience assessment indicators, the process of obtaining the weights of community fire resilience assessment indicators specifically includes:

[0109] Use SuperDecisions to build the ANP network structure.

[0110] It should be noted that the ANP network structure model divides the elements into two parts: the control factor layer and the network layer. The control factor layer includes the overall goal of the study and the decision criteria, and its elements are p1, p2, ..., p s ,…,pm ; All decision criteria are independent of each other and are only influenced by the overall research goal; the network layer is composed of all factors affected by the control factor layer, and its elements are c1, c2, ..., c i , …, c n , where c i Contains element e i1 , e i2 ,…,e ik ,…,e in The relationship between the elements is not independent of each other like the criteria between the control factor layers, but they influence, depend on and dominate each other.

[0111] After determining the ANP network structure relationship of the influencing factors, experts compared the relative importance of each pair of influencing factors through the Delphi method to obtain the ANP judgment matrix, and used Super decisions3.0 software to calculate the unweighted super matrix, weighted super matrix, and extreme super matrix.

[0112] Calculate the normalized eigenvectors of the judgment matrices The results are summarized into a matrix, which is the unweighted supermatrix W:

[0113]

[0114] Calculate the weight supermatrix; for the element group e jk The importance of is compared pairwise, and the weight matrix V is obtained as follows:

[0115]

[0116] The weight matrix V is combined with the unweighted super matrix W ij Multiply them together to get the weighted super matrix

[0117]

[0118] By weighting the super matrix Performing matrix square operation can get the 2-step dominance, and so on, performing cubic, quartic, ..., n-th power operation can get 3, 4, ..., n-step dominance. When the iterative operation tends to infinity, the limit supermatrix W is obtained. ∞ :

[0119]

[0120] The value of each row in the matrix is ​​the weight vector of the corresponding element. After sorting, the weight value of each influencing factor in the system is obtained, and the weight of each indicator is obtained. Figure 5 The weight results of community fire resilience assessment indicators are given. Figure 5It can be seen that the weight of management safety resilience accounts for a large proportion in the weight proportion of the secondary indicators, which shows that management is very important in community fire resilience; the weight of management system construction accounts for a large proportion in the third-level indicators under management safety resilience, and management system construction, as the cornerstone of the entire management, needs to be paid attention to; the weight of whether the fire safety system is sound accounts for a large proportion in the fourth-level indicators under management system construction, and the fire safety system is of great significance in ensuring the safety of life and property of community residents and maintaining community stability.

[0121] It should be noted that after calculating the relative weights of the indicators, a consistency check is required according to the following formula. If CR is greater than 1, it means that the judgment matrix is ​​not consistent and the judgment matrix should be adjusted appropriately. On the contrary, if CR is less than 0.1, the consistency check is passed, and the relative weights of the indicators are determined.

[0122] CR=CI / RI<0.1

[0123] Among them, CR stands for consistency ratio, CI stands for consistency index, and RI stands for random consistency index; the process of formulating the control plan for community fire resilience assessment specifically includes:

[0124] Based on the indicators determined by the DEMATEL-ISM, combined with the indicator weights determined by the ANP, and with reference to existing standards, policy documents, etc., it is formulated from three aspects: personnel safety resilience assessment, facility safety resilience assessment, and management safety resilience assessment;

[0125] In the process of conducting community fire resilience assessment, the resilience assessment of construction projects and fire protection facilities and equipment should be based on a single residential building as a unit. After evaluating multiple buildings, the average value should be taken to reflect the overall resilience level of construction projects and fire protection facilities and equipment in the community. For personnel safety resilience assessment, the community should be used as a unit to find residents of different ages in the community to distribute questionnaires or conduct exchanges and interviews to understand the fire safety awareness levels of residents of different age groups in the community. For indicators such as management safety resilience assessment and emergency support facility resilience assessment, they should mainly connect with different management departments in the community (such as property management departments, community neighborhood committees), review safety systems related to community fire protection, maintenance records of fire protection facilities and equipment, emergency plan drill records, fire safety training records, etc., and clarify the community's resilience level in fire safety management and emergency support.

[0126] Example 2

[0127] This embodiment provides a community fire resilience assessment system based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP based on Embodiment 1, such as Figure 6 FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of the composition of the system disclosed in this embodiment, and the system includes:

[0128] The indicator system construction module is based on the concept of disaster resilience and combines historical fire cases to analyze the factors affecting community fire resilience and establish an indicator system for evaluating community fire resilience;

[0129] The factor hierarchical division module uses the DEMATEL-ISM method to determine the importance and causal properties of community fire resilience assessment indicators, build a multi-level hierarchical structure model, and clarify the hierarchical relationship between influencing factors;

[0130] An ANP calculation weight module, which uses ANP to calculate the weight of the community fire resilience assessment index based on the hierarchical relationship between the influencing factors;

[0131] The control plan establishment module establishes a control plan for community fire resilience assessment based on the DEMATEL-ISM method and the ANP model analysis results.

[0132] It should be noted that, based on the above DEMATEL-ISM and ANP analysis results, a community fire resilience management plan was developed, including three aspects: personnel safety resilience, facility safety resilience, and management safety resilience;

[0133] In terms of basic population attributes, it is necessary to understand the population distribution in the community, assess the pressure of personnel evacuation and the demand for fire-fighting resources when a fire occurs, and provide a basis for formulating reasonable fire-fighting plans and emergency plans. In addition, it is necessary to clarify the proportion of people in the community who need special attention, so as to formulate targeted protection measures and emergency plans in fire-fighting work and ensure the safety of vulnerable groups in fires; in terms of fire safety levels, it is necessary to actively measure the fire safety awareness and ability levels of community residents, provide direction for fire publicity, education and training, and improve the overall fire safety level of the community. It is also necessary to reduce the fire risks caused by bad fire-using methods and habits, guide residents to develop good fire-using habits, and enhance fire prevention capabilities; in terms of participation and preparation, it is necessary to reflect the allocation of community fire human resources, provide reference for strengthening the construction of fire brigades, ensure the smooth development of community fire safety work, and evaluate the professional level of community fire brigades. By increasing the proportion of qualified personnel, the quality and efficiency of fire-fighting work can be improved, and the resilience of community fire fighting can be enhanced.

[0134] In terms of construction projects, we understand the overall age distribution of community houses, assess the potential risks of old houses in the event of a fire, provide a basis for the targeted development of fire protection renovation and management measures for old houses, and ensure that there is sufficient fire separation distance between buildings in compliance with regulations to prevent the spread of fire between buildings and ensure space for personnel evacuation and fire rescue; in terms of fire protection facilities and equipment, we ensure that the community is equipped with complete and standard fire protection facilities and equipment, provide necessary hardware support for fire prevention and fighting, and ensure that fire protection facilities and equipment can operate normally at critical moments to play their due fire protection role and improve the community's ability to respond to fires. Capabilities; in terms of emergency support facilities, the establishment of micro fire stations can respond quickly to fires in the early stages, carry out fire fighting and personnel evacuation. The establishment of micro fire stations will help improve the community's self-defense and self-rescue capabilities. In addition, understand the community's medical treatment and support capabilities when responding to emergencies such as fires, reasonably plan and allocate medical resources, and ensure that the injured can receive timely treatment; in terms of other facilities, ensure that the installation of standardized charging facilities can reduce fire accidents caused by charging, protect the lives and property of community residents, and prevent fire hazards caused by the illegal addition of facilities, maintain the community's fire safety environment, and ensure the rationality of the community's fire planning and layout.

[0135] In terms of management system construction, it is necessary to ensure that the community has a sound system to regulate and guide fire protection work, provide institutional guarantees for fire management, and reduce the risk of fire. In addition, the implementation of fire safety responsibilities can ensure that fire protection work is managed and everyone is responsible, avoid unclear responsibilities, buck-passing, etc., improve the efficiency and effectiveness of community fire safety management, and ensure the smooth development of community fire safety work; in terms of prevention and response, through regular fire prevention inspections, timely discover and eliminate fire hazards, reduce the risk of fire, and protect the lives and property of community residents. Evaluating this indicator will help urge the community to strengthen fire prevention inspections, improve the quality of inspections, ensure the stability of the community fire safety situation, and ensure that fire hazards are rectified in a timely and effective manner to prevent them from evolving into fire accidents. Assessing the hidden danger rectification rate can supervise the community in fulfilling its rectification responsibilities, improve the rectification rate of fire hazards, and enhance the actual effect of community fire safety; in terms of participation preparation, sufficient investment in fire safety funds is an important material basis for ensuring the smooth development of community fire protection work. It is necessary to understand the community's emphasis on fire safety work and its financial guarantee capabilities, urge the community to arrange funds reasonably, ensure the smooth progress of various tasks such as fire protection facility construction, maintenance and management, and improve the material support level of community fire resilience.

[0136] The specific implementation methods described above further illustrate the objectives, technical solutions and beneficial effects of the present invention in detail. It should be understood that the above description is only a specific implementation method of the present invention and is not intended to limit the scope of protection of the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A community fire resilience assessment method based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP, characterized by: The method includes: Establish a community fire resilience assessment indicator system and analyze the factors that affect community fire resilience; A multi-level hierarchical model was constructed, and the decision laboratory analysis and interpretation structural model methods were used to determine the importance and causal properties of community fire resilience assessment indicators and clarify the hierarchical relationship between influencing factors; According to DEMATEL, the influence, influence, centrality and causality of the factors affecting community fire resilience are calculated to determine the importance and causal properties of community fire resilience assessment indicators; by analyzing the overall influence matrix and reachability matrix, the influencing factors are divided into levels to clarify the hierarchical relationship between the influencing factors; Based on the hierarchical relationship between the influencing factors, a network structure model is determined, and the weights of the community fire resilience assessment index are calculated using a network analysis method; A judgment matrix is ​​constructed through the hierarchical relationship of the influencing factors, and a consistency check is performed to construct an unweighted supermatrix, a weighted supermatrix is ​​calculated based on the unweighted supermatrix, and then a limit supermatrix is ​​calculated to obtain the weights of the influencing factors; Based on the analysis results of the DEMATEL-ISM method and ANP model, a management and control plan for community fire resilience assessment is established.

2. A community fire resilience assessment method based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP according to claim 1, characterized in that: The factors affecting community fire resilience include three aspects: personnel safety resilience, facility safety resilience and management safety resilience. A community fire resilience assessment index system has been established.

3. The community fire resilience assessment method based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP according to claim 1 is characterized by: The construction of the multi-level hierarchical structure model includes: The initial direct impact matrix Z of the impact degree between the community fire resilience assessment indicators is constructed, and the expression is: Among them, a ij Representation factor X i X j The degree of influence of ij =0; Normalize the initial direct influence matrix Z to obtain the standard influence matrix B; the standard influence matrix is ​​to ensure the convergence of subsequent operations, and the expression is: Calculate the comprehensive impact matrix T; the comprehensive impact matrix is ​​to further analyze the dimensions of each indicator, and the expression is: Where E is the identity matrix, t ij Represents the elements of the comprehensive impact matrix T; Calculate the influence D i The influence degree refers to the direct influence of one factor on other factors, and the corresponding expression is: Calculate the influence C i The degree of influence refers to the degree to which an element is affected by other elements, and the corresponding expression is: Calculate the centrality M i The centrality is a measure of the importance of an element in the system, which is obtained by adding the influence and the influence. The larger the centrality, the more important the position of the element in the system, and the higher the degree of association with other elements. The corresponding expression is: M i =D i +C i ,i=1,2,3...,n Calculate the causal degree R i ; The causality refers to whether an element is more likely to be a cause or a result in the system, and the corresponding expression is: R i =D i -C i ,i=1,2,3...,n Calculate the overall influence matrix H, the expression is: H=T+E Where E is the identity matrix; Calculate the reachable matrix K. By setting the threshold λ, remove the indicators whose influence degree is lower than the preset threshold in the overall influence matrix, and obtain the reachable matrix K as follows: Among them, k ij Represents the elements of the reachable matrix K; Determine the reachable set K and the predecessor set Q; the reachable set reflects all the elements that a certain element can directly or indirectly affect in the system, and the predecessor set reflects all the elements that can directly or indirectly affect a certain element in the system; determine the level according to K∩Q, and draw the ISM diagram based on the regional and inter-level decomposition results.

4. The community fire resilience assessment method based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP according to claim 1, characterized in that: The network structure model divides the elements into two parts: the control factor layer and the network layer; The control factor layer includes the overall goal of the study and the decision criteria, and its elements are p1, p2, ..., p s ,…,p m ; All decision criteria are independent of each other and are only influenced by the overall research goal; the network layer is composed of all factors affected by the control factor layer, and its elements are c1, c2, ..., c i , …, c n , where c i Contains element e i1 , e i2 ,…,e ik ,…,e in , the relationship between the elements is not like the independence of the criteria between the control factor layers, but rather they influence, depend on and dominate each other; Use the expert scoring method and the nine-point method to compare the importance of related indicators or indicator groups to obtain the ANP judgment matrix; Calculate the unweighted super matrix; Calculate the normalized eigenvectors of each judgment matrix The results are summarized into a matrix, which is the unweighted supermatrix: Calculate the weight supermatrix; for the element group e jk The importance of is compared pairwise, and the weight matrix V is obtained as follows: Calculate the weighted supermatrix; add the weight matrix V to the unweighted supermatrix W ij Multiply them together to get the weighted super matrix Calculate the limit supermatrix; by Perform matrix square operation to get the two-step dominance, and so on, perform cubic, quartic, ..., n-th power operation to get 3, 4, ..., n-step dominance; when the iterative operation tends to infinity, the limit supermatrix W is obtained ∞ : The value in each row of the matrix is ​​the weight vector of the corresponding element. After sorting, the weight value of each influencing factor in the system is obtained.

5. The community fire resilience assessment method based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP according to claim 1, characterized in that: After the relative weights of the indicators are determined, a consistency test needs to be performed according to the following formula. If CR is greater than 1, it means that the judgment matrix is ​​not consistent and the judgment matrix should be adjusted appropriately. On the contrary, if CR is less than 0.1, the consistency test is passed, and the relative weights of the indicators are determined. CR=CI / RI<0.1 Among them, CR stands for consistency ratio, CI stands for consistency index, and RI stands for random consistency index.

6. The community fire resilience assessment method based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP according to claim 1, characterized in that: The influence degree between the above indicators is quantified into 4 levels, including strong correlation, medium correlation, weak correlation and no direct influence relationship, and values ​​are assigned to them, corresponding to 3, 2, 1 and 0 respectively.

7. A community fire resilience assessment system based on DEMATEL-ISM and ANP, the system being applicable to the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6, characterized in that: The system comprises: The indicator system construction module is based on the concept of disaster resilience and combines historical fire cases to analyze the factors affecting community fire resilience and establish an indicator system for evaluating community fire resilience; The factor hierarchical division module uses the DEMATEL-ISM method to determine the importance and causal properties of community fire resilience assessment indicators, build a multi-level hierarchical structure model, and clarify the hierarchical relationship between influencing factors; An ANP calculation weight module, which uses ANP to calculate the weight of the community fire resilience assessment index based on the hierarchical relationship between the influencing factors; The control plan establishment module establishes a control plan for community fire resilience assessment based on the DEMATEL-ISM method and the ANP model analysis results.

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